ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Andrew McAfee - Management theorist
Andrew McAfee studies how information technology affects businesses and society.

Why you should listen

Andrew McAfee studies the ways that information technology (IT) affects businesses, business as a whole, and the larger society. His research investigates how IT changes the way companies perform, organize themselves and compete. At a higher level, his work also investigates how computerization affects competition, society, the economy and the workforce.

He's a principal research scientist at the Center for Digital Business at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His books include Enterprise 2.0 and Race Against the Machine (with Erik Brynjolfsson). Read more on his blog.

 

More profile about the speaker
Andrew McAfee | Speaker | TED.com
TED2013

Andrew McAfee: What will future jobs look like?

Andrew McAfee: 未来的工作会是什么样?

Filmed:
4,442,966 views

经济学家Andrew McAfee认为,人工智能的发展会替代我们的工作,或者至少是我们目前所知的工作。在他充满远见的演讲中,他描述了未来工作可能会是如何,在发展趋势中已经突显出来的社会挑战,以及我们应该怎样教育下一代,来更好的适应它们。
- Management theorist
Andrew McAfee studies how information technology affects businesses and society. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
The writer作家 George乔治 Eliot艾略特 cautioned警告 us that,
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作家乔治·艾略特提醒我们,
00:15
among其中 all forms形式 of mistake错误,
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在所有形式的错误中,
00:17
prophesy预言 is the most gratuitous免费的.
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预言是最没有理由的。
00:19
The person that we would all acknowledge确认
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我们都熟知的
00:21
as her 20th-centuryTH-世纪 counterpart副本, Yogi瑜珈 Berra贝拉, agreed同意.
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20世纪的尤吉·贝拉,也同意这点。
00:25
He said, "It's tough强硬 to make predictions预测,
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他说,“很难做出预测,
00:27
especially特别 about the future未来."
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尤其是关于未来"。
00:30
I'm going to ignore忽视 their cautions注意事项
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不过我要无视这些提醒
00:32
and make one very specific具体 forecast预测.
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并作出一个非常具体的预测。
00:34
In the world世界 that we are creating创建 very quickly很快,
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当今世界我们正在飞速创造,
00:36
we're going to see more and more things
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我们会看到越来越多的新事物
00:38
that look like science科学 fiction小说,
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看起来像是科幻小说,
00:40
and fewer and fewer things that look like jobs工作.
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以及越来越少看起来像工作的事物。
00:43
Our cars汽车 are very quickly很快 going to start开始 driving主动 themselves他们自己,
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我们的车很快要开始自动驾驶,
00:46
which哪一个 means手段 we're going to need fewer truck卡车 drivers司机.
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这意味着我们用不着那么多的卡车司机了。
00:48
We're going to hook SiriSiri的 up to Watson沃森
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我们要把Siri和沃森(人工智能程序)结合
00:51
and use that to automate自动化 a lot of the work
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用它来自动完成大量的工作
00:53
that's currently目前 doneDONE by customer顾客 service服务 reps代表
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而这些工作目前通过客服人员
00:55
and troubleshooters疑难解答 and diagnosers诊断器,
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维修人员和分析师来完成,
00:58
and we're already已经 taking服用 R2D2,
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我们就已经造出了R2D2,
01:00
painting绘画 him orange橙子, and putting him to work
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把它涂成橙色,让它去工作
01:04
carrying携带 shelves货架 around warehouses仓库,
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将货架运往各地仓库,
01:06
which哪一个 means手段 we need a lot fewer people
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这意味着我们需越来越少的人
01:08
to be walking步行 up and down those aisles过道.
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在那些通道上走来走去。
01:10
Now, for about 200 years年份,
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迄今为止的 200多年,
01:14
people have been saying exactly究竟 what I'm telling告诉 you --
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人们一直在热议我现在所说的内容
01:16
the age年龄 of technological技术性 unemployment失业 is at hand
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关于“技术性失业”的时代已经来临 — —
01:19
starting开始 with the Luddites勒德分子 smashing looms织机 in Britain英国
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始于卢德派(反科技人士)在英国捣毁织布机
01:22
just about two centuries百年 ago,
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这发生在大约两个世纪前,
01:23
and they have been wrong错误.
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但他们的预言错了。
01:25
Our economies经济 in the developed发达 world世界 have coasted优哉 along沿
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我们一路至今的经济发展
01:28
on something pretty漂亮 close to full充分 employment雇用.
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几乎是接近充分就业。
01:30
Which哪一个 brings带来 up a critical危急 question:
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这就引申出一个关键的问题:
01:32
Why is this time different不同, if it really is?
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如果技术性失业是真的,那预言为何没有成真?
01:35
The reason原因 it's different不同 is that, just in the past过去 few少数 years年份,
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导致现实与预言不符的原因是,我们的机器
01:38
our machines have started开始 demonstrating示范 skills技能
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在最近几年才开始展示出前所未有的技能
01:40
they have never, ever had before:
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这些技能包括:
01:43
understanding理解, speaking请讲, hearing听力, seeing眼看,
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理解、说话、 听、 看、
01:46
answering回答, writing写作, and they're still acquiring收购 new skills技能.
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应答、 写作,并且他们还在掌握新的技能。
01:50
For example, mobile移动 humanoid人形 robots机器人
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例如,移动的仿人机器人
01:53
are still incredibly令人难以置信 primitive原始,
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仍然很原始
01:55
but the research研究 arm of the Defense防御 Department
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但国防部的研究机构
01:57
just launched推出 a competition竞争
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刚刚启动了一项竞赛
01:58
to have them do things like this,
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要这些机器人做上面的工作,
02:00
and if the track跟踪 record记录 is any guide指南,
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如果跟踪记录是可以借鉴的,
02:02
this competition竞争 is going to be successful成功.
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这次竞赛将会非常成功。
02:05
So when I look around, I think the day is not too far off at all
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所以当我环顾四周,我觉得那天是不远了
02:08
when we're going to have androids机器人
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当我们通过机器人
02:10
doing a lot of the work that we are doing right now.
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做了很多我们现在在做的工作。
02:13
And we're creating创建 a world世界 where there is going to be
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我们正在创造一个的技术越来越丰富
02:17
more and more technology技术 and fewer and fewer jobs工作.
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就业机会却越来越少的新世界
02:21
It's a world世界 that Erik埃里克 Brynjolfsson布林约尔松 and I are calling调用
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我和埃里克 · 布赖恩试图将其命名为
02:23
"the new machine age年龄."
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"新机器时代"。
02:24
The thing to keep in mind心神 is that
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要牢记的是,
02:27
this is absolutely绝对 great news新闻.
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这是非常好的消息。
02:29
This is the best最好 economic经济 news新闻 on the planet行星 these days.
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这是地球上最好的经济新闻。
02:32
Not that there's a lot of competition竞争, right?
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你会认为机器人带来了竞争,不是吗?
02:36
This is the best最好 economic经济 news新闻 we have these days
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为何是最好的经济新闻
02:38
for two main主要 reasons原因.
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有两个主要原因。
02:39
The first is, technological技术性 progress进展 is what allows允许 us
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第一是,技术进步使得我们
02:42
to continue继续 this amazing惊人 recent最近 run that we're on
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继续维持令人惊叹的产出
02:46
where output产量 goes up over time,
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随着时间推移继续前进,
02:49
while at the same相同 time, prices价格 go down,
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与此同时,物价却开始下降,
02:52
and volume and quality质量 just continue继续 to explode爆炸.
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数量和质量都持续上升。
02:56
Now, some people look at this and talk about
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现在,有些人看到这个会联想到
02:58
shallow materialism唯物主义,
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浅层的唯物主义,
03:00
but that's absolutely绝对 the wrong错误 way to look at it.
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但这绝对是错误的理解方式。
03:02
This is abundance丰富, which哪一个 is exactly究竟
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这种物质丰富
03:05
what we want our economic经济 system系统 to provide提供.
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正是我们对现有经济体系的期待。
03:08
The second第二 reason原因 that the new machine age年龄
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第二个主要原因,
03:11
is such这样 great news新闻 is that, once一旦 the androids机器人
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一旦机器人
03:14
start开始 doing jobs工作, we don't have to do them anymore,
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开始承担工作,我们就不需要再插手,
03:17
and we get freed释放 up from drudgery苦差事 and toil辛劳.
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我们可以从辛苦的劳动中解放出来。
03:21
Now, when I talk about this with my friends朋友
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现在,当我与剑桥和硅谷的朋友提起此事
03:23
in Cambridge剑桥 and Silicon Valley, they say,
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他们认为,
03:25
"Fantastic奇妙. No more drudgery苦差事, no more toil辛劳.
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"太棒了。从此再没有辛苦,再没有劳累
03:27
This gives us the chance机会 to imagine想像
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这给了我们去想象
03:29
an entirely完全 different不同 kind of society社会,
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一种全然不同的社会的机会
03:32
a society社会 where the creators创作者 and the discoverers发现者
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那里,创造者和发现者
03:35
and the performers表演者 and the innovators创新
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表演者和创新者
03:36
come together一起 with their patrons食客 and their financiers金融家
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与他们的赞助人和金融家们在一起
03:40
to talk about issues问题, entertain招待, enlighten开导,
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谈论的热门话题,娱乐和启蒙,
03:43
provoke each other."
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彼此启迪"。
03:45
It's a society社会 really, that looks容貌 a lot like the TEDTED Conference会议.
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这样的社会,看起来很像 TED 大会。
03:49
And there's actually其实 a huge巨大 amount of truth真相 here.
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实际上大量的真相就在这里。
03:52
We are seeing眼看 an amazing惊人 flourishing芊芊 taking服用 place地点.
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我们看到了令人惊异的蓬勃发展。
03:55
In a world世界 where it is just about as easy简单
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在这个我们可以像
03:57
to generate生成 an object目的 as it is to print打印 a document文件,
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打印文档一样生成物体的世界,
04:00
we have amazing惊人 new possibilities可能性.
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我们有令人惊异的无限可能。
04:02
The people who used to be craftsmen工匠 and hobbyists爱好者
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那些曾经的手艺人和业余爱好者
04:06
are now makers制造商, and they're responsible主管
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现在是决策者
04:08
for massive大规模的 amounts of innovation革新.
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负责大量的创新工作。
04:10
And artists艺术家 who were formerly以前 constrained受限
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那些以前受到各种限制的艺术家
04:13
can now do things that were never, ever possible可能
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可以尝试前所未有有的创作
04:16
for them before.
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远胜先人。
04:18
So this is a time of great flourishing芊芊,
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所以这是一个伟大的时期,
04:20
and the more I look around, the more convinced相信 I become成为
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我们环顾四周,越发相信
04:23
that this quote引用, from the physicist物理学家 Freeman弗里曼 Dyson戴森,
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物理学家弗里曼 · 戴森的箴言
04:26
is not hyperbole夸张 at all.
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一点都不夸张。
04:28
This is just a plain statement声明 of the facts事实.
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它只是对事实的平实陈述而已。
04:31
We are in the middle中间 of an astonishing惊人 period.
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我们正处在一个非常时期。
04:32
["Technology技术 is a gift礼品 of God. After the gift礼品 of life it is perhaps也许 the greatest最大 of God's gifts礼品. It is the mother母亲 of civilizations文明, of arts艺术 and of sciences科学." — Freeman弗里曼 Dyson戴森]
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["技术是上帝的恩赐,是仅次于“生命”的恩典。它是文明、 艺术和科学的母亲"— — 弗里曼 · 戴森]
04:33
Which哪一个 brings带来 up another另一个 great question:
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这就引出另一个大问题:
04:36
What could possibly或者 go wrong错误 in this new machine age年龄?
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在这新的机器时代,哪些东西会走上岔路?
04:39
Right? Great, hang up, flourish繁荣, go home.
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对吧?太好了,蓬勃发展,回家去。
04:42
We're going to face面对 two really thorny多刺的 sets of challenges挑战
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我们要面对两大棘手的挑战
04:45
as we head deeper更深 into the future未来 that we're creating创建.
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当进一步靠近我们正在创造的未来
04:48
The first are economic经济, and they're really nicely很好 summarized总结
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首先是经济方面,
04:51
in an apocryphal杜撰 story故事 about a back-and-forth来来回回
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这通过一个杜撰的故事已经有很好的总结
04:54
between之间 Henry亨利 Ford IIII and Walter沃尔特 Reuther鲁瑟,
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故事关于亨利 · 福特二世(汽车生产商)
04:57
who was the head of the auto汽车 workers工人 union联盟.
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和沃尔特·鲁瑟,汽车工人工会的领袖。
05:00
They were touring旅游 one of the new modern现代 factories工厂,
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他们一起参观最现代化的汽车工厂,
05:02
and Ford playfully开玩笑 turns to Reuther鲁瑟 and says,
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然后福特开玩笑地对鲁瑟说:
05:05
"Hey Walter沃尔特, how are you going to get these robots机器人
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"嘿,沃尔特,你怎么让这些机器人
05:07
to pay工资 union联盟 dues?"
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来支付工会会费?"
05:09
And Reuther鲁瑟 shoots back, "Hey Henry亨利,
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鲁瑟回答,"嘿,亨利
05:11
how are you going to get them to buy购买 cars汽车?"
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你怎么能让他们买你的车?"
05:15
Reuther's鲁瑟的 problem问题 in that anecdote轶事
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在这个故事中,鲁瑟面临的问题
05:18
is that it is tough强硬 to offer提供 your labor劳动 to an economy经济
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实质上是面对一个充满机器的经济体
05:22
that's full充分 of machines,
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很难去提供人的劳动。
05:24
and we see this very clearly明确地 in the statistics统计.
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我们可以在统计数据中,非常清楚地看到。
05:26
If you look over the past过去 couple一对 decades几十年
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在过去的几十年
05:29
at the returns回报 to capital首都 -- in other words, corporate企业 profits利润 --
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资本收益 — — 换言之,企业利润 — —
05:32
we see them going up,
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我们看到它们在增长,
05:34
and we see that they're now at an all-time整天 high.
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而且目前正是历史最高水平。
05:36
If we look at the returns回报 to labor劳动, in other words
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如果我们对比一下劳动力,换句话说
05:39
total wages工资 paid支付 out in the economy经济,
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在经济体中,总工资的发放,
05:41
we see them at an all-time整天 low
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我们看到这一数据是空前的低
05:43
and heading标题 very quickly很快 in the opposite对面 direction方向.
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两者非常迅速地朝着相反方向偏离。
05:46
So this is clearly明确地 bad news新闻 for Reuther鲁瑟.
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所以这就是鲁瑟的坏消息(工人少,会费少)。
05:48
It looks容貌 like it might威力 be great news新闻 for Ford,
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但看起来它可能是福特的好消息,
05:52
but it's actually其实 not. If you want to sell
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然而实际上不是。如果你想要卖出
05:54
huge巨大 volumes of somewhat有些 expensive昂贵 goods产品 to people,
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数量巨大的昂贵商品,
05:57
you really want a large, stable稳定, prosperous繁荣 middle中间 class.
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你需要一个大型的、 稳定的、 繁荣的中产阶级。
06:01
We have had one of those in America美国
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经历了整个战后时期
06:03
for just about the entire整个 postwar战后 period.
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美国已经形成了这样一个中产阶级
06:06
But the middle中间 class is clearly明确地 under huge巨大 threat威胁 right now.
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但中产阶层显然正处在巨大的威胁中。
06:10
We all know a lot of the statistics统计,
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我们都知道很多统计数据,
06:12
but just to repeat重复 one of them,
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只提其中一个,
06:14
median中位数 income收入 in America美国 has actually其实 gone走了 down
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在美国,中产阶级收入的减少
06:17
over the past过去 15 years年份,
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已经持续了15年,
06:18
and we're in danger危险 of getting得到 trapped被困
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我们处在陷入持续恶化的
06:20
in some vicious恶毒 cycle周期 where inequality不等式 and polarization极化
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不平等与两极分化的
06:24
continue继续 to go up over time.
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恶性循环的危险之中
06:27
The societal社会的 challenges挑战 that come along沿
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这些伴随不平等现象带来的
06:30
with that kind of inequality不等式 deserve值得 some attention注意.
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社会挑战值得关注。
06:32
There are a set of societal社会的 challenges挑战
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相比这些严峻的社会挑战
06:34
that I'm actually其实 not that worried担心 about,
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我倒不会担心这种
06:36
and they're captured捕获 by images图片 like this.
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被机器人逆袭的危险。
06:38
This is not the kind of societal社会的 problem问题
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这不是我所担心的
06:40
that I am concerned关心 about.
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那种社会问题。
06:42
There is no shortage短缺 of dystopian反乌托邦 visions愿景
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这个世界从不缺
06:45
about what happens发生 when our machines become成为 self-aware自我意识,
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当我们的机器拥有自我意识,
06:48
and they decide决定 to rise上升 up and coordinate坐标 attacks攻击 against反对 us.
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并决定崛起和发动对我们的攻击的反乌托邦式幻想
06:51
I'm going to start开始 worrying令人担忧 about those
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但我要开始担心的是
06:53
the day my computer电脑 becomes aware知道的 of my printer打印机.
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某一天我的电脑知道了打印机的存在。
06:56
(Laughter笑声) (Applause掌声)
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(笑声)(掌声)
07:00
So this is not the set of challenges挑战 we really need to worry担心 about.
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所以机器人的进攻并不是我们真正需要担心的。
07:03
To tell you the kinds of societal社会的 challenges挑战
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为了让大家对新机器时代的社会挑战
07:06
that are going to come up in the new machine age年龄,
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有更好的理解
07:08
I want to tell a story故事 about two stereotypical定型 American美国 workers工人.
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我想讲一个故事,关于两个典型的美国工人。
07:12
And to make them really stereotypical定型,
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为了使它们真正典型,
07:13
let's make them both white白色 guys.
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我们假设他们是两个白人。
07:15
And the first one is a college-educated受过大学教育
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第一个是接受大学教育
07:19
professional专业的, creative创作的 type类型, manager经理,
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专业的、 创造性的类型,
07:22
engineer工程师, doctor医生, lawyer律师, that kind of worker工人.
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管理者,工程师、 医生、 律师、 代表这类人群。
07:25
We're going to call him "Ted摊晒."
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我们称他为"Ted"。
07:28
He's at the top最佳 of the American美国 middle中间 class.
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他处在美国中产阶级的顶层。
07:30
His counterpart副本 is not college-educated受过大学教育
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预制对应的是未经大学教育的
07:33
and works作品 as a laborer劳动者, works作品 as a clerk书记,
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普通工人和职员,
07:36
does low-level低级别 white白色 collar or blue蓝色 collar work in the economy经济.
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低级白领或蓝领工作者。
07:39
We're going to call that guy "Bill法案."
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我们称他为"Bill"。
07:41
And if you go back about 50 years年份,
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如果在 50 年前,
07:44
Bill法案 and Ted摊晒 were leading领导 remarkably异常 similar类似 lives生活.
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Bill和Ted这两种人的生活差别不大。
07:47
For example, in 1960 they were both very likely容易
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例如,在 1960 年他们两人都很有可能
07:50
to have full-time全职 jobs工作, working加工 at least最小 40 hours小时 a week.
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有全职工作,一周工作 40 个小时。
07:53
But as the social社会 researcher研究员 Charles查尔斯 Murray穆雷 has documented记录,
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但根据社会研究员查尔斯 · 默里的记载,
07:57
as we started开始 to automate自动化 the economy经济,
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当我们开始经济自动化,
07:59
and 1960 is just about when computers电脑 started开始 to be used by businesses企业,
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1960 年正是计算机开始进入商用,
08:04
as we started开始 to progressively逐步 inject注入 technology技术
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我们开始逐步将技术
08:07
and automation自动化 and digital数字 stuff东东 into the economy经济,
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自动化和数字化注入经济
08:09
the fortunes命运 of Bill法案 and Ted摊晒 diverged分歧 a lot.
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Bill和Ted的命运,偏离了很多。
08:12
Over this time frame, Ted摊晒 has continued继续
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在这时间轴上,Ted继续
08:14
to hold保持 a full-time全职 job工作. Bill法案 hasn't有没有.
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保持一份全职工作,Bill却没有。
08:17
In many许多 cases, Bill法案 has left the economy经济 entirely完全,
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在许多情况下,Bill已完全无法维持生计,
08:21
and Ted摊晒 very rarely很少 has.
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而Ted却几乎不会出现这种情况。
08:24
Over time, Ted's特德 marriage婚姻 has stayed quite相当 happy快乐.
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随着时间的推移,Ted的婚姻一直很快乐。
08:27
Bill's比尔 hasn't有没有.
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Bill却并非如此。
08:29
And Ted's特德 kids孩子 have grown长大的 up in a two-parent双亲 home,
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Ted的孩子们在双亲家庭中长大,
08:32
while Bill's比尔 absolutely绝对 have not over time.
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然而Bill的孩子却没有这么幸运。
08:35
Other ways方法 that Bill法案 is dropping落下 out of society社会?
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Bill会在其他方面与社会脱节吗?
08:38
He's decreased下降 his voting表决 in presidential总统 elections选举,
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越来越少的Bill参与总统选举的投票
08:41
and he's started开始 to go to prison监狱 a lot more often经常.
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越来越多的Bill开始光顾监狱。
08:45
So I cannot不能 tell a happy快乐 story故事 about these social社会 trends趋势,
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我没法给大家展示一个乐观的社会趋势
08:49
and they don't show显示 any signs迹象 of reversing倒车 themselves他们自己.
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而他们(Bills)也没有任何改变自己的迹象。
08:52
They're also true真正 no matter which哪一个 ethnic民族 group
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这是一个普遍的事实,无论是在哪一个民族
08:55
or demographic人口 group we look at,
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哪一个社会群体,
08:57
and they're actually其实 getting得到 so severe严重
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都已经变得如此严重
08:59
that they're in danger危险 of overwhelming压倒
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这才是我所说的压倒性的社会挑战
09:00
even the amazing惊人 progress进展 we made制作 with the Civil国内 Rights Movement运动.
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即便我们在公民权利运动中已经有所进展。
09:04
And what my friends朋友 in Silicon Valley
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而我在硅谷的朋友
09:07
and Cambridge剑桥 are overlooking俯瞰 is that they're Ted摊晒.
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在剑桥的朋友,他们就是Ted。
09:12
They're living活的 these amazingly令人惊讶 busy, productive生产的 lives生活,
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他们过着忙碌、 富有成效的生活,
09:15
and they've他们已经 got all the benefits好处 to show显示 from that,
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并从中受益,
09:18
while Bill法案 is leading领导 a very different不同 life.
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然而Bill却过着完全不同的生活。
09:20
They're actually其实 both proof证明 of how right Voltaire伏尔泰 was
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他们实际上都验证了伏尔泰的箴言
09:22
when he talked about the benefits好处 of work,
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伏尔泰论述工作的益处,
09:25
and the fact事实 that it saves节省 us from not one but three great evils罪恶.
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归功于,它将人类从三大罪恶中拯救。
09:28
["Work saves节省 a man from three great evils罪恶: boredom无聊, vice and need." — Voltaire伏尔泰]
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["工作把人从三大罪恶——无聊,堕落,贫乏——中拯救出来"— — 伏尔泰]
09:29
So with these challenges挑战, what do we do about them?
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那么,面对这些挑战,我们需要如何去做?
09:32
The economic经济 playbook剧本 is surprisingly出奇 clear明确,
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经济的剧本是出奇地明确,
09:35
surprisingly出奇 straightforward直截了当, in the short term术语 especially特别.
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直截了当,尤其是在短期内。
09:38
The robots机器人 are not going to take all of our jobs工作 in the next下一个 year or two,
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机器人还不至于在一两年内揽下我们所有的工作,
09:41
so the classic经典 Econ经济学 101 playbook剧本 is going to work just fine:
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所以经典的经济学剧本也可以发挥效用:
09:46
Encourage鼓励 entrepreneurship创业,
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鼓励创业精神,
09:48
double down on infrastructure基础设施,
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翻倍的基础设施建设,
09:50
and make sure we're turning车削 out people
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并确保我们正在提升我们自身,
09:52
from our educational教育性 system系统 with the appropriate适当 skills技能.
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通过教育制度培养相应的技能。
09:55
But over the longer term术语, if we are moving移动 into an economy经济
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但在长期看来,如果我们正在进入一个
09:58
that's heavy on technology技术 and light on labor劳动,
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重技术轻体力的经济体,
10:01
and we are, then we have to consider考虑
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那么我们就必须要考虑
10:04
some more radical激进 interventions干预措施,
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一些更激进的干预措施,
10:05
for example, something like a guaranteed保证 minimum最低限度 income收入.
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例如,最低收入保障。
10:09
Now, that's probably大概 making制造 some folk民间 in this room房间 uncomfortable不舒服,
223
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现在,这些可能会造成在坐各位的反感,
10:12
because that idea理念 is associated相关 with the extreme极端 left wing翅膀
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因为这种想法曾与极端左翼连在一起
10:16
and with fairly相当 radical激进 schemes方案 for redistributing重新分配 wealth财富.
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他们采用非常激进的手段,来重新分配财富。
10:19
I did a little bit of research研究 on this notion概念,
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我对此做了一些研究,
10:21
and it might威力 calm冷静 some folk民间 down to know that
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它可能会让一些民间的反感趋于冷静
10:24
the idea理念 of a net guaranteed保证 minimum最低限度 income收入
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最低收入保障的概念
10:26
has been championed倡导 by those frothing-at-the-mouth起泡,在这嘴 socialists社会主义者
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曾经被社会主义者们所拥护
10:30
Friedrich弗里德里希 Hayek哈耶克, Richard理查德 Nixon尼克松 and Milton米尔顿 Friedman弗里德曼.
230
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弗里德里克·哈耶克、 理查德 · 尼克松和米尔顿 · 弗里德曼。
10:35
And if you find yourself你自己 worried担心
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如果你发现自己正在担心
10:37
that something like a guaranteed保证 income收入
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诸如最低保障收入
10:40
is going to stifle窒息 our drive驾驶 to succeed成功
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正在扼杀我们成功的动力
10:42
and make us kind of complacent自满,
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让我们洋洋自得
10:44
you might威力 be interested有兴趣 to know that social社会 mobility流动性,
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你可能会有兴趣知道,社会的流动性,
10:47
one of the things we really pride自豪 ourselves我们自己 on in the United联合的 States状态,
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这在美国,是让我们引以为傲的方面
10:50
is now lower降低 than it is in the northern北方 European欧洲的 countries国家
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现在却比不上北欧的国家
10:53
that have these very generous慷慨 social社会 safety安全 nets.
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它们有着更为慷慨的社保网络。
10:56
So the economic经济 playbook剧本 is actually其实 pretty漂亮 straightforward直截了当.
239
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所以经济方面实际上相当简单。
10:59
The societal社会的 one is a lot more challenging具有挑战性的.
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社会方面却更具挑战。
11:02
I don't know what the playbook剧本 is
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我不知道设计怎样的社会剧本才能
11:04
for getting得到 Bill法案 to engage从事 and stay engaged订婚 throughout始终 life.
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让Bill重新参与和介入社会生活
11:08
I do know that education教育 is a huge巨大 part部分 of it.
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我只知道教育是不可或缺的一部分。
11:11
I witnessed目击 this firsthand第一手.
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对此我深有体会。
11:12
I was a Montessori蒙特梭利 kid孩子 for the first few少数 years年份 of my education教育,
245
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我在蒙特梭利接受了几年的低龄教育,
11:16
and what that education教育 taught me
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1529
这种教育让我认为
11:18
is that the world世界 is an interesting有趣 place地点
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2091
这个世界非常有趣
11:20
and my job工作 is to go explore探索 it.
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而我的工作就是要去探索它。
11:22
The school学校 stopped停止 in third第三 grade年级,
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1701
学校在三年级时,就停办了,
11:24
so then I entered进入 the public上市 school学校 system系统,
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2068
然后我进入公立学校系统,
11:26
and it felt like I had been sent发送 to the Gulag古拉格.
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我感觉就像被派到劳改营。
11:30
With the benefit效益 of hindsight事后, I now know the job工作
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事后看来,现在我知道这种教育
11:33
was to prepare准备 me for life as a clerk书记 or a laborer劳动者,
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2514
是让我成为一个职员或技工作准备,
11:36
but at the time it felt like the job工作 was to kind of
254
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但与此同时我也觉得这种教育
11:38
bore me into some submission服从 with what was going on around me.
255
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3824
让我卷入到了无尽的厌烦之中。
11:42
We have to do better than this.
256
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1348
我们必须做得比这更好。
11:43
We cannot不能 keep turning车削 out Bills票据.
257
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我们不能把下一代继续变成Bill。
11:47
So we see some green绿色 shoots that things are getting得到 better.
258
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2344
我们已经看到有些好转的苗头。
11:49
We see technology技术 deeply impacting影响 education教育
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我们看到技术已经深深地影响了教育
11:52
and engaging people, from our youngest最年轻的 learners学习者
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吸引各个层次的求知者,从新生一代
11:55
up to our oldest最老的 ones那些.
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到我们这些老骨头。
11:57
We see very prominent突出 business商业 voices声音 telling告诉 us
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我们听到非常显著的来自商界的声音
11:59
we need to rethink反思 some of the things that we've我们已经 been holding保持 dear for a while.
263
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告诉我们要反思那些我们一度坚持的事物。
12:02
And we see very serious严重 and sustained持续
264
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我们看到非常严肃和持久的
12:05
and data-driven数据驱动 efforts努力 to understand理解
265
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数据驱动的努力
12:07
how to intervene干预 in some of the most troubled苦恼 communities社区 that we have.
266
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以了解如何去干预我们那些最不安的群体。
12:11
So the green绿色 shoots are out there.
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所以希望就在那里。
12:13
I don't want to pretend假装 for a minute分钟
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我连一分钟的假装都做不到
12:15
that what we have is going to be enough足够.
269
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1942
我们现在所拥有的真的是不够。
12:17
We're facing面对 very tough强硬 challenges挑战.
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我们现在面临着非常严峻的挑战。
12:19
To give just one example, there are about five million百万 Americans美国人
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3106
仅举一个例子,有大约 500 万美国人
12:22
who have been unemployed失业的 for at least最小 six months个月.
272
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已经失业至少六个月了。
12:25
We're not going to fix固定 things for them
273
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1342
我们没法通过将他们送回
12:26
by sending发出 them back to Montessori蒙特梭利.
274
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2443
蒙特梭利的幼儿园来解决它
12:28
And my biggest最大 worry担心 is that we're creating创建 a world世界
275
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2355
我最担心的,是我们要创建的世界
12:31
where we're going to have glittering金光闪闪 technologies技术
276
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2549
虽有闪闪发光的技术
12:33
embedded嵌入式 in kind of a shabby破旧 society社会
277
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2305
却还是一套破旧的社会体制
12:36
and supported支持的 by an economy经济 that generates生成 inequality不等式
278
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2967
由不公而非机会
12:39
instead代替 of opportunity机会.
279
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1481
所维持的经济
12:40
But I actually其实 don't think that's what we're going to do.
280
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2752
但我并不认为我们会维持现在的所作所为。
12:43
I think we're going to do something a lot better
281
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1629
我认为我们会做得更好
12:44
for one very straightforward直截了当 reason原因:
282
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2110
一个非常简单的原因:
12:47
The facts事实 are getting得到 out there.
283
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1968
事实已经呈现在眼前。
12:49
The realities现实 of this new machine age年龄
284
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2042
新机器时代已经到来
12:51
and the change更改 in the economy经济 are becoming变得 more widely广泛 known已知.
285
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3315
经济的变革也更加广为人知。
12:54
If we wanted to accelerate加速 that process处理, we could do things
286
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2851
如果我们想要加快这一进程,我们可以做的事情
12:57
like have our best最好 economists经济学家 and policymakers政策制定者
287
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2766
比如让我们最好的经济学家和政策制定者
13:00
play "Jeopardy危险!" against反对 Watson沃森.
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对人工智能程序发出"危险!"警告。
13:02
We could send发送 Congress国会 on an autonomous自主性 car汽车 road trip.
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我们可以通过自发的公路游行向国会传达。
13:05
And if we do enough足够 of these kinds of things,
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如果我们做足够多的这类事情,
13:07
the awareness意识 is going to sink水槽 in that things are going to be different不同.
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这种意识就会渗入社会,情况就会发生变化。
13:11
And then we're off to the races比赛,
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然后我们就出发去行动,
13:12
because I don't believe for a second第二
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哪怕只有一秒,我也不会相信
13:15
that we have forgotten忘记了 how to solve解决 tough强硬 challenges挑战
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我们会忘记如何解决严峻的挑战
13:18
or that we have become成为 too apathetic麻木不仁 or hard-hearted心硬 to even try.
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或者我们已经变得太冷漠、麻木甚至不敢尝试。
13:22
I started开始 my talk with quotes报价 from wordsmiths文字匠
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我通过引用文豪的名言开始我的演讲
13:24
who were separated分离 by an ocean海洋 and a century世纪.
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他们来自一个世纪前海洋的另一端。
13:27
Let me end结束 it with words from politicians政治家
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现在让我用政治家的言论来结束演讲
13:29
who were similarly同样 distant遥远.
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他们同样地遥远。
13:31
Winston温斯顿 Churchill丘吉尔 came来了 to my home of MITMIT in 1949,
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温斯顿 · 丘吉尔在1949年来到麻省理工学院
13:34
and he said, "If we are to bring带来 the broad广阔 masses群众
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他说,“如果我们要带领广大人民群众
13:37
of the people in every一切 land土地 to the table of abundance丰富,
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走向繁荣富裕,
13:40
it can only be by the tireless不知疲倦的 improvement起色
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只能通过不懈的改进
13:43
of all of our means手段 of technical技术 production生产."
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改进一切技术生产手段。”
13:46
Abraham亚伯拉罕 Lincoln林肯 realized实现 there was one other ingredient成分.
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亚伯拉罕 · 林肯认识到另一个方面。
13:49
He said, "I am a firm公司 believer信徒 in the people.
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他说,"我是一位对人民有坚定信心的人。
13:52
If given特定 the truth真相, they can be depended依赖 upon
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如果给他们真相,
13:54
to meet遇到 any national国民 crisis危机.
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他们可以面对任何国家的危机。
13:57
The great point is to give them the plain facts事实."
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最重要的是,给他们真正的事实。”
13:59
So the optimistic乐观 note注意, great point that I want to leave离开 you with
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所以乐观的说,我想要留给你们的是
14:02
is that the plain facts事实 of the machine age年龄 are becoming变得 clear明确,
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新机器时代的到来已经是显而易见的事实,
14:06
and I have every一切 confidence置信度 that we're going to use them
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我有十足的信心,我们可以驾驭机器
14:08
to chart图表 a good course课程 into the challenging具有挑战性的,
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来通过充满挑战的社会课程,
14:11
abundant丰富 economy经济 that we're creating创建.
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迎接我们正在创造的经济繁荣。
14:14
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢。
14:15
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
Translated by Zheqing Fang
Reviewed by stas zhu

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Andrew McAfee - Management theorist
Andrew McAfee studies how information technology affects businesses and society.

Why you should listen

Andrew McAfee studies the ways that information technology (IT) affects businesses, business as a whole, and the larger society. His research investigates how IT changes the way companies perform, organize themselves and compete. At a higher level, his work also investigates how computerization affects competition, society, the economy and the workforce.

He's a principal research scientist at the Center for Digital Business at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His books include Enterprise 2.0 and Race Against the Machine (with Erik Brynjolfsson). Read more on his blog.

 

More profile about the speaker
Andrew McAfee | Speaker | TED.com