TED@State Street Boston
Roger Stein: A bold new way to fund drug research
Rodžer Stajn (Roger Stein): Odvažan novi način finansiranja istraživanja za lekove
Filmed:
Readability: 3.9
952,929 views
Verovali ili ne, u laboratorijama trenutno stoji količina lekova za 20 godina, koji nisu testirani. Zašto? Jer ne mogu da dobiju sredstva za testiranje - finansijski rizik je prevelik. Rodžer Stajn je ekonomista i detaljno razmišlja o smanjenju rizika. On i kolege sa MIT-ja su smislili perspektivan novi finansijski model koji bi mogao stotine lekova da dovede do faze testiranja. (Snimljeno na TED@StateStreet)
Roger Stein - Financial management expert
Roger Stein wants to bring financial engineering to the world of drug funding. Full bio
Roger Stein wants to bring financial engineering to the world of drug funding. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So this is a picture of my dad and me
0
639
3765
Ovo je slika mog tate i mene
00:16
at the beach in Far Rockaway,
1
4404
2590
na plaži u Far Rokaveju,
00:18
or actually Rockaway Park.
2
6994
1670
odnosno u parku Rokavej
00:20
I'm the one with the blond hair.
3
8664
2690
Ja sam ovaj plavokosi.
00:23
My dad's the guy with the cigarette.
4
11354
2108
Moj tata je taj sa cigaretom.
00:25
It was the '60s. A lot of people smoked back then.
5
13462
2367
To su bile šezdesete.
Mnogi su tada pušili.
Mnogi su tada pušili.
00:27
In the summer of 2009,
6
15829
1843
Leta 2009. godine,
00:29
my dad was diagnosed with lung cancer.
7
17672
4496
mom tati je otkriven rak pluća.
00:34
Cancer is one of those things
that actually touches everybody.
that actually touches everybody.
8
22168
3630
Rak je pojava koja svakog dotiče.
00:37
If you're a man in the United States of the America,
9
25798
2504
Ako ste muškarac
u Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama,
u Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama,
00:40
you've got about a one in two chance
10
28302
2078
postoji verovatnoća jedan prema dva
00:42
of being diagnosed with cancer during your lifetime.
11
30380
3153
da obolite od raka za života.
00:45
If you're a woman, you've got
about a one in three chance
about a one in three chance
12
33533
2778
Ako ste žena, postoji verovatnoća
jedan prema tri
jedan prema tri
00:48
of being diagnosed with cancer.
13
36311
1921
da ćete oboleti od raka.
00:50
Everybody knows somebody
14
38232
1499
Svako zna nekoga
00:51
who's been diagnosed with cancer.
15
39731
3403
kome je ustanovljen rak.
00:55
Now, my dad's doing better today,
16
43134
1603
Sada, mom tati je bolje,
00:56
and part of the reason for that is that
17
44737
3312
a delom je to zato što
01:00
he was able to participate in the trial
18
48049
2059
je imao mogućnost
da učestvuje u testiranju
da učestvuje u testiranju
01:02
of an experimental new drug
19
50108
1611
eksperimentalnog novog leka
01:03
that happened to be specially formulated
20
51719
1425
koji je specijalno napravljen
01:05
and very good for his particular kind of cancer.
21
53144
1794
i veoma efikasan za njegov tip raka.
01:06
There are over 200 kinds of cancer.
22
54938
3553
Postoji preko 200 tipova raka.
01:10
And what I want to talk about today is
23
58491
2346
Ja danas želim da pričam o tome
01:12
how we can help more people like my dad,
24
60837
2859
kako možemo da pomognemo
drugim ljudima poput mog oca,
drugim ljudima poput mog oca,
01:15
because we have to change the way
we think about raising money
we think about raising money
25
63696
2861
jer moramo da promenimo
način prikupljanja novca
način prikupljanja novca
01:18
to fund cancer research.
26
66557
2510
za finansiranje istraživanja o raku.
01:21
So a while after my dad was diagnosed,
27
69067
2055
Nakon što je mom tati otkriven rak,
01:23
I was having coffee with my friend Andrew Lo.
28
71122
2908
pio sam kafu s mojim drugom Endruom Loom.
01:26
He's the head of the Laboratory
for Financial Engineering at MIT,
for Financial Engineering at MIT,
29
74030
3426
On je šef Laboratorije
za finansijski inženjering na MIT,
za finansijski inženjering na MIT,
01:29
where I also have a position,
30
77456
2014
gde i ja radim,
01:31
and we were talking about cancer.
31
79470
1507
i razgovarali smo o kanceru.
01:32
And Andrew had been doing
his own bits of research,
his own bits of research,
32
80977
2551
I Endru je sam pomalo istraživao,
01:35
and one of the things that he had been told
33
83528
1889
i nešto što mu je rečeno
01:37
and that he'd learned from studying the literature
34
85417
4608
i što je saznao proučavajući literaturu,
01:42
was that there's actually a big bottleneck.
35
90043
2068
jeste da postoji veliko usko grlo.
01:44
It's very difficult to develop new drugs,
36
92111
2278
Veoma je teško razviti nove lekove,
01:46
and the reason it's difficult to develop new drugs
37
94389
1779
a teško je razviti nove lekove
01:48
is because in the early stages of drug development,
38
96168
2401
jesr su u ranim fazama razvoja leka
ti lekovi su veoma rizični,
01:50
the drugs are very risky,
39
98569
1251
01:51
and they're very expensive.
40
99820
1646
i veoma skupi.
01:53
So Andrew asked me if I'd want to
41
101466
1655
Endru me je pitao da li bih hteo
01:55
maybe work with him a bit,
42
103121
1212
možda da radim s njim,
01:56
work on some of the math and the analytics
43
104333
1634
da poradim na nekim
proračunima i analizama,
proračunima i analizama,
01:57
and see if we could figure out
something we could do.
something we could do.
44
105967
3944
da vidimo možemo li nešto da uradimo.
02:01
Now I'm not a scientist.
45
109911
1698
Ja nisam naučnik.
02:03
You know, I don't know how to build a drug.
46
111609
1898
Ne znam kako da napravim lek.
02:05
And none of my coauthors, Andrew Lo
47
113507
2401
I nijedan od mojih koautora, Endru Lo
02:07
or Jose Maria Fernandez or David Fagnan --
48
115908
2692
ili Hoze Maria Fernandez
ili Dejvid Fegnan -
ili Dejvid Fegnan -
02:10
none of those guys -- are scientists either.
49
118600
2554
niko od njih nije naučnik.
02:13
We don't know the first thing about
how to make a cancer drug.
how to make a cancer drug.
50
121154
3418
Ne znamo ništa o pravljenju
leka protiv raka.
leka protiv raka.
02:16
But we know a little bit about risk mitigation
51
124590
2128
Ali znamo ponešto o smanjenju rizika
02:18
and a little bit about financial engineering,
52
126718
2248
i o finansijskom inženjeringu,
02:20
and so we started thinking, what could we do?
53
128966
2093
i razmišljali smo šta možemo da uradimo.
02:23
What I'm going to tell you about is some work
54
131059
1949
Ispričaću vam na čemu radimo
02:25
we've been doing over the last couple years
55
133008
2006
poslednjih par godina,
02:27
that we think could fundamentally change the way
56
135014
2893
a smatramo da to može
iz osnova da promeni način
iz osnova da promeni način
02:29
research for cancer and lots
of other things gets done.
of other things gets done.
57
137907
3843
na koji se rade istraživanja za rak,
kao i mnoge druge stvari.
kao i mnoge druge stvari.
02:33
We want to let the research drive the funding,
58
141750
2413
Hoćemo da istraživanja
upravljaju finansiranjem,
upravljaju finansiranjem,
02:36
not the other way around.
59
144163
2282
a ne obrnuto.
02:38
So in order to get started, let me tell you
60
146445
1230
Prvo, da vam ispričam
02:39
how you get a drug financed.
61
147675
2063
kako se finansira neki lek.
02:41
Imagine that you're in your lab --
62
149738
1622
Zamislite da ste u laboratoriji -
02:43
you're a scientist, you're not like me --
63
151360
1663
vi ste naučnik, niste kao ja -
02:45
you're a scientist, and you've developed
64
153023
1854
vi ste naučnik i razvili ste
02:46
a new compound that you think might be
65
154877
2339
novi lek za koji smatrate da bi mogao
02:49
therapeutic for somebody with cancer.
66
157216
2899
da leči nekoga ko ima rak.
02:52
Well, what you do is, you test in animals,
67
160115
2208
Prvo testirate na životinjama,
02:54
you test in test tubes,
68
162323
1500
testirate u epruvetama,
02:55
but there's this notion of going from the bench
69
163823
1743
ali imate osećaj da idete od klupe
02:57
to the bedside,
70
165566
1410
do bolesničke postelje,
a da biste došli od klupe,
iz laboratorije,
iz laboratorije,
02:58
and in order to get from the bench, the lab,
71
166976
1575
03:00
to the bedside, to the patients,
72
168551
1773
do bolesničke postelje, do pacijenata,
03:02
you've got to get the drug tested.
73
170324
2058
morate da testirate lek.
03:04
And the way the drug gets tested is through a series
74
172382
1752
Lekovi se testiraju kroz niz,
03:06
of, basically, experiments,
75
174134
1860
u osnovi, eksperimenata,
03:07
through these large, they're called trials,
76
175994
1848
putem velikih ispitivanja,
03:09
that they do to determine whether the drug is safe
77
177842
2199
da bi utvrdili da li je lek bezbedan
03:12
and whether it works and all these things.
78
180041
2188
i da li ima očekivano dejstvo.
03:14
So the FDA has a very specific protocol.
79
182229
2725
Agencija za lekove ima određeni protokol.
03:16
In the first phase of this testing,
80
184954
1412
Prva faza testiranja,
03:18
which is called testing for toxicity,
81
186366
2395
testiranje toksičnosti,
03:20
it's called Phase I.
82
188761
1542
zove se Faza I.
03:22
In the first phase, you give
the drug to healthy people
the drug to healthy people
83
190303
2781
U prvoj fazi, dajete lek zdravim ljudima
03:25
and you see if it actually makes them sick.
84
193084
3249
i proveravate
da li će se razboleti od njega.
da li će se razboleti od njega.
03:28
In other words, are the side effects just so severe
85
196333
1887
Tj, jesu li sporedna dejstva
toliko ozbiljna
toliko ozbiljna
03:30
that no matter how much good it does,
86
198220
1364
da bez obzira koliko je dobar,
neće biti vredan toga?
neće biti vredan toga?
03:31
it's not going to be worth it?
87
199584
1475
03:33
Does it cause heart attacks, kill people,
88
201059
2000
Da li uzrokuje infarkt, ubija ljude,
utiče na otkazivanje jetre i slično?
03:35
liver failure, this kind of thing?
89
203059
1611
03:36
And it turns out, that's a pretty high hurdle.
90
204670
1949
Ispostavlja se da je to velika prepreka.
03:38
About a third of all drugs drop out at that point.
91
206619
2812
Trećina lekova ispadne u toj fazi.
03:41
In the next phase, you test
to see if the drug's effective,
to see if the drug's effective,
92
209431
2764
U sledećoj fazi,
testira se efektivnost leka,
testira se efektivnost leka,
03:44
and what you do there is you
give it to people with cancer
give it to people with cancer
93
212195
1904
tada dajete lek ljudima koji imaju rak
03:46
and you see if it actually makes them better.
94
214099
1619
i pratite da li im zaista pomaže.
03:47
And that's also a higher hurdle. People drop out.
95
215718
2019
To je još veća prepreka. Ljudi odustaju.
03:49
And in the third phase, you actually
test it on a very large sample,
test it on a very large sample,
96
217737
2820
U 3. fazi testirate lek
na veoma velikom uzorku,
na veoma velikom uzorku,
03:52
and what you're trying to determine
is what the right dose is, and also,
is what the right dose is, and also,
97
220557
3196
gde pokušavate da utvrdite pravu dozu,
03:55
is it better than what's available today?
98
223753
1894
i da li je bolji od dostupnih lekova?
03:57
If not, then why build it?
99
225647
2039
Ukoliko nije, zašto ga pravimo?
03:59
When you're done with all that,
100
227686
2068
Kada završite sa svim tim,
04:01
what you have is a very small percentage of drugs
101
229754
2471
mali procenat lekova
04:04
that start the process actually
come out the other side.
come out the other side.
102
232225
2939
koji krene u proces,
zapravo izađe na tržište.
zapravo izađe na tržište.
04:07
So those blue bottles, those blue bottles save lives,
103
235164
3560
Te plave bočice,
te plave bočice spasavaju živote,
te plave bočice spasavaju živote,
04:10
and they're also worth billions,
104
238724
1462
i vrede milijarde,
04:12
sometimes billions a year.
105
240186
2372
ponekad nekoliko milijardi godišnje.
04:14
So now here's a question:
106
242558
1682
Tu se postavlja pitanje:
04:16
if I were to ask you, for example,
107
244240
3316
da vas pitam, na primer,
04:19
to make a one-time investment of, say,
108
247556
2069
da investirate jednokratno
04:21
200 million dollars
109
249625
1734
200 miliona dolara
04:23
to buy one of those bottles,
110
251359
1669
da kupite jednu od tih bočica,
04:25
so 200 million dollars up front, one time,
111
253028
2199
znači 200 miliona dolara unapred,
jednokratno,
jednokratno,
04:27
to buy one of those bottles,
112
255227
1122
da kupite jednu bočicu,
04:28
I won't tell you which one it is,
113
256349
1753
neću vam reći koja je to,
04:30
and in 10 years, I'll tell you whether
you have one of the blue ones.
you have one of the blue ones.
114
258102
3931
a za 10 godina, reći ću vam
da li je to jedna od ovih plavih.
da li je to jedna od ovih plavih.
04:34
Does that sound like a good deal for anybody?
115
262033
2043
Zvuči li vam to kao dobar posao?
04:36
No. No, right?
116
264076
1466
Ne. Ne, zar ne?
04:37
And of course, it's a very, very risky trial position,
117
265542
1966
I naravno, veoma je rizična pozicija,
04:39
and that's why it's very hard to get funding,
118
267508
1720
zato je veoma teško naći finansije,
04:41
but to a first approximation,
119
269228
1712
ali prva procena
04:42
that's actually the proposal.
120
270940
1651
je zapravo ponuda.
04:44
You have to fund these things
121
272591
1567
Morate da finansirate sve to od početka.
04:46
from the early stages on. It takes a long time.
122
274158
2991
Potrebno je mnogo vremena.
04:49
So Andrew said to me, he said,
123
277149
3441
I Endru mi je rekao:
"Šta ako prestanemo da razmišljamo
o njima kao o lekovima?
o njima kao o lekovima?
04:52
"What if we stop thinking about these as drugs?
124
280590
2349
04:54
What if we start thinking about
them as financial assets?"
them as financial assets?"
125
282939
2674
Šta ako počnemo da razmišljamo
o njima kao o finansijskim sredstvima?
o njima kao o finansijskim sredstvima?
04:57
They've got really weird payoff
structures and all that,
structures and all that,
126
285613
2077
Imaju čudnu strukturu otplate,
04:59
but let's throw everything we know
127
287690
1458
ali hajde da odbacimo sve što znamo
05:01
about financial engineering at them.
128
289148
1667
o finansijskom inženjeringu.
05:02
Let's see if we can use all the tricks of the trade
129
290815
1785
Hajde da iskoristimo sve trikove zanata
05:04
to figure out how to make these drugs
130
292600
2804
da otkrijemo kako da učinimo te lekove
05:07
work as financial assets?
131
295404
2726
finansijskim sredstvima?
05:10
Let's create a giant fund.
132
298130
1684
Hajde da oformimo ogroman fond.
05:11
In finance, we know what to do
133
299814
1495
U finansijama znamo šta raditi
05:13
with assets that are risky.
134
301309
1326
s rizičnim sredstvima.
Stavimo ih u portfolio i pokušamo
05:14
You put them in a portfolio
135
302635
1473
05:16
and you try to smooth out the returns.
136
304108
1680
da obezbedimo povraćaj investicije.
05:17
So we did some math, and it turned out
137
305788
1351
Malo smo računali i ispostavilo se
05:19
you could make this work,
but in order to make it work,
but in order to make it work,
138
307139
2807
da ovo može da uspe, ali da bi uspelo,
05:21
you need about 80 to 150 drugs.
139
309946
2569
potrebno vam je 80 do 150 lekova.
05:24
Now the good news is, there's plenty of drugs
140
312515
1590
Dobra vest je da ima mnogo lekova
05:26
that are waiting to be tested.
141
314105
1281
koji čekaju testiranje.
05:27
We've been told that there's a backlog
142
315386
2337
Rekli su nam da lekovi na listi
05:29
of about 20 years of drugs
143
317723
2289
čekaju po 20 godina
05:32
that are waiting to be tested but can't be funded.
144
320012
2655
na testiranje,
ali ne mogu da nađu finansije.
ali ne mogu da nađu finansije.
05:34
In fact, that early stage of the funding process,
145
322667
2106
Ta rana faza procesa finansiranja,
05:36
that Phase I and pre-clinical stuff,
146
324773
2236
ta Faza I i pre-klinička ispitivanja,
05:39
that's actually, in the industry,
called the Valley of Death
called the Valley of Death
147
327009
2332
to se u toj industriji zove Dolina smrti
05:41
because it's where drugs go to die.
148
329359
1675
jer tu lekovi odlaze da umru.
05:43
It's very hard to for them to get through there,
149
331034
1577
Veoma je teško proći kroz to
05:44
and of course, if you can't get through there,
you can't get to the later stages.
you can't get to the later stages.
150
332611
4203
i naravno, ako ne možete proći kroz to,
ne možete stići do kasnijih faza.
ne možete stići do kasnijih faza.
05:48
So we did this math, and we figured out, okay,
151
336814
1596
I mi smo sabrali i izračunali da,
05:50
well, you know, you need about 80 to, say, 150,
152
338410
2599
zapravo, treba vam oko 80
do recimo, 150 lekova
do recimo, 150 lekova
05:53
or something like that, drugs.
153
341009
1877
ili nešto slično.
05:54
And then we did a little more math, and we said,
154
342886
1875
I onda smo još malo računali, i rekli,
05:56
okay, well that's a fund of about
155
344761
1610
dobro, to je fond od oko
05:58
three to 15 billion dollars.
156
346371
3314
3 do 15 milijardi dolara.
06:01
So we kind of created a new problem
157
349685
2356
I tako smo stvorili novi problem
06:04
by solving the old one.
158
352041
1331
rešavajući stari.
06:05
We were able to get rid of the risk,
but now we need a lot of capital,
but now we need a lot of capital,
159
353372
2615
Otklonili smo rizik,
ali nam treba veliki kapital,
ali nam treba veliki kapital,
06:07
and there's only one place to get that kind of capital,
160
355987
1938
a možemo ga dobiti samo
06:09
the capital markets.
161
357925
1164
na tržištu kapitala.
06:11
Venture capitalists don't have it.
Philanthropies don't have it.
Philanthropies don't have it.
162
359089
2814
Kapitalisti ga nemaju.
Filantropi ga nemaju.
Filantropi ga nemaju.
06:13
But we have to figure out how we can
get people in the capital markets,
get people in the capital markets,
163
361903
2004
Ali moramo da dovedemo ljude na tržište,
06:15
who traditionally don't invest in this stuff,
164
363907
1543
koji obično ne investiraju u to,
06:17
to want to invest in this stuff.
165
365450
1607
da žele da investiraju.
06:19
So again, financial engineering was helpful here.
166
367057
2965
I opet nam je pomogao
finansijski inženjering.
finansijski inženjering.
06:22
Imagine the megafund actually starts empty,
167
370022
2983
Zamislite da taj megafond počinje od nule,
06:25
and what it does is it issues some debt
168
373005
2783
i on zapravo ispostavlja dug
06:27
and some equity,
169
375788
1321
i kapital,
06:29
and that generates cash flow.
170
377109
1679
i to stvara tok novca.
Onda se novac koristi za kupovinu
06:30
That cash flow is used, then, to buy
171
378788
1240
06:32
that big portfolio of drugs that you need,
172
380028
2017
tog portfolija potrebnih lekova,
06:34
and those drugs start working their way
173
382045
1536
i ti lekovi počinju da izlaze
06:35
through that approval process,
174
383581
1812
kroz proces odobrenja,
06:37
and each time they go through
a next phase of approval,
a next phase of approval,
175
385393
1634
i kako prolaze kroz svaku fazu,
06:39
they gain value.
176
387027
964
dobijaju vrednost.
06:39
And most of them don't make it,
177
387991
1272
I većina njih ne uspe,
06:41
but a few of them do,
178
389263
1299
ali neki uspeju,
06:42
and with the ones that gain value, you can sell some,
179
390562
2589
a one koje dobiju vrednost,
možete da prodate,
možete da prodate,
06:45
and when you sell them,
180
393151
1426
i kad ih prodate,
06:46
you have money to pay the interest on those bonds,
181
394577
1539
imate novca da platite
kamatu na obveznice,
kamatu na obveznice,
06:48
but you also have money to
fund the next round of trials.
fund the next round of trials.
182
396116
2478
ali imate i para
za sledeću fazu testiranja.
za sledeću fazu testiranja.
06:50
It's almost self-funding.
183
398594
2109
Gotovo samo-finansiranje.
06:52
You do that for the course of the transaction,
184
400703
2718
Radite to tokom transakcije,
06:55
and when you're done, you liquidate the portfolio,
185
403421
1681
kad završite, likvidirate portfolio,
06:57
pay back the bonds, and you can
186
405102
1665
otplatite obveznice i možete
06:58
give the equity holders a nice return.
187
406767
1952
vlasnicima kapitala da date lep povrat.
07:00
So that was the theory, and we talked about it
188
408719
2243
I to je bila teorija
i pričali smo o tome malo,
i pričali smo o tome malo,
07:02
for a bit, we did a bunch of experiments,
189
410962
1672
uradili gomilu eksperimenata,
07:04
and then we said, let's really try to test it.
190
412634
2621
i onda smo rekli,
hajde da zaista pokušamo s testiranjem.
hajde da zaista pokušamo s testiranjem.
07:07
We spent the next two years doing research.
191
415255
3429
Naredne dve godine
smo proveli istražujući.
smo proveli istražujući.
07:10
We talked to hundreds of experts in drug financing
192
418684
3112
Pričali smo sa stotinama stručnjaka
za finansiranje lekova
za finansiranje lekova
07:13
and venture capital.
193
421796
1644
i preduzetnički kapital.
07:15
We talked to people who have developed drugs.
194
423440
2203
Pričali smo s ljudima
koji su razvijali lekove.
koji su razvijali lekove.
07:17
We talked to pharmaceutical companies.
195
425643
1566
Pričali smo s farmaceutskim kompanijama.
07:19
We actually looked at the data for drugs,
196
427209
3364
Zapravo smo pogledali podatke za lekove,
07:22
over 2,000 drugs that had been approved or denied
197
430573
2680
preko 2000 lekova
koji su odobreni, odbijeni
koji su odobreni, odbijeni
07:25
or withdrawn,
198
433253
1415
ili povučeni
07:26
and we also ran millions of simulations.
199
434668
3308
i takođe smo sproveli milione simulacija.
07:29
And all that actually took a lot of time.
200
437976
2426
Sve to je trajalo dosta vremena.
07:32
But when we were done, what we found was something that was sort of surprising.
201
440402
3033
Ali kad smo završili,
otkrili smo nešto iznenađujuće.
otkrili smo nešto iznenađujuće.
Zapravo je bilo moguće
strukturisati taj fond
strukturisati taj fond
07:35
It was actually feasible to structure that fund
202
443435
2019
07:37
such that when you were done structuring it,
203
445454
2338
tako da kada biste s time završili,
zapravo biste mogli da dobijete
obveznice s malim rizikom,
obveznice s malim rizikom,
07:39
you could actually produce low-risk bonds
204
447792
2335
07:42
that would be attractive to bond holders,
205
450127
1397
atraktivne vlasnicima obveznica,
07:43
that would give you yields of
about five to eight percent,
about five to eight percent,
206
451524
2784
koje bi vam dale dobit
od oko pet do osam procenata
od oko pet do osam procenata
07:46
and you could produce equity
207
454308
1673
i mogli biste dobiti kapital
koji bi vlasnicima kapitala
obezbedio povrat od 12%.
obezbedio povrat od 12%.
07:47
that would give equity holders
about a 12-percent return.
about a 12-percent return.
208
455981
2311
07:50
Now those returns aren't going to be attractive
209
458292
1526
Ovaj povrat neće biti toliko atraktivan
07:51
to a venture capitalist.
210
459818
1569
jednom kapitalisti.
07:53
Venture capitalists are those guys
who want to make those big bets
who want to make those big bets
211
461387
2186
Kapitalisti su oni tipovi
koji žele da ulažu mnogo
koji žele da ulažu mnogo
07:55
and get those billion dollar payoffs.
212
463573
2136
i dobiju profit u milijardama dolara.
07:57
But it turns out, there are lots of other folks
that would be interested in that.
that would be interested in that.
213
465709
2823
Ali se ispostavlja da ima
dosta drugih ljudi koje to interesuje.
dosta drugih ljudi koje to interesuje.
08:00
That's right in the investment sweet spot
214
468532
1751
To je tačno na idealnom mestu
08:02
of pension funds and 401(k) plans
215
470283
2653
kod penzionih fondova
08:04
and all this other stuff.
216
472936
1585
i svih drugih stvari.
08:06
So we published some articles
in the academic press.
in the academic press.
217
474521
2285
Objavili smo i neke članke
u akademskim časopisima.
u akademskim časopisima.
08:08
We published articles in medical journals.
218
476806
2599
Objavili smo članke
u medicinskim zbornicima.
u medicinskim zbornicima.
08:11
We published articles in finance journals.
219
479405
2340
Objavili smo članke
u finansijskim zbornicima.
u finansijskim zbornicima.
08:13
But it wasn't until we actually
220
481745
1268
Ali publicitet nismo dobili
08:15
got the popular press interested in this
221
483013
1978
sve dok u ovo nismo uvukli
08:16
that we began to get some traction.
222
484991
2662
i popularnu štampu.
Želeli smo da uradimo nešto više
od toga da ovo predočimo ljudima.
od toga da ovo predočimo ljudima.
08:19
We wanted to do something more than
just make people aware of it, though.
just make people aware of it, though.
223
487653
2483
08:22
We wanted people to get involved.
224
490136
1481
Želeli smo da uključimo ljude.
08:23
So what we did was, we actually
took all of our computer code
took all of our computer code
225
491617
2090
Onda smo uzeli sav naš kompjuterski kod
08:25
and made that available online
226
493707
1554
i učinili smo ga dostupnim na internetu
08:27
under an open-source license
227
495261
1665
pod licencom otvorenog koda,
08:28
to anybody that wanted it.
228
496926
1351
za sve koji su ga želeli.
I vi možete to danas da preuzmete
08:30
And you guys can download it today
229
498277
1734
ako želite da eksperimentišete
i vidite da li ovo funkcioniše.
i vidite da li ovo funkcioniše.
08:32
if you want to run your own experiments
to see if this would work.
to see if this would work.
230
500011
2235
08:34
And that was really effective, because people
231
502246
1415
To je bilo veoma efektivno, jer su ljudi
08:35
that didn't believe our assumptions
232
503661
1734
koji nisu verovali u naše pretpostavke
08:37
could try their own assumptions
and see how it would work.
and see how it would work.
233
505395
2706
mogli da probaju svoje pretpostavke
da vide da li one rade.
da vide da li one rade.
08:40
Now there's an obvious problem, which is,
234
508101
2638
Tu postoji očigledan problem, a to je -
08:42
is there enough money in
the world to fund this stuff?
the world to fund this stuff?
235
510739
2172
da li na svetu postoji dovoljno novca
da se ovo isfinansira?
da se ovo isfinansira?
08:44
I've told you there's enough drugs,
236
512911
1414
Rekao sam vam da je lekova dovoljno,
08:46
but is there enough money?
237
514325
1831
ali da li ima dovoljno novca?
08:48
There's 100 trillion dollars of capital
238
516156
2725
Trenutno je 100 biliona dolara kapitala
08:50
currently invested in fixed-income securities.
239
518881
3541
uloženo u hartije od vrednosti
sa fiksnim prihodom.
sa fiksnim prihodom.
08:54
That's a hundred thousand billion.
240
522422
3603
To je stotinu hiljada milijardi.
08:58
There's plenty of money.
241
526025
1926
To je dosta novca.
08:59
(Laughter)
242
527951
3223
(Smeh)
09:03
But what we realized was that it's
more than just money that's required.
more than just money that's required.
243
531174
3037
Ali shvatili smo da je neophodno
više od novca.
više od novca.
Moramo da motivišemo ljude,
da ih uključimo
da ih uključimo
09:06
We had to get people motivated,
people to get involved,
people to get involved,
244
534211
1829
09:08
and people had to understand this.
245
536040
2524
i da oni ovo razumeju.
Tako smo počeli da razmišljamo
o svemu što bi moglo da krene po zlu.
o svemu što bi moglo da krene po zlu.
09:10
And so we started thinking about all
the different things that could go wrong.
the different things that could go wrong.
246
538564
2900
09:13
What are all the challenges to doing
this that might get in the way?
this that might get in the way?
247
541486
3329
Koji su izazovi
koji bi mogli da se ispreče?
koji bi mogli da se ispreče?
09:16
And we had a long list, and so what we did was
248
544815
2047
Imali smo dugačak spisak, tako da smo
09:18
we assigned a bunch of people, including ourselves,
249
546862
2565
gomili ljudi dodelili
različite delove ovog problema,
različite delove ovog problema,
09:21
different pieces of this problem,
250
549427
2185
uključujući nas same,
i rekli smo, možete li da počnete
rad na kreditnom riziku?
rad na kreditnom riziku?
09:23
and we said, could you start
a work stream on credit risk?
a work stream on credit risk?
251
551612
2474
09:26
Could you start a work stream
on the regulatory aspects?
on the regulatory aspects?
252
554086
2376
Da počnete rad na pravnim aspektima?
09:28
Could you start a work stream on
253
556462
1454
Da počnete rad na tome
09:29
how you would actually manage so many projects?
254
557916
2954
kako biste zaista upravljali
sa toliko projekata?
sa toliko projekata?
09:32
And we had all these experts get together
255
560870
1618
Skupili su se svi ovi eksperti
09:34
and do these different work streams,
256
562488
1291
i radili na različitim stvarima
09:35
and then we held a conference.
257
563779
2593
i onda smo održali konferenciju.
09:38
The conference was held over
the summer, this past summer.
the summer, this past summer.
258
566372
2622
Konferencija je održana prošlog leta.
Moglo se ući samo uz pozivnicu.
09:40
It was an invitation-only conference.
259
568994
1377
09:42
It was sponsored by the American Cancer Society
260
570371
2023
Sponzor je bilo
Američko društvo protiv raka
Američko društvo protiv raka
09:44
and done in collaboration
261
572394
1609
u saradnji
09:46
with the National Cancer Institute.
262
574003
2388
sa Državnim institutom za rak.
09:48
And we had experts from every field
that we thought would be important,
that we thought would be important,
263
576391
2755
Imali smo stručnjake iz svih polja
za koja smo mislili da su bitna,
za koja smo mislili da su bitna,
09:51
including the government, including
264
579146
2095
uključujući vladu, ljude koji vode
centre za istraživanje i tako dalje,
09:53
people that run research centers and so on,
265
581241
1557
09:54
and for two days they sat around
and heard the reports
and heard the reports
266
582798
1989
i dva dana su sedeli i slušali izveštaje
09:56
from those five work streams,
and they talked about it.
and they talked about it.
267
584787
1916
sa tih pet aktivnosti i pričali su o tome.
09:58
It was the first time
268
586703
1431
To je bio prvi put da su ljudi
10:00
that the people who could actually make this happen
269
588134
1549
koji zaista ovo mogu da ostvare
10:01
sat across the table from each other
270
589683
1644
sedeli jedni nasuprot drugih
10:03
and had these conversations.
271
591327
2308
i pričali o ovome.
10:05
Now these conferences, it's typical to have a dinner,
272
593635
3509
Kod ovakvih konferencija,
obično postoji večera,
obično postoji večera,
10:09
and at that dinner,
273
597144
1328
i na toj večeri
10:10
you kind of get to know each other,
274
598472
1602
se pomalo upoznajete,
10:12
sort of like what we're doing here.
275
600074
1456
nešto nalik ovome ovde.
Slučajno sam pogledao kroz prozor,
10:13
I happened to look out the window,
276
601530
1606
10:15
and hand on my heart, I looked out the window
277
603136
1878
i s rukom na srcu, gledao sam napolje
10:17
on the night of this conference --
it was the summertime --
it was the summertime --
278
605014
1898
na noć konferencije - bilo je leto -
10:18
and that's what I saw, it was a double rainbow.
279
606912
2382
i to sam video, duplu dugu.
10:21
So I'd like to think it was a good sign.
280
609294
3000
Mislim da je to bio dobar znak.
10:24
Since the conference, we've got people working
281
612294
1986
Od konferencije, ljudi rade
10:26
between Paris and San Francisco,
282
614280
1932
između Pariza i San Franciska,
dosta različitih ljudi radi na ovome
10:28
lots of different folks working on this
283
616212
1636
kako bi pokušali da vide
da li to može i da se ostvari.
da li to može i da se ostvari.
10:29
to try to see if we can really make it happen.
284
617848
2370
10:32
We're not looking to start a fund,
285
620218
1494
Ne razmišljamo o osnivanju fonda,
10:33
but we want somebody else to do this.
286
621712
2178
ali želimo da neko uradi ovo.
10:35
Because, again, I'm not a scientist.
287
623890
2663
Još jednom, zato što nisam naučnik.
10:38
I can't build a drug.
288
626553
1737
Ne mogu da napravim lek.
10:40
I'm never going to have enough money
289
628290
1354
Nikad neću imati dovoljno novca
10:41
to fund even one of those trials.
290
629644
2463
da finansiram samo jedno
od ovih istraživanja.
od ovih istraživanja.
10:44
But all of us together, with our 401(k)'s,
291
632107
2975
Ali svi mi zajedno,
sa našim penzionim planovima,
sa našim penzionim planovima,
10:47
with our 529 plans, with our pension plans,
292
635082
2492
osiguranjima, štednjama,
svi mi zajedno zapravo možemo
da finansiramo stotine istraživanja
da finansiramo stotine istraživanja
10:49
all of us together can actually fund hundreds of trials
293
637574
2870
10:52
and get paid well for doing it
294
640444
1770
i budemo dobro plaćeni za to
10:54
and save millions of lives like my dad.
295
642214
2776
i spasimo milione života poput mog oca.
10:56
Thank you.
296
644990
2330
Hvala vam.
10:59
(Applause)
297
647320
3729
(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Roger Stein - Financial management expertRoger Stein wants to bring financial engineering to the world of drug funding.
Why you should listen
Roger Stein is a senior lecturer in finance at MIT's Sloan School of Management and a research affiliate at the MIT Laboratory for Financial Engineering. He is also the former chief analytics officer at State Street Global Exchange. He has been working in risk modeling and financial prediction for almost 25 years; his products and services are used widely in industry and have become benchmarks in banking and finance. With MIT colleagues, he is currently collaborating on a new model that uses modern risk management methods and financial engineering techniques to change the way new drug research is funded.
Previously he was managing director of research and academic relations globally for Moody’s Corporation, and prior to that was president of Moody’s Research Labs. He has a Ph.D. from New York University, has coauthored two full-length texts on applied analytics, and has written more than 50 academic articles and papers. He has also been practicing Aikido since 1980.
Roger Stein | Speaker | TED.com