TED2013
Andrew McAfee: What will future jobs look like?
Andrew McAfee: Kako će izgledati poslovi budućnosti?
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Ekonomist Andrew McAfee konstatira da će nam androidi vjerojatno oduzeti poslove, barem one poslove kakve danas poznajemo. U ovom vizionarskom govoru, on razmišlja o tome kako bi poslovi budućnosti mogli izgledati, i o tome kako za njih obrazovati buduće naraštaje.
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Andrew McAfee - Management theorist
Andrew McAfee studies how information technology affects businesses and society. Full bio
Andrew McAfee studies how information technology affects businesses and society. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
The writer George Eliot cautioned us that,
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Spisateljica George Eliot upozorila nas je
00:15
among all forms of mistake,
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da je među svim pogreškama
00:17
prophesy is the most gratuitous.
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najnepotrebnija: predviđanje.
00:19
The person that we would all acknowledge
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Osoba koju bismo svi prepoznali
00:21
as her 20th-century counterpart, Yogi Berra, agreed.
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kao njenog istomišljenika u 20. stoljeću,
Yogi Berra, složio se.
Yogi Berra, složio se.
00:25
He said, "It's tough to make predictions,
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Rekao je: "Teško je predviđati,
00:27
especially about the future."
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pogotovo budućnost."
00:30
I'm going to ignore their cautions
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Ignorirat ću njihova upozorenja
00:32
and make one very specific forecast.
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i iznijet ću jednu vrlo konkretnu prognozu:
00:34
In the world that we are creating very quickly,
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U svijetu kojeg vrlo ubrzano stvaramo
00:36
we're going to see more and more things
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vidjet ćemo sve više stvari
00:38
that look like science fiction,
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nalik znanstvenoj fantastici,
00:40
and fewer and fewer things that look like jobs.
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a sve manje nalik klasičnim poslovima.
00:43
Our cars are very quickly going to start driving themselves,
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Naši će se automobili
vrlo uskoro početi sami voziti,
vrlo uskoro početi sami voziti,
00:46
which means we're going to need fewer truck drivers.
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što znači da će nam trebati
manje vozača kamiona.
manje vozača kamiona.
00:48
We're going to hook Siri up to Watson
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Priključit ćemo Siri za Watsona
00:51
and use that to automate a lot of the work
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i upotrijebiti ih za automatiziranje
mnogih poslova
mnogih poslova
00:53
that's currently done by customer service reps
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koje danas obavljaju službe za korisnike,
00:55
and troubleshooters and diagnosers,
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stručnjaci za uklanjanje kvarova
i oni za prepoznavanje problema.
i oni za prepoznavanje problema.
00:58
and we're already taking R2D2,
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Već koristimo i R2D2
01:00
painting him orange, and putting him to work
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bojimo ga u narančasto i upošljavamo
01:04
carrying shelves around warehouses,
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kao prenositelja polica po skladištima,
01:06
which means we need a lot fewer people
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što znači da nam treba
puno manje ljudi
puno manje ljudi
01:08
to be walking up and down those aisles.
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koji će prolaziti tim prolazima.
01:10
Now, for about 200 years,
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Već 200-tinjak godina,
01:14
people have been saying exactly what I'm telling you --
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ljudi govore točno ovo o čemu vam govorim:
01:16
the age of technological unemployment is at hand —
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Približava se doba
tehnološke nezaposlenosti...
tehnološke nezaposlenosti...
01:19
starting with the Luddites smashing looms in Britain
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Započinje s ludistima i njihovim razbijanjem
tkalačkih stanova u Velikoj Britaniji
tkalačkih stanova u Velikoj Britaniji
01:22
just about two centuries ago,
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prije samo dva stoljeća.
01:23
and they have been wrong.
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A oni su bili u krivu.
01:25
Our economies in the developed world have coasted along
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Naša gospodarstva u razvijenom svijetu
dugo se već kreću
dugo se već kreću
01:28
on something pretty close to full employment.
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u zoni vrlo bliskoj punoj zaposlenosti.
01:30
Which brings up a critical question:
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Što nameće ključno pitanje:
01:32
Why is this time different, if it really is?
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"Zašto je ovog puta drugačije,
ako uopće jest?"
ako uopće jest?"
01:35
The reason it's different is that, just in the past few years,
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Drugačije je zato što su,
u proteklih samo nekoliko godina,
u proteklih samo nekoliko godina,
01:38
our machines have started demonstrating skills
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naši strojevi započeli
demonstrirati vještine
demonstrirati vještine
01:40
they have never, ever had before:
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koje nikada prije nisu:
01:43
understanding, speaking, hearing, seeing,
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razumijevanje, govorenje, slušanje, viđenje,
01:46
answering, writing, and they're still acquiring new skills.
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odgovaranje, pisanje...
i još uvijek usvajaju nove vještine.
i još uvijek usvajaju nove vještine.
01:50
For example, mobile humanoid robots
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Na primjer, humanoidni mobilni roboti
01:53
are still incredibly primitive,
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još su uvijek nevjerojatno priprosti,
01:55
but the research arm of the Defense Department
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ali istraživački odjel Ministarstva obrane
01:57
just launched a competition
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upravo je pokrenuo natjecanje
01:58
to have them do things like this,
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kako bi potaknuli ljude
da rade na takvim stvarima.
da rade na takvim stvarima.
02:00
and if the track record is any guide,
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I ako su nam dosadašnja iskustva
ikakva vodilja,
ikakva vodilja,
02:02
this competition is going to be successful.
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ovo će natjecanje biti uspješno.
02:05
So when I look around, I think the day is not too far off at all
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Kad pogledam uokolo,
pomislim kako uopće nije daleko dan
pomislim kako uopće nije daleko dan
02:08
when we're going to have androids
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kad će androidi
02:10
doing a lot of the work that we are doing right now.
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obavljati mnoge naše današnje poslove.
02:13
And we're creating a world where there is going to be
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Stvaramo svijet u kojemu će biti
02:17
more and more technology and fewer and fewer jobs.
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sve više tehnologije,
a sve manje klasičnih poslova.
a sve manje klasičnih poslova.
02:21
It's a world that Erik Brynjolfsson and I are calling
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To je svijet koji
Erik Brynjolfsson i ja nazivamo
Erik Brynjolfsson i ja nazivamo
02:23
"the new machine age."
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"Novo doba strojeva."
02:24
The thing to keep in mind is that
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Treba imati na umu da
02:27
this is absolutely great news.
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su to neosporno sjajne vijesti.
02:29
This is the best economic news on the planet these days.
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To su najbolje gospodarske vijesti
na planetu ovih dana.
na planetu ovih dana.
02:32
Not that there's a lot of competition, right?
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Konkurencija i nije velika, zar ne?!
02:36
This is the best economic news we have these days
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To su najbolje gospodarske vijesti ovih dana
02:38
for two main reasons.
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iz dva glavna razloga...
02:39
The first is, technological progress is what allows us
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Prvi, tehnološki je napredak taj
koji nam omogućava
koji nam omogućava
02:42
to continue this amazing recent run that we're on
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nastaviti ova nevjerojatna
suvremena kretanja,
suvremena kretanja,
02:46
where output goes up over time,
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pri čemu s vremenom proizvodnja raste,
02:49
while at the same time, prices go down,
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dok istovremeno cijene padaju,
02:52
and volume and quality just continue to explode.
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a volumen i kvaliteta
i nadalje skokovito rastu.
i nadalje skokovito rastu.
02:56
Now, some people look at this and talk about
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Neki ljudi ovo smatraju
02:58
shallow materialism,
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plitkim materijalizmom,
03:00
but that's absolutely the wrong way to look at it.
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no to je posve pogrešno gledište.
03:02
This is abundance, which is exactly
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To je obilje, upravo ono što
03:05
what we want our economic system to provide.
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želimo da nam naš
gospodarski sustav pruži.
gospodarski sustav pruži.
03:08
The second reason that the new machine age
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Drugi razlog zašto je "Novo doba strojeva"
03:11
is such great news is that, once the androids
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tako sjajna vijest je taj što, pošto androidi
03:14
start doing jobs, we don't have to do them anymore,
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preuzmu poslove,
mi ih više nećemo morati obavljati,
mi ih više nećemo morati obavljati,
03:17
and we get freed up from drudgery and toil.
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i tako ćemo se osloboditi
mučnog i iscrpljujućeg rada.
mučnog i iscrpljujućeg rada.
03:21
Now, when I talk about this with my friends
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Kad razgovaram o tome s prijateljima
03:23
in Cambridge and Silicon Valley, they say,
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u Cambridgeu i u Silicijskoj dolini, kažu:
03:25
"Fantastic. No more drudgery, no more toil.
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"Fantastično. Nema više robovanja,
nema više iscrpljivanja.
nema više iscrpljivanja.
03:27
This gives us the chance to imagine
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To nam daje priliku da zamislimo
03:29
an entirely different kind of society,
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posve drugačije društvo,
03:32
a society where the creators and the discoverers
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društvo u kojemu stvaraoci i pronalazači,
03:35
and the performers and the innovators
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izvođači i inovatori,
03:36
come together with their patrons and their financiers
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sa svojim pokroviteljima i financijerima,
03:40
to talk about issues, entertain, enlighten,
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raspravljaju, zabavljaju se, nadahnjuju,
03:43
provoke each other."
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provociraju jedni druge."
03:45
It's a society really, that looks a lot like the TED Conference.
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To je društvo, doista,
veoma nalik TED konferenciji.
veoma nalik TED konferenciji.
03:49
And there's actually a huge amount of truth here.
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To je, zapravo, poprilična istina.
03:52
We are seeing an amazing flourishing taking place.
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Svjedoci smo nevjerojatnog procvata.
03:55
In a world where it is just about as easy
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U svijetu u kojem je gotovo jednako lako
03:57
to generate an object as it is to print a document,
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stvoriti objekt kao i tiskati dokument,
04:00
we have amazing new possibilities.
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nevjerojatne nove mogućnosti nam se pružaju.
04:02
The people who used to be craftsmen and hobbyists
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Ljudi koji su nekad bili obrtnici i hobisti
04:06
are now makers, and they're responsible
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sad su stvaraoci, odgovorni
04:08
for massive amounts of innovation.
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za brojne inovacije.
04:10
And artists who were formerly constrained
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I umjetnici, koji su ranije bili ograničavani,
04:13
can now do things that were never, ever possible
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sad mogu raditi stvari koje nikad prije
04:16
for them before.
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nisu mogli raditi.
04:18
So this is a time of great flourishing,
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Dakle, ovo je doba velikog procvata,
04:20
and the more I look around, the more convinced I become
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i što više promatram oko sebe,
uvjereniji sam
uvjereniji sam
04:23
that this quote, from the physicist Freeman Dyson,
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kako ovaj citat, fizičara Freemana Dysona,
04:26
is not hyperbole at all.
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nije nikakvo pretjerivanje.
04:28
This is just a plain statement of the facts.
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On jednostavno potvrđuje činjenice.
04:31
We are in the middle of an astonishing period.
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Usred smo zadivljujućeg razdoblja.
04:32
["Technology is a gift of God. After the gift of life it is perhaps the greatest of God's gifts. It is the mother of civilizations, of arts and of sciences." — Freeman Dyson]
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["Tehnologija je dar od Boga. Nakon dara života, ona je možda i najveći od Božjih darova. Ona je majka civilizacija, umjetnosti i znanosti." - Freeman Dyson]
04:33
Which brings up another great question:
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Što nameće sljedeće sjajno pitanje:
04:36
What could possibly go wrong in this new machine age?
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"Što bi možda moglo poći po zlu
u ovom novom dobu strojeva?"
u ovom novom dobu strojeva?"
04:39
Right? Great, hang up, flourish, go home.
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Zar ne?
Sjajno... Stani, procvjetaj, idi doma!
Sjajno... Stani, procvjetaj, idi doma!
04:42
We're going to face two really thorny sets of challenges
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Suočit ćemo se s dva trnovita skupa izazova
04:45
as we head deeper into the future that we're creating.
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dok stremimo sve dublje u budućnost
koju sami stvaramo.
koju sami stvaramo.
04:48
The first are economic, and they're really nicely summarized
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Prvi su ekonomski, i uistinu su lijepo sažeti
04:51
in an apocryphal story about a back-and-forth
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u apokrifnoj priči o "povuci-potegni"
04:54
between Henry Ford II and Walter Reuther,
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između Henryja Forda II i Waltera Reuthera,
04:57
who was the head of the auto workers union.
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čelnika radničkog sindikata
u automobilskoj industriji.
u automobilskoj industriji.
05:00
They were touring one of the new modern factories,
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Tijekom obilaska jedne od novih,
modernih tvornica,
modernih tvornica,
05:02
and Ford playfully turns to Reuther and says,
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Ford se nestašno obratio Reutheru:
05:05
"Hey Walter, how are you going to get these robots
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"Walter, kako ćete ovim robotima
05:07
to pay union dues?"
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naplaćivati sindikalnu članarinu?"
05:09
And Reuther shoots back, "Hey Henry,
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A Reuther mu uzvrati:
05:11
how are you going to get them to buy cars?"
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"Henry, a kako ćete ih vi nagovoriti
da kupuju automobile?"
da kupuju automobile?"
05:15
Reuther's problem in that anecdote
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Reutherov problem u toj anegdoti
05:18
is that it is tough to offer your labor to an economy
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taj je što je teško ponuditi
vlastiti rad u gospodarstvu
vlastiti rad u gospodarstvu
05:22
that's full of machines,
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prepunom strojeva,
05:24
and we see this very clearly in the statistics.
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i na to nam vrlo jasno ukazuje statistika.
05:26
If you look over the past couple decades
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Osvrnemo li se na povrate na kapital
05:29
at the returns to capital -- in other words, corporate profits --
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u posljednjih par desetljeća -
drugim riječima, na korporativne profite -
drugim riječima, na korporativne profite -
05:32
we see them going up,
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vidimo kako su rasli,
05:34
and we see that they're now at an all-time high.
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i kako su sad na svojim najvišim razinama.
05:36
If we look at the returns to labor, in other words
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Ako pogledamo zarade zaposlenih -
drugim riječima,
drugim riječima,
05:39
total wages paid out in the economy,
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ukupno isplaćene plaće u gospodarstvu -
05:41
we see them at an all-time low
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vidjet ćemo ih na najnižim razinama
05:43
and heading very quickly in the opposite direction.
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s vrlo brzim kretanjem
u suprotnom smjeru.
u suprotnom smjeru.
05:46
So this is clearly bad news for Reuther.
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To je nedvojbeno
loša vijest za Reuthera;
loša vijest za Reuthera;
05:48
It looks like it might be great news for Ford,
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čini se da bi to mogla biti
sjajna vijest za Forda...
sjajna vijest za Forda...
05:52
but it's actually not. If you want to sell
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Ali, zapravo nije.
Želite li ljudima prodati
Želite li ljudima prodati
05:54
huge volumes of somewhat expensive goods to people,
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goleme količine ponešto skupih dobara,
05:57
you really want a large, stable, prosperous middle class.
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tada doista želite brojnu, stabilnu,
prosperitetnu srednju klasu.
prosperitetnu srednju klasu.
06:01
We have had one of those in America
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Jednu takvu imali smo u Americi
06:03
for just about the entire postwar period.
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u čitavom poslijeratnom razdoblju.
06:06
But the middle class is clearly under huge threat right now.
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No, srednji sloj je sad očito ugrožen.
06:10
We all know a lot of the statistics,
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Svima su nam poznati mnogi statistički podaci,
06:12
but just to repeat one of them,
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ali ponovimo samo jedan od njih:
06:14
median income in America has actually gone down
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Prosječna plaća u Americi zapravo je pala
06:17
over the past 15 years,
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tijekom proteklih 15 godina,
06:18
and we're in danger of getting trapped
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i u opasnosti smo da ostanemo zarobljeni
06:20
in some vicious cycle where inequality and polarization
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u začaranom krugu
u kojemu nejednakosti i polarizacije
u kojemu nejednakosti i polarizacije
06:24
continue to go up over time.
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s vremenom sve više rastu.
06:27
The societal challenges that come along
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Društveni izazovi koji dolaze
06:30
with that kind of inequality deserve some attention.
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s tom vrstom nejednakosti zaslužuju pažnju.
06:32
There are a set of societal challenges
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Postoji niz društvenih izazova
06:34
that I'm actually not that worried about,
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zbog kojih i nisam tako zabrinut,
06:36
and they're captured by images like this.
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i oni su prikazani slikama poput ovih:
06:38
This is not the kind of societal problem
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Ovo nije vrsta društvenog problema
06:40
that I am concerned about.
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koja me brine.
06:42
There is no shortage of dystopian visions
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Postoji mnoštvo utopijskih vizija
06:45
about what happens when our machines become self-aware,
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o tome što se događa
kad naši strojevi postanu samosvjesni,
kad naši strojevi postanu samosvjesni,
06:48
and they decide to rise up and coordinate attacks against us.
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i odluče se podići i usmjeriti
napade protiv nas.
napade protiv nas.
06:51
I'm going to start worrying about those
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O tome ću početi brinuti
06:53
the day my computer becomes aware of my printer.
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onoga dana kad moje računalo
postane svjesno mog pisača...
postane svjesno mog pisača...
06:56
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(Smijeh)
(Pljesak)
(Pljesak)
07:00
So this is not the set of challenges we really need to worry about.
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Dakle, taj skup izazova
nas doista ne treba brinuti.
nas doista ne treba brinuti.
07:03
To tell you the kinds of societal challenges
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Kako biste razumjeli
kakvi će se društveni izazovi
kakvi će se društveni izazovi
07:06
that are going to come up in the new machine age,
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pojaviti u tom novom dobu strojeva,
07:08
I want to tell a story about two stereotypical American workers.
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ispričat ću vam priču
o dva stereotipna američka radnika...
o dva stereotipna američka radnika...
07:12
And to make them really stereotypical,
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A da bi oni stvarno bili stereotipni,
07:13
let's make them both white guys.
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neka oboje budu bijelci. Muškarci.
07:15
And the first one is a college-educated
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Prvi je visokoobrazovan,
07:19
professional, creative type, manager,
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stručnjak, kreativan tip, menadžer,
07:22
engineer, doctor, lawyer, that kind of worker.
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inženjer, liječnik, odvjetnik...
ta vrsta radnika.
ta vrsta radnika.
07:25
We're going to call him "Ted."
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Zvat ćemo ga "Ted".
07:28
He's at the top of the American middle class.
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On je na vrhu američke srednje klase.
07:30
His counterpart is not college-educated
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S druge strane,
drugi nije visokoobrazovan,
drugi nije visokoobrazovan,
07:33
and works as a laborer, works as a clerk,
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on radi kao fizički radnik,
radi kao službenik,
radi kao službenik,
07:36
does low-level white collar or blue collar work in the economy.
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obavlja poslove
nižeg statusa u gospodarstvu.
nižeg statusa u gospodarstvu.
07:39
We're going to call that guy "Bill."
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Njega ćemo zvati "Bill".
07:41
And if you go back about 50 years,
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I vratite li se 50-ak godina,
07:44
Bill and Ted were leading remarkably similar lives.
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Bill i Ted su živjeli prilično slično.
07:47
For example, in 1960 they were both very likely
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Primjerice, 1960. obojica su vrlo vjerojatno
07:50
to have full-time jobs, working at least 40 hours a week.
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radili u punom radnom vremenu,
radeći najmanje 40 sati tjedno.
radeći najmanje 40 sati tjedno.
07:53
But as the social researcher Charles Murray has documented,
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Ali, kao što je sociolog Charles Murray zabilježio,
07:57
as we started to automate the economy,
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kako smo započeli
automatizirati gospodarstvo,
automatizirati gospodarstvo,
07:59
and 1960 is just about when computers started to be used by businesses,
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a upravo 1960. su se računala
počela koristiti u tvrtkama,
počela koristiti u tvrtkama,
08:04
as we started to progressively inject technology
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što smo započeli
više i brže uvoditi tehnologiju,
više i brže uvoditi tehnologiju,
08:07
and automation and digital stuff into the economy,
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automatizaciju i digitalne stvari
u naše gospodarstvo,
u naše gospodarstvo,
08:09
the fortunes of Bill and Ted diverged a lot.
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sudbine Billa i Teda
sve su se više razilazile.
sve su se više razilazile.
08:12
Over this time frame, Ted has continued
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Tijekom tog razdoblja,
Ted je i dalje
Ted je i dalje
08:14
to hold a full-time job. Bill hasn't.
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zadržao stalan posao.
Bill nije.
Bill nije.
08:17
In many cases, Bill has left the economy entirely,
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U mnogim je slučajevima
Bill potpuno napuštao svijet rada,
Bill potpuno napuštao svijet rada,
08:21
and Ted very rarely has.
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dok je Ted to vrlo rijetko činio.
08:24
Over time, Ted's marriage has stayed quite happy.
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Tijekom vremena, Tedov je brak
ostao prilično sretan.
ostao prilično sretan.
08:27
Bill's hasn't.
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Billov nije.
08:29
And Ted's kids have grown up in a two-parent home,
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Tedova djeca odrasla su
u domu s oba roditelja,
u domu s oba roditelja,
08:32
while Bill's absolutely have not over time.
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dok Billova nisu bezuvjetno.
08:35
Other ways that Bill is dropping out of society?
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Ukazuje li još nešto na
Billovo društveno otpadništvo?
Billovo društveno otpadništvo?
08:38
He's decreased his voting in presidential elections,
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Rjeđe glasuje na predsjedničkim izborima,
08:41
and he's started to go to prison a lot more often.
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i češće završava u zatvoru.
08:45
So I cannot tell a happy story about these social trends,
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Dakle, ne mogu ispričati priču sa sretnim završetkom
o ovim društvenim trendovima,
o ovim društvenim trendovima,
08:49
and they don't show any signs of reversing themselves.
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i oni ne daju nikakve znake promjene smjera.
08:52
They're also true no matter which ethnic group
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Također, istiniti su za sve promatrane
08:55
or demographic group we look at,
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etničke ili demografske skupine,
08:57
and they're actually getting so severe
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i zapravo se toliko zaoštravaju
08:59
that they're in danger of overwhelming
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da su u opasnosti da toliko nadvladaju
09:00
even the amazing progress we made with the Civil Rights Movement.
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i zadivljujući napredak koji smo postigli
s Pokretom za građanska prava.
s Pokretom za građanska prava.
09:04
And what my friends in Silicon Valley
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Ono što moji prijatelji u Silicijskoj dolini
09:07
and Cambridge are overlooking is that they're Ted.
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i Cambridgeu ne vide jest da su oni "Ted".
09:12
They're living these amazingly busy, productive lives,
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Oni žive tim silno zaposlenim,
produktivnim životima,
produktivnim životima,
09:15
and they've got all the benefits to show from that,
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i imaju sve prednosti koje s tim idu,
09:18
while Bill is leading a very different life.
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dok Bill živi posve drugačijim životom.
09:20
They're actually both proof of how right Voltaire was
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Obojica su dokaz koliko je Voltaire bio u pravu
09:22
when he talked about the benefits of work,
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kad je govorio o prednostima rada,
09:25
and the fact that it saves us from not one but three great evils.
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i o činjenici da nas rad spašava
ne jednog, nego triju velikih zala.
ne jednog, nego triju velikih zala.
09:28
["Work saves a man from three great evils: boredom, vice and need." — Voltaire]
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["Rad spašava čovjeka od triju velikih zala:
dosade, poroka i oskudice." - Voltaire]
dosade, poroka i oskudice." - Voltaire]
09:29
So with these challenges, what do we do about them?
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Dakle, što ćemo učiniti glede ovih izazova?
09:32
The economic playbook is surprisingly clear,
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Ekonomska taktika je iznenađujuće jasna,
09:35
surprisingly straightforward, in the short term especially.
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iznenađujuće izravna.
Osobito u kratkom roku.
Osobito u kratkom roku.
09:38
The robots are not going to take all of our jobs in the next year or two,
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Roboti neće preuzeti sve naše poslove
u narednih godinu ili dvije,
u narednih godinu ili dvije,
09:41
so the classic Econ 101 playbook is going to work just fine:
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pa će klasične ekonomske lekcije
posve dobro djelovati:
posve dobro djelovati:
09:46
Encourage entrepreneurship,
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Potičite poduzetništvo,
09:48
double down on infrastructure,
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prepolovite infrastrukturu,
09:50
and make sure we're turning out people
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i pobrinite se da iz našeg obrazovnog sustava
09:52
from our educational system with the appropriate skills.
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izlaze ljudi s odgovarajućim vještinama.
09:55
But over the longer term, if we are moving into an economy
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Ali dugoročno,
ako se krećemo ka gospodarstvu
ako se krećemo ka gospodarstvu
09:58
that's heavy on technology and light on labor,
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snažno oslonjenom na tehnologiju,
a slabo na radnu snagu -
a slabo na radnu snagu -
10:01
and we are, then we have to consider
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a upravo je tako -
tad moramo razmotriti
tad moramo razmotriti
10:04
some more radical interventions,
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neke radikalnije zahvate,
10:05
for example, something like a guaranteed minimum income.
222
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3199
poput, primjerice,
zajamčenog minimalnog dohotka.
zajamčenog minimalnog dohotka.
10:09
Now, that's probably making some folk in this room uncomfortable,
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To vjerojatno nekima ovdje
izaziva nelagodu,
izaziva nelagodu,
10:12
because that idea is associated with the extreme left wing
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jer ta je ideja povezana
s krajnjom političkom ljevicom
s krajnjom političkom ljevicom
10:16
and with fairly radical schemes for redistributing wealth.
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i s prilično radikalnim planovima
preraspodjele bogatstva.
preraspodjele bogatstva.
10:19
I did a little bit of research on this notion,
226
607818
1953
Malo sam istraživao tu tezu,
10:21
and it might calm some folk down to know that
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i nekoga bi moglo
umiriti saznanje da su
umiriti saznanje da su
10:24
the idea of a net guaranteed minimum income
228
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zamisao o zajamčenom
minimalnom neto-dohotku,
minimalnom neto-dohotku,
10:26
has been championed by those frothing-at-the-mouth socialists
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s pjenom-na-ustima,
zagovarali socijalisti
zagovarali socijalisti
10:30
Friedrich Hayek, Richard Nixon and Milton Friedman.
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5473
Friedrich Hayek, Richard Nixon
i Milton Friedman.
i Milton Friedman.
10:35
And if you find yourself worried
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A ako vas ipak brine
10:37
that something like a guaranteed income
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da će nešto poput
zajamčenog dohotka
zajamčenog dohotka
10:40
is going to stifle our drive to succeed
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ugušiti našu žeđ za uspjehom
10:42
and make us kind of complacent,
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i učiniti nas neambicioznima,
10:44
you might be interested to know that social mobility,
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moglo bi vas zanimati
da je socijalna mobilnost -
da je socijalna mobilnost -
10:47
one of the things we really pride ourselves on in the United States,
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jedna od stvari
kojima se u SAD-u uistinu ponosimo -
kojima se u SAD-u uistinu ponosimo -
10:50
is now lower than it is in the northern European countries
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sad niža no u sjevernoeuropskim zemljama
10:53
that have these very generous social safety nets.
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koje imaju izdašne
društvene sigurnosne mreže.
društvene sigurnosne mreže.
10:56
So the economic playbook is actually pretty straightforward.
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2792
Dakle, ekonomska taktika je,
zapravo, prilično jednostavna.
zapravo, prilično jednostavna.
10:59
The societal one is a lot more challenging.
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Socijalna je daleko izazovnija!
11:02
I don't know what the playbook is
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Ne znam kako potaknuti
11:04
for getting Bill to engage and stay engaged throughout life.
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Billa da se angažira i ostane angažiran
u svim aspektima života.
u svim aspektima života.
11:08
I do know that education is a huge part of it.
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Ali, znam da je obrazovanje važan dio taktike.
11:11
I witnessed this firsthand.
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Svjedok sam toga iz prve ruke.
11:12
I was a Montessori kid for the first few years of my education,
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Prvih nekoliko godina obrazovao sam se
po programu Montessori.
po programu Montessori.
11:16
and what that education taught me
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1529
Ondje sam naučio
11:18
is that the world is an interesting place
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da je svijet zanimljivo mjesto,
11:20
and my job is to go explore it.
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i da je na meni da ga istražujem.
11:22
The school stopped in third grade,
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U trećem sam razredu
11:24
so then I entered the public school system,
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prešao u javni školski sustav,
11:26
and it felt like I had been sent to the Gulag.
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i osjećao sam se
kao da sam bio poslan u gulag.
kao da sam bio poslan u gulag.
11:30
With the benefit of hindsight, I now know the job
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S naknadnom pameću, sad mi je jasno
11:33
was to prepare me for life as a clerk or a laborer,
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2514
da su me pripremali za život
službenika ili radnika,
službenika ili radnika,
11:36
but at the time it felt like the job was to kind of
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ali tad mi se činilo
kao da je cilj bio da me
kao da je cilj bio da me
11:38
bore me into some submission with what was going on around me.
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uljuljkaju za mirenje s
onime što se događa oko mene.
onime što se događa oko mene.
11:42
We have to do better than this.
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Moramo biti bolji od toga!
11:43
We cannot keep turning out Bills.
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Ne možemo i nadalje stvarati "Billove"!
11:47
So we see some green shoots that things are getting better.
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2344
Dakle, vidimo neke nagovještaje
da se stvari mijenjaju na bolje...
da se stvari mijenjaju na bolje...
11:49
We see technology deeply impacting education
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Vidimo da tehnologije
duboko utječu na obrazovni sustav
duboko utječu na obrazovni sustav
11:52
and engaging people, from our youngest learners
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i angažiraju ljude,
od naših najmlađih
od naših najmlađih
11:55
up to our oldest ones.
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1764
sve do najstarijih.
11:57
We see very prominent business voices telling us
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Čujemo kako nam
vrlo ugledni poslovni ljudi govore
vrlo ugledni poslovni ljudi govore
11:59
we need to rethink some of the things that we've been holding dear for a while.
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3216
da trebamo iznova osmisliti sve ono
što smo izvjesno vrijeme visoko cijenili.
što smo izvjesno vrijeme visoko cijenili.
12:02
And we see very serious and sustained
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I vidimo vrlo ozbiljna, trajna,
12:05
and data-driven efforts to understand
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2804
i na podacima utemeljena
nastojanja da razumijemo
nastojanja da razumijemo
12:07
how to intervene in some of the most troubled communities that we have.
266
715952
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što poduzeti u našim
najproblematičnijim zajednicama.
najproblematičnijim zajednicama.
12:11
So the green shoots are out there.
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Znači, nagovještaji postoje...
12:13
I don't want to pretend for a minute
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Ne želim ni nakratko umišljati
12:15
that what we have is going to be enough.
269
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1942
da će nam ovo što imamo biti dovoljno.
12:17
We're facing very tough challenges.
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2142
Suočeni smo s vrlo teškim izazovima.
12:19
To give just one example, there are about five million Americans
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Navest ću samo jedan primjer:
oko pet milijuna Amerikanaca
oko pet milijuna Amerikanaca
12:22
who have been unemployed for at least six months.
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2814
nezaposleno je najmanje šest mjeseci.
12:25
We're not going to fix things for them
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Njima nećemo pomoći
12:26
by sending them back to Montessori.
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2443
pošaljemo li ih natrag u Montessori...
12:28
And my biggest worry is that we're creating a world
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2355
A najviše me brine da stvaramo svijet
12:31
where we're going to have glittering technologies
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2549
u kojemu će blistava tehnologija
12:33
embedded in kind of a shabby society
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2305
biti sastavni dio zapuštenog društva,
12:36
and supported by an economy that generates inequality
278
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2967
podržana od strane gospodarstva
koje generira nejednakost
koje generira nejednakost
12:39
instead of opportunity.
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1481
umjesto da stvara prilike.
12:40
But I actually don't think that's what we're going to do.
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2752
Međutim, ne mislim da ćemo to učiniti!
12:43
I think we're going to do something a lot better
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1629
Mislim da ćemo napraviti nešto puno bolje,
12:44
for one very straightforward reason:
282
752965
2110
iz jednog vrlo jednostavnog razloga:
12:47
The facts are getting out there.
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1968
Činjenice su tu!
12:49
The realities of this new machine age
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2042
Stvarnost ovog novog doba strojeva
12:51
and the change in the economy are becoming more widely known.
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3315
i promjene u gospodarstvu
svima postaju poznate.
svima postaju poznate.
12:54
If we wanted to accelerate that process, we could do things
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2851
Kad bismo željeli ubrzati taj proces,
mogli bismo
mogli bismo
12:57
like have our best economists and policymakers
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2766
dovesti naše najbolje
ekonomiste i političare
ekonomiste i političare
13:00
play "Jeopardy!" against Watson.
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2419
da zaigraju "Izazov!" protiv Watsona.
13:02
We could send Congress on an autonomous car road trip.
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Mogli bismo sve naše kongresnike poslati
na automobilsko putovanje.
na automobilsko putovanje.
13:05
And if we do enough of these kinds of things,
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I učinimo li dovoljno takvih stvari,
13:07
the awareness is going to sink in that things are going to be different.
291
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3404
svijest sviju bit će preplavljena time
da je drugačiji svijet moguć.
da je drugačiji svijet moguć.
13:11
And then we're off to the races,
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1771
I opet smo u utrci...
13:12
because I don't believe for a second
293
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2430
Jer, ne vjerujem, ni sekunde,
13:15
that we have forgotten how to solve tough challenges
294
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2968
da smo zaboravili
rješavati žestoke izazove,
rješavati žestoke izazove,
13:18
or that we have become too apathetic or hard-hearted to even try.
295
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4350
niti da smo postali previše apatični
ili tvrdokorni a da ne bismo barem pokušali.
ili tvrdokorni a da ne bismo barem pokušali.
13:22
I started my talk with quotes from wordsmiths
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Započeo sam svoj govor
mislima nekih pisaca,
mislima nekih pisaca,
13:24
who were separated by an ocean and a century.
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2816
razdvojenih oceanom i stoljećem...
13:27
Let me end it with words from politicians
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2152
Dopustite mi da ga okončam
riječima političara
riječima političara
13:29
who were similarly distant.
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1731
koji su bili podjednako udaljeni.
13:31
Winston Churchill came to my home of MIT in 1949,
300
799655
3333
Winston Churchill došao je
u moj dom - MIT - 1949.,
u moj dom - MIT - 1949.,
13:34
and he said, "If we are to bring the broad masses
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i rekao je:
"Ako želimo dovesti široke mase ljudi,
"Ako želimo dovesti široke mase ljudi,
13:37
of the people in every land to the table of abundance,
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u svakoj zemlji, za stol obilja,
13:40
it can only be by the tireless improvement
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to je moguće samo
neumornim usavršavanjem
neumornim usavršavanjem
13:43
of all of our means of technical production."
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svih naših tehničkih proizvodnih sredstava."
13:46
Abraham Lincoln realized there was one other ingredient.
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Abraham Lincoln shvatio je
da postoji još jedan sastojak...
da postoji još jedan sastojak...
13:49
He said, "I am a firm believer in the people.
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Rekao je: "Čvrsto vjerujem u ljude.
13:52
If given the truth, they can be depended upon
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Kažemo li im istinu, budite sigurni
13:54
to meet any national crisis.
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da će riješiti svaku nacionalnu krizu.
13:57
The great point is to give them the plain facts."
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Ključno je dati im očigledne činjenice."
13:59
So the optimistic note, great point that I want to leave you with
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Dakle, optimistična poruka,
glavna poanta s kojom se želim rastati od vas,
glavna poanta s kojom se želim rastati od vas,
14:02
is that the plain facts of the machine age are becoming clear,
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jest da očigledne činjenice doba strojeva
postaju jasne,
postaju jasne,
14:06
and I have every confidence that we're going to use them
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i potpuno sam uvjeren da ćemo ih koristiti
14:08
to chart a good course into the challenging,
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i zacrtati dobar smjer u izazovno,
14:11
abundant economy that we're creating.
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obilno gospodarstvo kakvo stvaramo.
14:14
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam najljepša.
14:15
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Andrew McAfee - Management theoristAndrew McAfee studies how information technology affects businesses and society.
Why you should listen
Andrew McAfee studies the ways that information technology (IT) affects businesses, business as a whole, and the larger society. His research investigates how IT changes the way companies perform, organize themselves and compete. At a higher level, his work also investigates how computerization affects competition, society, the economy and the workforce.
He's a principal research scientist at the Center for Digital Business at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His books include Enterprise 2.0 and Race Against the Machine (with Erik Brynjolfsson). Read more on his blog.
Andrew McAfee | Speaker | TED.com