TED2010
Sebastian Wernicke: Lies, damned lies and statistics (about TEDTalks)
Laži, preklete laži in statistika (o TED Talks)
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V tej sijajni šaljivi analizi Sebastian Wernicke s pomočjo orodij za statistično analizo ustvari sistem merjenja, s katerim se na podlagi ocen gledalcev da narediti najboljši TED Talk vseh časov. Kako naj ga ocenimo? Neverjeten? Neprepričljiv? Ali preprosto smešen?
Sebastian Wernicke - Data scientist
After making a splash in the field of bioinformatics, Sebastian Wernicke moved on to the corporate sphere, where he motivates and manages multidimensional projects. Full bio
After making a splash in the field of bioinformatics, Sebastian Wernicke moved on to the corporate sphere, where he motivates and manages multidimensional projects. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
If you go on the TED website,
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Če obiščete stran TED.com,
00:19
you can currently find there
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lahko tam trenutno najdete
00:21
over a full week of TEDTalk videos,
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za več kot en teden videoposnetkov TEDTalks,
00:24
over 1.3 million
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več kot 1,3 milijona
00:26
words of transcripts
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transkribiranih besed
00:28
and millions of user ratings.
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in na milijone ocen gledalcev.
00:30
And that's a huge amount of data.
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Ogromne količine podatkov.
00:33
And it got me wondering:
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Zato sem se začel spraševati,
00:35
If you took all this data
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kaj se zgodi, če se te
00:37
and put it through statistical analysis,
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podatke statistično analizira.
00:39
could you reverse engineer a TEDTalk?
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Je na podlagi tega mogoče vzvratno sestaviti TED Talk?
00:41
Could you create
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Se da na ta način ustvariti najboljši
00:43
the ultimate TEDTalk?
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TED Talk vseh časov?
00:45
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(Aplavz)
00:47
And also, could you create
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In ali se na drugi strani
00:49
the worst possible TEDTalk
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da ustvariti najslabši TED Talk,
00:51
that they would still let you get away with?
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ki bo še vedno gledljiv?
00:53
To find this out, I looked at three things:
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Da bi temu prišel do dna, sem preverjal tri stvari.
00:55
I looked at the topic that you should choose,
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Pogledal sem izbrane teme,
00:57
I looked at how you should deliver it
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način podajanja teh vsebin
01:00
and the visuals onstage.
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in vizualne pripomočke na odru.
01:02
Now, with the topic: There's a whole range of topics you can choose,
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Glede tematike - obstaja cela vrsta vsebin, med katerimi
01:05
but you should choose wisely,
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toda pri tem morate biti previdni,
01:07
because your topic strongly correlates
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kajti vaš izbor je močno povezan
01:09
with how users will react to your talk.
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z reakcijo gledalcev na vaš govor.
01:12
Now, to make this more concrete,
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Da si boste to lažje predstavljali,
01:14
let's look at the list of top 10 words
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si poglejmo seznam 10 besed,
01:17
that statistically stick out
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ki se statistično največkrat pojavljajo
01:19
in the most favorite TEDTalks
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v najbolj priljubljenih
01:21
and in the least favorite TEDTalks.
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in v najmanj priljubljenih govorih.
01:24
So if you came here
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Torej, če boste govorili o tem,
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to talk about how French coffee
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kako francoska kava širi
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will spread happiness in our brains,
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srečo v vaših možganih,
01:31
that's a go.
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je to zadetek v polno.
01:33
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(Aplavz)
01:35
Whereas, if you wanted to talk about
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Če pa bi radi govorili o
01:37
your project involving
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vašem projektu, ki vključuje
01:39
oxygen, girls, aircraft --
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kisik, dekleta, letala --
01:41
actually, I would like to hear that talk, (Laughter)
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čeprav bi jaz pravzaprav z veseljem poslušal ta govor --
01:43
but statistics say it's not so good.
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statistika pravi,
01:45
Oh, well.
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da ni dober. Bo že.
01:47
If you generalize this,
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Če to posplošimo,
01:49
the most favorite TEDTalks are those
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so najbolj priljubljeni govori tisti,
01:51
that feature topics we can connect with,
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ki vključujejo teme, s katerimi se lahko povežemo
01:54
both easily and deeply,
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hitro in močno,
01:56
such as happiness, our own body,
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kot so sreča, naše telo,
01:58
food, emotions.
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hrana, čustva.
02:00
And the more technical topics,
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Na drugi strani pa teme bolj tehnične narave
02:02
such as architecture, materials and, strangely enough, men,
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kot so arhitektura, materiali in začuda, moški,
02:05
those are not good topics to talk about.
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niso preveč dobra izbira.
02:08
How should you deliver your talk?
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In kakšen mora biti vaš nastop?
02:10
TED is famous for keeping
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TED je znan po tem, da se zelo
02:12
a very sharp eye on the clock,
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drži časovne omejitve,
02:14
so they're going to hate me
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zato jim ne bo všeč,
02:16
for revealing this, because, actually,
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ko bom to razkril, kajti
02:18
you should talk as long as they will let you. (Laughter)
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govoriti morate, dokler vam bodo pustili,
02:20
Because the most favorite TEDTalks
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saj so najbolj priljubljeni TED Talks
02:23
are, on average, over 50 percent longer
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v povprečju za 50 % daljši
02:25
than the least favorite ones.
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od najmanj priljubljenih.
02:28
And this holds true for all ranking lists on TED.com
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In to velja za vse lestvice priljubljenosti na TED.com,
02:30
except if you want to have a talk
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razen, če želite, da je vaš posnetek ocenjen kot
02:32
that's beautiful, inspiring or funny.
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čudovit, navdihujoč ali smešen.
02:34
Then, you should be brief. (Laughter) But other than that,
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Potem morate biti kratki. Drugače pa
02:36
talk until they drag you off the stage.
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morate govoriti, dokler vas ne zvlečejo z odra.
02:39
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
02:41
Now, while ...
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No, medtem ko --
02:43
(Applause)
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(Aplavz)
02:49
While you're pushing the clock, there's a few rules to obey.
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Medtem ko zavlačujete, pa morate upoštevati določena pravila,
02:52
I found these rules out by comparing the statistics
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ki sem jih odkril s statistično primerjavo
02:54
of four-word phrases
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štiribesednih fraz,
02:56
that appear more often in the most favorite TEDTalks
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ki se pogosteje pojavljajo v najbolj priljubljenih TED Talks
02:59
as opposed to the least favorite TEDTalks.
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v nasprotju z najmanj priljubljenimi.
03:01
I'll give you three examples.
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Naj predstavim tri primere:
03:03
First of all, I must, as a speaker,
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Prvič, kot govornik morate
03:05
provide a service to the audience and talk about what I will give you,
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občinstvu nekaj ponuditi, govoriti o tem, kaj mu lahko daste,
03:08
instead of saying what I can't have.
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namesto o tem, česar ne morete imeti.
03:10
Secondly, it's imperative
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Drugič, niti pod razno
03:12
that you do not cite The New York Times.
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ne smete citirati New York Timesa.
03:14
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
03:16
And finally, it's okay for the speaker -- that's the good news --
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In nazadnje še dobra novica za govorce,
03:19
to fake intellectual capacity.
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nič ni narobe, če simulirate intelektualne sposobnosti.
03:21
If I don't understand something, I can just say, "etc., etc."
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Če česa ne razumete, lahko vedno rečete "in tako dalje in tako naprej".
03:24
You'll all stay with me.
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Vsi vas bodo še naprej pozorno poslušali.
03:26
It's perfectly fine.
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Je popolnoma v redu.
03:28
(Applause)
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(Aplavz)
03:32
Now, let's go to the visuals.
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Tako, sedaj pa še nekaj o vizualnih pripomočkih.
03:34
The most obvious visual thing on stage is the speaker.
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Najočitnejša stvar na odru je govornik.
03:37
And analysis shows if you want to be
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Analize so pokazale, da morate,
03:39
among the most favorite TED speakers,
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če želite biti med najbolj priljubljenimi TED predavatelji,
03:41
you should let your hair grow a little bit longer than average,
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imeti lase za malenkost daljše od povprečja,
03:44
make sure you wear your glasses and be slightly more dressed-up
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nositi očala in biti za spoznanje bolj elegantno oblečeni kot
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than the average TED speaker.
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povprečni govornik.
03:49
Slides are okay, though you might consider going for props.
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Prezentacija je v redu, vendar je dobro vključiti tudi kakšne pripomočke.
03:52
And now the most important thing,
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In najbolj pomembna stvar
03:54
that is the mood onstage.
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je atmosfera na odru.
03:56
Color plays a very important role.
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Barve igrajo zelo pomembno vlogo.
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Color closely correlates
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Barva je v neposredni povezavi z
04:00
with the ratings that talks get on the website.
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ocenami, ki jih posnetki prejmejo na strani TED.com.
04:03
(Applause)
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(Aplavz)
04:05
For example, fascinating talks
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Na primer: očarljivi govori
04:07
contain a statistically high amount
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statistično vsebujejo visok delež
04:09
of exactly this blue color, (Laughter)
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natanko te modre barve,
04:11
much more than the average TEDTalk.
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veliko več kot povprečno ocenjen TED Talk.
04:13
Ingenious TEDTalks, much more this green color,
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Domiselni so obarvani s to zeleno barvo
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etc., et.
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in tako dalje in tako naprej.
04:17
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(Aplavz)
04:24
Now, personally, I think
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Torej, osebno mislim, da
04:26
I'm not the first one who has done this analysis,
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nisem prvi, ki je naredil takšno analizo,
04:28
but I'll leave this
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ampak to bom prepustil
04:30
to your good judgment.
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vaši dobri presojji.
04:33
So, now it's time to put it all together
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Sedaj je prišel čas, da vse podatke združimo in
04:35
and design the ultimate TEDTalk.
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ustvarimo najboljši TED Talk vseh časov.
04:37
Now, since this is TEDActive,
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Ker smo danes na TED Active,
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and I learned from my analysis
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in ker sem se iz lastnih analiz naučil,
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that I should actually give you something,
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da vam moram dejansko nekaj ponuditi --
04:43
I will not impose the ultimate
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ne bom vam vsiljeval najboljšega
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or worst TEDTalk on you,
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ali najslabšega posnetka --
04:47
but rather give you a tool to create your own.
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ampak vam bom raje dal orodje, s katerim si ga lahko naredite sami.
04:49
And I call this tool the TEDPad.
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In to orodje bom poimenoval TED Pad.
04:52
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
04:55
And the TEDPad is a matrix
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TED Pad je matrika,
04:57
of 100 specifically selected,
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100 posebej izbranih,
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highly curated sentences
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podrobno obdelanih stavkov,
05:02
that you can easily piece together to get your own TEDTalk.
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ki jih lahko na enostaven način sestavite skupaj in ustvarite svoj TED Talk.
05:07
You only have to make one decision,
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Odločiti se morate samo,
05:09
and that is: Are you going to use the white version
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ali boste uporabili belo verzijo
05:11
for very good TEDTalks,
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za zelo dober TED Talk
05:13
about creativity, human genius?
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o ustvarjalnosti, človeški inteligenci?
05:15
Or are you going to go with a black version,
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Ali boste raje vzeli črno različico,
05:17
which will allow you to create really bad TEDTalks,
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s pomočjo katere boste ustvarili resnično slab TED Talk,
05:19
mostly about blogs,
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večinoma o blogih,
05:21
politics and stuff?
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politiki in podobnih stvareh?
05:23
So, download it and have fun with it.
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Naložite si ga na svoj računalnik in se zabavajte.
05:25
Now I hope you enjoy the session.
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Upam, da ste v predavanju uživali.
05:28
I hope you enjoy designing your own
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In da boste uživali tudi pri ustvarjanju svojih
05:30
ultimate and worst possible TEDTalks.
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najboljših in najslabših govorov.
05:32
And I hope some of you will be inspired for next year
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In upam, da bo kdo izmed vas dobil navdih in naslednje leto
05:35
to create this, which I really want to see.
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ustvaril to, kar si zares želim videti.
05:38
Thank you very much.
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Najlepša hvala.
05:40
(Applause) Thanks.
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(Aplavz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Sebastian Wernicke - Data scientistAfter making a splash in the field of bioinformatics, Sebastian Wernicke moved on to the corporate sphere, where he motivates and manages multidimensional projects.
Why you should listen
Dr. Sebastian Wernicke is the Chief Data Scientist of ONE LOGIC, a data science boutique that supports organizations across industries to make sense of their vast data collections to improve operations and gain strategic advantages. Wernicke originally studied bioinformatics and previously led the strategy and growth of Seven Bridges Genomics, a Cambridge-based startup that builds platforms for genetic analysis.
Before his career in statistics began, Wernicke worked stints as both a paramedic and successful short animated filmmaker. He's also the author of the TEDPad app, an irreverent tool for creating an infinite number of "amazing and really bad" and mostly completely meaningless talks. He's the author of the statistically authoritative and yet completely ridiculous "How to Give the Perfect TEDTalk."
Sebastian Wernicke | Speaker | TED.com