ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Sebastian Wernicke - Data scientist
After making a splash in the field of bioinformatics, Sebastian Wernicke moved on to the corporate sphere, where he motivates and manages multidimensional projects.

Why you should listen

Dr. Sebastian Wernicke is the Chief Data Scientist of ONE LOGIC, a data science boutique that supports organizations across industries to make sense of their vast data collections to improve operations and gain strategic advantages. Wernicke originally studied bioinformatics and previously led the strategy and growth of Seven Bridges Genomics, a Cambridge-based startup that builds platforms for genetic analysis.

Before his career in statistics began, Wernicke worked stints as both a paramedic and successful short animated filmmaker. He's also the author of the TEDPad app, an irreverent tool for creating an infinite number of "amazing and really bad" and mostly completely meaningless talks. He's the author of the statistically authoritative and yet completely ridiculous "How to Give the Perfect TEDTalk."

More profile about the speaker
Sebastian Wernicke | Speaker | TED.com
TED2010

Sebastian Wernicke: Lies, damned lies and statistics (about TEDTalks)

Laži, preklete laži in statistika (o TED Talks)

Filmed:
2,510,120 views

V tej sijajni šaljivi analizi Sebastian Wernicke s pomočjo orodij za statistično analizo ustvari sistem merjenja, s katerim se na podlagi ocen gledalcev da narediti najboljši TED Talk vseh časov. Kako naj ga ocenimo? Neverjeten? Neprepričljiv? Ali preprosto smešen?
- Data scientist
After making a splash in the field of bioinformatics, Sebastian Wernicke moved on to the corporate sphere, where he motivates and manages multidimensional projects. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:16
If you go on the TEDTED websitespletno stran,
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Če obiščete stran TED.com,
00:19
you can currentlytrenutno find there
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lahko tam trenutno najdete
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over a fullpolno weekteden of TEDTalkTEDTalk videosvideo posnetke,
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za več kot en teden videoposnetkov TEDTalks,
00:24
over 1.3 millionmilijonov
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več kot 1,3 milijona
00:26
wordsbesede of transcriptsprepisi
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transkribiranih besed
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and millionsmilijoni of useruporabnik ratingsocene.
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in na milijone ocen gledalcev.
00:30
And that's a hugeogromno amountznesek of datapodatkov.
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Ogromne količine podatkov.
00:33
And it got me wonderingsprašujem se:
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Zato sem se začel spraševati,
00:35
If you tookvzel all this datapodatkov
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kaj se zgodi, če se te
00:37
and put it throughskozi statisticalstatistično analysisanaliza,
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podatke statistično analizira.
00:39
could you reverseobratno engineerinženir a TEDTalkTEDTalk?
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Je na podlagi tega mogoče vzvratno sestaviti TED Talk?
00:41
Could you createustvarite
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Se da na ta način ustvariti najboljši
00:43
the ultimatekončni TEDTalkTEDTalk?
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TED Talk vseh časov?
00:45
(LaughterSmeh) (ApplauseAplavz)
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(Aplavz)
00:47
And alsotudi, could you createustvarite
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In ali se na drugi strani
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the worstnajhujše possiblemogoče TEDTalkTEDTalk
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da ustvariti najslabši TED Talk,
00:51
that they would still let you get away with?
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ki bo še vedno gledljiv?
00:53
To find this out, I lookedpogledal at threetri things:
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Da bi temu prišel do dna, sem preverjal tri stvari.
00:55
I lookedpogledal at the topictemo that you should chooseizberite,
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Pogledal sem izbrane teme,
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I lookedpogledal at how you should deliverdostavi it
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način podajanja teh vsebin
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and the visualsOptika onstagena odru.
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in vizualne pripomočke na odru.
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Now, with the topictemo: There's a wholeceloto rangerazpon of topicsteme you can chooseizberite,
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Glede tematike - obstaja cela vrsta vsebin, med katerimi
01:05
but you should chooseizberite wiselypametno,
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toda pri tem morate biti previdni,
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because your topictemo stronglymočno correlateskorelacije
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kajti vaš izbor je močno povezan
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with how usersuporabniki will reactreagirati to your talk.
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z reakcijo gledalcev na vaš govor.
01:12
Now, to make this more concretebeton,
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Da si boste to lažje predstavljali,
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let's look at the listseznam of topna vrh 10 wordsbesede
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si poglejmo seznam 10 besed,
01:17
that statisticallystatistično stickpalico out
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ki se statistično največkrat pojavljajo
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in the mostnajbolj favoritenajljubši TEDTalksTEDTalks
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v najbolj priljubljenih
01:21
and in the leastvsaj favoritenajljubši TEDTalksTEDTalks.
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in v najmanj priljubljenih govorih.
01:24
So if you cameprišel here
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Torej, če boste govorili o tem,
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to talk about how Frenchfrancoščina coffeekava
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kako francoska kava širi
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will spreadširjenje happinesssreča in our brainsmožgani,
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srečo v vaših možganih,
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that's a go.
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je to zadetek v polno.
01:33
(LaughterSmeh) (ApplauseAplavz)
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(Aplavz)
01:35
WhereasKer, if you wanted to talk about
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Če pa bi radi govorili o
01:37
your projectprojekt involvingvključujejo
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vašem projektu, ki vključuje
01:39
oxygenkisik, girlsdekleta, aircraftletala --
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kisik, dekleta, letala --
01:41
actuallydejansko, I would like to hearslišite that talk, (LaughterSmeh)
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čeprav bi jaz pravzaprav z veseljem poslušal ta govor --
01:43
but statisticsstatistiko say it's not so good.
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statistika pravi,
01:45
Oh, well.
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da ni dober. Bo že.
01:47
If you generalizegeneralizirati this,
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Če to posplošimo,
01:49
the mostnajbolj favoritenajljubši TEDTalksTEDTalks are those
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so najbolj priljubljeni govori tisti,
01:51
that featurefunkcija topicsteme we can connectpovezati with,
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ki vključujejo teme, s katerimi se lahko povežemo
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bothoboje easilyenostavno and deeplygloboko,
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hitro in močno,
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suchtako as happinesssreča, our ownlastno bodytelo,
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kot so sreča, naše telo,
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foodhrano, emotionsčustev.
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hrana, čustva.
02:00
And the more technicaltehnično topicsteme,
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Na drugi strani pa teme bolj tehnične narave
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suchtako as architecturearhitektura, materialsmaterialov and, strangelyčudno enoughdovolj, menmoški,
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kot so arhitektura, materiali in začuda, moški,
02:05
those are not good topicsteme to talk about.
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niso preveč dobra izbira.
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How should you deliverdostavi your talk?
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In kakšen mora biti vaš nastop?
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TEDTED is famousslavni for keepingvzdrževanje
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TED je znan po tem, da se zelo
02:12
a very sharpostro eyeoči on the clockura,
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drži časovne omejitve,
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so they're going to hatesovraštvo me
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zato jim ne bo všeč,
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for revealingrazkrivajo this, because, actuallydejansko,
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ko bom to razkril, kajti
02:18
you should talk as long as they will let you. (LaughterSmeh)
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govoriti morate, dokler vam bodo pustili,
02:20
Because the mostnajbolj favoritenajljubši TEDTalksTEDTalks
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saj so najbolj priljubljeni TED Talks
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are, on averagepovprečje, over 50 percentodstotkov longerdlje
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v povprečju za 50 % daljši
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than the leastvsaj favoritenajljubši onestiste.
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od najmanj priljubljenih.
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And this holdsdrži trueresnično for all rankingrazvrstitev listsseznami on TEDTED.comcom
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In to velja za vse lestvice priljubljenosti na TED.com,
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exceptrazen if you want to have a talk
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razen, če želite, da je vaš posnetek ocenjen kot
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that's beautifullepo, inspiringnavdihujoče or funnysmešno.
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čudovit, navdihujoč ali smešen.
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Then, you should be briefkratko. (LaughterSmeh) But other than that,
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Potem morate biti kratki. Drugače pa
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talk untildo they dragpovlecite you off the stagestopnja.
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morate govoriti, dokler vas ne zvlečejo z odra.
02:39
(LaughterSmeh)
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(Smeh)
02:41
Now, while ...
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No, medtem ko --
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(ApplauseAplavz)
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(Aplavz)
02:49
While you're pushingpotiskanje the clockura, there's a fewmalo rulespravila to obeyubogati.
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Medtem ko zavlačujete, pa morate upoštevati določena pravila,
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I foundnajdemo these rulespravila out by comparingprimerjava the statisticsstatistiko
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ki sem jih odkril s statistično primerjavo
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of four-wordštiri-beseda phrasesbesedne zveze
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štiribesednih fraz,
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that appearPojavi se more oftenpogosto in the mostnajbolj favoritenajljubši TEDTalksTEDTalks
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ki se pogosteje pojavljajo v najbolj priljubljenih TED Talks
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as opposednasprotuje to the leastvsaj favoritenajljubši TEDTalksTEDTalks.
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v nasprotju z najmanj priljubljenimi.
03:01
I'll give you threetri examplesprimeri.
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Naj predstavim tri primere:
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First of all, I mustmoraš, as a speakergovornik,
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Prvič, kot govornik morate
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providezagotoviti a servicestoritev to the audienceobčinstvo and talk about what I will give you,
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občinstvu nekaj ponuditi, govoriti o tem, kaj mu lahko daste,
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insteadnamesto tega of sayinggovoriti what I can't have.
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namesto o tem, česar ne morete imeti.
03:10
SecondlyDrugič, it's imperativenujno
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Drugič, niti pod razno
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that you do not citecitirati The NewNove YorkYork TimesKrat.
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ne smete citirati New York Timesa.
03:14
(LaughterSmeh)
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(Smeh)
03:16
And finallykončno, it's okay for the speakergovornik -- that's the good newsnovice --
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In nazadnje še dobra novica za govorce,
03:19
to fakeponaredek intellectualintelektualca capacityzmogljivost.
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nič ni narobe, če simulirate intelektualne sposobnosti.
03:21
If I don't understandrazumeti something, I can just say, "etcitd., etcitd."
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Če česa ne razumete, lahko vedno rečete "in tako dalje in tako naprej".
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You'llBoste all stayostani with me.
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Vsi vas bodo še naprej pozorno poslušali.
03:26
It's perfectlypopolnoma fine.
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Je popolnoma v redu.
03:28
(ApplauseAplavz)
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(Aplavz)
03:32
Now, let's go to the visualsOptika.
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Tako, sedaj pa še nekaj o vizualnih pripomočkih.
03:34
The mostnajbolj obviousočitno visualvizualno thing on stagestopnja is the speakergovornik.
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Najočitnejša stvar na odru je govornik.
03:37
And analysisanaliza showskaže if you want to be
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Analize so pokazale, da morate,
03:39
amongmed the mostnajbolj favoritenajljubši TEDTED speakerszvočniki,
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če želite biti med najbolj priljubljenimi TED predavatelji,
03:41
you should let your hairlasje growrastejo a little bitbit longerdlje than averagepovprečje,
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imeti lase za malenkost daljše od povprečja,
03:44
make sure you wearobrabo your glassesočala and be slightlymalce more dressed-upoblečene vplačani
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nositi očala in biti za spoznanje bolj elegantno oblečeni kot
03:47
than the averagepovprečje TEDTED speakergovornik.
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povprečni govornik.
03:49
SlidesDiapozitivi are okay, thoughčeprav you mightmorda considerrazmislite going for propsrekviziti.
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Prezentacija je v redu, vendar je dobro vključiti tudi kakšne pripomočke.
03:52
And now the mostnajbolj importantpomembno thing,
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In najbolj pomembna stvar
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that is the moodrazpoloženje onstagena odru.
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je atmosfera na odru.
03:56
ColorBarva playsigra a very importantpomembno rolevloga.
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Barve igrajo zelo pomembno vlogo.
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ColorBarva closelytesno correlateskorelacije
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Barva je v neposredni povezavi z
04:00
with the ratingsocene that talkspogovori get on the websitespletno stran.
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ocenami, ki jih posnetki prejmejo na strani TED.com.
04:03
(ApplauseAplavz)
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(Aplavz)
04:05
For exampleprimer, fascinatingfascinantno talkspogovori
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Na primer: očarljivi govori
04:07
containvsebujejo a statisticallystatistično highvisoko amountznesek
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statistično vsebujejo visok delež
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of exactlytočno this bluemodra colorbarva, (LaughterSmeh)
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natanko te modre barve,
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much more than the averagepovprečje TEDTalkTEDTalk.
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veliko več kot povprečno ocenjen TED Talk.
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IngeniousIznajdljiv TEDTalksTEDTalks, much more this greenzelena colorbarva,
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Domiselni so obarvani s to zeleno barvo
04:15
etcitd., etet.
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in tako dalje in tako naprej.
04:17
(LaughterSmeh) (ApplauseAplavz)
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(Aplavz)
04:24
Now, personallyosebno, I think
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Torej, osebno mislim, da
04:26
I'm not the first one who has doneKončano this analysisanaliza,
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nisem prvi, ki je naredil takšno analizo,
04:28
but I'll leavedopust this
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ampak to bom prepustil
04:30
to your good judgmentobsodba.
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vaši dobri presojji.
04:33
So, now it's time to put it all togetherskupaj
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Sedaj je prišel čas, da vse podatke združimo in
04:35
and designoblikovanje the ultimatekončni TEDTalkTEDTalk.
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ustvarimo najboljši TED Talk vseh časov.
04:37
Now, sinceod this is TEDActiveTEDActive,
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Ker smo danes na TED Active,
04:39
and I learnednaučili from my analysisanaliza
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in ker sem se iz lastnih analiz naučil,
04:41
that I should actuallydejansko give you something,
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da vam moram dejansko nekaj ponuditi --
04:43
I will not imposenaloži the ultimatekončni
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ne bom vam vsiljeval najboljšega
04:45
or worstnajhujše TEDTalkTEDTalk on you,
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ali najslabšega posnetka --
04:47
but ratherprecej give you a toolorodje to createustvarite your ownlastno.
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ampak vam bom raje dal orodje, s katerim si ga lahko naredite sami.
04:49
And I call this toolorodje the TEDPadTEDPad.
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In to orodje bom poimenoval TED Pad.
04:52
(LaughterSmeh)
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(Smeh)
04:55
And the TEDPadTEDPad is a matrixmatrika
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TED Pad je matrika,
04:57
of 100 specificallyposebej selectedizbran,
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100 posebej izbranih,
04:59
highlyvisoko curatedkustosinja sentenceskazni
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podrobno obdelanih stavkov,
05:02
that you can easilyenostavno piecekos togetherskupaj to get your ownlastno TEDTalkTEDTalk.
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ki jih lahko na enostaven način sestavite skupaj in ustvarite svoj TED Talk.
05:07
You only have to make one decisionodločitev,
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Odločiti se morate samo,
05:09
and that is: Are you going to use the whitebela versionrazličico
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ali boste uporabili belo verzijo
05:11
for very good TEDTalksTEDTalks,
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za zelo dober TED Talk
05:13
about creativityustvarjalnost, humančlovek geniusgenij?
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o ustvarjalnosti, človeški inteligenci?
05:15
Or are you going to go with a blackčrna versionrazličico,
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Ali boste raje vzeli črno različico,
05:17
whichki will allowdovolite you to createustvarite really badslab TEDTalksTEDTalks,
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s pomočjo katere boste ustvarili resnično slab TED Talk,
05:19
mostlyvečinoma about blogsblogi,
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večinoma o blogih,
05:21
politicspolitiko and stuffstvari?
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politiki in podobnih stvareh?
05:23
So, downloadprenesi it and have funzabavno with it.
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Naložite si ga na svoj računalnik in se zabavajte.
05:25
Now I hopeupanje you enjoyuživajte the sessionseja.
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Upam, da ste v predavanju uživali.
05:28
I hopeupanje you enjoyuživajte designingoblikovanje your ownlastno
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In da boste uživali tudi pri ustvarjanju svojih
05:30
ultimatekončni and worstnajhujše possiblemogoče TEDTalksTEDTalks.
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najboljših in najslabših govorov.
05:32
And I hopeupanje some of you will be inspirednavdihnjen for nextNaslednji yearleto
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In upam, da bo kdo izmed vas dobil navdih in naslednje leto
05:35
to createustvarite this, whichki I really want to see.
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ustvaril to, kar si zares želim videti.
05:38
Thank you very much.
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Najlepša hvala.
05:40
(ApplauseAplavz) Thankshvala.
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(Aplavz)
Translated by Evridika Cuder
Reviewed by Matej Divjak

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Sebastian Wernicke - Data scientist
After making a splash in the field of bioinformatics, Sebastian Wernicke moved on to the corporate sphere, where he motivates and manages multidimensional projects.

Why you should listen

Dr. Sebastian Wernicke is the Chief Data Scientist of ONE LOGIC, a data science boutique that supports organizations across industries to make sense of their vast data collections to improve operations and gain strategic advantages. Wernicke originally studied bioinformatics and previously led the strategy and growth of Seven Bridges Genomics, a Cambridge-based startup that builds platforms for genetic analysis.

Before his career in statistics began, Wernicke worked stints as both a paramedic and successful short animated filmmaker. He's also the author of the TEDPad app, an irreverent tool for creating an infinite number of "amazing and really bad" and mostly completely meaningless talks. He's the author of the statistically authoritative and yet completely ridiculous "How to Give the Perfect TEDTalk."

More profile about the speaker
Sebastian Wernicke | Speaker | TED.com