TED2011
Harvey Fineberg: Are we ready for neo-evolution?
Harvey Fineberg: Jesmo li spremni za neo-evoluciju?
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Medicinski etičar, Harvey Fineberg, nam ukazuje na tri puta naprijed za stalno evoluirajuću ljudsku vrstu: kompletni prestanak evolucije, prirodnu evoluciju -- ili kontrola slijedećih koraka ljudske evolucije, koristeći genetsku modifikaciju, kako bi se učinili pametnijima, bržima, boljima. Neo-evolucija je unutar našeg dosega. Što ćemo učiniti?
Harvey Fineberg - Health policy expert
Harvey Fineberg studies medical decisionmaking -- from how we roll out new medical technology, to how we cope with new illnesses and threatened epidemics. Full bio
Harvey Fineberg studies medical decisionmaking -- from how we roll out new medical technology, to how we cope with new illnesses and threatened epidemics. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
How would you like to be better than you are?
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Da li bi voljeli biti bolji nego što jeste?
00:19
Suppose I said
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Zamislite da vam kažem
00:21
that, with just a few changes in your genes,
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da sa samo par promjena u vašim genima,
00:23
you could get a better memory --
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vi bi mogli imati bolju memoriju --
00:25
more precise,
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više preciznu,
00:27
more accurate and quicker.
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točniju i bržu.
00:30
Or maybe you'd like to be more fit, stronger,
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Ili bi možda htjeli biti u boljoj formi, jači,
00:33
with more stamina.
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više izdržljivi.
00:35
Would you like to be more attractive and self-confident?
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Da li bi htjeli biti privlačniji i vise samouvjereni?
00:39
How about living longer with good health?
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A da možete življeti dulje s dobrim zdravljem?
00:42
Or perhaps you're one of those
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Ili možda ste jedni od onih
00:44
who's always yearned for more creativity.
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koji su od uvijek željeli biti više kreativni.
00:47
Which one would you like the most?
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Što od ovoga bi najviše voljeli?
00:51
Which would you like, if you could have just one?
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Što bi vi izabrali, da možete imati samo jedno?
00:53
(Audience Member: Creativity.)
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(Član publike: Kreativnost.)
00:55
Creativity.
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Kreativnost.
00:57
How many people would choose creativity?
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Koliko bi ljudi izabralo kreativnost?
00:59
Raise your hands. Let me see.
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Podignite ruke. Da vidim.
01:01
A few. Probably about as many as there are creative people here.
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Nekoliko vas. Vjerojatno onoliko koliko i ima ovdje kreativnih ljudi.
01:04
(Laughter) That's very good.
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To je jako dobro.
01:06
How many would opt for memory?
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Koliko vas bi izabralo memoriju?
01:09
Quite a few more.
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Više vas.
01:11
How about fitness?
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A dobru formu?
01:13
A few less.
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Malo manje.
01:15
What about longevity?
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Što je s dugovječnosti?
01:17
Ah, the majority. That makes me feel very good as a doctor.
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Ah, većina. To me kao liječnika čini vrlo sretnim.
01:21
If you could have any one of these,
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Da možete imati bilo koju od ovih osobina,
01:24
it would be a very different world.
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bio bi to sasvim drugačiji svijet.
01:26
Is it just imaginary?
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Da li je samo imaginaran?
01:28
Or, is it, perhaps, possible?
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Ili je možda moguć?
01:31
Evolution has been a perennial topic
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Evolucija je trajna tema
01:34
here at the TED Conference,
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ovdje na TED konferenciji,
01:37
but I want to give you today
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ali vam ja danas želim dati
01:39
one doctor's take on the subject.
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stajalište jednog liječnika na ovu temu.
01:41
The great 20th-century geneticist,
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Veliki genetičar 20. stoljeća,
01:43
T.G. Dobzhansky,
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T.G. Dobzhansky,
01:45
who was also a communicant
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koji je bio pričesnik
01:47
in the Russian Orthodox Church,
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u ruskoj ortodoksnoj crkvi
01:49
once wrote an essay that he titled
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jednom je napisao esej kojem je dao naslov
01:52
"Nothing in Biology Makes Sense
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"Ništa u biologiji nema smisla
01:55
Except in the Light of Evolution."
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osim u svijetlu evolucije."
01:58
Now if you are one of those
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Sada, ako ste Vi jedan od onih
02:00
who does not accept the evidence for biological evolution,
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koji ne prihvaća dokaze za biološku evoluciju,
02:03
this would be a very good time to turn off your hearing aid,
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ovo bi bio pravi trenutak da isključite svoje slušne aparate,
02:06
take out your personal communications device --
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izvadite vaš osobni komunikacijski uređaj --
02:08
I give you permission --
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dajem vam dopuštenje --
02:10
and perhaps take another look at Kathryn Schultz's book on being wrong,
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i možda ponovo pogledate knjigu od Kathryn Schultz o tome "kada si u krivu",
02:13
because nothing in the rest of this talk
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zato što ništa u ostatku ovog govora
02:15
is going to make any sense whatsoever to you.
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vam neće biti jasno.
02:18
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:20
But if you do accept
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Ali ako prihvaćate
02:22
biological evolution,
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biološku evoluciju
02:25
consider this:
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rezmotrite ovo:
02:27
is it just about the past,
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da li je to samo o prošlosti,
02:29
or is it about the future?
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ili je o budućnosti?
02:31
Does it apply to others,
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Da li se odnosi na druge,
02:33
or does it apply to us?
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ili na nas?
02:36
This is another look at the tree of life.
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Ovo je još jedan prikaz drva života.
02:39
In this picture,
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Na ovoj slici,
02:41
I've put a bush with a center branching out in all directions,
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stavio sam grm sa središtem koji se grana u svim smjerovima,
02:44
because if you look at the edges
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zato što ako pogledate rubove
02:46
of the tree of life,
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drva života,
02:48
every existing species
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svaka postojeća vrsta
02:50
at the tips of those branches
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na vrhovima tih grana
02:52
has succeeded in evolutionary terms:
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je uspjela u evolucijskom smislu:
02:54
it has survived;
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preživjela je;
02:56
it has demonstrated a fitness
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pokazala je fizičku spremu
02:58
to its environment.
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za svoj okoliš.
03:00
The human part of this branch,
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Ljudski dio ove grane,
03:03
way out on one end,
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skroz vani na jednom kraju,
03:06
is, of course, the one that we are most interested in.
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je naravno dio koji nas najviše zanima.
03:10
We branch off of a common ancestor
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Mi se granamo iz zajedničkog predaka
03:12
to modern chimpanzees
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modernih čimpanzi
03:14
about six or eight million years ago.
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prije oko šest ili osam milijuna godina.
03:17
In the interval,
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U tom intervalu,
03:19
there have been perhaps 20 or 25
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bilo je možda 20 ili 25
03:21
different species of hominids.
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različitih vrsta hominida.
03:24
Some have come and gone.
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Neki su došli i prošli.
03:27
We have been here for about 130,000 years.
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Mi smo ovdje oko 130.000 godina.
03:31
It may seem like we're quite remote
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Možda izgleda kao da smo dosta udaljeni
03:33
from other parts of this tree of life,
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od drugih dijelova ovog stabla života,
03:36
but actually, for the most part,
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ali zapravo, većinski gledano,
03:39
the basic machinery of our cells
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osnovna mašinerija naših stanica
03:42
is pretty much the same.
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je manje više ista.
03:44
Do you realize that we can take advantage
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Da li znate da mi možemo iskoristiti
03:47
and commandeer the machinery of a common bacterium
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i upravljati mašinerijom jedne obične bakterije
03:50
to produce the protein of human insulin
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kako bi ona proizvela protein ljudskog insulina
03:53
used to treat diabetics?
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koji koristimo u liječenju šećerne bolesti?
03:55
This is not like human insulin;
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Ovo nije kao ljudski insulin;
03:57
this is the same protein
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ovo je isti protein
03:59
that is chemically indistinguishable
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koji se kemijski ne razlikuje
04:01
from what comes out of your pancreas.
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od onoga što izlazi iz vaše gušterače.
04:06
And speaking of bacteria,
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Kada spominjem već bakterije,
04:08
do you realize that each of us carries in our gut
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znate li da svatko od nas u svom probavnom sustavu nosi
04:11
more bacteria
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više bakterija
04:13
than there are cells in the rest of our body?
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nego što je stanica u ostatku našeg tijela?
04:15
Maybe 10 times more.
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Možda 10 puta više.
04:17
I mean think of it,
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Zamislite,
04:19
when Antonio Damasio asks about your self-image,
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kada vas Antonio Damasio pita o vašoj slici sebe,
04:22
do you think about the bacteria?
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da li mislite o bakterijama?
04:26
Our gut is a wonderfully hospitable environment
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Naš je probavni sustav predivno gostoljubljiv okoliš
04:28
for those bacteria.
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za te bakterije.
04:30
It's warm, it's dark, it's moist,
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Toplo je, mračno, vlažno,
04:32
it's very cozy.
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jako je udobno.
04:34
And you're going to provide all the nutrition that they could possibly want
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Uz to, vi ćete osigurati svu potrebnu ishranu koju bi oni mogli poželjeti
04:36
with no effort on their part.
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bez bilo kojeg napora s njihove strane.
04:38
It's really like an Easy Street for bacteria,
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To je lagodni životni put za bakterije,
04:41
with the occasional interruption
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s povremenom smetnjom
04:44
of the unintended forced rush to the exit.
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zbog neželjenog prisilnog zaleta prema izlazu.
04:46
But otherwise,
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Ali inače,
04:49
you are a wonderful environment for those bacteria,
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vi ste predivan okoliš za te bakterije,
04:52
just as they are essential to your life.
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kao i što su oni esencijalni u vašem životu.
04:55
They help in the digestion of essential nutrients,
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Oni pomažu u probavljanju esencijalnih hranjivih tvari.
04:58
and they protect you against certain diseases.
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I štite vas od određenih bolesti.
05:02
But what will come in the future?
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Ali što će doći u budućnosti?
05:04
Are we at some kind of evolutionary equipoise
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Jesmo li došli do nekakve evolucionarne ravnoteže
05:07
as a species?
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kao vrsta?
05:09
Or, are we destined
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Ili smo predodređeni
05:11
to become something different --
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da postanemo nešto drugačije --
05:13
something, perhaps, even better adapted
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možda nešto još bolje prilagođeno
05:16
to the environment?
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okolišu?
05:18
Now let's take a step back in time
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Ajmo sada zakoračiti nazad u vremenu
05:21
to the Big Bang, 14 billion years ago --
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do Velikog Praska, prije 14 milijardi godina --
05:24
the Earth, the solar system,
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Zemlja, Sunčev sustav,
05:26
about four and a half billion years --
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prije oko četiri i pol milijardi godina --
05:29
the first signs of proto-life,
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prvi znakovi proto-života,
05:31
maybe three to four billion years ago on Earth --
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na Zemlji možda prije tri do četiri milijardi godina --
05:33
the first multi-celled organisms,
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prvi višestanični organizmi,
05:36
perhaps as much
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možda prije
05:38
as 800 or a billion years ago --
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800 ili milijardu godina --
05:41
and then the human species,
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i onda ljudska vrsta,
05:43
finally emerging
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se konačno pojavila
05:45
in the last 130,000 years.
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u zadnjih 130.000 godina.
05:48
In this vast unfinished symphony of the universe,
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U ovom prostranom nedovršenom simfoniju svemira,
05:51
life on Earth is like a brief measure;
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život na Zemlji je tek kitica;
05:54
the animal kingdom,
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životinjsko carstvo,
05:56
like a single measure;
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kao jedan takt;
05:59
and human life,
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a ljudski život,
06:01
a small grace note.
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kao mala nota.
06:03
That was us.
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To smo bili mi.
06:06
That also constitutes the entertainment portion of this talk,
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Također to konstatira zabavni dio ovog govora,
06:08
so I hope you enjoyed it.
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nadam se da ste uživali.
06:10
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:12
Now when I was a freshman in college,
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Kada sam bio brucoš na fakultetu,
06:15
I took my first biology class.
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išao sam na svoj prvi kolegij iz biologije.
06:17
I was fascinated
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Bio sam fasciniran
06:19
by the elegance and beauty of biology.
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elegancijom i ljepotom biologije.
06:22
I became enamored of the power of evolution,
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Postao sam zaljubljen u moć evolucije,
06:25
and I realized something very fundamental:
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i zaključio sam nešto vrlo fundamentalno:
06:27
in most of the existence of life
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u većini vremena postojanja života
06:29
in single-celled organisms,
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u jednostaničnim organizmima,
06:31
each cell simply divides,
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svaka stanica se jednostavno dijeli,
06:33
and all of the genetic energy of that cell
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i sva genetička energija te stanice
06:36
is carried on in both daughter cells.
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se prenosi na obje stanice kćeri.
06:39
But at the time multi-celled organisms come online,
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Ali u trenutku kada se pojave višestanični organizmi,
06:43
things start to change.
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stvari se počinju mjenjati.
06:45
Sexual reproduction enters the picture.
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Javlja se seksualna reprodukcija.
06:48
And very importantly,
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I što je vrlo bitno,
06:50
with the introduction of sexual reproduction
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s uvođenjem seksualne reprodukcije
06:53
that passes on the genome,
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koja prenosi genom,
06:55
the rest of the body
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ostatak tijela
06:57
becomes expendable.
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postaje potrošna roba.
06:59
In fact, you could say
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Zapravo, mogli bi reći
07:02
that the inevitability of the death of our bodies
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da neizbježna smrt naših tijela
07:05
enters in evolutionary time
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ulazi u evolucionarno vrijeme
07:07
at the same moment
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u istom momentu
07:09
as sexual reproduction.
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kao i seksualna reprodukcija.
07:11
Now I have to confess,
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Sada, moram priznati,
07:13
when I was a college undergraduate,
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kada sam bio na fakultetu,
07:15
I thought, okay, sex/death, sex/death, death for sex --
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mislio sam, ok, seks/smrt, seks/smrt, smrt za seks --
07:19
it seemed pretty reasonable at the time,
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činilo se dosta razumno u to vrijeme,
07:22
but with each passing year,
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ali sa svakom godinom,
07:24
I've come to have increasing doubts.
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počeo sam imati sve veće sumnje.
07:26
I've come to understand the sentiments of George Burns,
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Sada razumijem sentiment George-a Burns-a,
07:29
who was performing still in Las Vegas
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koji je još uvijek nastupao u Las Vegasu
07:31
well into his 90s.
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u svojim 90-tim godinama.
07:33
And one night, there's a knock at his hotel room door.
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Jedne večeri netko mu pokuca na vrata hotelske sobe.
07:35
He answers the door.
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Otvara vrata.
07:37
Standing before him is a gorgeous, scantily clad showgirl.
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Ispred njega stoji predivna oskudno odjevena djevojka.
07:40
She looks at him and says,
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Ona ga pogleda i kaže,
07:42
"I'm here for super sex."
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"Ja sam ovdje za super seks."
07:45
"That's fine," says George, "I'll take the soup."
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"To je u redu," kaže George, "Ja ću uzeti juhu."
07:48
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:52
I came to realize,
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Shvatio sam
07:54
as a physician,
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da sam kao liječnik
07:56
that I was working toward a goal
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radio prema cilju
07:59
which was different from the goal of evolution --
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koji je drugačiji od cilja evolucije --
08:02
not necessarily contradictory, just different.
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ne nužno kontradiktorni, samo drugačiji.
08:05
I was trying to preserve the body.
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Ja sam pokušavao održati tijelo.
08:07
I wanted to keep us healthy.
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Htio sam da ostanemo zdravi.
08:09
I wanted to restore health from disease.
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Htio sam vratiti zdravlje kod bolesti.
08:12
I wanted us to live long and healthy lives.
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Želio sam da živimo duge i zdrave živote.
08:15
Evolution is all about passing on the genome
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Evolucija samo želi prenijeti genom
08:18
to the next generation,
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na slijedeću generaciju,
08:20
adapting and surviving
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adaptirajući se i preživljavajući
08:23
through generation after generation.
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iz generacije u generaciju.
08:25
From an evolutionary point of view,
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S evolucionarnog stajališta,
08:28
you and I are like the booster rockets
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vi i ja smo kao booster rakete
08:30
designed to send the genetic payload
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dizajnirani kako bi poslali genetički materijal
08:32
into the next level of orbit
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u slijedeći nivo orbite
08:34
and then drop off into the sea.
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i onda padnemo u more.
08:37
I think we would all understand the sentiment that Woody Allen expressed
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Mislim da bi svi mogli razumjeti razmišljanje Woody-a Allena
08:40
when he said, "I don't want to achieve immortality through my work.
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kada je rekao, "Ja ne želim postići besmrtnost kroz svoj rad.
08:44
I want to achieve it through not dying."
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Ja je želim postići tako da ne umrem."
08:46
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
08:49
Evolution does not necessarily
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Evolucija ne mora nužno
08:52
favor the longest-lived.
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preferirati najdugovječnijeg.
08:54
It doesn't necessarily favor the biggest
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Niti nužno mora preferirati najvećeg
08:56
or the strongest or the fastest,
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niti najjačeg niti najbržeg,
08:58
and not even the smartest.
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čak niti najpametnijeg.
09:00
Evolution favors
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Evolucija preferira
09:02
those creatures best adapted
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ona stvorenja koja su najbolje prilagođena
09:05
to their environment.
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svome okolišu.
09:07
That is the sole test
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To je jedini test
09:09
of survival and success.
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za preživljavanje i uspijeh.
09:11
At the bottom of the ocean,
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Na dnu oceana,
09:13
bacteria that are thermophilic
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termofilne bakterije
09:15
and can survive at the steam vent heat
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mogu preživjeti vrućinu parnog ventila
09:18
that would otherwise produce, if fish were there,
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koja bi inače proizvela, da su tamo ribe,
09:21
sous-vide cooked fish,
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sous-vide kuhanu ribu,
09:23
nevertheless, have managed
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bezobzira na to, oni su uspjeli
09:25
to make that a hospitable environment for them.
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to pretvoriti u, za njih, gostoljubiv okoliš.
09:30
So what does this mean,
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Što bi to značilo,
09:33
as we look back at what has happened in evolution,
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kada pogledamo nazad na događaje u evoluciji,
09:36
and as we think about the place again
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i kada ponovo pomislimo na mjesto
09:39
of humans in evolution,
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ljudi u evoluciji,
09:42
and particularly as we look ahead
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pogotovo kada gledamo u budućnost
09:45
to the next phase,
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na slijedeću fazu,
09:47
I would say
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ja bih rekao
09:49
that there are a number of possibilities.
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da postoje brojne mogućnosti.
09:52
The first is that we will not evolve.
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Prvo, da nećemo evoluirati.
09:57
We have reached
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Da smo dosegli
09:59
a kind of equipoise.
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vrstu ravnoteže.
10:01
And the reasoning behind that would be,
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Objašnjenje iza ovoga bi bilo,
10:03
first, we have, through medicine,
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prvo, da smo kroz medicinu,
10:06
managed to preserve a lot of genes
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uspjeli održati mnoge gene
10:08
that would otherwise be selected out
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koji bi inače bili odabrani za propast
10:10
and be removed from the population.
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i bili uklonjeni iz populacije.
10:12
And secondly, we as a species
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Drugo, mi smo kao vrsta
10:14
have so configured our environment
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promijenili naš okoliš tako
10:17
that we have managed to make it adapt to us
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da smo ga prilagodili prema sebi samima
10:20
as well as we adapt to it.
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kao što se mi prilagođavamo njemu.
10:23
And by the way, we immigrate and circulate
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Još uz to, mi imigriramo i cirkuliramo
10:25
and intermix so much
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i mješamo se toliko
10:27
that you can't any longer
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da se ne može više
10:29
have the isolation that is necessary
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uspostaviti izolacija koja je potrebna
10:31
for evolution to take place.
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da bi se desila evolucija.
10:34
A second possibility
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Druga mogućnost
10:36
is that there will be evolution of the traditional kind,
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je da će biti evolucija tradicionalne vrste,
10:39
natural, imposed by the forces of nature.
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prirodna, određena prirodnim silama.
10:44
And the argument here would be
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Argument za ovo bi bio
10:46
that the wheels of evolution grind slowly,
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da kotači evolucije se sporo okreću,
10:49
but they are inexorable.
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ali su neumoljivi.
10:51
And as far as isolation goes,
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Što se tiće izolacije,
10:53
when we as a species
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kada mi kao vrsta
10:55
do colonize distant planets,
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koloniziramo udaljene planete,
10:57
there will be the isolation and the environmental changes
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biti će izolacije i okolišnih promjena
11:00
that could produce evolution
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koji bi mogli proizvesti evoluciju
11:03
in the natural way.
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na prirodan način.
11:05
But there's a third possibility,
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Ali postoji i treća mogućnost,
11:07
an enticing, intriguing and frightening possibility.
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namamljiva, intrigantna i zastrašujuća mogućnost.
11:10
I call it neo-evolution --
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Zovem je neo-evolucija --
11:12
the new evolution
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nova evolucija
11:14
that is not simply natural,
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koja nije jednostavno prirodna,
11:16
but guided and chosen
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nego je vođena i izabrana
11:19
by us as individuals
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od nas kao pojedinaca
11:22
in the choices that we will make.
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putem odluka koje radimo.
11:24
Now how could this come about?
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Sada, kako bi moglo doći do ovoga?
11:27
How could it be possible that we would do this?
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Kako je uopće moguće da bi mi to radili?
11:30
Consider, first, the reality
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Uzmite u obzir realnost
11:33
that people today, in some cultures,
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da danas ljudi, u nekim kulturama,
11:36
are making choices about their offspring.
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odlučuju o svojemu potomstvu.
11:39
They're, in some cultures,
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U nekim kulturama,
11:41
choosing to have more males than females.
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odlučuju imati više muške nego ženske djece.
11:44
It's not necessarily good for the society,
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To nije nužno dobro za društvo,
11:46
but it's what the individual and the family are choosing.
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ali je to ono što individualac i obitelj biraju.
11:50
Think also,
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Zamislite isto tako,
11:52
if it were possible ever
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kada bi bilo moguće
11:56
for you to choose, not simply to choose the sex of your child,
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ne samo da jednostavno izaberete spol svojeg djeteta,
11:59
but for you in your body
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nego da i vi u vašem tijelu
12:02
to make the genetic adjustments
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možete raditi genetička podešavanja
12:05
that would cure or prevent diseases.
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koja bi izliječila ili prevenirala bolesti.
12:07
What if you could make the genetic changes
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Što da možete promjeniti gene tako
12:10
to eliminate diabetes or Alzheimer's
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da eliminirate šečernu bolest ili Alzheimer
12:13
or reduce the risk of cancer
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ili reducirate rizik za rak
12:15
or eliminate stroke?
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ili eliminirate moždani udar?
12:17
Wouldn't you want
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Da li bi htjeli
12:19
to make those changes
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napraviti te promjene
12:21
in your genes?
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u svojim genima?
12:23
If we look ahead,
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Ako pogledamo u budućnost,
12:25
these kind of changes
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ovakve će promjene
12:27
are going to be increasingly possible.
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biti sve više moguće.
12:32
The Human Genome Project
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Projekt ljudskog genoma
12:34
started in 1990,
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započet je 1990.,
12:36
and it took 13 years.
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i trajao je 13 godina.
12:38
It cost 2.7 billion dollars.
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Koštao je 2,7 milijardi dolara.
12:43
The year after it was finished in 2004,
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Godinu dana nakon završetka, u 2004.,
12:46
you could do the same job
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mogli bi napraviti isti posao
12:48
for 20 million dollars in three to four months.
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za 20 milijuna dolara u tri do četiri mjeseca.
12:51
Today, you can have a complete sequence
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Danas, možemo imati kompletnu sekvencu
12:54
of the three billion base pairs in the human genome
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od tri milijardi parova baza ljudskog genoma
12:56
at a cost of about 20,000 dollars
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za cijenu od oko 20.000 dolara
12:59
and in the space of about a week.
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u vremenskom razdoblju od oko jednog tjedna.
13:01
It won't be very long
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Uskoro će biti
13:03
before the reality will be
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realnost
13:05
the 1,000-dollar human genome,
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ljudski genom za 1.000 dolara,
13:07
and it will be increasingly available for everyone.
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i postati će više dostupan svima.
13:11
Just a week ago,
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Prije samo tjedan dana,
13:13
the National Academy of Engineering
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nacionalna akademija inžinjerstva
13:15
awarded its Draper Prize
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je podjelila nagradu Draper
13:17
to Francis Arnold and Willem Stemmer,
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Francis-u Arnold-u i Willem-u Stemmer-u,
13:19
two scientists who independently developed techniques
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dvjema znanstvenicima koji su samostalno razvili tehnike
13:23
to encourage the natural process of evolution to work faster
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koje potiču prirodni proces evolucije da radi brže
13:27
and to lead to desirable proteins
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i da pritom dovodi to stvaranja poželjnih proteina
13:29
in a more efficient way --
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na više efikasan način --
13:31
what Frances Arnold calls "directed evolution."
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ovo Frances Arnold naziva "direktna evolucija."
13:35
A couple of years ago, the Lasker Prize
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Prije par godina, nagrada Lasker
13:38
was awarded to the scientist Shinya Yamanaka
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je bila dodjeljena znanstveniku Shinya-u Yamanaka-u
13:41
for his research
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za njegov istaživački rad
13:43
in which he took an adult skin cell,
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u kojem je uzeo zrelu kožnu stanicu,
13:45
a fibroblast,
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fibroblast,
13:47
and by manipulating just four genes,
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i putem manipulacije samo četiri gena,
13:50
he induced that cell
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inducirao stanicu
13:52
to revert to a pluripotential stem cell --
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da se vrati u pluripotentnu matičnu stanicu --
13:56
a cell potentially capable
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stanica koja ima potencijal
13:59
of becoming any cell in your body.
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postati bilo koja stanica u vašem tijelu.
14:02
These changes are coming.
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Ove promjene dolaze.
14:04
The same technology
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Ista tehnologija
14:06
that has produced the human insulin in bacteria
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koja je proizvela ljudski inzulin u bakteriji
14:08
can make viruses
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može proizvesti viruse
14:10
that will not only protect you against themselves,
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koje će ne samo štititi vas od njih samih,
14:13
but induce immunity against other viruses.
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već će i inducirati imunost protiv drugih virusa.
14:15
Believe it or not,
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Vjerovali ili ne,
14:17
there's an experimental trial going on
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provodi se eksperimentalno istraživanje
14:19
with vaccine against influenza
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sa cjepivom protiv gripe
14:22
that has been grown in the cells of a tobacco plant.
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koji je proizveden iz stanica biljke duhana.
14:26
Can you imagine something good coming out of tobacco?
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Možete li zamisliti da bi nešto dobro moglo nastati iz duhana?
14:30
These are all reality today,
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Ovo je sve danas realnost,
14:33
and [in] the future, will be evermore possible.
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i u budućnosti biti će sve više toga moguće.
14:36
Imagine then
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Zamislite onda
14:38
just two other little changes.
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samo još dvije druge male promjene.
14:41
You can change the cells in your body,
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Možete mjenjati stanice u svom tijelu,
14:43
but what if you could change the cells in your offspring?
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ali što bi bilo da možete mjenjati stanice vaših potomaka?
14:47
What if you could change the sperm and the ova,
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Da možete promjeniti spermu i jajnu stanicu,
14:49
or change the newly fertilized egg,
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ili promjeniti novo fertiliziranu jajnu stanicu,
14:52
and give your offspring a better chance
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i dati vašim potomcima bolju šansu
14:54
at a healthier life --
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za zdraviji život --
14:56
eliminate the diabetes, eliminate the hemophilia,
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eliminirati šećernu bolest, eliminirati hemofiliju,
14:58
reduce the risk of cancer?
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smanjiti rizik za rak?
15:00
Who doesn't want healthier children?
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Tko ne želi imati zdraviju djecu?
15:03
And then, that same analytic technology,
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I onda, ta ista analitička tehnologija,
15:06
that same engine of science
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taj isti motor znanosti
15:08
that can produce
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koji može proizvesti
15:10
the changes to prevent disease,
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promjene za prevenciju bolesti,
15:12
will also enable us
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će isto tako nam omogućiti
15:15
to adopt super-attributes,
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prisvajanje super-atributa,
15:17
hyper-capacities --
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hiper-mogućnosti --
15:19
that better memory.
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onu bolju memoriju.
15:21
Why not have the quick wit
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Zašto ne imati brzu pamet
15:23
of a Ken Jennings,
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kao Ken Jennings,
15:25
especially if you can augment it
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pogotovo ako je možete povećati
15:27
with the next generation of the Watson machine?
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sa slijedećom generacijom Watsonova stroja?
15:30
Why not have the quick twitch muscle
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Zašto ne bi imali brzo reagirajuće mišiće
15:33
that will enable you to run faster and longer?
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koji vam omogućuju da trčite brže i duže?
15:36
Why not live longer?
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Zašto ne bi živjeli duže?
15:40
These will be irresistible.
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Ove mogućnosti će biti neodoljive.
15:42
And when we are at a position
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A mi smo u poziciji
15:45
where we can pass it on to the next generation,
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da ih možemo prenijeti na slijedeću generaciju,
15:47
and we can adopt the attributes we want,
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i možemo prisvojiti atribute koje želimo,
15:50
we will have converted
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pretvorili bi
15:53
old-style evolution
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staromodnu evoluciju
15:55
into neo-evolution.
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u neo-evoluciju.
15:57
We'll take a process
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Uzeti ćemo proces
15:59
that normally might require 100,000 years,
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koji normalno traje možda nekih 100.000 godina,
16:01
and we can compress it down to a thousand years --
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i možemo ga suzbiti na tisuću godina --
16:04
and maybe even in the next 100 years.
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ili možda čak u slijedećih 100 godina.
16:07
These are choices
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Ovo su odluke
16:09
that your grandchildren,
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koje će vaši unuci,
16:11
or their grandchildren,
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ili njihovi unuci,
16:13
are going to have before them.
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imati pred sobom.
16:16
Will we use these choices
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Hoćemo li koristiti ove odluke
16:19
to make a society that is better,
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kako bi stvorili bolje društvo,
16:22
that is more successful, that is kinder?
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koje je uspješnije, koje je više suosjećajno?
16:25
Or, will we selectively choose different attributes
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Ili ćemo selektivno birati različte atribute
16:28
that we want for some of us
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koje želimo za samo neke od nas
16:30
and not for others of us?
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a ne za ostale?
16:32
Will we make a society
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Hoćemo li stvoriti društvo
16:35
that is more boring and more uniform,
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koje je dosadno i više uniformirano,
16:38
or more robust and more versatile?
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ili više robusno i svestrano?
16:41
These are the kinds of questions
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Ovo su vrste pitanja
16:43
that we will have to face.
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s kojima ćemo se suočiti.
16:45
And most profoundly of all,
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I najtemeljitije od svega,
16:47
will we ever be able to develop the wisdom,
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da li ćemo ikada moći razviti mudrost,
16:50
and to inherit the wisdom,
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i naslijediti mudrost,
16:52
that we'll need to make these choices wisely?
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koja će nam trebati kako bi ove odluke mudro donijeli?
16:55
For better or worse,
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Za bolje ili lošije,
16:57
and sooner than you may think,
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i prije nego što mislite,
16:59
these choices will be up to us.
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ove će odluke biti na nama.
17:02
Thank you.
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Hvala.
17:04
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Harvey Fineberg - Health policy expertHarvey Fineberg studies medical decisionmaking -- from how we roll out new medical technology, to how we cope with new illnesses and threatened epidemics.
Why you should listen
As president of the Institute of Medicine, Harvey Fineberg thinks deeply about new medicine, both its broad possibilities and the moral and philosophical questions that each new treatment brings. How do we decide which treatment to use in a tricky case -- both individually and as a community? Is it fair that the richest hospitals get the best healthcare? Who should bear the risk (and gain the reward) of trying the newest treatments?
Fineberg helped found and served as president of the Society for Medical Decision Making and also served as consultant to the World Health Organization. He was provost of Harvard from 1997 to 2001, following thirteen years as Dean of the Harvard School of Public Health. He has devoted most of his academic career to the fields of health policy and medical decision making. His past research has focused on the process of policy development and implementation, assessment of medical technology, evaluation and use of vaccines, and dissemination of medical innovations.
Harvey Fineberg | Speaker | TED.com