TED2010
Sebastian Wernicke: Lies, damned lies and statistics (about TEDTalks)
Laži, proklete laži i statistika (o TEDTalks)
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U briljantnoj ironičnoj analizi, Sebastian Wernicke koristi statističke alate za TEDTalks, kako bi napravio metriku za stvaranje "optimalnog TEDTalk-a" temeljenog na ocjenama korisnika. Kako ih ocjenjujete? "Iznenađujuće"? "Neuvjerljivo"? Ili jednostavno "Smiješno"?
Sebastian Wernicke - Data scientist
After making a splash in the field of bioinformatics, Sebastian Wernicke moved on to the corporate sphere, where he motivates and manages multidimensional projects. Full bio
After making a splash in the field of bioinformatics, Sebastian Wernicke moved on to the corporate sphere, where he motivates and manages multidimensional projects. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
If you go on the TED website,
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Ako odete na web stranicu TED-a
00:19
you can currently find there
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trenutno tamo možete pronaći
00:21
over a full week of TEDTalk videos,
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TED Talk videa za cijeli tjedan gledanja,
00:24
over 1.3 million
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preko 1.3 milijuna
00:26
words of transcripts
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riječi u prijepisima
00:28
and millions of user ratings.
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i 2 milijuna ocjena korisnika.
00:30
And that's a huge amount of data.
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To je ogromna količina podataka.
00:33
And it got me wondering:
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Zapitao sam se:
00:35
If you took all this data
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"Ako skupite sve te podatke
00:37
and put it through statistical analysis,
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i stavite ih u statističke analize,
00:39
could you reverse engineer a TEDTalk?
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možete li, obrnuto, iz toga napraviti TED Talk?
00:41
Could you create
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Možete li napraviti
00:43
the ultimate TEDTalk?
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vrhunski TED Talk?
00:45
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(Pljesak)
00:47
And also, could you create
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Također, možete li stvoriti
00:49
the worst possible TEDTalk
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najgori mogući TED Talk
00:51
that they would still let you get away with?
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koji bi vam još uvijek prošao?
00:53
To find this out, I looked at three things:
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Kako bih to otkrio, pogledao sam tri stvari.
00:55
I looked at the topic that you should choose,
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Pogledao sam temu koju biste trebali izabrati.
00:57
I looked at how you should deliver it
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Pogledao sam kako biste to trebali prezentirati
01:00
and the visuals onstage.
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i kako bi to trebalo vizualno izgledati.
01:02
Now, with the topic: There's a whole range of topics you can choose,
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Sada, vezano uz temu – postoji cijeli raspon tema koje možete izabrati,
01:05
but you should choose wisely,
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ali trebate birati mudro,
01:07
because your topic strongly correlates
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jer vaša tema snažno korelira
01:09
with how users will react to your talk.
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s onim kako će korisnici reagirati na vaš Talk.
01:12
Now, to make this more concrete,
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Kako bih ovo konkretizirao,
01:14
let's look at the list of top 10 words
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pogledajmo listu top 10 riječi
01:17
that statistically stick out
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koje se statistički najviše ističu
01:19
in the most favorite TEDTalks
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u najomiljenijim TED Talks
01:21
and in the least favorite TEDTalks.
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i u najmanje omiljenim TED Talks.
01:24
So if you came here
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Ako ćete doći ovdje
01:26
to talk about how French coffee
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i pričati o tome kako će French coffee
01:28
will spread happiness in our brains,
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širiti sreću u vašem mozgu,
01:31
that's a go.
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to će vam proći.
01:33
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(Pljesak)
01:35
Whereas, if you wanted to talk about
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S druge strane, ako biste htjeli pričati
01:37
your project involving
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o svom projektu koji uključuje
01:39
oxygen, girls, aircraft --
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kisik, djevojke, letjelice –
01:41
actually, I would like to hear that talk, (Laughter)
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zapravo, ja bih volio čuti taj govor,
01:43
but statistics say it's not so good.
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ali statistika kaže kako to ne bi bilo dobro.
01:45
Oh, well.
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No, dobro.
01:47
If you generalize this,
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Ako generalizirate ovo,
01:49
the most favorite TEDTalks are those
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najomiljeniji TED Talks su oni
01:51
that feature topics we can connect with,
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s čijim temama se možemo povezati,
01:54
both easily and deeply,
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podjednako lagano i duboko,
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such as happiness, our own body,
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poput sreće, našeg tijela,
01:58
food, emotions.
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hrane, emocija.
02:00
And the more technical topics,
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A više tehničke teme,
02:02
such as architecture, materials and, strangely enough, men,
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poput arhitekture, materijala i, začudo, muškaraca,
02:05
those are not good topics to talk about.
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nisu dobre teme za predavanje.
02:08
How should you deliver your talk?
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Kako biste trebali prezentirati vaš Talk?
02:10
TED is famous for keeping
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TED je poznat po tome što je
02:12
a very sharp eye on the clock,
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jako rigorozan oko vremena
02:14
so they're going to hate me
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zamrzit će me što
02:16
for revealing this, because, actually,
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ovo otkrivam, jer, zapravo,
02:18
you should talk as long as they will let you. (Laughter)
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trebate pričati dokle god vam dopuste,
02:20
Because the most favorite TEDTalks
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jer su najomiljeniji TED Talks,
02:23
are, on average, over 50 percent longer
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prosječno, oko 50% duži
02:25
than the least favorite ones.
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od onih koji su najmanje omiljeni.
02:28
And this holds true for all ranking lists on TED.com
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To je istina za sve ranking liste na TED.com-u
02:30
except if you want to have a talk
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osim ako želite održati Talk
02:32
that's beautiful, inspiring or funny.
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koji je lijep, inspirativan i smiješan.
02:34
Then, you should be brief. (Laughter) But other than that,
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Tada, trebate biti kratki. Ali osim toga,
02:36
talk until they drag you off the stage.
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pričajte dok god vas ne odvuku s pozornice.
02:39
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:41
Now, while ...
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Sada, dok –
02:43
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
02:49
While you're pushing the clock, there's a few rules to obey.
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Dok koristite vrijeme, morate poštivati neka pravila.
02:52
I found these rules out by comparing the statistics
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Pronašao sam ova pravila dok sam uspoređivao statistiku
02:54
of four-word phrases
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fraza od četiri-riječi
02:56
that appear more often in the most favorite TEDTalks
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koje se pojavljuju mnogo češće u najomiljenijim TED Talks,
02:59
as opposed to the least favorite TEDTalks.
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nasuprot najmanje omiljenim TED Talks.
03:01
I'll give you three examples.
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Pokazat ću vam tri primjera.
03:03
First of all, I must, as a speaker,
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Prvo, moram, kao govornik,
03:05
provide a service to the audience and talk about what I will give you,
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pružiti uslugu publici i pričati što ću vam dati,
03:08
instead of saying what I can't have.
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umjesto da pričam o onome što ne mogu imati.
03:10
Secondly, it's imperative
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Drugo, imperativ je
03:12
that you do not cite The New York Times.
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da ne citirate New York Times.
03:14
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
03:16
And finally, it's okay for the speaker -- that's the good news --
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Konačno, u redu je ako govornik – to je dobra vijest –
03:19
to fake intellectual capacity.
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lažira intelektualne sposobnosti.
03:21
If I don't understand something, I can just say, "etc., etc."
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Ako nešto ne razumijem, mogu samo reći "i tako dalje, i tako dalje."
03:24
You'll all stay with me.
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Svi ćete se složiti sa mnom.
03:26
It's perfectly fine.
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To je savršeno u redu.
03:28
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
03:32
Now, let's go to the visuals.
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Sada, pređimo na vizualno.
03:34
The most obvious visual thing on stage is the speaker.
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Najočitija vizualna stvar na pozornici je govornik.
03:37
And analysis shows if you want to be
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Analize pokazuju, ako želite biti
03:39
among the most favorite TED speakers,
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među najomiljenijim TED govornicima,
03:41
you should let your hair grow a little bit longer than average,
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kosa vam mora narasti malo duže nego prosječno,
03:44
make sure you wear your glasses and be slightly more dressed-up
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pobrinite se da nosite svoje naočale i budite malo više dotjerani
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than the average TED speaker.
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nego prosječni TED govornik.
03:49
Slides are okay, though you might consider going for props.
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Slajdovi su u redu, ali mogli biste razmisliti da koristite i rekvizite.
03:52
And now the most important thing,
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Najvažnija stvar je
03:54
that is the mood onstage.
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raspoloženje na pozornici.
03:56
Color plays a very important role.
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Boja ima jako važnu ulogu.
03:58
Color closely correlates
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Boja tijesno korelira
04:00
with the ratings that talks get on the website.
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s ocjenama koje Talks dobiju na web stranici.
04:03
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
04:05
For example, fascinating talks
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Na primjer, fascinantni Talks
04:07
contain a statistically high amount
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sadrže statistički veliku količinu
04:09
of exactly this blue color, (Laughter)
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doslovno ove plave boje,
04:11
much more than the average TEDTalk.
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više nego prosječni TED Talk.
04:13
Ingenious TEDTalks, much more this green color,
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Ingeniozni koriste mnogo više ove zelene boje,
04:15
etc., et.
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i tako dalje, i tako dalje.
04:17
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(Pljesak)
04:24
Now, personally, I think
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Osobno, mislim
04:26
I'm not the first one who has done this analysis,
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da nisam prvi koji je napravio ovu analizu,
04:28
but I'll leave this
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ali ostavit ću to
04:30
to your good judgment.
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vašoj dobroj prosudbi.
04:33
So, now it's time to put it all together
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Sada je vrijeme sve to skupiti
04:35
and design the ultimate TEDTalk.
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i napraviti vrhunski TED Talk.
04:37
Now, since this is TEDActive,
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Kako je ovo TED Active,
04:39
and I learned from my analysis
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naučio sam iz svoje analize
04:41
that I should actually give you something,
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kako bih vam trebao nešto dati,
04:43
I will not impose the ultimate
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neću vam nametnuti vrhunski
04:45
or worst TEDTalk on you,
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ili najgori TED Talk,
04:47
but rather give you a tool to create your own.
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ali ću vam dati alat s kojim možete kreirati sami svoj govor.
04:49
And I call this tool the TEDPad.
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Taj instrument zovem TED Pad
04:52
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
04:55
And the TEDPad is a matrix
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TED Pad je matrica
04:57
of 100 specifically selected,
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100 posebno odabranih,
04:59
highly curated sentences
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visoko organiziranih rečenica
05:02
that you can easily piece together to get your own TEDTalk.
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koje možete lagano zalijepiti zajedno kako biste dobili vaš osobni TED Talk.
05:07
You only have to make one decision,
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Morate donijeti samo jednu odluku:
05:09
and that is: Are you going to use the white version
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Hoćete li koristiti ovu bijelu verziju
05:11
for very good TEDTalks,
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za veoma dobar TED Talk,
05:13
about creativity, human genius?
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o kreativnosti, ljudskoj genijalnosti?
05:15
Or are you going to go with a black version,
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Ili ćete koristiti crnu verziju,
05:17
which will allow you to create really bad TEDTalks,
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koja će vam omogućiti da stvorite jako loš TED Talk,
05:19
mostly about blogs,
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uglavnom o blogu,
05:21
politics and stuff?
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politici i ostalom?
05:23
So, download it and have fun with it.
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Pa, skinite ga i zabavite se.
05:25
Now I hope you enjoy the session.
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Nadam se da ste uživali.
05:28
I hope you enjoy designing your own
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Nadam se kako ćete uživati u stvaranju
05:30
ultimate and worst possible TEDTalks.
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svojih najboljih ili najgore mogućih TED Talks.
05:32
And I hope some of you will be inspired for next year
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I nadam se kako će neki od vas biti inspirirani da naprave nešto ovakvo
05:35
to create this, which I really want to see.
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sljedeće godine, što bih zbilja želio vidjeti.
05:38
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam puno.
05:40
(Applause) Thanks.
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Sebastian Wernicke - Data scientistAfter making a splash in the field of bioinformatics, Sebastian Wernicke moved on to the corporate sphere, where he motivates and manages multidimensional projects.
Why you should listen
Dr. Sebastian Wernicke is the Chief Data Scientist of ONE LOGIC, a data science boutique that supports organizations across industries to make sense of their vast data collections to improve operations and gain strategic advantages. Wernicke originally studied bioinformatics and previously led the strategy and growth of Seven Bridges Genomics, a Cambridge-based startup that builds platforms for genetic analysis.
Before his career in statistics began, Wernicke worked stints as both a paramedic and successful short animated filmmaker. He's also the author of the TEDPad app, an irreverent tool for creating an infinite number of "amazing and really bad" and mostly completely meaningless talks. He's the author of the statistically authoritative and yet completely ridiculous "How to Give the Perfect TEDTalk."
Sebastian Wernicke | Speaker | TED.com