TEDGlobal 2010
Johan Rockström: Let the environment guide our development
Johan Rokstrom: Neka životna sredina vodi naš razvoj
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Ljudski rast zauzdao je Zemljine resurse, ali kao što nas Johan Rokstrom podseća, napredovanje nam takođe daje veštinu da to prepoznamo i promenimo ponašanje. Njegovo istraživanje otkrilo je devet "planetarnih veza" koje nas mogu voditi u zaštiti mnogih preklapajućih ekosistema naše planete.
Johan Rockstrom - Sustainability expert
Johan Rockström works to redefine sustainable development, and figure out what needs to happen. Full bio
Johan Rockström works to redefine sustainable development, and figure out what needs to happen. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
We live on a human-dominated planet,
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Živimo na planeti kojom dominira čovek,
00:18
putting unprecedented pressure
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vršeći nečuven pritisak
00:20
on the systems on Earth.
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na sisteme na Zemlji.
00:22
This is bad news, but perhaps surprising to you,
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Ovo su loše vesti, ali možda začuđujuće,
00:24
it's also part of the good news.
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ovo su delom i dobre vesti.
00:26
We're the first generation -- thanks to science --
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Mi smo prva generacija koja zahvaljujući nauci
00:29
to be informed that we may be
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zna da možda
00:31
undermining the stability and the ability
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potkopava stabilnost i sposobnost
00:33
of planet Earth
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planete Zemlje
00:35
to support human development as we know it.
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u cilju podupiranja ljudskog razvoja kakvog danas poznajemo.
00:37
It's also good news, because the planetary risks we're facing
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Ovo su takođe dobre vesti, jer su planetarni rizici
00:40
are so large,
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sa kojima se suočavamo toliko veliki,
00:42
that business as usual is not an option.
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da ustaljeni načini poslovanja nisu opcija.
00:44
In fact, we're in a phase
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Zapravo, nalazimo se u fazi
00:46
where transformative change is necessary,
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gde je neophodna transformacija,
00:49
which opens the window for innovation,
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koja otvara prostor za inovacije,
00:51
for new ideas and new paradigms.
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za nove ideje i nove modele.
00:54
This is a scientific journey on the challenges facing humanity
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Ovo je naučno putovanje sa izazovima koje čovečanstvo sreće
00:57
in the global phase of sustainability.
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u globalnoj fazi održivosti.
00:59
On this journey, I'd like to bring, apart from yourselves,
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Na ovom putovanju, voleo bih da vas odvojim od vas samih,
01:02
a good friend,
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od dobrog prijatelja,
01:04
a stakeholder, who's always absent
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od deoničara, koji su uvek odsutni kada se
01:06
when we deal with the negotiations on environmental issues,
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suočavamo sa pregovorima o problemima životne sredine,
01:08
a stakeholder who refuses to compromise --
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deoničar, koji odbija da se nagodi --
01:11
planet Earth.
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planeta Zemlja
01:13
So I thought I'd bring her with me today on stage,
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Mislio sam da ću je poneti sa sobom na binu,
01:16
to have her as a witness
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da bi mi bila svedok
01:18
of a remarkable journey,
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neobičnog putovanja,
01:21
which humbly reminds us
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koje nas skromno podseća
01:23
of the period of grace we've had
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na period gracioznosti koji smo imali
01:25
over the past 10,000 years.
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tokom proteklih 10.000 godina.
01:27
This is the living conditions on the planet over the last 100,000 years.
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Ovo su uslovi života na planeti tokom posledjih 100.000 godina.
01:30
It's a very important period --
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To je veoma važan period -- to je otprilike
01:32
it's roughly half the period when we've been fully modern humans on the planet.
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polovina vremena kada smo u potpunosti bili savremeni ljudi na planeti.
01:35
We've had the same, roughly, abilities
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Imali smo skoro iste sposobnosti
01:37
that developed civilizations as we know it.
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koje su razvile civilizacije kakve poznajemo danas.
01:39
This is the environmental conditions on the planet.
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Ovo su uslovi životne sredine na planeti.
01:41
Here, used as a proxy, temperature variability.
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Ovo su temperaturne razlike koje se koriste kao primer.
01:44
It was a jumpy ride. 80,000 years back in a crisis,
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Bila je to skakutava vožnja. 80.000 godina unazad u krizi,
01:47
we leave Africa, we colonize Australia
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napustili smo Afriku, kolonzovali Australiju
01:49
in another crisis, 60,000 years back,
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u narednoj krizi, 60.000 godina unazad,
01:51
we leave Asia for Europe
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napustili smo Aziju zbog Evrope
01:53
in another crisis, 40,000 years back,
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u još jednoj krizi, 40.000 godina unazad,
01:55
and then we enter
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a onda smo ušli
01:57
the remarkably stable Holocene phase,
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u izrazito stabilno razdoblje Holocena,
02:00
the only period in the whole history of the planet,
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jedini period u čitavoj istoriji planete,
02:03
that we know of, that can support human development.
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za koji znamo da može da podrži ljudski razvoj.
02:05
A thousand years into this period,
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Hiljadama godina unutar ovog perioda,
02:07
we abandon our hunting and gathering patterns.
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napuštali smo naše navike lova i sakupljanja plodova.
02:10
We go from a couple of million people
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Došli smo od nekoliko miliona ljudi
02:12
to the seven billion people we are today.
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do sedam milijardi, koliko nas ima danas.
02:14
The Mesopotamian culture: we invent agriculture,
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Kultura Mesopotamije: izumeli smo zemljoradnju,
02:16
we domesticate animals and plants.
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pripitomili životinje i biljke.
02:18
You have the Roman, the Greek and the story as you know it.
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Imate Rimljane i Grke i priču koju već znate.
02:21
The only phase, as we know it
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Jedina era, kao što znamo
02:23
that can support humanity.
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koja može podupreti čovečanstvo.
02:25
The trouble is we're putting a quadruple sqeeze
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Nevolja je u tome što četvorostruko
02:27
on this poor planet,
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više cedimo ovu jadnu planetu,
02:29
a quadruple sqeeze, which, as its first squeeze,
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četvorostruko više cedimo, što je, sa svojim prvim ceđenjem
02:32
has population growth of course.
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naravno imalo za rezultat rast populacije.
02:35
Now, this is not only about numbers;
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E sad, ne radi se samo o brojevima;
02:37
this is not only about the fact that we're seven billion people
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niti se radi o činjenici da je nas sedam milijardi ljudi
02:39
committed to nine billion people, it's an equity issue as well.
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počinjeno za devet milijardi ljudi, takođe se radi o problemu pravičnosti.
02:42
The majority of the environmental impacts on the planet
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Većina uticaja na životnu sredinu na planeti
02:44
have been caused by the rich minority,
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izazvana je bogatom manjinom,
02:46
the 20 percent that jumped onto the industrial bandwagon
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20 procenata onih koji su se okoristili
02:48
in the mid-18th century.
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na početku 18. veka.
02:50
The majority of the planet,
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Većina planete,
02:52
aspiring for development, having the right for development,
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težeći ka razvoju, imajući pravo na razvoj,
02:54
are in large aspiring for an unsustainable lifestyle,
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je u velikoj težnji za neodrživim životnim stilom,
02:57
a momentous pressure.
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to je trenutni pritisak.
02:59
The second pressure on the planet is, of course the climate agenda --
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Drugi pritisak na planetu je, naravno klimatska agenda -
03:01
the big issue -- where the policy interpretation of science
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veliki problem -- gde se politika svodi na to
03:03
is that it would be enough
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da bi bilo dovoljno 450 ppm (jedinica koncentracije)
03:05
to stabilize greenhouse gases at 450 ppm
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za ublažavanje efekata staklene bašte,
03:08
to avoid average temperatures
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da bi se izbeglo da se prosečne temperature
03:10
exceeding two degrees,
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povise za dva stepena;
03:12
to avoid the risk that we may be destabilizing
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da bi se izbegli rizici za moguću destabilizaciju
03:14
the West Antarctic Ice Sheet,
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zapadno antarktičkog ledenog štita,
03:16
holding six meters -- level rising,
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čija je trenutna debljina šest metara, a nivo raste;
03:18
the risk of destabilizing the Greenland Ice Sheet,
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rizik od destabilizacije ledenog štita na Grenlandu,
03:20
holding another seven meters -- sea level rising.
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koji sadrži još sedam metara -- nivo mora raste.
03:22
Now, you would have wished the climate pressure
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Zaželeli biste da pritisak klime
03:24
to hit a strong planet, a resilient planet,
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pogodi planetu koja je jaka i otporna,
03:26
but unfortunately, the third pressure
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ali na žalost, treći pritisak
03:28
is the ecosystem decline.
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je smanjenje ekosistema.
03:30
Never have we seen, in the past 50 years,
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Nikada nismo videli, u poslednjih 50 godina,
03:32
such a sharp decline
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tako oštar pad
03:34
of ecosystem functions and services on the planet,
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funkcija i usluga ekosistema na planeti,
03:37
one of them being the ability to regulate climate on the long term,
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kao što je dugoročna sposobnost regulisanja klime,
03:40
in our forests, land and biodiversity.
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u našim šumama, u zemlji i biološke raznolikosti.
03:43
The forth pressure is surprise,
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Četvrti pritisak je iznenađenje,
03:45
the notion and the evidence
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ideja i dokaz
03:47
that we need to abandon our old paradigm,
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da moramo napustiti naše stare modele
03:49
that ecosystems behave linearly, predictably,
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u kojima se ekosistemi ponašaju linearno, predvidivo,
03:52
controllably in our -- so to say -- linear systems,
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kontrolisano u našim -- da tako kažemo -- linearnim sistemima
03:55
and that in fact, surprise is universal,
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i da je zapravo, iznenađenje univerzalno,
03:57
as systems tip over very rapidly, abruptly
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kako se sistemi menjaju vrlo ubrzano, iznenadno
03:59
and often irreversibly.
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i često puta nepovratno.
04:01
This, dear friends, poses a human pressure on the planet
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Ovo, dragi prijatelji, predstavlja pritisak čoveka na planetu
04:04
of momentous scale.
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u značajnom obimu.
04:07
We may, in fact, have entered a new geological era --
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Možda smo, zapravo, ušli u novo geološko razdoblje
04:10
the Anthropocene,
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Antropocen,
04:12
where humans are the predominant driver of change
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gde su ljudi pretežni nosioci promena
04:14
at a planetary level.
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na nivou planete.
04:16
Now, as a scientist,
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Pitam se kao naučnik,
04:18
what's the evidence for this?
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koji je dokaz za to?
04:20
Well, the evidence is,
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Pa, dokaz je,
04:22
unfortunately, ample.
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na žalost, rasprostranjen.
04:24
It's not only carbon dioxide
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To nije samo ugljen dioksid
04:26
that has this hockey stick pattern of accelerated change.
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čija ubrzana promena ima oblik hokejaškog štapa.
04:29
You can take virtually any parameter
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Zapravo možete uzeti bilo koji pokazatelj
04:31
that matters for human well-being --
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važan za dobro čoveka --
04:33
nitrous oxide, methane,
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azot-oksid, metan,
04:35
deforestation, overfishing
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krčenje šuma, povećani izlov ribe
04:37
land degredation, loss of species --
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degradacija tla, nestanak vrsta --
04:40
they all show the same pattern
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svi oni pokazuju isti šablon
04:42
over the past 200 years.
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u poslednjih 200 godina.
04:45
Simultaneously, they branch off in the mid-50s,
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Istovremeno, račvaju se sredinom 50-ih godina,
04:48
10 years after the Second World War,
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10 godina posle Drugog svetskog rata,
04:51
showing very clearly that the great acceleration of the human enterprise
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jasno pokazujući da je značajno ubrzanje ljudskih inicijativa
04:54
starts in the mid-50s.
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započelo sredinom 50-ih.
04:56
You see, for the first time, an imprint on the global level.
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Vidite, po prvi put, otisak na globalnom nivou.
04:59
And I can tell you,
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I mogu vam reći,
05:01
you enter the disciplinary research in each of these,
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ako ulazite u disciplinarno istraživanje svakog od ovih,
05:03
you find something remarkably important,
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naći ćete nešto vrlo važno;
05:06
the conclusion that we may have come to the point
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zaključak da smo možda došli do tačke
05:09
where we have to bend the curves,
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gde moramo saviti krivu,
05:11
that we may have entered the most challenging and exciting decade
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da smo možda ušli u najizazovniju i najuzbudljiviju deceniju
05:14
in the history humanity on the planet,
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u istoriji čovečanstva na planeti,
05:17
the decade when we have to bend the curves.
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deceniju gde moramo u stvari saviti krive.
05:20
Now, as if this was not enough --
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Ako ovo nije dovoljno --
05:22
to just bend the curves and understanding the accelerated pressure on the planet --
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da prosto savijemo krive i razumemo ubrzani pritisak na planetu --
05:25
we also have to recognize the fact
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takođe trebamo prepoznati činjenicu
05:27
that systems do have multiple stable states,
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da sistemi imaju višestruka stabilna stanja,
05:30
separated by thresholds -- illustrated here by this ball and cup diagram,
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razdvojena pragovima -- ilustracija lopte i dijagrama u obliku kupe
05:33
where the depth of the cup is the resilience of the system.
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gde je dubina kupe otpornost sistema.
05:36
Now, the system may gradually --
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Sistem može postepeno --
05:39
under pressure of climate change,
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pod pritiskom klimatskih promena,
05:41
erosion, biodiversity loss --
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erozije, gubitka biološke raznolikosti
05:43
lose the depth of the cup, the resilience,
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gubiti dubinu kupe, otpornost,
05:45
but appear to be healthy
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ali izgledati da je zdrav
05:47
and appear to suddenly, under a threshold,
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i da se iznenada, ispod praga,
05:49
be tipping over. Upff.
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menja. Uh.
05:51
Sorry. Changing state
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Oprostite. Menjajući stanje
05:54
and literally ending up
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i doslovno završavajući
05:56
in an undesired situation,
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u neželjenoj situaciji,
06:00
where new biophysical logic takes over,
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gde nova logika biofizike, nove vrste
06:03
new species take over, and the system gets locked.
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preuzimaju stvar, a sistem ostaje zaključan.
06:05
Do we have evidence of this? Yes, coral reef systems.
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Imamo li dokaz za to? Da, sistemi koralnih grebena.
06:09
Biodiverse, low-nutrient, hard coral systems
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Biološki raznovrsni, nisko-hranljivi, tvrdi koralni sistemi
06:12
under multiple pressures of overfishing,
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pod višestrukim pritiscima izlovljavanja ribe,
06:15
unsustainable tourism, climate change.
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neodrživog turizma, klimatske promene.
06:17
A trigger and the system tips over,
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Jedan okidač i sistem se preokreće,
06:19
loses its resilience,
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gubeći svoju otpornost,
06:21
soft corals take over,
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meki korali preuzimaju teritoriju,
06:23
and we get undesired systems
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tada dobijamo neželjene sisteme
06:25
that cannot support economic and social development.
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koji ne mogu podržati ekonomski i društveni razvoj.
06:27
The Arctic -- a beautiful system --
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Arktik -- prelep sistem --
06:29
a regulating biome at the planetary level,
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regulišući biom na nivou planete,
06:31
taking the knock after knock on climate change,
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dobijajući udarac za udarcem pri klimatskoj promeni,
06:34
appearing to be in a good state.
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čini se da je u doborm stanju.
06:36
No scientist could predict that in 2007,
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Ni jedan naučnik nije mogao predvideti šta će 2007.
06:38
suddenly, what could be crossing a threshold.
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iznenada, možda preći prag.
06:41
The system suddenly, very surprisingly, loses 30 to 40 percent
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Sistem, odjednom, iznenada gubi 30 do 40 procenata
06:43
of its summer ice cover.
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letnjeg ledenog pokrivača.
06:45
And the drama is, of course, that
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Drama je, naravno, u tome kada
06:47
when the system does this, the logic may change.
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se ovo dogodi, logika može biti promenjena.
06:49
It may get locked in an undesired state,
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Sistem može biti zaključan u neželjenom stanju
06:51
because it changes color, absorbs more energy,
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jer menja boju, absorbuje više energije,
06:53
and the system may get stuck.
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i tako može zaglaviti.
06:55
In my mind, the largest red flag warning for humanity
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Što se mene tiče, najveće upozorenje za čovečanstvo
06:58
that we are in a precarious situation.
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je da smo u neizvesnoj situaciji.
07:01
As a sideline, you know that the only red flag that popped up here
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Kao sporedna stvar, znate da jedino upozorenje koje se ovde pojavljuje
07:04
was a submarine from an unnamed country
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jeste podmornica iz neimenovane države
07:06
that planted a red flag at the bottom of the Arctic
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koja je postavila crvenu zastavu na dnu Arktika
07:09
to be able to control the oil resources.
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da bi mogla da kontroliše naftne resurse.
07:12
Now, if we have evidence, which we now have,
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Ukoliko imamo dokaz, koji sada imamo,
07:15
that wetlands, forests,
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da se močvare, šume,
07:17
[unclear] monsoon system, the rainforests,
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monsuni, kišne šume,
07:19
behave in this nonlinear way.
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ponašaju na nelinearan način.
07:21
30 or so scientists around the world
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Oko 30 naučnika širom sveta se
07:23
gathered and asked a question for the first time,
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okupilo i upitalo po prvi put,
07:25
"Do we have to put the planet into the the pot?"
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"Da li moramo da stavimo planetu u lonac?"
07:27
So we have to ask ourselves:
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Tada se moramo zapitati:
07:29
are we threatening this extraordinarily stable Holocene state?
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da li pretimo ovom retkom stanju stabilnosti Holocena?
07:33
Are we in fact putting ourselves in a situation
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Da li se u stvari stavljamo u situaciju
07:35
where we're coming too close
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gde vrlo brzo dolazimo
07:37
to thresholds that could lead
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do praga koji može voditi
07:39
to deleterious and very undesired,
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štetnoj i neželjenoj,
07:41
if now catastrophic, change
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sada već katastralnoj promeni
07:43
for human development?
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zarad ljudskog razvoja?
07:45
You know, you don't want to stand there.
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Znate, ne biste želeli da se nađete na ovom mestu.
07:47
In fact, you're not even allowed to stand
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Zapravo, nije vam čak ni dozvoljeno da se nađete
07:49
where this gentleman is standing,
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na mestu gde stoji ovaj gospodin,
07:51
at the foaming, slippery waters at the threshold.
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na penušavom, klizavom vodopadu, na ivici.
07:54
In fact, there's a fence
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U stvari, postoji ograda
07:56
quite upstream of this threshold,
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prilično udaljena od ove ivice,
07:58
beyond which you are in a danger zone.
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iza koje se nalazite u zoni opasnosti.
08:00
And this is the new paradigm,
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Tako da je ovo novi model
08:02
which we gathered two, three years back,
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koji smo prikupili dve, tri godine unazad
08:04
recognizing that our old paradigm
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prepoznajući da naš stari model
08:06
of just analyzing and pushing and predicting
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samo analiziranja, predviđanja
08:08
parameters into the future,
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i gurnanja parametara u budućnost,
08:10
aiming at minimalizing environmental impacts, is of the past.
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ciljajući na minimiziranje uticaja na okruženje -- je deo prošlosti.
08:13
Now we to ask ourselves:
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Sada se zapitajmo:
08:15
which are the large environmental processes
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koji su to veliki procesi prirodne sredine
08:17
that we have to be stewards of
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kojima moramo biti sluge
08:19
to keep ourselves safe in the Holocene?
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kako bismo ostali bezbedni u Holocenu?
08:21
And could we even,
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I možemo li uopšte,
08:23
thanks to major advancements in Earth systems science,
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zahvaljujući velikim unapređenjima nauke o Zemljinim sistemima,
08:25
identify the thresholds,
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identifikovati pragove,
08:27
the points where we may expect nonlinear change?
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tačke u kojima možemo očekivati nelinearne promene?
08:30
And could we even define
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I možemo li uopšte definisati
08:32
a planetary boundary, a fence,
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planetarne granice, ogradu,
08:35
within which we then have a safe operating space for humanity?
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u okviru koje imamo siguran prostor za funkcionisanje čovečanstva?
08:38
This work, which was published in "Nature,"
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Ovaj rad, objavljen u žurnalu "Priroda",
08:40
late 2009,
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krajem 2009. godine,
08:42
after a number of years of analysis,
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posle brojnih godina analiza,
08:44
led to the final proposition
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doveo je do finalnog predloga
08:47
that we can only find
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da jedino možemo naći
08:49
nine planetary boundaries
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devet planetarnih veza
08:51
with which, under active stewardship,
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sa kojima bi, aktivno im služeći,
08:54
would allow ourselves to have a safe operating space.
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dopustili sebi da imamo siguran prostor za funkcionisanje.
08:57
These include, of course, climate.
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Ove veze podrazumevaju, naravno, klimu.
08:59
It may surprise you that it's not only climate.
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Može vas iznenaditi da to nije samo klima.
09:01
But it shows that we are interconnected, among many systems on the planet,
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Već da smo u međusobno povezani, sa mnogim sistemima na planeti,
09:04
with the three big systems, climate change,
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zajedno sa tri velika sistema, sa klimatskom promenom,
09:06
stratospheric ozone depletion and ocean acidification
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trošenjem ozona u stratosferi i ukiseljavanjem okeana,
09:09
being the three big systems,
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kao tri sistema,
09:11
where the scientific evidence of large-scale thresholds
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gde nauka svedoči o granicama velikih razmera
09:14
in the paleo-record of the history of the planet.
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u paleo-zapisu istorije planete.
09:17
But we also include, what we call, the slow variables,
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Ali takođe podrazumevamo, ono što zovemo spore promenljive,
09:20
the systems that, under the hood,
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sistemi koji, prikriveno,
09:22
regulate and buffer the capacity of the resilience of the planet --
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regulišu i amortizuju kapacitet otpornosti planete --
09:25
the interference of the big nitrogen and phosphorus cycles on the planet,
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umešanost azotnih i fosfornih ciklusa na planeti,
09:28
land use change, rate of biodiversity loss,
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upotrebu zemljišta, gubitak biološke raznovrsnosti,
09:30
freshwater use,
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upotrebu sveže vode,
09:32
functions which regulate
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funkcije koje regulišu
09:35
biomass on the planet, carbon sequestration, diversity.
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biomasu na planeti, odvajanje ugljenika, raznolikost.
09:38
And then we have two parameters which we were not able to quantify --
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Tada imamo dva pokazatelja koje nismo u stanju da kvantifikujemo --
09:41
air pollution,
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zagađenje vazduha,
09:43
including warming gases and air-polluting sulfates and nitrates,
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uključujući vrele gasove i zagađenje sulfatima i nitratima,
09:46
but also chemical pollution.
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kao i hemijsko zagađenje.
09:49
Together, these form an integrated whole
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Zajedno, ovi pokazatelji čine integrisanu celinu
09:52
for guiding human development in the Anthropocene,
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za vođenje ljudskog razvoja u Antropocenu,
09:54
understanding that the planet
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shvatajući da je planeta
09:56
is a complex self-regulating system.
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kompleksan sistem sa povratnom spregom.
09:59
In fact, most evidence indicates
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Zapravo, većina dokaza ukazuje na to
10:01
that these nine may behave as three Musketeers,
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da se ovih devet veza mogu ponašati kao tri Musketara,
10:04
"One for all. All for one."
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"Svi za jednog. Jedan za sve".
10:06
You degrade forests, you go beyond the boundary on land,
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Degradirate šume, idete iza granica zemlje,
10:09
you undermine the ability of the climate system
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potkopavate sposobnost klimatskog sistema
10:11
to stay stable.
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da ostane stabilan.
10:13
The drama here is, in fact, that
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Nevolja je u tome, zapravo, što
10:15
it may show that the climate challenge
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to može pokazati da su klimatski izazovi
10:17
is the easy one,
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onaj lagani deo,
10:19
if you consider the whole challenge
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ako se uzme u obzir celokupni izazov
10:21
of sustainable development.
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održivog razvoja.
10:24
Now this is the Big Bang equivalent then of human development
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Ovo je Veliki prasak jednak ljudskom razvoju
10:27
within the safe operating space of the planetary boundaries.
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unutar bezbednog prostora planetarnih granica.
10:29
What you see here in black line is the safe operating space,
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Ono što vidite unutar crne linije je bezbedan prostor funkcionisanja,
10:32
the quantified boundaries,
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kvantifikovane granice,
10:34
as suggested by this analysis.
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kao što preporučuju analize.
10:36
The yellow dot in the middle here is our starting point,
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Žuta tačka u sredini je naša početna tačka,
10:38
the pre-industrial point,
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pre-industrijska tačka,
10:40
where we're very safely in the safe operating space.
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gde smo veoma bezbedni u prostoru funkcionisanja.
10:42
In the '50s, we start branching out.
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U 50-im smo počeli da se granamo.
10:45
In the '60s already, through the green revolution
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Već u 60-im, kroz zelenu revoluciju
10:47
and the Haber-Bosch process
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i Haber-Bošov postupak
10:49
of fixing nitrogen from the atmosphere --
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za dobijanje azota iz atmosfere --
10:51
you know, human's today take out more nitrogen from the atmosphere
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znate, ljudi danas uzimaju više azota iz atmosfere
10:54
than the whole biosphere does naturally as a whole.
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nego što čitava biosfera to radi prirodnim putem.
10:58
We don't transgress the climate boundary until the early '90s,
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Nismo prekoračili granice klime sve do ranih 90-ih,
11:01
actually, right after Rio.
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zapravo, odmah posle Rija.
11:03
And today, we are in a situation where we estimate
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Danas se nalazimo u situaciji gde procenjujemo
11:05
that we've transgressed three boundaries,
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da smo prekoračili tri granice,
11:07
the rate of biodiversity loss,
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stopu gubitka biološke raznovrsnosti,
11:09
which is the sixth extinction period in the history of humanity --
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koja je period šestog iskorenjivanja u istoriji čovečanstva --
11:12
one of them being the extinctions of the dinosaurs --
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jedan njih je iskorenjivanje dinosaurusa --
11:15
nitrogen and climate change.
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azot i klimatske promene.
11:17
But we still have some degrees of freedom on the others,
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I dalje imamo neke stepene slobode u odnosu na druge,
11:19
but we are approaching fast
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ali se isto tako brzo približavamo
11:21
on land, water, phosphorus and oceans.
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zemlji, vodi, fosforu i okeanima.
11:23
But this gives a new paradigm
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Ovo nam daje novi primer
11:25
to guide humanity,
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za vođenje čovečanstva,
11:27
to put the light on our, so far
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u osvetljavanju našeg, do sad
11:30
overpowered industrial vehicle,
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potisnutog, industrijskog vozila,
11:32
which operates as if
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koje funkcioniše kao da smo
11:34
we're only on a dark, straight highway.
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sami na mračnom, ravnom autoputu.
11:37
Now the question then is:
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Pitanje je:
11:39
how gloomy is this?
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koliko je ovo sumorno?
11:41
Is then sustainable development utopia?
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Da li postoji utopija održivog razvoja?
11:43
Well, there's no science to suggest.
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Pa, nema nauke da to predloži.
11:45
In fact, there is ample science
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Zapravo, postoji opširna nauka
11:47
to indicate that we can do this transformative change,
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koja ukazuje da možemo napraviti ove promene,
11:50
that we have the ability
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da imamo sposobnosti
11:52
to now move into a new innovative,
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da se sada pokrenemo ka novoj,
11:55
a transformative gear,
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inovativnoj transformaciji,
11:57
across scales.
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preko različitih nivoa.
11:59
The drama is, of course,
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Problem je, naravno, u tome
12:01
is that 200 countries on this planet
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što 200 zemalja na ovoj planeti
12:03
have to simultaneously start moving
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treba istovremeno da se pokrene
12:05
in the same direction.
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u istom smeru.
12:07
But it changes fundamentally our governance and management paradigm,
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Ali to fundamentalno menja našu direkciju i upravljanje modelom,
12:10
from the current linear,
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od sadašnje, linearne,
12:12
command and control thinking,
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dominacije i kontrole mišljenja,
12:14
looking at efficiencies and optimization
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tragajući za efikasnošću i optimizacijom
12:16
towards a much more flexible,
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ka fleksibilnijem
12:19
a much more adaptive approach,
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i prilagodljivijem pristupu,
12:21
where we recognize that redundancy,
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gde prepoznajemo da je višak
12:23
both in social and environmental systems,
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u socijalnim i ambijentalnim sistemima,
12:25
is key to be able to deal
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ključ da se izborimo
12:27
with a turbulent era of global change.
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sa turbulentnim razdobljem globalne promene.
12:30
We have to invest in persistence,
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Moramo da uložimo u doslednost,
12:32
in the ability of social systems and ecological systems
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u sposobnost socijalnih i ekoloških sistema
12:35
to withstand shocks and still remain in that desired cup.
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da bismo izdržali napade i ostali u toj željenoj kupi.
12:38
We have to invest in transformations capability,
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Moramo da investiramo u sposobnost transformacije,
12:41
moving from crisis into innovation
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pomerajući se od krize ka inovaciji
12:44
and the ability to rise after a crisis,
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i sposobnosti za oporavljanje posle krize,
12:47
and of course to adapt to unavoidable change.
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i naravno da se prilagodimo neizbežnim promenama.
12:49
This is a new paradigm.
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Ovo je novi model.
12:51
We're not doing that at any scale on governance.
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Ne radimo ovo na bilo kojem nivou uprave.
12:54
But is it happening anywhere?
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Ali, da li je situacija svuda ista?
12:56
Do we have any examples of success
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Da li imamo bilo kakve primere uspeha
12:58
on this mind shift being applied at the local level?
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u promeni razmišljanja koji su primenjeni na lokalnom nivou?
13:01
Well, yes, in fact we do
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Pa, da, zapravo imamo,
13:04
and the list can start becoming longer and longer.
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a lista može početi da biva sve duža i duža.
13:06
There's good news here,
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Postoje dobre vesti,
13:08
for example, from Latin America,
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na primer, iz Latinske Amerike,
13:10
where plow-based farming systems
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gde su farme, obrađivane plugom,
13:13
of the '50s and '60s
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iz 50-ih i 60-ih,
13:15
led farming basically to a dead-end,
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vodile poljoprivredu u ćorsokak,
13:17
with lower and lower yields, degrading the organic matter
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sa sve manjom dobiti, degradirajući organsku materiju
13:20
and fundamental problems at the livelihood levels
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i osnovne probleme izdržavanja
13:23
in Paraguay, Uruguay and a number of countries, Brazil,
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u Paragvaju, Urugvaju i brojnim zemljama, Brazilu,
13:26
leading to innovation and entrepreneurship
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vodeći ka inovaciji i preduzetništvu
13:28
among farmers in partnership with scientists
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između farmera u partnerstvu sa naučnicima,
13:30
into an agricultural revolution of zero tillage systems
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do poljoprivredne revolucije sistema bez oranja
13:33
combined with mulch farming
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koja kombinovanog sa zagrtanjem biljaka
13:35
with locally adapted technologies,
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i sa lokalno prilagođenim tehnologijama
13:37
which today, for example, in some countries,
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koje su danas na primer, u nekim zemljama,
13:40
have led to a tremendous increase
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dovele do golemog povećanja;
13:42
in area under mulch, zero till farming
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sve to u oblasti zagrtanja biljaka i bez oranja
13:45
which, not only produces more food,
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što, ne samo da proizvodi više hrane,
13:47
but also sequesters carbon.
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nego i izdvaja ugljenik.
13:49
The Australian Great Barrier Reef is another success story.
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Australijski Veliki koralni greben predstavlja još jednu uspešnu priču.
13:52
Under the realization from tourist operators,
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U okviru realizacije od strane turističkih operatera,
13:54
fishermen,
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ribolovaca,
13:56
the Australian Great Barrier Reef Authority and scientists
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vlasti Velikog koralnog grebena i naučnika,
13:59
that the Great Barrier Reef is doomed
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Veliki koralni greben je osuđen na propast
14:01
under the current governance regime.
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pod trenutnim režimom upravljanja.
14:04
Global change, beautification rack culture,
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Globalne promene, kultura iscrpljujućeg ulepšavanja,
14:06
overfishing and unsustainable tourism,
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prekomerni ribolov i neodrživi turizam,
14:08
all together placing this system
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svi zajedno stavljaju ovaj sistem
14:10
in the realization of crisis.
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u položaj realizacije krize.
14:12
But the window of opportunity was innovation and new mindset,
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Ali prostor za mogućnosti su inovacije i nov način razmišljanja,
14:14
which today has led to a completely new governance strategy
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koji je danas doveo do potpuno nove strategije upravljanja
14:17
to build resilience,
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radi izgradnje otpornsti,
14:19
acknowledge redundancy
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viška znanja
14:21
and invest in the whole system as an integrated whole,
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i ulaganja u ceo sistem kao u integrisanu celinu
14:24
and then allow for much more redundancy in the system.
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i omogućavanja mnogo više viška u sistemu.
14:27
Sweden, the country I come from, has other examples,
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Švedska, zemlja iz koje dolazim, ima druge primere,
14:30
where wetlands in southern Sweden were seen as --
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gde su močvare na jugu Švedske prepoznate --
14:33
as in many countries -- as flood-prone polluted nuisance
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kao i u mnogim državama -- kao poplavljena, zagađena neprijatnost
14:36
in the peri-urban regions.
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u prigradskim oblastima.
14:38
But again, a crisis, new partnerships,
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Ali opet, krize, nova partnerstva,
14:41
actors locally, transforming these
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lokalni akteri, pretvaraju to
14:43
into a key component
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u ključnu komponentu
14:45
of sustainable urban planning.
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održivog, urbanog planiranja.
14:47
So crisis leading into opportunities.
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Tako da kriza vodi u nove mogućnosti.
14:51
Now, what about the future?
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A šta sa budućnošću?
14:53
Well, the future, of course, has one massive challenge,
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Pa, budućnost, naravno, ima jedan ogroman izazov,
14:56
which is feeding a world of nine billion people.
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koji snabdeva svet od devet milijardi ljudi.
14:58
We need nothing less than a new green revolution,
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Ne treba nam ništa manje od nove zelene revolucije,
15:00
and the planet boundaries shows
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a granice planete pokazuju da poljoprivreda
15:02
that agriculture has to go from a source of greenhouse gases to a sink.
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mora da se promeni od izvora do slivnika štetnih gasova.
15:05
It has to basically do this on current land.
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To mora da se desi na postojećoj zemlji.
15:08
We cannot expand anymore,
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Ne možemo se više širiti,
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because it erodes the planetary boundaries.
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jer to uništava planetarne granice.
15:12
We cannot continue consuming water as we do today,
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Ne možemo nastaviti da konzumiramo vodu kao što to činimo danas,
15:15
with 25 percent of world rivers not even reaching the ocean.
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sa 25 procenata svetskih reka koje čak ni ne stignu do okeana.
15:18
And we need a transformation.
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Potrebna nam je transformacija.
15:20
Well, interestingly, and based on my work
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Zanimljivo, i zasnovano na mom radu
15:22
and others in Africa, for example,
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i ostalima u Africi, na primer, pokazali smo da
15:24
we've shown that even the most vulnerable small-scale rainfall farming systems,
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čak i sa malim sistemima poljoprivrednog uzgoja, ugroženih sušom,
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with innovations and supplementary irrigation
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sa inovacijama i dodatnim navodnjavanjem
15:29
to bridge dry spells and droughts,
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radi premošćavanja sušnog perioda,
15:31
sustainable sanitation systems to close the loop on nutrients
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kao i održivim sanitarijama za ponovno vraćanje hranljivih materija
15:34
from toilets back to farmers' fields,
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iz klozetskih šolja nazad na polja farmera
15:37
and innovations in tillage systems,
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i inovacijama u sistemima obrade zemlje,
15:39
we can triple, quadruple, yield levels
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možemo utrostručiti, učetvorostručiti prinose
15:41
on current land.
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na nivou sadašnjeg zemljišta.
15:43
Elinor Ostrom,
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Elinor Ostrom,
15:45
the latest Nobel laureate of economics,
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najnoviji dobitnik Nobelove nagrade za ekonomiju,
15:47
clearly shows empirically across the world
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jasno pokazuje, empirijski, širom sveta,
15:49
that we can govern the commons
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da možemo rukovoditi društvenim dobrom
15:51
if we invest in trust,
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ukoliko investiramo u poverenje,
15:54
local, action-based partnerships
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lokalna partnerstva zasnovana na aktivnostima
15:57
and cross-scale institutional innovations,
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i institucionalne inovacije,
16:01
where local actors,
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gde se lokalni akteri, zajedno,
16:04
together, can deal with the global commons
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mogu izboriti sa globalnim društvenim dobrima
16:06
at a large scale.
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u velikoj razmeri.
16:08
But even on the hard policy area we have innovations.
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Ali čak i u oblasti teške politike mi imamo inovacije.
16:11
We know that we have to move from our fossil dependence
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Znamo da se moramo odmaći od zavisnosti od fosilnih goriva
16:13
very quickly into a low-carbon economy in record time.
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vrlo brzo ka ekonomiji niske emisije i to u rekordnom vremenu.
16:16
And what shall we do?
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I šta ćemo da radimo?
16:18
Everybody talks about carbon taxes -- it won't work -- emission schemes,
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Svi govore o porezu na ugljenik -- to neće funkcionisati -- planovi emisije,
16:21
but for example, one policy measure,
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ali na primer, jedna politička mera,
16:23
feed-in tariffs on the energy system,
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tarifa o energetskom sistemu,
16:25
which is already applied,
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koja je već primenjena,
16:27
from China doing it on offshore wind systems,
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u Kini to rade pomoću vetrenjača postavljenih u moru,
16:29
all the way to the U.S.
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sve do SAD-a gde dobijate
16:31
where you give the guaranteed price for investment in renewable energy,
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garantovanu cenu za investiranje u obnovljive izvore energije,
16:33
but you can subsidize electricity to poor people.
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ali možete subvencionisati struju siromašnima.
16:36
You get people out of poverty.
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Vi vadite ljude iz siromaštva.
16:38
You solve the climate issue with regards to the energy sector,
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Rešavate klimatske probleme sa osvrtom na energestski sektor,
16:40
while at the same time, stimulating innovation --
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dok istovremeno, stimulišete inovaciju --
16:43
examples of things that can be out scaled quickly
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primeri stvari koje se brzo mogu prilagoditi
16:45
at the planetary level.
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planetarnom nivou.
16:47
So there is -- no doubt -- opportunity here,
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Tako da ovde -- nema sumnje -- postoji prilika,
16:49
and we can list many, many examples
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i možemo navesti mnogo, mnogo primera
16:52
of transformative opportunities around the planet.
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transformativnih prilika širom planete.
16:55
The key though in all of these,
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Ključ u svemu ovome,
16:57
the red thread,
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crvena nit,
16:59
is the shift in mindset,
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je pomak u načinu razmišljanja,
17:01
moving away from a situation where we simply are pushing ourselves
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udaljavanje od situacije gde prosto guramo sebe
17:04
into a dark future,
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u mračnu budućnost,
17:06
where we instead backcast our future,
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gde umesto da obrnemo našu budućnost,
17:08
and we say, "What is the playing field on the planet?
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mi kažemo, "Šta je teren na planeti?
17:11
What are the planetary boundaries
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Koje su planetarne granice
17:13
within which we can safely operate?"
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u okviru kojih funkcionišemo bezbedno?"
17:15
and then backtrack innovations within that.
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Te se onda vratimo na inovacije u okviru toga.
17:17
But of course, the drama is, it clearly shows
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Ali naravno, nevolja je, što se jasno pokazuje
17:19
that incremental change is not an option.
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da inkrementalna promena nije opcija.
17:22
So, there is scientific evidence.
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Postoji naučni dokaz.
17:24
They sort of say the harsh news,
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Oni kažu da je neka vrsta surove vesti,
17:26
that we are facing the largest
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da se suočavamo sa najvećim
17:28
transformative development
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transformativnim razvojem
17:30
since the industrialization.
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još od industrijalizacije.
17:32
In fact, what we have to do over the next 40 years
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Zapravo, ono što treba da radimo sledećih 40 godina
17:34
is much more dramatic and more exciting
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je mnogo dramatičnije i uzbudljivije
17:37
than what we did when we moved into
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od onoga što smo radili kad smo se našli
17:40
the situation we're in today.
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u situaciji u kojoj smo danas.
17:42
Now, science indicates that,
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Nauka nagoveštava da
17:44
yes, we can achieve a prosperous future
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možemo postići naprednu budućnost
17:46
within the safe operating space,
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u okviru bezbednog prostora za funkconisanje,
17:48
if we move simultaneously,
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ako krenemo istvoremeno,
17:50
collaborating on a global level, from local to global scale,
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sarađujući na globalnom nivou, od lokalnih do globalnih razmera,
17:53
in transformative options, which build resilience on a finite planet.
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u promenljivim opcijama, koje grade otpornost na konačnoj planeti.
17:56
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
17:58
(Applause)
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Aplauz
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Johan Rockstrom - Sustainability expertJohan Rockström works to redefine sustainable development, and figure out what needs to happen.
Why you should listen
Johan Rockström leads the Stockholm Resilience Centre, focusing on a new approach to sustainability: the capacity to use change and crisis to spur renewal and innovative thinking. In 2009, working with an international team of scientists, he identified and quantified a set of nine planetary boundaries within which humanity can continue to develop and thrive for generations to come -- while crossing them could generate abrupt or irreversible environmental changes.
Since then, the boundaries research has spread among international organizations, governments, NGOs and companies and has been adopted as a new framework to guide the discussion about "sustainable growth". It is currently debated as a core part of setting the criteria that will follow the UN's Millennium Development Goals. Rockström also chairs Future Earth, an initiative to advance integrated science for global sustainability.
Johan Rockstrom | Speaker | TED.com