TED2015
David Rothkopf: How fear drives American politics
大衛‧羅斯科夫: 恐懼如何主導美國政治
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華府看起來似乎沒有新招？相較於謹慎建設未來，美國政策建立有時似乎巧秒地從恐懼中退縮或故意忽略。專欄作家大衛‧羅斯科夫列出了幾件美國領導階層未能對付的重大議題--從網路犯罪到撼動世界的新科技科技再到現代總體戰--並呼籲大家排除恐懼、提高眼界。
David Rothkopf - Foreign policy strategist
With books and strategies, David Rothkopf helps people navigate the perils and opportunities of our contemporary geopolitical landscape. Full bio
With books and strategies, David Rothkopf helps people navigate the perils and opportunities of our contemporary geopolitical landscape. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
What I'd like to do
is talk to you a little bit about fear
is talk to you a little bit about fear
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今天我要做的是
和各位稍微談談恐懼這件事，
和各位稍微談談恐懼這件事，
00:16
and the cost of fear
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以及恐懼的代價，
00:18
and the age of fear
from which we are now emerging.
from which we are now emerging.
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還有正在浮現的恐懼時代。
00:22
I would like you to feel comfortable
with my doing that
with my doing that
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如果我告訴你們我對恐懼
和焦慮有所瞭解的話。
和焦慮有所瞭解的話。
00:26
by letting you know that I know something
about fear and anxiety.
about fear and anxiety.
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希望這可以讓你們感到舒服些
00:31
I'm a Jewish guy from New Jersey.
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我是個來自紐澤西的猶太人。
00:33
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
00:35
I could worry before I could walk.
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在我學會走路之前就學會憂慮了。
00:37
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
00:39
Please, applaud that.
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請為此給點掌聲。
00:41
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
00:44
Thank you.
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謝謝。
00:46
But I also grew up in a time
where there was something to fear.
where there was something to fear.
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但是我的確在一個令人憂慮的時代長大。
00:52
We were brought out in the hall
when I was a little kid
when I was a little kid
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在我還是個小孩時，
我們就被帶到門廊，
我們就被帶到門廊，
00:56
and taught how to put
our coats over our heads
our coats over our heads
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大人教導我們如何把外套套在頭上，
00:59
to protect us from global
thermonuclear war.
thermonuclear war.
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以保護自己在全球熱核
戰爭中免受侵害。
戰爭中免受侵害。
01:03
Now even my seven-year-old brain
knew that wasn't going to work.
knew that wasn't going to work.
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現在想想，即使我七歲的腦袋，
都知道那沒用。
都知道那沒用。
01:09
But I also knew
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但我同時也知道，
01:10
that global thermonuclear war
was something to be concerned with.
was something to be concerned with.
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全球熱核戰爭確實是需要擔憂的事情。
01:15
And yet, despite the fact
that we lived for 50 years
that we lived for 50 years
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但是，儘管我們有50年的時間
01:19
with the threat of such a war,
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都活在這個戰爭的威脅裡，
01:21
the response of our government
and of our society
and of our society
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我們的政府和社會對此的回應
01:25
was to do wonderful things.
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卻是做出一些很棒的事。
01:28
We created the space program
in response to that.
in response to that.
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作為回應，我們建立了太空計畫
01:31
We built our highway system
in response to that.
in response to that.
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作為回應，作為回應，
我們我們建造了公路系統
我們我們建造了公路系統
01:34
We created the Internet
in response to that.
in response to that.
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網際網路作為回應，我們創造了網際網路
01:37
So sometimes fear can produce
a constructive response.
a constructive response.
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所以恐懼有時能促使
一些建設性的回應。
一些建設性的回應。
01:42
But sometimes it can produce
an un-constructive response.
an un-constructive response.
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但有時也會產生無用的的回應。
01:47
On September 11, 2001,
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2001年9月11日，
01:49
19 guys took over four airplanes
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19個人劫持了四架飛機，
01:54
and flew them into a couple of buildings.
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將他們開向幾棟大樓。
01:57
They exacted a horrible toll.
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他們帶來了恐怖的傷亡。
02:00
It is not for us to minimize
what that toll was.
what that toll was.
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這傷亡並非我們所能減少的。
02:04
But the response that we had
was clearly disproportionate --
was clearly disproportionate --
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但我們的回應卻很明顯地
與此不成比例 --
與此不成比例 --
02:11
disproportionate to the point
of verging on the unhinged.
of verging on the unhinged.
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不成比例到幾乎要精神分裂。
02:16
We rearranged the national security
apparatus of the United States
apparatus of the United States
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我們重整美國國家安全的機關
02:20
and of many governments
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和許多相關的政府單位
02:22
to address a threat that,
at the time that those attacks took place,
at the time that those attacks took place,
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來對付像當時這樣的恐怖攻擊，
02:27
was quite limited.
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這樣有限的威脅。
02:28
In fact, according to our
intelligence services,
intelligence services,
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事實上，根據我們的情報局，
02:32
on September 11, 2001,
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在2001年9月11日，
02:35
there were 100 members of core Al-Qaeda.
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蓋達組織的核心成員數是100人。
02:39
There were just a few thousand terrorists.
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恐怖分子的人數也只有幾千人。
02:42
They posed an existential threat
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而他們對誰有著持續存在的威脅?
02:45
to no one.
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沒有。
02:47
But we rearranged our entire
national security apparatus
national security apparatus
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但我們在二次世界大戰後，
就用最全面徹底的方式
就用最全面徹底的方式
02:52
in the most sweeping way
since the end of the Second World War.
since the end of the Second World War.
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重整我們整個國家安全機關。
02:56
We launched two wars.
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我們發動了兩個戰爭。
02:58
We spent trillions of dollars.
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我們花了好幾兆美金。
03:00
We suspended our values.
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我們擱置了自己的價值觀。
03:02
We violated international law.
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我們違反了國際法。
03:04
We embraced torture.
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我們信奉酷刑這套。
03:06
We embraced the idea
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我們接受這個想法：
03:07
that if these 19 guys could do this,
anybody could do it.
anybody could do it.
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如果有19個人做這種事，
全世界的人都有可能做這種事。
全世界的人都有可能做這種事。
03:11
And therefore,
for the first time in history,
for the first time in history,
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也因為這樣，歷史上頭一遭，
03:14
we were seeing everybody as a threat.
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我們把每個人都視為威脅。
03:17
And what was the result of that?
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這麼做的結果是什麼?
03:19
Surveillance programs that listened in
on the emails and phone calls
on the emails and phone calls
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監控程式不斷監聽電子郵件和電話，
03:23
of entire countries --
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針對全世界所有國家 --
03:25
hundreds of millions of people --
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好幾億人口 --
03:27
setting aside whether
those countries were our allies,
those countries were our allies,
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不顧那些國家是否是我們的同盟國，
03:30
setting aside what our interests were.
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不顧國家利益在哪裡。
03:34
I would argue that 15 years later,
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我認為在未來的15年，
03:38
since today there are more terrorists,
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從今天開始世上會有更多恐怖份子，
03:40
more terrorist attacks,
more terrorist casualties --
more terrorist casualties --
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更多恐怖攻擊行動、更多不幸傷亡
03:44
this by the count
of the U.S. State Department --
of the U.S. State Department --
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--來自美國國務院的統計--
03:47
since today the region
from which those attacks emanate
from which those attacks emanate
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今天之後恐怖攻擊發送的區域
03:50
is more unstable
than at any time in its history,
than at any time in its history,
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會比歷史上任何時刻更不規則，
03:54
since the Flood, perhaps,
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恐怕在這波恐怖浪潮之後，
03:57
we have not succeeded in our response.
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我們還沒有成功做出過回應。
04:02
Now you have to ask,
where did we go wrong?
where did we go wrong?
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現在你們得問，我們哪裡做錯了?
04:04
What did we do?
What was the mistake that was made?
What was the mistake that was made?
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我們做了什麼? 犯了什麼錯?
04:06
And you might say, well look,
Washington is a dysfunctional place.
Washington is a dysfunctional place.
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然後你可能會說，看吧，
華府就是個功能失調的地方。
華府就是個功能失調的地方。
04:10
There are political food fights.
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存在許多政治鬥爭。
04:12
We've turned our discourse
into a cage match.
into a cage match.
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我們把許多對談變成鐵籠格鬥。
04:16
And that's true.
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這是事實。
04:18
But there are bigger problems,
believe it or not, than that dysfunction,
believe it or not, than that dysfunction,
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但不管你信不信，
還有比這種功失調更大的問題，
還有比這種功失調更大的問題，
04:21
even though I would argue
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儘管我主張
04:23
that dysfunction that makes it impossible
to get anything done
to get anything done
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這種讓世上最富裕、最強盛國家
04:28
in the richest and most powerful
country in the world
country in the world
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無法完成任何事情的功能失調，
04:31
is far more dangerous than anything
that a group like ISIS could do,
that a group like ISIS could do,
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遠比任何像ISIS這樣的組織
所做的事更加危險，
所做的事更加危險，
04:37
because it stops us in our tracks
and it keeps us from progress.
and it keeps us from progress.
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因為這讓我們脫離軌道、無法進步。
04:42
But there are other problems.
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但還有其他問題。
04:44
And the other problems
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而這些問題
04:45
came from the fact that in Washington
and in many capitals right now,
and in many capitals right now,
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來自華府與許多重要城市，
04:48
we're in a creativity crisis.
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現在面臨的創意危機。
04:51
In Washington, in think tanks,
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在華府的智囊團裡，
04:53
where people are supposed to be
thinking of new ideas,
thinking of new ideas,
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原本人們應該不斷想出新主意，
04:56
you don't get bold new ideas,
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但現在你不會看到任何大膽的新主意，
04:59
because if you offer up a bold new idea,
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因為每當你提出大膽的新主意，
05:01
not only are you attacked on Twitter,
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不只會在推特上遭到抨擊，
05:03
but you will not get confirmed
in a government job.
in a government job.
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還可能無法繼續在政府體系工作。
05:07
Because we are reactive to the heightened
venom of the political debate,
venom of the political debate,
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因為我們需要顧慮政治鬥爭的遺毒，
05:12
you get governments that have
an us-versus-them mentality,
an us-versus-them mentality,
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我們的政府都有選邊站的心態，
05:15
tiny groups of people making decisions.
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都是小團體在進行決策。
05:17
When you sit in a room with a small group
of people making decisions,
of people making decisions,
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當你坐在一個房間裡，
少數一群人做決策，
少數一群人做決策，
05:21
what do you get?
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你會得到什麼?
05:22
You get groupthink.
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你得到集體思維。
05:24
Everybody has the same worldview,
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每個人有著一樣的世界觀，
05:25
and any view from outside of the group
is seen as a threat.
is seen as a threat.
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而任何群體外的人的觀點都被視為威脅。
05:29
That's a danger.
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這是很危險的。
05:31
You also have processes
that become reactive to news cycles.
that become reactive to news cycles.
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你也正在經歷被
新聞連播牽著走的過程。
新聞連播牽著走的過程。
05:35
And so the parts of the U.S. government
that do foresight, that look forward,
that do foresight, that look forward,
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所以當部分美國政府
在長遠規畫、在向前看、
在長遠規畫、在向前看、
05:39
that do strategy --
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在做策略時--
05:41
the parts in other governments
that do this -- can't do it,
that do this -- can't do it,
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其他政府都可以做的事情--
將無從施展，
將無從施展，
05:43
because they're reacting
to the news cycle.
to the news cycle.
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因為他們需要顧慮媒體言論。
05:46
And so we're not looking ahead.
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所以我們並沒有在向前看。
05:48
On 9/11, we had a crisis
because we were looking the wrong way.
because we were looking the wrong way.
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在911，我們的危機來自
過去沒看到正確方向。
過去沒看到正確方向。
05:52
Today we have a crisis because,
because of 9/11,
because of 9/11,
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今天我們的危機來自，
因為911的緣故，
因為911的緣故，
05:55
we are still looking
in the wrong direction,
in the wrong direction,
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我們還是沒看到正確的方向，
05:58
and we know because we see
transformational trends on the horizon
transformational trends on the horizon
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而且我們知道因為我們看見
即將來臨的變革趨勢
即將來臨的變革趨勢
06:04
that are far more important
than what we saw on 9/11;
than what we saw on 9/11;
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遠比我們在911中看到的更重要；
06:09
far more important than the threat
posed by these terrorists;
posed by these terrorists;
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遠比任何恐怖份子的威脅更重要；
06:13
far more important even
than the instability that we've got
than the instability that we've got
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甚至遠比任何動盪--
06:16
in some areas of the world
that are racked by instability today.
that are racked by instability today.
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正在世界上某些地方遭受的動盪重要。
06:21
In fact, the things that we are seeing
in those parts of the world
in those parts of the world
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事實上，這部分我們所見的世事
06:25
may be symptoms.
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可能只是一些症狀而已。
06:28
They may be a reaction to bigger trends.
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可能只是反映更龐大的
趨勢的一些症狀。
趨勢的一些症狀。
06:32
And if we are treating the symptom
and ignoring the bigger trend,
and ignoring the bigger trend,
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而如果我們只設法治癒這些症狀，
卻忽略更龐大的趨勢，
卻忽略更龐大的趨勢，
06:37
then we've got far bigger
problems to deal with.
problems to deal with.
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就會有遠比現在更大的問題要處理。
06:41
And so what are those trends?
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所以，那些趨勢是什麼?
06:43
Well, to a group like you,
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對於像你們這樣的群眾來說，
06:45
the trends are apparent.
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這些趨勢很明顯。
06:48
We are living at a moment
in which the very fabric of human society
in which the very fabric of human society
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我們活在一個人類社會的結構
06:53
is being rewoven.
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正在被重新編織的時刻
06:57
If you saw the cover of The Economist
a couple of days ago --
a couple of days ago --
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如果你有看到前幾天
《經濟學人》的封面，
《經濟學人》的封面，
07:00
it said that 80 percent
of the people on the planet,
of the people on the planet,
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上面說地球上將有高達80%的人口
07:03
by the year 2020, would have a smartphone.
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在2020年時擁有智慧型手機。
07:07
They would have a small computer
connected to the Internet in their pocket.
connected to the Internet in their pocket.
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將會有個連結網路的
小電腦在他們口袋裡
小電腦在他們口袋裡
07:11
In most of Africa, the cell phone
penetration rate is 80 percent.
penetration rate is 80 percent.
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在非洲大部分地區，
手機的滲透率是80%。
手機的滲透率是80%。
07:17
We passed the point last October
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去年10月開始，
07:20
when there were more
mobile cellular devices, SIM cards,
mobile cellular devices, SIM cards,
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世界上個人行動裝置、SIM卡的數量
07:24
out in the world than there were people.
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已經超過世界人口數了。
07:27
We are within years
of a profound moment in our history,
of a profound moment in our history,
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我們活在對歷史影響最深遠的時代裡，
07:33
when effectively every single
human being on the planet
human being on the planet
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在這個時代裡，世界上每一個人
07:38
is going to be part of a man-made
system for the first time,
system for the first time,
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實際上都是一個人造系統的一部份，
有史以來第一次。
有史以來第一次。
07:43
able to touch anyone else --
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我們可以接觸任何人 --
07:45
touch them for good, touch them for ill.
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為好事接觸他們，或為壞事接觸他們。
07:47
And the changes associated with that
are changing the very nature
are changing the very nature
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隨著這些改變而來的是它正在改變
地球上任何政府與任何生命的
每一個面相的本質，
每一個面相的本質，
07:53
of every aspect of governance
and life on the planet
and life on the planet
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07:57
in ways that our leaders
ought to be thinking about,
ought to be thinking about,
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這是我們的領導人在思考當前威脅時
08:00
when they're thinking about
these immediate threats.
these immediate threats.
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應該思考的事情。
08:03
On the security side,
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至於安全這方面，
08:05
we've come out of a Cold War in which
it was too costly to fight a nuclear war,
it was too costly to fight a nuclear war,
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我們已經從冷戰裡出來
-- 因為核戰代價太高，
-- 因為核戰代價太高，
08:11
and so we didn't,
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所以我們沒這麼做--
08:12
to a period that I call
Cool War, cyber war,
Cool War, cyber war,
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進入一個我稱為『涼戰』
的時期，也就是網路戰爭，
的時期，也就是網路戰爭，
08:16
where the costs of conflict are actually
so low, that we may never stop.
so low, that we may never stop.
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5051
因為衝突成本很低，
所以可能永遠不會停止。
所以可能永遠不會停止。
08:22
We may enter a period of constant warfare,
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我們可能進入了一個持續交戰的時期，
08:24
and we know this because
we've been in it for several years.
we've been in it for several years.
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我們知道這點因為我們曾有多年經驗。
08:29
And yet, we don't have the basic doctrines
to guide us in this regard.
to guide us in this regard.
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但這次並沒有任何教條可以指點我們。
08:35
We don't have the basic ideas formulated.
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2091
我們並沒有規劃出任何基本概念。
08:37
If someone attacks us with a cyber attack,
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如果有人對我們發動網路攻擊，
08:39
do have the ability to respond
with a kinetic attack?
with a kinetic attack?
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我們是否有能力做出有力的回應?
08:43
We don't know.
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我們不知道。
08:45
If somebody launches a cyber attack,
how do we deter them?
how do we deter them?
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如果有人發動網路攻擊，
我們如何嚇阻他們?
我們如何嚇阻他們?
08:49
When China launched
a series of cyber attacks,
a series of cyber attacks,
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當中國發動一連串網路攻擊時，
08:51
what did the U.S. government do?
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美國政府做了什麼?
08:53
It said, we're going to indict
a few of these Chinese guys,
a few of these Chinese guys,
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他們只說，我們要對
幾個中國人提出訴訟，
幾個中國人提出訴訟，
08:57
who are never coming to America.
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1742
而這些人根本沒來過美國。
08:59
They're never going to be anywhere near
a law enforcement officer
a law enforcement officer
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他們甚至永遠不會到任何
接近執法人員的地方，
接近執法人員的地方，
09:03
who's going to take them into custody.
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2005
接近那些有可能拘留他們的人。
09:06
It's a gesture -- it's not a deterrent.
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這只是作勢而已--毫無威攝作用。
09:09
Special forces operators
out there in the field today
out there in the field today
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今天前線的特種部隊人員
09:13
discover that small groups
of insurgents with cell phones
of insurgents with cell phones
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發現少部分的叛亂團體用手機
09:18
have access to satellite imagery
that once only superpowers had.
that once only superpowers had.
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就可以取得衛星影像，
這曾經是世界強權才拿得到的東西。
這曾經是世界強權才拿得到的東西。
09:23
In fact, if you've got a cell phone,
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事實上，只要你有手機，
09:25
you've got access to power
that a superpower didn't have,
that a superpower didn't have,
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就能取得過去世界強權
無法擁有的力量。
無法擁有的力量。
09:29
and would have highly
classified 10 years ago.
classified 10 years ago.
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獲得10年前還是高度機密的東西。
09:31
In my cell phone,
I have an app that tells me
I have an app that tells me
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在我的手機裡，有個程式可以告訴我
09:34
where every plane in the world is,
and its altitude, and its speed,
and its altitude, and its speed,
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4540
地球上任何一架飛機在哪裡，
還有它的高度、它的速度，
還有它的高度、它的速度，
09:38
and what kind of aircraft it is,
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還有它是哪種飛機，
09:40
and where it's going
and where it's landing.
and where it's landing.
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它的目的地是哪，將在哪裡降落。
09:44
They have apps that allow them to know
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4549
他們擁有手機程式讓他們可以得知
09:49
what their adversary is about to do.
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他們的對手即將要做什麼
09:51
They're using these tools in new ways.
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他們正在用新方法運用這些工具。
09:53
When a cafe in Sydney
was taken over by a terrorist,
was taken over by a terrorist,
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4114
當恐怖份子控制雪梨一家咖啡廳時，
09:57
he went in with a rifle...
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2293
他拿著一把來福槍...
10:00
and an iPad.
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1243
還有一台iPad。
10:01
And the weapon was the iPad.
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2561
他的武器就是那台iPad。
10:04
Because he captured people,
he terrorized them,
he terrorized them,
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3299
因為他幫裡面的人
拍攝照片、脅迫他們，
拍攝照片、脅迫他們，
10:08
he pointed the iPad at them,
180
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2705
他拿著iPad指向他們，
10:11
and then he took the video
and he put it on the Internet,
and he put it on the Internet,
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2672
然後錄影並放到網路上，
10:13
and he took over the world's media.
182
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2023
攻佔了全世界的媒體。
10:17
But it doesn't just affect
the security side.
the security side.
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但它不只在安全方面有所影響。
10:22
The relations between great powers --
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1829
世界強權之間的關係--
10:23
we thought we were past the bipolar era.
185
611985
2365
我們認為兩大強權對立
的時期已經結束。
的時期已經結束。
10:27
We thought we were in a unipolar world,
186
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1874
我們認為現在世上只有一個強權，
10:29
where all the big issues were resolved.
187
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1894
尤其在最大的麻煩都解決了之後。
10:31
Remember? It was the end of history.
188
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1717
記得嗎? 這是那段歷史的終點。
10:34
But we're not.
189
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1296
但我們還沒結束。
10:35
We're now seeing that our
basic assumptions about the Internet --
basic assumptions about the Internet --
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4388
我們現在對於網際網路
的基本假設 --
的基本假設 --
10:39
that it was going to connect us,
weave society together --
weave society together --
191
627861
4061
它可以連結我們，
將整個社會織在一起 --
將整個社會織在一起 --
10:43
are not necessarily true.
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631946
1656
已經不見得是對的了。
10:46
In countries like China,
you have the Great Firewall of China.
you have the Great Firewall of China.
193
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3196
像中國這樣的國家，
他們擁有「防火長城」。
他們擁有「防火長城」。
10:49
You've got countries saying no,
if the Internet happens within our borders
if the Internet happens within our borders
194
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你會看到一些國家，會說我們不允許
網際網路在國界內恣意流竄，
網際網路在國界內恣意流竄，
10:52
we control it within our borders.
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640847
1575
我們要在國界內對其加以控制。
10:54
We control the content.
We are going to control our security.
We are going to control our security.
196
642446
2860
我們要控制它的內容。
我們要控制我們的安全。
我們要控制我們的安全。
10:57
We are going to manage that Internet.
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1766
我們要管好網際網路。
10:59
We are going to say what can be on it.
198
647120
1813
我們要決定自己可以在裡面扮演什麼。
11:00
We're going to set
a different set of rules.
a different set of rules.
199
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2051
我們要設定一些不同的規則。
11:03
Now you might think,
well, that's just China.
well, that's just China.
200
651032
2097
現在你可能在想，嗯，那只是中國。
11:05
But it's not just China.
201
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1714
但其實不只中國。
11:07
It's China, India, Russia.
202
655651
2729
而是中國、印度、俄羅斯、
11:10
It's Saudi Arabia,
it's Singapore, it's Brazil.
it's Singapore, it's Brazil.
203
658708
3100
沙烏地阿拉伯、新加坡、巴西。
11:13
After the NSA scandal, the Russians,
the Chinese, the Indians, the Brazilians,
the Chinese, the Indians, the Brazilians,
204
661832
4514
在國家安全局的醜聞後，
蘇聯人、中國人、印度人、巴西人，
蘇聯人、中國人、印度人、巴西人，
11:18
they said, let's create
a new Internet backbone,
a new Internet backbone,
205
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3055
他們都說要創造自己的網路架構，
11:21
because we can't be dependent
on this other one.
on this other one.
206
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2482
因為不能再信賴別人的系統。
11:23
And so all of a sudden, what do you have?
207
671955
1969
所以一瞬之間，你還有什麼?
11:26
You have a new bipolar world
208
674400
2499
你得到一個新的強權對立的世界，
11:28
in which cyber-internationalism,
209
676923
2191
在此網路國際主義，
11:31
our belief,
210
679138
1151
我們的信念，
11:32
is challenged by cyber-nationalism,
211
680313
2837
受到網路民族主義的挑戰，
11:35
another belief.
212
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1265
另一種信念。
11:37
We are seeing these changes
everywhere we look.
everywhere we look.
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3171
我們到處都可以看到這些改變。
11:41
We are seeing the advent of mobile money.
214
689629
1978
我們看到行動貨幣正在來臨。
11:43
It's happening in the places
you wouldn't expect.
you wouldn't expect.
215
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2297
它發生在你沒想到的地方。
11:45
It's happening in Kenya and Tanzania,
216
693952
2377
它發生在肯亞和坦尚尼亞，
11:48
where millions of people who haven't
had access to financial services
had access to financial services
217
696353
3269
那裡有上百萬人
還沒機會使用金融服務，
還沒機會使用金融服務，
11:51
now conduct all those
services on their phones.
services on their phones.
218
699646
2495
現在卻可以在他們的手機上享用。
11:54
There are 2.5 million people
who don't have financial service access
who don't have financial service access
219
702702
4500
所以250萬無法獲得金融服務的人，
11:59
that are going to get it soon.
220
707226
2016
很快就要得到了。
12:01
A billion of them are going
to have the ability to access it
to have the ability to access it
221
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2813
有10億人很快地將得以透過手機
12:04
on their cell phone soon.
222
712577
1195
取得這項服務。
12:05
It's not just going to give them
the ability to bank.
the ability to bank.
223
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2853
這不只讓他們即將有能力開戶存款，
12:08
It's going to change
what monetary policy is.
what monetary policy is.
224
716957
2877
也即將改變貨幣政策，
12:11
It's going to change what money is.
225
719858
2636
即將改變貨幣本身。
12:15
Education is changing in the same way.
226
723262
2171
教育也在以相同的方式改變。
12:18
Healthcare is changing in the same way.
227
726430
2461
醫療也在以相同的方式改變。
12:20
How government services are delivered
is changing in the same way.
is changing in the same way.
228
728915
3494
政府服務如何履行
也在以相同的方式改變。
也在以相同的方式改變。
12:25
And yet, in Washington, we are debating
229
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4262
但是在華府，我們還在爭論
12:29
whether to call the terrorist group
that has taken over Syria and Iraq
that has taken over Syria and Iraq
230
737893
5465
要叫那個已經控制敘利亞
和伊拉克的恐怖組織
和伊拉克的恐怖組織
12:35
ISIS or ISIL or Islamic State.
231
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4160
ISIS還是ISIL還是伊斯蘭國。
12:40
We are trying to determine
232
748540
3111
我們還在試著決定
12:43
how much we want to give
in a negotiation with the Iranians
in a negotiation with the Iranians
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5289
要在和伊朗人做核能交易的談判中
12:48
on a nuclear deal which deals
with the technologies of 50 years ago,
with the technologies of 50 years ago,
234
756988
4799
退讓多少，針對這種50年前的科技，
12:53
when in fact, we know that the Iranians
right now are engaged in cyber war with us
right now are engaged in cyber war with us
235
761811
5358
就在我們知道伊朗人事實上
正忙著和我們進行網路戰爭的時候。
正忙著和我們進行網路戰爭的時候。
12:59
and we're ignoring it, partially
because businesses are not willing
because businesses are not willing
236
767193
6034
而我們忽略這點，
部分因為商業界不希望
部分因為商業界不希望
13:05
to talk about the attacks
that are being waged on them.
that are being waged on them.
237
773251
3118
去談論在他們身上的一些攻擊。
13:09
And that gets us to another breakdown
238
777399
2809
而這為我們帶來了另一次崩解，
13:12
that's crucial,
239
780232
1224
這是決定性的，
13:13
and another breakdown that couldn't be
more important to a group like this,
more important to a group like this,
240
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3711
對我們這樣的群體而言，
沒有任何比這個崩解更重要的事情，
沒有任何比這個崩解更重要的事情，
13:17
because the growth of America
and real American national security
and real American national security
241
785215
3652
因為美國的發展以及真正的國家安全
13:20
and all of the things that drove progress
even during the Cold War,
even during the Cold War,
242
788891
4441
還有所有讓我們即使在冷戰中
都能繼續進步的東西，
都能繼續進步的東西，
13:25
was a public-private partnership
between science, technology and government
between science, technology and government
243
793356
4751
就是在科學、科技和政治之間，
政府和民間的合作，
政府和民間的合作，
13:30
that began when Thomas Jefferson
sat alone in his laboratory
sat alone in his laboratory
244
798131
3508
始於傑佛遜總統獨自坐在他的實驗室裡
13:33
inventing new things.
245
801663
1843
發明新東西時。
13:36
But it was the canals
and railroads and telegraph;
and railroads and telegraph;
246
804528
3810
但那些東西是運河、鐵路、電信；
13:40
it was radar and the Internet.
247
808362
2316
是雷達和網際網路。
13:43
It was Tang, the breakfast drink --
248
811129
2284
是菓珍，那種早餐飲品--
13:45
probably not the most important
of those developments.
of those developments.
249
813437
2877
可能不是這些發展中最重要的項目。
13:48
But what you had was
a partnership and a dialogue,
a partnership and a dialogue,
250
816795
2879
但我們曾有合作和對話，
13:51
and the dialogue has broken down.
251
819698
2265
而對話現在已經瓦解。
13:53
It's broken down because in Washington,
252
821987
2379
它瓦解是因為在華府，
13:56
less government is considered more.
253
824390
1766
大家認為政府介入越少越好，
13:58
It's broken down because there is,
believe it or not,
believe it or not,
254
826180
2479
是因為，無論你信不信
在華府，竟有人和科學作對--
14:00
in Washington, a war on science --
255
828683
1840
14:02
despite the fact that
in all of human history,
in all of human history,
256
830547
3039
儘管事實上在所有人類歷史中，
14:05
every time anyone has waged
a war on science,
a war on science,
257
833610
2960
任何時刻有任何人對科學宣戰，
14:08
science has won.
258
836594
1601
科學都獲得最終勝利。
14:11
(Applause)
259
839463
4927
(掌聲)
14:16
But we have a government
that doesn't want to listen,
that doesn't want to listen,
260
844712
4196
但我們有個不願意傾聽的政府，
14:20
that doesn't have people
at the highest levels
at the highest levels
261
848932
2159
不願意讓最高層的人
14:23
that understand this.
262
851115
1154
去了解這些。
14:24
In the nuclear age,
263
852293
1151
在核戰時期，
14:25
when there were people
in senior national security jobs,
in senior national security jobs,
264
853468
3167
在國家安全位居要職的人，
14:28
they were expected to speak throw-weight.
265
856659
3028
大家期待他們談論的是導彈荷載量。
14:32
They were expected to know
the lingo, the vocabulary.
the lingo, the vocabulary.
266
860005
3018
大家期待他們懂行話、聽不懂的字彙。
14:35
If you went to the highest level
of the U.S. government now
of the U.S. government now
267
863047
2799
現在如果你到美國政府最高層
14:37
and said, "Talk to me about cyber,
about neuroscience,
about neuroscience,
268
865870
2533
跟他們說：「和我談談
網路、談談神經科學
網路、談談神經科學
14:40
about the things that are going
to change the world of tomorrow,"
to change the world of tomorrow,"
269
868427
3140
談談即將改變未來世界的事」，
你會得到一個白眼。
14:43
you'd get a blank stare.
270
871591
1151
我知道這個，因為在我寫這本書時，
14:44
I know, because when I wrote this book,
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曾和150個人對談，
許多來自科學和科技領域，
許多來自科學和科技領域，
14:46
I talked to 150 people,
many from the science and tech side,
many from the science and tech side,
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他們都覺得自己被分配到小孩桌。
14:49
who felt like they were being
shunted off to the kids' table.
shunted off to the kids' table.
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14:53
Meanwhile, on the tech side,
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與此同時，在科技領域，
14:55
we have lots of wonderful people
creating wonderful things,
creating wonderful things,
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我們有很多很棒的人、
創造出很棒的東西，
創造出很棒的東西，
14:59
but they started in garages
and they didn't need the government
and they didn't need the government
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但他們是從自家車庫出發，
他們不需要政府，
他們不需要政府，
15:02
and they don't want the government.
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他們也不想要政府。
15:04
Many of them have a political view
that's somewhere between
that's somewhere between
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他們大部分對政治的觀點
介於解放和無政府主義之間：
15:06
libertarian and anarchic:
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15:08
leave me alone.
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離我遠一點。
15:11
But the world's coming apart.
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1814
但這世界正在逐漸分裂，
15:13
All of a sudden, there are going to be
massive regulatory changes
massive regulatory changes
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一瞬之間，將會產生巨大的規律變化、
15:17
and massive issues
associated with conflict
associated with conflict
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巨大的衝突相關議題、
15:20
and massive issues associated
with security and privacy.
with security and privacy.
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巨大的安全與隱私相關議題。
15:24
And we haven't even gotten
to the next set of issues,
to the next set of issues,
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我們甚至會有下一套議題，
就是哲學議題。
15:26
which are philosophical issues.
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1974
15:29
If you can't vote,
if you can't have a job,
if you can't have a job,
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如果你不能在沒有網路
的狀態下投票、工作、
的狀態下投票、工作、
15:32
if you can't bank,
if you can't get health care,
if you can't get health care,
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開戶、看醫生，
15:34
if you can't be educated
without Internet access,
without Internet access,
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和接受教育，
15:37
is Internet access a fundamental right
that should be written into constitutions?
that should be written into constitutions?
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那網路連線是該被寫進
憲法的基本權利嗎?
憲法的基本權利嗎?
15:42
If Internet access is a fundamental right,
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如果網路連線是基本權利，
15:45
is electricity access for the 1.2 billion
who don't have access to electricity
who don't have access to electricity
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4158
那對1.2億無法取得
電力供應的人口而言
電力供應的人口而言
15:49
a fundamental right?
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電力供應是個基本權利嗎?
15:51
These are fundamental issues.
Where are the philosophers?
Where are the philosophers?
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這些都是基礎問題，哲學家在哪裡?
15:54
Where's the dialogue?
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對話在哪裡?
15:57
And that brings me
to the reason that I'm here.
to the reason that I'm here.
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這些構成了我今天來到這裡的原因，
16:00
I live in Washington. Pity me.
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我住在華府。可憐可憐我吧。
16:03
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
16:04
The dialogue isn't happening there.
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在那裡並沒有對話發生。
16:07
These big issues
that will change the world,
that will change the world,
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這些會改變世界、
16:10
change national security,
change economics,
change economics,
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改變國家安全、改變經濟、
16:13
create hope, create threats,
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創造機會、創造威脅的重大議題，
16:15
can only be resolved
when you bring together
when you bring together
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2714
只有在你將懂科學、懂科技
16:18
groups of people who understand
science and technology
science and technology
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的群體聚在一起，
恢復和政府的合作時，
恢復和政府的合作時，
16:22
back together with government.
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才有可能解決。
16:23
Both sides need each other.
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雙方互相需要。
16:26
And until we recreate that connection,
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而唯有在我們重新創造連結，
16:31
until we do what helped America grow
and helped other countries grow,
and helped other countries grow,
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5431
做一些幫助美國成長、
也幫助其他國家成長的事之後，
也幫助其他國家成長的事之後，
16:36
then we are going to grow
ever more vulnerable.
ever more vulnerable.
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3070
我們才不會越來越脆弱。
16:40
The risks associated with 9/11
will not be measured
will not be measured
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911所帶來風險的衡量方式，
16:44
in terms of lives lost by terror attacks
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不該是恐怖攻擊帶走幾條人命、
16:47
or buildings destroyed
or trillions of dollars spent.
or trillions of dollars spent.
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4085
摧毀幾棟建築或花掉幾兆美元。
16:52
They'll be measured in terms of the costs
of our distraction from critical issues
of our distraction from critical issues
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他們的衡量方式，應該是讓我們從
緊要的議題上分心造成的代價，
緊要的議題上分心造成的代價，
16:56
and our inability to get together
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以及無法聚集起
17:00
scientists, technologists,
government leaders,
government leaders,
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科學家、科技專家和政府領導人 --
17:04
at a moment of transformation
akin to the beginning of the Renaissance,
akin to the beginning of the Renaissance,
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5135
在這樣的轉變時刻，類似於
文藝復興剛開始的時刻、
文藝復興剛開始的時刻、
17:10
akin to the beginning
of the major transformational eras
of the major transformational eras
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3718
類似於地球上許多
重大轉變剛開始時的時刻 --
重大轉變剛開始時的時刻 --
17:13
that have happened on Earth,
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17:16
and start coming up with,
if not the right answers,
if not the right answers,
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想出正確的答案，
17:20
then at least the right questions.
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或至少想出正確的問題。
17:23
We are not there yet,
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我們還沒有辦到這點，
17:25
but discussions like this
and groups like you
and groups like you
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但像這樣的討論、跟你們這樣的群眾，
17:28
are the places where those questions
can be formulated and posed.
can be formulated and posed.
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3786
會是這些問題得以
被闡述和提出的場合。
被闡述和提出的場合。
17:32
And that's why I believe
that groups like TED,
that groups like TED,
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而這正是為什麼
我相信TED這樣的群眾，
我相信TED這樣的群眾，
17:37
discussions like this around the planet,
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2593
像這樣和整個世界的討論，
17:39
are the place where the future
of foreign policy, of economic policy,
of foreign policy, of economic policy,
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4710
正是未來外交政策、經濟政策、
17:44
of social policy, of philosophy,
will ultimately take place.
will ultimately take place.
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社會政策、哲學思想產生的終極場合。
17:50
And that's why it's been
a pleasure speaking to you.
a pleasure speaking to you.
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而這就是為什麼和你們談話這麼愉快。
17:52
Thank you very, very much.
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非常感謝各位。
17:54
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
David Rothkopf - Foreign policy strategistWith books and strategies, David Rothkopf helps people navigate the perils and opportunities of our contemporary geopolitical landscape.
Why you should listen
David Rothkopf draws on decades of foreign policy experience to clarify the events shaking today’s world -- and develops strategies for organizations to weather them and those looming ahead. Rothkopf is CEO of The Rothkopf Group, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former CEO and Editor of the FP Group (which publishes Foreign Policy Magazine and Foreign Policy.com).
Rothkopf's books (including most recently National Insecurity, which focuses on the treacherous post-9/11 national security climate) argue that the nature of power and those who wield it are fundamentally transforming. He is the author of the TED Book, The Great Questions of Tomorrow.
David Rothkopf | Speaker | TED.com