ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Alexander MacDonald - Economist
TED Senior Fellow Alexander MacDonald develops strategies to advance space exploration and encourage private-sector space activities.

Why you should listen

Alexander MacDonald founded NASA's Emerging Space Office, helps build small satellite programs around the world, and is the author of The Long Space Age. He is an economist with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and is currently assigned to serve as the Senior Economic Advisor at NASA Headquarters, Washington, D.C.

MacDonald is the author and editor of a number of NASA reports including "Emerging Space: The Evolving Landscape of 21st Century American Spaceflight," "Public-Private Partnerships for Space Capability Development" and "Economic Development of Low-Earth Orbit." He also led the development of "A Strategy for Human Spaceflight in Low Earth Orbit and Economic Growth in Space," submitted to the National Space Council in 2018 by NASA, the Department of State and the Department of Commerce. And he helped develop the NASA strategy for the 2016 Presidential Transition. He is an advocate for the use of small satellites -- cubesats -- for technical and capacity development throughout the world, having helped initiate cubesat projects in Lithuania and Kyrgyzstan and having helped establish nationwide cubesat initiatives in the US and Canada.  
 
MacDonald was a research faculty member at Carnegie Mellon University and worked for the Universities Space Research Association while at NASA's Ames Research Center where he worked on small satellite mission designs and served as the center's first research economist on staff. He received his undergraduate degree in economics from Queen's University in Canada, his master's degree in economics from the University of British Columbia and was a Clarendon Scholar at the University of Oxford, where he obtained his doctorate on the long-run economic history of American space exploration. He was also an inaugural TED Senior Fellow and received the History Manuscript of the Year Award in 2016 from the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics.

More profile about the speaker
Alexander MacDonald | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxAuckland

Alexander MacDonald: How centuries of sci-fi sparked spaceflight

亚历山大·麦克唐纳: 科幻小说是如何激励我们登上月球的

Filmed:
1,642,075 views

远在火箭科学家们出现以前,对于宇宙航行的想法已经在人们的脑海中传播了好几代。TED会员和美国航天宇航局经济学家亚历山大·麦克唐纳通过精彩的视角向我们展示了300年的科幻故事——从埃德加·爱伦·坡,到儒勒·凡尔纳再到 H.G 威尔斯——是如何点燃了太空探索的文化。我们将了解到一个关于将大雁机器发送到月球的有趣故事是如何变成现实的。
- Economist
TED Senior Fellow Alexander MacDonald develops strategies to advance space exploration and encourage private-sector space activities. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
I want to tell you a story故事 about stories故事.
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今天我想讲一个关于小说的故事。
00:17
And I want to tell you this story故事
because I think we need to remember记得
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我之所以想分享这个故事
是因为我认为我们需要记住,
有时我们向别人讲述的故事
00:21
that sometimes有时 the stories故事
we tell each other
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并不仅仅是传说,或只为博君一笑
或为了记叙的故事。
00:23
are more than just tales故事
or entertainment娱乐 or narratives叙事.
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00:28
They're also vehicles汽车
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它们也承载着
我们传播跨越社会和
00:30
for sowing播种 inspiration灵感
and ideas思路 across横过 our societies社会
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时间的奇思妙想。
00:34
and across横过 time.
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00:36
The story故事 I'm about to tell you
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今天我讲的故事
是关于一个现代的
00:38
is about how one of the most advanced高级
technological技术性 achievements成就
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最高先进的科技成就
00:41
of the modern现代 era时代
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是如何起源于一个小说故事,
00:42
has its roots in stories故事,
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00:44
and how some of the most important重要
transformations转换 yet然而 to come might威力 also.
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以及一些最重要的,还未发生
的变革为何也是如此。
00:50
The story故事 begins开始 over 300 years年份 ago,
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这个故事发生在三百多年前,
在伽利略初次了解到一个
当时最新的荷兰发明的时候,
00:53
when Galileo伽利略 Galilei伽利略 first learned学到了
of the recent最近 Dutch荷兰人 invention发明
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这个发明是将两片打磨过的玻璃
放入一个长管道里,
00:57
that took two pieces of shaped成形 glass玻璃
and put them in a long tube
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并且从此将人类视野
延伸到从未有过的远度。
01:02
and thereby从而 extended扩展 human人的 sight视力
farther更远 than ever before.
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01:06
When Galileo伽利略 turned转身
his new telescope望远镜 to the heavens
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当伽利略将他新发明的望远镜对向天际
并且特别对准月亮时,
01:09
and to the Moon月亮 in particular特定,
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01:12
he discovered发现 something incredible难以置信.
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他得到了惊人的发现。
01:15
These are pages网页 from Galileo's伽利略 book
"Sidereus西德雷乌斯 Nuncius努丘斯," published发表 in 1610.
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这些内容来源于伽利略
1610年出版的《星际信使》。
01:20
And in them, he revealed透露 to the world世界
what he had discovered发现.
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他在这本书里向世界揭示了他的发现。
他发现月球不仅仅是一个
01:23
And what he discovered发现 was that the Moon月亮
was not just a celestial天上 object目的
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在夜空中游荡的天体,
01:27
wandering飘零 across横过 the night sky天空,
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而是一个
01:29
but rather, it was a world世界,
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拥有阳光照射的高山
01:32
a world世界 with high, sunlit阳光 mountains
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以深邃的“海洋"的世界。
01:35
and dark黑暗 "mare母马," the Latin拉丁 word for seas海域.
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01:40
And once一旦 this new world世界
and the Moon月亮 had been discovered发现,
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这个新世界和月亮的大门一旦开启,
人们立即开始思考如何到月球旅行。
01:42
people immediately立即 began开始
to think about how to travel旅行 there.
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同样重要的是,
01:47
And just as importantly重要的,
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他们开始着手撰写关于
01:49
they began开始 to write stories故事
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如何实现月球旅行
01:51
about how that might威力 happen发生
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以及航行细节的小说故事。
01:53
and what those voyages航行 might威力 be like.
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01:55
One of the first people to do so
was actually其实 the Bishop主教 of Hereford赫里福,
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实际上赫里福德主教是最早一批
开始做这些事的人之一,
他的真实名字是弗朗西斯·戈德温。
01:59
a man named命名 Francis弗朗西斯 Godwin戈德温.
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戈德温写了一个关于西班牙探险家
02:00
Godwin戈德温 wrote a story故事
about a Spanish西班牙语 explorer探险者,
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多明戈·冈萨雷斯的故事,
02:03
Domingo多明戈 Gonsales贡萨莱斯,
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他被困在大西洋中间
02:04
who ended结束 up marooned被困
on the island of St. Helena海伦娜
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一个叫做圣赫勒拿的岛上,
02:07
in the middle中间 of the Atlantic大西洋,
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而他为了回到家乡,
02:09
and there, in an effort功夫 to get home,
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02:12
developed发达 a machine, an invention发明,
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发明了一个机器,
这个机器可以驾驭当地的野生大雁
02:14
to harness马具 the power功率
of the local本地 wild野生 geese
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载着他飞行——
02:17
to allow允许 him to fly --
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并最终开启了一段前往月球的行程。
02:18
and eventually终于 to embark从事
on a voyage航程 to the Moon月亮.
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02:22
Godwin's戈德温的 book, "The Man in the Moone穆内,
or a Discourse话语 of a Voyage航程 Thither上去,"
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戈德温写的《月中人或论月球之旅》
在他死后的1638年才被匿名的出版,
02:26
was only published发表 posthumously死后
and anonymously匿名 in 1638,
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这极有可能是因为书中
包含着饱受争议的观点,
02:30
likely容易 on account帐户 of the number
of controversial争论的 ideas思路 that it contained,
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包括对哥白尼日心说
02:34
including包含 an endorsement背书
of the Copernican哥白尼 view视图 of the universe宇宙
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宇宙观的支持,
02:37
that put the Sun太阳 at the center中央
of the Solar太阳能 System系统,
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以及在牛顿之前提出的万有引力概念,
02:39
as well as a pre-Newtonian前牛顿
concept概念 of gravity重力
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即一个物体的重量
02:42
that had the idea理念
that the weight重量 of an object目的
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随着与地球距离增加而减少。
02:45
would decrease减少 with increasing增加
distance距离 from Earth地球.
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02:48
And that's to say nothing
of his idea理念 of a goose machine
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他的大雁机器想法也就是说说而已,
肯定是无法到月球的。
02:51
that could go to the Moon月亮.
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(观众笑)
02:53
(Laughter笑声)
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尽管这个利用大雁机器
飞向月球的想法
02:54
And while this idea理念 of a voyage航程
to the Moon月亮 by goose machine
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在今天看来并无远见,
技术上也没有创意,
02:57
might威力 not seem似乎 particularly尤其 insightful见地
or technically技术上 creative创作的 to us today今天,
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03:01
what's important重要 is that Godwin戈德温 described描述
getting得到 to the Moon月亮 not by a dream梦想
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但重要的是戈德温描述的
不是通过做梦或
像开普勒写的那样通过魔法实现登月,
03:06
or by magic魔法, as Johannes约翰内斯 Kepler开普勒
had written书面 about,
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03:09
but rather, through通过 human人的 invention发明.
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而是通过人类发明实现。
正是我们能够建造
03:12
And it was this idea理念
that we could build建立 machines
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可以遨游天际的机器
03:15
that could travel旅行 into the heavens,
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这一思想在世世代代的人心中
播下了种子。
03:17
that would plant its seed种子
in minds头脑 across横过 the generations.
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03:22
The idea理念 was next下一个 taken采取 up
by his contemporary现代的, John约翰 Wilkins威尔金斯,
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接着,同时代的约翰·威尔金斯
继承了戈德温的思想,
当时他只是一名来自
牛津大学的年轻学生,
03:25
then just a young年轻 student学生 at Oxford牛津,
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但后来,他成为了
英国皇家学会的创始人之一。
03:26
but later后来, one of the founders创始人
of the Royal王室的 Society社会.
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03:29
John约翰 Wilkins威尔金斯 took the idea理念 of space空间 travel旅行
in Godwin's戈德温的 text文本 seriously认真地
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约翰·威尔金斯认真汲取了
戈德温书中太空旅行的观点,
03:34
and wrote not just another另一个 story故事
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并在此基础上完成了另一个故事。
这是一篇非虚构类哲学类专著,
03:36
but a nonfiction纪实 philosophical哲学上 treatise论文,
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题目是《新世界的发现
03:39
entitled标题, "Discovery发现
of the New World世界 in the Moon月亮,
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或一种倾向于证明
03:41
or, a Discourse话语 Tending抚育 to Prove证明
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那颗行星上可能有个
可居住的世界的论述》。
03:44
that 'tis“TIS Probable可能 There May可能 Be
Another另一个 Habitable居住 World世界 in that Planet行星."
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03:48
And note注意, by the way,
that word "habitable可居住."
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注意“可居住“这个词。
03:51
That idea理念 in itself本身 would have
been a powerful强大 incentive激励
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这个想法本身就能强烈激励
人们思考怎样建造通往那里的机器。
03:54
for people thinking思维 about how to build建立
machines that could go there.
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03:57
In his books图书, Wilkins威尔金斯 seriously认真地 considered考虑
a number of technical技术 methods方法
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在书中,威尔金斯严谨地
考虑了几种太空飞行的
技术方法,
04:01
for spaceflight航天,
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这是已知最早的非虚构类的
04:02
and it remains遗迹 to this day
the earliest最早 known已知 nonfiction纪实 account帐户
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关于我们如何登月的说明。
04:06
of how we might威力 travel旅行 to the Moon月亮.
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其他故事接踵而至,最有名的
是西拉诺·德·贝尔热拉克的
04:08
Other stories故事 would soon不久 follow跟随,
most notably特别是 by Cyrano塞拉诺 de Bergerac伯杰拉克,
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《月球传说》。
04:11
with his "Lunar太阴 Tales故事."
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到17世纪中期,人们建机器
04:12
By the mid-中-17th century世纪,
the idea理念 of people building建造 machines
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飞向太空的想法
04:15
that could travel旅行 to the heavens
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逐渐趋于复杂和技术差异化。
04:18
was growing生长 in complexity复杂
and technical技术 nuance细微差别.
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04:22
And yet然而, in the late晚了 17th century世纪,
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但在十七世纪晚期,
这项智力上的进步实际上停止了。
04:25
this intellectual知识分子 progress进展
effectively有效 ceased停止.
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04:28
People still told stories故事
about getting得到 to the Moon月亮,
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人们虽然依旧讲述着
去往月亮的故事,
但他们依赖着过去的想法,
04:30
but they relied on the old ideas思路
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或是再一次依赖于梦或是魔法。
04:32
or, once一旦 again, on dreams or on magic魔法.
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04:36
Why?
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为什么?
因为牛顿发现的万有引力定律
04:37
Well, because the discovery发现
of the laws法律 of gravity重力 by Newton牛顿
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以及罗伯特·胡克与
罗伯特·波伊尔发明的真空泵
04:41
and the invention发明 of the vacuum真空 pump
by Robert罗伯特 Hooke胡克 and Robert罗伯特 Boyle博伊尔
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意味着人们现在认识到
04:46
meant意味着 that people now understood了解
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星球之间存在真空环境,
04:47
that a condition条件 of vacuum真空
existed存在 between之间 the planets行星,
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因此推断地球与月球
之间也是如此。
04:50
and consequentially必然
between之间 the Earth地球 and the Moon月亮.
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他们没有克服的方法,
04:53
And they had no way of overcoming克服 this,
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也没有思考如何克服。
04:55
no way of thinking思维 about overcoming克服 this.
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一个多世纪过去了,
04:58
And so, for well over a century世纪,
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05:00
the idea理念 of a voyage航程 to the Moon月亮
made制作 very little intellectual知识分子 progress进展
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登月想法实质上只有细微的进展。
05:04
until直到 the rise上升 of
the Industrial产业 Revolution革命
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这种情况持续到工业革命兴起。
蒸汽机和锅炉的发展,
05:07
and the development发展
of steam蒸汽 engines引擎 and boilers锅炉
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最重要的是压力容器的发明。
05:09
and most importantly重要的, pressure压力 vessels船只.
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05:13
And these gave people the tools工具 to think
about how they could build建立 a capsule胶囊
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这赋予人们工具来建造
能抵御真空宇宙的太空舱。
05:17
that could resist the vacuum真空 of space空间.
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05:20
So it was in this context上下文, in 1835,
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在这一背景下,1835年,
下一个宇宙航行的故事
05:23
that the next下一个 great story故事
of spaceflight航天 was written书面,
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被爱伦·坡所写。
05:26
by Edgar埃德加 Allan艾伦 Poe.
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05:28
Now, today今天 we think of Poe
in terms条款 of gothic哥特 poems
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如今,我们提到爱伦·坡,
就会想到哥特诗、
短篇小说《泄密的心》
以及诗歌《乌鸦》,
05:31
and telltale揭秘 hearts心中 and ravens乌鸦.
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05:34
But he considered考虑 himself他自己
a technical技术 thinker思想家.
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但是他认为自己是一个技术思想家。
05:36
He grew成长 up in Baltimore巴尔的摩,
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他在巴尔的摩长大,
一个最早拥有燃气路灯的美国城市,
05:38
the first American美国 city
with gas加油站 street lighting灯光,
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他被在他周围发生的
05:40
and he was fascinated入迷
by the technological技术性 revolution革命
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技术革命所吸引。
05:43
that he saw going on all around him.
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他认为自己的最大成就
不是他的哥特诗,
05:45
He considered考虑 his own拥有 greatest最大 work
not to be one of his gothic哥特 tales故事
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而是他史诗般的散文诗歌《我发现了》。
05:48
but rather his epic史诗 prose散文 poem "Eureka尤里卡,"
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他详述了自己关于
05:51
in which哪一个 he expounded阐述
his own拥有 personal个人 view视图
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宇宙的结构本质的个人观点。
05:53
of the cosmographical宇宙学 nature性质
of the universe宇宙.
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05:57
In his stories故事, he would describe描述
in fantastical荒诞 technical技术 detail详情
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他在故事中详细描述了空想的
机器装置技术,
06:00
machines and contraptions玩意儿,
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在这方面,他的短篇小说
《汉斯·普法尔历险记》
06:02
and nowhere无处 was he more influential有影响
in this than in his short story故事,
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最有影响力。
06:06
"The Unparalleled无与伦比 Adventure冒险
of One Hans汉斯 Pfaall普法尔."
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06:10
It's a story故事 of an unemployed失业的
bellows风箱 maker制作者 in Rotterdam鹿特丹,
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小说讲述了一个
在鹿特丹做风箱的失业者,
抑郁不得志,厌倦了人生
——这毕竟是爱伦·坡的风格——
06:13
who, depressed郁闷 and tired of life --
this is Poe, after all --
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而且欠了一屁股债的故事。
06:16
and deeply in debt债务,
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他决定建造一个气密封闭
的气球运输船,
06:18
he decides决定 to build建立 a hermetically密封
enclosed封闭 balloon-borne气球载 carriage运输
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06:22
that is launched推出 into the air空气 by dynamite炸药
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通过炸药发射到空中,
并从那里漂浮到太空中,
06:25
and from there, floats彩车
through通过 the vacuum真空 of space空间
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一直到月球表面。
06:27
all the way to the lunar太阴 surface表面.
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06:30
And importantly重要的, he did not
develop发展 this story故事 alone单独,
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重要的是,这个故事
并不是他独自的创作,
在故事的附录中,
06:33
for in the appendix附录 to his tale故事,
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他明确地承认了这本书受到戈德温
06:35
he explicitly明确地 acknowledged承认 Godwin's戈德温的
"A Man in the Moone穆内"
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200多年前的小说《月中人》
06:38
from over 200 years年份 earlier
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的影响,
06:41
as an influence影响,
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他称这是“一本非凡绝妙的小书”。
06:43
calling调用 it "a singular单数 and somewhat有些
ingenious巧妙 little book."
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06:47
And although虽然 this idea理念 of a balloon-borne气球载
voyage航程 to the Moon月亮 may可能 seem似乎
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虽然这个利用气球运输机
去往月球的想法
看起来在技术上
比大雁机器靠谱不了多少,
06:51
not much more technically技术上 sophisticated复杂的
than the goose machine,
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06:55
in fact事实, Poe was sufficiently充分地 detailed详细
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但事实上,爱伦坡非常详细的
描述了设备的构造,
06:58
in the description描述
of the construction施工 of the device设备
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并且就航行的轨道动力学而言,
07:02
and in terms条款 of the orbital轨道的
dynamics动力学 of the voyage航程
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它可以在第一本航天百科全书中
07:05
that it could be diagrammed图解
in the very first spaceflight航天 encyclopedia百科全书
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作为20世纪20年代的使命来描绘。
07:09
as a mission任务 in the 1920s.
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07:13
And it was this attention注意 to detail详情,
or to "verisimilitude逼真," as he called it,
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正是对于细节的专注或
如他自己所说的“逼真”,
影响了下一个伟大的故事——
07:18
that would influence影响 the next下一个 great story故事:
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07:20
Jules儒勒 Verne's凡尔纳的 "From the Earth地球
to the Moon月亮," written书面 in 1865.
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凡尔纳在1865年写了《从地球到月球》。
07:24
And it's a story故事 that has
a remarkable卓越 legacy遗产
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这是一个给后世留下了
伟大遗产的故事,
与真正发生于百年之后的
07:27
and a remarkable卓越 similarity相似
to the real真实 voyages航行 to the Moon月亮
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月球之旅有着惊人的相似之处。
07:30
that would take place地点
over a hundred years年份 later后来.
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因为在这个故事里,
第一次登月始于佛罗里达,
07:32
Because in the story故事, the first voyage航程
to the Moon月亮 takes place地点 from Florida佛罗里达,
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飞船上有三人,
07:37
with three people on board,
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经历了3天行程——
07:40
in a trip that takes three days --
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这些数据与阿波罗计划完全一致。
07:42
exactly究竟 the parameters参数 that would prevail战胜
during the Apollo阿波罗 program程序 itself本身.
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07:47
And in an explicit明确的 tribute
to Poe's坡的 influence影响 on him,
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为了向爱伦坡致敬,
凡尔纳将这本书中
负责这一伟大壮举的组织
07:50
Verne凡尔纳 situated位于 the group responsible主管
for this feat功绩 in the book in Baltimore巴尔的摩,
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设立在巴尔的摩枪支俱乐部。
07:54
at the Baltimore巴尔的摩 Gun Club俱乐部,
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当他们开始制定征服月球的计划时,
07:56
with its members会员 shouting叫喊,
"Cheers干杯 for Edgar埃德加 Poe!"
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成员们大喊“为爱伦坡干杯!”
07:58
as they began开始 to lay铺设 out their plans计划
for their conquest征服 of the Moon月亮.
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08:02
And just as Verne凡尔纳 was influenced影响 by Poe,
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正如凡尔纳深受爱伦坡的影响,
凡尔纳自己的故事接着启发影响了
08:04
so, too, would Verne's凡尔纳的 own拥有 story故事
go on to influence影响 and inspire启发
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第一代火箭科学家们。
08:08
the first generation of rocket火箭 scientists科学家们.
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两位分别来自于俄罗斯与德国
的液体燃料火箭的先驱,
08:10
The two great pioneers开拓者 of liquid液体 fuel汽油
rocketry火箭 in Russia俄国 and in Germany德国,
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Konstantin Tsiolkovsky
与 Hermann Oberth,
08:13
Konstantin康斯坦丁 Tsiolkovsky奇奥尔科夫斯基 and Hermann赫尔曼 Oberth奥伯斯,
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他们投身于太空飞行领域都能追溯到
08:16
both traced追踪 their own拥有 commitment承诺
to the field领域 of spaceflight航天
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青少年时期读了《从地球到月球》这本书,
08:19
to their reading "From the Earth地球
to the Moon月亮" as teenagers青少年,
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然后致力于
08:22
and then subsequently后来
committing提交 themselves他们自己
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使这个故事成真。
08:24
to trying to make that story故事 a reality现实.
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08:27
And Verne's凡尔纳的 story故事 was not
the only one in the 19th century世纪
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凡尔纳的故事不是十九世纪唯一
有长远影响的一个。
08:30
with a long arm of influence影响.
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在大西洋的另一边,
08:32
On the other side of the Atlantic大西洋,
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威尔斯的《世界大战》直接启发了
08:34
H.G. Wells's威尔斯的 "War战争 of the Worlds世界"
directly inspired启发
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一个麻省的年轻人,罗伯特·戈达德。
08:36
a young年轻 man in Massachusetts马萨诸塞,
Robert罗伯特 Goddard戈达德.
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08:40
And it was after reading
"War战争 of the Worlds世界"
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正是在读了《世界大战》后,
他在日记里写道,
08:42
that Goddard戈达德 wrote in his diary日记,
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19世纪90年代末的一天,
08:44
one day in the late晚了 1890s,
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他在家里的农场修剪樱桃树时,
08:46
of resting休息 while trimming修剪
a cherry樱桃 tree on his family's家庭的 farm农场
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在脑海中浮现了宇宙飞船
从下面的山谷起飞
08:49
and having a vision视力 of a spacecraft宇宙飞船
taking服用 off from the valley below下面
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上升到空中这一幕。
08:55
and ascending上升 into the heavens.
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从此他决定将余生奉献于研发
08:56
And he decided决定 then and there
that he would commit承诺 the rest休息 of his life
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他脑海中出现的宇宙飞船。
09:00
to the development发展 of the spacecraft宇宙飞船
that he saw in his mind's心灵的 eye.
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09:05
And he did exactly究竟 that.
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他的确做到了。
09:07
Throughout始终 his career事业,
he would celebrate庆祝 that day
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在他的职业生涯中,
他将修剪樱桃树那一天
作为他的周年纪念日来庆祝,
09:09
as his anniversary周年 day,
his cherry樱桃 tree day,
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为了不断获得灵感,
不断提醒自己的承诺,
09:12
and he would regularly经常 read and reread重读
the works作品 of Verne凡尔纳 and of Wells韦尔斯
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他反复研读凡尔纳与威尔斯的著作,
09:15
in order订购 to renew更新 his inspiration灵感
and his commitment承诺
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经过数十年的努力工作,
09:19
over the decades几十年 of labor劳动
and effort功夫 that would be required需要
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终于在1926年
09:23
to realize实现 the first part部分 of his dream梦想:
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实现了梦想的第一部分——
09:25
the flight飞行 of a liquid液体 fuel汽油 rocket火箭,
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发明了液体火箭。
09:27
which哪一个 he finally最后 achieved实现 in 1926.
186
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09:30
So it was while reading "From the Earth地球
to the Moon月亮" and "The War战争 of the Worlds世界"
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正是在《从地球到月球》
和《世界大战》这些书中,
第一批航天先驱受到启发,
并将其一生投入到
09:34
that the first pioneers开拓者 of astronautics航天
were inspired启发 to dedicate奉献 their lives生活
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解决宇宙飞船的问题中。
09:38
to solving the problems问题 of spaceflight航天.
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正是他们的文章与作品
09:40
And it was their treatises论文
and their works作品 in turn
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促进了第一个技术社区
09:43
that inspired启发 the first
technical技术 communities社区
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和第一个宇宙飞行项目的诞生,
09:45
and the first projects项目 of spaceflight航天,
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从而形成了直接的影响力链。
09:47
thus从而 creating创建 a direct直接 chain of influence影响
193
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从戈德温到爱伦坡、凡尔纳,
09:50
that goes from Godwin戈德温 to Poe to Verne凡尔纳
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再到阿波罗计划,
09:52
to the Apollo阿波罗 program程序
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直到今天的宇宙飞行。
09:54
and to the present-day今天
communities社区 of spaceflight航天.
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09:57
So why I have told you all this?
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我讲这些故事的原因
10:00
Is it just because I think it's cool,
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仅仅是因为我觉得这很酷吗?
10:03
or because I'm just
weirdly古怪 fascinated入迷 by stories故事
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还是仅仅因为我被这些奇怪的,
10:07
of 17th-TH- and 19th-centuryTH-世纪 science科学 fiction小说?
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17或19世纪的科幻小说
所深深地吸引着?
10:10
It is, admittedly固然, partly部分地 that.
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我承认,这是部分原因。
10:14
But I also think
that these stories故事 remind提醒 us
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但更重要的是,这些故事提醒着我们,
文化进程推动了宇宙飞行
10:16
of the cultural文化 processes流程
driving主动 spaceflight航天
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甚至更广义上的技术创新。
10:19
and even technological技术性
innovation革新 more broadly宽广地.
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10:22
As an economist经济学家 working加工 at NASANASA,
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作为一名在美国宇航局
工作的经济学家,
我常思考有关人类迈向宇宙的
10:24
I spend time thinking思维 about
the economic经济 origins起源
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经济起源。
10:26
of our movement运动 out into the cosmos宇宙.
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10:29
And when you look before the investments投资
of billionaire亿万富翁 tech高科技 entrepreneurs企业家
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在来自科技圈的
亿万富翁企业家的投资,
冷战时期的太空竞赛,
10:34
and before the Cold War战争 Space空间 Race种族,
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1708
甚至在军方投资液体燃料火箭之前,
10:36
and even before the military军事 investments投资
in liquid液体 fuel汽油 rocketry火箭,
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太空旅行就已经起源于故事和想法中。
10:39
the economic经济 origins起源 of spaceflight航天
are found发现 in stories故事 and in ideas思路.
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10:46
It was in these stories故事 that the first
concepts概念 for spaceflight航天 were articulated铰接式.
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正是在这些故事里,人们构建了
第一个太空飞行的概念,
也正是通过这些故事,
10:50
And it was through通过 these stories故事
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对未来人类在太空生活的憧憬
10:51
that the narrative叙述 of a future未来
for humanity人性 in space空间
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开始在大众的脑海中传播开来,
10:56
began开始 to propagate传播 from mind心神 to mind心神,
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并最终形成了跨越几代人
的知识共同体,
10:58
eventually终于 creating创建 an intergenerational代际
intellectual知识分子 community社区
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去不断迭代太空飞船的构思,
11:02
that would iterate迭代
on the ideas思路 for spacecraft宇宙飞船
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直到真的建成太空飞船。
11:05
until直到 such这样 a time
as they could finally最后 be built内置.
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11:09
This process处理 has now been going on
for over 300 years年份,
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这个过程一直持续了三百多年,
形成了太空飞行文化。
11:13
and the result结果 is
a culture文化 of spaceflight航天.
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11:17
It's a culture文化 that involves涉及
thousands数千 of people
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数千人在几百年间
对其做出了贡献。
11:19
over hundreds数以百计 of years年份.
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11:21
Because for hundreds数以百计 of years年份,
some of us have looked看着 at the stars明星
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因为上百年来,我们当中的
一些人在不断仰望星空,
渴望登月。
11:25
and longed渴望 to go.
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1192
因为几百年来,
11:26
And because for hundreds数以百计 of years年份,
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我们中的一些人致力于
11:28
some of us have dedicated专用 our labors劳动力
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发展使这些航行成为可能
11:29
to the development发展
of the concepts概念 and systems系统
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所需要的概念和系统。
11:32
required需要 to make those voyages航行 possible可能.
228
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11:35
I also wanted to tell you
about Godwin戈德温, Poe and Verne凡尔纳
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2627
我给大家讲述戈德温、
爱伦坡和凡尔纳的故事,
是因为我认为他们的故事告诉了我们
11:38
because I think their stories故事
also tell us of the importance重要性
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人们口口相传的关于未来的
故事具有更普遍的重要性。
11:42
of the stories故事 that we tell each other
about the future未来 more generally通常.
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3732
因为这些故事不仅仅
传递了信息或想法,
11:45
Because these stories故事 don't just
transmit发送 information信息 or ideas思路.
232
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还孕育了一种激情,
11:49
They can also nurture培育 passions激情,
233
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2002
11:52
passions激情 that can lead us
to dedicate奉献 our lives生活
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2245
一种可以让人贡献一生
去实现重要计划的激情。
11:54
to the realization实现 of important重要 projects项目.
235
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2438
11:56
Which哪一个 means手段 that these stories故事 can and do
236
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2484
这意味着这些故事也确实可以
影响未来几个世纪的
11:59
influence影响 social社会 and technological技术性 forces军队
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社会和科技进步。
12:02
centuries百年 into the future未来.
238
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1950
12:05
I think we need to realize实现 this
and remember记得 it when we tell our stories故事.
239
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3522
我认为当我们讲故事的时候,
需要意识到并牢记这点。
12:09
We need to work hard to write stories故事
240
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1852
我们需要努力地撰写故事,
不只是说明我们可能
走上的反乌托邦道路
12:11
that don't just show显示 us the possible可能
dystopian反乌托邦 paths路径 we may可能 take
241
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3056
是出于这样一种恐惧,
即对彼此讲述的反乌托邦故事越多,
12:14
for a fear恐惧 that the more dystopian反乌托邦
stories故事 we tell each other,
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3159
我们为可能的反乌托邦未来
播下的种子就越多。
12:17
the more we plant seeds种子
for possible可能 dystopian反乌托邦 futures期货.
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3091
12:21
Instead代替 we need to tell stories故事
that plant the seeds种子,
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2507
相反,我们需要讲述一些故事,
即使不一定是为乌托邦播下种子,
12:23
if not necessarily一定 for utopias乌托邦,
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至少也要为伟大的新技术、
社会和体制改革项目
12:25
then at least最小 for great new projects项目
of technological技术性, societal社会的
246
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3587
播下种子。
12:29
and institutional制度 transformation转型.
247
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1710
12:31
And if we think of this idea理念
that the stories故事 we tell each other
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3237
如果我们认为
我们对彼此讲述的故事
可以扭转未来的这个想法
12:34
can transform转变 the future未来
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1638
是异想天开或是不可能的话,
12:36
is fanciful撒娇的 or impossible不可能,
250
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2357
那么我认为我们需要记住一个例子,
12:38
then I think we need to remember记得
the example of this,
251
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2511
我们的探月之旅,
12:41
our voyage航程 to the Moon月亮,
252
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1653
这个从17世纪便浮现的想法,
12:42
an idea理念 from the 17th century世纪
253
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2257
已经在文化中传播了超过300年,
12:45
that propagated传播 culturally文化
for over 300 years年份
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直到探月之旅最终实现。
12:49
until直到 it could finally最后 be realized实现.
255
757130
1841
12:51
So, we need to write new stories故事,
256
759842
2916
因此,我们需要撰写新的故事,
12:55
stories故事 that, 300 years年份 in the future未来,
257
763615
1941
让人们在300年以后的未来
可以通过这些故事回溯过去,去评价
12:57
people will be able能够
to look back upon and remark备注
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765580
2877
它们是如何启发人们到达
新的高度,突破新的边界。
13:00
how they inspired启发 us
to new heights高度 and to new shores海岸,
259
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3425
它们是如何向我们展示
新道路和新的可能性,
13:03
how they showed显示 us new paths路径
and new possibilities可能性,
260
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以及它们是如何更好地
塑造了我们的世界。
13:07
and how they shaped成形
our world世界 for the better.
261
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2224
谢谢大家。
13:09
Thank you.
262
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1170
(掌声)
13:10
(Applause掌声)
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Translated by zoe chan
Reviewed by psjmz mz

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Alexander MacDonald - Economist
TED Senior Fellow Alexander MacDonald develops strategies to advance space exploration and encourage private-sector space activities.

Why you should listen

Alexander MacDonald founded NASA's Emerging Space Office, helps build small satellite programs around the world, and is the author of The Long Space Age. He is an economist with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and is currently assigned to serve as the Senior Economic Advisor at NASA Headquarters, Washington, D.C.

MacDonald is the author and editor of a number of NASA reports including "Emerging Space: The Evolving Landscape of 21st Century American Spaceflight," "Public-Private Partnerships for Space Capability Development" and "Economic Development of Low-Earth Orbit." He also led the development of "A Strategy for Human Spaceflight in Low Earth Orbit and Economic Growth in Space," submitted to the National Space Council in 2018 by NASA, the Department of State and the Department of Commerce. And he helped develop the NASA strategy for the 2016 Presidential Transition. He is an advocate for the use of small satellites -- cubesats -- for technical and capacity development throughout the world, having helped initiate cubesat projects in Lithuania and Kyrgyzstan and having helped establish nationwide cubesat initiatives in the US and Canada.  
 
MacDonald was a research faculty member at Carnegie Mellon University and worked for the Universities Space Research Association while at NASA's Ames Research Center where he worked on small satellite mission designs and served as the center's first research economist on staff. He received his undergraduate degree in economics from Queen's University in Canada, his master's degree in economics from the University of British Columbia and was a Clarendon Scholar at the University of Oxford, where he obtained his doctorate on the long-run economic history of American space exploration. He was also an inaugural TED Senior Fellow and received the History Manuscript of the Year Award in 2016 from the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics.

More profile about the speaker
Alexander MacDonald | Speaker | TED.com

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