TEDGlobal 2010
Dan Cobley: What physics taught me about marketing
丹‧柯布利: 物理教我有關行銷的事
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物理和行銷，乍看來無啥共同點，但丹‧柯布利對兩者都充滿熱情。他把看似南轅北轍的兩者結合起來，運用牛頓的第二定律、海森堡的不定原理、科學方法和熱力學第二定律，說明品牌經營的基本理論。
Dan Cobley - Online marketing whiz
Dan Cobley is a marketing director at Google, where he connects customers and businesses, helping both navigate digital space to find what they need. Full bio
Dan Cobley is a marketing director at Google, where he connects customers and businesses, helping both navigate digital space to find what they need. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
So I work in marketing, which I love,
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我的工作是行銷，我也樂在其中。
00:18
but my first passion was physics,
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而物理是我最初的摯愛。
00:21
a passion brought to me by a wonderful school teacher,
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當年在學校裏，有個很棒的老師，他燃起了我對物理的熱情，
00:24
when I had a little less gray hair.
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當年的我，沒這麼多白頭髮。
00:27
So he taught me
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他告訴我，
00:29
that physics is cool
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物理很酷，
00:31
because it teaches us so much about the world around us.
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它教我們很多有關這個世界的事。
00:33
And I'm going to spend the next few minutes trying to convince you
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接下來的幾分鐘裏，我要讓各位相信，
00:36
that physics can teach us something about marketing.
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物理其實可以教我們一些有關行銷的事。
00:39
So quick show of hands --
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我先做個小調查，
00:41
who studied some marketing in university?
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這裏有人在大學裏修過行銷嗎?
00:43
Who studied some physics in university?
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有人在大學裏修過物理嗎?
00:45
Pretty good. And at school?
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噢，還不錯。中學的時候呢?
00:47
Okay, lots of you.
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好，看來還不少。
00:49
So, hopefully this will bring back some happy,
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那麼，希望這能讓你們回想起一些快樂的，
00:51
or possibly some slightly disturbing memories.
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或是讓人感到有點混亂的往事。
00:54
So, physics and marketing.
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好的，物理和行銷:
00:58
We'll start with something very simple -- Newton's Law:
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我們先從簡單的開始，先看牛頓定律:
01:00
"The force equals mass times acceleration."
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力等於質量乘以加速度
01:03
This is something that perhaps Turkish Airlines
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土耳其航空也許應該
01:05
should have studied a bit more carefully
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先好好地學學這個定律，
01:08
before they ran this campaign.
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然後再推出這個行銷活動。
01:10
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
01:13
But if we rearrange this formula quickly,
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如果我們很快地重組這個方程式，
01:16
we can get to acceleration equals force over mass,
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我們可以得出，加速度等於力除以質量，
01:19
which means
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也就是說
01:21
that for a larger particle -- a larger mass --
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對質量比較大的物體而言，
01:24
it requires more force to change its direction.
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要改變它的方向，需要更大的力。
01:28
It's the same with brands:
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品牌也是一樣的 。
01:30
the more massive a brand, the more baggage it has,
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愈是重量級的品牌，包袱也愈重。
01:33
the more force is needed to change its positioning.
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所以就會需要更大的力，才能改變它的行銷定位。
01:36
And that's one of the reasons why
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這就是為什麼
01:38
Arthur Andersen chose to launch Accenture
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亞瑟‧安德森(Arthur Andersen)選擇創立埃森哲(Accenture)公司，
01:41
rather than try to persuade the world
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因為他不想費力要大家相信，
01:43
that Andersen's could stand for something
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安德森(Andersen)這塊招牌
01:45
other than accountancy.
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代表的不只是會計專業。
01:47
It explains why Hoover
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這也是為什麼胡佛(Hoover)公司發現
01:49
found it very difficult to persuade the world
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要說服大家，胡佛不只賣吸塵器
01:51
that it was more than vacuum cleaners,
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不太容易。
01:53
and why companies like Unilever and P&G
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還有，像聯合利華(Unilever )和寶鹼(P&G)這些公司
01:56
keep brands separate,
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選擇保有獨立的品牌，
01:58
like Ariel and Pringles and Dove
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奧力奧(Oreo)、品客(Pringle)和多芬(Dove)也是一樣，
02:01
rather than having one giant parent brand.
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這些公司都不想經營一個大型的統一品牌。
02:05
So the physics is that the bigger the mass of an object
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所以啦，物理定律說，物體質量愈大，
02:08
the more force is needed
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就需要愈大的力量，
02:10
to change its direction.
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才能改變物體行進的方向。
02:12
The marketing is, the bigger a brand,
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行銷也是如此，品牌愈大
02:14
the more difficult it is to reposition it.
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重新定位就愈難。
02:16
So think about a portfolio of brands
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所以不妨考慮經營一組品牌
02:18
or maybe new brands for new ventures.
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或為新事業建立新的品牌。
02:21
Now, who remembers Heisenberg's uncertainty principle?
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現在我問一下，有誰記得海森堡(Heisenberg)的不定原理?
02:24
Getting a little more technical now.
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這個技術含量稍微高一點。
02:26
So this says that
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這個原理是說
02:28
it's impossible, by definition,
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根據定義，我們不可能
02:30
to measure exactly the state -- i.e., the position --
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準確測量粒子的狀態，例如
02:32
and the momentum of a particle,
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位置和動能，
02:34
because the act of measuring it, by definition, changes it.
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因為根據定義，測量行為本身，就會改變粒子的狀態。
02:37
So to explain that -- if you've got an elementary particle
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意思就是說，假設有一個基本粒子
02:39
and you shine a light on it,
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你拿光照它，
02:41
then the photon of light has momentum,
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這個光的光子會有動能，
02:44
which knocks the particle,
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和粒子會發生碰撞。
02:47
so you don't know where it was before you looked at it.
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所以你不知道，在你看它之前，它在什麼位置。
02:50
By measuring it,
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測量的同時，
02:52
the act of measurement changes it.
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測量的動作會改變它。
02:54
The act of observation changes it.
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觀察的行為會改變它。
02:56
It's the same in marketing.
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這和行銷的道理是一樣的。
02:58
So with the act of observing consumers, changes their behavior.
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觀察消費者的動作，會改變消費者的行為。
03:01
Think about the group of moms
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假設有一群媽媽
03:04
who are talking about their wonderful children in a focus group,
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在焦點團體裏討論她們的小孩有多棒，
03:07
and almost none of them buy lots of junk food.
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而這些媽媽都買很多垃圾食物。
03:10
And yet, McDonald's sells hundreds of millions of burgers every year.
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所以，麥當勞每年才會賣出幾百萬個漢堡。
03:13
Think about the people who are on accompanied shops in supermarkets,
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再假設有一群人，由訪員陪同，在超市購物，
03:16
who stuff their trolleys
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他們往推車裏塞滿
03:18
full of fresh green vegetables and fruit,
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新鮮的綠色蔬菜和水果，
03:20
but don't shop like that any other day.
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但他們平常買東西的時候，可不像這樣。
03:23
And if you think about the number of people
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想想看，會在意見調查中
03:25
who claim in surveys
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宣稱自己
03:27
to regularly look for porn on the Web,
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經常上網搜尋色情圖片、影片(porn)的人數，
03:29
it's very few.
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是很少的。
03:31
Yet, at Google, we know it's the number-one searched for category.
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不過，我們知道Google搜尋榜上，第一名就是porn。
03:35
So luckily, the science --
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幸運的是，科學--
03:37
no, sorry -- the marketing is getting easier.
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不好意思--是行銷，變得比較簡單了。
03:40
Luckily, with now better point-of-sale tracking,
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我們現在很幸運，有更好的銷售時點(POS)追蹤系統，
03:43
more digital media consumption,
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更多的數位媒體消費，
03:45
you can measure more what consumers actually do,
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你可以測量消費者的實際行為，
03:48
rather than what they say they do.
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而不只是聽他們說他們做了什麼。
03:50
So the physics is
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物理學上說，
03:52
you can never accurately and exactly
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你永遠不可能確實、精準地
03:54
measure a particle,
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測量一個粒子，
03:56
because the observation changes it.
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因為觀察本身就會改變它。
03:58
The marketing is -- the message for marketing is --
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就行銷而言，應用在行銷上，則是
04:01
that try to measure what consumers actually do,
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要測量消費者的實際行為，
04:04
rather than what they say they'll do
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而不是只聽他們說他們會怎麼做
04:06
or anticipate they'll do.
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或預期他們會怎麼做。
04:09
So next, the scientific method --
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接著，我們來看科學方法，
04:12
an axiom of physics, of all science --
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這是物理學乃至所有科學的原理--
04:14
says you cannot prove a hypothesis through observation,
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你不能靠觀察來證明一項假說。
04:16
you can only disprove it.
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你只能反證它。
04:18
What this means is you can gather more and more data
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這個意思是，你可以收集很多很多的資料，
04:21
around a hypothesis or a positioning,
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來支持一項假說或定位，
04:23
and it will strengthen it, but it will not conclusively prove it.
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不過這只能強化它，而沒辦法完全的證明。
04:26
And only one contrary data point
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但只要一個反面的資料，
04:28
can blow your theory out of the water.
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就能打倒你的理論。
04:31
So if we take an example --
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我們舉個例子--
04:33
Ptolemy had dozens of data points to support his theory
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托勒密(Ptolemy)有很多資料來支持他的理論，
04:36
that the planets would rotate around the Earth.
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也就是，行星是繞著地球運轉。
04:39
It only took one robust observation from Copernicus
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但哥白尼一個有力的觀察結果，
04:42
to blow that idea out of the water.
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就把他的理論打得落花流水。
04:45
And there are parallels for marketing --
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行銷上也有這樣的例子。
04:47
you can invest for a long time in a brand,
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你可以在一個品牌上投入很多的時間經營，
04:50
but a single contrary observation of that positioning
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但只要有一個和品牌定位相反的事件，
04:52
will destroy consumers' belief.
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就足以擊潰消費者的信心。
04:55
Take BP --
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拿英國石油(BP)為例。
04:57
they spent millions of pounds over many years
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他們在幾年內，花了幾百萬英磅
04:59
building up its credentials as an environmentally friendly brand,
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營造一個愛護環境的品牌形象，
05:02
but then one little accident.
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然後，發生了這麼一個小意外。
05:05
Think about Toyota.
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再看看Toyota。
05:07
It was, for a long time, revered
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長久以來，它是受人尊崇，
05:09
as the most reliable of cars,
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最值得信賴的汽車，
05:11
and then they had the big recall incident.
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然後，發生了一次大規模的回收事件。
05:14
And Tiger Woods, for a long time,
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還有老虎伍茲，他向來是
05:16
the perfect brand ambassador.
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最完美的品牌大使。
05:18
Well, you know the story.
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然後，你們都知道發生了什麼事。
05:20
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
05:26
So the physics is
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這就是物理學說的，
05:28
that you cannot prove a hypothesis,
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你無法證明一個假說，
05:30
but it's easy to disprove it --
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但要反證它卻很容易。
05:32
any hypothesis is shaky.
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任何假說都不可靠。
05:34
And the marketing is
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在行銷上，就是
05:36
that not matter how much you've invested in your brand,
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不管你在品牌經營上投注多少心力，
05:39
one bad week can undermine decades of good work.
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只要一個處理不好，可能就會讓數十年的努力白費。
05:42
So be really careful to try and avoid the screw-ups
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所以，一定要小心避免這類狀況的發生，
05:44
that can undermine your brand.
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讓你的品牌受到傷害。
05:47
And lastly, to the slightly obscure world of entropy --
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最後，來談談不太好懂的「熵」，
05:50
the second law of thermodynamics.
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熱力學第二定律。
05:52
This says that entropy,
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定律說，「熵」，
05:54
which is a measure of the disorder of a system,
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也就是系統中的混亂程度
05:56
will always increase.
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會一直增加。
05:58
The same is true of marketing.
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這在行銷上也同樣適用。
06:00
If we go back 20 years,
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回到20年前，
06:02
the one message pretty much controlled by one marketing manager
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一個訊息，幾乎可以由一個行銷經理來掌握，
06:05
could pretty much define a brand.
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而這個訊息，幾乎就能定義一個品牌。
06:08
But where we are today, things have changed.
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但現在已經不再是這樣了。
06:11
You can get a strong brand image
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你可以有一個很有力的品牌形象，
06:13
or a message
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或一個訊息，
06:15
and put it out there like the Conservative Party did
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然後把它發送出去，就像英國保守黨
06:17
earlier this year with their election poster.
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前一陣子張貼競選海報的作法一樣。
06:20
But then you lose control of it.
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但之後你就控制不了了。
06:23
With the kind of digital comment creation and distribution tools
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現在有各式各樣製造和發送意見的工具，
06:26
that are available now to every consumer,
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每個消費者都能使用，
06:29
it's impossible to control where it goes.
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要控制訊息已經不可能了。
06:32
Your brand starts being dispersed,
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你的品牌開始失焦。
06:34
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
06:36
it gets more chaotic.
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開始變得混亂。
06:38
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
06:40
It's out of your control.
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你沒辦法控制。
06:42
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
06:47
I actually saw him speak -- he did a good job.
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我親自看過他的演說。他其實表現得不錯。
06:49
But while this may be unsettling for marketers,
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雖然這或許會讓行銷人員感到不安，
06:51
it's actually a good thing.
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但這未嘗不是好事。
06:53
This distribution of brand energy
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品牌能量的散佈，
06:55
gets your brand closer to the people,
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能讓你的品牌更貼近一般人，
06:57
more in with the people.
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更深入人心。
06:59
It makes this distribution of energy a democratizing force,
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能量的分散，是一個民主化的力量，
07:02
which is ultimately good for your brand.
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最終對你的品牌有益。
07:05
So, the lesson from physics is
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所以，物理學教我們的是
07:07
that entropy will always increase; it's a fundamental law.
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熵會一直增加，這是基本原理。
07:10
The message for marketing is that your brand is more dispersed.
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應用在行銷上，就是你的品牌能量會變得更分散。
07:13
You can't fight it, so embrace it
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你既然沒辦法對抗它，那就擁抱它，
07:15
and find a way to work with it.
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找到和它共處的方法。
07:18
So to close,
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結論是，
07:20
my teacher, Mr. Vutter, told me
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就像我的老師威特先生告訴我的，
07:22
that physics is cool,
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物理很酷，
07:24
and hopefully, I've convinced you
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還有呢，希望各位都同意，
07:26
that physics can teach all of us, even in the world of marketing, something special.
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物理可以教我們一些特別的事，甚至是行銷世界裏的事。
07:29
Thank you.
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謝謝大家。
07:31
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Cobley - Online marketing whizDan Cobley is a marketing director at Google, where he connects customers and businesses, helping both navigate digital space to find what they need.
Why you should listen
In 2006, Dan Cobley was appointed director of marketing at Google for central and northern Europe. He shows customers the best way to use Google products to find the information and services they’re searching for, while working with businesses to demonstrate how a search engine can help them find interested customers.
Before Google, Cobley was the vice president of branding and marketing for Capital One and the marketing director of Ask Jeeves. He’s worked in both the UK and US, but always in marketing although his first degree from Oxford is in physics.
More profile about the speakerBefore Google, Cobley was the vice president of branding and marketing for Capital One and the marketing director of Ask Jeeves. He’s worked in both the UK and US, but always in marketing although his first degree from Oxford is in physics.
Dan Cobley | Speaker | TED.com