TED2009
Ray Kurzweil: A university for the coming singularity
Ray Kurzweil: Et universitet for den kommende singularitet.
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Ray Kurzweils seneste grafer viser at teknologiens halsbrækkende fremskridt vil accelerere -- recession eller ej. Han afslører sit nyeste projekt, Singularitets Universitetet, som skal forske i de kommende teknologier og lede dem mod menneskets gavn.
Ray Kurzweil - Inventor, futurist
Ray Kurzweil is an engineer who has radically advanced the fields of speech, text and audio technology. He's revered for his dizzying -- yet convincing -- writing on the advance of technology, the limits of biology and the future of the human species. Full bio
Ray Kurzweil is an engineer who has radically advanced the fields of speech, text and audio technology. He's revered for his dizzying -- yet convincing -- writing on the advance of technology, the limits of biology and the future of the human species. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
Information technology grows in an exponential manner.
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Informationsteknologien vokser eksponentielt.
00:16
It's not linear. And our intuition is linear.
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Den er ikke lineær, men vores intuition er lineær.
00:20
When we walked through the savanna a thousand years ago
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Da vi vandrede på savannen for tusind år siden
00:22
we made linear predictions where that animal would be,
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lavede vi lineære forudsigelser om hvor dyret ville være.
00:24
and that worked fine. It's hardwired in our brains.
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Og det virkede fint. Det er indbygget i vores hjerner.
00:27
But the pace of exponential growth
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Men hastigheden for eksponentiel vækst
00:30
is really what describes information technologies.
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beskriver i virkeligheden informationsteknologien.
00:33
And it's not just computation.
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Og det er ikke kun beregninger.
00:36
There is a big difference between linear and exponential growth.
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Der er en stor forskel på lineær og eksponentiel vækst.
00:38
If I take 30 steps linearly -- one, two, three, four, five --
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Hvis jeg rykker 30 trin lineært, et, to, tre, fire fem,
00:42
I get to 30.
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så kommer jeg til 30
00:44
If I take 30 steps exponentially -- two, four, eight, 16 --
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Hvis jeg rykker 30 trin eksponentielt, to, fire, otte, 16,
00:47
I get to a billion.
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får jeg en milliard.
00:49
It makes a huge difference.
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Det gør en kæmpe forskel.
00:51
And that really describes information technology.
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Det beskriver faktisk informationsteknologi.
00:53
When I was a student at MIT,
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Da jeg var student på MIT
00:55
we all shared one computer that took up a whole building.
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delte vi alle én computer, som fyldte en hel bygning.
00:57
The computer in your cellphone today is a million times cheaper,
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Computeren i jeres mobiltelefoner idag, er en million gange billigere,
01:00
a million times smaller,
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en million gange mindre,
01:02
a thousand times more powerful.
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tusing gange mere kraftfuld.
01:04
That's a billion-fold increase in capability per dollar
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Det er en milliard gang stigning i kapacitet per dollar,
01:07
that we've actually experienced since I was a student.
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som vi har oplevet siden jeg var studerende..
01:09
And we're going to do it again in the next 25 years.
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Og vi vil opleve det igen over de næste 25 år.
01:12
Information technology progresses
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Informationsteknologi skrider frem
01:14
through a series of S-curves
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gennem en serie af S-kurver
01:16
where each one is a different paradigm.
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hvor hver enkelt af dem er et nyt paradigme.
01:18
So people say, "What's going to happen when Moore's Law comes to an end?"
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Folk spørger. "Hvad sker der når Moore's Lov stopper?"
01:21
Which will happen around 2020.
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Hvilket vil ske omkring 2020.
01:23
We'll then go to the next paradigm.
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Så vil vi gå videre til den næste paradigme.
01:25
And Moore's Law was not the first paradigm
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Og Moore's Lov var ikke det første paradigme
01:27
to bring exponential growth to computing.
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der bragte eksponentiel vækst til computere.
01:29
The exponential growth of computing started
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Den eksponentielle vækst indenfor computere startede
01:31
decades before Gordon Moore was even born.
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årtier før Gordon Moore blev født.
01:33
And it doesn't just apply to computation.
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Og den gælder ikke kun for computere.
01:37
It's really any technology where we can measure
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Det er faktisk for alle teknologier hvor vi kan måle
01:39
the underlying information properties.
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de underliggende egenskaber for informationen.
01:42
Here we have 49 famous computers. I put them in a logarithmic graph.
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Her har vi 49 berømte computere. Jeg har sat dem på en logaritmisk graf.
01:46
The logarithmic scale hides the scale of the increase,
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Den logaritmiske skala skjuler størrelsen på stigningen.
01:50
because this represents trillions-fold increase
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For dette repræsenterer en billion gange stigning
01:52
since the 1890 census.
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siden folkeoptællingen i 1890.
01:55
In 1950s they were shrinking vacuum tubes,
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I 1950'erne gjorde de vacuumrør mindre,
01:57
making them smaller and smaller. They finally hit a wall;
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og lavede dem mindre og mindre. Til sidste ramte de en mur.
02:00
they couldn't shrink the vacuum tube any more and keep the vacuum.
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De kunne ikke lave vacuumrørene mindre og samtidig holde på vacuumen.
02:02
And that was the end of the shrinking of vacuum tubes,
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Og det var afslutningen på at gøre vacuumrørene mindre.
02:05
but it was not the end of the exponential growth of computing.
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Men det var ikke afslutningen på den eksponentielle vækst af computere.
02:08
We went to the fourth paradigm, transistors,
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Vi gik til det fjerde paradigme, transistorer.
02:10
and finally integrated circuits.
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Og til sidst til integrerede kredsløb.
02:12
When that comes to an end we'll go to the sixth paradigm;
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Når det kommer til en afslutning, vi vir fortsætte med det sjette pradigme,
02:14
three-dimensional self-organizing molecular circuits.
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tredimensionelle selv-arrangerende molekylære kredsløb.
02:18
But what's even more amazing, really, than this
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Men det, der er endnu mere forunderligt, end denne
02:21
fantastic scale of progress,
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fantastiske skala for fremskridtet,
02:23
is that -- look at how predictable this is.
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er at se hvor forudsigeligt det er.
02:25
I mean this went through thick and thin,
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Jeg mener, dette gik gennem tykt og tyndt,
02:27
through war and peace, through boom times and recessions.
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gennem krig og fred, gennem opture og nedture.
02:30
The Great Depression made not a dent in this exponential progression.
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Den Store Depression lavede ikke engang en bule i dette eksponentielle fremskridt.
02:34
We'll see the same thing in the economic recession we're having now.
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Vi vil se det samme for den økonomiske recession vi har nu.
02:38
At least the exponential growth of information technology capability
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Som minimum vil den eksponentielle vækst i informationsteknologiske muligheder
02:41
will continue unabated.
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fortsætte uhindret.
02:44
And I just updated these graphs.
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Jeg har lige opdateret disse grafer.
02:46
Because I had them through 2002 in my book, "The Singularity is Near."
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For jeg havde dem til og med 2002 i min bog, Singulariteten Er Tæt På.
02:49
So we updated them,
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Så vi opdaterede dem
02:51
so I could present it here, to 2007.
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så jeg kunne fremvise dem her, op til 2007.
02:54
And I was asked, "Well aren't you nervous?
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Jeg blev spurgt, "Nå men, er du ikke nervøs?
02:56
Maybe it kind of didn't stay on this exponential progression."
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Måske fortsætter den eksponentielle vækst ikke."
03:00
I was a little nervous
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Jeg var lidt nervøs.
03:02
because maybe the data wouldn't be right,
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For måske ville mine data ikke være rigtige.
03:04
but I've done this now for 30 years,
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Men jeg har nu gjort det her i 30 år.
03:06
and it has stayed on this exponential progression.
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Og den er fortsat med den eksponentielle vækst.
03:09
Look at this graph here.You could buy one transistor for a dollar in 1968.
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Se grafen her. I kunne købe én transistor for en dollar i 1969.
03:12
You can buy half a billion today,
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I kan købe en halv milliard i dag.
03:14
and they are actually better, because they are faster.
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Og de er faktisk bedre, for de er hurtigere.
03:16
But look at how predictable this is.
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Se hvor forudsigeligt det er.
03:18
And I'd say this knowledge is over-fitting to past data.
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Jeg vil sige at denne viden passer med tidligere tiders data.
03:21
I've been making these forward-looking predictions for about 30 years.
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Jeg har lavet disse fremskrivende forudsigelser i omkring 30 år.
03:25
And the cost of a transistor cycle,
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Og prisen på en transister cycle,
03:27
which is a measure of the price performance of electronics,
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som er et mål for pris-præstationen for elektronik,
03:29
comes down about every year.
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falder næsten hvert år.
03:31
That's a 50 percent deflation rate.
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Det er en 50 procents deflationsrate.
03:33
And it's also true of other examples,
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Og det gælder også for andre eksempler
03:35
like DNA data or brain data.
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som DNA data eller hjerne data.
03:37
But we more than make up for that.
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Men vi mere end kompenserede for det.
03:39
We actually ship more than twice as much
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Vi producerer mere end dobbelt så meget
03:41
of every form of information technology.
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af alle former for informationsteknologi.
03:43
We've had 18 percent growth in constant dollars
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Vi havde en vækst på 18 procent i indekserede dollars
03:46
in every form of information technology for the last half-century,
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for alle former for informations teknologi i det sidste halve århundrede.
03:49
despite the fact that you can get twice as much of it each year.
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På trods af at I kan få dobbelt så meget af det hvert år.
03:53
This is a completely different example.
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Dette er et helt andet eksempel.
03:55
This is not Moore's Law.
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Dette er ikke Moore's Lov.
03:57
The amount of DNA data
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Mængden af DNA data
03:59
we've sequenced has doubled every year.
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vi har sekventeret er fordoblet hvert år.
04:01
The cost has come down by half every year.
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Prisen er faldet med halvdelen hvert år.
04:04
And this has been a smooth progression
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Og det har været en glidende fremgang
04:06
since the beginning of the genome project.
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siden begyndelsen af genom projektet.
04:08
And halfway through the project, skeptics said,
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Og halvvejs gennem projektet sagde skeptikerne,
04:10
"Well, this is not working out. You're halfway through the genome project
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"Det her fungerer ikke. I er halvvejs igennem genom projektet,
04:13
and you've finished one percent of the project."
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og I har kun afsluttet en procent af projektet."
04:15
But that was really right on schedule.
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Men det var faktisk lige efter planen.
04:17
Because if you double one percent seven more times,
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For hvis du fordobler en procent syv gange,
04:19
which is exactly what happened,
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som er præcis hvad der skete,
04:21
you get 100 percent. And the project was finished on time.
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så får du 100 procent. Og projektet sluttede til tiden.
04:24
Communication technologies:
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Kommunikationsteknologier:
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50 different ways to measure this,
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Der er 50 forskellige måder at måle det på.
04:28
the number of bits being moved around, the size of the Internet.
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Antallet af bit, der flyttes rundt, størrelsen på internettet.
04:31
But this has progressed at an exponential pace.
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Men det er fremskredet i eksponentiel hastighed.
04:33
This is deeply democratizing.
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Det er dybt demokratiserende.
04:35
I wrote, over 20 years ago in "The Age of Intelligent Machines,"
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Jeg skrev for over 20 år siden i Tiden af Intelligente Maskiner,
04:38
when the Soviet Union was going strong, that it would be swept away
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da Sovjetunionen stadig var stærk, at den ville blive skyllet bort
04:41
by this growth of decentralized communication.
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af væksten i decentraliseret kommunikation.
04:45
And we will have plenty of computation as we go through the 21st century
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Og at vi vil have masser af regnekraft når vi går igennem det 21. århundrede
04:48
to do things like simulate regions of the human brain.
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til at gøre ting som at simulere regioner i den menneskelige hjerne.
04:52
But where will we get the software?
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Men hvor får vi softwaren fra?
04:54
Some critics say, "Oh, well software is stuck in the mud."
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Nogle kritikere siger "Men softwaren hænger fast i dyndet."
04:57
But we are learning more and more about the human brain.
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Men vi lærer mere og mere om menneskets hjerne.
04:59
Spatial resolution of brain scanning is doubling every year.
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Den rummelige opløsning ved hjerneskanninger fordobles hvert år.
05:02
The amount of data we're getting about the brain is doubling every year.
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Mængden af data vi samler om hjernen fordobles hvert år.
05:05
And we're showing that we can actually turn this data
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Og vi viser at vi faktisk kan bruge de data
05:08
into working models and simulations of brain regions.
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i brugbare modeller og simuleringer af regioner i hjernen.
05:11
There is about 20 regions of the brain that have been modeled,
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Der er omkring 20 regioner i hjernen, der er modelleret,
05:13
simulated and tested:
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simuleret og testet:
05:15
the auditory cortex, regions of the visual cortex;
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hørecentret og dele af synscentret,
05:18
cerebellum, where we do our skill formation;
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lillehjernen, hvor vores evner dannes,
05:20
slices of the cerebral cortex, where we do our rational thinking.
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dele af hjernebarken, hvor vi laver vores rationelle tænkning.
05:24
And all of this has fueled
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Og alt det har drevet
05:26
an increase, very smooth and predictable, of productivity.
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og forøget produktiviteten meget glidende og forudsigeligt.
05:29
We've gone from 30 dollars to 130 dollars
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Vi er gået fra 30 dollars til 130 dollars
05:31
in constant dollars in the value of an average hour of human labor,
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i indekserede dollars for værdien af en gennemsnitlige time af menneskelig arbejde,
05:35
fueled by this information technology.
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drevet af denne informationsteknologi.
05:38
And we're all concerned about energy and the environment.
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Vi er alle bekymrede om energi og om mijøet.
05:41
Well this is a logarithmic graph.
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Her er en logaritmisk graf.
05:43
This represents a smooth doubling,
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Den viser en glat fordobling,
05:45
every two years, of the amount of solar energy we're creating,
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hvert andet år i mængden af solenergi vi producerer.
05:49
particularly as we're now applying nanotechnology,
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I særdeleshed når vi nu anvender nanoteknologi,
05:51
a form of information technology, to solar panels.
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en form for informationsteknologi, på solpanelerne.
05:54
And we're only eight doublings away
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Og vi er kun otte fordoblinger væk
05:56
from it meeting 100 percent of our energy needs.
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fra at opnå 100 procent af vores energibehov.
05:58
And there is 10 thousand times more sunlight than we need.
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Og der er ti tusind gange mere sollys end vi har brug for.
06:02
We ultimately will merge with this technology. It's already very close to us.
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Vi vil i sidste ende smelte sammen med denne teknologi. Det er allerede meget tæt på os.
06:07
When I was a student it was across campus, now it's in our pockets.
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Da jeg studerede var det i den anden ende af universitetet. Nu passer den i en lomme.
06:10
What used to take up a building now fits in our pockets.
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Det, der tidligere fyldte en bygning, passer nu i en lomme.
06:13
What now fits in our pockets would fit in a blood cell in 25 years.
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Det, der nu passer i en lomme vil om 25 år kunne være en i en blodcelle.
06:16
And we will begin to actually deeply influence
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Og vi vil faktisk begynde på at have indflydelse
06:20
our health and our intelligence,
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på vores helbred og intelligens,
06:22
as we get closer and closer to this technology.
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når vi kommer tættere og tættere på denne teknologi.
06:26
Based on that we are announcing, here at TED,
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Baseret på det vi annoncerede her på TED,
06:29
in true TED tradition, Singularity University.
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i en sand TED tradition, Singularitets Universitetet.
06:32
It's a new university
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Det er et nyt universitet
06:34
that's founded by Peter Diamandis, who is here in the audience,
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som er grundlagt af Peter Diamandis, som er blandt publikum,
06:36
and myself.
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og mig selv.
06:38
It's backed by NASA and Google,
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Det er støttet af NASA og Google,
06:40
and other leaders in the high-tech and science community.
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og andre førende indenfor de højteknologiske og videnskabelige samfund.
06:44
And our goal was to assemble the leaders,
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Vores mål var at samle lederne,
06:47
both teachers and students,
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både lærere og studerende,
06:49
in these exponentially growing information technologies,
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i disse eksponentielt voksende informationsteknologier,
06:51
and their application.
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og deres virkemåde.
06:53
But Larry Page made an impassioned speech
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Men Larry Page gav en lidenskabelig tale
06:55
at our organizing meeting,
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på vores konstituerende møde
06:57
saying we should devote this study
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hvor han sagde at vi burde hengive studiet
07:02
to actually addressing some of the major challenges facing humanity.
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til at adressere nogen af de store udfordringer for menneskeheden.
07:06
And if we did that, then Google would back this.
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Og hvis vi gjorde det, ville Google støtte det.
07:08
And so that's what we've done.
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Så det er hvad vi har gjort.
07:10
The last third of the nine-week intensive summer session
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Den sidste tredjedel af de ni ugers intensiv sommerundervisning
07:14
will be devoted to a group project to address
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vil blive givet til et gruppeprojekt, der skal se på
07:16
some major challenge of humanity.
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nogen af de store udfordringer for menneskeheden.
07:18
Like for example, applying the Internet,
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Som for eksempel at tage internettet i brug,
07:20
which is now ubiquitous, in the rural areas of China or in Africa,
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som nu er en integreret del af de landlige områder i Kina og Afrika,
07:25
to bringing health information
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til at give sundhedsinformationer
07:27
to developing areas of the world.
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til verdens udviklingslande.
07:30
And these projects will continue past these sessions,
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Projekterne vil fortsætte udover undervisningen,
07:33
using collaborative interactive communication.
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ved at bruge kollaborativ interaktiv kommunikation.
07:36
All the intellectual property that is created and taught
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Al den intellektuelle ejendom, der bliver skabt og undervist i,
07:40
will be online and available,
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blive blive lagt online og blive tilgængelig,
07:42
and developed online in a collaborative fashion.
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og videreudviklet online på kollaborativ vis.
07:45
Here is our founding meeting.
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Her er vores konstituerende møde.
07:47
But this is being announced today.
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Dette bliver bekendtgjort i dag.
07:49
It will be permanently headquartered in Silicon Valley,
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Det vil få permanent hovedkvarter i Silicon Valley,
07:52
at the NASA Ames research center.
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på NASA Ames forskningscentret.
07:54
There are different programs for graduate students,
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Der er forskellige linier for kandidatstuderende
07:56
for executives at different companies.
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og for lederne af forskellige virksomheder.
07:59
The first six tracks here -- artificial intelligence,
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De første seks spor er her, kunstig intelligens,
08:01
advanced computing technologies, biotechnology, nanotechnology --
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avanceret beregnings teknologier, bioteknologi, nanoteknologi
08:04
are the different core areas of information technology.
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er de forskellige kerneområder indenfor informationsteknologi.
08:08
Then we are going to apply them to the other areas,
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Derefter vil vi anvende dem på andre områder
08:10
like energy, ecology,
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som energi, økologi,
08:13
policy law and ethics, entrepreneurship,
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politik, lovgivning og etik og iværksætteri,
08:15
so that people can bring these new technologies to the world.
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så folk kan bringe disse nye teknologier ud i verden.
08:19
So we're very appreciative of the support we've gotten
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Vi er meget taknemmelige for den støtte vi har fået
08:24
from both the intellectual leaders, the high-tech leaders,
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fra både intellektuelle ledere, højteknologiske ledere,
08:26
particularly Google and NASA.
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specielt Google og NASA.
08:28
This is an exciting new venture.
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Det er et spændende nyt projekt.
08:30
And we invite you to participate. Thank you very much.
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Og vi inviterer jer til at deltage. Mange tak.
08:33
(Applause)
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(Klapsalver)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ray Kurzweil - Inventor, futuristRay Kurzweil is an engineer who has radically advanced the fields of speech, text and audio technology. He's revered for his dizzying -- yet convincing -- writing on the advance of technology, the limits of biology and the future of the human species.
Why you should listen
Inventor, entrepreneur, visionary, Ray Kurzweil's accomplishments read as a startling series of firsts -- a litany of technological breakthroughs we've come to take for granted. Kurzweil invented the first optical character recognition (OCR) software for transforming the written word into data, the first print-to-speech software for the blind, the first text-to-speech synthesizer, and the first music synthesizer capable of recreating the grand piano and other orchestral instruments, and the first commercially marketed large-vocabulary speech recognition.
Yet his impact as a futurist and philosopher is no less significant. In his best-selling books, which include How to Create a Mind, The Age of Spiritual Machines, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Kurzweil depicts in detail a portrait of the human condition over the next few decades, as accelerating technologies forever blur the line between human and machine.
In 2009, he unveiled Singularity University, an institution that aims to "assemble, educate and inspire leaders who strive to understand and facilitate the development of exponentially advancing technologies." He is a Director of Engineering at Google, where he heads up a team developing machine intelligence and natural language comprehension.
Ray Kurzweil | Speaker | TED.com