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TED2009

Pete Alcorn: The world in 2200

ピート・アルコーンが語る2200年の世界

Filmed
Views 497,176

このTED2009での短い講演で、ピート・アルコーンが今から2世紀後の世界の姿を描き出しています。それは人口の減少と機会の増大によりマルサスの間違いが証明される世界です。

- Media exec
Pete Alcorn is the head of podcasting for Apple, and a veteran of the paper-publishing industry. Full bio

I used to be a Malthusian.
私は以前マルサス主義者でした
00:12
This was my mental model of the world:
世界に対する私のメンタルモデルはこんな風でした
00:15
exploding population, small planet;
小さな惑星に、爆発する人口
00:18
it's going to lead to ugly things.
どんどん嫌な方向へ進んでいくだろう
00:21
But I'm moving past Malthus,
しかし私はマルサスを卒業しました
00:23
because I think that we just might be about 150 years
私たちは新たな啓蒙主義時代を150年後に迎えると
00:25
from a kind of new enlightenment.
思っているからです
00:28
Here's why.
理由を説明しましょう
00:30
This is the U.N.'s population data,
これはご存じかもしれませんが
00:32
you may have seen, for the world.
国連の世界人口データです
00:34
And the world's population expected to top out
世界人口は今世紀後半に
00:37
at something hopefully a bit less than 10 billion, late this century.
100億の手前で天井を打つと予測されています
00:39
And after that, most likely it's going to begin to decline.
その後、人口は減少し始めます
00:43
So what then?
それはどういう意味を持つのか?
00:47
Most of the economic models are built around scarcity and growth.
ほとんどの経済モデルは希少性と成長をめぐって構築されています
00:50
So a lot of economists
だから多くの経済学者は
00:53
look at declining population
人口減少に対し
00:55
and expect to see stagnation, maybe depression.
停滞や不況を予測します
00:57
But a declining population is going to have
しかし人口減少は少なくとも二つの好ましい経済効果を
01:00
at least two very beneficial economic effects.
もたらすはずです
01:03
One: fewer people on a fixed amount of land
第一点。一定の広さの土地の人口が減少すれば
01:07
make investing in property a bad bet.
不動産投資はまずい賭けになります
01:12
In the cities, a lot of the cost of property
都市部においては不動産価格の多くは
01:16
is actually wrapped up in its speculative value.
投機的な価値によって膨らんでいます
01:20
Take away land speculation,
土地投機がなくなれば
01:24
price of land drops.
地価は下がります
01:26
And that begins to lift a heavy burden
それは世界の貧困層が負う重荷を
01:28
off the world's poor.
取り除くことになります
01:30
Number two: a declining population
第二点。人口減少は労働力不足を
01:33
means scarce labor.
もたらします
01:37
Scarce labor drives wages.
労働力不足は賃金を押し上げ
01:39
As wages increase
賃金上昇もまた
01:41
that also lifts the burden on the poor and the working class.
貧困層や労働者階級の重荷を取り除きます
01:43
Now I'm not talking about a radical drop in population like we saw in the Black Death.
黒死病のときのような急激な人口減少が起きるわけではありませんが
01:48
But look what happened in Europe
ペスト流行後のヨーロッパで
01:52
after the plague:
どんなことが起きたかを考えてみてください
01:54
rising wages,
賃金上昇
01:56
land reform,
農地改革
01:58
technological innovation,
技術革新
02:00
birth of the middle class;
中流階級の誕生
02:03
and after that, forward-looking social movements
その後にはルネサンス
02:05
like the Renaissance,
さらには啓蒙主義のような
02:09
and later the Enlightenment.
進歩的な社会運動が起こりました
02:11
Most of our cultural heritage has tended to look backward,
私たちの文化の伝統は、過去を振り返り
02:14
romanticizing the past.
ロマンチックに描いてきました
02:17
All of the Western religions begin with the notion of Eden,
西洋の宗教はみな楽園の概念から始まり
02:20
and descend through a kind of profligate present
不品行に満ちた現在を経て
02:23
to a very ugly future.
極めて醜い未来へと続きます
02:26
So human history is viewed
つまり人類の歴史は
02:29
as sort of this downhill slide
古き良き時代から
02:31
from the good old days.
堕落していく過程と見られているのです
02:33
But I think we're in for another change,
しかし、私たちは別の変化へ向かっていると思います
02:35
about two generations after the top of that curve,
この曲線の頂点から
02:38
once the effects of a declining population
二世代ぐらい後、人口減少の効果が
02:41
start to settle in.
現れ始める頃
02:44
At that point, we'll start romanticizing the future again,
私たちは汚らしい野蛮な過去に代わって
02:46
instead of the nasty, brutish past.
未来をロマンチックに描くようになるでしょう
02:50
So why does this matter?
なぜそれが重要なのか?
02:53
Why talk about social-economic movements
1世紀も先の社会経済を
02:55
that may be more than a century away?
なぜ気にかけるのか?
02:57
Because transitions are dangerous times.
それは過渡期というのが危険な時代だからです
02:59
When land owners start to lose money,
土地所有者たちが資産を失い始め
03:03
and labor demands more pay,
労働者が賃上げを要求し始めたとき
03:06
there are some powerful interests that are going to fear for the future.
未来を恐れるような何か強烈な利害が生まれます
03:08
Fear for the future leads to some rash decisions.
そして未来への怖れは早まった決断に繋がります
03:12
If we have a positive view about the future
もし私たちが未来への建設的なまなざしを持っていれば
03:16
then we may be able to accelerate through that turn,
転換期を加速して乗り切れるでしょう
03:19
instead of careening off a cliff.
崖から飛び降りるのではなく
03:22
If we can make it through the next 150 years,
私たちがこれからの150年をうまく切り抜けられたなら
03:25
I think that your great great grandchildren
皆さんの孫の孫たちは
03:28
will forget all about Malthus.
マルサスなど知らずにいるでしょう
03:30
And instead, they'll be planning for the future
その代わりに、彼らは未来への計画を作り
03:32
and starting to build the 22nd Century Enlightenment.
22世紀の啓蒙主義を打ち立てていくでしょう
03:36
Thank you.
ご清聴ありがとうございました
03:39
(Applause)
(拍手)
03:41
Translated by MaYoMo com
Reviewed by Yasushi Aoki

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About the speaker:

Pete Alcorn - Media exec
Pete Alcorn is the head of podcasting for Apple, and a veteran of the paper-publishing industry.

Why you should listen

Pete Alcorn has been in the forefront of several head-snapping changes in media over the past two decades. Starting as a computer-textbook writer in the late '80s, Alcorn became fascinated with the new electronic side of print. He founded NetRead in the early '90s to help book publishers work with metadata and understand the next world of e-publishing.

Since 2005, he has led the podcasting operation at iTunes, bulking up the iTunes Music Store's podcast library with thousands of free (and very findable) titles. Before Apple, he led the sale of ebooks and electronic documents at Amazon.com. In his spare time, he thinks big thoughts.

More profile about the speaker
Pete Alcorn | Speaker | TED.com