TED2009
Pete Alcorn: The world in 2200
Pete Alcorn展望2200
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在這篇簡短而積極的TED2009演講中，Pete Alcorn與我們分享了他對於兩百年後的世界的看法 -- 屆時，人口衰退和機會增加將證明馬爾薩斯（的人口論）的錯誤。
Pete Alcorn - Media exec
Pete Alcorn is the head of podcasting for Apple, and a veteran of the paper-publishing industry. Full bio
Pete Alcorn is the head of podcasting for Apple, and a veteran of the paper-publishing industry. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I used to be a Malthusian.
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我曾經是一個馬爾薩斯主義者
00:15
This was my mental model of the world:
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從前，我心目中的世界是這樣的
00:18
exploding population, small planet;
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人口爆炸，地球狹小
00:21
it's going to lead to ugly things.
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將迎向一個醜陋的未來
00:23
But I'm moving past Malthus,
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但現在我已經把馬爾薩斯主義拋在腦後了
00:25
because I think that we just might be about 150 years
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因為我覺得再過150年
00:28
from a kind of new enlightenment.
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將會有一個新的啟蒙運動
00:30
Here's why.
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讓我來告訴你原因
00:32
This is the U.N.'s population data,
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你可能看過這個聯合國發佈的
00:34
you may have seen, for the world.
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世界人口數據
00:37
And the world's population expected to top out
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據估計，全球人口可能在本世紀末達到最高峰
00:39
at something hopefully a bit less than 10 billion, late this century.
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逼近100億大關
00:43
And after that, most likely it's going to begin to decline.
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過了這個高峰後，人口數將開始下滑
00:47
So what then?
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那會怎樣呢？
00:50
Most of the economic models are built around scarcity and growth.
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大部分經濟模式都是建立在「缺乏」和「成長」這兩個概念之上
00:53
So a lot of economists
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所以大部分經濟學家
00:55
look at declining population
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都將人口下滑這個現象視為
00:57
and expect to see stagnation, maybe depression.
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經濟不景氣或衰退的先兆
01:00
But a declining population is going to have
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但人口下滑將會為我們的經濟
01:03
at least two very beneficial economic effects.
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帶來至少兩個正面影響
01:07
One: fewer people on a fixed amount of land
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第一，人口減少，但土地面積仍是固定不變
01:12
make investing in property a bad bet.
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房地產將會成為一項不當的投資
01:16
In the cities, a lot of the cost of property
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在都市裡，大部分房地產的價錢
01:20
is actually wrapped up in its speculative value.
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其實全都是投機的行情
01:24
Take away land speculation,
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當土地的投機買賣減少
01:26
price of land drops.
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土地的價錢就會下跌
01:28
And that begins to lift a heavy burden
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對於貧窮的人來說
01:30
off the world's poor.
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這將大大減輕了他們肩上的重擔
01:33
Number two: a declining population
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第二，人口下滑
01:37
means scarce labor.
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意味著勞動人口跟著減少
01:39
Scarce labor drives wages.
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勞動力不足將帶動工資上漲
01:41
As wages increase
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隨著工資上漲
01:43
that also lifts the burden on the poor and the working class.
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窮人和勞動階層的負擔也會減輕
01:48
Now I'm not talking about a radical drop in population like we saw in the Black Death.
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我所講的不是像黑死病造成的那種人口急劇的銳減
01:52
But look what happened in Europe
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不過看看黑死病那場瘟疫後
01:54
after the plague:
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歐洲所發生的一切
01:56
rising wages,
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工資上升
01:58
land reform,
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土地改革
02:00
technological innovation,
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科技革新
02:03
birth of the middle class;
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中產階層誕生
02:05
and after that, forward-looking social movements
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隨之而來的，是高瞻遠矚的社會運動
02:09
like the Renaissance,
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如文藝復興
02:11
and later the Enlightenment.
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和後來的啟蒙運動
02:14
Most of our cultural heritage has tended to look backward,
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我們大部分的文化遺產都會回顧過往
02:17
romanticizing the past.
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將過去抹上浪漫的色彩
02:20
All of the Western religions begin with the notion of Eden,
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所有西方宗教都始於伊甸園這個概念
02:23
and descend through a kind of profligate present
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歷經今天這個放蕩的世界
02:26
to a very ugly future.
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然後朝向一個極醜惡的未來而沈淪
02:29
So human history is viewed
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所以我們認為人類歷史
02:31
as sort of this downhill slide
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是一種走下坡的發展
02:33
from the good old days.
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從過往美好的日子中開始墮落
02:35
But I think we're in for another change,
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但我認為另一個轉變即將到來
02:38
about two generations after the top of that curve,
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當人口曲線到達頂峰，經過兩個世代之後
02:41
once the effects of a declining population
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一但人口下滑帶來的連串效應
02:44
start to settle in.
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開始穩定下來時
02:46
At that point, we'll start romanticizing the future again,
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屆時，我們會開始憧憬美好的未來
02:50
instead of the nasty, brutish past.
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而不會與那醜惡的過去糾纏
02:53
So why does this matter?
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那麼，這又有什麼關係呢？
02:55
Why talk about social-economic movements
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為什麼要討論那或許一個世紀之後
02:57
that may be more than a century away?
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才會發生的社會經濟運動呢？
02:59
Because transitions are dangerous times.
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這是因為過渡期往往是最危險的時刻
03:03
When land owners start to lose money,
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當地主開始面臨虧損
03:06
and labor demands more pay,
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勞工要求提高工資時
03:08
there are some powerful interests that are going to fear for the future.
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會引起強而有力的利益團體恐懼擔憂他們的未來
03:12
Fear for the future leads to some rash decisions.
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這種對未來的恐懼擔憂會令人作出不理性的決定
03:16
If we have a positive view about the future
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如果我們對未來抱著一個正面的態度
03:19
then we may be able to accelerate through that turn,
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我們或許能加速衝過那個轉捩點
03:22
instead of careening off a cliff.
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而不是墮入萬丈深淵
03:25
If we can make it through the next 150 years,
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如果我們能安然的渡過接下來的150年
03:28
I think that your great great grandchildren
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我相信你們的曾曾子孫
03:30
will forget all about Malthus.
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會忘了馬爾薩斯
03:32
And instead, they'll be planning for the future
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其且他們會開始計劃末來
03:36
and starting to build the 22nd Century Enlightenment.
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並展開二十二世紀的啟蒙運動
03:39
Thank you.
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謝謝各位。
03:41
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Pete Alcorn - Media execPete Alcorn is the head of podcasting for Apple, and a veteran of the paper-publishing industry.
Why you should listen
Pete Alcorn has been in the forefront of several head-snapping changes in media over the past two decades. Starting as a computer-textbook writer in the late '80s, Alcorn became fascinated with the new electronic side of print. He founded NetRead in the early '90s to help book publishers work with metadata and understand the next world of e-publishing.
Since 2005, he has led the podcasting operation at iTunes, bulking up the iTunes Music Store's podcast library with thousands of free (and very findable) titles. Before Apple, he led the sale of ebooks and electronic documents at Amazon.com. In his spare time, he thinks big thoughts.
Pete Alcorn | Speaker | TED.com