TEDGlobal 2009
Misha Glenny: The real story of McMafia -- how global crime networks work
Misha Glenny istražuje globalne mreže kriminala
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Novinar Misha Glenny više godina hrabro istražuje mreže organiziranog kriminala po cijelom Svijetu, koji je narastao na procijenjenih 15% svjetske ekonomije. Od ruske mafije, do golemih kartela droge, njegovi izvori nisu samo službenici obavještajnih i zakonodavnih službi nego i članovi kriminalnog miljea.
Misha Glenny - Underworld investigator
Journalist Misha Glenny leaves no stone unturned (and no failed state unexamined) in his excavation of criminal globalization. Full bio
Journalist Misha Glenny leaves no stone unturned (and no failed state unexamined) in his excavation of criminal globalization. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
These are grim economic times,
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Teška su vremena za ekonomiju
00:15
fellow TEDsters, grim economic times indeed.
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kolege TEDovci, zaista teška vremena.
00:18
And so, I would like to cheer you up
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I zato bih vas oraspoložio
00:21
with one of the great, albeit largely unknown,
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sa jednim od najvećih, makar ne previše poznatim,
00:24
commercial success stories
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komercijalnim uspjehom
00:26
of the past 20 years.
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zadnjih 20 godina.
00:28
Comparable, in its own very peculiar way,
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Usporediv, na svoj poseban način,
00:31
to the achievements of Microsoft or Google.
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sa uspjesima Microsofta ili Googlea.
00:34
And it's an industry which has bucked the current recession
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I to je industrija koja je izbjegla recesiju
00:37
with equanimity.
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sa lakoćom.
00:39
I refer to organized crime.
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Pričam o organiziranom kriminalu.
00:42
Now organized crime has been around
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Organizirani kriminal postoji
00:44
for a very long time, I hear you say,
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već jako dugo, čujem kako govorite.
00:47
and these would be wise words, indeed.
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I to je zaista istina.
00:49
But in the last two decades,
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Ali u zadnja dva desetljeća
00:52
it has experienced an unprecedented expansion,
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zabilježio je neviđenu ekspanziju.
00:55
now accounting for roughly 15 percent
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Sada predstavlja otprilike 15 posto
00:59
of the world's GDP.
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svjetskog BDP-a.
01:01
I like to call it the Global Shadow Economy,
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Ja ga zovem Globalna Siva Ekonomija.
01:04
or McMafia, for short.
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ili skraćeno, McMafija.
01:07
So what triggered this extraordinary growth
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Što je potaklo ovaj izvanredan rast
01:10
in cross-border crime?
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prekograničnog kriminala?
01:12
Well, of course, there is globalization,
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Naravno, imamo globalizaciju,
01:14
technology, communications, all that stuff,
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tehnologiju, komunikacije, i sve to,
01:17
which we'll talk about a little bit later.
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o čemu ćemo pričati kasnije.
01:20
But first, I would like to take you back
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Ali prvo bih vas vratio
01:23
to this event:
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na slijedeći događaj.
01:25
the collapse of communism.
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Pad komunizma.
01:27
All across Eastern Europe, a most momentous episode
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U cijeloj istočnoj Europi, jako značajan događaj
01:31
in our post-war history.
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u posljeratnoj povijesti.
01:33
Now it's time for full disclosure.
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Vrijeme je da se razotkrijem.
01:36
This event meant a great deal to me personally.
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Ovaj događaj je puno značio za mene osobno.
01:39
I had started smuggling books across the Iron Curtain
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Počeo sam krijumčariti knjige preko željezne zavjese
01:43
to Democratic opposition groups in Eastern Europe,
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demokratskim oporbenim grupama u istočnoj Europi,
01:45
like Solidarity in Poland,
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kao Solidarnost u Poljskoj,
01:47
when I was in my teens.
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dok sam bio tinejđer.
01:49
I then started writing about Eastern Europe,
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Tada sam počeo pisati o istočnoj Europi,
01:53
and eventually I became the BBC's chief correspondent for the region,
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i konačno sam postao glavni dopisnik BBCa za regiju.
01:57
which is what I was doing in 1989.
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To sam radio 1989.
02:01
And so when 425 million people
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I zato kad je 425 milijona ljudi
02:05
finally won the right
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napokon dobilo pravo
02:07
to choose their own governments,
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izabrati svoju vladu
02:09
I was ecstatic,
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bio sam presretan.
02:12
but I was also a touch worried
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Ali također sam bio malo zabrinut
02:14
about some of the nastier things
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oko nekih opasnijih stvari
02:16
lurking behind the wall.
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koje su virile iza zida.
02:18
It wasn't long, for example,
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Nije trebalo dugo, na primjer,
02:20
before ethnic nationalism
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da etnički nacionalizam
02:22
reared its bloody head
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proviri svoju krvavu glavu
02:24
in Yugoslavia.
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u Jugoslaviji.
02:26
And amongst the chaos,
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I usred kaosa,
02:28
amidst the euphoria,
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usred euforije,
02:30
it took me a little while to understand
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malo mi je trebalo da shvatim
02:32
that some of the people who had wielded power
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da su neki ljudi koji su rukovali vlašću
02:35
before 1989, in Eastern Europe,
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prije 1989., u istočnoj Europi,
02:39
continued to do so after the revolutions there.
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nastavili sa time nakon revolucija.
02:43
Obviously there were characters like this.
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Naravno, imali smo ovakve likove.
02:47
But there were also some more unexpected people
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Ali imali smo i drugih neočekivanih ljudi
02:51
who played a critical role in what was going on in Eastern Europe.
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koji su odigrali važne uloge u događajima u istočnoj Europi.
02:55
Like this character. Remember these guys?
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Kao ovaj lik. Sjećate se ovih tipova?
02:58
They used to win the gold medals in weightlifting
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Prije su dobivali zlatne medalje u dizanju utega
03:00
and wrestling, every four years in the Olympics,
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i hrvanju, svake četiri godine na Olimpijskim igrama.
03:03
and they were the great celebrities of communism,
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I bili su slavne ličnosti komunizma.
03:06
with a fabulous lifestyle to go with it.
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Sa pripadajućim basnoslovnim stilom života.
03:09
They used to get great apartments in the center of town,
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Dobivali su velike stanove u centru grada.
03:11
casual sex on tap,
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Usputan seks na račun.
03:13
and they could travel to the West very freely,
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I mogli su slobodno putovati na zapad,
03:16
which was a great luxury at the time.
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što je bio veliki luksuz u ono vrijeme.
03:19
It may come as a surprise, but they played a critical role
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Možda vam zvuči čudno, ali oni su igrali značajnu ulogu
03:23
in the emergence of the market economy
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u nastanku tržišnog gospodarstva
03:25
in Eastern Europe.
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u istočnoj Europi.
03:27
Or as I like to call them, they are
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Ili kako ih ja zovem, oni su
03:29
the midwives of capitalism.
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babice kapitalizma.
03:31
Here are some of those same weightlifters
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Evo nekih od tih istih dizača utega
03:34
after their 1989 makeover.
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nakon 1989.
03:37
Now in Bulgaria --
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U Bugarskoj,
03:40
this photograph was taken in Bulgaria --
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ovo je uslikano u Bugarskoj,
03:42
when communism collapsed all over Eastern Europe,
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kad je komunizam pao u posvuda u istočnoj Europi
03:45
it wasn't just communism;
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nije pao samo komunizam,
03:47
it was the state that collapsed as well.
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pala je i država.
03:49
That means your police force wasn't working.
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To znači da policija nije radila.
03:51
The court system wasn't functioning properly.
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Sudstvo nije funkcioniralo kako treba.
03:54
So what was a business man in the brave new world
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Što je poslovni čovjek u vrlom novom Svijetu
03:59
of East European capitalism going to do
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istočno europskog kapitalizma trebao napraviti
04:01
to make sure that his contracts would be honored?
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kako bi osigurao da će njegovi ugovori biti ispoštovani?
04:05
Well, he would turn to people who were called, rather prosaically
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Okrenuo bi se ljudima koje sociolozi zovu, poprilično suhoparno,
04:08
by sociologists, privatized law enforcement agencies.
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privatizirane agencije za provedbu zakona.
04:12
We prefer to know them as the mafia.
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Mi ih radije zovemo mafija.
04:16
And in Bulgaria, the mafia was soon joined
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U Bugarskoj, mafija se uskoro spojila
04:19
with 14,000 people
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sa 14 tisuća ljudi
04:21
who were sacked from their jobs in the security services
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koji su otpušteni sa svojih poslova u sigurnosnim službama
04:25
between 1989 and 1991.
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između 1989. i 1991.
04:27
Now, when your state is collapsing,
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Dakle, država se raspada,
04:31
your economy is heading south at a rate of knots,
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gospodarstvo je ubrzano krenulo prema dolje,
04:34
the last people you want coming on to the labor market
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zadnji ljudi koje želite da dođu na burzu rada
04:37
are 14,000 men and women whose chief skills
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su 14 tisuća muškaraca i žena sa jakim kvalifikacijama
04:40
are surveillance,
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u nadzoru,
04:42
are smuggling, building underground networks
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krijumčarenju, gradnji podzemnih mreža,
04:45
and killing people.
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i ubijanju ljudi.
04:48
But that's what happened all over Eastern Europe.
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Ali to se desilo po cijeloj istočnoj Europi.
04:51
Now, when I was working in the 1990s,
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Kad sam radio 1990-tih
04:56
I spent most of the time covering
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većinu vremena sam pratio
04:59
the appalling conflict in Yugoslavia.
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grozan sukob u Jugoslaviji.
05:02
And I couldn't help notice
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I nisam mogao ne vidjeti
05:04
that the people who were perpetrating the appalling atrocities,
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da ljudi koji su izvršavali strašne zločine,
05:08
the paramilitary organizations,
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paravojne organizacije,
05:11
were actually the same people running
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su zapravo isti ljudi koji su vodili
05:13
the organized criminal syndicates.
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mreže organiziranog kriminala.
05:16
And I came to think that behind the violence
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I palo mi je na pamet da iza nasilja
05:20
lay a sinister criminal enterprise.
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stoji mračno kriminalno gospodarstvo.
05:23
And so I resolved to travel around the world
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I zato sam odlučio da ću putovati oko svijeta
05:27
examining this global criminal underworld
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i istraživati ovo globalno kriminalno podzemlje
05:30
by talking to policemen,
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pričajući sa policajcima,
05:32
by talking to victims, by talking to consumers
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pričajući sa žrtvama, pričajući sa konzumentima
05:35
of illicit goods and services.
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nezakonitih roba i usluga.
05:37
But above all else, by talking to the gangsters themselves.
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Ali iznad svega drugog, pričajući sa samim gangsterima.
05:42
And the Balkans was a fabulous place to start.
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Balkan je bio sjajno mjesto za početak.
05:45
Why? Well of course
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Zašto? Pa naravno
05:47
there was the issue of law and order collapsing,
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postojalo je pitanje propadanja reda i zakona.
05:49
but also, as they say in the retail trade,
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Ali također, kako kažu u trgovini na malo,
05:51
it's location, location, location.
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važna je lokacija, lokacija, lokacija.
05:55
And what I noticed at the beginning of my research
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I ono što sam primjetio na početku mojih istraživanja
05:57
that the Balkans had turned into a vast transit zone
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jest da je Balkan postao velika tranzitna zona
06:02
for illicit goods and services coming from all over the world.
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za nezakonite robe i usluge iz cijelog Svijeta.
06:05
Heroin, cocaine,
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Heroin, kokain,
06:07
women being trafficked into prostitution
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prodaja žena u prostituciju
06:10
and precious minerals.
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i dragocjeni minerali.
06:12
And where were they heading?
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A kuda su išli?
06:14
The European Union, which by now
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U Europsku Uniju, koja je tada
06:16
was beginning to reap the benefits of globalization,
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počinjala žeti blagodati globalizacije.
06:20
transforming it into
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Pretvarajući se tako
06:22
the most affluent consumer market in history,
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u najbogatije potrošačko tržište u povijesti,
06:25
eventually comprising some 500 million people.
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na kraju se sastojeći od 500 milijuna ljudi.
06:28
And a significant minority
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I značajna manjina
06:31
of those 500 million people
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od tih 500 milijuna ljudi
06:33
like to spend some of their leisure time and spare cash
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voli trošiti svoje slobodno vrijeme i novac
06:36
sleeping with prostitutes,
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spavajući sa prostitutkama,
06:38
sticking 50 Euro notes up their nose
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gurajući novčanice od 50 Eura u nos
06:41
and employing illegal migrant laborers.
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i zapošljavajući nezakonite migrantske radnike.
06:44
Now, organized crime in a globalizing world
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Organizirani kriminal u globalističkom Svijetu
06:48
operates in the same way as any other business.
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djeluje na isti način kao i drugi poslovi.
06:50
It has zones of production,
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Ima zone proizvodnje,
06:53
like Afghanistan and Columbia.
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kao Afganistan i Kolumbija.
06:56
It has zones of distribution,
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Ima zone distribucije,
06:58
like Mexico and the Balkans.
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kao Meksiko i Balkan.
07:01
And then, of course, it has zones of consumption,
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I naravno, ima zone potrošnje,
07:05
like the European Union, Japan
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kao Europska Unija, Japan
07:07
and of course, the United States.
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i naravno, Sjedinjene Države.
07:10
The zones of production and distribution
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Zone proizvodnje i distribucije
07:13
tend to lie in the developing world,
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obično leže u zemljama u razvoju.
07:16
and they are often threatened by appalling violence
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I one su obično izložene groznom nasilju
07:20
and bloodshed.
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i krvoproliću.
07:22
Take Mexico, for example.
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Uzmimo Meksiko.
07:24
Six thousand people killed there in the last 18 months
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Šest tisuća ljudi ubijeno je tamo u zadnjih 18 mjeseci
07:28
as a direct consequence of the cocaine trade.
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kao direktna posljedica trgovine kokainom.
07:32
But what about the Democratic Republic of Congo?
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A što sa Demokratskom Republikom Kongo?
07:36
Since 1998, five million people have died there.
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Od 1998., tamo je umrlo pet milijona ljudi.
07:42
It's not a conflict you read about much in the newspapers,
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O tom se sukobu ne čita puno u novinama.
07:44
but it's the biggest conflict on this planet
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Ali to je najveći sukob na ovom planetu
07:47
since the Second World War.
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od Drugog svjetskog rata.
07:49
And why is it? Because mafias from all around the world
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I zašto postoji? Jer mafije iz cijelog svijeta
07:52
cooperate with local paramilitaries
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surađuju sa lokalnim paravojskama
07:55
in order to seize the supplies
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kako bi se dokopali zaliha
07:58
of the rich mineral resources
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bogatih mineralnih resursa
08:00
of the region.
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te regije.
08:02
In the year 2000, 80 percent of the world's coltan
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Godine 2000., 80 posto svjetskog koltana
08:06
was sourced to the killing fields
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je dolazilo iz polja smrti
08:08
of the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.
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istoka Demokratske Republike Kongo.
08:12
Now, coltan you will find in almost every mobile phone,
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Koltan možete naći u svakom mobitelu,
08:16
in almost every laptop
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u skoro svakom laptopu
08:18
and games console.
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i igraćoj konzoli.
08:20
The Congolese war lords were selling this stuff to the mafia
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Kongolski gospodari rata su to prodavali mafiji
08:23
in exchange for weapons,
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u zamjenu za oružje.
08:25
and the mafia would then sell it on to Western markets.
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A mafija je dalje prodavala na Zapadno tržište.
08:29
And it is this Western desire
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I ta zapadnjačka strast
08:31
to consume
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za potrošnjom
08:33
that is the primary driver
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je glavni pokretač
08:36
of international organized crime.
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međunarodnog organiziranog kriminala.
08:39
Now, let me show you some of my friends in action,
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Da vam pokažem neke od mojih prijatelja u akciji,
08:43
caught conveniently on film by the Italian police,
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snimljenih od strane talijanske policije
08:46
and smuggling duty-not-paid cigarettes.
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dok krijumčare neocarinjene cigarete.
08:49
Now, cigarettes out the factory gate are very cheap.
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Cigarete sa tvorničkom cijenom su jako jeftine.
08:52
The European Union then imposes the highest taxes on them in the world.
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Europska Unija tada na njih nameće najviši porez na svijetu.
08:56
So if you can smuggle them into the E.U.,
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Dakle ako ih možeš prokrijumčariti u E.U.
08:59
there are very handsome profits to be made,
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možeš zaraditi velike svote.
09:02
and I want to show you this to demonstrate
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I želim vam ovo pokazati kako bih demonstrirao
09:04
the type of resources available to these groups.
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koliko resursa imaju ove grupe.
09:07
This boat is worth one million Euros when it's new.
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Ovaj brod vrijedi milijon Eura kad je nov.
09:11
And it's the fastest thing on European waters.
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I najbrži je u Europskim vodama.
09:15
From 1994, for seven years,
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Od 1994., već sedam godina,
09:18
20 of these boats
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20 ovih brodova
09:20
made the trip across the Adriatic,
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prešlo je Jadransko more
09:23
from Montenegro to Italy, every single night.
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iz Crne Gore u Italiju, svaku noć.
09:26
And as a consequence of this trade,
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I kao posljedica ove trgovine
09:28
Britain alone lost eight billion dollars in revenue.
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samo Britanija je izgubila osam bilijuna dolara prihoda.
09:33
And instead that money went to underwrite the wars in Yugoslavia
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Umjesto toga, taj novac je otišao obilježiti ratove u Jugoslaviji
09:37
and line the pockets of unscrupulous individuals.
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i podstaviti džepove beskrupuloznih pojedinaca.
09:41
Now Italian police, when this trade started,
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Talijanska policija je, kad je ova trgovina počela,
09:44
had just two boats which could go at the same speed.
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imala samo dva broda koja su mogla ići istom brzinom.
09:48
And this is very important, because the only way you can catch these guys
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I ovo je jako važno, jer jedini način na koji možeš uloviti ove tipove
09:50
is if they run out of gas.
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je ako ostanu bez goriva.
09:53
Sometimes the gangsters would bring with them
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Ponekad bi gangsteri poveli sa sobom
09:55
women being trafficked into prostitution,
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ženu kojom se trguje u prostituciju.
09:58
and if the police intervened, they would hurl
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I kad bi policija intervenirala, oni bi
10:00
the women into the sea
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bacili ženu u more
10:03
so that the police had to go and save them from drowning,
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kako bi ju policija morala spasiti od utapanja,
10:05
rather than chasing the bad guys.
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umjesto da ih hvata.
10:09
So I have shown you this to demonstrate
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Pokazao sam vam ovo kako bih demonstrirao
10:12
how many boats, how many vessels it takes
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koliko brodova, koliko plovila treba
10:14
to catch one of these guys.
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kako bi ulovili jednog od ovih tipova.
10:16
And the answer is six vessels.
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Odgovor je šest plovila.
10:18
And remember, 20 of these speed boats
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Zapamtite, 20 ovih glisera
10:21
were coming across the Adriatic
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je dolazilo preko Jadrana
10:23
every single night.
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svake noći.
10:25
So what were these guys doing with all the money they were making?
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I što su ovi momci radili sa svim tim novcem?
10:29
Well, this is where we come to globalization,
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Tu dolazimo do globalizacije
10:33
because that was not just the deregulation of global trade.
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jer to nije samo deregulacija globalne trgovine.
10:36
It was the liberalization of international financial markets.
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To je liberalizacija međunarodnih novčanih tržišta.
10:39
And boy, did that make it easy
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A bome su olakšali
10:42
for the money launderers.
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peračima novca.
10:44
The last two decades have been the champagne era
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Zadnjih dva desetljeća bili su zlatno doba
10:47
for dirty lucre.
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prljave dobiti.
10:49
In the 1990s, we saw financial centers around the world
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1990-tih smo vidjeli novčane centre oko Svijeta
10:53
competing for their business,
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kako se natječu za njihove poslove.
10:56
and there was simply no effective mechanism
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I jednostavno nije bilo učinkovitog mehanizma
10:58
to prevent money laundering.
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za sprječavanje pranja novca.
11:00
And a lot of licit banks were also happy
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I puno legalnih banaka je također rado
11:03
to accept deposits
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primalo depozite
11:06
from very dubious sources
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iz vrlo sumnjivih izvora
11:08
without questions being asked.
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bez ikakvih pitanja.
11:11
But at the heart of this, is the offshore banking network.
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Ali u srcu ovoga, je mreža offshore banaka.
11:15
Now these things
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Ove stvari su
11:18
are an essential part of the money laundering parade,
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najvažniji dio ove parade pranja novca.
11:21
and if you want to do something about illegal tax evasion
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I želiš li spriječiti nezakonito izbjegavanje poreza
11:25
and transnational organized crime, money laundering,
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i međunarnodni organizirani kriminal, pranje novca
11:29
you have to get rid of them.
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moraš ih se rješiti.
11:31
On a positive note, we at last have someone in the White House
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Pozitivno je da napokon imamo nekoga u Bijeloj kući
11:34
who has consistently spoken out
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tko dosljedno govori
11:37
against these corrosive entities.
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protiv ovih nagrizajućih jedinki.
11:40
And if anyone is concerned about what I believe
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I ako je itko zabrinut o onome za što ja vjerujem
11:44
is the necessity for
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da je nužno
11:47
new legislation, regulation, effective regulation,
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novi zakoni, učinkovita regulacija,
11:50
I say, let's take a look at Bernie Madoff,
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onda je to Bernie Madoff,
11:54
who is now going to be spending the rest of his life in jail.
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koji će ostatak svog života provesti u zatvoru.
11:58
Bernie Madoff stole 65 billion dollars.
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Bernie Madoff je ukrao 65 bilijuna dolara.
12:04
That puts him up there on the Olympus of gangsters
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To ga stavlja na Olimp gangstera
12:07
with the Colombian cartels
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zajedno sa kolumbijskim kartelima,
12:09
and the major Russian crime syndicates,
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i najvećim ruskim mafijama.
12:12
but he did this for decades
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Ali on je to radio desetljećima
12:14
in the very heart of Wall Street,
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u srcu Wall streeta.
12:16
and no regulator picked up on it.
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I nijedan regulator nije ništa zapazio.
12:19
So how many other Madoffs are there on Wall Street
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Koliko još Madoffa ima u Wall streetu,
12:22
or in the city of London,
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ili u Londonu,
12:24
fleecing ordinary folk
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dok muzu pošten narod,
12:26
and money laundering?
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i peru novac?
12:28
Well I can tell you, it's quite a few of them.
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Ja vam mogu reći, ima ih popriličan broj.
12:32
Let me go on to the 101 of international organized crime now.
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Da vam objasnim osnove međunarodnog organiziranog kriminala.
12:36
And that is narcotics. Our second marijuana farm photograph for the morning.
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A to su narkotici. Druga slika farme marihuane danas.
12:40
This one, however, is in central British Columbia
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Ova je iz centralne Britanske Kolumbije
12:43
where I photographed it.
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gdje sam ju uslikao.
12:45
It's one of the tens of thousands
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To je jedna od desetaka tisuća
12:47
of mom-and-pop grow-ops in B.C.
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obiteljskih farmi u Britanskoj Kolumbiji
12:50
which ensure that over five percent
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koja omogućuje da preko pet posto
12:53
of the province's GDP is accounted for by this trade.
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BDP-a ove provincije dolazi iz ove trgovine.
12:57
Now, I was taken by inspector Brian Cantera,
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Inspektor Brian Cantera
13:02
of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police,
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iz Kraljevske kanadske policijske konjice
13:04
to a cavernous warehouse east of Vancouver
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me doveo u pećinsko skladište istočno od Vancouvera
13:06
to see some of the goods which are regularly confiscated
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da vidim robu koja se redovito oduzima
13:10
by the RCMP
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od krijumčara
13:12
from the smugglers who are sending it,
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koji ju šalju,
13:14
of course, down south to the United States
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naravno, južno u Sjedinjene Države
13:17
where there is an insatiable market
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gdje je nezasitno tržište
13:19
for B.C. Bud, as it's called,
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za B.C. Bud (Pup), kako ga zovu
13:22
in part because it's marketed as organic,
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djelom zato što se reklamira kao organsko,
13:24
which of course goes down very well in California.
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što dobro prolazi u Kaliforniji.
13:28
(Laughter)
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(Smjeh)
13:30
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
13:31
Now, even by the police's admission,
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I policija priznaje da
13:34
this makes not a dent in the profits, really,
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veliki izvoznici ove zaplijene
13:39
of the major exporters.
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niti ne osjete.
13:41
Since the beginning of globalization,
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Od početaka globalizacije
13:43
the global narcotics market has expanded enormously.
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globalno tržište narkotika je enormno naraslo.
13:47
There has, however, been no concomitant increase
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Međutim, nije bilo pratećeg rasta
13:50
in the resources available
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resursa dostupnih
13:53
to police forces.
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snagama policije.
13:55
This, however, may all be about to change,
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Ovo se sve možda promjeni.
14:00
because something very strange is going on.
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Jer nešto jako čudno se dešava.
14:02
The United Nations recognized
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Ujedinjeni narodi su prepoznali
14:04
earlier this -- it was last month actually --
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prije mjesec dana,
14:07
that Canada has become a key area of distribution and production
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da je Kanada postala ključno područje za distribuciju i proizvodnju
14:13
of ecstasy and other synthetic drugs.
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ekstazija i drugih sintetičnih droga.
14:17
Interestingly, the market share
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Zanimljivo, tržišni udio
14:19
of heroin and cocaine is going down,
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heroina i kokaina opada
14:22
because the pills are getting ever better at reproducing their highs.
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jer pilule počinju djelovati sve bolje.
14:27
Now that is a game changer,
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Ovo mjenja cijelu igru.
14:31
because it shifts production away from the developing world
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Jer prebacuje proizvodnju iz zemalja u razvoju
14:35
and into the Western world.
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u zapadnjački svijet.
14:39
When that happens, it is a trend
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Kad se to dogodi to je trend
14:41
which is set to overwhelm our policing capacity in the West.
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koji može pregaziti mogućnosti naše politike tu na zapadu.
14:45
The drugs policy which we've had in place for 40 years
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Politika droga koju imamo već 40 godina
14:49
is long overdue for a very serious rethink,
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davno je morala donijeti važne promjene,
14:54
in my opinion.
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po mom mišljenju.
14:56
Now, the recession.
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Recesija.
14:58
Well, organized crime has already adapted
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Organizirani kriminal se već prilagodio
15:00
very well to the recession.
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vrlo dobro za recesiju.
15:02
Not surprising, the most opportunistic industry
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Nije čudno, najoportunističkija industrija
15:04
in the whole world.
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na svijetu.
15:06
And it has no rules to its regulatory system.
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I nema pravila u svojem sustavu regulacija.
15:10
Except, of course, it has two business risks:
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Osim, naravno, što ima dva poslovna rizika,
15:14
arrest by law enforcement,
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uhićenje zakonom,
15:16
which is, frankly, the least of their worries,
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što je, iskreno, njihova najmanja briga,
15:18
and competition from other groups,
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i konkurencija ostalih grupa,
15:21
i.e. a bullet in the back of the head.
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ili metak u glavu.
15:23
What they've done is they've shifted their operations.
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Ono što su napravili je pomak svojih operacija.
15:26
People don't smoke as much dope, or visit prostitutes quite so frequently
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Ljudi više ne puše toliko droge, i ne idu prostitutkama tako često
15:30
during a recession.
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za vrijeme recesije.
15:32
And so instead, they have invaded financial
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I tako su ušli u novčani
15:34
and corporate crime in a big way,
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i poslovni kriminal na velika vrata,
15:36
but above all, two sectors,
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ali iznad svega, dva područja,
15:38
and that is counterfeit goods
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a to su falsificiranje robe
15:41
and cybercrime.
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i računalni kriminal.
15:43
And it's been terribly successful.
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I jako su uspješni.
15:45
I would like to introduce you to Mr. Pringle.
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Upoznao bih vas sa G. Pringleom.
15:48
Or perhaps I should say, more accurately, Señor Pringle.
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Ili da kažem, točnije, Señor Pringle.
15:52
I was introduced to this bit of kit by a Brazilian cybercriminal.
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Brazilski računalni kriminalac me upoznao sa tom opremom.
15:56
We sat in a car on the Avenue Paulista
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Sjeli smo u automobil na aveniju Paulista
15:58
in São Paulo, together.
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u São Paulu, zajedno.
16:00
Hooked it up to my laptop,
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Spojio ju je sa mojim laptopom,
16:02
and within about five minutes he had penetrated
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i za pet minuta ušao je
16:05
the computer security system
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u računalni sigurnosni sustav
16:07
of a major Brazilian bank.
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jedne velike brazilske banke.
16:10
It's really not that difficult.
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Nije to tako teško.
16:12
And it's actually much easier because
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I puno je lakše jer
16:15
the fascinating thing about cybercrime
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zanimljiva star kod računalnog kriminala
16:17
is that it's not so much the technology.
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je da stvar nije toliko u tehnologiji.
16:21
The key to cybercrime is what we call social engineering.
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Ključ kod računalnog kriminala je u socijalnom inženjeringu.
16:25
Or to use the technical term for it,
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Ili da se tehnički izrazim,
16:27
there's one born every minute.
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budale su na svakom koraku.
16:30
You would not believe how easy it is
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Ne biste vjerovali koliko je lagano
16:33
to persuade people to do things with their computers
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nagovoriti ljude da rade na svom računalu
16:36
which are objectively not in their interest.
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stvari koje im nisu u interesu.
16:39
And it was very soon
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I vrlo su brzo
16:41
when the cybercriminals learned that the quickest way to do this,
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računalni kriminalci naučili da je to najlakše napraviti,
16:43
of course, the quickest way to a person's wallet
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naravno, najbrže dođeš do nečijeg novčanika
16:47
is through the promise of sex and love.
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preko obećanja seksa i ljubavi.
16:50
I expect some of you remember the ILOVEYOU virus,
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Vjerujem da se neki sjećaju Volim-Te virusa,
16:53
one of the very great worldwide viruses that came.
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jednog od najvećih svjetskih virusa.
16:57
I was very fortunate when the ILOVEYOU virus came out,
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Imao sam sreće kad je Volim-Te virus izašao.
17:00
because the first person I received it from
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Jer prva osoba od koje sam ga dobio
17:03
was an ex-girlfriend of mine.
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je bila moja bivša djevojka.
17:05
Now, she harbored all sorts of sentiments and emotions towards me at the time,
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Ona je gajila razne osjećaje prema meni u to vrijeme
17:10
but love was not amongst them.
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ali ljubav nije bio jedan od njih.
17:12
(Laughter)
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(Smjeh)
17:14
And so as soon as I saw this drop into my inbox,
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I zato čim sam vidio to u svojem pretincu za poštu
17:18
I dispatched it hastily to the recycle bin
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bacio sam ga odmah u kantu za smeće,
17:21
and spared myself a very nasty infection.
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i spasio se od gadne infekcije.
17:26
So, cybercrime, do watch out for it.
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Dakle, računalni kriminal, pazite na njega.
17:30
One thing that we do know that the Internet is doing
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Ono što znamo da Internet radi
17:32
is the Internet is assisting these guys.
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je, da pomaže ovim tipovima.
17:35
These are mosquitos who carry the malarial parasite
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To su komarci koji prenose parazit malarije
17:38
which infests our blood when the mosy has had a free meal
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4000
Koji zarazi našu krv kad komarac dobije besplatan obrok
17:42
at our expense.
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na naš račun.
17:44
Now, Artesunate is a very effective drug
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Artesunat je jako učinkovita droga
17:47
at destroying the parasite in the early days
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kod uništavanja parazita u ranim danima
17:50
of infection.
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infekcije.
17:52
But over the past year or so,
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Ali zadnjih godinu dana
17:54
researchers in Cambodia have discovered
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istraživači u Kambođi su otkrili
17:57
that what's happening is
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da se dešava
18:00
the malarial parasite is developing a resistance.
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da parazit malarije razvija otpornost.
18:03
And they fear that the reason why it's developing a resistance
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3000
I boje se da je razlog razvijanja otpornosti
18:06
is because Cambodians can't afford the drugs on the commercial market,
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taj da si Kambođani ne mogu priuštiti lijek na trgovačkom tržištu,
18:10
and so they buy it from the Internet.
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pa ga kupuju sa Interneta.
18:13
And these pills contain only low doses
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A te pilule imaju samo male doze
18:15
of the active ingredient.
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aktivnog sastojka.
18:17
Which is why
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Zato se dešava da
18:19
the parasite is beginning to develop a resistance.
375
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parazit počinje razvijati otpornost.
18:23
The reason I say this
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Razlog zašto vam ovo pričam
18:25
is because we have to know
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je taj da moramo znati
18:27
that organized crime
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da organizirani kriminal
18:29
impacts all sorts of areas of our lives.
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utječe na sva područja naših života.
18:32
You don't have to sleep with prostitutes
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Ne trebate spavati sa prostitutkom
18:35
or take drugs
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ili uzimati droge
18:37
in order to have a relationship with organized crime.
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kako bi imali vezu sa organiziranim kriminalom.
18:39
They affect our bank accounts.
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Oni utječu na naš bankovni račun.
18:41
They affect our communications, our pension funds.
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Oni utječu na komunikacije, na mirovinske fondove.
18:43
They even affect the food that we eat
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Čak utječu na hranu koju jedemo
18:47
and our governments.
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i na vlade.
18:49
This is no longer an issue
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Ovo više nije problem
18:52
of Sicilians from Palermo and New York.
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Sicilijanaca iz Palerma i New Yorka.
18:55
There is no romance involved with gangsters
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Nema romantike kod gangstera
18:58
in the 21st Century.
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21. stoljeća.
19:00
This is a mighty industry,
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To je snažna industrija
19:03
and it creates instability and violence
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i ona stvara nestabilnost i nasilje
19:06
wherever it goes.
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gdje god dođe.
19:08
It is a major economic force
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To je snažna gospodarska sila
19:10
and we need to take it very, very seriously.
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i moramo ju uzeti jako, jako ozbiljno.
19:14
It's been a privilege talking to you.
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Bila mi je čast pričati pred vama.
19:16
Thank you very much.
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Puno vam hvala.
19:18
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Misha Glenny - Underworld investigatorJournalist Misha Glenny leaves no stone unturned (and no failed state unexamined) in his excavation of criminal globalization.
Why you should listen
In minute detail, Misha Glenny's 2008 book McMafia illuminates the byzantine outlines of global organized crime. Whether it's pot smugglers in British Columbia, oil/weapons/people traffickers in Eastern Europe, Japanese yakuza or Nigerian scammers, to research this magisterial work Glenny penetrated the convoluted, globalized and franchised modern underworld -- often at considerable personal risk.
The book that resulted is an exhaustive look at an unseen industry that Glenny believes may account for 15% of the world's GDP.
Legal society ignores this world at its peril, but Glenny suggests that conventional law enforcement might not be able to combat a problem whose roots lie in global instability.
While covering the Central Europe beat for the Guardian and the BBC, Glenny wrote several acclaimed books on the fall of Yugoslavia and the rise of the Balkan nations. He's researching a new book on cybercrime, of which he says: "The key to cybercrime is what we call social engineering. Or to use the technical term for it, there's one born every minute."
Watch TED's exclusive video Q&A with Glenny: "Behind the Scenes of McMafia" >>
Misha Glenny | Speaker | TED.com