TED2011
Harvey Fineberg: Are we ready for neo-evolution?
哈维•芬堡: 我們準備好迎接新進化論嗎?
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醫學倫理學家哈维•芬堡告訴我們人類演進的三條道路: 完全停止演進、自然的演進 -- 或是藉由基因改造來演進，使我們變的更聰明、更迅速，變的更好。 新進化論就在我們十指之間。 我們要如何應用它呢?
Harvey Fineberg - Health policy expert
Harvey Fineberg studies medical decisionmaking -- from how we roll out new medical technology, to how we cope with new illnesses and threatened epidemics. Full bio
Harvey Fineberg studies medical decisionmaking -- from how we roll out new medical technology, to how we cope with new illnesses and threatened epidemics. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
How would you like to be better than you are?
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你想要自己比現在的你更好嗎?
00:19
Suppose I said
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如果我說，
00:21
that, with just a few changes in your genes,
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只需要在你的基因中做幾個改變,
00:23
you could get a better memory --
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你就可以擁有更好的記憶力 --
00:25
more precise,
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更精準、
00:27
more accurate and quicker.
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更精確、更迅速。
00:30
Or maybe you'd like to be more fit, stronger,
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或者你想要更苗條、更強壯、
00:33
with more stamina.
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更有耐力。
00:35
Would you like to be more attractive and self-confident?
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你想變的更具吸引力、更有自信嗎?
00:39
How about living longer with good health?
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活的更久、更健康呢?
00:42
Or perhaps you're one of those
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又或者你是屬於那些
00:44
who's always yearned for more creativity.
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一直嚮往自己能更有創造力的人。
00:47
Which one would you like the most?
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你最想要哪一種呢?
00:51
Which would you like, if you could have just one?
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如果你只能選一種，你會想要哪一種?
00:53
(Audience Member: Creativity.)
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(聽眾: 創造力。)
00:55
Creativity.
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創造力。
00:57
How many people would choose creativity?
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多少人會選擇創造力呢?
00:59
Raise your hands. Let me see.
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舉起你的手讓我看看。
01:01
A few. Probably about as many as there are creative people here.
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有一些人。 大概就跟在坐有創造力的人一樣多吧。
01:04
(Laughter) That's very good.
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很好。
01:06
How many would opt for memory?
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有多少人會選擇記憶力呢?
01:09
Quite a few more.
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比剛才多了一些人。
01:11
How about fitness?
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那健康呢?
01:13
A few less.
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人少了一些。
01:15
What about longevity?
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那更長壽呢?
01:17
Ah, the majority. That makes me feel very good as a doctor.
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喔，大多數的人。 這讓身為醫師的我覺得很好。
01:21
If you could have any one of these,
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如果你能擁有任何一種，
01:24
it would be a very different world.
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這個世界都會非常不一樣。
01:26
Is it just imaginary?
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這只是幻想嗎?
01:28
Or, is it, perhaps, possible?
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還是，這確實有可能呢?
01:31
Evolution has been a perennial topic
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進化論在TED研討會上
01:34
here at the TED Conference,
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一直是個常被討論的主題，
01:37
but I want to give you today
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但是我今天是要以一個醫師的觀點
01:39
one doctor's take on the subject.
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來討論這個主題。
01:41
The great 20th-century geneticist,
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20世紀一名偉大的遺傳學家
01:43
T.G. Dobzhansky,
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费奥多西·多布然斯基，
01:45
who was also a communicant
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他同時是俄國東正教
01:47
in the Russian Orthodox Church,
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的一名傳信者，
01:49
once wrote an essay that he titled
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他曾寫了一篇文章，
01:52
"Nothing in Biology Makes Sense
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標題是〈生物學中沒有什麼是有道理的 --
01:55
Except in the Light of Evolution."
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除了按照進化論的那些〉。
01:58
Now if you are one of those
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現在，如果你是那些
02:00
who does not accept the evidence for biological evolution,
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不接受生物進化論的證據的人，
02:03
this would be a very good time to turn off your hearing aid,
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現在是關掉你的助聽器的好時機，
02:06
take out your personal communications device --
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拿出你的個人通訊設備 --
02:08
I give you permission --
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我准許你們這樣做 --
02:10
and perhaps take another look at Kathryn Schultz's book on being wrong,
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或許你該再看一下凱瑟琳• 舒爾茨寫有關犯錯的那本書，
02:13
because nothing in the rest of this talk
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因為接下來要講的東西
02:15
is going to make any sense whatsoever to you.
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對你來說都是沒有任何意義的。
02:18
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:20
But if you do accept
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但是如果你是
02:22
biological evolution,
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接受生物進化論的，
02:25
consider this:
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仔細想想:
02:27
is it just about the past,
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它只跟過去有關嗎，
02:29
or is it about the future?
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還是它也跟未來有關?
02:31
Does it apply to others,
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它是適用於他人嗎，
02:33
or does it apply to us?
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還是也適用於我們?
02:36
This is another look at the tree of life.
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這是生命之樹，生物的樹狀圖。
02:39
In this picture,
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在這分支圖當中可以看到,
02:41
I've put a bush with a center branching out in all directions,
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我把它由一個中心點往各個方向分支出去，
02:44
because if you look at the edges
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因為如果你看到這個生命之樹
02:46
of the tree of life,
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各個分支的末端，
02:48
every existing species
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以進化論的角度來說
02:50
at the tips of those branches
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每個分支末端的物種
02:52
has succeeded in evolutionary terms:
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都是成功的案例,因為:
02:54
it has survived;
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它生存了下來、
02:56
it has demonstrated a fitness
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它展現了其適合在它生長環境中
02:58
to its environment.
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生存的條件。
03:00
The human part of this branch,
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在這個分支的末端
03:03
way out on one end,
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有關人類的部份，
03:06
is, of course, the one that we are most interested in.
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理所當然是我們最關心的部份。
03:10
We branch off of a common ancestor
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在6至8百萬年前，
03:12
to modern chimpanzees
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我們從一個較低層級的祖先
03:14
about six or eight million years ago.
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分支出來成了現代的黑猩猩。
03:17
In the interval,
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在這期間，
03:19
there have been perhaps 20 or 25
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大概出現過20至25種
03:21
different species of hominids.
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不同形式的人類祖先。
03:24
Some have come and gone.
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其中有一些已經不存在。
03:27
We have been here for about 130,000 years.
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而我們已經生存了130,000年。
03:31
It may seem like we're quite remote
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我們或許看似跟生命之樹中
03:33
from other parts of this tree of life,
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其他的分支隔了很遠，
03:36
but actually, for the most part,
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但實際情形是，大致上來說，
03:39
the basic machinery of our cells
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我們的細胞機構
03:42
is pretty much the same.
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幾乎是一模一樣的。
03:44
Do you realize that we can take advantage
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你知不知道我們可以藉由
03:47
and commandeer the machinery of a common bacterium
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一種低等細菌體的細胞機構
03:50
to produce the protein of human insulin
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來製造人類胰島素的一種蛋白質
03:53
used to treat diabetics?
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來治療糖尿病嗎?
03:55
This is not like human insulin;
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它不是跟人類的胰島素類似而已，
03:57
this is the same protein
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它是跟你胰臟分泌出來的
03:59
that is chemically indistinguishable
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胰島素裡面的一種蛋白質
04:01
from what comes out of your pancreas.
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完全一樣。
04:06
And speaking of bacteria,
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講到細菌，
04:08
do you realize that each of us carries in our gut
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你知道我們腸子裡的細菌數量
04:11
more bacteria
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比我們身體所有細胞的數量
04:13
than there are cells in the rest of our body?
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還要多嗎?
04:15
Maybe 10 times more.
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大概有10倍之多。
04:17
I mean think of it,
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我說，想想看，
04:19
when Antonio Damasio asks about your self-image,
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當安東尼奧• 達馬斯奧在問你對於自我的形象的時候，
04:22
do you think about the bacteria?
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你有想到這些細菌嗎?
04:26
Our gut is a wonderfully hospitable environment
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我們的腸子是一個非常適合
04:28
for those bacteria.
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這些細菌生長的環境。
04:30
It's warm, it's dark, it's moist,
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它很溫暖、很陰暗、很潮濕，
04:32
it's very cozy.
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非常的舒適。
04:34
And you're going to provide all the nutrition that they could possibly want
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而且那些細菌完全不需要任何工夫,
04:36
with no effort on their part.
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你就會為它們提供任何需要的營養。
04:38
It's really like an Easy Street for bacteria,
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這簡直是細菌的天堂，
04:41
with the occasional interruption
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除了偶爾會被
04:44
of the unintended forced rush to the exit.
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強迫性的推向出口。
04:46
But otherwise,
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除此之外，
04:49
you are a wonderful environment for those bacteria,
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你就是這些細菌最完美的生長環境，
04:52
just as they are essential to your life.
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而這些細菌對你也一樣重要。
04:55
They help in the digestion of essential nutrients,
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它們幫助消化分解一些必要的營養素。
04:58
and they protect you against certain diseases.
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它們也保護你不受某些疾病的侵襲。
05:02
But what will come in the future?
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但是未來會是怎麼樣呢?
05:04
Are we at some kind of evolutionary equipoise
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身為一個物種，我們的演進
05:07
as a species?
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已經達到一種平衡了嗎?
05:09
Or, are we destined
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又或者，我們就是註定
05:11
to become something different --
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要變得不一樣 --
05:13
something, perhaps, even better adapted
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要變得更加能夠適應
05:16
to the environment?
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外在的環境?
05:18
Now let's take a step back in time
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現在我們回朔到140億年前，
05:21
to the Big Bang, 14 billion years ago --
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宇宙大爆炸 --
05:24
the Earth, the solar system,
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45億年前，
05:26
about four and a half billion years --
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地球與太陽系的形成 --
05:29
the first signs of proto-life,
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30~40億年前，
05:31
maybe three to four billion years ago on Earth --
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第一次出現原始生命的跡象 --
05:33
the first multi-celled organisms,
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大概8~10億年前，
05:36
perhaps as much
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第一個多細胞生物
05:38
as 800 or a billion years ago --
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誕生了 --
05:41
and then the human species,
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最後，在這130,000年來
05:43
finally emerging
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人類這個物種
05:45
in the last 130,000 years.
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終於出現了。
05:48
In this vast unfinished symphony of the universe,
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宇宙就像首未完成的交響樂，
05:51
life on Earth is like a brief measure;
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地球上的生命就像其中幾個小節；
05:54
the animal kingdom,
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動物王國，
05:56
like a single measure;
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就像其中一個小節；
05:59
and human life,
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而人類，
06:01
a small grace note.
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就像其中一個音符而已。
06:03
That was us.
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這就是我們。
06:06
That also constitutes the entertainment portion of this talk,
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這也是這個研討會中較有娛樂性的部分，
06:08
so I hope you enjoyed it.
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希望你們有感受到。
06:10
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
06:12
Now when I was a freshman in college,
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我在大學一年級的時候
06:15
I took my first biology class.
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上了我人生中第一堂生物課。
06:17
I was fascinated
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生物學的高雅及美麗
06:19
by the elegance and beauty of biology.
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深深的吸引了我。
06:22
I became enamored of the power of evolution,
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我變得非常地著迷於進化的力量，
06:25
and I realized something very fundamental:
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並且我了解到了一些很基本的事情:
06:27
in most of the existence of life
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在大部分現行存在的單細胞有機體
06:29
in single-celled organisms,
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的生命當中，
06:31
each cell simply divides,
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每個細胞就這樣簡單的分裂，
06:33
and all of the genetic energy of that cell
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然後該細胞中所有的基因能量
06:36
is carried on in both daughter cells.
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就被帶到了它的子細胞。
06:39
But at the time multi-celled organisms come online,
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但是到了多細胞有機體的出現之後
06:43
things start to change.
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就變的不一樣了。
06:45
Sexual reproduction enters the picture.
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有性生殖開始出現。
06:48
And very importantly,
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而且非常重要的是，
06:50
with the introduction of sexual reproduction
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透過可以將基因傳遞給後代的
06:53
that passes on the genome,
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有性生殖，
06:55
the rest of the body
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身體的其他部位
06:57
becomes expendable.
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變得可以被消耗的。
06:59
In fact, you could say
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事實上，你可以說
07:02
that the inevitability of the death of our bodies
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在進化的時間線上，
07:05
enters in evolutionary time
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我們身體最終會凋零死亡的必然性
07:07
at the same moment
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跟有性生殖的開始
07:09
as sexual reproduction.
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是同時出現的。
07:11
Now I have to confess,
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現在我必須說，
07:13
when I was a college undergraduate,
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當我還是大學生的時候，
07:15
I thought, okay, sex/death, sex/death, death for sex --
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我想，好吧，性/死亡，性/死亡，為了性而死亡--
07:19
it seemed pretty reasonable at the time,
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在當時似乎是非常有道理的，
07:22
but with each passing year,
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但一年一年過去，
07:24
I've come to have increasing doubts.
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我開始有愈來愈多的懷疑。
07:26
I've come to understand the sentiments of George Burns,
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我開始理解喬治• 伯恩斯的思想，
07:29
who was performing still in Las Vegas
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他當時還在拉斯維加斯表演，
07:31
well into his 90s.
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直到他90多歲。
07:33
And one night, there's a knock at his hotel room door.
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一天晚上，有人敲他下榻旅館的門。
07:35
He answers the door.
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他應了門。
07:37
Standing before him is a gorgeous, scantily clad showgirl.
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站在門口的是個非常美麗又穿的很少的舞女。
07:40
She looks at him and says,
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他看著他說：
07:42
"I'm here for super sex."
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「我是來跟你消魂的做愛的。 」
07:45
"That's fine," says George, "I'll take the soup."
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「好吧」，喬治說，「我就喝湯吧」" ("super sex超級性交" 發音似 "soup or sex湯或是性交")
07:48
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
07:52
I came to realize,
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我開始意識到
07:54
as a physician,
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作為一個醫師，
07:56
that I was working toward a goal
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一直以來我努力的目標與
07:59
which was different from the goal of evolution --
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進化論的目標是不一樣的--
08:02
not necessarily contradictory, just different.
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不見得互相違背，但就是不同。
08:05
I was trying to preserve the body.
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我一直嘗試去保存身體。
08:07
I wanted to keep us healthy.
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我想要我們保持健康。
08:09
I wanted to restore health from disease.
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我想要使我們從疾病中恢復健康。
08:12
I wanted us to live long and healthy lives.
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我想要我們活的又長久又健康。
08:15
Evolution is all about passing on the genome
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而進化全是為了把基因
08:18
to the next generation,
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傳遞給下一代，
08:20
adapting and surviving
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一代接著一代
08:23
through generation after generation.
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適應並存活下去。
08:25
From an evolutionary point of view,
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從進化的觀點來看，
08:28
you and I are like the booster rockets
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我們就像是帶有推進器的火箭，
08:30
designed to send the genetic payload
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被設計來把"基因"載送到
08:32
into the next level of orbit
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下一層的軌道
08:34
and then drop off into the sea.
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然後落下掉進海裡。
08:37
I think we would all understand the sentiment that Woody Allen expressed
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我想我們都應該可以了解伍迪•艾倫所說的，
08:40
when he said, "I don't want to achieve immortality through my work.
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他說：「 我不想透過我的成就而不朽。」
08:44
I want to achieve it through not dying."
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「 我想透過不死而不朽。」
08:46
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
08:49
Evolution does not necessarily
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進化，不一定
08:52
favor the longest-lived.
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是偏向活得最久的。
08:54
It doesn't necessarily favor the biggest
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他不一定偏向最大的、
08:56
or the strongest or the fastest,
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最強壯的或是最快速的，
08:58
and not even the smartest.
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甚至也不偏向最聰明的。
09:00
Evolution favors
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進化，偏向
09:02
those creatures best adapted
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那些最能夠適應
09:05
to their environment.
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其環境的生物。
09:07
That is the sole test
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它完全是考驗著
09:09
of survival and success.
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成功存活下去的能力。
09:11
At the bottom of the ocean,
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在海底，
09:13
bacteria that are thermophilic
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耐高溫的細菌
09:15
and can survive at the steam vent heat
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可以存活在熱蒸汽的環境；
09:18
that would otherwise produce, if fish were there,
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如果魚在那種環境，
09:21
sous-vide cooked fish,
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就會慢慢的被煮熟 (sous-vide法式真空低溫(約60度C)煮法)；
09:23
nevertheless, have managed
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然而，它們卻可以
09:25
to make that a hospitable environment for them.
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適應並接受那樣的環境。
09:30
So what does this mean,
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這說明了什麼呢?
09:33
as we look back at what has happened in evolution,
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當我們回頭看看進化的過程發生了什麼事情，
09:36
and as we think about the place again
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當我們再次想想人類在進化中
09:39
of humans in evolution,
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扮演的角色，
09:42
and particularly as we look ahead
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尤其是向前看到
09:45
to the next phase,
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下一個階段，
09:47
I would say
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我會跟你說
09:49
that there are a number of possibilities.
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有許多的可能性。
09:52
The first is that we will not evolve.
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第一種是我們停止進化。
09:57
We have reached
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我們已經達到
09:59
a kind of equipoise.
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一種平衡。
10:01
And the reasoning behind that would be,
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這背後的原因是，
10:03
first, we have, through medicine,
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首先，我們透過醫學
10:06
managed to preserve a lot of genes
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保存下來很多本來
10:08
that would otherwise be selected out
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會被淘汰、從人口中消失
10:10
and be removed from the population.
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的那些基因。
10:12
And secondly, we as a species
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再者，我們是一個能夠
10:14
have so configured our environment
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配置環境的物種，
10:17
that we have managed to make it adapt to us
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就跟我們適應環境一樣，
10:20
as well as we adapt to it.
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我們讓環境來適應我們。
10:23
And by the way, we immigrate and circulate
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另外，我們因為大量的
10:25
and intermix so much
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移民、流通以及混合，
10:27
that you can't any longer
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我們已經不是相互隔離的，
10:29
have the isolation that is necessary
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而這又正是進化發生
10:31
for evolution to take place.
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的必要條件。
10:34
A second possibility
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第二種可能
10:36
is that there will be evolution of the traditional kind,
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就是傳統的進化方式，
10:39
natural, imposed by the forces of nature.
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自然的、由自然的力量推進的。
10:44
And the argument here would be
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這個可能性的論點在於
10:46
that the wheels of evolution grind slowly,
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進化雖然很緩慢，
10:49
but they are inexorable.
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但是是無法被阻擋或改變的。
10:51
And as far as isolation goes,
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就隔離性來說，
10:53
when we as a species
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身為一個物種，當我們殖民到
10:55
do colonize distant planets,
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其他遙遠的星球時，
10:57
there will be the isolation and the environmental changes
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就會有環境的變化並有其隔離性，
11:00
that could produce evolution
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一種自然進化
11:03
in the natural way.
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必要的隔離性。
11:05
But there's a third possibility,
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但是有第三種可能性，
11:07
an enticing, intriguing and frightening possibility.
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一種吸引人、引人入勝卻也令人害怕的可能性。
11:10
I call it neo-evolution --
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我把它稱作新進化論--
11:12
the new evolution
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這種新的進化論
11:14
that is not simply natural,
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不只是單純自然的發展，
11:16
but guided and chosen
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還會因為我們，做為單一個體，
11:19
by us as individuals
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所做的一些決定
11:22
in the choices that we will make.
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而被引導、發展的。
11:24
Now how could this come about?
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要怎麼讓這個成真呢?
11:27
How could it be possible that we would do this?
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如何能做到這樣呢?
11:30
Consider, first, the reality
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第一個考量的是
11:33
that people today, in some cultures,
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現在，有一其他些文化的人
11:36
are making choices about their offspring.
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對他們的後代做了一些選擇。
11:39
They're, in some cultures,
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在一些文化中，
11:41
choosing to have more males than females.
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他們選擇生男性較多於生女性。
11:44
It's not necessarily good for the society,
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這樣對社會不見得是好的，
11:46
but it's what the individual and the family are choosing.
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但卻是個體與家庭的選擇。
11:50
Think also,
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再想想，
11:52
if it were possible ever
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如果能夠選擇
11:56
for you to choose, not simply to choose the sex of your child,
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不僅是選擇小孩的性別，
11:59
but for you in your body
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還可以選擇在你自己身體中
12:02
to make the genetic adjustments
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對那些基因進行一些的調整，
12:05
that would cure or prevent diseases.
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治癒疾病或是預防一些疾病的發生。
12:07
What if you could make the genetic changes
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如果可以改變基因
12:10
to eliminate diabetes or Alzheimer's
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來杜絕糖尿病或是阿茲海默症(老人癡呆)
12:13
or reduce the risk of cancer
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或是降低罹患癌症的風險
12:15
or eliminate stroke?
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或是杜絕中風的發生呢?
12:17
Wouldn't you want
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難道你不會想要
12:19
to make those changes
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對你的基因
12:21
in your genes?
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做那些改變嗎?
12:23
If we look ahead,
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如果我們向前看，
12:25
these kind of changes
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這些改變
12:27
are going to be increasingly possible.
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是愈來愈有可能達到的。
12:32
The Human Genome Project
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人類基因組計畫
12:34
started in 1990,
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1990年就開始了，
12:36
and it took 13 years.
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它花了13年的時間。
12:38
It cost 2.7 billion dollars.
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花了超過27億美元。
12:43
The year after it was finished in 2004,
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在2004年，該計畫結束一年後
12:46
you could do the same job
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你只需要花2000萬美元及3~4個月的時間
12:48
for 20 million dollars in three to four months.
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便可以做出一樣的成果。
12:51
Today, you can have a complete sequence
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今天，你只需要花費大約20000美元
12:54
of the three billion base pairs in the human genome
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以及大概一個禮拜的時間
12:56
at a cost of about 20,000 dollars
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就可以得到完整的基因序列
12:59
and in the space of about a week.
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包含了人體30億個鹼基對的基因序列。
13:01
It won't be very long
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再過不了多久
13:03
before the reality will be
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應該就可以以1000美元
13:05
the 1,000-dollar human genome,
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得到你的基因序列，
13:07
and it will be increasingly available for everyone.
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並且會愈來愈普及大眾。
13:11
Just a week ago,
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就在一個禮拜前，
13:13
the National Academy of Engineering
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美國工程學院
13:15
awarded its Draper Prize
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頒發了它的查爾斯•斯塔克•德雷珀獎獎
13:17
to Francis Arnold and Willem Stemmer,
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給弗朗西斯•阿諾以及威廉•史丹摩，
13:19
two scientists who independently developed techniques
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兩位獨立發展出
13:23
to encourage the natural process of evolution to work faster
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使自然進化更加快速
13:27
and to lead to desirable proteins
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並很有效率的
13:29
in a more efficient way --
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產生我們所想要的蛋白質--
13:31
what Frances Arnold calls "directed evolution."
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弗朗西斯•阿諾稱之為"引導進化"。
13:35
A couple of years ago, the Lasker Prize
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幾年前拉斯克奖
13:38
was awarded to the scientist Shinya Yamanaka
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被頒發給科學家山中伸彌的研究，
13:41
for his research
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在其研究中
13:43
in which he took an adult skin cell,
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它取出了一個成人的細胞，
13:45
a fibroblast,
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一個神經膠原母細胞，
13:47
and by manipulating just four genes,
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透過只改變了四個基因
13:50
he induced that cell
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他使這個細胞
13:52
to revert to a pluripotential stem cell --
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還原到原始多能幹細胞--
13:56
a cell potentially capable
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一個可以長成
13:59
of becoming any cell in your body.
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你身體中任何一種細胞的細胞。
14:02
These changes are coming.
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這些改變就要來臨。
14:04
The same technology
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使用讓細菌製造胰島素
14:06
that has produced the human insulin in bacteria
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一樣的技術就能
14:08
can make viruses
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製造出病毒，
14:10
that will not only protect you against themselves,
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一種不只讓你能夠抵抗它們，
14:13
but induce immunity against other viruses.
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甚至讓你對其他的病毒也免疫的病毒。
14:15
Believe it or not,
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你是否相信，
14:17
there's an experimental trial going on
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有個實驗正在研究
14:19
with vaccine against influenza
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由菸草植物細胞培育出來的
14:22
that has been grown in the cells of a tobacco plant.
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一種流行性感冒的疫苗。
14:26
Can you imagine something good coming out of tobacco?
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你可以想像菸草也能提供有益的東西嗎?
14:30
These are all reality today,
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這些都是現今可以實現的，
14:33
and [in] the future, will be evermore possible.
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而在未來，有更多的可能性會被實現。
14:36
Imagine then
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想像一下到時候
14:38
just two other little changes.
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能夠改變的兩個小東西。
14:41
You can change the cells in your body,
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你可以改變你身體裡的細胞，
14:43
but what if you could change the cells in your offspring?
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但如果你可以改變你下一代的細胞呢?
14:47
What if you could change the sperm and the ova,
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如果你可以對精子和卵子進行改變，
14:49
or change the newly fertilized egg,
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或是對剛受精的受精卵進行改變，
14:52
and give your offspring a better chance
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讓你的下一代
14:54
at a healthier life --
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有更健康的生命--
14:56
eliminate the diabetes, eliminate the hemophilia,
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杜絕糖尿病、血友病，
14:58
reduce the risk of cancer?
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降低罹患癌症的機率呢?
15:00
Who doesn't want healthier children?
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有誰不想要更健康的小孩呢?
15:03
And then, that same analytic technology,
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到時候，這些能做出改變、
15:06
that same engine of science
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預防疾病的科學分析技術
15:08
that can produce
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同樣的科學技術
15:10
the changes to prevent disease,
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能讓我們
15:12
will also enable us
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調整並取得一些
15:15
to adopt super-attributes,
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超級屬性，
15:17
hyper-capacities --
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超高的容量--
15:19
that better memory.
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更好的記憶力。
15:21
Why not have the quick wit
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何不快速擁有像
15:23
of a Ken Jennings,
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肯•詹寧斯(美國〈危險邊緣〉機智問答節目冠軍) 的機智，
15:25
especially if you can augment it
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特別是如果你能夠把它再加上
15:27
with the next generation of the Watson machine?
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下一代沃森機器的能力呢? (沃森機器為IBM推出的人工智慧電腦，在〈危險邊緣〉中挑戰肯•詹寧斯)
15:30
Why not have the quick twitch muscle
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何不擁有快速收縮的肌肉，
15:33
that will enable you to run faster and longer?
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讓你可以跑的更快、更遠?
15:36
Why not live longer?
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何不活的更久?
15:40
These will be irresistible.
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這些變化都讓人無法拒絕。
15:42
And when we are at a position
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當我們在一個可以傳給下一代、
15:45
where we can pass it on to the next generation,
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選擇我們想要取得的屬性
15:47
and we can adopt the attributes we want,
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的位置上時，
15:50
we will have converted
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我們就把
15:53
old-style evolution
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傳統的進化論推進到
15:55
into neo-evolution.
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新的進化論。
15:57
We'll take a process
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我們將可以把一般
15:59
that normally might require 100,000 years,
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需要100,000年的進化過程
16:01
and we can compress it down to a thousand years --
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壓縮到1000年--
16:04
and maybe even in the next 100 years.
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甚至在接下來的100年就達成。
16:07
These are choices
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這些將是在你的孫子
16:09
that your grandchildren,
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或是他們的孫子
16:11
or their grandchildren,
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那個年代
16:13
are going to have before them.
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就可以擁有的選擇。
16:16
Will we use these choices
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我們會把這些選擇用來
16:19
to make a society that is better,
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讓這個社會更好、
16:22
that is more successful, that is kinder?
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更成功、更和藹嗎?
16:25
Or, will we selectively choose different attributes
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還是我們會選擇性的
16:28
that we want for some of us
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選擇那些我們自己想擁有
16:30
and not for others of us?
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卻不想給其他人擁有的那些屬性呢?
16:32
Will we make a society
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我們會把這個社會
16:35
that is more boring and more uniform,
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變的更千編一律、更無聊，
16:38
or more robust and more versatile?
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還是變的更健全、更多元化呢?
16:41
These are the kinds of questions
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這些是我們將來
16:43
that we will have to face.
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必須面對的問題。
16:45
And most profoundly of all,
391
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而更深層的問題是，
16:47
will we ever be able to develop the wisdom,
392
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我們究竟能夠成長、發展,
16:50
and to inherit the wisdom,
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及傳承下去,
16:52
that we'll need to make these choices wisely?
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並能夠明智地做出這些選擇嗎?
16:55
For better or worse,
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不論是好是壞，
16:57
and sooner than you may think,
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而且比我們想像來得更快，
16:59
these choices will be up to us.
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我們將會面臨這些選擇。
17:02
Thank you.
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謝謝。
17:04
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Harvey Fineberg - Health policy expertHarvey Fineberg studies medical decisionmaking -- from how we roll out new medical technology, to how we cope with new illnesses and threatened epidemics.
Why you should listen
As president of the Institute of Medicine, Harvey Fineberg thinks deeply about new medicine, both its broad possibilities and the moral and philosophical questions that each new treatment brings. How do we decide which treatment to use in a tricky case -- both individually and as a community? Is it fair that the richest hospitals get the best healthcare? Who should bear the risk (and gain the reward) of trying the newest treatments?
Fineberg helped found and served as president of the Society for Medical Decision Making and also served as consultant to the World Health Organization. He was provost of Harvard from 1997 to 2001, following thirteen years as Dean of the Harvard School of Public Health. He has devoted most of his academic career to the fields of health policy and medical decision making. His past research has focused on the process of policy development and implementation, assessment of medical technology, evaluation and use of vaccines, and dissemination of medical innovations.
Harvey Fineberg | Speaker | TED.com