TED2009
Pete Alcorn: The world in 2200
Pete Alcorn o svijetu u 2200.
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U ovom kratkom, optimističnom govoru s TED2009, Pete Alcorn dijeli viziju svijeta dva stoljeća unaprijed -- kada opadajuća populacija i rastuće prilike dokazuju kako je Malthus bio u krivu.
Pete Alcorn - Media exec
Pete Alcorn is the head of podcasting for Apple, and a veteran of the paper-publishing industry. Full bio
Pete Alcorn is the head of podcasting for Apple, and a veteran of the paper-publishing industry. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I used to be a Malthusian.
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Bio sam Maltuzijanac.
00:15
This was my mental model of the world:
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To je bio moj mentalni model svijeta.
00:18
exploding population, small planet;
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Eksplodirajuća populacija, mali planet,
00:21
it's going to lead to ugly things.
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dovest će to ružnih stvari.
00:23
But I'm moving past Malthus,
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Ali udaljavam se od Malthusa.
00:25
because I think that we just might be about 150 years
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Jer mislim kako bi mogli biti oko 150 godina
00:28
from a kind of new enlightenment.
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udaljeni od novog prosvjetljenja.
00:30
Here's why.
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Evo zašto.
00:32
This is the U.N.'s population data,
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Ovo su UN-ovi podaci o populaciji,
00:34
you may have seen, for the world.
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koje ste možda vidjeli, svijeta.
00:37
And the world's population expected to top out
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I očekuje se kako će svjetska populacija doseći vrh
00:39
at something hopefully a bit less than 10 billion, late this century.
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na nešto nižoj razini od 10 milijardi, kasnije u ovom stoljeću.
00:43
And after that, most likely it's going to begin to decline.
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I nakon toga će, najvjerojatnije, početi opadati.
00:47
So what then?
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I što onda?
00:50
Most of the economic models are built around scarcity and growth.
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Većina ekonomskih modela je izgrađena oko oskudnosti i rasta.
00:53
So a lot of economists
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Stoga, mnogo ekonomista
00:55
look at declining population
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promatra opadajuću populaciju
00:57
and expect to see stagnation, maybe depression.
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i očekuje pojavu stagnacije, možda depresije.
01:00
But a declining population is going to have
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Ali opadajuća populacija će imati
01:03
at least two very beneficial economic effects.
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barem dva jako pogodna ekonomska učinka.
01:07
One: fewer people on a fixed amount of land
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Prvo, manje ljudi, na fiksan udio zemlje
01:12
make investing in property a bad bet.
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pretvara investiranje u nekretnine u lošu okladu.
01:16
In the cities, a lot of the cost of property
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U gradovima, mnogi troškovi nekretnina
01:20
is actually wrapped up in its speculative value.
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su zapravo umotani u svoju špekulativnu vrijednost.
01:24
Take away land speculation,
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Uzmite zemljišnu špekulaciju,
01:26
price of land drops.
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cijena zemlje pada.
01:28
And that begins to lift a heavy burden
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A to počinje dizati težak teret
01:30
off the world's poor.
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s leđa siromašnih diljem svijeta.
01:33
Number two: a declining population
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Broj dva, opadajuća populacija
01:37
means scarce labor.
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znači oskudnu radnu snagu.
01:39
Scarce labor drives wages.
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Oskudna radna snaga pogoni plaće.
01:41
As wages increase
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Kako se plaće povećavaju,
01:43
that also lifts the burden on the poor and the working class.
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tako se diže teret s leđa siromašnih i radničke klase.
01:48
Now I'm not talking about a radical drop in population like we saw in the Black Death.
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Ne govorim o radikalnom padu populacije kakvu smo mogli vidjeti u "Crnoj smrti."
01:52
But look what happened in Europe
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Ali pogledajte što se dogodilo u Europi
01:54
after the plague:
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nakon kuge:
01:56
rising wages,
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povećanje plaća,
01:58
land reform,
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zemljišne reforme,
02:00
technological innovation,
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tehnološka inovacija,
02:03
birth of the middle class;
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rađanje srednjeg sloja.
02:05
and after that, forward-looking social movements
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I nakon toga, društveni pokreti s pogledom u budućnost
02:09
like the Renaissance,
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poput renesanse
02:11
and later the Enlightenment.
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i kasnije prosvijetljenja.
02:14
Most of our cultural heritage has tended to look backward,
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Većina naše kulturne baštine je imala tendenciju gledati unatrag,
02:17
romanticizing the past.
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romantizirajući prošlost.
02:20
All of the Western religions begin with the notion of Eden,
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Sve zapadnjačke religije započinju s pojmom Raja,
02:23
and descend through a kind of profligate present
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i spuštaju se kroz rasipničku sadašnjost,
02:26
to a very ugly future.
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u veoma ružnu budućnost.
02:29
So human history is viewed
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Dakle, ljudska povijest se promatrana
02:31
as sort of this downhill slide
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kao neka vrsta nizbrdice,
02:33
from the good old days.
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još iz dobrih, starih dana.
02:35
But I think we're in for another change,
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Ali mislim kako nam dolazi još jedna promjena.
02:38
about two generations after the top of that curve,
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Nakon dvije generacije od vrha te krivulje,
02:41
once the effects of a declining population
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jednom kada se efekti opadajuće populacije
02:44
start to settle in.
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počinu smirivati.
02:46
At that point, we'll start romanticizing the future again,
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U toj točki, počet ćemo opet romantizirati budućnost,
02:50
instead of the nasty, brutish past.
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umjesto gadne, okrutne prošlosti.
02:53
So why does this matter?
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Zašto je to važno?
02:55
Why talk about social-economic movements
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Zašto pričati o društveno-gospodarskim pokretima
02:57
that may be more than a century away?
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koji bi mogli biti udaljeni više od stoljeća?
02:59
Because transitions are dangerous times.
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Jer su prijelazi opasna vremena.
03:03
When land owners start to lose money,
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Kada zemljoposjednici počnu gubiti novac,
03:06
and labor demands more pay,
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i radna snaga počne zahtijevati više plaće,
03:08
there are some powerful interests that are going to fear for the future.
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postojat će nekoliko moćnih interesa koji će se bojati za budućnost.
03:12
Fear for the future leads to some rash decisions.
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Strah za budućnost vodi do naglih odluka.
03:16
If we have a positive view about the future
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Ukoliko imamo pozitivan pogled o budućnosti,
03:19
then we may be able to accelerate through that turn,
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možda ćemo moći ubrzati u tom zavoju,
03:22
instead of careening off a cliff.
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umjesto spuštanja niz liticu.
03:25
If we can make it through the next 150 years,
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Ukoliko možemo izdržati idućih 150 godina,
03:28
I think that your great great grandchildren
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mislim da će vaši pra-pra-unuci
03:30
will forget all about Malthus.
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zaboraviti sve o Malthusu.
03:32
And instead, they'll be planning for the future
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I umjesto toga, planirat će za budućnost
03:36
and starting to build the 22nd Century Enlightenment.
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i početi graditi "prosvijetljenje 22.stoljeća."
03:39
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
03:41
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Pete Alcorn - Media execPete Alcorn is the head of podcasting for Apple, and a veteran of the paper-publishing industry.
Why you should listen
Pete Alcorn has been in the forefront of several head-snapping changes in media over the past two decades. Starting as a computer-textbook writer in the late '80s, Alcorn became fascinated with the new electronic side of print. He founded NetRead in the early '90s to help book publishers work with metadata and understand the next world of e-publishing.
Since 2005, he has led the podcasting operation at iTunes, bulking up the iTunes Music Store's podcast library with thousands of free (and very findable) titles. Before Apple, he led the sale of ebooks and electronic documents at Amazon.com. In his spare time, he thinks big thoughts.
Pete Alcorn | Speaker | TED.com