TEDGlobal 2010
Lee Hotz: Inside an Antarctic time machine
Lee Hotz: Unutar antartičkog vremenskog stroja
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Znanstveni kolumnist Lee Hotz opisuje značajan projekt kod WAIS Divide na Antartici, gdje uporna ekipa buši deset tisuća godina stari led kako bi izdvojili značajne podatke o promjenama u našoj klimi.
Robert Lee Hotz - Journalist
Robert Lee Hotz is the science columnist for the Wall Street Journal, where he writes about cutting-edge research on climate change, cosmology, molecular medicine, the human brain and much more ... He has traveled three times to the South Pole. Full bio
Robert Lee Hotz is the science columnist for the Wall Street Journal, where he writes about cutting-edge research on climate change, cosmology, molecular medicine, the human brain and much more ... He has traveled three times to the South Pole. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Come with me to the bottom of the world,
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Pođite sa mnom na dno svjeta,
00:18
Antarctica,
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Antarktiku,
00:20
the highest, driest, windiest,
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najviše, najsuhlje, najvjetrovitije,
00:22
and yes, coldest region on Earth --
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i da, najhladnije područje na Zemlji --
00:25
more arid than the Sahara
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sušnije od Sahare
00:27
and, in parts, colder than Mars.
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i, u dijelovima, hladnije od Marsa.
00:29
The ice of Antarctica glows
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Led Antarktike svijetli
00:31
with a light so dazzling,
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sa svjetlom, tako sjajnim,
00:33
it blinds the unprotected eye.
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da zasljepljuje nezaštićeno oko.
00:35
Early explorers rubbed cocaine in their eyes
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Rani istraživači su utrljavali kokaina u oči
00:37
to kill the pain of it.
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kako bi potisnuli bol izazvanu svjetlom.
00:39
The weight of the ice is such that the entire continent
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Težina leda je takva da se cijeli kontinent
00:42
sags below sea level, beneath its weight.
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objesio ispod morske razine, pod njegovom težinom.
00:45
Yet, the ice of Antarctica
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Ipak, led Antarktike
00:47
is a calendar of climate change.
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je kalendar klimatskih promjena.
00:49
It records the annual rise and fall
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On bilježi godišnji uspon i pad
00:51
of greenhouse gases and temperatures
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stakleničkih plinova i temperatura
00:53
going back before the onset of the last ice ages.
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koje sežu natrag do prije početka posljednjeg ledenog doba.
00:56
Nowhere on Earth
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Nigdje na svijetu
00:58
offers us such a perfect record.
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nam se ne nudi tako savršen zapis.
01:01
And here, scientists are drilling
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Ovdje, znanstvenici buše
01:03
into the past of our planet
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u prošlost našeg planeta
01:05
to find clues to the future
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kako bi pronašli indikacije o budućnosti
01:07
of climate change.
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klimatskih promjena.
01:09
This past January,
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Prošlog siječnja,
01:11
I traveled to a place called WAIS Divide,
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putovao sam do mjesta WAIS Divide,
01:13
about 600 miles from the South Pole.
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oko 965 kilometara od Južnog pola.
01:15
It is the best place on the planet, many say,
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To je najbolje mjesto na planeti, mnogi kažu,
01:18
to study the history of climate change.
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za proučavanje povijesti klimatskih promjena.
01:20
There, about 45 scientists from the University of Wisconsin,
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Ovdje, oko 45 znanstvenika sa Sveučilišta u Wisconsinu,
01:23
the Desert Research Institute in Nevada and others
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Desert Research Instituta u Nevadi i drugi,
01:26
have been working to answer a central question
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rade kako bi odgovorili na bitno pitanje
01:28
about global warming.
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o globalnom zatopljenju.
01:30
What is the exact relationship
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Koji je točan odnos
01:32
between levels of greenhouse gases
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između razine stakleničkih plinova
01:35
and planetary temperatures?
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i planetarnih temperatura?
01:37
It's urgent work. We know that temperatures are rising.
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To je hitan posao. Mi znamo da temperature rastu.
01:40
This past May was the warmest worldwide on record.
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Prošli svibanj je bio najtopliji u svijetu od početka mjerenja.
01:43
And we know that levels of greenhouse gases are rising too.
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I znamo kako razine stakleničkih plinova također rastu.
01:46
What we don't know
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Ono što ne znamo
01:48
is the exact, precise, immediate
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jest točan, precizan, izravan
01:50
impact of these changes
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utjecaj ovih promjena
01:52
on natural climate patterns --
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na prirodne klimatske uzorke --
01:54
winds, ocean currents,
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vjetrove, morske struje,
01:56
precipitation rates, cloud formation,
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količine oborina, stvaranje oblaka,
01:59
things that bear on the health and well-being
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stvari koje utječu na zdravlje i dobrobit
02:01
of billions of people.
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milijarda ljudi.
02:04
Their entire camp, every item of gear,
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Cijeli njihov logor, svaki element opreme,
02:07
was ferried 885 miles
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je bio prevezen 1,424 kilometara
02:09
from McMurdo Station,
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od McMurdo Station,
02:11
the main U.S. supply base
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glavne američke opskrbne baze
02:13
on the coast of Antarctica.
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na obali Antarktike.
02:15
WAIS Divide itself though,
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WAIS Divide je međutim
02:17
is a circle of tents in the snow.
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krug šatora u snijegu.
02:20
In blizzard winds, the crew sling ropes between the tents
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Tijekom mećave, posada upre užad između šatora,
02:23
so that people can feel their way safely
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kako bi ljudi mogli napipati svoj put
02:26
to the nearest ice house
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do najbliže ledene kuće
02:28
and to the nearest outhouse.
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i do najbližeg poljskog zahoda.
02:30
It snows so heavily there,
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Tamo snježi tako jako,
02:32
the installation was almost immediately buried.
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da je instalacija bila gotovo odmah zakopana.
02:34
Indeed, the researchers picked this site
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Zapravo, istraživači su izabrali ovo mjesto
02:37
because ice and snow accumulates here
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jer se led i snijeg akumulira ovdje
02:39
10 times faster than anywhere else in Antarctica.
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10 puta brže nego bilo gdje drugdje na Antarktici.
02:42
They have to dig themselves out every day.
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Oni se moraju iskopavati svaki dan.
02:45
It makes for an exotic
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To sve čini egzotičan
02:47
and chilly commute.
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i hladan put na posao.
02:49
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:51
But under the surface
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Ali ispod površine,
02:53
is a hive of industrial activity
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je košnica industrijske aktivnosti
02:56
centered around an eight-million-dollar drill assembly.
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centrirana oko sklopa bušilice od osam milijuna dolara.
02:59
Periodically, this drill, like a biopsy needle,
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Periodično, ta bušilica, kao biopsijska igla,
03:02
plunges thousands of feet deep into the ice
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uranja tisuće metara duboko u led
03:05
to extract a marrow of gases
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kako bi izvukla srž plinova
03:07
and isotopes for analysis.
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i izotopa za analizu.
03:10
Ten times a day, they extract
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10 puta na dan, oni ekstrahiraju
03:12
the 10-foot long cylinder of compressed ice crystals
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cilindar dugačkog 3 metra od komprimiranih kristala leda
03:14
that contain the unsullied air and trace chemicals
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koji sadrže netaknut zrak i tragove kemikalija
03:17
laid down by snow,
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polegnutih sa snijegom,
03:19
season after season for thousands of years.
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sezonu za sezonom tisućama godina.
03:24
It's really a time machine.
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To je zapravo vremenski stroj.
03:26
At the peak of activity earlier this year,
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Na vrhunacu aktivnosti ranije ove godine,
03:29
the researchers lowered the drill
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istraživači su spuštali bušilicu
03:32
an extra hundred feet deeper into the ice every day
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dodatnih 30 metara dublje u led svakog dana,
03:35
and another 365 years
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i slijedećih 365 godina
03:37
deeper into the past.
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dublje u prošlosti.
03:40
Periodically, they remove
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Periodično, oni vade
03:42
a cylinder of ice,
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cilindar leda,
03:44
like gamekeepers popping a spent shotgun shell
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poput lovaca koji izbacuju iskorištenu čahuru sačmarice,
03:46
from the barrel of a drill.
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iz cijevi bušilice.
03:50
They inspect it, they check it for cracks,
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Oni ga pregledaju, provjere ima li pukotine,
03:52
for drill damage, for spalls, for chips.
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štetu od bušenja, lomove, krhotine.
03:56
More importantly,
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Što je još važnije,
03:58
they prepare it for inspection and analysis
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oni ga pripremaju za inspekciju i analizu
04:00
by 27 independent laboratories
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u 27 neovisna laboratorija
04:02
in the United States and Europe,
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u Sjedinjenim Državama i Europi,
04:04
who will examine it for 40 different trace chemicals
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koji će ga ispitati na 40 različitih kemikalija u tragovima
04:06
related to climate,
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vezanih uz klimu,
04:08
some in parts per quadrillion.
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neke i u dijelovima po kvadrilionu.
04:11
Yes, I said that with a Q, quadrillion.
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Da, rekao sam da je s K, kvadrilion.
04:14
They cut the cylinders up into three-foot sections
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Oni režu taj cilindar na djelove od jednog metra
04:16
for easier handling and shipment
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radi lakšeg rukovanja i transporta
04:18
back to these labs,
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u te laboratorije,
04:20
some 8,000 miles from the drill site.
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od kojih su neki udaljeni čak oko 12,875 km od mjesta bušenja.
04:23
Each cylinder
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Svaki cilindar
04:25
is a parfait of time.
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je parfe vremena.
04:28
This ice formed as snow
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Taj se led formirao kao snijeg
04:31
15,800 years ago,
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prije 15,800 godina,
04:34
when our ancestors were daubing themselves with paint
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kada su se još naši preci mazali bojom
04:37
and considering the radical new technology
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te uzimali u obzirom radikalnu novi tehnologiju
04:40
of the alphabet.
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abecede.
04:43
Bathed in polarized light
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Okupan u polariziranom svjetlu
04:45
and cut in cross-section,
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i izrezan u presjeke,
04:47
this ancient ice reveals itself
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ovaj drevni led se prikazuje
04:49
as a mosaic of colors,
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kao mozaik boja,
04:51
each one showing how conditions at depth in the ice
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od kojih svaka pokazuje kako su uvjeti na dubini u ledu
04:54
have affected this material
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utjecali na ovaj materijal
04:57
at depths where pressures can reach
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na dubinama gdje tlak može doseći vrijednosti
05:00
a ton per square inch.
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od tisuću tona po kvadratnom metru.
05:03
Every year, it begins with a snowflake,
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Svake godine, sve započinje sa pahuljicom,
05:06
and by digging into fresh snow,
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i kopajući u svježem snijegu,
05:08
we can see how this process is ongoing today.
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možemo vidjeti kako je taj proces u tijeku i danas.
05:11
This wall of undisturbed snow,
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Ovaj zid netaknutog snijega,
05:13
back-lit by sunlight,
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odostraga osvijetljen sunčevim svijetlom,
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shows the striations of winter and summer snow,
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pokazuje linije zimskog i ljetnog snijega,
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layer upon layer.
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sloj za slojem.
05:22
Each storm scours the atmosphere,
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Svaka oluja čisti atmosferu,
05:25
washing out dust, soot,
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ispire ju od prašine, čađe,
05:28
trace chemicals,
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kemikalija u tragovima,
05:30
and depositing them on the snow pack
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te ih taloži u sniježne nanose
05:33
year after year,
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godinu za godinom,
05:35
millennia after millennia,
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tisućljeće za tisućljećem,
05:37
creating a kind of periodic table of elements
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stvarajući neku vrstu periodičnog sustavu elemenata
05:39
that at this point
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koji je u ovom trenutku
05:41
is more than 11,000 feet thick.
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debeo više od 3,350 metara.
05:44
From this, we can detect an extraordinary number of things.
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U njemu, možemo detektirati izvanredan broj stvari.
05:49
We can see the calcium
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Možemo vidjeti kalcij
05:51
from the world's deserts,
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iz svjetskih pustinja,
05:53
soot from distant wildfires,
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čađu iz dalekih požara,
05:55
methane as an indicator of the strength of a Pacific monsoon,
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metan kao pokazatelja tihooceanskog monsuna,
05:58
all wafted on winds from warmer latitudes
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sva strujanja vjetrova od toplijih geografskim širina
06:01
to this remote and very cold place.
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do ovog udaljenog i vrlo hladnog mjesta.
06:04
Most importantly,
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Što je najvažnije,
06:06
these cylinders and this snow
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ovi cilindri i ovaj snijeg
06:08
trap air.
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zarobljavaju zrak.
06:10
Each cylinder is about 10 percent ancient air,
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Svaki cilindar je oko 10 posto drevnog zraka,
06:13
a pristine time capsule
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netaknute vremenske kapsule
06:15
of greenhouse gases -- carbon dioxide,
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stakleničkih plinova - ugljični dioksid,
06:17
methane, nitrous oxide --
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metan, dušikov oksid --
06:19
all unchanged from the day that snow formed
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sve nepromijenjeno od dana kad se taj snijeg formirao
06:22
and first fell.
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i prvi puta pao.
06:24
And this is the object of their scrutiny.
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A to je centar njihovog proučavanja.
06:27
But don't we already know
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Ali, zar mi već ne znamo
06:29
what we need to know about greenhouse gases?
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sve što trebamo znati o stakleničkim plinovima?
06:31
Why do we need to study this anymore?
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Zašto ih trebamo još uvijek proučavati?
06:33
Don't we already know how they affect temperatures?
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Zar već ne znamo kako utječu na temperaturu?
06:35
Don't we already know the consequences
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Zar već ne znamo posljedice
06:38
of a changing climate on our settled civilization?
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klimatskih promjena na naše naseljene civilizacije?
06:41
The truth is, we only know the outlines,
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Istina je, mi znamo samo obrise,
06:44
and what we don't completely understand,
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a što u potpunosti ne razumijemo,
06:46
we can't properly fix.
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ne možemo ispravno popraviti.
06:48
Indeed, we run the risk of making things worse.
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Doista, postoji opasnost kako ćemo samo pogoršati stvar.
06:51
Consider, the single most successful
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Pogledajte, jedini najuspješniji
06:54
international environmental effort of the 20th century,
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međunarodni ekološki napor 20tog stoljeća,
06:57
the Montreal Protocol,
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Montrealski protokol,
06:59
in which the nations of Earth banded together to protect the planet
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u kojem su se narodi Zemlje povezali zajedno kako bi zaštitili Planet
07:02
from the harmful effects of ozone-destroying chemicals
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od štetnih učinaka kemikalija koje uništavaju ozon.
07:05
used at that time
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koje su se u to vrijeme koristile
07:07
in air conditioners, refrigerators and other cooling devices.
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u klima uređajima, hladnjacima, i drugim rashladnim uređajima.
07:10
We banned those chemicals,
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Mi smo zabranili te kemikalije,
07:13
and we replaced them, unknowingly,
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i zamjenili ih, ne znajući,
07:15
with other substances
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s drugim tvarima
07:17
that, molecule per molecule,
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koje, molekulu po molekulu,
07:19
are a hundred times more potent
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su sto puta jače
07:21
as heat-trapping, greenhouse gases
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kao zarobljivaći topline, staklenički plinovi
07:23
than carbon dioxide.
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nego ugljični dioksid.
07:26
This process requires
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Ovaj proces zahtijeva
07:28
extraordinary precautions.
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izvanredne mjere opreza.
07:31
The scientists must insure
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Znanstvenici moraju osigurati
07:33
that the ice is not contaminated.
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da led nije kontaminiran.
07:35
Moreover, in this 8,000-mile journey,
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Štoviše, u tom 12,875 kilometara putovanju,
07:37
they have to insure this ice doesn't melt.
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oni moraju osigurati da se led neće otopiti.
07:39
Imagine juggling a snowball across the tropics.
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Zamislite žongliranje grude snijega preko tropa.
07:43
They have to, in fact,
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Oni, u stvari,
07:45
make sure this ice never gets warmer
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moraju osigurati da taj led nikada neće biti topliji
07:47
than about 20 degrees below zero,
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od oko 20 stupnjeva ispod nule,
07:49
otherwise, the key gases inside it will dissipate.
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inače, će se ključni plinovi raspršiti.
07:52
So, in the coldest place on Earth,
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Dakle, na najhladnijem mjestu na Zemlji,
07:55
they work inside a refrigerator.
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oni rade unutar hladnjaka.
07:58
As they handle the ice, in fact,
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U stvari, dok barataju s ledom,
08:00
they keep an extra pair of gloves warming in an oven,
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drže jedan dodatan par rukavica na grijanju u pećnici,
08:02
so that, when their work gloves freeze
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tako da, kada se njihove radne rukavice smrznu,
08:04
and their fingers stiffen,
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a njihovi prsti ukrutnu,
08:06
they can don a fresh pair.
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oni mogu obući svjež par.
08:08
They work against the clock and against the thermometer.
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Oni rade protiv vremena i protiv termometra.
08:11
So far, they've packed up
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Do sada, oni su zapakirali
08:13
about 4,500 feet of ice cores
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oko 1,370 metara ledene jezgre
08:17
for shipment back to the United States.
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kako bi ih poslali u Sjedinjene Države.
08:19
This past season,
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Prošle sezone,
08:21
they manhandled them across the ice
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oni su ih ručno prenijeli preko leda
08:23
to waiting aircraft.
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do aviona koji ih je čekao.
08:25
The 109th Air National Guard
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109. Air National Guard
08:28
flew the most recent shipment of ice
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je prenijela najnoviju pošiljku leda
08:30
back to the coast of Antarctica,
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natrag do obale Antartike,
08:32
where it was boarded onto a freighter,
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gdje je bio ukrcan na teretni brod,
08:35
shipped across the tropics to California,
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koji je plovio preko tropa prema Kaliforniji,
08:38
unloaded, put on a truck,
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istovaren, prebačen na kamion
08:40
driven across the desert
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prevezen preko pustinje
08:42
to the National Ice Core Laboratory in Denver, Colorado,
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do National Ice Core Laboratory u Denveru, Kolorado
08:44
where, as we speak,
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gdje, dok mi pričamo,
08:46
scientists are now slicing this material up
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znanstvenici sada režu ovaj materijal
08:48
for samples, for analysis,
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na uzorke za analizu,
08:50
to be distributed
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kako bi bili distribuirani
08:52
to the laboratories around the country
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u laboratorije diljem zemlje
08:54
and in Europe.
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i u Europu.
08:57
Antarctica was this planet's
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Antartika je bila
09:00
last empty quarter --
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zadnji prazni kutak na ovom planetu --
09:02
the blind spot
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slijepa točka
09:04
in our expanding vision of the world.
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u širenje naše vizije svijeta.
09:06
Early explorers
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Rani istraživači
09:08
sailed off the edge of the map,
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su plovili s ruba karte,
09:10
and they found a place
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te su našli mjesto
09:12
where the normal rules of time and temperature
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gdje uobičajena pravila vremena i temperatura
09:14
seem suspended.
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izgledaju zaustavljena.
09:18
Here, the ice seems a living presence.
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Evo, led se čini kao živa prisutnost.
09:21
The wind that rubs against it
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vjetar koji se trlja o njega
09:23
gives it voice.
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daje mu glas.
09:26
It is a voice of experience.
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To je glas iskustva.
09:29
It is a voice we should heed.
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To je glas na koji bismo trebali obratiti pozornost.
09:33
Thank you.
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Hvala vam
09:35
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robert Lee Hotz - JournalistRobert Lee Hotz is the science columnist for the Wall Street Journal, where he writes about cutting-edge research on climate change, cosmology, molecular medicine, the human brain and much more ... He has traveled three times to the South Pole.
Why you should listen
Robert Lee Hotz is the science columnist for the Wall Street Journal, where he explores the world of new research and its impact on society. In his column, he ranges broadly across the research horizon, from climate change, cosmology and molecular medicine, to evolution, neuroeconomics and new insights into the human brain. Hotz was a Pulitzer Prize finalist in 1986 for his coverage of genetic engineering issues, and again in 2004 for his coverage of the space shuttle Columbia accident. Mr. Hotz shared in The Los Angeles Times’ 1995 Pulitzer Prize for articles about the Northridge Earthquake.
Hotz is a director of the Alicia Patterson Foundation, which funds independent journalism projects around the world, and a distinguished writer in residence at New York University. He is the author of Designs on Life, Exploring the New Frontiers of Human Fertility, and a contributor to several books on research issues.
Robert Lee Hotz | Speaker | TED.com