TED2009
Ray Kurzweil: A university for the coming singularity
Ray Kurzweil: Sveučilište za nadolazeću singularnost
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Ray Kurzweilovi najnoviji grafovi pokazuju da će vratolomna unapređenja tehnologije samo ubrzavati -- bilo recesije ili ne. Otkriva svoj novi projekt, Sveučilište Singularnosti, za studiranje nadolazećih tehnologija i njihovo usmjeravanje za dobrobit čovječanstva.
Ray Kurzweil - Inventor, futurist
Ray Kurzweil is an engineer who has radically advanced the fields of speech, text and audio technology. He's revered for his dizzying -- yet convincing -- writing on the advance of technology, the limits of biology and the future of the human species. Full bio
Ray Kurzweil is an engineer who has radically advanced the fields of speech, text and audio technology. He's revered for his dizzying -- yet convincing -- writing on the advance of technology, the limits of biology and the future of the human species. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
Information technology grows in an exponential manner.
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Infomacijske tehnologije rastu eksponencijalno.
00:16
It's not linear. And our intuition is linear.
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Ne rastu linearno. Naša intuicija je linearna.
00:20
When we walked through the savanna a thousand years ago
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Hodajući savanom prije tisuću godina
00:22
we made linear predictions where that animal would be,
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stvarali smo linearna predviđanja gdje bi neka životinja mogla biti.
00:24
and that worked fine. It's hardwired in our brains.
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I to je radilo dobro. Ugrađeno nam je u mozgove.
00:27
But the pace of exponential growth
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Ali brzina eksponencijalnog rasta
00:30
is really what describes information technologies.
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je ono što zapravo opisuje informacijske tehnologije.
00:33
And it's not just computation.
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A ne radi se samo o računanju.
00:36
There is a big difference between linear and exponential growth.
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Postoji velika razlika između linearnog i eksponencijalnog rasta.
00:38
If I take 30 steps linearly -- one, two, three, four, five --
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Ako napravim 30 koraka linearno, jedan, dva, tri, četiri, pet,
00:42
I get to 30.
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dođem do 30.
00:44
If I take 30 steps exponentially -- two, four, eight, 16 --
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Ako napravim 30 koraka eksponencijalno, dva, četiri, osam, 16,
00:47
I get to a billion.
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dođem do milijardu.
00:49
It makes a huge difference.
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To čini ogromnu razliku.
00:51
And that really describes information technology.
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I to zapravo opisuje informacijsku tehnologiju.
00:53
When I was a student at MIT,
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Kad sam bio student na MIT-u
00:55
we all shared one computer that took up a whole building.
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svi smo dijelili jedno računalo koje je zauzimalo čitavu zgradu.
00:57
The computer in your cellphone today is a million times cheaper,
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Računalo u vašem mobitelu danas je milijun puta jeftinije,
01:00
a million times smaller,
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milijun puta manje,
01:02
a thousand times more powerful.
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tisuću puta moćnije.
01:04
That's a billion-fold increase in capability per dollar
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To je povećanje snage po dolaru za milijardu
01:07
that we've actually experienced since I was a student.
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koje smo iskusili od vremena kad sam ja bio student.
01:09
And we're going to do it again in the next 25 years.
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I učinit ćemo to ponovo u narednih 25 godina.
01:12
Information technology progresses
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Informacijska tehnologija napreduje
01:14
through a series of S-curves
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kroz niz S-krivulja
01:16
where each one is a different paradigm.
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gdje je svaka od njih drugačija paradigma.
01:18
So people say, "What's going to happen when Moore's Law comes to an end?"
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Ljudi se pitaju, "Što će se dogoditi kada Moorov zakon dođe do svog kraja?"
01:21
Which will happen around 2020.
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A dogoditi će se oko 2020. godine.
01:23
We'll then go to the next paradigm.
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Tada ćemo prijeći na sljedeću paradigmu.
01:25
And Moore's Law was not the first paradigm
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Moorov zakon nije bio prva paradigma
01:27
to bring exponential growth to computing.
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koja je donijela eksponencijalni rast računarstva.
01:29
The exponential growth of computing started
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Eksponencijalni rast računarstva počeo je
01:31
decades before Gordon Moore was even born.
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desetljećima prije nego se Gordon Moore uopće rodio.
01:33
And it doesn't just apply to computation.
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A to se ne odnosi samo na računarstvo.
01:37
It's really any technology where we can measure
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To je zapravo bilo koja tehnologija u kojoj možemo mjeriti
01:39
the underlying information properties.
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ishodišna svojstva informacija.
01:42
Here we have 49 famous computers. I put them in a logarithmic graph.
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Ovdje imamo 49 poznatih računala. Stavio sam ih u logaritamski grafikon.
01:46
The logarithmic scale hides the scale of the increase,
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Logaritamsko mjerilo skriva pravi razmjer povećanja.
01:50
because this represents trillions-fold increase
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Zato što ovo prikazuje povećanje za faktor od trilijun
01:52
since the 1890 census.
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od 1890. godine.
01:55
In 1950s they were shrinking vacuum tubes,
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1950-tih godina smanjivali su vakumske cijevi,
01:57
making them smaller and smaller. They finally hit a wall;
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čineći ih sve manjima. Tada su naposljetku stali pred zid.
02:00
they couldn't shrink the vacuum tube any more and keep the vacuum.
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Nisu više mogli smanjiti vakumsku cijev i zadržati vakuum.
02:02
And that was the end of the shrinking of vacuum tubes,
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I bio je to kraj smanjivanja vakumskih cijevi.
02:05
but it was not the end of the exponential growth of computing.
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Ali to nije bio kraj eksponencijalnog rasta računarstva.
02:08
We went to the fourth paradigm, transistors,
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Prešli smo na četvrtu paradigmu, tranzistore
02:10
and finally integrated circuits.
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te naposljetku na integrirane krugove.
02:12
When that comes to an end we'll go to the sixth paradigm;
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Kad to dođe do kraja prijeći ćemo na šestu paradigmu,
02:14
three-dimensional self-organizing molecular circuits.
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trodimenzionalne samoorganizirajuće molekularne krugove.
02:18
But what's even more amazing, really, than this
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Ali, ono što je još više zadivljujuće od
02:21
fantastic scale of progress,
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ovog fantastičnog napretka
02:23
is that -- look at how predictable this is.
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jest njegova predvidljivost.
02:25
I mean this went through thick and thin,
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Mislim, ovaj napredak prošao je kroz debelo i tanko,
02:27
through war and peace, through boom times and recessions.
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rat i mir, kroz vrijeme procvata i recesije.
02:30
The Great Depression made not a dent in this exponential progression.
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Velika Depresija nije ni traga pustila na ovom eksponencijalnom rastu.
02:34
We'll see the same thing in the economic recession we're having now.
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Vidjet ćemo istu stvar u sadašnjoj ekonomskoj recesiji.
02:38
At least the exponential growth of information technology capability
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Barem će eksponencijalni rast sposobnosti informacijskih tehnologija
02:41
will continue unabated.
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nastaviti neoslabljen.
02:44
And I just updated these graphs.
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Upravo sam ažurirao ove grafove.
02:46
Because I had them through 2002 in my book, "The Singularity is Near."
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Jer sam ih koristio u svojoj knjizi iz 2002., "Singularnost se bliži."
02:49
So we updated them,
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Zato smo ih ažurirali
02:51
so I could present it here, to 2007.
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kako bi ih prezentirao ovdje, 2007.
02:54
And I was asked, "Well aren't you nervous?
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Pitali su me, "I, zar nisi nervozan?
02:56
Maybe it kind of didn't stay on this exponential progression."
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Možda nije nastavilo s ovom eksponencijalnom progresijom."
03:00
I was a little nervous
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Bio sam malo nervozan
03:02
because maybe the data wouldn't be right,
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jer možda podaci neće biti točni,
03:04
but I've done this now for 30 years,
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ali radio sam ovo, sada već 30 godina,
03:06
and it has stayed on this exponential progression.
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i rast je uvijek ostao eksponencijalan.
03:09
Look at this graph here.You could buy one transistor for a dollar in 1968.
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Pogledajte ovaj graf. Mogli ste kupiti jedan tranzistor za dolar 1968.
03:12
You can buy half a billion today,
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Danas možete kupiti pola milijarde.
03:14
and they are actually better, because they are faster.
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A zapravo su i bolji, jer su brži.
03:16
But look at how predictable this is.
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Ali pogledajte kako je ovo predvidljivo.
03:18
And I'd say this knowledge is over-fitting to past data.
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I rekao bih da se ovo znanje podudara sa ranijim podacima.
03:21
I've been making these forward-looking predictions for about 30 years.
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Radim na ovim predviđanjima već skoro 30 godina.
03:25
And the cost of a transistor cycle,
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Cijena tranzistorskog ciklusa,
03:27
which is a measure of the price performance of electronics,
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koja je mjerilo cijene performansi elektronike,
03:29
comes down about every year.
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pada otprilike svake godine.
03:31
That's a 50 percent deflation rate.
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To je deflacija od 50 posto.
03:33
And it's also true of other examples,
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A vrijedi i za druge primjere
03:35
like DNA data or brain data.
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kao što su DNA podaci ili podaci o mozgu.
03:37
But we more than make up for that.
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Ali mi više nego nadoknađujemo za to.
03:39
We actually ship more than twice as much
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Zapravo isporučujemo više nego dvostruko
03:41
of every form of information technology.
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svakog oblika informacijske tehnologije.
03:43
We've had 18 percent growth in constant dollars
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Imali smo 18 postotni rast u nepromijenjenim dolarima
03:46
in every form of information technology for the last half-century,
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u svakom obliku informacijskih tehnologija u zadnjih pola stoljeća.
03:49
despite the fact that you can get twice as much of it each year.
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Usprkos činjenici da ih možete dobiti dvostruko više svake godine.
03:53
This is a completely different example.
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Ovo je potpuno drugačiji primjer.
03:55
This is not Moore's Law.
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Ovo nije Moorov zakon.
03:57
The amount of DNA data
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Količina DNA podataka
03:59
we've sequenced has doubled every year.
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koje smo sekvencirali udvostručila se svake godine.
04:01
The cost has come down by half every year.
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Cijena se prepolovila svake godine.
04:04
And this has been a smooth progression
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Ovo je bio glatki progres
04:06
since the beginning of the genome project.
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od početka genomskog Projekta.
04:08
And halfway through the project, skeptics said,
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U pola projekta, skeptici su govorili,
04:10
"Well, this is not working out. You're halfway through the genome project
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"Ovo ne valja. Na polovici ste projekta genoma
04:13
and you've finished one percent of the project."
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i završili ste samo jedan posto projekta."
04:15
But that was really right on schedule.
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Ali to je zapravo bilo točno po rasporedu.
04:17
Because if you double one percent seven more times,
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Zato što ako udvostručite jedan posto još sedam puta,
04:19
which is exactly what happened,
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što je upravo ono što se dogodilo,
04:21
you get 100 percent. And the project was finished on time.
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dođete do 100 posto. I projekt je bio završen na vrijeme.
04:24
Communication technologies:
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Komunikacijske tehnologije:
04:26
50 different ways to measure this,
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50 različitih načina za mjerenje.
04:28
the number of bits being moved around, the size of the Internet.
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Broj bitova koji se prenose, veličina Interneta.
04:31
But this has progressed at an exponential pace.
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Ali ovo je napredovalo eksponencijalnim rastom.
04:33
This is deeply democratizing.
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Ovo je duboko demokratizirajuće.
04:35
I wrote, over 20 years ago in "The Age of Intelligent Machines,"
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Napisao sam, prije 20 godina, u knjizi "Doba inteligentnih strojeva",
04:38
when the Soviet Union was going strong, that it would be swept away
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kad je Sovjetski savez bio u punoj snazi, da će ga pomesti
04:41
by this growth of decentralized communication.
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ovaj rast decentralizirane komunikacije.
04:45
And we will have plenty of computation as we go through the 21st century
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I da ćemo imati dovoljnu snagu računala u 21. stoljeću
04:48
to do things like simulate regions of the human brain.
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da činimo stvari poput simuliranja pojedinih dijelova ljudskog mozga.
04:52
But where will we get the software?
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Ali gdje ćemo nabaviti softver?
04:54
Some critics say, "Oh, well software is stuck in the mud."
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Neki kritičari kažu, "Ah, softver je zapeo u blatu."
04:57
But we are learning more and more about the human brain.
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Ali učimo sve više o ljudskom mozgu.
04:59
Spatial resolution of brain scanning is doubling every year.
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Prostorna razlučivost skeniranja mozga udvostručuje se svake godine.
05:02
The amount of data we're getting about the brain is doubling every year.
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Količina podataka koje dobivamo o mozgu udvostručuje se svake godine.
05:05
And we're showing that we can actually turn this data
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I pokazujemo da zapravo možemo pretvoriti te podatke
05:08
into working models and simulations of brain regions.
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u radne modele i simulacije moždanih područja.
05:11
There is about 20 regions of the brain that have been modeled,
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Postoji oko 20 područja u mozgu koja su bila modelirana,
05:13
simulated and tested:
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simulirane i testirane:
05:15
the auditory cortex, regions of the visual cortex;
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auditorni korteks, područja vizualnog korteksa,
05:18
cerebellum, where we do our skill formation;
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mali mozak, gdje formiramo vještine,
05:20
slices of the cerebral cortex, where we do our rational thinking.
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dijelovi moždane kore, kojeg koristimo za racionalno razmišljanje.
05:24
And all of this has fueled
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I sve je ovo potaknulo
05:26
an increase, very smooth and predictable, of productivity.
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povećanje produktivnosti, vrlo glatko i predvidljivo.
05:29
We've gone from 30 dollars to 130 dollars
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Otišli smo sa 30 dolara na 130 dolara
05:31
in constant dollars in the value of an average hour of human labor,
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u nepromijenjenim dolarima u vrijednosti prosječnog sata ljudskog rada,
05:35
fueled by this information technology.
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pogonjenu ovom informacijskom tehnologijom.
05:38
And we're all concerned about energy and the environment.
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I svi smo zabrinuti za energiju i okoliš.
05:41
Well this is a logarithmic graph.
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Ovo je logaritamski graf.
05:43
This represents a smooth doubling,
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Ovo predstavlja glatko udvostručenje,
05:45
every two years, of the amount of solar energy we're creating,
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svake dvije godine, u količini solarne energije koju proizvodimo.
05:49
particularly as we're now applying nanotechnology,
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Posebno zato što danas primjenjujemo nanotehnologiju,
05:51
a form of information technology, to solar panels.
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oblik informacijske tehnologije, za solarne panele.
05:54
And we're only eight doublings away
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I samo smo osam udvostručenja udaljeni
05:56
from it meeting 100 percent of our energy needs.
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od pokrivanja 100 posto naših energetskih potreba.
05:58
And there is 10 thousand times more sunlight than we need.
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A postoji 10 tisuća puta više sunčeve svjetlosti nego što nam je potrebno.
06:02
We ultimately will merge with this technology. It's already very close to us.
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Na kraju ćemo se spojiti s ovom tehnologijom. Već nam je jako bliska.
06:07
When I was a student it was across campus, now it's in our pockets.
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Kad sam ja bio student prostirala se preko kampusa. Sada stane u naše džepove.
06:10
What used to take up a building now fits in our pockets.
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Ono što je nekad zauzimalo zgradu sada stane u džep.
06:13
What now fits in our pockets would fit in a blood cell in 25 years.
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Što sada stane u džep, moći će stati u krvnu stanicu za 25 godina.
06:16
And we will begin to actually deeply influence
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Početi ćemo zapravo duboko utjecati
06:20
our health and our intelligence,
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na naše zdravlje i inteligenciju,
06:22
as we get closer and closer to this technology.
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kako se budemo zbližavali sa ovom tehnologijom.
06:26
Based on that we are announcing, here at TED,
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Na osnovu toga najavljujemo, ovdje na TEDu,
06:29
in true TED tradition, Singularity University.
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u istinskoj TED tradiciji, Sveučilište Singularnosti.
06:32
It's a new university
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To je novo sveučilište
06:34
that's founded by Peter Diamandis, who is here in the audience,
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koje smo osnovali Peter Diamandis, koji je ovdje u publici,
06:36
and myself.
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i ja.
06:38
It's backed by NASA and Google,
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Podržavaju ga NASA i Google,
06:40
and other leaders in the high-tech and science community.
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i drugi vođe visoko-tehnološke i znanstvene zajednice.
06:44
And our goal was to assemble the leaders,
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Naš cilj je spojiti vođe,
06:47
both teachers and students,
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učitelje i učenike,
06:49
in these exponentially growing information technologies,
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s ovim rastućim informacijskim tehnologijama
06:51
and their application.
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i njihovom primjenom.
06:53
But Larry Page made an impassioned speech
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Larry Page održao je strastveni govor
06:55
at our organizing meeting,
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na našem organizacijskom sastanku,
06:57
saying we should devote this study
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govoreći da trebamo posvetiti ovaj studij
07:02
to actually addressing some of the major challenges facing humanity.
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glavnim izazovima za čovječanstvo.
07:06
And if we did that, then Google would back this.
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I ako bismo to učinili, Google bi to podržao.
07:08
And so that's what we've done.
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Stoga, to je ono što smo učinili.
07:10
The last third of the nine-week intensive summer session
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Posljednja trećina intenzinve ljetne sesije od devet tjedana
07:14
will be devoted to a group project to address
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biti će posvećena grupnom projektu usmjerenom
07:16
some major challenge of humanity.
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ka jednom glavnom izazovu čovječanstva.
07:18
Like for example, applying the Internet,
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Kao naprimjer, primjena Interneta,
07:20
which is now ubiquitous, in the rural areas of China or in Africa,
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koji je sad sveprisutan, u ruralnim područjima Kine ili Afrike,
07:25
to bringing health information
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za prijenos informacija o zdravstvu
07:27
to developing areas of the world.
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područjima u ravoju.
07:30
And these projects will continue past these sessions,
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Ti projekti će se nastaviti i nakon ovih sjednica,
07:33
using collaborative interactive communication.
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korištenjem suradničkih interaktivnih komunikacija.
07:36
All the intellectual property that is created and taught
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Svo intelektualno vlasništvo koje se stvara i podučava,
07:40
will be online and available,
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bit će online i dostupno,
07:42
and developed online in a collaborative fashion.
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i razvijano online kroz međusobnu suradnju.
07:45
Here is our founding meeting.
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Ovo je naš osnivački sastanak.
07:47
But this is being announced today.
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Ali ovo je najavljeno danas.
07:49
It will be permanently headquartered in Silicon Valley,
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Bit će trajno smješteno u Silicijskoj dolini,
07:52
at the NASA Ames research center.
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u NASA Ames istraživačkom centru.
07:54
There are different programs for graduate students,
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Postoje različiti programi za dodiplomske studente
07:56
for executives at different companies.
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i za menadžere različitih kompanija.
07:59
The first six tracks here -- artificial intelligence,
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Prvih šest smjerova, umjetna inteligencija,
08:01
advanced computing technologies, biotechnology, nanotechnology --
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napredne računalne tehnologije, biotehnologija, nanotehnologija
08:04
are the different core areas of information technology.
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različita su sržna područja informacijskih tehnologija.
08:08
Then we are going to apply them to the other areas,
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Kasnije ćemo ih primjeniti na druga područja,
08:10
like energy, ecology,
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poput energije, ekologije,
08:13
policy law and ethics, entrepreneurship,
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zkonodavstva i etike, poduzetništva,
08:15
so that people can bring these new technologies to the world.
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tako da ljudi mogu donijeti te nove tehnologije u svijet.
08:19
So we're very appreciative of the support we've gotten
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Vrlo smo zahvalni na podršci koju smo primili
08:24
from both the intellectual leaders, the high-tech leaders,
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od intelektualnih vođa, visoko-tehnoloških vođa,
08:26
particularly Google and NASA.
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a posebno od Google-a i NASA-e.
08:28
This is an exciting new venture.
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Ovo je uzbudljiv novi pothvat.
08:30
And we invite you to participate. Thank you very much.
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I pozivamo vas da sudjelujete. Najljepša vam hvala.
08:33
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ray Kurzweil - Inventor, futuristRay Kurzweil is an engineer who has radically advanced the fields of speech, text and audio technology. He's revered for his dizzying -- yet convincing -- writing on the advance of technology, the limits of biology and the future of the human species.
Why you should listen
Inventor, entrepreneur, visionary, Ray Kurzweil's accomplishments read as a startling series of firsts -- a litany of technological breakthroughs we've come to take for granted. Kurzweil invented the first optical character recognition (OCR) software for transforming the written word into data, the first print-to-speech software for the blind, the first text-to-speech synthesizer, and the first music synthesizer capable of recreating the grand piano and other orchestral instruments, and the first commercially marketed large-vocabulary speech recognition.
Yet his impact as a futurist and philosopher is no less significant. In his best-selling books, which include How to Create a Mind, The Age of Spiritual Machines, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Kurzweil depicts in detail a portrait of the human condition over the next few decades, as accelerating technologies forever blur the line between human and machine.
In 2009, he unveiled Singularity University, an institution that aims to "assemble, educate and inspire leaders who strive to understand and facilitate the development of exponentially advancing technologies." He is a Director of Engineering at Google, where he heads up a team developing machine intelligence and natural language comprehension.
Ray Kurzweil | Speaker | TED.com