TED2013
Andrew McAfee: What will future jobs look like?
Endru Mekafi (Andrew McAfee): Kako će izgledati budući poslovi?
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Ekonomista Endru Mekafi nagoveštava da će roboti verovatno preuzeti naše poslove - ili barem one vrste poslove koje danas poznajemo. U ovom proročkom govoru, on promišlja o izgledu budućnih poslova i školovanju mladih generacija koje će se njima baviti.
Andrew McAfee - Management theorist
Andrew McAfee studies how information technology affects businesses and society. Full bio
Andrew McAfee studies how information technology affects businesses and society. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
The writer George Eliot cautioned us that,
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Spisateljica Džordž Eliot upozorila nas je,
00:15
among all forms of mistake,
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da je među svim greškama,
00:17
prophesy is the most gratuitous.
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predviđanje najbespotrebnija.
00:19
The person that we would all acknowledge
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Osoba za koju bismo se složili
00:21
as her 20th-century counterpart, Yogi Berra, agreed.
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da je njen istomišljenik iz XX veka,
Jogi Bera, složio se.
Jogi Bera, složio se.
00:25
He said, "It's tough to make predictions,
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On kaže: "Teško je predviđati,
00:27
especially about the future."
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naročito u vezi sa budućnošću."
00:30
I'm going to ignore their cautions
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Ja ću ignorisati njihova upozorenja
00:32
and make one very specific forecast.
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i predvideću nešto veoma specifično.
00:34
In the world that we are creating very quickly,
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U svetu gde stvaramo novine veoma brzo,
00:36
we're going to see more and more things
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videćemo sve više i više stvari
00:38
that look like science fiction,
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kao iz naučne fantastike,
00:40
and fewer and fewer things that look like jobs.
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a sve manje stvari
koje izgledaju kao posao.
koje izgledaju kao posao.
00:43
Our cars are very quickly going to start driving themselves,
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Naša kola će uskoro početi
sama da se voze,
sama da se voze,
00:46
which means we're going to need fewer truck drivers.
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što znači da će nam trebati
sve manje vozača kamiona.
sve manje vozača kamiona.
00:48
We're going to hook Siri up to Watson
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Povezaćemo Siri i Votsona
00:51
and use that to automate a lot of the work
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i koristitćemo ih za automatizaciju posla
00:53
that's currently done by customer service reps
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koji trenutno obavlja služba
za rad sa strankama
za rad sa strankama
00:55
and troubleshooters and diagnosers,
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i kontrolori i predviđači,
00:58
and we're already taking R2D2,
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a već upotrebljavamo robota
"Artu-Ditu" (iz "Ratova zvezda"),
"Artu-Ditu" (iz "Ratova zvezda"),
01:00
painting him orange, and putting him to work
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narandžaste boje,
kog uključujemo u poslove
kog uključujemo u poslove
01:04
carrying shelves around warehouses,
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nošenja delova u skladištima,
01:06
which means we need a lot fewer people
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što znači da nam je potrebno manje ljudi
01:08
to be walking up and down those aisles.
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da šeta ovim prolazima.
01:10
Now, for about 200 years,
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Već oko 200 godina,
01:14
people have been saying exactly what I'm telling you --
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ljudi govore upravo ovo što pričam,
01:16
the age of technological unemployment is at hand —
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doba tehnološke nezaposlenosti
je nadomak ruke -
je nadomak ruke -
01:19
starting with the Luddites smashing looms in Britain
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počevši od Ladovog pokreta
uništavanja mašina u Velikoj Britaniji
uništavanja mašina u Velikoj Britaniji
01:22
just about two centuries ago,
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od pre dva veka,
01:23
and they have been wrong.
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što se pokazalo pogrešnim.
01:25
Our economies in the developed world have coasted along
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Ekonomija našeg razvijenog sveta
razvijala se
razvijala se
01:28
on something pretty close to full employment.
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na skoro potpunoj zaposlenosti.
01:30
Which brings up a critical question:
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Što nas dovodi do ključnog pitanja:
01:32
Why is this time different, if it really is?
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zašto je ovo vreme drugačije,
ako zaista jeste?
ako zaista jeste?
01:35
The reason it's different is that, just in the past few years,
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Različito je jedino zato što su
u proteklih nekoliko godina,
u proteklih nekoliko godina,
01:38
our machines have started demonstrating skills
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mašine demonstrirale veštine
01:40
they have never, ever had before:
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koje ranije nisu imale, a to su:
01:43
understanding, speaking, hearing, seeing,
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razumevanje, pričanje, slušanje, gledanje,
01:46
answering, writing, and they're still acquiring new skills.
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odgovaranje, pisanje,
a još uvek stiču i nove veštine.
a još uvek stiču i nove veštine.
01:50
For example, mobile humanoid robots
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Na primer, mobilni humaidni roboti
01:53
are still incredibly primitive,
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još uvek su veoma nerazvijeni,
01:55
but the research arm of the Defense Department
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ali odeljenje za istraživanja
Ministarstva odbrane
Ministarstva odbrane
01:57
just launched a competition
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upravo je pokrenulo nadmetanje
01:58
to have them do things like this,
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za robote koji bi radili ovakve stvari
02:00
and if the track record is any guide,
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i ako je ostvaren učinak nekakav pokazatelj,
02:02
this competition is going to be successful.
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ovo takmičenje biće uspešno.
02:05
So when I look around, I think the day is not too far off at all
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Kada pogledam oko sebe,
mislim da taj dan kada ćemo
mislim da taj dan kada ćemo
02:08
when we're going to have androids
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imati androide nije uopšte daleko,
02:10
doing a lot of the work that we are doing right now.
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oni će obavljati mnoge poslove
koje danas mi radimo.
koje danas mi radimo.
02:13
And we're creating a world where there is going to be
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Stvaramo svet u kome će biti
02:17
more and more technology and fewer and fewer jobs.
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sve više tehnologije, a sve manje angažovanja
ljudske radne snage.
ljudske radne snage.
02:21
It's a world that Erik Brynjolfsson and I are calling
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To je svet koji Erik Brinjolfson i ja zovemo
02:23
"the new machine age."
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"novo mašinsko doba".
02:24
The thing to keep in mind is that
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Ono što treba imati na umu jeste
02:27
this is absolutely great news.
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da je to odlična vest.
02:29
This is the best economic news on the planet these days.
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To je najbolja vest na svetu za našu privredu.
02:32
Not that there's a lot of competition, right?
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Nije da postoji mnogo konkurencije, zar ne?
02:36
This is the best economic news we have these days
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Ovo je najbolja vest u privredi ovih dana
02:38
for two main reasons.
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iz dva glavna razloga.
02:39
The first is, technological progress is what allows us
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Prvi je, tehnološki napredak nam dozvoljava
02:42
to continue this amazing recent run that we're on
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da nastavimo ovaj neverovatni napredak,
02:46
where output goes up over time,
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gde proizvodnja sve više raste vremenom,
02:49
while at the same time, prices go down,
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dok u isto vreme, cene padaju,
02:52
and volume and quality just continue to explode.
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a količina i kvalitet
samo nastavljaju s ekspanzijom.
samo nastavljaju s ekspanzijom.
02:56
Now, some people look at this and talk about
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Neki ljudi gledaju ovo i govore
02:58
shallow materialism,
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o površnom materijalizmu,
03:00
but that's absolutely the wrong way to look at it.
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ali to je pogrešan način gledanja.
03:02
This is abundance, which is exactly
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Ovo je izobilje, koje je tačno
03:05
what we want our economic system to provide.
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ono što želimo da naša privreda obezbeđuje.
03:08
The second reason that the new machine age
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Drugi razlog zašto je
novo mašinsko doba
novo mašinsko doba
03:11
is such great news is that, once the androids
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tako dobra vest,
jeste i to što kada jednom androidi
jeste i to što kada jednom androidi
03:14
start doing jobs, we don't have to do them anymore,
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počnu s obavljanjem poslova,
mi nećemo morati da ih radimo,
mi nećemo morati da ih radimo,
03:17
and we get freed up from drudgery and toil.
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bićemo oslobođeni od napora i truda.
03:21
Now, when I talk about this with my friends
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Kada o ovome pričam s prijateljima
03:23
in Cambridge and Silicon Valley, they say,
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u Kembridžu i Silicijumskoj dolini, kažu:
03:25
"Fantastic. No more drudgery, no more toil.
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"Fantastično. Nema više napora,
nema više truda.
nema više truda.
03:27
This gives us the chance to imagine
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Ovo nam pruža šansu da maštamo
03:29
an entirely different kind of society,
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o potpuno drugom društvu,
03:32
a society where the creators and the discoverers
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društvu gde kreativci i pronalazači,
03:35
and the performers and the innovators
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kao i izvođači i inovatori
03:36
come together with their patrons and their financiers
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mogu da sednu sa svojim
sponzorima ili finansijerima,
sponzorima ili finansijerima,
03:40
to talk about issues, entertain, enlighten,
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i da raspravljaju o raznim stvarima,
zabavljaju se, obrazuju
zabavljaju se, obrazuju
03:43
provoke each other."
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ili izazivaju jedni druge."
03:45
It's a society really, that looks a lot like the TED Conference.
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To je zapravo društvo koje liči
na TED konferenciju.
na TED konferenciju.
03:49
And there's actually a huge amount of truth here.
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Ovde zaista leži dosta istine.
03:52
We are seeing an amazing flourishing taking place.
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Gledamo kako nastaje neverovatan napredak.
03:55
In a world where it is just about as easy
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U svetu gde je jednako jdnostavno stvoriti
03:57
to generate an object as it is to print a document,
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objekat kao što je jednostavno
odštampati dokument,
odštampati dokument,
04:00
we have amazing new possibilities.
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imamo neverovatne mogućnosti.
04:02
The people who used to be craftsmen and hobbyists
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Zanatlije i ljubitelji hobija
04:06
are now makers, and they're responsible
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su sada stvaraoci, odgovorni
04:08
for massive amounts of innovation.
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za mnoštvo inovacija.
04:10
And artists who were formerly constrained
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A umetnici koji su ranije bili ograničeni
04:13
can now do things that were never, ever possible
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sada mogu raditi stvari
koje nikad nisu bile moguće
koje nikad nisu bile moguće
04:16
for them before.
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za njih ranije.
04:18
So this is a time of great flourishing,
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Tako da je u pitanju vreme
velikog procvata
velikog procvata
04:20
and the more I look around, the more convinced I become
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i što više posmatram,
uvereniji sam
uvereniji sam
04:23
that this quote, from the physicist Freeman Dyson,
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da sledeći citat fizičara Frimena Dajsona,
04:26
is not hyperbole at all.
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nije više preterivanje.
04:28
This is just a plain statement of the facts.
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To je samo obična izjava činjenica.
04:31
We are in the middle of an astonishing period.
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Nalazimo se usred zapanjujućeg perioda.
04:32
["Technology is a gift of God. After the gift of life it is perhaps the greatest of God's gifts. It is the mother of civilizations, of arts and of sciences." — Freeman Dyson]
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["Tehnologija je poklon od boga. Nakon života, ovo je možda najveći božiji dar. Ona je rodila civilizacije, umetnosti i nauke" - Frimen Dajson]
04:33
Which brings up another great question:
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Što nas dovodi do sledećeg pitanja:
04:36
What could possibly go wrong in this new machine age?
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šta bi moglo poći naopako
u novoj mašinskoj eri?
u novoj mašinskoj eri?
04:39
Right? Great, hang up, flourish, go home.
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Zar ne? Super, spusti slušalicu,
napreduj, idi kući.
napreduj, idi kući.
04:42
We're going to face two really thorny sets of challenges
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Suočićemo se s dve
bodljikave skupine izazova,
bodljikave skupine izazova,
04:45
as we head deeper into the future that we're creating.
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što se više udubljujemo
u budućnost koju stvaramo.
u budućnost koju stvaramo.
04:48
The first are economic, and they're really nicely summarized
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Prvo je privreda, vrlo je lepo sumirana
04:51
in an apocryphal story about a back-and-forth
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u sumnjivoj priči o razgovoru
04:54
between Henry Ford II and Walter Reuther,
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između Henrija Forda II i Valtera Rutera,
04:57
who was the head of the auto workers union.
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koji je bio predsedavajući
udruženja auto majstora.
udruženja auto majstora.
05:00
They were touring one of the new modern factories,
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Oni su obilazili jednu od novih modernih fabrika
i Ford se veselo okrenuo Ruteru i pitao:
05:02
and Ford playfully turns to Reuther and says,
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05:05
"Hey Walter, how are you going to get these robots
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"Hej Voltere, kako ćeš naterati te robote
05:07
to pay union dues?"
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da plaćaju sindikalne članarine?"
05:09
And Reuther shoots back, "Hey Henry,
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A Ruter je uzviknuo zauzvrat: "Henri,
05:11
how are you going to get them to buy cars?"
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kako ćeš ih naterati da kupuju automobile?"
05:15
Reuther's problem in that anecdote
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Ruterov problem u anegdoti je taj
05:18
is that it is tough to offer your labor to an economy
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što je teško nuditi vaš rad privredi
05:22
that's full of machines,
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koja je puna mašina,
05:24
and we see this very clearly in the statistics.
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a što možemo videti iz statistika.
05:26
If you look over the past couple decades
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Ako pogeldate, prethodnih par decenija,
05:29
at the returns to capital -- in other words, corporate profits --
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zarada - drugim rečima,
korporativni profit -
korporativni profit -
05:32
we see them going up,
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raste,
05:34
and we see that they're now at an all-time high.
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a vidimo da je trenutno najviša u istoriji.
05:36
If we look at the returns to labor, in other words
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Ukoliko pogledamo zaradu za rad,
drugim rečima
drugim rečima
05:39
total wages paid out in the economy,
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ukupne zarade isplaćene u privredi,
05:41
we see them at an all-time low
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najniže su do sada,
05:43
and heading very quickly in the opposite direction.
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a ubrzano počinju da se kreću
u suprotnom pravcu.
u suprotnom pravcu.
05:46
So this is clearly bad news for Reuther.
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Ovo je očito loša vest za Rutera.
05:48
It looks like it might be great news for Ford,
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Izgleda da bi mogla biti dobra vest za Forda,
05:52
but it's actually not. If you want to sell
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ali zapravo nije.
Ako želite prodati
Ako želite prodati
05:54
huge volumes of somewhat expensive goods to people,
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velike količine skupog dobra kupcima,
05:57
you really want a large, stable, prosperous middle class.
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trebaće vam brojna, stabilna, srednja klasa.
06:01
We have had one of those in America
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To smo imali u Americi
06:03
for just about the entire postwar period.
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u posleratnom periodu.
06:06
But the middle class is clearly under huge threat right now.
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No, srednja klasa je očigledno
vrlo ugrožena danas.
vrlo ugrožena danas.
06:10
We all know a lot of the statistics,
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Svi znamo mnogo staistika,
06:12
but just to repeat one of them,
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ali čisto da ponovim jednu od njih,
06:14
median income in America has actually gone down
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srednji prihodi u Americi su u stvari opali
06:17
over the past 15 years,
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u zadnjih 15 godina
06:18
and we're in danger of getting trapped
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i možemo upasti u zamku
06:20
in some vicious cycle where inequality and polarization
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nekog začaranog kruga,
gde nejednakost i polarizacija
gde nejednakost i polarizacija
06:24
continue to go up over time.
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nastavljaju da se produbljuju vremenom.
06:27
The societal challenges that come along
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Društveni izazovi koji dolaze
06:30
with that kind of inequality deserve some attention.
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sa ovakvim nejednakostima
zaslužuju pažnju.
zaslužuju pažnju.
06:32
There are a set of societal challenges
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Javlja se niz društvenih izazova
06:34
that I'm actually not that worried about,
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oko kojih nisam toliko zabrinut,
06:36
and they're captured by images like this.
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a oni su prikazani u ovakvim prizorima.
06:38
This is not the kind of societal problem
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Ja nisam zabrinut
06:40
that I am concerned about.
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za ovu vrstu društvenih problema.
06:42
There is no shortage of dystopian visions
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Ne postoji nestašica
distopijske vizije,
distopijske vizije,
06:45
about what happens when our machines become self-aware,
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u vezi s tim šta se dešava
kad mašine postanu svesne,
kad mašine postanu svesne,
06:48
and they decide to rise up and coordinate attacks against us.
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pa odluče da ustanu da se pobune protiv nas.
06:51
I'm going to start worrying about those
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O ovim stvarima počeću da brinem
06:53
the day my computer becomes aware of my printer.
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dana kad moj kompjuter
postane svestan štampača.
postane svestan štampača.
06:56
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(Smeh) (Aplauz)
07:00
So this is not the set of challenges we really need to worry about.
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Dakle, to nije problem koji zabrinjava.
07:03
To tell you the kinds of societal challenges
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Da bih vam rekao kakvi
društveni problemi
društveni problemi
07:06
that are going to come up in the new machine age,
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dolaze sa novom mašinskom erom,
07:08
I want to tell a story about two stereotypical American workers.
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želim prvo da ispričam jednu priču
o dva tipična američka radnika.
o dva tipična američka radnika.
07:12
And to make them really stereotypical,
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A da bih mogao da ih prikažem
kao stereotipe,
kao stereotipe,
07:13
let's make them both white guys.
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recimo da su u pitanju dva belca.
07:15
And the first one is a college-educated
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Prvi je završio fakultet,
07:19
professional, creative type, manager,
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profesionalac, kreativan tip, menadžer,
07:22
engineer, doctor, lawyer, that kind of worker.
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inženjer, doktor, advokat,
ta vrsta radnika.
ta vrsta radnika.
07:25
We're going to call him "Ted."
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Zvaćemo ga "Ted."
07:28
He's at the top of the American middle class.
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On je sa vrha američke srednje klase.
07:30
His counterpart is not college-educated
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Njegov kolega nije fakultetski obrazovan
07:33
and works as a laborer, works as a clerk,
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i radi kao običan radnik, službenik,
07:36
does low-level white collar or blue collar work in the economy.
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radi kao niži administrativac
ili radi u privredi.
ili radi u privredi.
07:39
We're going to call that guy "Bill."
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Zvaćemo ga "Bil."
07:41
And if you go back about 50 years,
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Ako se vratite za oko 50 godina unazad,
07:44
Bill and Ted were leading remarkably similar lives.
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Bil i Ted su živeli dosta sličnim životom.
07:47
For example, in 1960 they were both very likely
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Na primer, 1960-ih,
obojica su vrlo verovatno imali
obojica su vrlo verovatno imali
07:50
to have full-time jobs, working at least 40 hours a week.
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stalan posao,
radeći najmanje 40 sati nedeljno.
radeći najmanje 40 sati nedeljno.
07:53
But as the social researcher Charles Murray has documented,
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Ali kao što je istraživač sociolog
Čarls Mari zabeležio,
Čarls Mari zabeležio,
07:57
as we started to automate the economy,
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što smo više automatizovali privredu,
07:59
and 1960 is just about when computers started to be used by businesses,
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a 1960-te su godine
kad kompjuteri ulaze u poslovanje,
kad kompjuteri ulaze u poslovanje,
08:04
as we started to progressively inject technology
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kako smo počeli da ubrzano
implementiramo tehnologiju
implementiramo tehnologiju
08:07
and automation and digital stuff into the economy,
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i automatizaciju i digitalni svet u privredu,
08:09
the fortunes of Bill and Ted diverged a lot.
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sudbine Bila i Teda su se razišle.
08:12
Over this time frame, Ted has continued
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Tokom ovog vremenskog okvira,
Ted i dalje
Ted i dalje
08:14
to hold a full-time job. Bill hasn't.
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ima stalan posao. Bil nema.
08:17
In many cases, Bill has left the economy entirely,
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U mnogo slučajeva,
Bil je potpuno napustio privredu,
Bil je potpuno napustio privredu,
08:21
and Ted very rarely has.
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dok je to Ted retko činio.
08:24
Over time, Ted's marriage has stayed quite happy.
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Kroz vreme,
Todov brak ostao je prilično srećan,
Todov brak ostao je prilično srećan,
08:27
Bill's hasn't.
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Bilov nije.
08:29
And Ted's kids have grown up in a two-parent home,
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Tedova deca su odrasla
u domu sa oba svoja roditelja,
u domu sa oba svoja roditelja,
08:32
while Bill's absolutely have not over time.
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dok Bilova deca nisu.
08:35
Other ways that Bill is dropping out of society?
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Još neki dokaz da Bil ispada iz društva?
08:38
He's decreased his voting in presidential elections,
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Sve ređe izlazi na izbore
08:41
and he's started to go to prison a lot more often.
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i sve češće ide u zatvor.
08:45
So I cannot tell a happy story about these social trends,
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Nemam priču sa srećnim krajem
u vezi sa ovim društvenim tendencijama,
u vezi sa ovim društvenim tendencijama,
08:49
and they don't show any signs of reversing themselves.
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a takođe ni one ne pokazuju
suprotne težnje.
suprotne težnje.
08:52
They're also true no matter which ethnic group
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Tačne su bez obzira na etničku pripadnost
08:55
or demographic group we look at,
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ili demografsku grupu koju gledamo,
08:57
and they're actually getting so severe
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2076
i postaju tako ozbiljne
08:59
that they're in danger of overwhelming
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da postoji teškoća
u njihovom prevazilaženju
u njihovom prevazilaženju
09:00
even the amazing progress we made with the Civil Rights Movement.
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čak i uz napredak koji smo učinili
sa pokretom za Građanska prava.
sa pokretom za Građanska prava.
09:04
And what my friends in Silicon Valley
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2512
I ono što moji prijatelji
iz Silicijumske doline
iz Silicijumske doline
09:07
and Cambridge are overlooking is that they're Ted.
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i Kembridža previđaju,
jeste da su oni Ted.
jeste da su oni Ted.
09:12
They're living these amazingly busy, productive lives,
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Žive te svoje potpuno okupirane,
produktivne živote,
produktivne živote,
09:15
and they've got all the benefits to show from that,
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i imaju sve predosti toga,
09:18
while Bill is leading a very different life.
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dok Bil vodi drugačiji život.
09:20
They're actually both proof of how right Voltaire was
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Oni su zapravo dokaz
da je Volter bio u pravu
da je Volter bio u pravu
09:22
when he talked about the benefits of work,
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kada je pričao o prednostima posla,
09:25
and the fact that it saves us from not one but three great evils.
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i činjenici da nas on spašava ne jednog,
već od tri zla.
već od tri zla.
09:28
["Work saves a man from three great evils: boredom, vice and need." — Voltaire]
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556630
997
["Posao spašava čoveka od tri velika zla:
dosade, poroka i potreba." - Volter]
dosade, poroka i potreba." - Volter]
09:29
So with these challenges, what do we do about them?
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Šta ćemo uraditi sa ovim izazovima?
09:32
The economic playbook is surprisingly clear,
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Privredna pravila su iznenađujuće jasna,
09:35
surprisingly straightforward, in the short term especially.
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i iznenađujuće jednostavna,
posebno u kraćem roku.
posebno u kraćem roku.
09:38
The robots are not going to take all of our jobs in the next year or two,
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Roboti neće preuzeti sve naše poslove
u narednih godinu-dve,
u narednih godinu-dve,
09:41
so the classic Econ 101 playbook is going to work just fine:
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te će klasični udžbenik osnova ekonomije
funkcionisati sasvim dobro:
funkcionisati sasvim dobro:
09:46
Encourage entrepreneurship,
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2152
podsticati preduzetništvo,
09:48
double down on infrastructure,
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udvostručiti infrastrukturu,
09:50
and make sure we're turning out people
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i postarati se da proizvodimo ljude
09:52
from our educational system with the appropriate skills.
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koji su adekvatno osposobljeni
obrazovanjem.
obrazovanjem.
09:55
But over the longer term, if we are moving into an economy
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583690
3277
Ali na duge staze,
ako uđemo u privredu,
ako uđemo u privredu,
09:58
that's heavy on technology and light on labor,
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2652
koja ima mnogo tehnologije
i malo ljudskog rada,
i malo ljudskog rada,
10:01
and we are, then we have to consider
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2428
a to je neminovno,
onda moramo razmotriti
onda moramo razmotriti
10:04
some more radical interventions,
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1784
i neke radikalnije poteze,
10:05
for example, something like a guaranteed minimum income.
222
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3199
na primer, nešto kao
garantovani minimalac.
garantovani minimalac.
10:09
Now, that's probably making some folk in this room uncomfortable,
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3712
Nekima će ovo biti neprijatno,
10:12
because that idea is associated with the extreme left wing
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600742
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zbog toga što je sama ova ideja
povezana sa ekstremnom levicom
povezana sa ekstremnom levicom
10:16
and with fairly radical schemes for redistributing wealth.
225
604599
3219
i prilično drastičnim planom
za preraspodelu dobara.
za preraspodelu dobara.
10:19
I did a little bit of research on this notion,
226
607818
1953
Malo sam istraživao,
10:21
and it might calm some folk down to know that
227
609771
2455
i može nas umiriti
to što znamo da je
to što znamo da je
10:24
the idea of a net guaranteed minimum income
228
612226
2632
ideja o neto garantovanom
minimalnom prihodu,
minimalnom prihodu,
10:26
has been championed by those frothing-at-the-mouth socialists
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3162
povezana sa zapenjenim socijalistima,
10:30
Friedrich Hayek, Richard Nixon and Milton Friedman.
230
618035
5473
Fridrihom Hajekom, Ričardom Niksonom,
Miltonom Fridmenom.
Miltonom Fridmenom.
10:35
And if you find yourself worried
231
623508
1879
I ako se brinete
10:37
that something like a guaranteed income
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3309
da će nešto kao
garantovani minalni prihod
garantovani minalni prihod
10:40
is going to stifle our drive to succeed
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628696
2275
ugušiti težnju za uspehom,
10:42
and make us kind of complacent,
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1764
i učiniti nas na neki način zadovoljnim,
10:44
you might be interested to know that social mobility,
235
632735
2790
možda ćete biti zainteresovani za činjenicu
da je društvena pokretljivost,
da je društvena pokretljivost,
10:47
one of the things we really pride ourselves on in the United States,
236
635525
2675
jedna od stvari
kojom se zaista ponosimo u SAD-u,
kojom se zaista ponosimo u SAD-u,
10:50
is now lower than it is in the northern European countries
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638200
3340
sada manja nego u zemljama
severne Evrope
severne Evrope
10:53
that have these very generous social safety nets.
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3199
koje imaju vrlo velikodušnu socijalnu zaštitu.
10:56
So the economic playbook is actually pretty straightforward.
239
644739
2792
Privredna pravila su prilično jednostavna.
10:59
The societal one is a lot more challenging.
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Društvena su mnogo izazovnija.
11:02
I don't know what the playbook is
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2148
Ne znam šta su pravila
11:04
for getting Bill to engage and stay engaged throughout life.
242
652735
3828
za omogućavanje Bilu da se uključi
i ostane takav kroz život.
i ostane takav kroz život.
11:08
I do know that education is a huge part of it.
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2504
Ali znam da obrazovanje
igra veliku ulogu.
igra veliku ulogu.
11:11
I witnessed this firsthand.
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1780
Svedok sam toga iz prve ruke.
11:12
I was a Montessori kid for the first few years of my education,
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Bio sam u Montesori programu
prvih godina svog obrazovanja,
prvih godina svog obrazovanja,
11:16
and what that education taught me
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664603
1529
i ono čemu me je
to obrazovanje naučilo,
to obrazovanje naučilo,
11:18
is that the world is an interesting place
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2091
je da je svet interesantno mesto,
11:20
and my job is to go explore it.
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2641
a moja svrha je da ga istražim.
11:22
The school stopped in third grade,
249
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1701
Takva škola prestaje u trećem razredu,
11:24
so then I entered the public school system,
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2068
kada upisujem državnu školu,
11:26
and it felt like I had been sent to the Gulag.
251
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4366
a osećam se kao da sam poslat
u Gulag.
u Gulag.
11:30
With the benefit of hindsight, I now know the job
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2901
Sa sadašnjim iskustvom, znam da je
11:33
was to prepare me for life as a clerk or a laborer,
253
681900
2514
to trebalo da me pripremi
za život radnika,
za život radnika,
11:36
but at the time it felt like the job was to kind of
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2330
ali sam tad mislio da će me
11:38
bore me into some submission with what was going on around me.
255
686744
3824
ubiti od dosade i pokoriti.
11:42
We have to do better than this.
256
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1348
Moramo uraditi nešto bolje.
11:43
We cannot keep turning out Bills.
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3676
Ne možemo da stvaramo samo radnike.
11:47
So we see some green shoots that things are getting better.
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2344
A vidimo neke izdanke ka boljitku.
11:49
We see technology deeply impacting education
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2824
Tehnologija duboko utiče na obrazovanje,
11:52
and engaging people, from our youngest learners
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700760
2528
a koriste je ljudi
od najmlađih učeničkih dana
od najmlađih učeničkih dana
11:55
up to our oldest ones.
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703288
1764
do najstarijih.
11:57
We see very prominent business voices telling us
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2620
Vidimo da ugledni poslovni ljudi govore
11:59
we need to rethink some of the things that we've been holding dear for a while.
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3216
da treba ponovo razmislimo o stvarima
koje volimo već dugo.
koje volimo već dugo.
12:02
And we see very serious and sustained
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710888
2260
I vidimo vrlo ozbiljne i konstantne
12:05
and data-driven efforts to understand
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2804
napore podržane podacima,
za razumevanje
za razumevanje
12:07
how to intervene in some of the most troubled communities that we have.
266
715952
3543
načina intervenisanja u nekim
najkritičnijim zajednicama.
najkritičnijim zajednicama.
12:11
So the green shoots are out there.
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2209
Dakle, počeci postoje.
12:13
I don't want to pretend for a minute
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1434
Ja ne želim ni malo da se pretvaram
12:15
that what we have is going to be enough.
269
723138
1942
da je ovo što imamo dovoljno.
12:17
We're facing very tough challenges.
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2142
Suočeni smo s teškim izazovima.
12:19
To give just one example, there are about five million Americans
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727222
3106
Da dam samo jedan primer,
postoji oko pet miliona
postoji oko pet miliona
12:22
who have been unemployed for at least six months.
272
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2814
Amerikanaca koji su nezaposleni
bar šest meseci.
bar šest meseci.
12:25
We're not going to fix things for them
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1342
Nećemo popraviti njihovu situaciju
12:26
by sending them back to Montessori.
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734484
2443
tako što ćemo ih poslati
nazad u Montesori.
nazad u Montesori.
12:28
And my biggest worry is that we're creating a world
275
736927
2355
A moja najveća briga
je to što mi stvaramo svet
je to što mi stvaramo svet
12:31
where we're going to have glittering technologies
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2549
gde ćemo imati sjajne tehnologije
12:33
embedded in kind of a shabby society
277
741831
2305
ugrađene u zastarelo društvo
12:36
and supported by an economy that generates inequality
278
744136
2967
koje podržava privreda
koja protežira nejednakost
koja protežira nejednakost
12:39
instead of opportunity.
279
747103
1481
umesto prilika.
12:40
But I actually don't think that's what we're going to do.
280
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2752
Ali svakako da ne mislim
da je to ono što ćemo i učiniti.
da je to ono što ćemo i učiniti.
12:43
I think we're going to do something a lot better
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1629
Mislim da ćemo uraditi nešto mnogo bolje,
12:44
for one very straightforward reason:
282
752965
2110
iz jednog jednostavnog razloga:
12:47
The facts are getting out there.
283
755075
1968
činjenice postaju poznate.
12:49
The realities of this new machine age
284
757043
2042
Realnost ovog modernog doba mašina
12:51
and the change in the economy are becoming more widely known.
285
759085
3315
i promene u privredi postaju široko prepoznate.
12:54
If we wanted to accelerate that process, we could do things
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2851
Ako želimo da ubrzamo taj proces, možemo
12:57
like have our best economists and policymakers
287
765251
2766
pustiti najbolje ekonomiste i zakonodavce
13:00
play "Jeopardy!" against Watson.
288
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2419
da igraju kviz protiv Votsona.
13:02
We could send Congress on an autonomous car road trip.
289
770436
3550
Možemo poslati Kongres
na putovanje kolima bez vozača.
na putovanje kolima bez vozača.
13:05
And if we do enough of these kinds of things,
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1653
Ako uradimo dovoljno ovakvih stvari,
13:07
the awareness is going to sink in that things are going to be different.
291
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3404
razviće se svest
da će stvari biti drugačije.
da će stvari biti drugačije.
13:11
And then we're off to the races,
292
779043
1771
I onda idemo na takmičenje,
13:12
because I don't believe for a second
293
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2430
jer ne verujem ni trenutka
13:15
that we have forgotten how to solve tough challenges
294
783244
2968
da smo zaboravili
da rešavamo teške izazove
da rešavamo teške izazove
13:18
or that we have become too apathetic or hard-hearted to even try.
295
786212
4350
ili da smo postali apatični ili tvrdog srca
da bismo i pokušali.
da bismo i pokušali.
13:22
I started my talk with quotes from wordsmiths
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2394
Počeo sam svoj govor rečima mudraca,
13:24
who were separated by an ocean and a century.
297
792956
2816
koje su razdvajali okean i vek.
13:27
Let me end it with words from politicians
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2152
Završiću rečima političara
13:29
who were similarly distant.
299
797924
1731
koji su bili slično udaljeni.
13:31
Winston Churchill came to my home of MIT in 1949,
300
799655
3333
Vinston Čerčil je došao na
Tehnološki Institut Masačusetsa 1949.,
Tehnološki Institut Masačusetsa 1949.,
13:34
and he said, "If we are to bring the broad masses
301
802988
2148
i rekao: "Da treba da dovedemo
izobilje
izobilje
13:37
of the people in every land to the table of abundance,
302
805136
3710
širokim narodnim masama
svih zemalja,
svih zemalja,
13:40
it can only be by the tireless improvement
303
808846
3030
to možemo učiniti samo
konstantnim napretkom
konstantnim napretkom
13:43
of all of our means of technical production."
304
811876
2973
naše tehničke proizvodnje."
13:46
Abraham Lincoln realized there was one other ingredient.
305
814849
2619
Abraham Linkoln je shvatio
da postoji jedan drugi sastojak.
da postoji jedan drugi sastojak.
13:49
He said, "I am a firm believer in the people.
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2898
Rekao je: "Ja čvrsto verujem u ljude.
13:52
If given the truth, they can be depended upon
307
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2333
Ako im se da istina,
možemo se osloniti
možemo se osloniti
13:54
to meet any national crisis.
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2369
da će prevazići svaku nacionalnu krizu.
13:57
The great point is to give them the plain facts."
309
825068
2784
Suština je dati im činjenice."
13:59
So the optimistic note, great point that I want to leave you with
310
827852
3110
Optimistička poruka
sa kojom bih vas ostavio
sa kojom bih vas ostavio
14:02
is that the plain facts of the machine age are becoming clear,
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je to da su činjenice
o mašinskom vremenu jasne,
o mašinskom vremenu jasne,
14:06
and I have every confidence that we're going to use them
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a ja verujem da će nam koristiti
14:08
to chart a good course into the challenging,
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u odabiru dobrog puta u izazovnu
14:11
abundant economy that we're creating.
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i bogatu privredu koju stvaramo.
14:14
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam na pažnji.
14:15
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Andrew McAfee - Management theoristAndrew McAfee studies how information technology affects businesses and society.
Why you should listen
Andrew McAfee studies the ways that information technology (IT) affects businesses, business as a whole, and the larger society. His research investigates how IT changes the way companies perform, organize themselves and compete. At a higher level, his work also investigates how computerization affects competition, society, the economy and the workforce.
He's a principal research scientist at the Center for Digital Business at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His books include Enterprise 2.0 and Race Against the Machine (with Erik Brynjolfsson). Read more on his blog.
Andrew McAfee | Speaker | TED.com