TEDxZurich 2012
James B. Glattfelder: Who controls the world?
James B. Glattfelder: Hvem styrer verden?
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Readability: 5
2,753,507 views
James Glattfelder studerer kompleksitet: Hvordan forbundne systemer -- f.eks. fugleflokke -- er mere end bare summen af deres dele. Kompleksitetsteori, viser det sig, kan afslører en masse om hvordan økonomien fungerer. Glattfelder deler her et nyskabende studie om hvordan kontrol flyder gennem den globale økonomi, og hvordan koncentrationen af magt i hænderne på et chokerende lille antal aktører gør os alle sårbare. (Filmet på TEDxZurich.)
James B. Glattfelder - Complex systems theorist
James B. Glattfelder aims to give us a richer, data-driven understanding of the people and interactions that control our global economy. He does this not to push an ideology -- but with the hopes of making the world a better place. Full bio
James B. Glattfelder aims to give us a richer, data-driven understanding of the people and interactions that control our global economy. He does this not to push an ideology -- but with the hopes of making the world a better place. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
"When the crisis came,
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Da krisen kom blev
00:18
the serious limitations of existing economic
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alvorlige begrænsninger i den eksisterende økonomi
00:21
and financial models immediately became apparent."
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og finansielle model åbenbar.
00:26
"There is also a strong belief, which I share,
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"Der er en stærk tro på, som jeg deler,
00:31
that bad or oversimplistic and overconfident economics
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at dårlig eller oversimplificeret og hovmodig økonomisk lære
00:36
helped create the crisis."
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bidrog til at skabe krisen".
00:39
Now, you've probably all heard of similar criticism
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Nu har I sikkert hørt tilsvarende kritik
00:41
coming from people who are skeptical of capitalism.
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fra folk som er skeptiske overfor kapitalismen.
00:44
But this is different.
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Men dette er anderledes.
00:46
This is coming from the heart of finance.
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Dette kommer fra den finansielle sektors hjerte.
00:50
The first quote is from Jean-Claude Trichet
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Det første citat er fra Jean-Claude Trichet
00:53
when he was governor of the European Central Bank.
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som var chef for den Europæiske centralbank.
00:57
The second quote is from the head
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Det andet citat er fra chefen for
00:59
of the U.K. Financial Services Authority.
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det britiske finanstilsyn.
01:02
Are these people implying
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Antyder disse mennesker
01:04
that we don't understand the economic systems
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at vi ikke forstår det økonomiske system
01:07
that drive our modern societies?
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som driver vores moderne samfund?
01:10
It gets worse.
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Det bliver værre.
01:12
"We spend billions of dollars
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"Vi brugte milliarder af dollars
01:14
trying to understand the origins of the universe
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til at prøve at forstå universets opståen
01:17
while we still don't understand the conditions
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men vi forstår fortsat ikke forudsætningerne
01:21
for a stable society, a functioning economy, or peace."
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for et stabilt samfund, en fungerende økonomi eller fred."
01:30
What's happening here? How can this be possible?
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Hvad skete der lige der? Hvordan kan dette være muligt?
01:32
Do we really understand more about the fabric of reality
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Forstår vi virkeligt mere om den fysiske verdens struktur,
01:35
than we do about the fabric
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end vi forstår om strukturer,
01:37
which emerges from our human interactions?
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som opstår af vores menneskelige forbindelser?
01:40
Unfortunately, the answer is yes.
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Desværre er svaret ja.
01:43
But there's an intriguing solution which is coming
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Men der er en fascinerende løsning som kommer
01:46
from what is known as the science of complexity.
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fra hvad vi kalder videnskaben om kompleksitet.
01:51
To explain what this means and what this thing is,
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For at forklare hvad dette betyder og hvad den ting er,
01:53
please let me quickly take a couple of steps back.
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så lad mig tage et par skridt tilbage.
01:57
I ended up in physics by accident.
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Jeg blev fysiker ved et tilfælde.
01:59
It was a random encounter when I was young,
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Det var et tilfældigt sammenfald da jeg var ung
02:02
and since then, I've often wondered
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og siden har jeg ofte undret mig over
02:05
about the amazing success of physics
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den forbløffende succes fysikken har fået.
02:07
in describing the reality we wake up in every day.
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Den beskriver den virkelighed vi vågner op til hver dag.
02:11
In a nutshell, you can think of physics as follows.
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I en nøddeskal, fungere fysikken som følger:
02:14
So you take a chunk of reality you want to understand
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Du tager en bid af den virkelighed som du ønsker at forstå
02:17
and you translate it into mathematics.
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og du oversætter den til matematik.
02:21
You encode it into equations.
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Du omkoder den til ligninger.
02:25
Then predictions can be made and tested.
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Man kan så lave forudsigelser og teste dem.
02:28
We're actually really lucky that this works,
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Vi er faktisk rigtigt heldige med at det virker,
02:31
because no one really knows why the thoughts in our heads
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fordi ingen rigtigt ved hvorfor tankerne i
i vores hoveder
i vores hoveder
02:34
should actually relate to the fundamental workings of the universe.
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skulle kunne afspejle hvordan universet virker.
02:40
Despite the success, physics has its limits.
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På trods af succesen har fysikken sine grænser.
02:43
As Dirk Helbing pointed out in the last quote,
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Som Dirk Helbing påpegede i de forrige citat
02:46
we don't really understand the complexity
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så forstår vi ikke rigtigt kompleksiteten
02:48
that relates to us, that surrounds us.
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i vores omverden.
02:51
This paradox is what got me interested in complex systems.
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Dette paradoks fik mig interesseret i komplekse systemer.
02:56
So these are systems which are made up
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Disse systemer som består af
02:58
of many interconnected or interacting parts:
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mange forbundne eller interagerende parter:
03:02
swarms of birds or fish, ant colonies,
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Flokke af fugle eller fisk, myreboer,
03:05
ecosystems, brains, financial markets.
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økosystemer, hjerner, finansielle markeder.
03:09
These are just a few examples.
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Dette er bare nogle få eksempler.
03:13
Interestingly, complex systems are very hard to map
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Interessant nok, så er komplekse systemer meget svære at kortlægge
03:18
into mathematical equations,
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i matematiske ligninger,
03:20
so the usual physics approach doesn't really work here.
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så den sædvanlige fysik virker ikke rigtigt her.
03:25
So what do we know about complex systems?
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Så hvad ved vi om komplekse systemer?
03:27
Well, it turns out that what looks like complex behavior
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Ok, det viser sig at hvad der ligner kompleks adfærd
03:31
from the outside is actually the result
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udefra, faktisk er resultatet
03:34
of a few simple rules of interaction.
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af nogle få simple regler for interaktion.
03:38
This means you can forget about the equations
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Dette betyder af du kan glemme alt om ligninger
03:42
and just start to understand the system
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og bare starte med at forstå systemet,
03:44
by looking at the interactions,
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ved at kigge på interaktioner,
03:47
so you can actually forget about the equations
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så du kan faktisk glemme ligningerne
03:49
and you just start to look at the interactions.
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og bare starte med at kigge på interaktioner.
03:52
And it gets even better, because most complex systems
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Og det bliver endnu bedre, fordi de mest komplekse systemer
03:55
have this amazing property called emergence.
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har en forbløffende egenskab kaldet selvorganisering.
03:58
So this means that the system as a whole
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hvilket betyder at systemet som et hele
04:00
suddenly starts to show a behavior
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pludseligt viser en adfærd
04:02
which cannot be understood or predicted
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som ikke kan forstås eller forudsiges
04:05
by looking at the components of the system.
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ved at kigge på systemets komponenter.
04:08
So the whole is literally more than the sum of its parts.
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Så helheden er bogstaveligt talt mere end summen af det dele.
04:12
And all of this also means that you can forget about
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Dette betyder også at du kan glemme hvor
04:14
the individual parts of the system, how complex they are.
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komplekse de enkelte dele af systemet er.
04:19
So if it's a cell or a termite or a bird,
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Så hvis det er en celle eller en termit eller en fugl,
04:24
you just focus on the rules of interaction.
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så kan du nøjes med at fokuserer på reglerne for interaktionen
04:29
As a result, networks are ideal representations
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Som et resultat er netværk de ideelle repræsentationer
04:33
of complex systems.
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for komplekse systemer.
04:36
The nodes in the network
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Noderne i netværket
04:39
are the system's components
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er systemets komponenter
04:41
and the links are given by the interactions.
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og forbindelserne er givet ved interaktionerne.
04:45
So what equations are for physics,
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Så hvad ligninger er for fysikken,
04:48
complex networks are for the study of complex systems.
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er komplekse netværk for studiet af komplekse systemer.
04:53
This approach has been very successfully applied
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Denne tilgangsvinkel har været anvendt succesfuldt
04:56
to many complex systems in physics, biology,
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på mange komplekse systemer indenfor fysik, biologi,
04:59
computer science, the social sciences,
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datalogi, socialvidenskaberne,
05:03
but what about economics?
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med hvad med økonomi?
05:05
Where are economic networks?
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Hvor er de økonomiske netværk?
05:07
This is a surprising and prominent gap in the literature.
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Det er et overraskende stor hul i litteraturen.
05:12
The study we published last year called
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Det studie vi publicerede sidste år kaldet
05:15
"The Network of Global Corporate Control"
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"The Network of Global Corporate Control"
05:18
was the first extensive analysis of economic networks.
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var den første ekstensive analyse af økonomiske netværk.
05:24
The study went viral on the Internet
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Studiet spredte sig viralt på internettet
05:26
and it attracted a lot of attention from the international media.
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og tiltrak sig en masse opmærksomhed fra de internationale medier.
05:32
This is quite remarkable, because, again,
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Det er bemærkelsesværdigt, fordi, igen,
05:34
why did no one look at this before?
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hvorfor har ingen kigget på dette før?
05:36
Similar data has been around for quite some time.
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Tilsvarende data har været tilstede i en periode.
05:39
What we looked at in detail was ownership networks.
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Hvad vi kiggede på i detaljer var ejerskabsnetværk.
05:43
So here the nodes are companies, people, governments,
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Så her er noderne virksomheder, mennesker, regeringer,
05:48
foundations, etc.
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fonde osv.
05:52
And the links represent the shareholding relations,
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og forbindelserne repræsenterer aktieejerskab,
05:54
so Shareholder A has x percent of the shares in Company B.
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Så aktieejer A ejer x procent af aktierne i virksomhed B.
06:00
And we also assign a value to the company
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Vi gav en værdi til en virksomhed
06:02
given by the operating revenue.
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efter deres driftsindtægter.
06:05
So ownership networks reveal the patterns
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Så ejerskabsnetværk afslører mønstret
06:08
of shareholding relations.
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i aktieejerrelationerne.
06:11
In this little example, you can see
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I dette lille eksempel, kan du se
06:13
a few financial institutions
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nogle få finansielle institutioner
06:15
with some of the many links highlighted.
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med nogle af de mange forbindelser fremhævet.
06:19
Now you may think that no one's looked at this before
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Nu tænker I, at ingen har kigget på dette før,
06:22
because ownership networks are
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fordi ejerskabsnetværk er
06:24
really, really boring to study.
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virkeligt kedelige at studere.
06:27
Well, as ownership is related to control,
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Men, da ejerskab er koblet til kontrol,
06:31
as I shall explain later,
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som jeg skal forklare senere,
06:33
looking at ownership networks
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giver undersøgelse af ejerskabsnetværk
06:34
actually can give you answers to questions like,
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svar på spørgsmål som disse:
06:37
who are the key players?
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Hvem er hovedaktørerne?
06:39
How are they organized? Are they isolated?
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Hvordan er de organiseret? Er de isolerede?
06:41
Are they interconnected?
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Er de forbundne?
06:42
And what is the overall distribution of control?
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Og hvordan er den overordnede fordeling af magt?
06:46
In other words, who controls the world?
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Med andre ord: Hvem kontrollerer verden?
06:50
I think this is an interesting question.
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Jeg syntes at de er et interessant spørgsmål.
06:52
And it has implications for systemic risk.
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Og det har betydning for risici i systemet.
06:56
This is a measure of how vulnerable a system is overall.
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Dette er et mål for hvor sårbart systemet er.
07:01
A high degree of interconnectivity
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En høj grad af forbindelser
07:04
can be bad for stability,
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kan være dårligt for stabiliteten.
07:07
because then the stress can spread through the system
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Fordi en overbelastning kan sprede sig gennem systemet
07:10
like an epidemic.
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som en epidemi.
07:13
Scientists have sometimes criticized economists
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Videnskabsfolk har ofte kritiseret økonomerne,
07:16
who believe ideas and concepts
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som tror at ideer og koncepter
07:18
are more important than empirical data,
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er mere vigtige end empiriske data,
07:21
because a foundational guideline in science is:
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fordi en grundlæggende rettesnor for videnskab er:
07:25
Let the data speak. Okay. Let's do that.
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Lad data tale. Okay, lad dem tale.
07:28
So we started with a database containing
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Så vi startede med en database med
07:30
13 million ownership relations from 2007.
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13 millioner ejerskabsrelationer fra 2007.
07:35
This is a lot of data, and because we wanted to find out
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Det er en masse data, og fordi vi ønskede at finde ud af
07:37
who rules the world,
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hvem som regerer verden,
07:40
we decided to focus on transnational corporations,
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besluttede vi os for at have fokus på transnationale virksomheder,
07:44
or TNCs for short.
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forkortet TNC.
07:45
These are companies that operate in more than one country,
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Det er virksomheder der arbejder i mere end et land,
07:49
and we found 43,000.
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og vi fandt 43.000.
07:51
In the next step, we built the network around these companies,
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I det næste trin byggede vi netværk op omkring disse virksomheder,
07:55
so we took all the TNCs' shareholders,
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så vi tog alle TNC'ernes aktionærer,
07:58
and the shareholders' shareholders, etc.,
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og aktionærenes aktionærer osv.
08:00
all the way upstream, and we did the same downstream,
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hele vejen ned og hele vejen op,
08:03
and ended up with a network containing 600,000 nodes
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og vi endte med et netværk indeholdende 600.000 noder
08:07
and one million links.
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og en million forbindelser.
08:08
This is the TNC network which we analyzed.
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Dette er det TNC netværk som vi analyserede.
08:12
And it turns out to be structured as follows.
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Og det viste sig at være struktureret som følger.
08:15
So you have a periphery and a center
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Du har en udkant og et centrum
08:17
which contains about 75 percent of all the players,
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som indeholder omkring 75 % af alle aktører,
08:22
and in the center there's this tiny but dominant core
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og i centeret er der en lille med dominerende kerne
08:25
which is made up of highly interconnected companies.
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som består af tæt forbundne firmaer.
08:30
To give you a better picture,
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For at give jer et bedre billede,
08:33
think about a metropolitan area.
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forestil jer et storbyområde.
08:34
So you have the suburbs and the periphery,
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Så du har forstæderne og udkanten,
08:37
you have a center like a financial district,
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og I har et centrum med et finanscenter,
08:39
then the core will be something like
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hvor kerne vil være noget i retning af
08:41
the tallest high rise building in the center.
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den højeste bygning i centrum.
08:44
And we already see signs of organization going on here.
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Og vi ser allerede tegn på den organisering der finder sted.
08:49
Thirty-six percent of the TNCs are in the core only,
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36 % af TNC'erne findes i kernen,
08:55
but they make up 95 percent of the total operating revenue
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men de udgør op til 95 % af den totale fortjeneste
08:59
of all TNCs.
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for alle TNC'er.
09:02
Okay, so now we analyzed the structure,
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Okay, nu har vi analyseret strukturen,
09:05
so how does this relate to the control?
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så hvordan hænger den sammen med kontrol?
09:08
Well, ownership gives voting rights to shareholders.
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Ejerskab giver stemmerettigheder til aktionærerne.
09:12
This is the normal notion of control.
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Dette er den normale opfattelse af kontrol.
09:15
And there are different models which allow you to compute
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Og der er forskellige modeller som tillader dig at beregne
09:18
the control you get from ownership.
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hvor meget kontrol du får for ejerskab.
09:21
If you have more than 50 percent of the shares in a company,
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Hvis du har mere end 50 % af aktierne i et firma,
09:24
you get control,
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har du kontrol,
09:25
but usually it depends on the relative distribution of shares.
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men normalt afhænger det af den relative fordeling af aktier.
09:31
And the network really matters.
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Og netværket betyder noget.
09:33
About 10 years ago, Mr. Tronchetti Provera
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For omkring 10 år siden, ejede og kontrollerede
09:36
had ownership and control in a small company,
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Mr Tronchetti Proveraet lille firma,
09:39
which had ownership and control in a bigger company.
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som havde ejerskab og kontrol over et større firma.
09:43
You get the idea.
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I fanger ideen.
09:44
This ended up giving him control in Telecom Italia
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Dette endte med at give ham kontrollen over Telecom Italia
09:48
with a leverage of 26.
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med en gearing på 26.
09:51
So this means that, with each euro he invested,
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Så dette betyder at for hver euro han investerede
09:55
he was able to move 26 euros of market value
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kunne han påvirke 26 euro af markedsværdi
09:59
through the chain of ownership relations.
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gennem kæden af ejerskabsrelationer.
10:02
Now what we actually computed in our study
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Hvad vi rent faktisk beregnede i vores projekt
10:05
was the control over the TNCs' value.
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var kontrollen over TNC'ernes værdier.
10:09
This allowed us to assign a degree of influence
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Dette tillod os at tildele graden af indflydelse
10:12
to each shareholder.
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til hver aktionær.
10:14
This is very much in the sense of
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Dette er meget i tråd med
10:17
Max Weber's idea of potential power,
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Max Webers ide om potentiel magt,
10:20
which is the probability of imposing one's own will
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som er sandsynligheden af at gennemfører ens egen vilje
10:24
despite the opposition of others.
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på trods af modstands fra andre.
10:28
If you want to compute the flow in an ownership network,
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Hvis du ønsker at beregne indflydelsen i et ejerskabsnetværk,
10:32
this is what you have to do.
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så er det hvad du må gøre.
10:34
It's actually not that hard to understand.
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Det er faktisk ikke svært at forstå.
10:36
Let me explain by giving you this analogy.
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Lad mig forklare med at give jer en sammenligning.
10:39
So think about water flowing in pipes
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Forstil jer vand som flyder i rør
10:42
where the pipes have different thickness.
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hvor rørene har forskellig tykkelse.
10:45
So similarly, the control is flowing in the ownership networks
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På samme vis flyder magt i et ejerskabsnetværk
10:50
and is accumulating at the nodes.
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og det bliver opsamlet i noderne.
10:54
So what did we find after computing all this network control?
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Så hvad fandt vi efter at have beregnet dette magtnetværk?
10:58
Well, it turns out that the 737 top shareholders
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Det viste sig at de 737 mest magtfulde aktionærer
11:03
have the potential to collectively control
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havde muligheden for kollektivt at kontrollere
11:06
80 percent of the TNCs' value.
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80 % af TNC'ernes værdi.
11:11
Now remember, we started out with 600,000 nodes,
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Husk at vi startede med 600.000 noder,
11:14
so these 737 top players
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så disse 737 top aktører
11:18
make up a bit more than 0.1 percent.
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udgør kun lidt mere end 0,1 %.
11:21
They're mostly financial institutions in the U.S. and the U.K.
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Det er hovedsagligt finansielle institutioner i USA og UK.
11:26
And it gets even more extreme.
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Og det bliver endnu mere ekstremt.
11:29
There are 146 top players in the core,
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Der er 146 top aktører i kernen,
11:33
and they together have the potential to collectively control
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og de har den potentielle magt til kollektivt
11:37
40 percent of the TNCs' value.
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at kontrollere 40 % af TNC'ernes værdi.
11:43
What should you take home from all of this?
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Så hvad kan du udlede at alt dette?
11:46
Well, the high degree of control you saw
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Den grad af kontrol du har set
11:49
is very extreme by any standard.
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er meget ekstrem ud fra enhver standard.
11:54
The high degree of interconnectivity
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Den meget høje grad af indbyrdes forbindelser
11:57
of the top players in the core
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mellem topaktørerne i kernen
11:59
could pose a significant systemic risk to the global economy
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kan udgøre en signifikant systematisk risiko for den globale økonomi.
12:04
and we could easily reproduce the TNC network
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Da vi nemt kunne reproducerer TNC-netværket
12:08
with a few simple rules.
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med nogle få simple regler.
12:10
This means that its structure is probably the result
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Det betyder at systemet sandsynligvis er resultat
12:12
of self-organization.
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af selvorganisering.
12:14
It's an emergent property which depends
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Det er en indbygget egenskab som afhænger
12:17
on the rules of interaction in the system,
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af reglerne for interaktion i systemet,
12:20
so it's probably not the result of a top-down approach
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så det er ikke resultatet af en oppefra-ned strategi
12:24
like a global conspiracy.
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som en global konspiration.
12:27
Our study "is an impression of the moon's surface.
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Vores studie er "et billede af månens overflade.
12:30
It's not a street map."
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Ikke et bykort."
12:31
So you should take the exact numbers in our study
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Så du skal tage de eksakte tal i vores studie
12:34
with a grain of salt,
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med et gran salt,
12:35
yet it "gave us a tantalizing glimpse
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dog gav det os smugkig
12:39
of a brave new world of finance."
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ind i "den fagre nye finansverden."
12:43
We hope to have opened the door for more such research in this direction,
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Vi håber at vi har åbnet dørene for mere af den slags forskning
12:47
so the remaining unknown terrain will be charted in the future.
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så de uopdagede områder vil blive kortlagt i fremtiden.
12:52
And this is slowly starting.
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Og det så småt på vej.
12:54
We're seeing the emergence of long-term
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Vi ser fremkomsten af langsigtede
12:57
and highly-funded programs which aim at understanding
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og velfinansierede forskningsprogrammer, med formålet at forstå
13:00
our networked world from a complexity point of view.
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vores netværksforbundne verden fra et kompleksitetssynspunkt.
13:05
But this journey has only just begun,
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Men denne rejser kun lige begyndt.
13:07
so we will have to wait before we see the first results.
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Så vi må stadig vente for at se de første resultater.
13:12
Now there is still a big problem, in my opinion.
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Men der er stadigvæk et stort problem, efter min mening.
13:16
Ideas relating to finance, economics, politics,
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Ideer med relation til finans, økonomi, politik,
13:21
society, are very often tainted
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samfund, er ofte farvede
13:24
by people's personal ideologies.
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af personernes personlige ideologier.
13:28
I really hope that this complexity perspective
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Jeg håber at dette kompleksitetsperspektiv
13:32
allows for some common ground to be found.
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tilalder at der findes et fælles udgangspunkt.
13:38
It would be really great if it has the power
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Det vil være fantastisk hvis det har evnen
13:40
to help end the gridlock created by conflicting ideas,
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til at slutte denne hårdknude af konfliktende ideer,
13:46
which appears to be paralyzing our globalized world.
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som tilsyneladende har lammet vores globaliserede verden.
13:51
Reality is so complex, we need to move away from dogma.
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Virkeligheden er så kompleks, at vi må forkaste dogmer.
13:55
But this is just my own personal ideology.
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Men det er bare min personlige ideologi.
13:58
Thank you.
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Mange tak.
14:00
(Applause)
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(Bifald)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
James B. Glattfelder - Complex systems theoristJames B. Glattfelder aims to give us a richer, data-driven understanding of the people and interactions that control our global economy. He does this not to push an ideology -- but with the hopes of making the world a better place.
Why you should listen
First a physicist and then a researcher at a Swiss hedge fund, James B. Glattfelder found himself amazed by the level of understanding we have in regards to the physical world and universe around us. He wondered: how can we move toward a similar understanding of human society?
This question led him to the study of complex systems, a subject he now holds a Ph.D in from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology. Glattfelder is co-head of quantitative research at Olsen Ltd in Zurich, an FX investment manager focusing on market-stabilizing algorithms. In 2011, he co-authored the study “The Network of Global Corporate Control,” which went viral in the international media and sparked many controversial discussions. The study looked at the architecture of ownership across the globe, and computed a level of control exerted by each international player. The study revealed that less than 1% of all the players in the global economy are part of a highly interconnected and powerful core which, because of the high levels of overlap, leaves the economy vulnerable.
In his free time, Glattfelder enjoys snowboarding, rock climbing, surfing and listening to electronic music.
James B. Glattfelder | Speaker | TED.com