TED2015
David Rothkopf: How fear drives American politics
大卫 罗斯科夫: 美国的政治是如何被恐惧所支配
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华盛顿看起来似乎没有新的想法？相较于谨慎地建设未来，美国政策有时似乎心甘情愿地在恐惧中退缩或故意忽略。专栏作家大卫‧罗斯科夫列出了几件美国领导阶层无法解决的重大事件--从网路犯罪到震撼世界的新科技科技再到现代总体战--并呼吁大家战胜恐惧来提高眼界。
David Rothkopf - Foreign policy strategist
With books and strategies, David Rothkopf helps people navigate the perils and opportunities of our contemporary geopolitical landscape. Full bio
With books and strategies, David Rothkopf helps people navigate the perils and opportunities of our contemporary geopolitical landscape. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
What I'd like to do
is talk to you a little bit about fear
is talk to you a little bit about fear
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今天我想跟大家谈谈恐惧
以及恐惧的代价
00:16
and the cost of fear
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还有我们（美国）从中兴起的
那个恐怖的年代。
那个恐怖的年代。
00:18
and the age of fear
from which we are now emerging.
from which we are now emerging.
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00:22
I would like you to feel comfortable
with my doing that
with my doing that
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在我演讲的过程中，
我并不想让大家感觉不适
我并不想让大家感觉不适
00:26
by letting you know that I know something
about fear and anxiety.
about fear and anxiety.
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因此我想告诉大家，关于恐惧和焦虑
我是有发言权的。
我是有发言权的。
因为我是一个来自新泽西州的犹太人。
00:31
I'm a Jewish guy from New Jersey.
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（笑声）
00:33
(Laughter)
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00:35
I could worry before I could walk.
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我在会走路之前就已经学会了担忧。
00:37
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
00:39
Please, applaud that.
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请给点掌声吧。
（掌声）
00:41
(Applause)
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00:44
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
00:46
But I also grew up in a time
where there was something to fear.
where there was something to fear.
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我成长于一个充满恐怖的时代。
00:52
We were brought out in the hall
when I was a little kid
when I was a little kid
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在我小的时候，我曾被带到一个大厅
00:56
and taught how to put
our coats over our heads
our coats over our heads
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有人教我如何将外套套在头上
以保护我们躲过全球核战争的打击。
00:59
to protect us from global
thermonuclear war.
thermonuclear war.
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当然，尽管我当时只有七岁，
也知道那并没什么用。
也知道那并没什么用。
01:03
Now even my seven-year-old brain
knew that wasn't going to work.
knew that wasn't going to work.
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01:09
But I also knew
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但我也知道
01:10
that global thermonuclear war
was something to be concerned with.
was something to be concerned with.
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全球核战争并不是无稽之谈。
尽管在核战阴云下，我们生活了
01:15
And yet, despite the fact
that we lived for 50 years
that we lived for 50 years
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01:19
with the threat of such a war,
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长达50年，
01:21
the response of our government
and of our society
and of our society
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但我们的政府和社会为了应对核战威胁
01:25
was to do wonderful things.
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却做了不少好事。
01:28
We created the space program
in response to that.
in response to that.
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我们发展了太空技术。
修建了高速公路。
01:31
We built our highway system
in response to that.
in response to that.
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01:34
We created the Internet
in response to that.
in response to that.
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发明了互联网。
01:37
So sometimes fear can produce
a constructive response.
a constructive response.
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因此，恐惧有时候能激发正能量。
但有时候也会带来负面影响。
01:42
But sometimes it can produce
an un-constructive response.
an un-constructive response.
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01:47
On September 11, 2001,
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2001年9月11日，
01:49
19 guys took over four airplanes
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19个人劫持了4架飞机
01:54
and flew them into a couple of buildings.
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撞击了几幢大楼。
01:57
They exacted a horrible toll.
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他们付出了可怕的代价。
02:00
It is not for us to minimize
what that toll was.
what that toll was.
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我们并不是要把这代价降到最低。
02:04
But the response that we had
was clearly disproportionate --
was clearly disproportionate --
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但我们做出的回应显然是过激了——
02:11
disproportionate to the point
of verging on the unhinged.
of verging on the unhinged.
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过激到近乎疯狂的地步。
我们重组了美国的国家安全机构，
02:16
We rearranged the national security
apparatus of the United States
apparatus of the United States
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其他许多政府也同样做了，
02:20
and of many governments
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目的是针对恐怖袭击发生时，
可能存在的威胁
可能存在的威胁
02:22
to address a threat that,
at the time that those attacks took place,
at the time that those attacks took place,
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02:27
was quite limited.
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而实际上这种威胁很有限。
事实上，根据情报部门的数据，
02:28
In fact, according to our
intelligence services,
intelligence services,
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在2001年9月11日，
02:32
on September 11, 2001,
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“基地组织”的核心成员有100人。
02:35
there were 100 members of core Al-Qaeda.
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02:39
There were just a few thousand terrorists.
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恐怖分子也才数千人。
02:42
They posed an existential threat
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他们对任何人的威胁，
远未到生死存亡
远未到生死存亡
的程度。
02:45
to no one.
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02:47
But we rearranged our entire
national security apparatus
national security apparatus
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但我们却重组了我们整个国家安全机构，
是二战以来规模最大、程度最深的一次。
02:52
in the most sweeping way
since the end of the Second World War.
since the end of the Second World War.
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02:56
We launched two wars.
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我们发动了两场战争。
花费了数万亿美元。
02:58
We spent trillions of dollars.
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丢弃了我们的价值观。
03:00
We suspended our values.
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违反了国际法。
03:02
We violated international law.
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我们滥用私刑。
03:04
We embraced torture.
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我们坚信
03:06
We embraced the idea
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如果这19个人能犯下如此罪行，
那么任何人都可能。
那么任何人都可能。
03:07
that if these 19 guys could do this,
anybody could do it.
anybody could do it.
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03:11
And therefore,
for the first time in history,
for the first time in history,
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因此，史无前例的，
我们将任何人都视作威胁。
03:14
we were seeing everybody as a threat.
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结果怎么样呢？
03:17
And what was the result of that?
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我们监控电子邮件和电话
03:19
Surveillance programs that listened in
on the emails and phone calls
on the emails and phone calls
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针对所有国家，
03:23
of entire countries --
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针对数以亿计的人，
03:25
hundreds of millions of people --
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无论这些国家是不是我们的盟友，
03:27
setting aside whether
those countries were our allies,
those countries were our allies,
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也无论这么做是不是符合我们的利益。
03:30
setting aside what our interests were.
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03:34
I would argue that 15 years later,
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我认为，15年过去了，
恐怖分子反倒越来越多，
03:38
since today there are more terrorists,
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恐怖袭击越来越多，
造成的伤亡越来越大，
造成的伤亡越来越大，
03:40
more terrorist attacks,
more terrorist casualties --
more terrorist casualties --
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——这是美国国务院统计的结果——
03:44
this by the count
of the U.S. State Department --
of the U.S. State Department --
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恐怖袭击的发源地区
03:47
since today the region
from which those attacks emanate
from which those attacks emanate
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处于有史以来最不稳定的时期，
03:50
is more unstable
than at any time in its history,
than at any time in its history,
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即便从大洪水时代开始算起，
03:54
since the Flood, perhaps,
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我们此次的应对并不成功。
03:57
we have not succeeded in our response.
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04:02
Now you have to ask,
where did we go wrong?
where did we go wrong?
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你肯定会问，那我们错在哪里？
我们做错了什么？
具体犯了哪些错误？
具体犯了哪些错误？
04:04
What did we do?
What was the mistake that was made?
What was the mistake that was made?
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也许你会说，你看，
华盛顿正在失去话语权。
华盛顿正在失去话语权。
04:06
And you might say, well look,
Washington is a dysfunctional place.
Washington is a dysfunctional place.
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充斥着政治斗争。
04:10
There are political food fights.
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我们的竞选辩论成为了笼中摔跤赛。
04:12
We've turned our discourse
into a cage match.
into a cage match.
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的确如此。
04:16
And that's true.
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04:18
But there are bigger problems,
believe it or not, than that dysfunction,
believe it or not, than that dysfunction,
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无论你信不信，
还有比华盛顿失权更严重的问题，
还有比华盛顿失权更严重的问题，
尽管我坚信，
04:21
even though I would argue
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04:23
that dysfunction that makes it impossible
to get anything done
to get anything done
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这种失权会导致我们
这个世界上最富裕最强大的国家
这个世界上最富裕最强大的国家
无法做成任何事情，
04:28
in the richest and most powerful
country in the world
country in the world
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而这种危害比“伊拉克和沙姆伊斯兰国”
这种组织造成的危害要大得多，
这种组织造成的危害要大得多，
04:31
is far more dangerous than anything
that a group like ISIS could do,
that a group like ISIS could do,
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因为它会让我们偏离轨道，
阻止我们进步。
阻止我们进步。
04:37
because it stops us in our tracks
and it keeps us from progress.
and it keeps us from progress.
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04:42
But there are other problems.
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然而还有其他问题存在。
04:44
And the other problems
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这些问题
04:45
came from the fact that in Washington
and in many capitals right now,
and in many capitals right now,
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来源于一个事实，无论是在华盛顿，
还是其他国家的首都，
还是其他国家的首都，
我们都遭遇到了创新危机。
04:48
we're in a creativity crisis.
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04:51
In Washington, in think tanks,
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华盛顿，智库，
本该是大家提出新想法的地方，
04:53
where people are supposed to be
thinking of new ideas,
thinking of new ideas,
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然而没有人这么做，
04:56
you don't get bold new ideas,
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因为一旦你提出个什么新想法，
04:59
because if you offer up a bold new idea,
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不但会在推特上被骂得体无完肤，
05:01
not only are you attacked on Twitter,
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甚至都没法再在政府部门混下去了。
05:03
but you will not get confirmed
in a government job.
in a government job.
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因为我们受竞选政治毒害颇深，
05:07
Because we are reactive to the heightened
venom of the political debate,
venom of the political debate,
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政府部门里派别对立严重，
05:12
you get governments that have
an us-versus-them mentality,
an us-versus-them mentality,
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而做决定的是一小群人。
05:15
tiny groups of people making decisions.
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当你和一小撮人一起做决策的时候，
05:17
When you sit in a room with a small group
of people making decisions,
of people making decisions,
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会发生什么？
05:21
what do you get?
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你会陷入“团体迷思”的怪圈。
05:22
You get groupthink.
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（这个小团体中）每个人的世界观都一样，
05:24
Everybody has the same worldview,
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05:25
and any view from outside of the group
is seen as a threat.
is seen as a threat.
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任何来自这个小圈子之外的
观点都会被视为威胁。
观点都会被视为威胁。
05:29
That's a danger.
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这很危险。
05:31
You also have processes
that become reactive to news cycles.
that become reactive to news cycles.
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你也会有一个对新的想法和环境反应的一个过程。
因此美国政府中那些需要
做预测，需要向前看的部门，
做预测，需要向前看的部门，
05:35
And so the parts of the U.S. government
that do foresight, that look forward,
that do foresight, that look forward,
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战略部门——
05:39
that do strategy --
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包括其他国家政府中
有这项职能的部门 — 不能如此行事，
有这项职能的部门 — 不能如此行事，
05:41
the parts in other governments
that do this -- can't do it,
that do this -- can't do it,
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因为一旦他们开始进入新循环。
05:43
because they're reacting
to the news cycle.
to the news cycle.
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05:46
And so we're not looking ahead.
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我们也就无法向前看了。
在“911”事件时，我们经历了危机，
因为我们思考的方向有误。
因为我们思考的方向有误。
05:48
On 9/11, we had a crisis
because we were looking the wrong way.
because we were looking the wrong way.
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05:52
Today we have a crisis because,
because of 9/11,
because of 9/11,
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而今天我们经历的危机，
正是因为在“911”时，
正是因为在“911”时，
我们的思考方向不对，
05:55
we are still looking
in the wrong direction,
in the wrong direction,
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我们之所以这样认为
是因为我们看到了新的转型趋势
是因为我们看到了新的转型趋势
05:58
and we know because we see
transformational trends on the horizon
transformational trends on the horizon
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而这比我在“911”时看到的更为重要；
06:04
that are far more important
than what we saw on 9/11;
than what we saw on 9/11;
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06:09
far more important than the threat
posed by these terrorists;
posed by these terrorists;
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比恐怖分子制造的威胁更为重要；
甚至比世界上一些地区的不稳定更为重要，
06:13
far more important even
than the instability that we've got
than the instability that we've got
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尽管这些地区动荡不安，饱受摧残。
06:16
in some areas of the world
that are racked by instability today.
that are racked by instability today.
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06:21
In fact, the things that we are seeing
in those parts of the world
in those parts of the world
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事实上，发生在这些地区的事件
只是表象。
06:25
may be symptoms.
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06:28
They may be a reaction to bigger trends.
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背后可能还隐藏着更大的问题。
如果我们只是治标不治本，
06:32
And if we are treating the symptom
and ignoring the bigger trend,
and ignoring the bigger trend,
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06:37
then we've got far bigger
problems to deal with.
problems to deal with.
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我们麻烦只会越来越大。
06:41
And so what are those trends?
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那问题的根源究竟是什么？
06:43
Well, to a group like you,
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当然，对于你们而言，
问题显而易见。
06:45
the trends are apparent.
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我们生活在一个全新的时代，
人类社会基础发生了
人类社会基础发生了
06:48
We are living at a moment
in which the very fabric of human society
in which the very fabric of human society
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翻天覆地的变化。
06:53
is being rewoven.
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06:57
If you saw the cover of The Economist
a couple of days ago --
a couple of days ago --
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如果你还记得几天前出版的
《经济学人》的封面——
《经济学人》的封面——
说，到2020年，地球上80%的人
07:00
it said that 80 percent
of the people on the planet,
of the people on the planet,
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将拥有智能手机。
07:03
by the year 2020, would have a smartphone.
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07:07
They would have a small computer
connected to the Internet in their pocket.
connected to the Internet in their pocket.
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人人口袋里将有一部
连接互联网的小型计算机。
连接互联网的小型计算机。
07:11
In most of Africa, the cell phone
penetration rate is 80 percent.
penetration rate is 80 percent.
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在非洲大部分地区，
手机的普及率为80%。
手机的普及率为80%。
07:17
We passed the point last October
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去年10月，我们跨过了一个临界点，
世界上的手机，SIM卡的数量
07:20
when there were more
mobile cellular devices, SIM cards,
mobile cellular devices, SIM cards,
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07:24
out in the world than there were people.
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超过了人类的数量。
07:27
We are within years
of a profound moment in our history,
of a profound moment in our history,
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我们正在经历人类历史中
非常重要的一段时期，
非常重要的一段时期，
那就是地球上的每一个人类，
07:33
when effectively every single
human being on the planet
human being on the planet
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07:38
is going to be part of a man-made
system for the first time,
system for the first time,
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破天荒第一次，能够成为
一个人造系统的一部分，
一个人造系统的一部分，
有能力能联系上任何一个人——
07:43
able to touch anyone else --
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无论这种联系是好是坏。
07:45
touch them for good, touch them for ill.
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07:47
And the changes associated with that
are changing the very nature
are changing the very nature
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随之而来的变化改变了
统治阶级和老百姓生活的方方面面。
07:53
of every aspect of governance
and life on the planet
and life on the planet
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领导者们不得不考虑，
07:57
in ways that our leaders
ought to be thinking about,
ought to be thinking about,
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这会不会成为一种直接威胁。
08:00
when they're thinking about
these immediate threats.
these immediate threats.
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08:03
On the security side,
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1766
从安全角度来看，
我们躲过了冷战，
因为核战争成本太高，
因为核战争成本太高，
08:05
we've come out of a Cold War in which
it was too costly to fight a nuclear war,
it was too costly to fight a nuclear war,
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5504
但我们没法躲过
08:11
and so we didn't,
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我称之为“次冷战”，网络战，
08:12
to a period that I call
Cool War, cyber war,
Cool War, cyber war,
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发动它们的成本很低，
我们肯定会一直这么干下去。
我们肯定会一直这么干下去。
08:16
where the costs of conflict are actually
so low, that we may never stop.
so low, that we may never stop.
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08:22
We may enter a period of constant warfare,
147
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2726
我们可能会进入一段连续作战的时期，
我们之所以这么肯定，
因为我们已经开始好多年了。
因为我们已经开始好多年了。
08:24
and we know this because
we've been in it for several years.
we've been in it for several years.
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然而，我们缺乏基本的理论引导，
08:29
And yet, we don't have the basic doctrines
to guide us in this regard.
to guide us in this regard.
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08:35
We don't have the basic ideas formulated.
150
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2091
没有成型的战法可以参考。
如果我们遭受网络攻击，
08:37
If someone attacks us with a cyber attack,
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我们有能力进行反击吗？
08:39
do have the ability to respond
with a kinetic attack?
with a kinetic attack?
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08:43
We don't know.
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1207
谁也不知道。
08:45
If somebody launches a cyber attack,
how do we deter them?
how do we deter them?
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如果有人发起网络攻击，
我们如何阻止？
我们如何阻止？
当中国发起一系列网络攻击时，
08:49
When China launched
a series of cyber attacks,
a series of cyber attacks,
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2187
美国政府是怎么应对的？
08:51
what did the U.S. government do?
156
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1527
08:53
It said, we're going to indict
a few of these Chinese guys,
a few of these Chinese guys,
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3985
据说，我们会起诉这几个中国人，
而这些人永远不会来美国。
08:57
who are never coming to America.
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1742
08:59
They're never going to be anywhere near
a law enforcement officer
a law enforcement officer
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他们才不会跑到美国警察局
来束手就擒呢。
09:03
who's going to take them into custody.
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2005
09:06
It's a gesture -- it's not a deterrent.
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（起诉）只是一种形式，并不是威慑。
09:09
Special forces operators
out there in the field today
out there in the field today
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3798
今天在外执勤的特种部队队员
发现一小群叛乱分子
09:13
discover that small groups
of insurgents with cell phones
of insurgents with cell phones
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09:18
have access to satellite imagery
that once only superpowers had.
that once only superpowers had.
164
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用手机获取了卫星图像，
这些图像曾经只掌握在超级大国手中。
这些图像曾经只掌握在超级大国手中。
实际上，只要你手机在手，
09:23
In fact, if you've got a cell phone,
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你就拥有了超级大国都不曾拥有的力量，
09:25
you've got access to power
that a superpower didn't have,
that a superpower didn't have,
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3316
掌握那些在十年前还属于高度机密的信息。
09:29
and would have highly
classified 10 years ago.
classified 10 years ago.
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2155
我的手机有一个程序，
09:31
In my cell phone,
I have an app that tells me
I have an app that tells me
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能显示地球上每一架飞机的位置、航向、速度
09:34
where every plane in the world is,
and its altitude, and its speed,
and its altitude, and its speed,
169
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4540
飞机的型号，
09:38
and what kind of aircraft it is,
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1822
目的地是哪里，将在哪里降落。
09:40
and where it's going
and where it's landing.
and where it's landing.
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他们（恐怖分子）只要安装了程序，
就能知道自己的对手下一步的行动。
就能知道自己的对手下一步的行动。
09:44
They have apps that allow them to know
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4549
09:49
what their adversary is about to do.
173
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09:51
They're using these tools in new ways.
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2376
他们（恐怖分子）找到了
使用这些工具的新方法。
使用这些工具的新方法。
09:53
When a cafe in Sydney
was taken over by a terrorist,
was taken over by a terrorist,
175
581645
4114
一名恐怖分子占领了悉尼的一家咖啡馆，
09:57
he went in with a rifle...
176
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2293
带着一支步枪
和一个iPad。
10:00
and an iPad.
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1243
10:01
And the weapon was the iPad.
178
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2561
而iPad才是武器。
10:04
Because he captured people,
he terrorized them,
he terrorized them,
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592999
3299
因为他挟持人质，恐吓他们，
将iPad对准他们，
10:08
he pointed the iPad at them,
180
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2705
录下视频并传到网上，
10:11
and then he took the video
and he put it on the Internet,
and he put it on the Internet,
181
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2672
从而攻陷了全世界的媒体。
10:13
and he took over the world's media.
182
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2023
10:17
But it doesn't just affect
the security side.
the security side.
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然而这不仅仅对安全产生了影响。
10:22
The relations between great powers --
184
610132
1829
（也影响了）大国间的关系——
我们本以为两极世界已经结束。
10:23
we thought we were past the bipolar era.
185
611985
2365
10:27
We thought we were in a unipolar world,
186
615259
1874
我们本以为我们进入了单极世界，
所有大问题都已经解决了。
10:29
where all the big issues were resolved.
187
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1894
还记得吗？那段历史已经结束。
10:31
Remember? It was the end of history.
188
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1717
10:34
But we're not.
189
622129
1296
然而并非如此。
我们现在对于网络的基本假设－－
10:35
We're now seeing that our
basic assumptions about the Internet --
basic assumptions about the Internet --
190
623449
4388
它可以和整个社会和我们连结在一起－－
10:39
that it was going to connect us,
weave society together --
weave society together --
191
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4061
已经不见的是对的了。
10:43
are not necessarily true.
192
631946
1656
10:46
In countries like China,
you have the Great Firewall of China.
you have the Great Firewall of China.
193
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像中国这种国家，他们拥有《长城防火墙》。
你会看到一些国家，说我们不允许各种网络
在国界里肆意妄为。
在国界里肆意妄为。
10:49
You've got countries saying no,
if the Internet happens within our borders
if the Internet happens within our borders
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3520
我们要在国界内对其加以控制。
10:52
we control it within our borders.
195
640847
1575
10:54
We control the content.
We are going to control our security.
We are going to control our security.
196
642446
2860
我们要控制它的内容。
我们要保证我们的安全。
我们要保证我们的安全。
10:57
We are going to manage that Internet.
197
645330
1766
我们要管好网络。
我们要决定我们自己扮演的是什么角色。
10:59
We are going to say what can be on it.
198
647120
1813
我们要设定一些不同的规则。
11:00
We're going to set
a different set of rules.
a different set of rules.
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648957
2051
现在你可能在想，嗯，那只是中国。
11:03
Now you might think,
well, that's just China.
well, that's just China.
200
651032
2097
其实不止是中国。
11:05
But it's not just China.
201
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1714
11:07
It's China, India, Russia.
202
655651
2729
中国，印度，俄罗斯，
沙特阿拉伯，新加坡，巴西。
11:10
It's Saudi Arabia,
it's Singapore, it's Brazil.
it's Singapore, it's Brazil.
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3100
在国家安全局的丑闻后，
俄罗斯人，中国人，印度人，巴西人，
俄罗斯人，中国人，印度人，巴西人，
11:13
After the NSA scandal, the Russians,
the Chinese, the Indians, the Brazilians,
the Chinese, the Indians, the Brazilians,
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4514
他们都说要创造自己的网络构架，
11:18
they said, let's create
a new Internet backbone,
a new Internet backbone,
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3055
因为不能再信任别人的系统。
11:21
because we can't be dependent
on this other one.
on this other one.
206
669449
2482
所以一瞬间，你还有些什么？
11:23
And so all of a sudden, what do you have?
207
671955
1969
你有一个新的强权对立的世界，
11:26
You have a new bipolar world
208
674400
2499
在这种网络国际主义的环境下，
11:28
in which cyber-internationalism,
209
676923
2191
我们的信念，
11:31
our belief,
210
679138
1151
11:32
is challenged by cyber-nationalism,
211
680313
2837
受到网络民族主义的挑战。
另一种信念。
11:35
another belief.
212
683174
1265
11:37
We are seeing these changes
everywhere we look.
everywhere we look.
213
685593
3171
我们到处都可以看到这些改变。
11:41
We are seeing the advent of mobile money.
214
689629
1978
我们看到可流动货币出现
在你想不到的地方。
11:43
It's happening in the places
you wouldn't expect.
you wouldn't expect.
215
691631
2297
它发生在肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚。
11:45
It's happening in Kenya and Tanzania,
216
693952
2377
11:48
where millions of people who haven't
had access to financial services
had access to financial services
217
696353
3269
那里有上百万人
没有机会使用金融服务，
没有机会使用金融服务，
现在却可以在他们手机上享受这些服务。
11:51
now conduct all those
services on their phones.
services on their phones.
218
699646
2495
11:54
There are 2.5 million people
who don't have financial service access
who don't have financial service access
219
702702
4500
所以2500万无法使用金融服务的人，
很快都能用上了。
11:59
that are going to get it soon.
220
707226
2016
12:01
A billion of them are going
to have the ability to access it
to have the ability to access it
221
709740
2813
有十亿人很快的将得以透过手机
获得这个服务。
12:04
on their cell phone soon.
222
712577
1195
这不只让他们可以开户存款，
12:05
It's not just going to give them
the ability to bank.
the ability to bank.
223
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2853
12:08
It's going to change
what monetary policy is.
what monetary policy is.
224
716957
2877
已将改变货币政策，
和货币本身。
12:11
It's going to change what money is.
225
719858
2636
12:15
Education is changing in the same way.
226
723262
2171
教育也在以同样的方式改变着。
12:18
Healthcare is changing in the same way.
227
726430
2461
医疗也是。
政府服务也在改变着。
12:20
How government services are delivered
is changing in the same way.
is changing in the same way.
228
728915
3494
12:25
And yet, in Washington, we are debating
229
733607
4262
但是在华盛顿，我们还在争论
要称呼控制叙利亚和伊拉克的恐怖组织
12:29
whether to call the terrorist group
that has taken over Syria and Iraq
that has taken over Syria and Iraq
230
737893
5465
ISIS还是ISIL还是伊斯兰国。
12:35
ISIS or ISIL or Islamic State.
231
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4160
12:40
We are trying to determine
232
748540
3111
我们还在试着决定
在和伊朗的核能交易谈判中
12:43
how much we want to give
in a negotiation with the Iranians
in a negotiation with the Iranians
233
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5289
针对这项五十年前的技术到底要付多少。
12:48
on a nuclear deal which deals
with the technologies of 50 years ago,
with the technologies of 50 years ago,
234
756988
4799
就在我们知道伊朗人事实上
正忙着和我们进行网络战的时候。
正忙着和我们进行网络战的时候。
12:53
when in fact, we know that the Iranians
right now are engaged in cyber war with us
right now are engaged in cyber war with us
235
761811
5358
我们忽略了这个，
一部分原因是商界不希望
一部分原因是商界不希望
12:59
and we're ignoring it, partially
because businesses are not willing
because businesses are not willing
236
767193
6034
去谈论它们所受到的影响。
13:05
to talk about the attacks
that are being waged on them.
that are being waged on them.
237
773251
3118
13:09
And that gets us to another breakdown
238
777399
2809
而这为我们带来了另一次分离崩解，
这是决定性的，
13:12
that's crucial,
239
780232
1224
对我们这样的群体而言，
没有比这个更重要的事情，
没有比这个更重要的事情，
13:13
and another breakdown that couldn't be
more important to a group like this,
more important to a group like this,
240
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3711
因为美国的发展以及真正的国家安全
13:17
because the growth of America
and real American national security
and real American national security
241
785215
3652
以及能让我们在冷战中得以进步的东西，
13:20
and all of the things that drove progress
even during the Cold War,
even during the Cold War,
242
788891
4441
就是在科学，科技和政治之间，
政府和民间的合作，
政府和民间的合作，
13:25
was a public-private partnership
between science, technology and government
between science, technology and government
243
793356
4751
是由坐在实验室的
13:30
that began when Thomas Jefferson
sat alone in his laboratory
sat alone in his laboratory
244
798131
3508
独自发明着东西的托马斯杰斐逊开始。
13:33
inventing new things.
245
801663
1843
13:36
But it was the canals
and railroads and telegraph;
and railroads and telegraph;
246
804528
3810
是运河，铁路，电报；
是雷达和网络。
13:40
it was radar and the Internet.
247
808362
2316
是果珍－－那种早餐饮料－－
13:43
It was Tang, the breakfast drink --
248
811129
2284
可能不是最重要的项目。
13:45
probably not the most important
of those developments.
of those developments.
249
813437
2877
13:48
But what you had was
a partnership and a dialogue,
a partnership and a dialogue,
250
816795
2879
但我们曾有的合作和对话，
现在已经瓦解。
13:51
and the dialogue has broken down.
251
819698
2265
因为在华盛顿，
13:53
It's broken down because in Washington,
252
821987
2379
人们认为政府介入越少越好，
13:56
less government is considered more.
253
824390
1766
因为，不管你信不信
13:58
It's broken down because there is,
believe it or not,
believe it or not,
254
826180
2479
在华盛顿，竟然还有人和科学宣战－－
14:00
in Washington, a war on science --
255
828683
1840
尽管事实上在所有人类历史中，
14:02
despite the fact that
in all of human history,
in all of human history,
256
830547
3039
若有任何人向科学宣战，
14:05
every time anyone has waged
a war on science,
a war on science,
257
833610
2960
科学都会获得最后的胜利。
14:08
science has won.
258
836594
1601
14:11
(Applause)
259
839463
4927
（掌声）
14:16
But we have a government
that doesn't want to listen,
that doesn't want to listen,
260
844712
4196
但是我们有个不愿意倾听的政府，
不愿意让最高层的人，
14:20
that doesn't have people
at the highest levels
at the highest levels
261
848932
2159
去了解这些。
14:23
that understand this.
262
851115
1154
14:24
In the nuclear age,
263
852293
1151
在核武器时代，
那些在国家安全部门任职的人们，
14:25
when there were people
in senior national security jobs,
in senior national security jobs,
264
853468
3167
被期待去谈论导弹负荷。
14:28
they were expected to speak throw-weight.
265
856659
3028
大家期待他们能够用听不懂的行话。
14:32
They were expected to know
the lingo, the vocabulary.
the lingo, the vocabulary.
266
860005
3018
现在如果你到美国政府最高层
14:35
If you went to the highest level
of the U.S. government now
of the U.S. government now
267
863047
2799
和他们说“跟我谈谈网络，
跟我谈谈神经学
跟我谈谈神经学
14:37
and said, "Talk to me about cyber,
about neuroscience,
about neuroscience,
268
865870
2533
谈谈即将改变未来世界的事情。”
14:40
about the things that are going
to change the world of tomorrow,"
to change the world of tomorrow,"
269
868427
3140
你会得到一个白眼。
14:43
you'd get a blank stare.
270
871591
1151
我之所以知道这个，
因为我写这本书的时候，
因为我写这本书的时候，
14:44
I know, because when I wrote this book,
271
872766
1921
我曾和来自各类科学领域
的150名专家对谈，
的150名专家对谈，
14:46
I talked to 150 people,
many from the science and tech side,
many from the science and tech side,
272
874711
3040
他们都觉得自己被分配到儿童桌。
14:49
who felt like they were being
shunted off to the kids' table.
shunted off to the kids' table.
273
877775
3056
14:53
Meanwhile, on the tech side,
274
881389
2082
与此同时，在科技领域，
很多很棒的人在制作很棒的东西，
14:55
we have lots of wonderful people
creating wonderful things,
creating wonderful things,
275
883495
3805
14:59
but they started in garages
and they didn't need the government
and they didn't need the government
276
887324
2957
但是他们是从车库开始的－不需要政府，
15:02
and they don't want the government.
277
890305
1673
他们不想要政府。
很多人有一个政治思想，
15:04
Many of them have a political view
that's somewhere between
that's somewhere between
278
892002
2767
在自由派和无政府派之间：
15:06
libertarian and anarchic:
279
894793
1894
别打扰我。
15:08
leave me alone.
280
896711
1361
15:11
But the world's coming apart.
281
899305
1814
但是世界正在崩溃。
15:13
All of a sudden, there are going to be
massive regulatory changes
massive regulatory changes
282
901668
3389
突然之间，即将会有很大范围的管理改变
巨大的冲突、
15:17
and massive issues
associated with conflict
associated with conflict
283
905081
2918
巨大的安全与隐私隐患。
15:20
and massive issues associated
with security and privacy.
with security and privacy.
284
908023
4285
我们甚至还没提到下一个问题：
15:24
And we haven't even gotten
to the next set of issues,
to the next set of issues,
285
912332
2495
哲学问题。
15:26
which are philosophical issues.
286
914841
1974
15:29
If you can't vote,
if you can't have a job,
if you can't have a job,
287
917601
2822
如果你在没有网络的情况下
不能投票，工作，做金融，用医保，
不能投票，工作，做金融，用医保，
15:32
if you can't bank,
if you can't get health care,
if you can't get health care,
288
920447
2492
15:34
if you can't be educated
without Internet access,
without Internet access,
289
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接受教育，
那么网络连接
不应该被写进宪法的基本权利吗？
不应该被写进宪法的基本权利吗？
15:37
is Internet access a fundamental right
that should be written into constitutions?
that should be written into constitutions?
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如果网络是权力，
15:42
If Internet access is a fundamental right,
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那么对于1.2亿没有电用的人口来说，
15:45
is electricity access for the 1.2 billion
who don't have access to electricity
who don't have access to electricity
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电力供应是个基本权利吗？
15:49
a fundamental right?
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15:51
These are fundamental issues.
Where are the philosophers?
Where are the philosophers?
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这些都是基础问题。哲学家在哪里？
对话在哪里？
15:54
Where's the dialogue?
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15:57
And that brings me
to the reason that I'm here.
to the reason that I'm here.
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这些是我今天来的原因，
我住在华盛顿，可怜可怜我吧。
16:00
I live in Washington. Pity me.
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（笑）
16:03
(Laughter)
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在那里并没有对话发生。
16:04
The dialogue isn't happening there.
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16:07
These big issues
that will change the world,
that will change the world,
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这些会改变世界，
改变国家安全，经济，
16:10
change national security,
change economics,
change economics,
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创造机会，制造威胁的重大议题，
16:13
create hope, create threats,
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只有在你将懂科学，科技
16:15
can only be resolved
when you bring together
when you bring together
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的群体聚集在一起
恢复和政府的合作时，
恢复和政府的合作时，
16:18
groups of people who understand
science and technology
science and technology
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才能解决。
16:22
back together with government.
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互相需要。
16:23
Both sides need each other.
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唯有在我们重新建立联系，
16:26
And until we recreate that connection,
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做一些可以帮助美国
和其他国家成长的事情后，
和其他国家成长的事情后，
16:31
until we do what helped America grow
and helped other countries grow,
and helped other countries grow,
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我们才不会越来越脆弱。
16:36
then we are going to grow
ever more vulnerable.
ever more vulnerable.
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16:40
The risks associated with 9/11
will not be measured
will not be measured
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911所带来的风险
不会被以伤亡而衡量
16:44
in terms of lives lost by terror attacks
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16:47
or buildings destroyed
or trillions of dollars spent.
or trillions of dollars spent.
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或者被摧毁的大楼
或者几亿的资产损失。
或者几亿的资产损失。
而是被以让我们从重要事务上分心
所造成的代价而衡量。
所造成的代价而衡量。
16:52
They'll be measured in terms of the costs
of our distraction from critical issues
of our distraction from critical issues
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以及无法聚集起来
16:56
and our inability to get together
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科学家，科技学家和政府领导人－－
17:00
scientists, technologists,
government leaders,
government leaders,
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在这样的转变下，
类似于文艺复兴的开端的时刻，
类似于文艺复兴的开端的时刻，
17:04
at a moment of transformation
akin to the beginning of the Renaissance,
akin to the beginning of the Renaissance,
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类似于地球上许多
17:10
akin to the beginning
of the major transformational eras
of the major transformational eras
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重要事情的开端。
17:13
that have happened on Earth,
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17:16
and start coming up with,
if not the right answers,
if not the right answers,
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我们要有一些答案，
如果不是正确的答案，
如果不是正确的答案，
或者至少想到正确的问题。
17:20
then at least the right questions.
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我们还没有做到这点，
17:23
We are not there yet,
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但是像这样的讨论，这样的观众，
17:25
but discussions like this
and groups like you
and groups like you
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是这些问题得以被提及的地方。
17:28
are the places where those questions
can be formulated and posed.
can be formulated and posed.
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这就是为什么我相信像TED演讲的地方，
17:32
And that's why I believe
that groups like TED,
that groups like TED,
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地球上类似这样进行讨论的场合，
17:37
discussions like this around the planet,
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是外交政策，经济政策，
17:39
are the place where the future
of foreign policy, of economic policy,
of foreign policy, of economic policy,
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社会政策，哲学思想的未来。
17:44
of social policy, of philosophy,
will ultimately take place.
will ultimately take place.
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这就是为什么和你们交流这么愉快。
17:50
And that's why it's been
a pleasure speaking to you.
a pleasure speaking to you.
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非常，非常感谢。
17:52
Thank you very, very much.
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（掌声）
17:54
(Applause)
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Reviewed by Sabrina Song
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
David Rothkopf - Foreign policy strategistWith books and strategies, David Rothkopf helps people navigate the perils and opportunities of our contemporary geopolitical landscape.
Why you should listen
David Rothkopf draws on decades of foreign policy experience to clarify the events shaking today’s world -- and develops strategies for organizations to weather them and those looming ahead. Rothkopf is CEO of The Rothkopf Group, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former CEO and Editor of the FP Group (which publishes Foreign Policy Magazine and Foreign Policy.com).
Rothkopf's books (including most recently National Insecurity, which focuses on the treacherous post-9/11 national security climate) argue that the nature of power and those who wield it are fundamentally transforming. He is the author of the TED Book, The Great Questions of Tomorrow.
David Rothkopf | Speaker | TED.com