TEDGlobal 2010
Eric Berlow: Simplifying complexity
Erik Berlou: Kako složenost vodi ka jednostavnosti
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Ekolog Erik Berlou, suočen sa složenim sistemima, ne oseća veliko uzbuđenje. On zna da više informacija može voditi do boljih, jednostavnijih rešenja. Predstavljajući savete i trikove za razumevanje velikih problema, izvlači suštinu američke strategije u Avganistanu kroz nekoliko osnovnih tačaka.
Eric Berlow - Ecologist
TED Senior Fellow Eric Berlow studies ecology and networks, exposing the interconnectedness of our ecosystems with climate change, government, corporations and more. Full bio
TED Senior Fellow Eric Berlow studies ecology and networks, exposing the interconnectedness of our ecosystems with climate change, government, corporations and more. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Do you ever feel completely overwhelmed
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Da li se ikada osećate potpuno poraženi
00:17
when you're faced with a complex problem?
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u susretu sa složenim problemom?
00:20
Well, I hope to change that in less than three minutes.
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Pa, nadam se da ću to promeniti za manje od tri minuta.
00:23
So, I hope to convince you that complex
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Dakle, nadam se da ću vas ubediti da složenost
00:25
doesn't always equal complicated.
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nije jednaka komplikovanosti.
00:27
So for me, a well-crafted baguette, fresh out of the oven,
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Dakle, za mene, sveže izvađen iz rerne, dobro umešan baget,
00:30
is complex,
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je složen,
00:32
but a curry onion green olive poppy cheese bread
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ali hleb sa sirom, karijem, lukom,
00:34
is complicated.
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zelenim maslinama, je komplikovan.
00:37
I'm an ecologist, and I study complexity. I love complexity.
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Ja sam ekolog i izučavam složenost. Volim složenost.
00:40
And I study that in the natural world, the interconnectedness of species.
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Izučavam je u prirodi, povezanost vrsta.
00:43
So here's a food web,
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Ovo je prehrambena mreža,
00:45
or a map of feeding links between species
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ili mapa povezanosti ishrane među vrstama
00:47
that live in Alpine Lakes in the mountains of California.
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koje žive u planinskim jezerima kalifornijskih planina.
00:50
And this is what happens to that food web
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A ovo se dešava toj mreži
00:52
when it's stocked with non-native fish that never lived there before.
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kada se napuni stranim ribama koje tu nikada pre nisu živele.
00:54
All the grayed-out species disappear.
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Sve ovo sivo su vrste koje nestaju.
00:56
Some are actually on the brink of extinction.
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Neke su zaista na ivici istrebljenja.
00:58
And lakes with fish have more mosquitos, even though they eat them.
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A jezera sa ribom imaju više komaraca, iako ih one jedu.
01:01
These effects were all unanticipated,
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Ovi efekti nisu bili očekivani,
01:03
and yet we're discovering they're predictable.
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a opet, otkrili smo da su predvidivi.
01:05
So I want to share with you a couple key insights
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I želim da podelim sa vama nekoliko ključnih uvida
01:07
about complexity we're learning from studying nature
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o složenosti koju otkrivamo proučavanjem prirode,
01:09
that maybe are applicable to other problems.
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a koji se možda mogu primeniti na druge probleme.
01:13
First is the simple power of good visualization tools
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Prvi - jednostavna moć dobre vizualizacije
01:15
to help untangle complexity
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koja pomaže da se složenost razmrsi
01:17
and just encourage you to ask questions you didn't think of before.
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i ohrabruje vas da pitate ono o čemu niste pre razmišljali.
01:20
For example, you could plot the flow of carbon
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Na primer, možete da napravite plan za protok ugljenika
01:23
through corporate supply chains in a corporate ecosystem,
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kroz lance za snabdevanje korporativnih ekosistema,
01:26
or the interconnections of habitat patches
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ili međupovezanost određenih staništa
01:28
for endangered species in Yosemite National Park.
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za ugrožene vrste u Josemit nacionalnom parku.
01:31
The next thing is that if you want to predict
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Sledeća stvar, ako želite da predvidite
01:33
the effect of one species on another,
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uticaj jedne vrste na drugu,
01:35
if you focus only on that link,
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ako se usmerite samo na tu vezu,
01:37
and then you black box the rest,
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i zanemarite ostale,
01:39
it's actually less predictable
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to vam donosi lošije rezultate
01:41
than if you step back, consider the entire system -- all the species, all the links --
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nego da ste ste uzeli u obzir ceo sistem - sve vrste, sve veze -
01:44
and from that place,
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i sa tog mesta,
01:46
hone in on the sphere of influence that matters most.
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usmerili se na sferu uticaja koja je najvažnija.
01:48
And we're discovering, with our research,
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I našim istraživanjima otkrivamo,
01:50
that's often very local to the node you care about
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da je ona vrlo lokalna, u rasponu jednog
01:52
within one or two degrees.
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ili dva stepena od čvora.
01:54
So the more you step back, embrace complexity,
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Dakle, što se više vratite unazad, prigrlite složenost,
01:56
the better chance you have of finding simple answers,
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imate veće šanse da nađete jednostavne odgovore,
01:58
and it's often different than the simple answer that you started with.
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koji su vrlo često drugačiji od onih sa kojima ste počeli.
02:02
So let's switch gears and look at a really complex problem
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Hajde da se prebacimo na zaista složen problem
02:05
courtesy of the U.S. government.
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uz ljubaznost američke vlade.
02:08
This is a diagram of the U.S. counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan.
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Ovo je dijagram američke strategije za borbu protiv pobunjenika u Avganistanu.
02:11
It was front page of the New York Times a couple months ago.
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Pre par meseci bio je na prvoj strani "Njujork Tajmsa" -
02:14
Instantly ridiculed by the media
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odmah ismejan od strane medija
02:16
for being so crazy complicated.
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što je tako ludo složen.
02:18
And the stated goal was to increase popular support
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A cilj je bio da se poveća podrška građana
02:20
for the Afghan government.
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avganistanskoj vladi.
02:22
Clearly a complex problem,
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Očigledno složen problem,
02:24
but is it complicated?
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da li je i komplikovan?
02:26
Well, when I saw this in the front page of the Times,
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Pa, kada sam video to na prvoj strani "Tajmsa",
02:28
I thought, "Great. Finally something I can relate to.
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pomislio sam: "Sjajno. Konačno nešto s čime mogu da se povežem.
02:30
I can sink my teeth into this."
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Mogu da uronim u to."
02:32
So let's do it. So here we go for the first time ever,
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Hajde da to uradimo. Po prvi put, svetska premijera,
02:35
a world premiere view of this spaghetti diagram as an ordered network.
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ovog špageti dijagrama, organizovanog u sređenu mrežu.
02:38
The circled node is the one we're trying to influence --
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Kružni čvor je onaj na koji pokušavamo da utičemo -
02:40
popular support for the government.
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podrška vladi od strane građana.
02:42
And so now we can look one degrees, two degrees,
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Sada možemo pogledati jedan, dva,
02:44
three degrees away from that node
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tri stepena od tog čvora
02:46
and eliminate three-quarters of the diagram outside that sphere of influence.
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i ukloniti tri četvrtine dijagrama izvan sfere uticaja.
02:49
Within that sphere,
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U okviru te oblasti,
02:51
most of those nodes are not actionable, like the harshness of the terrain,
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većina tih čvorova nije vezana za aktivnost, poput surovosti terena,
02:54
and a very small minority are actual military actions.
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a veoma mali procenat čine vojne akcije.
02:57
Most are non-violent and they fall into two broad categories:
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Većina njih je nenasilna i spada u dve široke kategorije:
03:01
active engagement with ethnic rivalries and religious beliefs
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aktivno učešće u etničkim sukobima i verskim uverenjima
03:04
and fair, transparent economic development
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i pravičan, vidljiv ekonomski razvoj
03:06
and provisioning of services.
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i pružanje usluga.
03:08
I don't know about this, but this is what I can decipher from this diagram
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Ne znam mnogo o tome, ali to je ono što mogu da dešifrujem iz ovog dijagrama
03:11
in 24 seconds.
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za 24 sekunde.
03:13
When you see a diagram like this, I don't want you to be afraid.
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Kada vidite dijagram poput ovog, ne želim da se uplašite.
03:15
I want you to be excited. I want you to be relieved.
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Želim da budete uzbuđeni. Želim da vam bude lakše.
03:18
Because simple answers may emerge.
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Jer mogu da se jave jednostavni odgovori.
03:20
We're discovering in nature that simplicity often lies
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U prirodi otkrivamo da jednostavnost često leži
03:22
on the other side of complexity.
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sa druge strane složenosti.
03:24
So for any problem, the more you can zoom out and embrace complexity,
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Dakle, za bilo koji problem, što se više udaljite i prihvatite složenost,
03:27
the better chance you have of zooming in
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imate veće šanse za približavanje
03:29
on the simple details that matter most.
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jednostavnim detaljima koji najviše znače.
03:31
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
03:33
(Applause)
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(aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Eric Berlow - EcologistTED Senior Fellow Eric Berlow studies ecology and networks, exposing the interconnectedness of our ecosystems with climate change, government, corporations and more.
Why you should listen
Eric Berlow is an ecologist and network scientist who specializes in not specializing. A TED Senior Fellow, Berlow is recognized for his research on food webs and ecological networks and for creative approaches to complex problems. He was the founding director of the University of California's first environmental science center inside Yosemite National Park, where he continues to develop data-driven approaches to managing natural ecosystems.
In 2012 Berlow founded Vibrant Data Labs, which builds tools to use data for social good. Berlow's current projects range from helping spark an egalitarian personal data economy to protecting endangered amphibians in Yosemite to crowd-sourcing novel insights about human creativity. Berlow holds a Ph.D. from Oregon State University in marine ecology.
Eric Berlow | Speaker | TED.com