TED2011
Harvey Fineberg: Are we ready for neo-evolution?
哈维·芬伯格（Harvey Fineberg）：我们准备好了要“新进化”吗？
Filmed:
Readability: 4.4
1,108,576 views
医学伦理学家哈维·芬伯格向我们展示了人类“新进化”的三个方向：完全停止进化，自然地进化，或控制性的进化（通过基因改良使得我们更聪明，更快也更好）。“新进化”在我们的掌握中。而我们要怎么做？
Harvey Fineberg - Health policy expert
Harvey Fineberg studies medical decisionmaking -- from how we roll out new medical technology, to how we cope with new illnesses and threatened epidemics. Full bio
Harvey Fineberg studies medical decisionmaking -- from how we roll out new medical technology, to how we cope with new illnesses and threatened epidemics. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
How would you like to be better than you are?
0
0
4000
如果你可以比现在的你更好，你希望是怎样？
00:19
Suppose I said
1
4000
2000
比如说，
00:21
that, with just a few changes in your genes,
2
6000
2000
你的基因可以有一些改动，
00:23
you could get a better memory --
3
8000
2000
使得你有更好的记忆力，
00:25
more precise,
4
10000
2000
更精确，
00:27
more accurate and quicker.
5
12000
3000
更准且更快。
00:30
Or maybe you'd like to be more fit, stronger,
6
15000
3000
或者你想变得更健康，更强壮，
00:33
with more stamina.
7
18000
2000
更多的精力。
00:35
Would you like to be more attractive and self-confident?
8
20000
4000
你想变得更具吸引力，更加自信？
00:39
How about living longer with good health?
9
24000
3000
能健康地活很久，这怎么样？
00:42
Or perhaps you're one of those
10
27000
2000
或者，你是
00:44
who's always yearned for more creativity.
11
29000
3000
想要有更多的创造力。
00:47
Which one would you like the most?
12
32000
3000
你最想要什么呢？
00:51
Which would you like, if you could have just one?
13
36000
2000
如果你只能有一样，你想要什么？
00:53
(Audience Member: Creativity.)
14
38000
2000
（听众：创造力。）
00:55
Creativity.
15
40000
2000
创造力。
00:57
How many people would choose creativity?
16
42000
2000
有多少人要选创造力？
00:59
Raise your hands. Let me see.
17
44000
2000
举起您的手，让我看看。
01:01
A few. Probably about as many as there are creative people here.
18
46000
3000
有一些。或许和我们这里有创造力的人数一样多。
01:04
(Laughter) That's very good.
19
49000
2000
那非常好。
01:06
How many would opt for memory?
20
51000
3000
有多少想要记忆力？
01:09
Quite a few more.
21
54000
2000
多一些了。
01:11
How about fitness?
22
56000
2000
健康呢？
01:13
A few less.
23
58000
2000
少一些。
01:15
What about longevity?
24
60000
2000
长寿呢？
01:17
Ah, the majority. That makes me feel very good as a doctor.
25
62000
3000
啊，大多数。我是医生，看到这里我很高兴。
01:21
If you could have any one of these,
26
66000
3000
如果你能有这其中之一的改变，
01:24
it would be a very different world.
27
69000
2000
世界将会非常不同。
01:26
Is it just imaginary?
28
71000
2000
这只是想象吗？
01:28
Or, is it, perhaps, possible?
29
73000
3000
或是说，这或许可能发生？
01:31
Evolution has been a perennial topic
30
76000
3000
进化是个永久的话题了，
01:34
here at the TED Conference,
31
79000
3000
在TED的论坛上。
01:37
but I want to give you today
32
82000
2000
但是今天我要告诉你们
01:39
one doctor's take on the subject.
33
84000
2000
关于这个话题的一个医生的看法。
01:41
The great 20th-century geneticist,
34
86000
2000
20世纪著名的遗传学家，
01:43
T.G. Dobzhansky,
35
88000
2000
T.杜布尚斯基（T.G. Dobzhansky），
01:45
who was also a communicant
36
90000
2000
同时他也是受圣餐的教徒，
01:47
in the Russian Orthodox Church,
37
92000
2000
在俄罗斯东正教教堂里。
01:49
once wrote an essay that he titled
38
94000
3000
他曾写过一篇文章，名为：
01:52
"Nothing in Biology Makes Sense
39
97000
3000
“生物学的一切很难说通，
01:55
Except in the Light of Evolution."
40
100000
3000
除非用进化的思想来思考。”
01:58
Now if you are one of those
41
103000
2000
现在，如果你是
02:00
who does not accept the evidence for biological evolution,
42
105000
3000
不相信生物进化证据的
02:03
this would be a very good time to turn off your hearing aid,
43
108000
3000
现在你可以关掉你的助听器的时候了，
02:06
take out your personal communications device --
44
111000
2000
拿出你的个人通讯设备了 --
02:08
I give you permission --
45
113000
2000
你得到允许了 --
02:10
and perhaps take another look at Kathryn Schultz's book on being wrong,
46
115000
3000
或者再看一次卡瑟林·舒尔茨（Kathryn Schulz)那本关于犯错的书。
02:13
because nothing in the rest of this talk
47
118000
2000
因为接下来的演讲
02:15
is going to make any sense whatsoever to you.
48
120000
3000
你将感觉到没有任何意义。
02:18
(Laughter)
49
123000
2000
（笑声）
02:20
But if you do accept
50
125000
2000
可如果你相信
02:22
biological evolution,
51
127000
3000
生物进化论，
02:25
consider this:
52
130000
2000
想想一下这个：
02:27
is it just about the past,
53
132000
2000
那是关于过去的，
02:29
or is it about the future?
54
134000
2000
还是关于将来的？
02:31
Does it apply to others,
55
136000
2000
那是发生在其他生物身上的，
02:33
or does it apply to us?
56
138000
3000
还是我们也会发生？
02:36
This is another look at the tree of life.
57
141000
3000
这是一张生命树的图。
02:39
In this picture,
58
144000
2000
在这张图片里，
02:41
I've put a bush with a center branching out in all directions,
59
146000
3000
我让树状从中心向各个方向展开分支，
02:44
because if you look at the edges
60
149000
2000
因为如果看生命树的
02:46
of the tree of life,
61
151000
2000
边角部分，
02:48
every existing species
62
153000
2000
每个现有的物种
02:50
at the tips of those branches
63
155000
2000
在那些分支尖端的，
02:52
has succeeded in evolutionary terms:
64
157000
2000
用进化术语来说，都是成功的，
02:54
it has survived;
65
159000
2000
存活了。
02:56
it has demonstrated a fitness
66
161000
2000
这表明了一种适合度
02:58
to its environment.
67
163000
2000
对它的环境。
03:00
The human part of this branch,
68
165000
3000
人类的部分，在这个分支里，
03:03
way out on one end,
69
168000
3000
在一个边角的末端，
03:06
is, of course, the one that we are most interested in.
70
171000
4000
当然是我们最感兴趣的。
03:10
We branch off of a common ancestor
71
175000
2000
我们从一个共同祖先分支出来
03:12
to modern chimpanzees
72
177000
2000
和现代黑猩猩分开
03:14
about six or eight million years ago.
73
179000
3000
大概是600万或800万年前。
03:17
In the interval,
74
182000
2000
在这期间，
03:19
there have been perhaps 20 or 25
75
184000
2000
大概有20到25个
03:21
different species of hominids.
76
186000
3000
类人的物种。
03:24
Some have come and gone.
77
189000
3000
有些来过又走了。
03:27
We have been here for about 130,000 years.
78
192000
4000
我们在这里生存了13万年。
03:31
It may seem like we're quite remote
79
196000
2000
看起来，我们似乎
03:33
from other parts of this tree of life,
80
198000
3000
和这生命树的其他物种离得很远。
03:36
but actually, for the most part,
81
201000
3000
但事实上，在很多层面上，
03:39
the basic machinery of our cells
82
204000
3000
组成我们细胞的基本的基本的构造
03:42
is pretty much the same.
83
207000
2000
是几乎一样的。
03:44
Do you realize that we can take advantage
84
209000
3000
你知道吗？我们可以利用
03:47
and commandeer the machinery of a common bacterium
85
212000
3000
和应用一个普通细菌的构造
03:50
to produce the protein of human insulin
86
215000
3000
来制造人类胰岛素的蛋白质
03:53
used to treat diabetics?
87
218000
2000
而用来治疗糖尿病？
03:55
This is not like human insulin;
88
220000
2000
这并非人类的胰岛素；
03:57
this is the same protein
89
222000
2000
这是一样的蛋白质
03:59
that is chemically indistinguishable
90
224000
2000
在生化角度上
04:01
from what comes out of your pancreas.
91
226000
4000
和我们胰腺生成的很难区分。
04:06
And speaking of bacteria,
92
231000
2000
说到细菌，
04:08
do you realize that each of us carries in our gut
93
233000
3000
你知道我们每人肚子里的细菌
04:11
more bacteria
94
236000
2000
多于
04:13
than there are cells in the rest of our body?
95
238000
2000
我们身体里的细胞？
04:15
Maybe 10 times more.
96
240000
2000
也许有10倍还要多。
04:17
I mean think of it,
97
242000
2000
大家想想，
04:19
when Antonio Damasio asks about your self-image,
98
244000
3000
当安东尼奥·达马西奥（Antonio R Damasio）问你个人自我形象时，
04:22
do you think about the bacteria?
99
247000
3000
你会想到细菌吗？
04:26
Our gut is a wonderfully hospitable environment
100
251000
2000
我们的肠子是一个很适宜的环境，
04:28
for those bacteria.
101
253000
2000
对那些细菌来说。
04:30
It's warm, it's dark, it's moist,
102
255000
2000
温暖，黑暗，潮湿，
04:32
it's very cozy.
103
257000
2000
相当舒适。
04:34
And you're going to provide all the nutrition that they could possibly want
104
259000
2000
而且，我们还会提供给它们需要的几乎所有的养分
04:36
with no effort on their part.
105
261000
2000
它们不费任何力气。
04:38
It's really like an Easy Street for bacteria,
106
263000
3000
对细菌来说，这真是逍遥自在，
04:41
with the occasional interruption
107
266000
3000
虽然有偶尔的打扰
04:44
of the unintended forced rush to the exit.
108
269000
2000
被不情愿地排放出去。
04:46
But otherwise,
109
271000
3000
但仍然，
04:49
you are a wonderful environment for those bacteria,
110
274000
3000
对细菌来说，你是一个极好的生活环境，
04:52
just as they are essential to your life.
111
277000
3000
而且他们对你的生活也是必需的。
04:55
They help in the digestion of essential nutrients,
112
280000
3000
他们帮助消化你所需的养分。
04:58
and they protect you against certain diseases.
113
283000
3000
而且他们还保护你抵抗一些疾病。
05:02
But what will come in the future?
114
287000
2000
不过未来会是怎样呢？
05:04
Are we at some kind of evolutionary equipoise
115
289000
3000
我们是否已经处于进化上的平衡，
05:07
as a species?
116
292000
2000
作为一个物种？
05:09
Or, are we destined
117
294000
2000
或者，我们的命运是
05:11
to become something different --
118
296000
2000
会变成其他不同的物种 ——
05:13
something, perhaps, even better adapted
119
298000
3000
其他或许能更好地适应
05:16
to the environment?
120
301000
2000
环境？
05:18
Now let's take a step back in time
121
303000
3000
现在让我们回到
05:21
to the Big Bang, 14 billion years ago --
122
306000
3000
宇宙大爆炸的时候，140亿年前 —
05:24
the Earth, the solar system,
123
309000
2000
地球，太阳系，
05:26
about four and a half billion years --
124
311000
3000
大概是45亿年前 —
05:29
the first signs of proto-life,
125
314000
2000
原始生命的最初跡象，
05:31
maybe three to four billion years ago on Earth --
126
316000
2000
可能三、四十亿年前的地球 —
05:33
the first multi-celled organisms,
127
318000
3000
第一个多细胞有机体，
05:36
perhaps as much
128
321000
2000
大概是在
05:38
as 800 or a billion years ago --
129
323000
3000
8亿或者10亿年前 —
05:41
and then the human species,
130
326000
2000
然后是人类这一物种
05:43
finally emerging
131
328000
2000
终于出现在
05:45
in the last 130,000 years.
132
330000
3000
最后的13万年。
05:48
In this vast unfinished symphony of the universe,
133
333000
3000
在这宇宙的庞大的未完成的交响曲中，
05:51
life on Earth is like a brief measure;
134
336000
3000
地球上的生命就如一个简单的乐谱；
05:54
the animal kingdom,
135
339000
2000
动物，
05:56
like a single measure;
136
341000
3000
是单一的小节
05:59
and human life,
137
344000
2000
而人类，
06:01
a small grace note.
138
346000
2000
是一个装饰音。
06:03
That was us.
139
348000
3000
那就是我们。
06:06
That also constitutes the entertainment portion of this talk,
140
351000
2000
那也是这次演讲的有趣的部分，
06:08
so I hope you enjoyed it.
141
353000
2000
我希望你们喜欢。
06:10
(Laughter)
142
355000
2000
（笑声）
06:12
Now when I was a freshman in college,
143
357000
3000
在我还是大学新生的时候，
06:15
I took my first biology class.
144
360000
2000
我上了我第一节生物学课。
06:17
I was fascinated
145
362000
2000
我很震惊，
06:19
by the elegance and beauty of biology.
146
364000
3000
生物学是优雅且美丽的。
06:22
I became enamored of the power of evolution,
147
367000
3000
我为进化的力量而着迷，
06:25
and I realized something very fundamental:
148
370000
2000
并意识到一个很基本的东西：
06:27
in most of the existence of life
149
372000
2000
在大部分生命存在的形式中，
06:29
in single-celled organisms,
150
374000
2000
在单细胞生物体中，
06:31
each cell simply divides,
151
376000
2000
每一个细胞的简单构造，
06:33
and all of the genetic energy of that cell
152
378000
3000
和所有该细胞的基因能量，
06:36
is carried on in both daughter cells.
153
381000
3000
都被子细胞继承。
06:39
But at the time multi-celled organisms come online,
154
384000
4000
不过在多细胞生物体出来的时候，
06:43
things start to change.
155
388000
2000
情况开始变化。
06:45
Sexual reproduction enters the picture.
156
390000
3000
有性生殖开始进入画面。
06:48
And very importantly,
157
393000
2000
而且非常重要的是，
06:50
with the introduction of sexual reproduction
158
395000
3000
采用有性生殖的方式
06:53
that passes on the genome,
159
398000
2000
而传递的基因，
06:55
the rest of the body
160
400000
2000
而其他部分
06:57
becomes expendable.
161
402000
2000
变得可消耗。
06:59
In fact, you could say
162
404000
3000
实际上，你可以说
07:02
that the inevitability of the death of our bodies
163
407000
3000
我们部分的死亡的必然性
07:05
enters in evolutionary time
164
410000
2000
出现在进化里
07:07
at the same moment
165
412000
2000
和有性繁殖
07:09
as sexual reproduction.
166
414000
2000
同时发生
07:11
Now I have to confess,
167
416000
2000
如今我得说
07:13
when I was a college undergraduate,
168
418000
2000
当我还是大学生的时候
07:15
I thought, okay, sex/death, sex/death, death for sex --
169
420000
4000
我当时想，好吧，性/死亡，性/死亡，为性而亡—
07:19
it seemed pretty reasonable at the time,
170
424000
3000
那时候听起来还是挺合理的，
07:22
but with each passing year,
171
427000
2000
但一年一年过去
07:24
I've come to have increasing doubts.
172
429000
2000
我开始产生很多疑问。
07:26
I've come to understand the sentiments of George Burns,
173
431000
3000
我开始理解乔治伯恩斯（George Burns），
07:29
who was performing still in Las Vegas
174
434000
2000
他之前一直在拉斯维加斯表演
07:31
well into his 90s.
175
436000
2000
直到他90岁。
07:33
And one night, there's a knock at his hotel room door.
176
438000
2000
有一天晚上，有人敲他住的酒店的门。
07:35
He answers the door.
177
440000
2000
他开了门。
07:37
Standing before him is a gorgeous, scantily clad showgirl.
178
442000
3000
出现在他面前的是一个漂亮的穿得很少舞女。
07:40
She looks at him and says,
179
445000
2000
她看着他说，
07:42
"I'm here for super sex."
180
447000
3000
“我来这里是想要做个大爱。”
07:45
"That's fine," says George, "I'll take the soup."
181
450000
3000
“好的，”乔治说，“那我就喝汤吧。” (Soup 发音接近Super.)
07:48
(Laughter)
182
453000
4000
（笑声）
07:52
I came to realize,
183
457000
2000
我开始意识到
07:54
as a physician,
184
459000
2000
作为一个医生
07:56
that I was working toward a goal
185
461000
3000
一直以来我努力的方向
07:59
which was different from the goal of evolution --
186
464000
3000
是一个不同于进化方向的方向 —
08:02
not necessarily contradictory, just different.
187
467000
3000
并不是绝对的矛盾，只是不同。
08:05
I was trying to preserve the body.
188
470000
2000
我一直是在努力去保持
08:07
I wanted to keep us healthy.
189
472000
2000
想要使得我们健康。
08:09
I wanted to restore health from disease.
190
474000
3000
想要使得我们从疾病中恢复。
08:12
I wanted us to live long and healthy lives.
191
477000
3000
想要我们活得更长久更健康。
08:15
Evolution is all about passing on the genome
192
480000
3000
进化，却是传递基因
08:18
to the next generation,
193
483000
2000
给下一代
08:20
adapting and surviving
194
485000
3000
适应和存活
08:23
through generation after generation.
195
488000
2000
从上一代到下一代。
08:25
From an evolutionary point of view,
196
490000
3000
从进化论的观点来看，
08:28
you and I are like the booster rockets
197
493000
2000
我们就像是火箭助推器
08:30
designed to send the genetic payload
198
495000
2000
被设计成发送“基因”载荷
08:32
into the next level of orbit
199
497000
2000
到下一层轨道
08:34
and then drop off into the sea.
200
499000
3000
然后再跌落大海。
08:37
I think we would all understand the sentiment that Woody Allen expressed
201
502000
3000
我想我们都应该理解伍迪·艾伦（Woody Allen）所说的，
08:40
when he said, "I don't want to achieve immortality through my work.
202
505000
4000
他说，“我不想通过我的工作而不朽，
08:44
I want to achieve it through not dying."
203
509000
2000
“我想通过不死而不朽。”
08:46
(Laughter)
204
511000
3000
（笑声）
08:49
Evolution does not necessarily
205
514000
3000
进化，不是一定
08:52
favor the longest-lived.
206
517000
2000
是要活得更长久。
08:54
It doesn't necessarily favor the biggest
207
519000
2000
它不一定看中那些个头最大的
08:56
or the strongest or the fastest,
208
521000
2000
或者最强壮的，或者速度最快的
08:58
and not even the smartest.
209
523000
2000
而且甚至不是最聪明的。
09:00
Evolution favors
210
525000
2000
进化想要的
09:02
those creatures best adapted
211
527000
3000
是那些能最好适应
09:05
to their environment.
212
530000
2000
它们环境的生物。
09:07
That is the sole test
213
532000
2000
这是一个单一的
09:09
of survival and success.
214
534000
2000
成功存活的测试。
09:11
At the bottom of the ocean,
215
536000
2000
在大海深处，
09:13
bacteria that are thermophilic
216
538000
2000
细菌都是耐热的
09:15
and can survive at the steam vent heat
217
540000
3000
它们能在热蒸汽中生存
09:18
that would otherwise produce, if fish were there,
218
543000
3000
不然地话，如果那里有鱼，就会有
09:21
sous-vide cooked fish,
219
546000
2000
苏斯维特煮鱼，
09:23
nevertheless, have managed
220
548000
2000
不过，它们却可以
09:25
to make that a hospitable environment for them.
221
550000
5000
让自己生活在一个舒服的环境里。
09:30
So what does this mean,
222
555000
3000
所以，这意味着什么，
09:33
as we look back at what has happened in evolution,
223
558000
3000
当我们回头看进化过程中发生的事情，
09:36
and as we think about the place again
224
561000
3000
以及我们再想想
09:39
of humans in evolution,
225
564000
3000
进化中的人类，
09:42
and particularly as we look ahead
226
567000
3000
特别是我们向上看
09:45
to the next phase,
227
570000
2000
到下一个阶段的时候
09:47
I would say
228
572000
2000
我只能说
09:49
that there are a number of possibilities.
229
574000
3000
有很多的可能性。
09:52
The first is that we will not evolve.
230
577000
5000
第一种可能，我们不会进化了。
09:57
We have reached
231
582000
2000
我们已经达到了
09:59
a kind of equipoise.
232
584000
2000
某个平衡点。
10:01
And the reasoning behind that would be,
233
586000
2000
这背后的原因可能是，
10:03
first, we have, through medicine,
234
588000
3000
首先，我们通过药物，
10:06
managed to preserve a lot of genes
235
591000
2000
可以保留很多基因
10:08
that would otherwise be selected out
236
593000
2000
那些本会被淘汰
10:10
and be removed from the population.
237
595000
2000
和从大多数人中移除的基因。
10:12
And secondly, we as a species
238
597000
2000
其次，我们是一个
10:14
have so configured our environment
239
599000
3000
能够配置我们的环境的物种
10:17
that we have managed to make it adapt to us
240
602000
3000
使得环境来适应我们
10:20
as well as we adapt to it.
241
605000
3000
以及我们来适应环境。
10:23
And by the way, we immigrate and circulate
242
608000
2000
另外，我们移民，流通
10:25
and intermix so much
243
610000
2000
而且混杂在一起
10:27
that you can't any longer
244
612000
2000
这使得你不在
10:29
have the isolation that is necessary
245
614000
2000
处于隔离状态，而这个状态又正是
10:31
for evolution to take place.
246
616000
3000
进化发生的必要条件。
10:34
A second possibility
247
619000
2000
第二种可能，
10:36
is that there will be evolution of the traditional kind,
248
621000
3000
就还是传统的进化形式，
10:39
natural, imposed by the forces of nature.
249
624000
5000
自然的，由自然界力量推动的。
10:44
And the argument here would be
250
629000
2000
在此争议的就是
10:46
that the wheels of evolution grind slowly,
251
631000
3000
进化的轮盘转得缓慢，
10:49
but they are inexorable.
252
634000
2000
是不能阻挡。
10:51
And as far as isolation goes,
253
636000
2000
只有孤立现象存在，
10:53
when we as a species
254
638000
2000
而我们作为一个物种
10:55
do colonize distant planets,
255
640000
2000
统治着遥远的星球
10:57
there will be the isolation and the environmental changes
256
642000
3000
那就会有孤立的现象，环境的改变
11:00
that could produce evolution
257
645000
3000
会导致的进化
11:03
in the natural way.
258
648000
2000
自然界方式的进化。
11:05
But there's a third possibility,
259
650000
2000
但是有第三种可能，
11:07
an enticing, intriguing and frightening possibility.
260
652000
3000
一种诱人的，有趣且骇人的可能性。
11:10
I call it neo-evolution --
261
655000
2000
我把它叫做：新进化 —
11:12
the new evolution
262
657000
2000
一种新的进化方式
11:14
that is not simply natural,
263
659000
2000
不是简单的自然界方式，
11:16
but guided and chosen
264
661000
3000
是有指导和选择的方式
11:19
by us as individuals
265
664000
3000
由我们作为个体来
11:22
in the choices that we will make.
266
667000
2000
进行选择而促成的方式。
11:24
Now how could this come about?
267
669000
3000
现在，这要怎么发生呢？
11:27
How could it be possible that we would do this?
268
672000
3000
我们如何可能让这发生呢？
11:30
Consider, first, the reality
269
675000
3000
先来考虑现实
11:33
that people today, in some cultures,
270
678000
3000
现在，一些文化中的人们，
11:36
are making choices about their offspring.
271
681000
3000
他们对他们的后代做的一些选择。
11:39
They're, in some cultures,
272
684000
2000
其中在一些文化中，他们
11:41
choosing to have more males than females.
273
686000
3000
选择更多的男生多余女生。
11:44
It's not necessarily good for the society,
274
689000
2000
对整个社会来说，这必定不是好事，
11:46
but it's what the individual and the family are choosing.
275
691000
4000
但是这确是一个个体和家庭做出的一个选择。
11:50
Think also,
276
695000
2000
再来想想，
11:52
if it were possible ever
277
697000
4000
如果你可以
11:56
for you to choose, not simply to choose the sex of your child,
278
701000
3000
去选择，不是简单的选择你的子女的性别，
11:59
but for you in your body
279
704000
3000
而是选择在你身体里
12:02
to make the genetic adjustments
280
707000
3000
去做一些基因的调整
12:05
that would cure or prevent diseases.
281
710000
2000
可以治愈或者防治疾病的调整。
12:07
What if you could make the genetic changes
282
712000
3000
如果你真能做一些基因的调整
12:10
to eliminate diabetes or Alzheimer's
283
715000
3000
去消除糖尿病或者阿尔茨海默氏症
12:13
or reduce the risk of cancer
284
718000
2000
或者减少癌症的发病率
12:15
or eliminate stroke?
285
720000
2000
或者消除中风？
12:17
Wouldn't you want
286
722000
2000
难道你不想
12:19
to make those changes
287
724000
2000
对你的基因做
12:21
in your genes?
288
726000
2000
那些改变？
12:23
If we look ahead,
289
728000
2000
如果我们向前看，
12:25
these kind of changes
290
730000
2000
这些改变
12:27
are going to be increasingly possible.
291
732000
5000
将会是非常有可能的。
12:32
The Human Genome Project
292
737000
2000
人类基因组计划
12:34
started in 1990,
293
739000
2000
从1990年开始，
12:36
and it took 13 years.
294
741000
2000
并用了13年时间。
12:38
It cost 2.7 billion dollars.
295
743000
5000
它花费了27亿美元。
12:43
The year after it was finished in 2004,
296
748000
3000
在计划完成之后的2004年，
12:46
you could do the same job
297
751000
2000
你能做同样的事情
12:48
for 20 million dollars in three to four months.
298
753000
3000
两千万美元，三到四个月。
12:51
Today, you can have a complete sequence
299
756000
3000
今天你就能得到一个完整的基因序列
12:54
of the three billion base pairs in the human genome
300
759000
2000
包含了人体基因的30亿个碱基对
12:56
at a cost of about 20,000 dollars
301
761000
3000
花费大概是2万美元
12:59
and in the space of about a week.
302
764000
2000
大概是一个星期之内。
13:01
It won't be very long
303
766000
2000
不会太久
13:03
before the reality will be
304
768000
2000
就能实现
13:05
the 1,000-dollar human genome,
305
770000
2000
一千美元的人类基因组，
13:07
and it will be increasingly available for everyone.
306
772000
3000
而且越来越多人都可以做。
13:11
Just a week ago,
307
776000
2000
就在一周前，
13:13
the National Academy of Engineering
308
778000
2000
国家工程院（美国）
13:15
awarded its Draper Prize
309
780000
2000
授予了“德雷珀奖”
13:17
to Francis Arnold and Willem Stemmer,
310
782000
2000
给弗朗西斯·阿诺德（Francis Arnold）和威廉·思特梅尔（Willem Stemmer）
13:19
two scientists who independently developed techniques
311
784000
4000
两位科学家独立开发了技术
13:23
to encourage the natural process of evolution to work faster
312
788000
4000
能使得自然进化过程更快
13:27
and to lead to desirable proteins
313
792000
2000
且更多可取蛋白质
13:29
in a more efficient way --
314
794000
2000
能够更有效地产生。
13:31
what Frances Arnold calls "directed evolution."
315
796000
4000
弗朗西斯·阿诺德（Francis Arnold）称之为“定向进化”。
13:35
A couple of years ago, the Lasker Prize
316
800000
3000
多年前，拉斯克奖(Albert Lasker Prize)
13:38
was awarded to the scientist Shinya Yamanaka
317
803000
3000
授予了科学家山中伸弥（Shinya Yamanaka）
13:41
for his research
318
806000
2000
他的研究
13:43
in which he took an adult skin cell,
319
808000
2000
是他取用成一个成熟的皮肤细胞，
13:45
a fibroblast,
320
810000
2000
一个纤维组织母细胞
13:47
and by manipulating just four genes,
321
812000
3000
并通过操控仅仅四个基因，
13:50
he induced that cell
322
815000
2000
他引导该细胞
13:52
to revert to a pluripotential stem cell --
323
817000
4000
还原成一个多能干细胞 —
13:56
a cell potentially capable
324
821000
3000
一个有可能
13:59
of becoming any cell in your body.
325
824000
3000
成为我们身体中任何细胞的细胞。
14:02
These changes are coming.
326
827000
2000
这些改变正在进行中。
14:04
The same technology
327
829000
2000
同样的技术
14:06
that has produced the human insulin in bacteria
328
831000
2000
就是能从产生病毒的细菌中
14:08
can make viruses
329
833000
2000
生成人体胰岛素
14:10
that will not only protect you against themselves,
330
835000
3000
这将不仅仅是保护你抵抗它们，
14:13
but induce immunity against other viruses.
331
838000
2000
还会产生对其他病毒的免疫力。
14:15
Believe it or not,
332
840000
2000
你是否相信，
14:17
there's an experimental trial going on
333
842000
2000
有一个实验在研究
14:19
with vaccine against influenza
334
844000
3000
预防流感的疫苗
14:22
that has been grown in the cells of a tobacco plant.
335
847000
4000
是从一种烟草植物细胞中培育的。
14:26
Can you imagine something good coming out of tobacco?
336
851000
4000
你能想象烟草中也能有有益的东西吗？
14:30
These are all reality today,
337
855000
3000
这些在今天都是现实，
14:33
and [in] the future, will be evermore possible.
338
858000
3000
而且在未来，会有更多的可能。
14:36
Imagine then
339
861000
2000
届时想想
14:38
just two other little changes.
340
863000
3000
另外两个小的变化。
14:41
You can change the cells in your body,
341
866000
2000
你能改变自己身体中的细胞，
14:43
but what if you could change the cells in your offspring?
342
868000
4000
那如果你能改变你后代的细胞呢？
14:47
What if you could change the sperm and the ova,
343
872000
2000
如果你能改变精子和卵子，
14:49
or change the newly fertilized egg,
344
874000
3000
或者是改变新的受精卵，
14:52
and give your offspring a better chance
345
877000
2000
能给你的后代更好的机会
14:54
at a healthier life --
346
879000
2000
更健康的生活—
14:56
eliminate the diabetes, eliminate the hemophilia,
347
881000
2000
消除了糖尿病，消除了血友病，
14:58
reduce the risk of cancer?
348
883000
2000
减少了癌症的机率？
15:00
Who doesn't want healthier children?
349
885000
3000
谁不想要更健康的儿女呢？
15:03
And then, that same analytic technology,
350
888000
3000
到时候，同样的解析技术，
15:06
that same engine of science
351
891000
2000
同样的科学技术
15:08
that can produce
352
893000
2000
能够产生
15:10
the changes to prevent disease,
353
895000
2000
防御疾病的改变，
15:12
will also enable us
354
897000
3000
也会使得我们
15:15
to adopt super-attributes,
355
900000
2000
能集成一些超级的属性，
15:17
hyper-capacities --
356
902000
2000
高级别的能力 —
15:19
that better memory.
357
904000
2000
更好的记忆力。
15:21
Why not have the quick wit
358
906000
2000
为什么不要
15:23
of a Ken Jennings,
359
908000
2000
肯·詹宁斯（Ken Jenniings）的机智
15:25
especially if you can augment it
360
910000
2000
特别是你能有
15:27
with the next generation of the Watson machine?
361
912000
3000
和下一代沃森电脑系统一样的机智？
15:30
Why not have the quick twitch muscle
362
915000
3000
为什么不要快速的收缩肌肉
15:33
that will enable you to run faster and longer?
363
918000
3000
能让我们跑得更快更持久？
15:36
Why not live longer?
364
921000
4000
为什么不活得更长久？
15:40
These will be irresistible.
365
925000
2000
这些都会不可抗拒。
15:42
And when we are at a position
366
927000
3000
而且当我们处在一个位置
15:45
where we can pass it on to the next generation,
367
930000
2000
我们可以传给下一代，
15:47
and we can adopt the attributes we want,
368
932000
3000
我们可以集成我们想要的能力，
15:50
we will have converted
369
935000
3000
我们就会改变
15:53
old-style evolution
370
938000
2000
旧模式的进化
15:55
into neo-evolution.
371
940000
2000
为新进化。
15:57
We'll take a process
372
942000
2000
我们将有这样的过程
15:59
that normally might require 100,000 years,
373
944000
2000
一般或许需要10万年，
16:01
and we can compress it down to a thousand years --
374
946000
3000
但我们能压缩到一千年 —
16:04
and maybe even in the next 100 years.
375
949000
3000
或许甚至在下一个100年。
16:07
These are choices
376
952000
2000
这些改变
16:09
that your grandchildren,
377
954000
2000
我们的孙辈
16:11
or their grandchildren,
378
956000
2000
或者他们的孙辈
16:13
are going to have before them.
379
958000
3000
将会拥有的。
16:16
Will we use these choices
380
961000
3000
他们会使用这些选择吗？
16:19
to make a society that is better,
381
964000
3000
去创建一个更好的社会？
16:22
that is more successful, that is kinder?
382
967000
3000
更成功的，更友善的社会？
16:25
Or, will we selectively choose different attributes
383
970000
3000
或者我们会有选择性地选择不同的能力
16:28
that we want for some of us
384
973000
2000
改变我们其中的一些人
16:30
and not for others of us?
385
975000
2000
而不是另外的一些人？
16:32
Will we make a society
386
977000
3000
我们是否会创建一个社会
16:35
that is more boring and more uniform,
387
980000
3000
更为无聊和统一？
16:38
or more robust and more versatile?
388
983000
3000
或者更为健全和更多样？
16:41
These are the kinds of questions
389
986000
2000
这是所有的问题
16:43
that we will have to face.
390
988000
2000
是要让我们面对的。
16:45
And most profoundly of all,
391
990000
2000
而最重要的，
16:47
will we ever be able to develop the wisdom,
392
992000
3000
我们能否推进智力，
16:50
and to inherit the wisdom,
393
995000
2000
或者是继承智力，
16:52
that we'll need to make these choices wisely?
394
997000
3000
让我们更明智地来做这些选择？
16:55
For better or worse,
395
1000000
2000
或好或坏地，
16:57
and sooner than you may think,
396
1002000
2000
比你想象地还要快地
16:59
these choices will be up to us.
397
1004000
3000
我们将会面临这些选择。
17:02
Thank you.
398
1007000
2000
谢谢。
17:04
(Applause)
399
1009000
10000
（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Harvey Fineberg - Health policy expertHarvey Fineberg studies medical decisionmaking -- from how we roll out new medical technology, to how we cope with new illnesses and threatened epidemics.
Why you should listen
As president of the Institute of Medicine, Harvey Fineberg thinks deeply about new medicine, both its broad possibilities and the moral and philosophical questions that each new treatment brings. How do we decide which treatment to use in a tricky case -- both individually and as a community? Is it fair that the richest hospitals get the best healthcare? Who should bear the risk (and gain the reward) of trying the newest treatments?
Fineberg helped found and served as president of the Society for Medical Decision Making and also served as consultant to the World Health Organization. He was provost of Harvard from 1997 to 2001, following thirteen years as Dean of the Harvard School of Public Health. He has devoted most of his academic career to the fields of health policy and medical decision making. His past research has focused on the process of policy development and implementation, assessment of medical technology, evaluation and use of vaccines, and dissemination of medical innovations.
Harvey Fineberg | Speaker | TED.com