TED2010
Gary Lauder's new traffic sign: Take Turns
Gary Lauder設計的新交通標誌：輪流通行
Filmed:
Readability: 3.4
633,836 views
50%的交通事故發生在十字路口，Gary Lauder告訴我們一個既聰明又便宜的方法，可以讓駕駛順暢地通過十字路口：一個結合“停”和“讓”的新交通標誌，並要求駕駛們要遵守行車禮儀。
Gary Lauder - Venture capitalist
Gary Lauder is the managing partner of Lauder Partners, a VC firm, and the co-creator of the Socrates Society at the Aspen Institute. Full bio
Gary Lauder is the managing partner of Lauder Partners, a VC firm, and the co-creator of the Socrates Society at the Aspen Institute. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
I only have three minutes
0
0
2000
我只有三分鐘
00:17
so I'm going to have to talk fast, and it will
1
2000
2000
所以我打算講得快一點
00:19
use up your spare mental cycles, so multitasking may be hard.
2
4000
4000
你們得專心一點，因為你很難再同時做別的事情了
00:23
So, 27 years ago I got a traffic ticket
3
8000
2000
27年前我收到一張交通罰單
00:25
that got me thinking.
4
10000
2000
這讓我開始想一些事情
00:27
I've had some time to think it over.
5
12000
2000
我仔細地想了又想
00:29
And energy efficiency is more than just
6
14000
2000
發覺提昇能源效能這件事
00:31
about the vehicle --
7
16000
2000
不只和汽車的性能有關
00:33
it's also about the road.
8
18000
2000
也和道路狀況有關
00:35
Road design makes a difference, particularly intersections,
9
20000
2000
道路的設計非常重要，尤其是在十字路口
00:37
of which there are two types: signalized
10
22000
2000
有二種交通號誌：一種是紅綠燈號
00:39
and unsignalized, which means stop signs.
11
24000
2000
一種是標誌，也就是“停”這個標誌
00:41
Fifty percent of crashes happen at intersections.
12
26000
2000
有50%的車禍發生在十字路口
00:43
Roundabouts are much better.
13
28000
2000
圓環就沒有這麼多車禍
00:45
A study of 24 intersections
14
30000
2000
一項針對24個十字路口所做的研究發現
00:47
has found crashes drop 40 percent
15
32000
3000
把十字路口改成圓環後
00:50
from when you convert a traffic light into a roundabout.
16
35000
3000
車禍發生率降低了40%
00:53
Injury crashes have dropped 76 percent,
17
38000
3000
有人受傷的車禍案件下降了76%
00:56
fatal crashes down 90 percent.
18
41000
2000
致命的車禍則下降了90%
00:58
But that's just safety.
19
43000
2000
但這只考慮到行車安全而已
01:00
What about time and gas?
20
45000
2000
我們所浪費的時間和汽油又怎麼計算？
01:02
So, traffic keeps flowing, so that means less braking,
21
47000
2000
若交通一路順暢，就表示減少了煞車的機率
01:04
which means less accelerating, less gas and less pollution,
22
49000
3000
也減少了踩油門的機率，同時減少了汽油用量、減少空氣污染
01:07
less time wasted,
23
52000
2000
減少時間的浪費
01:09
and that partly accounts for Europe's better efficiency
24
54000
2000
這多少要歸功於歐洲的優良設計
01:11
than we have in the United States.
25
56000
2000
我們美國做得就沒有這麼好
01:13
So, unsignalized intersections,
26
58000
2000
所以，沒有紅綠燈號的十字路口
01:15
meaning stop signs, they save many lives,
27
60000
2000
通常都設有“停”這個標誌，確保行車平安
01:17
but there's an excessive proliferation of them.
28
62000
2000
但是似乎設置得太過浮濫
01:19
Small roundabouts are starting to appear.
29
64000
3000
所以小型的圓環就開始出現了
01:22
This is one in my neighborhood. And they are
30
67000
3000
這是我住家附近的一個圓環
01:25
much better -- better than traffic lights, better than four-way stop signs.
31
70000
3000
我覺得比紅綠燈好，也比四向都設“停”這個標誌來得好
01:28
They're expensive to install,
32
73000
2000
設置這些圓環的成本不低
01:30
but they are more expensive not to. So, we should look at that.
33
75000
3000
但是不設置卻會付出更高的代價，讓我們看看以下的分析
01:33
But they are not applicable in all situations.
34
78000
1000
這個分析並不適用於每一種狀況
01:34
So, take, for example, the three-way intersection.
35
79000
3000
所以我舉三岔路口為例
01:37
So, it's logical that you'd have one there,
36
82000
2000
在次幹道要進入主幹道的路口上
01:39
on the minor road entering the major.
37
84000
2000
設置“停”這個標誌是很合理
01:41
But the other two are somewhat questionable.
38
86000
3000
但另外二個就還有一點討論空間
01:44
So, here's one. There's another one which I studied.
39
89000
2000
所以這裡有一個，那裡還有一個
01:46
Cars rarely appear on that third road.
40
91000
3000
但是車子卻很少從次幹道出現
01:49
And so, the question is, what does that cost us?
41
94000
2000
所以我想到一個問題，我們到底為這些標誌付出多少成本？
01:51
That intersection I looked at had about 3,000
42
96000
2000
我所研究的路口，每天每一個方向
01:53
cars per day in each direction,
43
98000
2000
約有3千輛車經過
01:55
and so that's two ounces of gas to accelerate out of.
44
100000
2000
每輛車需要2盎司的汽油才能再從停止狀態加速啟動
01:57
That's five cents each, and times 3,000 cars per day,
45
102000
2000
油錢大約是五分美金，乘上每天有3千輛車
01:59
that's $51,000 per year.
46
104000
3000
一年大約就要花掉美金5萬1千元
02:02
That's just the gasoline cost. There is also pollution,
47
107000
2000
這只是油錢而已，還有空氣污染
02:04
wear on the car, and time.
48
109000
2000
汽車零件和時間等等
02:06
What's that time worth?
49
111000
2000
時間要怎麼換算成金錢？
02:08
Well, at 10 seconds per 3,000 cars,
50
113000
2000
3千輛車每輛車花個10秒
02:10
that's 8.3 hours per day. The average wage in the U.S.
51
115000
2000
一天下來就累積出8.3個小時
02:12
is $20 an hour. That is 60,000 per year.
52
117000
4000
美國的平均薪資是每小時20美金，一年下來就是6萬美金
02:16
Add that together with the gas, and it's $112,000 per year,
53
121000
3000
再把油錢加上去，每年我們因為“停”這個標誌
02:19
just for that sign in each direction.
54
124000
2000
在一個方向的車流上就花掉11萬2千美金
02:21
Discount that back to the present, at five percent:
55
126000
2000
我們再用5%的年利率折現成現值
02:23
over two million dollars
56
128000
3000
在一個路口為雙向車流各設置一個“停”的標誌
02:26
for a stop sign, in each direction.
57
131000
3000
要花超過二百萬美金
02:29
Now, if you look at what that adjacent property is worth,
58
134000
4000
如果你看看鄰近土地的價值
02:33
you could actually buy the property,
59
138000
2000
你大可以用這二百萬買下一塊地
02:35
cut down the shrubbery to improve the sight line,
60
140000
3000
砍掉附近的灌木叢改善一下視野
02:38
and then sell it off again.
61
143000
2000
再脫手一次
02:40
And you'd still come out ahead.
62
145000
2000
你都還有賺頭
02:42
So, it makes one wonder, "Why is it there?"
63
147000
2000
這不禁讓人想問：“為什麼要這樣做？”
02:44
I mean, why is there that stop sign in each direction?
64
149000
3000
我的意思是，為什麼要在每一個方向都設置一個“停”的標誌？
02:47
Because it is saving lives. So, is there a better way to accomplish that goal?
65
152000
3000
就因為安全考量嗎？有沒有什麼別的方法可以達成這個目的？
02:50
The answer is to enable cars
66
155000
2000
答案是我們該確保從次幹道出來的車子
02:52
to come in from that side road safely.
67
157000
2000
安全地通過
02:54
Because there are a lot of people who might live up there
68
159000
2000
因為有許多人可能住在裡面
02:56
and if they're waiting forever a long queue could form
69
161000
2000
若主幹道的車子都不減速
02:58
because the cars aren't slowing down on the main road.
70
163000
3000
那這些車子可能就會等上很久才能通過
03:01
Can that be accomplished with existing signs?
71
166000
2000
我們是否能用既有的交通標誌來解決這個問題呢？
03:03
So, there is a long history of stop signs and yield signs.
72
168000
3000
我們可以考慮一下有悠久歷史的“停”和“讓”這二個標誌
03:06
Stop signs were invented in 1915,
73
171000
2000
“停”這個標誌是在1915年問世
03:08
yield signs in 1950. But that's all we got.
74
173000
3000
“讓”這個標誌則是在1950年，我們只有這二個選擇
03:11
So, why not use a yield sign?
75
176000
2000
我們是否可以選擇使用“讓”這個標誌？
03:13
Well the meaning of yield is: You must yield the right-of-way.
76
178000
3000
讓的意思是：你必須禮讓用路的權利
03:16
That means that if there are five cars waiting, you have to wait
77
181000
2000
也就是說，若有五輛車已經等在那裡了
03:18
till they all go, then you go. It lacks the notion
78
183000
2000
你必須等到他們都離開後，你才能走
03:20
of alternating, or taking turns,
79
185000
2000
這裡面缺少了輪流的概念
03:22
and it's always on the minor road,
80
187000
2000
而且次幹道的用路人永遠必須
03:24
allowing the major one to have primacy.
81
189000
2000
禮讓主幹道的用路人先行
03:26
So, it's hard to create a new meaning for the existing sign.
82
191000
2000
所以用既有的標誌很難表達出新的意義
03:28
You couldn't suddenly tell everyone, "OK, remember
83
193000
2000
你不能突然對大家說：還記得原來
03:30
what you used to do at yield signs? Now do something different."
84
195000
2000
“讓”這個標誌的涵義嗎？現在有不同的解釋哦
03:32
That would not work.
85
197000
2000
這樣是行不通的
03:34
So, what the world needs now
86
199000
2000
所以我們需要的
03:36
is a new type of sign.
87
201000
2000
是一個全新的交通標誌
03:38
(Applause)
88
203000
4000
(掌聲)
03:42
So, you'd have a little instruction below it,
89
207000
3000
下面還有一段小說明
03:45
you know, for those who didn't see the public service announcements.
90
210000
2000
讓那些從來不關心政府公告的人可以參考
03:47
And it merges the stop sign and yield signs.
91
212000
3000
這個標誌結合了“停”和“讓”這二個標誌
03:50
It's kind of shaped like a T, as in taking turns.
92
215000
2000
形狀就像個“T”，教大家要輪流通過
03:52
And uncertainty results in caution.
93
217000
3000
而且在不確定的狀況下會讓人更加小心
03:55
When people come to an unfamiliar situation they don't know how to deal with
94
220000
2000
當你看到一個不熟悉的標誌，又不知道該怎麼辦的時候
03:57
they slow down.
95
222000
2000
你就會減速下來
03:59
So, now that you are all "Road Scholars" ...
96
224000
2000
現在，你們都是“道路專家”了
04:01
(Laughter)
97
226000
1000
(笑聲)
04:02
don't wait for that sign to be adopted, these things don't change quickly.
98
227000
3000
不必等政府採用這個新標誌，因為改變沒有這麼快
04:05
But you all are members of communities,
99
230000
2000
但是每一個人都是社區的一員
04:07
and you can exercise your community influence
100
232000
2000
你可以運用你的影響力
04:09
to create more sensible traffic flows.
101
234000
2000
讓你的社區擁有更合理的交通秩序
04:11
And you can have more impact on the environment
102
236000
2000
而且你只要讓社區改變一些事情
04:13
just getting your neighborhood to change these things
103
238000
2000
就可以改變整個環境
04:15
than by changing your vehicle. Thank you very much.
104
240000
3000
而不必更換你的汽車，謝謝大家
04:18
(Applause)
105
243000
3000
(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Gary Lauder - Venture capitalistGary Lauder is the managing partner of Lauder Partners, a VC firm, and the co-creator of the Socrates Society at the Aspen Institute.
Why you should listen
Gary Lauder is the Managing Partner of Lauder Partners LLC, a Silicon Valley-based venture capital firm investing primarily in information technologies. He has been a venture capitalist since 1985, investing in some 60 private companies. He is also chair of ActiveVideo Networks, a developer of interactive television technology for cable, IPTV and other forms of internet delivery. Other directorships: Promptu, MediaFriends and ShotSpotter. Investments are primarily in television/IPTV technology and web arenas.
He is the co-creator of the Aspen Institute's Socrates Society with Laura, his wife. He has had a working cable modem (usually) in his home since 1994. He is co-inventor of 10 patents, has spoken at some 80 industry forums, and, since 1992, has published several articles about the future of the cable industry ... that he still stands by.
Gary Lauder | Speaker | TED.com