TEDGlobal 2010
Johan Rockström: Let the environment guide our development
约翰·罗克斯特伦Johan Rockstrom：让环境引导我们的发展
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人类发展已经造成地球资源的紧张，但是约翰·罗克斯特伦提醒我们，人类科学技术进步也使我们认识到这一切，并随之改变这种行为。他的研究发现了9大“地球界限”通过这个发现可以指引我们保护地球上息息相关的众多生态系统｡
Johan Rockstrom - Sustainability expert
Johan Rockström works to redefine sustainable development, and figure out what needs to happen. Full bio
Johan Rockström works to redefine sustainable development, and figure out what needs to happen. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
We live on a human-dominated planet,
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我们生活在一个由人类支配的星球上,
00:18
putting unprecedented pressure
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我们将前所未有的压力
00:20
on the systems on Earth.
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压在地球的整个系统上｡
00:22
This is bad news, but perhaps surprising to you,
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这有一个坏消息,但也许会让你吃惊，
00:24
it's also part of the good news.
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这也算是一个好消息｡
00:26
We're the first generation -- thanks to science --
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感谢科技进步,我们是第一代
00:29
to be informed that we may be
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知晓我们可能
00:31
undermining the stability and the ability
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正在侵蚀着地球的
00:33
of planet Earth
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稳定性和功能性
00:35
to support human development as we know it.
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来维系人类自身发展。
00:37
It's also good news, because the planetary risks we're facing
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还有一个好消息，因为我们面临的风险
00:40
are so large,
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如此之大，
00:42
that business as usual is not an option.
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以前的办法已经没有用了。
00:44
In fact, we're in a phase
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实际上，我们处在新的阶段
00:46
where transformative change is necessary,
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必须采取变革的阶段，
00:49
which opens the window for innovation,
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为创新得打开一扇窗，
00:51
for new ideas and new paradigms.
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迎接新想法和新模式。
00:54
This is a scientific journey on the challenges facing humanity
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这是一次人类
00:57
in the global phase of sustainability.
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关于全球可持续发展面临挑战的科学之旅。
00:59
On this journey, I'd like to bring, apart from yourselves,
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在这趟旅途中，除了你们，我希望带上
01:02
a good friend,
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一个好朋友，
01:04
a stakeholder, who's always absent
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一位利益相关者但常常被忽视，
01:06
when we deal with the negotiations on environmental issues,
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当我们处理沟通环境问题时，
01:08
a stakeholder who refuses to compromise --
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一个拒绝妥协的利益相关者
01:11
planet Earth.
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它就是一颗叫做地球的星球。
01:13
So I thought I'd bring her with me today on stage,
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我原本想把她带上舞台，
01:16
to have her as a witness
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让她亲眼目睹
01:18
of a remarkable journey,
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这非凡的旅途，
01:21
which humbly reminds us
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同时谨提醒我们
01:23
of the period of grace we've had
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在过去1万年我们所经历过的恩泽
01:25
over the past 10,000 years.
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时代。
01:27
This is the living conditions on the planet over the last 100,000 years.
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这是一个持续了十万年的生机勃勃的星球。
01:30
It's a very important period --
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这是一个非常重要的时期。
01:32
it's roughly half the period when we've been fully modern humans on the planet.
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这几乎持续了我们进化成为现代人类一半的时间。
01:35
We've had the same, roughly, abilities
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我们也大致拥有同样能力来创造
01:37
that developed civilizations as we know it.
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如大家所知发展了文明。
01:39
This is the environmental conditions on the planet.
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这是目前星球的状况。
01:41
Here, used as a proxy, temperature variability.
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在这我们用温度变化作为一个参考物。
01:44
It was a jumpy ride. 80,000 years back in a crisis,
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上下波动很大。这是八万年前的危机，
01:47
we leave Africa, we colonize Australia
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我们离开非洲，我们殖民澳洲是
01:49
in another crisis, 60,000 years back,
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在六万年后的另一次危机中，
01:51
we leave Asia for Europe
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我们从亚洲来到欧洲是
01:53
in another crisis, 40,000 years back,
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在四万年前的危机中，
01:55
and then we enter
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我们在那时进入了
01:57
the remarkably stable Holocene phase,
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相当稳定的全新时代，
02:00
the only period in the whole history of the planet,
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也是地球史上前所未有的时代，
02:03
that we know of, that can support human development.
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我们知道，可以维系人类发展的时代。
02:05
A thousand years into this period,
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在这1千年发展中，
02:07
we abandon our hunting and gathering patterns.
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我们放弃了狩猎采集的模式。
02:10
We go from a couple of million people
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我们从几千万人口
02:12
to the seven billion people we are today.
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发展到如今的70亿人口，
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The Mesopotamian culture: we invent agriculture,
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美索不达米亚文化：那时我们发明了农业，
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we domesticate animals and plants.
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我们驯化动物和植物。
02:18
You have the Roman, the Greek and the story as you know it.
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然后是罗马文明，希腊文明等等众所周知的文明。
02:21
The only phase, as we know it
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我们目前知道地球是唯一
02:23
that can support humanity.
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适合人类生存发展文明的地方。
02:25
The trouble is we're putting a quadruple sqeeze
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麻烦的是在这个可怜的星球，
02:27
on this poor planet,
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我们四面楚歌，
02:29
a quadruple sqeeze, which, as its first squeeze,
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这第一面，
02:32
has population growth of course.
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当然是人口增长。
02:35
Now, this is not only about numbers;
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现在不仅是数字上的增长。
02:37
this is not only about the fact that we're seven billion people
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不只是70亿到90亿人口这个事实，
02:39
committed to nine billion people, it's an equity issue as well.
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还涉及到一个公平性的问题。
02:42
The majority of the environmental impacts on the planet
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对地球环境产生很大影响的
02:44
have been caused by the rich minority,
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往往是富裕的少数人，
02:46
the 20 percent that jumped onto the industrial bandwagon
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在18世纪的中期，
02:48
in the mid-18th century.
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百分之二十的人投身于工业革命中。
02:50
The majority of the planet,
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这星球的大多数国家
02:52
aspiring for development, having the right for development,
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渴望发展，有权发展，
02:54
are in large aspiring for an unsustainable lifestyle,
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但这些国家大多在追求一种地球无法承受的生活方式，
02:57
a momentous pressure.
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这是一种巨大的压力。
02:59
The second pressure on the planet is, of course the climate agenda --
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给地球的第二个压力，当然是气候议程，
03:01
the big issue -- where the policy interpretation of science
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一个大议题，往往科学影响着政策
03:03
is that it would be enough
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有观点认为
03:05
to stabilize greenhouse gases at 450 ppm
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将温室气体含量稳定在450ppm
03:08
to avoid average temperatures
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从而避免温度
03:10
exceeding two degrees,
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升高超过2度，
03:12
to avoid the risk that we may be destabilizing
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避免我们失去
03:14
the West Antarctic Ice Sheet,
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南极西部的冰盖层融化，
03:16
holding six meters -- level rising,
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水平面将升高6米的风险，
03:18
the risk of destabilizing the Greenland Ice Sheet,
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避免格陵兰冰盖融化的风险，
03:20
holding another seven meters -- sea level rising.
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这会造成海平面再上升7米。
03:22
Now, you would have wished the climate pressure
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现在，你们会指望
03:24
to hit a strong planet, a resilient planet,
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这个强大的，能承受强压力的星球来抵御气候压力，
03:26
but unfortunately, the third pressure
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但是，不幸的是，还有第三种压力
03:28
is the ecosystem decline.
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是生态系统的衰落。
03:30
Never have we seen, in the past 50 years,
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在过去50年中，我们从没有见过
03:32
such a sharp decline
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生态系统在这颗星球上的作用和影响
03:34
of ecosystem functions and services on the planet,
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如此急剧的衰落，
03:37
one of them being the ability to regulate climate on the long term,
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他们当中有种能力是长期调整
03:40
in our forests, land and biodiversity.
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影响森林，土地和生物多样性的气候。
03:43
The forth pressure is surprise,
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第四种压力是不同性，
03:45
the notion and the evidence
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概念和证据
03:47
that we need to abandon our old paradigm,
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那就是我们必须放弃我们老套的模式，
03:49
that ecosystems behave linearly, predictably,
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那就是可以这么说，在我们线性系统旧模式中，生态系统表现是线性的，是可以预见的，
03:52
controllably in our -- so to say -- linear systems,
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是可控制的，
03:55
and that in fact, surprise is universal,
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那就是，实际上，不同性就是共同性，
03:57
as systems tip over very rapidly, abruptly
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随着系统迅速地，突然地
03:59
and often irreversibly.
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往往也是不可逆转的破坏。
04:01
This, dear friends, poses a human pressure on the planet
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亲爱的朋友们，这是对地球大规模地
04:04
of momentous scale.
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施加压力。
04:07
We may, in fact, have entered a new geological era --
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我们可能，实际上，已经进入了一个新的地质时代，
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the Anthropocene,
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人类世，
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where humans are the predominant driver of change
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指的是人类是在行星级别中造成变化
04:14
at a planetary level.
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的主要驱动。
04:16
Now, as a scientist,
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现在，作为一名科学家，
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what's the evidence for this?
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有什么证据呢？
04:20
Well, the evidence is,
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证据是，
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unfortunately, ample.
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不幸的是，太多了。
04:24
It's not only carbon dioxide
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不仅仅是二氧化碳
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that has this hockey stick pattern of accelerated change.
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极大地加速了变化的进程。
04:29
You can take virtually any parameter
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你几乎可以把任何参数
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that matters for human well-being --
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跟人类相关的任何参数--
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nitrous oxide, methane,
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一氧化二氮，甲烷，
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deforestation, overfishing
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砍伐森林，过度捕捞，
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land degredation, loss of species --
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土地退化，物种的灭绝--
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they all show the same pattern
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它们都证明了过去的200年中
04:42
over the past 200 years.
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同一种模式。
04:45
Simultaneously, they branch off in the mid-50s,
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与此同时，在50年代中期，
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10 years after the Second World War,
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第二次世界大战后的10年，
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showing very clearly that the great acceleration of the human enterprise
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非常清楚的证明了在50年代中期伟大的人类事业
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starts in the mid-50s.
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开始加速提高。
04:56
You see, for the first time, an imprint on the global level.
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你看，第一次，在全球范围内的一个印记。
04:59
And I can tell you,
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我可以告诉你，
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you enter the disciplinary research in each of these,
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当你开始研究这每一个学科，
05:03
you find something remarkably important,
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你会发现一些非常重要的东西，
05:06
the conclusion that we may have come to the point
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结果是我们可能已经到达了
05:09
where we have to bend the curves,
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必须改变曲线走向程度，
05:11
that we may have entered the most challenging and exciting decade
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在地球上整个人类的历史中，我们可能已经进入了
05:14
in the history humanity on the planet,
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最富有挑战性和刺激性的时代,
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the decade when we have to bend the curves.
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一个我们必须改变曲线走向的时代。
05:20
Now, as if this was not enough --
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现在，仿佛这还不够--
05:22
to just bend the curves and understanding the accelerated pressure on the planet --
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仅仅是改变曲线走向和了解到这颗星球上的急剧增加的压力--
05:25
we also have to recognize the fact
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我们也要意识到一个事实
05:27
that systems do have multiple stable states,
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那就是系统有多种稳定状态，
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separated by thresholds -- illustrated here by this ball and cup diagram,
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在曲线上由一个个槛区分开来--我在这个用球杯图来表示，
05:33
where the depth of the cup is the resilience of the system.
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杯子的深度代表了系统的适应能力。
05:36
Now, the system may gradually --
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现在，系统逐渐地--
05:39
under pressure of climate change,
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受到气候变化，
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erosion, biodiversity loss --
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侵蚀，生物多样性丧失的压力--
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lose the depth of the cup, the resilience,
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于是杯子的深度开始减少，也就是系统适应能力降低，
05:45
but appear to be healthy
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但似乎是健康的
05:47
and appear to suddenly, under a threshold,
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也似乎是突然间，经过一个槛后，
05:49
be tipping over. Upff.
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又跌落到某一界限下了。哦。
05:51
Sorry. Changing state
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抱歉。改变了原有状态
05:54
and literally ending up
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确实滑落到
05:56
in an undesired situation,
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一个出乎意料的状态，
06:00
where new biophysical logic takes over,
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从那里开始，新的生物物理逻辑开始运作，
06:03
new species take over, and the system gets locked.
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新的物种开始出现，系统再次平衡。
06:05
Do we have evidence of this? Yes, coral reef systems.
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我们有证据吗？是的，珊瑚礁系统。
06:09
Biodiverse, low-nutrient, hard coral systems
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生物的多样，低养份，硬珊瑚系统
06:12
under multiple pressures of overfishing,
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在过渡捕捞，
06:15
unsustainable tourism, climate change.
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不可持续的旅游业，气候变化等多重压力下。
06:17
A trigger and the system tips over,
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系统的崩溃一触即发，
06:19
loses its resilience,
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失去了它的适应能力，
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soft corals take over,
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从而软珊瑚取而代之，
06:23
and we get undesired systems
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留给我们一个我们出乎意料的系统
06:25
that cannot support economic and social development.
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一个不能维系经济和社会发展的系统。
06:27
The Arctic -- a beautiful system --
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北极，一个美丽的生态系统，
06:29
a regulating biome at the planetary level,
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我们地球上一个有调节作用的生物群落
06:31
taking the knock after knock on climate change,
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受到气候变化的一次次冲击，
06:34
appearing to be in a good state.
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看上去似乎还可以。
06:36
No scientist could predict that in 2007,
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没有科学家能够预测在2007年
06:38
suddenly, what could be crossing a threshold.
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突然间，有什么能够跨越这个界限槛。
06:41
The system suddenly, very surprisingly, loses 30 to 40 percent
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生态系统突然间，非常出人意料地，失去了百分之三十到四十
06:43
of its summer ice cover.
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的夏季冰覆盖率。
06:45
And the drama is, of course, that
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当然，具有戏剧效果的是，
06:47
when the system does this, the logic may change.
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当生态系统发生了变化，其中的逻辑也跟着变化。
06:49
It may get locked in an undesired state,
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这可能锁定了一种不希望的状态，
06:51
because it changes color, absorbs more energy,
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因为它改变了颜色，吸收了更多的能量，
06:53
and the system may get stuck.
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系统可能陷入困境。
06:55
In my mind, the largest red flag warning for humanity
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我认为，对于人类来说最大的一面红旗警示是
06:58
that we are in a precarious situation.
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我们处在一个岌岌可危的时期。
07:01
As a sideline, you know that the only red flag that popped up here
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顺便说一下，你知道在那里的唯一一个红色旗
07:04
was a submarine from an unnamed country
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是一架从一个不知名国家来的潜水艇
07:06
that planted a red flag at the bottom of the Arctic
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在北极底部插上一面红旗
07:09
to be able to control the oil resources.
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从而得以控制石油资源。
07:12
Now, if we have evidence, which we now have,
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现在，如果我们有证据，我们现在有了，
07:15
that wetlands, forests,
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湿地，森林，
07:17
[unclear] monsoon system, the rainforests,
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热带雨林，
07:19
behave in this nonlinear way.
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不是按照线性方式运作。
07:21
30 or so scientists around the world
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全世界大约有30名科学家
07:23
gathered and asked a question for the first time,
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聚在一起，第一次问了一个问题，
07:25
"Do we have to put the planet into the the pot?"
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“我们要把这星球陷入困境吗？”
07:27
So we have to ask ourselves:
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所以，我们必须问自己：
07:29
are we threatening this extraordinarily stable Holocene state?
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我们正在威胁这个非常稳定的全新世界吗？
07:33
Are we in fact putting ourselves in a situation
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我们真的要将我们自己置于一个困境？
07:35
where we're coming too close
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我们即将接近
07:37
to thresholds that could lead
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下一个界限而可能引向
07:39
to deleterious and very undesired,
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有害的，
07:41
if now catastrophic, change
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我们极不希望看到的，好比现在灾难性的
07:43
for human development?
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为人类发展而做的改变。
07:45
You know, you don't want to stand there.
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要知道，你并不希望站在那里。
07:47
In fact, you're not even allowed to stand
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实际上，根本不允许你站在那里
07:49
where this gentleman is standing,
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那是这位绅士站着的地方，
07:51
at the foaming, slippery waters at the threshold.
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在那个槛，湿滑的水冒着泡。
07:54
In fact, there's a fence
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实际上，在这个界限的高处
07:56
quite upstream of this threshold,
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有个护栏，
07:58
beyond which you are in a danger zone.
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在危险区之上。
08:00
And this is the new paradigm,
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这是个新的模式，
08:02
which we gathered two, three years back,
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根据我们过去的两、三年收集的信息，
08:04
recognizing that our old paradigm
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我们发现我们旧的模式
08:06
of just analyzing and pushing and predicting
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仅仅是分析、引用和预测
08:08
parameters into the future,
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影响未来的参数，
08:10
aiming at minimalizing environmental impacts, is of the past.
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目标是减小环境的冲击，那是过去式。
08:13
Now we to ask ourselves:
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现在，我们问我们自己：
08:15
which are the large environmental processes
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哪个是最大的环境进程
08:17
that we have to be stewards of
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我们必须要管的
08:19
to keep ourselves safe in the Holocene?
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以保证我们自己在全新世的安全？
08:21
And could we even,
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我们甚至可以
08:23
thanks to major advancements in Earth systems science,
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感谢地球系统科学的重大发展，
08:25
identify the thresholds,
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发现这些一个个槛，
08:27
the points where we may expect nonlinear change?
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我们所期望的非线性变化的界限点？
08:30
And could we even define
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我们甚至能定义
08:32
a planetary boundary, a fence,
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地球界限，一个护栏，
08:35
within which we then have a safe operating space for humanity?
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通过这些，我们人类就可以有个安全的工作空间吗？
08:38
This work, which was published in "Nature,"
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在2009年底，“自然”杂志上发表的这个项目
08:40
late 2009,
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，
08:42
after a number of years of analysis,
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经过数年的分析，
08:44
led to the final proposition
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终于得出最后的提议，
08:47
that we can only find
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那就是我们只能够找到
08:49
nine planetary boundaries
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九个地球界限
08:51
with which, under active stewardship,
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在积极领导下，
08:54
would allow ourselves to have a safe operating space.
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可能允许我们自己有个安全的工作空间。
08:57
These include, of course, climate.
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这包括了，当然的，气候。
08:59
It may surprise you that it's not only climate.
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你可能觉得惊奇，不仅仅是气候。
09:01
But it shows that we are interconnected, among many systems on the planet,
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但是，它告诉了我们，我们是同这个星球上众多的生态系统息息相关的，
09:04
with the three big systems, climate change,
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特别是其中的三大系统，气候变化，
09:06
stratospheric ozone depletion and ocean acidification
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臭氧层的削弱和海洋酸化
09:09
being the three big systems,
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是这三大系统，
09:11
where the scientific evidence of large-scale thresholds
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从古地球的历史记录里已经有
09:14
in the paleo-record of the history of the planet.
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大量的科学证据。
09:17
But we also include, what we call, the slow variables,
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但是，我们也包括，我们所谓的，慢性变量，
09:20
the systems that, under the hood,
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这些系统，在表面下，
09:22
regulate and buffer the capacity of the resilience of the planet --
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调节和缓冲着地球的适应能力--
09:25
the interference of the big nitrogen and phosphorus cycles on the planet,
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地球上氮磷大循环的干扰，
09:28
land use change, rate of biodiversity loss,
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土地使用的变更，物种多样性的降低率
09:30
freshwater use,
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淡水的使用，
09:32
functions which regulate
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有调节
09:35
biomass on the planet, carbon sequestration, diversity.
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地球上的生物量，碳汇，多样性的作用。
09:38
And then we have two parameters which we were not able to quantify --
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还有两个我们无法量化的参数--
09:41
air pollution,
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空气污染，
09:43
including warming gases and air-polluting sulfates and nitrates,
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包括温室气体和空气污染的硫酸盐和硝酸盐，
09:46
but also chemical pollution.
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以及化学污染。
09:49
Together, these form an integrated whole
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加在一起，这些综合成
09:52
for guiding human development in the Anthropocene,
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在人类世指导人类发展，
09:54
understanding that the planet
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理解地球上的
09:56
is a complex self-regulating system.
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复杂的自我调节系统。
09:59
In fact, most evidence indicates
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事实是，大多数证据指出
10:01
that these nine may behave as three Musketeers,
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这九大界限或许像三剑客一样--
10:04
"One for all. All for one."
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“我为人人，人人为我。”
10:06
You degrade forests, you go beyond the boundary on land,
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人们滥伐森林，人们超越了土地的界限，
10:09
you undermine the ability of the climate system
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人们破坏了气候系统保持稳定
10:11
to stay stable.
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的能力。
10:13
The drama here is, in fact, that
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有戏剧效果的是，实际上，
10:15
it may show that the climate challenge
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气候的挑战
10:17
is the easy one,
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可能是很简单的，
10:19
if you consider the whole challenge
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如果你考虑可持续发展的
10:21
of sustainable development.
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整体性的挑战。
10:24
Now this is the Big Bang equivalent then of human development
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现在，这个对于人类发展来说等同于大爆炸
10:27
within the safe operating space of the planetary boundaries.
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在地球界限内的安全工作空间。
10:29
What you see here in black line is the safe operating space,
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按照这一分析所建议的，你看到的这条黑线是安全工作空间，
10:32
the quantified boundaries,
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量化了的界限
10:34
as suggested by this analysis.
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。
10:36
The yellow dot in the middle here is our starting point,
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在中间的黄点是我们的开始点，
10:38
the pre-industrial point,
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前工业化点，
10:40
where we're very safely in the safe operating space.
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我们在安全工作空间里非常地安全。
10:42
In the '50s, we start branching out.
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50年代，我们开始发散。
10:45
In the '60s already, through the green revolution
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60年代通过绿色革命
10:47
and the Haber-Bosch process
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和固定大气中的氮
10:49
of fixing nitrogen from the atmosphere --
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的哈柏法--
10:51
you know, human's today take out more nitrogen from the atmosphere
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你知道，人类今天从大气中提取氮的含量
10:54
than the whole biosphere does naturally as a whole.
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远远大于整个生物圈在自然情况下所提取的。
10:58
We don't transgress the climate boundary until the early '90s,
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我们没有越过气候界限直到90年代早期，
11:01
actually, right after Rio.
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实际上，是在里约热内卢召开的地球峰会之后。
11:03
And today, we are in a situation where we estimate
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今天，我们的处境是我们估计
11:05
that we've transgressed three boundaries,
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我们已经越过三个界限，
11:07
the rate of biodiversity loss,
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物种多样性的降低率，
11:09
which is the sixth extinction period in the history of humanity --
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这是在人类历史上的第六个灭绝时期--
11:12
one of them being the extinctions of the dinosaurs --
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其中的一个是恐龙灭绝--
11:15
nitrogen and climate change.
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氮气和气候变化。
11:17
But we still have some degrees of freedom on the others,
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但是，我们在其它界限上还有些空间，
11:19
but we are approaching fast
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但是我们接近土地
11:21
on land, water, phosphorus and oceans.
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水源，磷和海洋的速度实在是太快了。
11:23
But this gives a new paradigm
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但这给了我们一个新的模式
11:25
to guide humanity,
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来指导人类，
11:27
to put the light on our, so far
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为我们运转过度的工业引擎
11:30
overpowered industrial vehicle,
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开启一个新曙光，
11:32
which operates as if
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我们原先仅仅是行驶在一条
11:34
we're only on a dark, straight highway.
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黑暗笔直的公路上。
11:37
Now the question then is:
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现在的问题是：
11:39
how gloomy is this?
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有多黑暗？
11:41
Is then sustainable development utopia?
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可持续发展会成为乌托邦么？
11:43
Well, there's no science to suggest.
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没有科学能够给与答案。
11:45
In fact, there is ample science
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实际上，大量的科学
11:47
to indicate that we can do this transformative change,
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表明我们能够完成这次变革，
11:50
that we have the ability
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我们有能力
11:52
to now move into a new innovative,
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进入一个新的，创新性的，
11:55
a transformative gear,
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转型的，跨尺度的，
11:57
across scales.
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新时期。
11:59
The drama is, of course,
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当然，有戏剧效果的是，
12:01
is that 200 countries on this planet
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地球上的200多个国家
12:03
have to simultaneously start moving
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都同时朝着同一个方向
12:05
in the same direction.
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开始绿色行动。
12:07
But it changes fundamentally our governance and management paradigm,
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但是这从根本上改变了我们政府和管理的模式，
12:10
from the current linear,
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从现在的线性模式，
12:12
command and control thinking,
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命令和控制性的思考，
12:14
looking at efficiencies and optimization
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关注有效性和优化性
12:16
towards a much more flexible,
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朝着一个更加灵活的，
12:19
a much more adaptive approach,
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一个更加能适应的模式，
12:21
where we recognize that redundancy,
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我们意识到无论社会和环境体系中的
12:23
both in social and environmental systems,
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繁冗，
12:25
is key to be able to deal
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都是能够顺应
12:27
with a turbulent era of global change.
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瞬息万变的全球化改变的关键。
12:30
We have to invest in persistence,
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我们要在持续性上投资，
12:32
in the ability of social systems and ecological systems
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在社交系统和生态系统
12:35
to withstand shocks and still remain in that desired cup.
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能够承受巨大变动，仍然保持我们所希望的适应力曲线。
12:38
We have to invest in transformations capability,
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我们要在改革能力上投资，
12:41
moving from crisis into innovation
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将危机化为创新，
12:44
and the ability to rise after a crisis,
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在危机后再次崛起的能力，
12:47
and of course to adapt to unavoidable change.
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当然还有适应不可避免的变化的能力。
12:49
This is a new paradigm.
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这是一个新的模式。
12:51
We're not doing that at any scale on governance.
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我们不在任何政府层面上完成。
12:54
But is it happening anywhere?
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那这会发生么？
12:56
Do we have any examples of success
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我们有在地方级别上
12:58
on this mind shift being applied at the local level?
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应用这种思想变革的成功的例子么？
13:01
Well, yes, in fact we do
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有的。实际上我们有，
13:04
and the list can start becoming longer and longer.
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这份成功的名单正在变得更长。
13:06
There's good news here,
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好消息是，
13:08
for example, from Latin America,
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例如，在拉丁美洲，
13:10
where plow-based farming systems
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在那里，50年代和60年代的
13:13
of the '50s and '60s
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以犁耕为基础的农业系统
13:15
led farming basically to a dead-end,
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基本上这样的农业系统是没有出路的，
13:17
with lower and lower yields, degrading the organic matter
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越来越低的产量，降解有机物
13:20
and fundamental problems at the livelihood levels
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和在巴拉圭，乌拉圭和一些国家，巴西
13:23
in Paraguay, Uruguay and a number of countries, Brazil,
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的民生基本问题，
13:26
leading to innovation and entrepreneurship
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这导致农民和科学家们合作
13:28
among farmers in partnership with scientists
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一起创新，
13:30
into an agricultural revolution of zero tillage systems
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进入一个将免耕系统和
13:33
combined with mulch farming
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覆盖耕作的农业革命，
13:35
with locally adapted technologies,
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同时还有适应地方上需要的科技，
13:37
which today, for example, in some countries,
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今天，比如，在一些国家，
13:40
have led to a tremendous increase
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已经在覆盖耕作，免耕区域
13:42
in area under mulch, zero till farming
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取得了巨大的增长，
13:45
which, not only produces more food,
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不仅仅是生产出更多的粮食，
13:47
but also sequesters carbon.
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而且吸收了多余的碳，降低排放。
13:49
The Australian Great Barrier Reef is another success story.
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澳大利亚大堡礁是另一个成功故事。
13:52
Under the realization from tourist operators,
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从旅游经营者，
13:54
fishermen,
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渔夫们，
13:56
the Australian Great Barrier Reef Authority and scientists
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澳大利亚大堡礁管理局和科学家们所意识到的，
13:59
that the Great Barrier Reef is doomed
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在现行的管理制度下，
14:01
under the current governance regime.
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大堡礁注定要灭亡的。
14:04
Global change, beautification rack culture,
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全球变化，美化文化，
14:06
overfishing and unsustainable tourism,
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过度捕捞和不可持续的旅游业，
14:08
all together placing this system
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所有这一切将这个系统
14:10
in the realization of crisis.
355
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陷入危机中。
14:12
But the window of opportunity was innovation and new mindset,
356
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但是创新和新观念带来了机会，
14:14
which today has led to a completely new governance strategy
357
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今天已经完成了新的管理机制
14:17
to build resilience,
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来建立应急能力，
14:19
acknowledge redundancy
359
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认识到繁冗性，
14:21
and invest in the whole system as an integrated whole,
360
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并在综合方面投资整个系统，
14:24
and then allow for much more redundancy in the system.
361
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这样允许生态系统有更多的繁复之处。
14:27
Sweden, the country I come from, has other examples,
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我所来自的国家瑞典，有另外一个例子，
14:30
where wetlands in southern Sweden were seen as --
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在瑞典南部，湿地被看做是
14:33
as in many countries -- as flood-prone polluted nuisance
364
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跟很多国家一样--像洪水污染泛滥一样
14:36
in the peri-urban regions.
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使周围的城市地区厌恶。
14:38
But again, a crisis, new partnerships,
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但是又一次的危机，新的合作，
14:41
actors locally, transforming these
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地方上的执行者们，将这些变成
14:43
into a key component
368
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可持续城市计划的一个
14:45
of sustainable urban planning.
369
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关键组成部分。
14:47
So crisis leading into opportunities.
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危机变成了机会。
14:51
Now, what about the future?
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好，那未来呢？
14:53
Well, the future, of course, has one massive challenge,
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当然，未来是个巨大的挑战，
14:56
which is feeding a world of nine billion people.
373
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要供给全世界90亿人。
14:58
We need nothing less than a new green revolution,
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除了绿色革命我们不需要其它的什么，
15:00
and the planet boundaries shows
375
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地球界限显示
15:02
that agriculture has to go from a source of greenhouse gases to a sink.
376
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农业已经从一个温室气体排放器到接收器。
15:05
It has to basically do this on current land.
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我们现今的土地正发挥这样的作用。
15:08
We cannot expand anymore,
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我们不能再扩张了，
15:10
because it erodes the planetary boundaries.
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因为已经侵蚀到地球界限了。
15:12
We cannot continue consuming water as we do today,
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我们不能再像我们今天这样继续使用水了，
15:15
with 25 percent of world rivers not even reaching the ocean.
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世界上百分之25的河流都无法流向大海。
15:18
And we need a transformation.
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我们需要一个变革。
15:20
Well, interestingly, and based on my work
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有趣的是，根据我的研究
15:22
and others in Africa, for example,
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和其他人在非洲的研究，比如，
15:24
we've shown that even the most vulnerable small-scale rainfall farming systems,
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我们讲了即便是最最宝贵的小型降雨耕作系统，
15:27
with innovations and supplementary irrigation
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有了创新和补充灌溉
15:29
to bridge dry spells and droughts,
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也能解决干旱和旱灾，
15:31
sustainable sanitation systems to close the loop on nutrients
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可持续性卫生系统将养分从厕所
15:34
from toilets back to farmers' fields,
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循环到农田，
15:37
and innovations in tillage systems,
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创新的耕作系统，
15:39
we can triple, quadruple, yield levels
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我们可以在现有的农田上
15:41
on current land.
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得到三倍，四倍的产量。
15:43
Elinor Ostrom,
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埃莉诺奥斯特罗姆，
15:45
the latest Nobel laureate of economics,
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最新的诺贝尔经济学奖得主，
15:47
clearly shows empirically across the world
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向全世界展示经验
15:49
that we can govern the commons
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那就是我们能管理好，
15:51
if we invest in trust,
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如果我们在信心上，
15:54
local, action-based partnerships
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地方上，以行动为基础的合作伙伴关系上
15:57
and cross-scale institutional innovations,
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和跨机构的创新体制上投资，
16:01
where local actors,
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与地方上的执行者们一起，
16:04
together, can deal with the global commons
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能够在大规模上
16:06
at a large scale.
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处理全球共有的问题。
16:08
But even on the hard policy area we have innovations.
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但是，即便在复杂政治领域，我们也能创新。
16:11
We know that we have to move from our fossil dependence
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我们知道我们必须从依赖石油快速转变到
16:13
very quickly into a low-carbon economy in record time.
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低碳经济。
16:16
And what shall we do?
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我们该怎么办呢？
16:18
Everybody talks about carbon taxes -- it won't work -- emission schemes,
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每个人都在讲碳税--这个不会起作用--碳排放收费计划，
16:21
but for example, one policy measure,
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但是，例如，一个政策措施，
16:23
feed-in tariffs on the energy system,
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对能量系统的电力收购政策，
16:25
which is already applied,
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其实这个已经在实施，
16:27
from China doing it on offshore wind systems,
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从中国对其海上发电系统收购，
16:29
all the way to the U.S.
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一直到美国，
16:31
where you give the guaranteed price for investment in renewable energy,
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你保证了在可再生能源投资的收购价格，
16:33
but you can subsidize electricity to poor people.
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然后能给穷人补贴电费。
16:36
You get people out of poverty.
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让人们摆脱贫穷。
16:38
You solve the climate issue with regards to the energy sector,
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人们在能源方面解决了气候问题，
16:40
while at the same time, stimulating innovation --
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与此同时，刺激了创新--
16:43
examples of things that can be out scaled quickly
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在全球范围内迅速出现了
16:45
at the planetary level.
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类似的例子。
16:47
So there is -- no doubt -- opportunity here,
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这样，毫无疑问地，机会出现了，
16:49
and we can list many, many examples
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我们可以列举出很多，很多
16:52
of transformative opportunities around the planet.
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全球上变革机会的例子。
16:55
The key though in all of these,
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所有这一切的关键，
16:57
the red thread,
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红色警示
16:59
is the shift in mindset,
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意味观念要改变，
17:01
moving away from a situation where we simply are pushing ourselves
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改变了我们只是单一地将我们自己推进
17:04
into a dark future,
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一个黑暗的未来的状况，
17:06
where we instead backcast our future,
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而是展望我们的未来，
17:08
and we say, "What is the playing field on the planet?
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我们说，“什么是地球的绿色竞技场呢？
17:11
What are the planetary boundaries
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什么是我们能够安全生活的
17:13
within which we can safely operate?"
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地球边界？”
17:15
and then backtrack innovations within that.
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正是危机背后推动的创新。
17:17
But of course, the drama is, it clearly shows
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但是，当然的，它清楚地显示出
17:19
that incremental change is not an option.
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渐进式的变化是不可行的。
17:22
So, there is scientific evidence.
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这是科学证据。
17:24
They sort of say the harsh news,
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他们算是说了些重要的新闻，
17:26
that we are facing the largest
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那就是我们正面临着
17:28
transformative development
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自工业化以来的最大的
17:30
since the industrialization.
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变革发展。
17:32
In fact, what we have to do over the next 40 years
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事实上，我们在今后的40年中应该做的
17:34
is much more dramatic and more exciting
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更戏剧化，也更加激动人心
17:37
than what we did when we moved into
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相比当初我们刚面对
17:40
the situation we're in today.
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今天这个情况时所做的。
17:42
Now, science indicates that,
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现在，科学指出，
17:44
yes, we can achieve a prosperous future
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是的，在安全可操作区域，我们能实现
17:46
within the safe operating space,
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一个繁荣的未来理想，
17:48
if we move simultaneously,
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如果我们同时行动，
17:50
collaborating on a global level, from local to global scale,
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在全球层面上的合作，从地方到全球，
17:53
in transformative options, which build resilience on a finite planet.
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在一个有限的地球建立一种变革的适应性。
17:56
Thank you.
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谢谢。
17:58
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Johan Rockstrom - Sustainability expertJohan Rockström works to redefine sustainable development, and figure out what needs to happen.
Why you should listen
Johan Rockström leads the Stockholm Resilience Centre, focusing on a new approach to sustainability: the capacity to use change and crisis to spur renewal and innovative thinking. In 2009, working with an international team of scientists, he identified and quantified a set of nine planetary boundaries within which humanity can continue to develop and thrive for generations to come -- while crossing them could generate abrupt or irreversible environmental changes.
Since then, the boundaries research has spread among international organizations, governments, NGOs and companies and has been adopted as a new framework to guide the discussion about "sustainable growth". It is currently debated as a core part of setting the criteria that will follow the UN's Millennium Development Goals. Rockström also chairs Future Earth, an initiative to advance integrated science for global sustainability.
Johan Rockstrom | Speaker | TED.com