ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Edward Tenner - Historian of technology and culture
Edward Tenner is an independent writer, speaker, and editor analyzing the cultural aspects of technological change.

Why you should listen

Edward Tenner is an independent writer and speaker on the history of technology and the unintended consequences of innovation. He writes for The Atlantic on history and current events, and was a founding advisor of Smithsonian's Lemelson Center, where he remains a senior research associate. He was executive editor for physical science and history at Princeton University Press, he has been a visiting lecturer at Princeton and has held visiting research positions at the Institute for Advanced Study, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and the Princeton Center for Information Technology Policy. He is now a visiting scholar in the Rutgers School of Communication and Information and an affiliate of the Center for Arts and Cultural Policy of Princeton's Woodrow Wilson School.

More profile about the speaker
Edward Tenner | Speaker | TED.com
TED2011

Edward Tenner: Unintended consequences

爱德华·坦纳:无意识后果

Filmed:
873,460 views

每个新发明都在改变着世界 -- 不论是有意还是无意的。历史学家爱德华·坦纳通过事例,阐述了我们的创新能力和可预见的后果之间的差距。
- Historian of technology and culture
Edward Tenner is an independent writer, speaker, and editor analyzing the cultural aspects of technological change. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:15
I didn't always love unintended意外 consequences后果,
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我不总是喜欢无意识的后果
00:18
but I've really learned学到了 to appreciate欣赏 them.
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但是我真正的学会了去欣赏它们
00:20
I've learned学到了 that they're really the essence本质
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我了解到它们是推动我们
00:22
of what makes品牌 for progress进展,
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进步的本质
00:24
even when they seem似乎 to be terrible可怕.
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即便在它们看起来不招人喜欢的时候
00:27
And I'd like to review评论
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我想回顾一下
00:29
just how unintended意外 consequences后果
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无意识后果
00:32
play the part部分 that they do.
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是如何起做到作用的
00:35
Let's go to 40,000 years年份 before the present当下,
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让我们追溯到距今40,000年前
00:40
to the time of the cultural文化 explosion爆炸,
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文化大爆炸时期
00:44
when music音乐, art艺术, technology技术,
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回到当音乐,艺术,科技这类
00:49
so many许多 of the things that we're enjoying享受 today今天,
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我们今天享用着的众多事物
00:51
so many许多 of the things that are being存在 demonstrated证明 at TEDTED
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我们在TED展示着的众多事物
00:54
were born天生.
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诞生之时
00:56
And the anthropologist人类学家 Randall兰德尔 White白色
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人类学家 兰德尔·怀特
00:59
has made制作 a very interesting有趣 observation意见:
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有一个非常有趣的评论
01:02
that if our ancestors祖先
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如果我们的祖先
01:04
40,000 years年份 ago
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在40,000年前
01:06
had been able能够 to see
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就可以看到
01:09
what they had doneDONE,
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他们做了什么
01:11
they wouldn't不会 have really understood了解 it.
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他们不会真正理解
01:13
They were responding响应
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他们只会对应对
01:15
to immediate即时 concerns关注.
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眼前之急
01:18
They were making制造 it possible可能 for us
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他们为我们创造了继承发扬
01:20
to do what they do,
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的可能性
01:22
and yet然而, they didn't really understand理解
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可是,他们其实并不知道
01:24
how they did it.
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是如何做的
01:26
Now let's advance提前 to 10,000 years年份 before the present当下.
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现在让我们回到距今10,000年前
01:31
And this is when it really gets得到 interesting有趣.
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这是变得有趣的时期
01:33
What about the domestication驯化 of grains谷物?
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庄稼的规模种植?
01:36
What about the origins起源 of agriculture农业?
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农业的起源?
01:39
What would our ancestors祖先 10,000 years年份 ago
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一万年前如果我们的祖先们有技术评估
01:42
have said
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的能力
01:44
if they really had technology技术 assessment评定?
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他们会怎么说?
01:46
And I could just imagine想像 the committees委员会
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我可以想象委员会
01:48
reporting报告 back to them
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会向他们汇报
01:50
on where agriculture农业 was going to take humanity人性,
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农业将把人类引向何处
01:53
at least最小 in the next下一个 few少数 hundred years年份.
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至少在未来的几百年期间
01:56
It was really bad news新闻.
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那可是个坏消息
01:58
First of all, worse更差 nutrition营养,
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首先,更糟的营养
02:00
maybe shorter life spans跨度.
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也许更短的生命
02:02
It was simply只是 awful可怕 for women妇女.
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农业规模化对于女性来说非常糟糕
02:04
The skeletal骨骼 remains遗迹 from that period
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存留下来的当时人类骨骼显示
02:06
have shown显示 that they were grinding磨碎 grain粮食 morning早上, noon中午 and night.
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他们当时日以继夜的碾磨谷物
02:11
And politically政治上, it was awful可怕.
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从政治上看,这是糟糕的
02:14
It was the beginning开始 of a much higher更高 degree
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这是更严重的人与人之间
02:17
of inequality不等式 among其中 people.
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不平等的开始
02:20
If there had been rational合理的 technology技术 assessment评定 then,
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如果那时有一种理性的技术进行评估
02:23
I think they very well might威力 have said,
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我想他们很可能会说
02:25
"Let's call the whole整个 thing off."
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“这事儿还是算了吧”
02:28
Even now, our choices选择 are having unintended意外 effects效果.
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即便现在,我们的选择都存在着无意识的效果
02:32
Historically历史, for example,
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从历史角度看,举个例子
02:34
chopsticks筷子 -- according根据 to one Japanese日本 anthropologist人类学家
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筷子--根据一位密西根大学
02:37
who wrote a dissertation论文 about it
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发表过相关论文的
02:39
at the University大学 of Michigan密歇根州 --
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日本人类学家的观点--
02:41
resulted导致 in long-term长期 changes变化
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筷子导致了日本公众的
02:44
in the dentition牙列, in the teeth,
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齿系,牙齿
02:46
of the Japanese日本 public上市.
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发生了长期的变化
02:48
And we are also changing改变 our teeth right now.
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我们现在也在改变着我们的牙齿
02:51
There is evidence证据
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有个证据显示
02:53
that the human人的 mouth and teeth
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人类的嘴和牙齿
02:55
are growing生长 smaller all the time.
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正在不断的变小
02:57
That's not necessarily一定 a bad unintended意外 consequence后果.
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这未必就是不好的无意识后果
03:00
But I think from the point of view视图 of a Neanderthal尼安德特人,
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但是我认为站在尼安德特人的角度
03:02
there would have been a lot of disapproval不赞成
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对我们不成大器的牙齿
03:04
of the wimpishwimpish choppers菜刀 that we now have.
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也许会有很多异议
03:07
So these things are kind of relative相对的
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因此这些事情是相对的
03:10
to where you or your ancestors祖先 happen发生 to stand.
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是基于你或你的祖先当时所处的位置所决定的
03:14
In the ancient world世界
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在远古世界
03:16
there was a lot of respect尊重 for unintended意外 consequences后果,
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对无意识后果抱有很强的尊重感
03:19
and there was a very healthy健康 sense of caution警告,
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并且有一种非常健康的谨慎感
03:22
reflected反射的 in the Tree of Knowledge知识,
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体现在智慧树上
03:24
in Pandora's潘多拉 Box,
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体现潘多拉盒上
03:26
and especially特别 in the myth神话 of Prometheus普罗米修斯
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特别体现在普罗米修斯神话中
03:28
that's been so important重要
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在近代关于科学的比喻中
03:30
in recent最近 metaphors隐喻 about technology技术.
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是非常重要的
03:32
And that's all very true真正.
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那都是非常真实的
03:35
The physicians医师 of the ancient world世界 --
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古代的医生们--
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especially特别 the Egyptians埃及人,
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特别是那些我们所了解的
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who started开始 medicine医学 as we know it --
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开始研究医学的埃及医生--
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were very conscious意识
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对于什么病能医治
03:43
of what they could and couldn't不能 treat对待.
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什么病不能治头脑是非常清醒的
03:45
And the translations译文 of the surviving幸存 texts文本 say,
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保留下来的文字资料上写着
03:50
"This I will not treat对待. This I cannot不能 treat对待."
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“这我不能治,这个我不会治”
03:52
They were very conscious意识.
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他们都非常明了
03:54
So were the followers追随者 of Hippocrates希波克拉底.
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因此他们都是希波克拉底的追随者
03:56
The Hippocratic希波克拉底 manuscripts手稿 also --
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希波克拉底的手稿同样--
03:58
repeatedly反复, according根据 to recent最近 studies学习 --
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根据最近的研究,反复的--
04:01
show显示 how important重要 it is not to do harm危害.
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说明不造成伤害是多么重要
04:04
More recently最近,
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最近
04:06
Harvey哈维 Cushing库欣,
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哈维·库欣
04:08
who really developed发达 neurosurgery神经外科 as we know it,
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他对神经外科起到了重大的推动作用
04:10
who changed it from a field领域 of medicine医学
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他把神经外科从一个会因为手术导致很多人
04:13
that had a majority多数 of deaths死亡 resulting造成 from surgery手术
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死亡的医学领域改变成为了一个
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to one in which哪一个 there was a hopeful有希望 outlook外表,
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拥有着光明希望前景的领域
04:20
he was very conscious意识
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他非常清楚
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that he was not always going to do the right thing.
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他不可能永远是正确的
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But he did his best最好,
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但是他尽了全力
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and he kept不停 meticulous细致 records记录
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并且总是一丝不苟
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that let him transform转变 that branch of medicine医学.
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正是这些使他改变了这个医学分支
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Now if we look forward前锋 a bit
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现在如果我们在向前看一下
04:35
to the 19th century世纪,
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来到19世纪
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we find a new style样式 of technology技术.
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我们会发现科技的新类型
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What we find is,
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那就是
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no longer simple简单 tools工具,
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不再是单一工具
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but systems系统.
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而是系统
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We find more and more
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我们发现越来越多
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complex复杂 arrangements安排 of machines
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机器复杂的结构
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that make it harder更难 and harder更难
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从而越来越难去
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to diagnose诊断 what's going on.
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判断发生了什么
04:54
And the first people who saw that
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首先体会到这些的人
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were the telegrapherstelegraphers of the mid-中-19th century世纪,
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是19世纪中期的电报员
04:59
who were the original原版的 hackers黑客.
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他们是黑客的鼻祖
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Thomas托马斯 Edison爱迪生 would have been very, very comfortable自在
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托马斯·爱迪生如果生活在当今软件公司的氛围中
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in the atmosphere大气层 of a software软件 firm公司 today今天.
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将会非常非常舒服
05:07
And these hackers黑客 had a word
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这些黑客们有一个词
05:10
for those mysterious神秘 bugs虫子 in telegraph电报 systems系统
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形容那些很离奇的电报系统错误
05:13
that they called bugs虫子.
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他们称其为 “bugs”
05:15
That was the origin起源 of the word "bug窃听器."
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那就是现在说的“故障”这个词的原型
05:19
This consciousness意识, though虽然,
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这个有意识的命名于是就
05:21
was a little slow to seep渗透 through通过 the general一般 population人口,
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慢慢地传到了民间
05:24
even people who were very, very well informed通知.
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特别是消息灵通人士那里
05:27
Samuel塞缪尔 Clemens克莱门斯, Mark标记 Twain吐温,
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萨缪尔·克莱门斯,马克·吐温
05:29
was a big investor投资者
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是个大发明家
05:31
in the most complex复杂 machine of all times --
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发明了最复杂的机器--
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at least最小 until直到 1918 --
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至少在1918年前是的--
05:36
registered注册 with the U.S. Patent专利 Office办公室.
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在美国专利局注册
05:38
That was the Paige佩奇 typesetter排字.
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那就是佩奇排字机
05:40
The Paige佩奇 typesetter排字
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佩奇排字机
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had 18,000 parts部分.
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有一万八千个部件
05:44
The patent专利 had 64 pages网页 of text文本
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专利有64页文字
05:47
and 271 figures人物.
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和271张图表
05:51
It was such这样 a beautiful美丽 machine
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那是如此棒的一台机器
05:53
because it did everything that a human人的 being存在 did
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因为它可以胜任排字员的
05:56
in setting设置 type类型 --
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所有工作--
05:58
including包含 returning回国 the type类型 to its place地点,
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包括排字机归位
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which哪一个 was a very difficult thing.
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这是非常困难的事
06:02
And Mark标记 Twain吐温, who knew知道 all about typesetting排版,
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对排版了如指掌的马克·吐温
06:04
really was smitten重拳出击 by this machine.
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却因为这台机器受到沉重打击
06:07
Unfortunately不幸, he was smitten重拳出击 in more ways方法 than one,
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不幸的是,他受的打击还不止于此
06:10
because it made制作 him bankrupt破产者,
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他因此破产了
06:12
and he had to tour游览 the world世界 speaking请讲
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不得不靠世界巡回演讲
06:14
to recoup补偿 his money.
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偿还负债
06:17
And this was an important重要 thing
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这件事对于19世纪的科技
06:19
about 19th century世纪 technology技术,
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意义重大
06:21
that all these relationships关系 among其中 parts部分
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组件之间的相互联系
06:23
could make the most brilliant辉煌 idea理念 fall秋季 apart距离,
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有可能使得最好的点子付之东流
06:27
even when judged判断 by the most expert专家 people.
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即使它得到了顶级专家的认可
06:29
Now there is something else其他, though虽然, in the early 20th century世纪
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20世纪早期,还有一些事件
06:32
that made制作 things even more complicated复杂.
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使得情况变得更加复杂
06:35
And that was that safety安全 technology技术 itself本身
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那就是安全技术本身
06:38
could be a source资源 of danger危险.
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就可能成为危险源
06:40
The lesson of the Titanic泰坦尼克号, for a lot of the contemporaries同时代,
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对于很多同龄人来说,泰坦尼克就是一个教训
06:43
was that you must必须 have enough足够 lifeboats救生艇
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那就是你必须保证为乘客准备
06:45
for everyone大家 on the ship.
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足够的救生船
06:47
And this was the result结果
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这场悲剧的后果就是
06:50
of the tragic悲惨 loss失利 of lives生活
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众多乘客因为没有
06:52
of people who could not get into them.
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足够的救生船逃生而失去了生命
06:54
However然而, there was another另一个 case案件, the Eastland伊斯特兰,
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但是,还有一个案例,在伊斯特兰
06:57
a ship that capsized翻船 in Chicago芝加哥 Harbor港口 in 1915,
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1915年有一艘船在芝加哥港沉没
07:01
and it killed杀害 841 people --
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841人遇难--
07:04
that was 14 more
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比泰坦尼克号
07:06
than the passenger乘客 toll收费 of the Titanic泰坦尼克号.
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遇难人数还多14名乘客
07:09
The reason原因 for it, in part部分, was
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究其原因,某种程度上说
07:11
the extra额外 life boats that were added添加
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是因为船上增加了额外的救生船
07:14
that made制作 this already已经 unstable不稳定 ship
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使得原本平衡性就很差的船
07:17
even more unstable不稳定.
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更加不稳
07:19
And that again proves证明
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这再次证明
07:21
that when you're talking about unintended意外 consequences后果,
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当我们谈论无意识后果的时候
07:24
it's not that easy简单 to know
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从中找出教训并不是
07:26
the right lessons教训 to draw.
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一件简单的事情
07:28
It's really a question of the system系统, how the ship was loaded,
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这实际上是个系统问题,船是如何装载的
07:31
the ballast压载 and many许多 other things.
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压舱物和许多其他东西
07:35
So the 20th century世纪, then,
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接着在20世纪
07:38
saw how much more complex复杂 reality现实 was,
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我们见识了现实是多么的复杂
07:40
but it also saw a positive side.
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同时也看到了其积极的一面
07:43
It saw that invention发明
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那就是发明创造
07:46
could actually其实 benefit效益 from emergencies紧急情况.
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可以切实地从突发事件中受益
07:48
It could benefit效益
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从灾难中
07:50
from tragedies悲剧.
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受益
07:53
And my favorite喜爱 example of that --
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我最喜欢的案例--
07:55
which哪一个 is not really widely广泛 known已知
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作为一个技术革新的奇迹
07:57
as a technological技术性 miracle奇迹,
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却并不广为人知
07:59
but it may可能 be one of the greatest最大 of all times,
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但是它可能是最伟大的发明之一
08:02
was the scaling缩放 up of penicillin青霉素 in the Second第二 World世界 War战争.
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那就是二次大战中青霉素的广泛使用
08:06
Penicillin青霉素 was discovered发现 in 1928,
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青霉素诞生于1928年
08:09
but even by 1940,
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但直到1940年
08:11
no commercially商业 and medically医疗 useful有用 quantities数量 of it
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不论是在商业上或者医学上都没有
08:14
were being存在 produced生成.
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大量生产
08:16
A number of pharmaceutical制药 companies公司 were working加工 on it.
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当时的许多制药厂都在生产
08:19
They were working加工 on it independently独立地,
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他们都在独立生产
08:21
and they weren't getting得到 anywhere随地.
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产量很有限
08:23
And the Government政府 Research研究 Bureau
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政府研究部门
08:25
brought representatives代表 together一起
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把制药厂代表召集在一起
08:27
and told them that this is something
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告知他们必须要生产
08:29
that has to be doneDONE.
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青霉素
08:31
And not only did they do it,
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他们不仅仅按要求做了
08:33
but within two years年份,
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而且在两年内
08:35
they scaled缩放 up penicillin青霉素
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增加了青霉素产量
08:37
from preparation制备 in one-liter一升 flasks
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从预先的一公升烧瓶
08:40
to 10,000-gallon-加仑 vats大桶.
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增加到一万加仑的大桶
08:44
That was how quickly很快 penicillin青霉素 was produced生成
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这就是青霉素如何短期内迅速制造的
08:48
and became成为 one of the greatest最大 medical advances进步 of all time.
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并成为有史以来最伟大的医学进步之一
08:52
In the Second第二 World世界 War战争, too,
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还是在二战期间
08:54
the existence存在
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太阳能辐射
08:56
of solar太阳能 radiation辐射
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的存在
08:58
was demonstrated证明 by studies学习 of interference干扰
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通过英国雷达站进行探测的
09:01
that was detected检测 by the radar雷达 stations of Great Britain英国.
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干扰研究而发现
09:05
So there were benefits好处 in calamities灾难 --
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这就从灾难中的受益--
09:08
benefits好处 to pure science科学,
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对纯粹科学研究有益
09:10
as well as to applied应用的 science科学
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同时应用科学和医学都
09:12
and medicine医学.
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从中受益
09:15
Now when we come to the period after the Second第二 World世界 War战争,
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现在当我们来到后二战时期
09:18
unintended意外 consequences后果 get even more interesting有趣.
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无意识后果变得更加有趣
09:22
And my favorite喜爱 example of that
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我最喜欢的案例
09:24
occurred发生 beginning开始 in 1976,
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发生在1976年
09:27
when it was discovered发现
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军团病致病病菌
09:29
that the bacteria causing造成 Legionnaires军团 disease疾病
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被研究发现
09:32
had always been present当下 in natural自然 waters水域,
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一直存在与天然水中
09:35
but it was the precise精确 temperature温度 of the water
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但是供热,通风和空气流通条件下
09:39
in heating加热, ventilating and air空气 conditioning空调 systems系统
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水的温度
09:42
that raised上调 the right temperature温度
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能升高到
09:46
for the maximum最大值 reproduction再生产
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有利于军团杆菌繁殖的
09:49
of Legionella军团菌 bacillus杆菌.
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最大化的温度
09:51
Well, technology技术 to the rescue拯救.
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科学技术开始进行补救
09:53
So chemists化学家 got to work,
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于是药剂师们开始了研究
09:55
and they developed发达 a bactericide杀菌剂
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他们发明了一种杀菌剂
09:57
that became成为 widely广泛 used in those systems系统.
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可以广泛地用于上述系统中
10:00
But something else其他 happened发生 in the early 1980s,
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但是19世纪80年代早期发生了一件事
10:04
and that was that there was a mysterious神秘 epidemic疫情
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全美国的磁带播放器就像患上
10:06
of failures故障 of tape胶带 drives驱动器
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流行病一样
10:09
all over the United联合的 States状态.
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出了故障
10:11
And IBMIBM, which哪一个 made制作 them,
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播放器生产商IBM
10:14
just didn't know what to do.
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也不清楚应该如何应对
10:17
They commissioned委托 a group of their best最好 scientists科学家们
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他们委任其最好的科研团队
10:20
to investigate调查,
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进行调查
10:22
and what they found发现 was
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他们发现
10:24
that all these tape胶带 drives驱动器
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所有出现故障的播放器
10:26
were located位于 near ventilation通风 ducts管道.
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都接近通风口
10:29
What happened发生 was the bactericide杀菌剂 was formulated制定
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原因就是这种杀菌药物
10:32
with minute分钟 traces痕迹 of tin.
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含有微量锡
10:34
And these tin particles粒子 were deposited沉积 on the tape胶带 heads
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这些锡微粒落在磁带的磁头部位
10:37
and were crashing轰然 the tape胶带 heads.
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损坏了磁头
10:40
So they reformulated重新 the bactericide杀菌剂.
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于是他们重新制造了杀菌剂
10:43
But what's interesting有趣 to me
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但是让我感兴趣的是
10:45
is that this was the first case案件
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这是第一个致使
10:47
of a mechanical机械 device设备
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机械设备受损的案例
10:49
suffering痛苦, at least最小 indirectly间接, from a human人的 disease疾病.
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至少是间接由人类疾病引起的设备受损
10:52
So it shows节目 that we're really all in this together一起.
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因此这表明我们其实都已经卷入其中了
10:55
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
10:57
In fact事实, it also shows节目 something interesting有趣,
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实际上它还反映了一些有意思的事情
11:00
that although虽然 our capabilities功能 and technology技术
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那就是虽然我们的能力和科技水平
11:03
have been expanding扩大 geometrically几何,
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成几何级数的增长
11:05
unfortunately不幸, our ability能力 to model模型 their long-term长期 behavior行为,
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遗憾的是,我们模仿它们的同样不断增长的
11:08
which哪一个 has also been increasing增加,
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长期习性的能力
11:10
has been increasing增加 only arithmetically算术.
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仅仅以算术级增长
11:13
So one of the characteristic特性 problems问题 of our time
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因此在我们的时代,一个典型的问题就是
11:16
is how to close this gap间隙
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如何消除
11:18
between之间 capabilities功能 and foresight先见之明.
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能力增长和预见性之间的差距
11:21
One other very positive consequence后果
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20世纪科技发展
11:24
of 20th century世纪 technology技术, though虽然,
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导致了另一个正面结果
11:27
was the way in which哪一个 other kinds of calamities灾难
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虽然形式上是通过各种灾难
11:31
could lead to positive advances进步.
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但却产生了积极的影响
11:34
There are two historians历史学家 of business商业
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马里兰大学的
11:37
at the University大学 of Maryland马里兰,
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两位企业史学家
11:39
Brent黑雁 Goldfarb戈德法布 and David大卫 Kirsch基尔希,
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布伦特·戈德法布 和 大卫·基尔希
11:41
who have doneDONE some extremely非常 interesting有趣 work,
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做了一些关于人类发明史的
11:43
much of it still unpublished未公布,
267
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非常有趣的工作
11:46
on the history历史 of major重大的 innovations创新.
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大部分还尚未发表
11:48
They have combined结合 the list名单 of major重大的 innovations创新,
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他们列出了重大的发明创造
11:51
and they've他们已经 discovered发现 that the greatest最大 number, the greatest最大 decade,
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发现那些能在其它发明中体现出来的基础性发明
11:54
for fundamental基本的 innovations创新,
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产生数量最多
11:56
as reflected反射的 in all of the lists名单 that others其他 have made制作 --
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最伟大的十年--
12:00
a number of lists名单 that they have merged合并的 --
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他们对发明目录进行了合并--
12:02
was the Great Depression萧条.
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是大萧条时期
12:05
And nobody没有人 knows知道 just why this was so,
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没有人知道为什么是这样
12:08
but one story故事 can reflect反映 something of it.
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但是有件事反映出一些问题
12:11
It was the origin起源 of the Xerox复印 copier复印机,
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那就是施乐复印机的诞生
12:14
which哪一个 celebrated著名 its 50th anniversary周年
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他们去年刚刚进行了50周年
12:17
last year.
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庆祝
12:19
And Chester切斯特 Carlson卡尔森, the inventor发明者,
280
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它的发明者 切斯特·卡尔森
12:24
was a patent专利 attorney律师.
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曾是一位专利代理人
12:27
He really was not intending打算
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他其实并没有打算
12:30
to work in patent专利 research研究,
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致力于专利研究
12:32
but he couldn't不能 really find an alternative替代 technical技术 job工作.
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但是他找不到其他的技术性工作
12:36
So this was the best最好 job工作 he could get.
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所以这是他能找到的最好的工作
12:38
He was upset烦乱 by the low quality质量 and high cost成本
286
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他对于当时低质量高成本的
12:42
of existing现有 patent专利 reproductions复制品,
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复印技术专利很失望
12:45
and so he started开始 to develop发展
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于是他开始发明一套
12:48
a system系统 of dry photocopying复印,
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干法复印系统
12:51
which哪一个 he patented专利 in the late晚了 1930s --
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并在19实际30年代后期申请了专利--
12:54
and which哪一个 became成为 the first dry photocopier复印机
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于1960年成为了第一个
12:58
that was commercially商业 practical实际的
292
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用于商业用途的
13:00
in 1960.
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干式复印机
13:02
So we see that sometimes有时,
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因此我们看到
13:04
as a result结果 of these dislocations错位,
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由于这些阴错阳差
13:06
as a result结果 of people
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由于人们
13:08
leaving离开 their original原版的 intended career事业
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改变了他们了原有的职业方向
13:11
and going into something else其他
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进入到一个
13:13
where their creativity创造力 could make a difference区别,
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可以通过他们的创造力带来改变的领域
13:15
that depressions洼地
300
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沮丧
13:17
and all kinds of other unfortunate不幸的 events事件
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以及其它各种不如意
13:20
can have a paradoxically自相矛盾 stimulating刺激 effect影响
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反而可以对他们的创造力有刺激的
13:23
on creativity创造力.
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效果
13:25
What does this mean?
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这意味这什么?
13:27
It means手段, I think,
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我认为它表明
13:29
that we're living活的 in a time of unexpected意外 possibilities可能性.
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我们生活在一个存在着意外可能性的时代
13:31
Think of the financial金融 world世界, for example.
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想一下金融圈的例子
13:34
The mentor导师 of Warren养兔场 Buffett巴菲特, Benjamin本杰明 Graham格雷厄姆,
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金融巨鳄沃伦·巴菲特,本杰明·格拉汉姆
13:37
developed发达 his system系统 of value investing投资
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开发了价值投资系统
13:42
as a result结果 of his own拥有 losses损失
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正由于他自己在1929年
13:44
in the 1929 crash紧急.
311
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的破产
13:46
And he published发表 that book
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接着又于19世纪30年代初期
13:48
in the early 1930s,
313
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出版了那本书
13:51
and the book still exists存在 in further进一步 editions版本
314
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现在依然再版发行着
13:53
and is still a fundamental基本的 textbook教科书.
315
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并且依旧作为基础教材
13:55
So many许多 important重要 creative创作的 things can happen发生
316
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因此许多重要的发明都源于
13:59
when people learn学习 from disasters灾害.
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人类从灾难中汲取经验
14:02
Now think of the large and small plagues瘟疫 that we have now --
318
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想想我们现在大大小小的麻烦--
14:06
bed bugs虫子, killer凶手 bees蜜蜂, spam垃圾邮件 --
319
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臭虫 杀人蜂 垃圾邮件--
14:11
and it's very possible可能 that the solutions解决方案 to those
320
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那些原本用来解决上述麻烦的技术
14:14
will really extend延伸 well beyond the immediate即时 question.
321
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很可能在其它领域得到更大应用
14:17
If we think, for example, of Louis路易 Pasteur巴斯德,
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我们想一下,比如路易斯·巴斯德
14:20
who in the 1860s
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18世纪60年代
14:22
was asked to study研究
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被要求对
14:24
the diseases疾病 of silk worms蠕虫 for the silk industry行业,
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丝绸行业中的蚕的疾病进行研究
14:28
and his discoveries发现 were really the beginning开始
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他的发现却成为了疾病细菌理论的
14:31
of the germ病菌 theory理论 of disease疾病.
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开山之作
14:33
So very often经常, some kind of disaster灾害 --
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这不少见,有些灾害--
14:36
sometimes有时 the consequence后果, for example,
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有些后果,比如
14:39
of over-cultivation过度开垦 of silk worms蠕虫,
330
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过度种植蚕
14:42
which哪一个 was a problem问题 in Europe欧洲 at the time --
331
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成为了当时欧洲的问题--
14:44
can be the key to something much bigger.
332
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可能比一些事情的意义更大
14:46
So this means手段
333
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因此这意味着
14:48
that we need to take a different不同 view视图
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我们需要换个角度看
14:50
of unintended意外 consequences后果.
335
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无意识的后果
14:52
We need to take a really positive view视图.
336
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我们需要一个非常积极的态度
14:55
We need to see what they can do for us.
337
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我们要看到他可以为我们做什么
14:58
We need to learn学习
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我们需要从
15:00
from those figures人物 that I mentioned提到.
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我提到的那些图表中学习
15:02
We need to learn学习, for example, from Dr博士. Cushing库欣,
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我们需要,比如 从库欣博士身上学习
15:05
who killed杀害 patients耐心
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在早期的手术中
15:07
in the course课程 of his early operations操作.
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他使得病人丧失了生命
15:09
He had to have some errors错误. He had to have some mistakes错误.
343
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他犯了些错误,是他的过失
15:12
And he learned学到了 meticulously精心 from his mistakes错误.
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然后他非常仔细的从错误中吸取经验
15:15
And as a result结果,
345
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因此
15:17
when we say, "This isn't brain surgery手术,"
346
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当我们说“这不是一个简单的脑外科手术”
15:20
that pays支付 tribute to how difficult it was
347
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它不是用来被证明有多么困难
15:23
for anyone任何人 to learn学习 from their mistakes错误
348
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然后被大家当作医疗领域失败案例
15:25
in a field领域 of medicine医学
349
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来借鉴的脑外科手术
15:27
that was considered考虑 so discouraging令人沮丧 in its prospects前途.
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它被认为是使其所在医疗领域前景变得堪忧的手术
15:30
And we can also remember记得
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我们同样记得
15:33
how the pharmaceutical制药 companies公司
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医药公司
15:35
were willing愿意 to pool their knowledge知识,
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是如何汇集他们的知识
15:37
to share分享 their knowledge知识,
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去共享他们的知识
15:39
in the face面对 of an emergency,
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在面对危急时刻之时
15:41
which哪一个 they hadn't有没有 really been for years年份 and years年份.
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他们也许并不是总这样做
15:44
They might威力 have been able能够 to do it earlier.
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也许可以做的更早一些
15:47
The message信息, then, for me,
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对于我来说
15:50
about unintended意外 consequences后果
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无意识后果的主旨
15:52
is chaos混沌 happens发生;
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是混乱的产物
15:55
let's make better use of it.
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让我们更好的去运用它
15:57
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢
15:59
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
Translated by Jiwei Qu
Reviewed by Chunxiang Qian

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Edward Tenner - Historian of technology and culture
Edward Tenner is an independent writer, speaker, and editor analyzing the cultural aspects of technological change.

Why you should listen

Edward Tenner is an independent writer and speaker on the history of technology and the unintended consequences of innovation. He writes for The Atlantic on history and current events, and was a founding advisor of Smithsonian's Lemelson Center, where he remains a senior research associate. He was executive editor for physical science and history at Princeton University Press, he has been a visiting lecturer at Princeton and has held visiting research positions at the Institute for Advanced Study, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and the Princeton Center for Information Technology Policy. He is now a visiting scholar in the Rutgers School of Communication and Information and an affiliate of the Center for Arts and Cultural Policy of Princeton's Woodrow Wilson School.

More profile about the speaker
Edward Tenner | Speaker | TED.com