TED@State Street Boston
Roger Stein: A bold new way to fund drug research
罗杰 斯泰因: 资助新药研究的一条大胆创新之路
Filmed:
Readability: 3.9
952,929 views
信不信由你，有大约20年储存量，能够救命的药物现在还躺在实验室里，未经试验。为什么？因为他们没办法得到赞助来进行试验，金融风险太大。罗杰斯泰因是一个学金融的，但是他想到了降低风险的办法。他和一些MIT的同僚研究出了一个很有前途的金融模型，并且这个方法能让几百种新药进入实验流水线。
Roger Stein - Financial management expert
Roger Stein wants to bring financial engineering to the world of drug funding. Full bio
Roger Stein wants to bring financial engineering to the world of drug funding. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So this is a picture of my dad and me
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这张照片是我和我爸爸
00:16
at the beach in Far Rockaway,
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在Far Rockaway的海滩上
00:18
or actually Rockaway Park.
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或叫Rockaway公园
00:20
I'm the one with the blond hair.
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我是金头发的那个,
00:23
My dad's the guy with the cigarette.
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那个拿着烟的是我爸爸
00:25
It was the '60s. A lot of people smoked back then.
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那是在六十年代，很多人吸烟
00:27
In the summer of 2009,
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在二零零九年的夏天
00:29
my dad was diagnosed with lung cancer.
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我爸被诊断出了肺癌
00:34
Cancer is one of those things
that actually touches everybody.
that actually touches everybody.
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癌症听上去让每个人难过
00:37
If you're a man in the United States of the America,
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如果你是一名美国男性
00:40
you've got about a one in two chance
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在你的一生中，会有二分之一的机会
00:42
of being diagnosed with cancer during your lifetime.
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被诊断出癌症
00:45
If you're a woman, you've got
about a one in three chance
about a one in three chance
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如果你是一名女性，那么你有三分之一的机会
00:48
of being diagnosed with cancer.
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被诊断是癌症
00:50
Everybody knows somebody
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每个人的身边都会有人
00:51
who's been diagnosed with cancer.
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被诊断出癌症
00:55
Now, my dad's doing better today,
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现在，我爸爸好了很多
00:56
and part of the reason for that is that
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有一部分原因是
01:00
he was able to participate in the trial
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他参与了一种新药
01:02
of an experimental new drug
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的尝试
01:03
that happened to be specially formulated
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那药是用特别配方做成的
01:05
and very good for his particular kind of cancer.
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对他那种癌症很有效
01:06
There are over 200 kinds of cancer.
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世界上有两百多种癌症
01:10
And what I want to talk about today is
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那么我今天的主题就是
01:12
how we can help more people like my dad,
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为了帮助像我爸爸那些癌症患者,
01:15
because we have to change the way
we think about raising money
we think about raising money
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我们必须改变
01:18
to fund cancer research.
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为癌症筹资的方式
01:21
So a while after my dad was diagnosed,
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在我爸爸被诊断出癌症后不久
01:23
I was having coffee with my friend Andrew Lo.
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我和我的朋友Andrew Lo在一起喝咖啡
01:26
He's the head of the Laboratory
for Financial Engineering at MIT,
for Financial Engineering at MIT,
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他是MIT金融工程实验室的头
01:29
where I also have a position,
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我也是实验室的一员
01:31
and we were talking about cancer.
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当时我们在谈论癌症
01:32
And Andrew had been doing
his own bits of research,
his own bits of research,
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Andrew一直在做各种研究
01:35
and one of the things that he had been told
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有人告诉过他一个问题
01:37
and that he'd learned from studying the literature
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他也从文献中得知
01:42
was that there's actually a big bottleneck.
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研究新药的过程中会遇到瓶颈
01:44
It's very difficult to develop new drugs,
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导致研究新药非常困难
01:46
and the reason it's difficult to develop new drugs
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而困难的原因在于
01:48
is because in the early stages of drug development,
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新药研究的早期阶段
01:50
the drugs are very risky,
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研究药品投资风险大,
01:51
and they're very expensive.
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而且十分昂贵
01:53
So Andrew asked me if I'd want to
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Andrew问我是否想要
01:55
maybe work with him a bit,
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和他合作
01:56
work on some of the math and the analytics
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在数学分析方面
01:57
and see if we could figure out
something we could do.
something we could do.
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看看我们能做些什么
02:01
Now I'm not a scientist.
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我不是一个科学家
02:03
You know, I don't know how to build a drug.
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我不懂怎样制药
02:05
And none of my coauthors, Andrew Lo
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我的合作者Andrew Lo
02:07
or Jose Maria Fernandez or David Fagnan --
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Jose Maria Fernandez和David Fagnan
02:10
none of those guys -- are scientists either.
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所有人都不是科学家
02:13
We don't know the first thing about
how to make a cancer drug.
how to make a cancer drug.
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我们甚至不知道制药第一步该干什么
02:16
But we know a little bit about risk mitigation
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但我们略知如何降低风险
02:18
and a little bit about financial engineering,
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和一点儿金融工程,
02:20
and so we started thinking, what could we do?
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所以我们开始想，我们能干嘛呢
02:23
What I'm going to tell you about is some work
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我要告诉你们的是
02:25
we've been doing over the last couple years
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我们这几年做的工作
02:27
that we think could fundamentally change the way
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从本质上改变了
02:29
research for cancer and lots
of other things gets done.
of other things gets done.
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癌症研究和其他事物的做法
02:33
We want to let the research drive the funding,
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我们想让研究促进筹资
02:36
not the other way around.
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而不是资金赞助研究
02:38
So in order to get started, let me tell you
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那么现在，我就告诉你们
02:39
how you get a drug financed.
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怎样让新药研究得到资助
02:41
Imagine that you're in your lab --
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想象你在你的实验室里
02:43
you're a scientist, you're not like me --
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不像我，你是个科学家
02:45
you're a scientist, and you've developed
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你发明了一种
02:46
a new compound that you think might be
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你认为能
02:49
therapeutic for somebody with cancer.
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对某些癌症起作用的化合物
02:52
Well, what you do is, you test in animals,
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那么下一步是在动物身上测试
02:54
you test in test tubes,
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在试管里测试
02:55
but there's this notion of going from the bench
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这里有一个贯例，是让这种药从实验室
02:57
to the bedside,
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应用到临床
02:58
and in order to get from the bench, the lab,
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为了让这种药从实验室
03:00
to the bedside, to the patients,
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应用到临床, 到病人,
03:02
you've got to get the drug tested.
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你必须测试药性
03:04
And the way the drug gets tested is through a series
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测试药性需要进行一系列,大量的
03:06
of, basically, experiments,
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试验
03:07
through these large, they're called trials,
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通过这些大量的试验,
03:09
that they do to determine whether the drug is safe
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来确定药是否安全
03:12
and whether it works and all these things.
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以及它是否有用等等
03:14
So the FDA has a very specific protocol.
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所以美国食品和药物管理局有一套特定的标准
03:16
In the first phase of this testing,
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在测试的第一阶段
03:18
which is called testing for toxicity,
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是测试药物的毒性
03:20
it's called Phase I.
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被称作为第一阶段
03:22
In the first phase, you give
the drug to healthy people
the drug to healthy people
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在第一阶段，把药分发给健康的人群
03:25
and you see if it actually makes them sick.
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来测试药物是否让他们生病
03:28
In other words, are the side effects just so severe
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换句话说，如果副作用
03:30
that no matter how much good it does,
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大于药品有效性, 不管药多好,
03:31
it's not going to be worth it?
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也不值得研发
03:33
Does it cause heart attacks, kill people,
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药物是否会引起人们的心脏病发作，让人死亡，
03:35
liver failure, this kind of thing?
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肝功能衰竭，诸如此类
03:36
And it turns out, that's a pretty high hurdle.
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结果表明，这一阶级是一个巨大的障碍
03:38
About a third of all drugs drop out at that point.
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三分之一的药物在此阶段被淘汰
03:41
In the next phase, you test
to see if the drug's effective,
to see if the drug's effective,
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下一阶段，是测试药物有效性
03:44
and what you do there is you
give it to people with cancer
give it to people with cancer
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这一阶段是给那些罹患癌症的病人服用此药,
03:46
and you see if it actually makes them better.
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看疗效如何
03:47
And that's also a higher hurdle. People drop out.
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这又是一个巨大障碍，很多病人不愿参与
03:49
And in the third phase, you actually
test it on a very large sample,
test it on a very large sample,
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在第三阶段, 把药用于大量人群
03:52
and what you're trying to determine
is what the right dose is, and also,
is what the right dose is, and also,
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来确定用药量，
03:55
is it better than what's available today?
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同时和现有药品有效性做比较,
03:57
If not, then why build it?
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如果不如意,干嘛要生产它
03:59
When you're done with all that,
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当完成了所有步骤,
04:01
what you have is a very small percentage of drugs
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只有一小部分药物
04:04
that start the process actually
come out the other side.
come out the other side.
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通过了测试
04:07
So those blue bottles, those blue bottles save lives,
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所以，就只有这些蓝瓶的能救人
04:10
and they're also worth billions,
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他们价值几十亿
04:12
sometimes billions a year.
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有时候甚至每年几十亿
04:14
So now here's a question:
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问题出来了
04:16
if I were to ask you, for example,
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如果我问你，例如
04:19
to make a one-time investment of, say,
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做一次性的投资
04:21
200 million dollars
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两亿美元
04:23
to buy one of those bottles,
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买其中的一瓶药
04:25
so 200 million dollars up front, one time,
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初始投资两亿，一次性
04:27
to buy one of those bottles,
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买其中一瓶
04:28
I won't tell you which one it is,
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我不会告诉你是哪一瓶
04:30
and in 10 years, I'll tell you whether
you have one of the blue ones.
you have one of the blue ones.
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十年后，我会告诉你,你买的是否是蓝瓶的.
04:34
Does that sound like a good deal for anybody?
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对大家来说，这听上去划算吗？
04:36
No. No, right?
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不是，对吧
04:37
And of course, it's a very, very risky trial position,
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而事实上这是一种风险很大的投资
04:39
and that's why it's very hard to get funding,
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这就是药物研究很难得到资助的原因
04:41
but to a first approximation,
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但是就概算来说
04:42
that's actually the proposal.
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这确实是这个提议
04:44
You have to fund these things
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你必须从早期开始投资
04:46
from the early stages on. It takes a long time.
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而且花很长的时间
04:49
So Andrew said to me, he said,
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所以Andrew对我说
04:52
"What if we stop thinking about these as drugs?
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“如果我们不把这种产品当做药物来看呢？”
04:54
What if we start thinking about
them as financial assets?"
them as financial assets?"
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如果我们把这种投资当做是其他的金融资产来看待
04:57
They've got really weird payoff
structures and all that,
structures and all that,
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他们只是有一个很反常的收益结构而已
04:59
but let's throw everything we know
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那么利用我们知道的
05:01
about financial engineering at them.
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所有关于金融工程的知识,
05:02
Let's see if we can use all the tricks of the trade
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通过市场交易的计巧,
05:04
to figure out how to make these drugs
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把研发这些药物
05:07
work as financial assets?
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视作金融产物
05:10
Let's create a giant fund.
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我们先创建一个巨额基金
05:11
In finance, we know what to do
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在金融界，我们知道
05:13
with assets that are risky.
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怎样处理高风险资产:
05:14
You put them in a portfolio
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把它们放在投资组合中
05:16
and you try to smooth out the returns.
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试着增加平稳的回报
05:17
So we did some math, and it turned out
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我们做了一些数学分析，结果
05:19
you could make this work,
but in order to make it work,
but in order to make it work,
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可行, 但是真正运作起来,
05:21
you need about 80 to 150 drugs.
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需要八十到一百五十种新药
05:24
Now the good news is, there's plenty of drugs
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但是现在有个好消息，市面上有大量新药
05:26
that are waiting to be tested.
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等待测试
05:27
We've been told that there's a backlog
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我们被告知
05:29
of about 20 years of drugs
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大概有积压了20年的药品
05:32
that are waiting to be tested but can't be funded.
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等着被测试但是沒有得到资金
05:34
In fact, that early stage of the funding process,
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事实上，初始阶段的筹资,
05:36
that Phase I and pre-clinical stuff,
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如第一阶段和临床前测试,
05:39
that's actually, in the industry,
called the Valley of Death
called the Valley of Death
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在这个行业里被称为"死亡之谷"
05:41
because it's where drugs go to die.
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因为这些阶段就是药物被淘汱的主要时期
05:43
It's very hard to for them to get through there,
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对新药来说很难通过这些阶段
05:44
and of course, if you can't get through there,
you can't get to the later stages.
you can't get to the later stages.
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当然，如果不能通过这些阶段，也就不能进入下一阶段
05:48
So we did this math, and we figured out, okay,
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所以我们做了数学分析，我们发现,
05:50
well, you know, you need about 80 to, say, 150,
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需要八十到一百五十种新药,
05:53
or something like that, drugs.
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或者类似那样的东西，
05:54
And then we did a little more math, and we said,
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然后我们做了进一步分析,
05:56
okay, well that's a fund of about
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大概需要融资
05:58
three to 15 billion dollars.
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三十亿到一百五十亿
06:01
So we kind of created a new problem
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所以我们又从一个怪圈
06:04
by solving the old one.
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跳进另一个怪圈
06:05
We were able to get rid of the risk,
but now we need a lot of capital,
but now we need a lot of capital,
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我们可以解决风险问题，但是我们现在需要大量资金
06:07
and there's only one place to get that kind of capital,
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只有一个地方可以获得如此多的资金
06:09
the capital markets.
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即"资本市场"
06:11
Venture capitalists don't have it.
Philanthropies don't have it.
Philanthropies don't have it.
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风险投资家没有那么多资金，慈善家也没有
06:13
But we have to figure out how we can
get people in the capital markets,
get people in the capital markets,
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我们得想办法让那些在金融市场中
06:15
who traditionally don't invest in this stuff,
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通常不热衷投资此类项目的人们
06:17
to want to invest in this stuff.
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甘愿对此进行投资
06:19
So again, financial engineering was helpful here.
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再一次金融工程起到很大作用
06:22
Imagine the megafund actually starts empty,
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想象一下, 这个宠大的基金本身并无价值,
06:25
and what it does is it issues some debt
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它做的只是发售债券
06:27
and some equity,
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和股票,
06:29
and that generates cash flow.
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来产生现金流量
06:30
That cash flow is used, then, to buy
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当有了现金以后，买进
06:32
that big portfolio of drugs that you need,
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所需的药物投资组合
06:34
and those drugs start working their way
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然后药物就可以如期
06:35
through that approval process,
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通过测试阶段,
06:37
and each time they go through
a next phase of approval,
a next phase of approval,
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每一次他们抵达下一阶段
06:39
they gain value.
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他们的价值得到提升
06:39
And most of them don't make it,
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大部分做不到
06:41
but a few of them do,
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只有少数能做到
06:42
and with the ones that gain value, you can sell some,
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那些增值的药物可以出售,
06:45
and when you sell them,
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此时,
06:46
you have money to pay the interest on those bonds,
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获得的利润可以付利息,
06:48
but you also have money to
fund the next round of trials.
fund the next round of trials.
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而且有余钱进行下一阶段的测试
06:50
It's almost self-funding.
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几乎是财政自给.
06:52
You do that for the course of the transaction,
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如此循环下去,
06:55
and when you're done, you liquidate the portfolio,
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当一切完成了，清算这组投资组合,
06:57
pay back the bonds, and you can
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清偿债务, 发放股息,
06:58
give the equity holders a nice return.
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给了股东很好的收益
07:00
So that was the theory, and we talked about it
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但那只是个理论,我们也谈论了一段时间,
07:02
for a bit, we did a bunch of experiments,
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做了一些实验,
07:04
and then we said, let's really try to test it.
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我们很想把它付诸于实际
07:07
We spent the next two years doing research.
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我们用了两年时间做市场调研,
07:10
We talked to hundreds of experts in drug financing
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我们的团队和上百个药物金融和风险投资的
07:13
and venture capital.
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专家谈过
07:15
We talked to people who have developed drugs.
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我们和发明药物的科学家谈过
07:17
We talked to pharmaceutical companies.
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我们也和药物公司谈过
07:19
We actually looked at the data for drugs,
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实际上我们研究了药物的数据
07:22
over 2,000 drugs that had been approved or denied
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超过两千种被通过或淘汰
07:25
or withdrawn,
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或放弃的
07:26
and we also ran millions of simulations.
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我们进行了几百万的数据模拟
07:29
And all that actually took a lot of time.
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当然花费了大量时间
07:32
But when we were done, what we found was something that was sort of surprising.
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当我们完成时,我们发现结果令人吃惊,
07:35
It was actually feasible to structure that fund
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实际上我们的想法是可行的
07:37
such that when you were done structuring it,
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这个基金模式
07:39
you could actually produce low-risk bonds
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能产生出低风险的债券
07:42
that would be attractive to bond holders,
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对于债券持有者来说很有吸引力
07:43
that would give you yields of
about five to eight percent,
about five to eight percent,
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投资收益在百分之五到八
07:46
and you could produce equity
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对于股票，
07:47
that would give equity holders
about a 12-percent return.
about a 12-percent return.
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股东可获得百分之十二的投资收益
07:50
Now those returns aren't going to be attractive
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但是对风险投资者来说
07:51
to a venture capitalist.
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回报还不够
07:53
Venture capitalists are those guys
who want to make those big bets
who want to make those big bets
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风险投资者是那些压的赌注很大
07:55
and get those billion dollar payoffs.
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并且得到几十亿回报的人
07:57
But it turns out, there are lots of other folks
that would be interested in that.
that would be interested in that.
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但结果表明，仍然有很多人对药物投资兴趣浓厚
08:00
That's right in the investment sweet spot
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对退休基金和退休福利计划来说
08:02
of pension funds and 401(k) plans
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以及其他
08:04
and all this other stuff.
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这是最佳的投资计划
08:06
So we published some articles
in the academic press.
in the academic press.
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因此我们在学术刊物上发表了一些文章
08:08
We published articles in medical journals.
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在医学期刊上发表文章
08:11
We published articles in finance journals.
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在财经期刊上发表文章
08:13
But it wasn't until we actually
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但是直到
08:15
got the popular press interested in this
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在一些主流媒体上发表了相关文章,
08:16
that we began to get some traction.
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我们才真正开始得到一些关注
08:19
We wanted to do something more than
just make people aware of it, though.
just make people aware of it, though.
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我们不只是想让人们意识到此问题,
08:22
We wanted people to get involved.
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而且想让人们参与到其中
08:23
So what we did was, we actually
took all of our computer code
took all of our computer code
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所以我们把编程的计算机代码
08:25
and made that available online
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放在了网上
08:27
under an open-source license
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我们申请了开放源代码的许可
08:28
to anybody that wanted it.
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这样大家就都能使用了
08:30
And you guys can download it today
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大家现在就可以下载
08:32
if you want to run your own experiments
to see if this would work.
to see if this would work.
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来试试看这个模型是否可行
08:34
And that was really effective, because people
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实际上它很有帮助，因为试用的人们
08:35
that didn't believe our assumptions
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也许不相信我们的假设
08:37
could try their own assumptions
and see how it would work.
and see how it would work.
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但现在可以自己测验它的可行性
08:40
Now there's an obvious problem, which is,
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现在有一个显著的问题，那就是
08:42
is there enough money in
the world to fund this stuff?
the world to fund this stuff?
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世界上有那么多钱来资助这些项目吗
08:44
I've told you there's enough drugs,
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我们已经知道我们有足够多的试验药物
08:46
but is there enough money?
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但是有足够的钱吗
08:48
There's 100 trillion dollars of capital
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我们有一百兆的资金
08:50
currently invested in fixed-income securities.
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现在存在于固定收益证券中
08:54
That's a hundred thousand billion.
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那可以是一百兆啊
08:58
There's plenty of money.
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太多钱了
08:59
(Laughter)
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笑声
09:03
But what we realized was that it's
more than just money that's required.
more than just money that's required.
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但是我们意识到需要的不仅仅是钱
09:06
We had to get people motivated,
people to get involved,
people to get involved,
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我们必须让大家有信心来参与进来
09:08
and people had to understand this.
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大家也必须要懂得相关知识
09:10
And so we started thinking about all
the different things that could go wrong.
the different things that could go wrong.
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所以我们开始思考可能会出错的地方
09:13
What are all the challenges to doing
this that might get in the way?
this that might get in the way?
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在做的过程中会遇到什么挑战
09:16
And we had a long list, and so what we did was
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我们列了一张很长的单子
09:18
we assigned a bunch of people, including ourselves,
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其中囊括很多人，包括我们自己
09:21
different pieces of this problem,
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细化可能出现的问题
09:23
and we said, could you start
a work stream on credit risk?
a work stream on credit risk?
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我们提出，能不能在信贷危机方面开展工作？
09:26
Could you start a work stream
on the regulatory aspects?
on the regulatory aspects?
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能不能在监管调控下展开工作？
09:28
Could you start a work stream on
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能不能
09:29
how you would actually manage so many projects?
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同时处理很多项目?
09:32
And we had all these experts get together
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我们的专家在一起合计
09:34
and do these different work streams,
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并且分管不同工作
09:35
and then we held a conference.
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在今年夏天
09:38
The conference was held over
the summer, this past summer.
the summer, this past summer.
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2622
我们开了一个会
09:40
It was an invitation-only conference.
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是一个只有邀请者才可参与的会议
09:42
It was sponsored by the American Cancer Society
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会议是由美国癌症协会赞助的
09:44
and done in collaboration
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由国家癌症学会
09:46
with the National Cancer Institute.
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协办
09:48
And we had experts from every field
that we thought would be important,
that we thought would be important,
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我们汇集了各方精英，
09:51
including the government, including
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2095
包括政府和
09:53
people that run research centers and so on,
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1557
那些研究中心负责人等等,
09:54
and for two days they sat around
and heard the reports
and heard the reports
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1989
整整两天，我们坐在一起听取对五种工作研究的报告
09:56
from those five work streams,
and they talked about it.
and they talked about it.
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1916
他们还做了进一步探讨.
09:58
It was the first time
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这是第一次
10:00
that the people who could actually make this happen
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让这件事情成真的人们
10:01
sat across the table from each other
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坐在一起
10:03
and had these conversations.
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2308
讨论可行性
10:05
Now these conferences, it's typical to have a dinner,
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会后有个常规晚宴
10:09
and at that dinner,
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在晚宴上
10:10
you kind of get to know each other,
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我们彼此了解,
10:12
sort of like what we're doing here.
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就像我们现在在这儿一样
10:13
I happened to look out the window,
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我恰好看了看窗外
10:15
and hand on my heart, I looked out the window
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我是很真诚地说这番话，在晚宴当天
10:17
on the night of this conference --
it was the summertime --
it was the summertime --
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我看了窗外，那还是夏天
10:18
and that's what I saw, it was a double rainbow.
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我看到了叠虹
10:21
So I'd like to think it was a good sign.
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我想那是个好兆头
10:24
Since the conference, we've got people working
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自从那次会议以后，在巴黎和旧金山的专家们
10:26
between Paris and San Francisco,
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开始一起合作
10:28
lots of different folks working on this
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很多人一起研究这个项目
10:29
to try to see if we can really make it happen.
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看是否会成真
10:32
We're not looking to start a fund,
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我们不是在拉赞助
10:33
but we want somebody else to do this.
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2178
但是我们希望别人能这样做
10:35
Because, again, I'm not a scientist.
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因为，再次重申，我不是科学家
10:38
I can't build a drug.
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我不会制药
10:40
I'm never going to have enough money
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我也没有那么多钱去
10:41
to fund even one of those trials.
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资助哪怕只是其中一个试验
10:44
But all of us together, with our 401(k)'s,
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但是我们在一起合作，用我们的养老金计划
10:47
with our 529 plans, with our pension plans,
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用我们的529个方案，用我们的退休金
10:49
all of us together can actually fund hundreds of trials
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我们大概能赞助几百个试验
10:52
and get paid well for doing it
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也能收到很好回报
10:54
and save millions of lives like my dad.
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然后拯救像我爸那样的许多病人
10:56
Thank you.
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谢谢大家
10:59
(Applause)
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掌声
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Roger Stein - Financial management expertRoger Stein wants to bring financial engineering to the world of drug funding.
Why you should listen
Roger Stein is a senior lecturer in finance at MIT's Sloan School of Management and a research affiliate at the MIT Laboratory for Financial Engineering. He is also the former chief analytics officer at State Street Global Exchange. He has been working in risk modeling and financial prediction for almost 25 years; his products and services are used widely in industry and have become benchmarks in banking and finance. With MIT colleagues, he is currently collaborating on a new model that uses modern risk management methods and financial engineering techniques to change the way new drug research is funded.
Previously he was managing director of research and academic relations globally for Moody’s Corporation, and prior to that was president of Moody’s Research Labs. He has a Ph.D. from New York University, has coauthored two full-length texts on applied analytics, and has written more than 50 academic articles and papers. He has also been practicing Aikido since 1980.
Roger Stein | Speaker | TED.com