TED2011
Edward Tenner: Unintended consequences
Edward Tenner: Nenamjerne posljedice
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Svaki novi izum mijenja svijet, kako na željen način, tako i na neke neočekivane načine. Povjesničar Edward Tenner donosi priče kojima ilustrira ne toliko poznatu razliku između naše sposobnosti inovacije i sposobnosti predviđanja posljedica.
Edward Tenner - Historian of technology and culture
Edward Tenner is an independent writer, speaker, and editor analyzing the cultural aspects of technological change. Full bio
Edward Tenner is an independent writer, speaker, and editor analyzing the cultural aspects of technological change. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
I didn't always love unintended consequences,
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Nisam uvijek volio nenamjerne posljedice,
00:18
but I've really learned to appreciate them.
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ali naučio sam ih zaista cijeniti.
00:20
I've learned that they're really the essence
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Naučio sam da su one
00:22
of what makes for progress,
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bit napretka,
00:24
even when they seem to be terrible.
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čak i kad se čine strašnima.
00:27
And I'd like to review
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Volio bih dati pregled
00:29
just how unintended consequences
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načina na koji nenamjerne posljedice
00:32
play the part that they do.
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igraju svoju ulogu.
00:35
Let's go to 40,000 years before the present,
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Vratimo se u vrijeme prije 40.000 godina,
00:40
to the time of the cultural explosion,
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u vrijeme kulturne eksplozije
00:44
when music, art, technology,
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kad su glazba, umjetnost, tehnologija,
00:49
so many of the things that we're enjoying today,
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tolike stvari u kojima danas uživamo,
00:51
so many of the things that are being demonstrated at TED
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tolike stvari koje se predstavljaju na TED-u
00:54
were born.
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nastale.
00:56
And the anthropologist Randall White
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Antropolog Randall White
00:59
has made a very interesting observation:
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primijetio je nešto zanimljivo:
01:02
that if our ancestors
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da su naši preci
01:04
40,000 years ago
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prije 40.000 godina
01:06
had been able to see
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mogli vidjeti
01:09
what they had done,
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što su učinili,
01:11
they wouldn't have really understood it.
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ne bi to zapravo razumjeli.
01:13
They were responding
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Oni su reagirali
01:15
to immediate concerns.
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na trenutne potrebe.
01:18
They were making it possible for us
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Omogućavali su nama
01:20
to do what they do,
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da radimo što oni rade,
01:22
and yet, they didn't really understand
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a ipak nisu zapravo shvaćali
01:24
how they did it.
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kako su to učinili.
01:26
Now let's advance to 10,000 years before the present.
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Pomaknimo se sada na 10.000 godina prije sadašnjosti.
01:31
And this is when it really gets interesting.
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Sada postaje stvarno zanimljivo.
01:33
What about the domestication of grains?
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Što je s kultivacijom žitarica?
01:36
What about the origins of agriculture?
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Što je s nastankom poljoprivrede?
01:39
What would our ancestors 10,000 years ago
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Što bi naši preci prije 10.000 godina
01:42
have said
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rekli
01:44
if they really had technology assessment?
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da su imali procjenu tehnologije?
01:46
And I could just imagine the committees
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Već zamišljam odbore
01:48
reporting back to them
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koji podnose izvješća
01:50
on where agriculture was going to take humanity,
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o tome kamo će poljoprivreda odvesti čovječanstvo,
01:53
at least in the next few hundred years.
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barem u narednih nekoliko stotina godina.
01:56
It was really bad news.
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Bile su to zaista loše vijesti.
01:58
First of all, worse nutrition,
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Prvo, lošija prehrana,
02:00
maybe shorter life spans.
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možda kraći životni vijek.
02:02
It was simply awful for women.
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Za žene je bilo jednostavno grozno.
02:04
The skeletal remains from that period
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Ostaci kostura iz tog doba
02:06
have shown that they were grinding grain morning, noon and night.
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pokazali su da su cijele dane mljele žito.
02:11
And politically, it was awful.
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Bilo je grozno i u političkom smislu.
02:14
It was the beginning of a much higher degree
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Bio je to početak mnogo višeg stupnja
02:17
of inequality among people.
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nejednakosti među ljudima.
02:20
If there had been rational technology assessment then,
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Da je tada postojalo racionalno procjenjivanje tehnologije,
02:23
I think they very well might have said,
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mislim da bi bili rekli:
02:25
"Let's call the whole thing off."
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"Hajdemo radije odustati od svega."
02:28
Even now, our choices are having unintended effects.
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Čak i danas naši izbori imaju nenamjerne posljedice.
02:32
Historically, for example,
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Povijesno gledano, primjerice,
02:34
chopsticks -- according to one Japanese anthropologist
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štapići za jelo -- prema jednom japanskom antropologu
02:37
who wrote a dissertation about it
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koji je o tome napisao disertaciju
02:39
at the University of Michigan --
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pri Sveučilištu u Michiganu --
02:41
resulted in long-term changes
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rezultirali su dugoročnim promjenama
02:44
in the dentition, in the teeth,
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na zubalu, na zubima
02:46
of the Japanese public.
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Japanaca.
02:48
And we are also changing our teeth right now.
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A naši se zubi i sada mijenjaju.
02:51
There is evidence
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Postoje dokazi
02:53
that the human mouth and teeth
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da ljudska usta i zubi
02:55
are growing smaller all the time.
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postaju sve manji.
02:57
That's not necessarily a bad unintended consequence.
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To nije nužno loša nenamjerna posljedica.
03:00
But I think from the point of view of a Neanderthal,
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Ali mislim da jedan neandertalac
03:02
there would have been a lot of disapproval
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ne bi nikako bio zadovoljan
03:04
of the wimpish choppers that we now have.
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jadnim zubićima koje sada imamo.
03:07
So these things are kind of relative
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Tako da te stvari uvelike ovise
03:10
to where you or your ancestors happen to stand.
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o tome gdje se nalazite vi ili vaši pretci.
03:14
In the ancient world
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U drevnom svijetu
03:16
there was a lot of respect for unintended consequences,
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nenamjerne su se posljedice duboko poštovale
03:19
and there was a very healthy sense of caution,
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i postojala je zdrava doza opreza,
03:22
reflected in the Tree of Knowledge,
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koja se očituje u Drvu znanja,
03:24
in Pandora's Box,
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u Pandorinoj kutiji,
03:26
and especially in the myth of Prometheus
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i naročito u mitu o Prometeju
03:28
that's been so important
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koji je bio vrlo bitan
03:30
in recent metaphors about technology.
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u novijim metaforama o tehnologiji.
03:32
And that's all very true.
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I to je vrlo istinito.
03:35
The physicians of the ancient world --
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Liječnici drevnog svijeta --
03:37
especially the Egyptians,
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naročito Egipćani,
03:39
who started medicine as we know it --
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koji su osnovali medicinu kakvu danas poznajemo --
03:41
were very conscious
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bili su vrlo svjesni
03:43
of what they could and couldn't treat.
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što mogu, a što ne mogu izliječiti.
03:45
And the translations of the surviving texts say,
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U prijevodima pronađenih tekstova stoji:
03:50
"This I will not treat. This I cannot treat."
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"Ovo neću liječiti. Ovo ne mogu izliječiti."
03:52
They were very conscious.
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Bili su vrlo svjesni.
03:54
So were the followers of Hippocrates.
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Kao i Hipokratovi sljedbenici.
03:56
The Hippocratic manuscripts also --
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Hipokratovi rukopisi također --
03:58
repeatedly, according to recent studies --
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i opet, na temelju novijih istraživanja --
04:01
show how important it is not to do harm.
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pokazuju koliko je bilo bitno ne nanositi štetu.
04:04
More recently,
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U novije vrijeme,
04:06
Harvey Cushing,
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Harvey Cushing,
04:08
who really developed neurosurgery as we know it,
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koji je stvarno razvio neurokirurgiju kakvu danas poznajemo,
04:10
who changed it from a field of medicine
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koji ju je pretvorio iz područja medicine
04:13
that had a majority of deaths resulting from surgery
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na koje je otpadala većina smrti uzrokovanih operacijom
04:17
to one in which there was a hopeful outlook,
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u područje koje je pružalo nadu,
04:20
he was very conscious
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on je bio vrlo svjestan
04:22
that he was not always going to do the right thing.
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da neće uvijek učiniti ono što je ispravno.
04:25
But he did his best,
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No, davao je sve od sebe
04:27
and he kept meticulous records
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i vodio je detaljne bilješke
04:29
that let him transform that branch of medicine.
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koje su mu omogućile da transformira tu granu medicine.
04:32
Now if we look forward a bit
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Ako pogledamo još malo prema naprijed,
04:35
to the 19th century,
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u 19. stoljeće,
04:37
we find a new style of technology.
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pronaći ćemo novu vrstu tehnologije.
04:39
What we find is,
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Ono što pronalazimo
04:41
no longer simple tools,
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više nisu jednostavni alati,
04:44
but systems.
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već sustavi.
04:46
We find more and more
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Pronalazimo
04:48
complex arrangements of machines
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sve složenija postrojenja
04:50
that make it harder and harder
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u kojima je sve teže
04:52
to diagnose what's going on.
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utvrditi što se događa.
04:54
And the first people who saw that
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A prvi ljudi koji su to shvatili
04:56
were the telegraphers of the mid-19th century,
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bili su telegrafisti sredine 19. stoljeća,
04:59
who were the original hackers.
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koji su bili prvi hakeri.
05:01
Thomas Edison would have been very, very comfortable
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Thomas Edison bi se osjećao vrlo, vrlo ugodno
05:04
in the atmosphere of a software firm today.
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u atmosferi današnje softverske tvrtke.
05:07
And these hackers had a word
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Ti hakeri imali su riječ
05:10
for those mysterious bugs in telegraph systems
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za zagonetne greške ("bugove") u telegrafskim sustavima
05:13
that they called bugs.
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i zvali su ih "bugovi" (bube).
05:15
That was the origin of the word "bug."
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Tako je i nastala riječ "bug".
05:19
This consciousness, though,
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No, ta je osviještenost
05:21
was a little slow to seep through the general population,
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prilično sporo dopirala do široke javnosti,
05:24
even people who were very, very well informed.
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čak i do ljudi koji su bili vrlo dobro obaviješteni.
05:27
Samuel Clemens, Mark Twain,
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Samuel Clemens, odnosno Mark Twain,
05:29
was a big investor
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bio je veliki ulagač
05:31
in the most complex machine of all times --
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u najsloženiji stroj svih vremena --
05:34
at least until 1918 --
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barem do 1918. --
05:36
registered with the U.S. Patent Office.
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registriran u Uredu za patente u SAD-u.
05:38
That was the Paige typesetter.
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Bio je to Paigeov stroj za tiskanje.
05:40
The Paige typesetter
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Paigeov stroj za tiskanje
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had 18,000 parts.
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imao je 18.000 dijelova.
05:44
The patent had 64 pages of text
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Patent je imao 64 stranice teksta
05:47
and 271 figures.
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i 271 sliku.
05:51
It was such a beautiful machine
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Bio je to prekrasan stroj
05:53
because it did everything that a human being did
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jer je radio sve što je radio čovjek
05:56
in setting type --
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pri pripremanju tiska --
05:58
including returning the type to its place,
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uključujući i povratak tipke na njezinu mjesto,
06:00
which was a very difficult thing.
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što je bilo vrlo teško.
06:02
And Mark Twain, who knew all about typesetting,
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Marka Twaina, koji je znao sve o tiskanju,
06:04
really was smitten by this machine.
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taj je stroj oborio s nogu.
06:07
Unfortunately, he was smitten in more ways than one,
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Nažalost, oborio ga je na više načina,
06:10
because it made him bankrupt,
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jer je zbog njega bankrotirao
06:12
and he had to tour the world speaking
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te je morao putovati svijetom i držati govore
06:14
to recoup his money.
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kako bi ponovno prikupio novac.
06:17
And this was an important thing
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To je bilo bitno
06:19
about 19th century technology,
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za tehnologiju 19. stoljeća --
06:21
that all these relationships among parts
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zbog svih tih veza između dijelova
06:23
could make the most brilliant idea fall apart,
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i najbolja bi ideja mogla propasti,
06:27
even when judged by the most expert people.
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čak i kad je procjenjuju najstručniji ljudi.
06:29
Now there is something else, though, in the early 20th century
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Početkom 20. stoljeća postojalo je nešto drugo
06:32
that made things even more complicated.
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što je stvari dodatno zakompliciralo,
06:35
And that was that safety technology itself
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a to je činjenica da bi sigurnost same tehnologije
06:38
could be a source of danger.
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mogla biti izvor opasnosti.
06:40
The lesson of the Titanic, for a lot of the contemporaries,
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Lekcija koju su brojni suvremenici naučili od Titanica
06:43
was that you must have enough lifeboats
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bila je da mora biti dovoljno čamaca za spašavanje
06:45
for everyone on the ship.
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za sve na brodu.
06:47
And this was the result
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A to je bio rezultat
06:50
of the tragic loss of lives
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tragičnog gubitka života
06:52
of people who could not get into them.
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ljudi koji nisu mogli ući u čamce.
06:54
However, there was another case, the Eastland,
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No, bio je još jedan slučaj, s Eastlandom,
06:57
a ship that capsized in Chicago Harbor in 1915,
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brodom koji se prevrnuo u luci u Chicagu 1915. godine.
07:01
and it killed 841 people --
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Pritom je poginula 841 osoba --
07:04
that was 14 more
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to je 14 više
07:06
than the passenger toll of the Titanic.
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nego što je bilo putnika na Titanicu.
07:09
The reason for it, in part, was
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Uzrok su, djelomično,
07:11
the extra life boats that were added
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bili dodatni čamci za spašavanje
07:14
that made this already unstable ship
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koji su ionako nestabilan brod
07:17
even more unstable.
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učinili još nestabilnijim.
07:19
And that again proves
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To ponovno dokazuje
07:21
that when you're talking about unintended consequences,
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da kad govorite o nenamjernim posljedicama
07:24
it's not that easy to know
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nije tako lako znati
07:26
the right lessons to draw.
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koje su prave pouke koje treba izvući.
07:28
It's really a question of the system, how the ship was loaded,
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Ovo je zapravo bilo pitanje sustava, tereta na brodu,
07:31
the ballast and many other things.
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balasta i mnogih drugih stvari.
07:35
So the 20th century, then,
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U 20. stoljeću, dakle,
07:38
saw how much more complex reality was,
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vidjeli smo koliko je stvarnost složenija,
07:40
but it also saw a positive side.
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ali to ima i pozitivnu stranu.
07:43
It saw that invention
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Vidjeli smo da inovativnost
07:46
could actually benefit from emergencies.
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može imati koristi od hitnih situacija.
07:48
It could benefit
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Može imati koristi
07:50
from tragedies.
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od tragedija.
07:53
And my favorite example of that --
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Moj najdraži primjer toga --
07:55
which is not really widely known
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što zapravo nije baš poznato
07:57
as a technological miracle,
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kao tehnološko čudo,
07:59
but it may be one of the greatest of all times,
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ali moglo bi biti među najvećima svih vremena,
08:02
was the scaling up of penicillin in the Second World War.
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bio je porast korištenja penicililna u Drugom svjetskom ratu.
08:06
Penicillin was discovered in 1928,
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Penicilin je otkriven 1928. godine,
08:09
but even by 1940,
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ali čak ni do 1940. godine
08:11
no commercially and medically useful quantities of it
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komercijalno i medicinski upotrebljive količine
08:14
were being produced.
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nisu se proizvodile.
08:16
A number of pharmaceutical companies were working on it.
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Nekoliko farmaceutskih tvrtki radilo je na tome.
08:19
They were working on it independently,
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Radile su na tom nezavisno jedna od druge,
08:21
and they weren't getting anywhere.
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i nisu postizale nikakav napredak.
08:23
And the Government Research Bureau
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Tada je vladin Ured za istraživanje
08:25
brought representatives together
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okupio predstavnike tih tvrtki
08:27
and told them that this is something
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i rekli su im da se to
08:29
that has to be done.
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jednostavno mora učiniti.
08:31
And not only did they do it,
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I ne samo da su to učinili,
08:33
but within two years,
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nego su u dvije godine
08:35
they scaled up penicillin
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unaprijedili penicilin
08:37
from preparation in one-liter flasks
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od preparata u litrenim posudama
08:40
to 10,000-gallon vats.
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do spremnika od 10.000 galona.
08:44
That was how quickly penicillin was produced
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Tako se brzo penicilin proizvodio
08:48
and became one of the greatest medical advances of all time.
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i postao je jedno od najvećih medicinskih dostignuća svih vremena.
08:52
In the Second World War, too,
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Također u Drugom svjetskom ratu,
08:54
the existence
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postojanje
08:56
of solar radiation
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sunčevog zračenja
08:58
was demonstrated by studies of interference
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dokazano je studijama interferencije
09:01
that was detected by the radar stations of Great Britain.
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koju su otkrile radarske stanice u Velikoj Britaniji.
09:05
So there were benefits in calamities --
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Dakle, nesreće su imale i pozitivnih posljedica --
09:08
benefits to pure science,
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koristi za čistu znanost,
09:10
as well as to applied science
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kao i za primijenjenu znanost
09:12
and medicine.
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i medicinu.
09:15
Now when we come to the period after the Second World War,
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Kad dođemo do razdoblja nakon Drugog svjetskog rata,
09:18
unintended consequences get even more interesting.
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nenamjerne posljedice postaju još zanimljivije.
09:22
And my favorite example of that
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Moj najdraži primjer toga
09:24
occurred beginning in 1976,
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pojavio se početkom 1976. godine,
09:27
when it was discovered
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kad je otkriveno
09:29
that the bacteria causing Legionnaires disease
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da je bakterija koja uzrokuje legionarsku bolest
09:32
had always been present in natural waters,
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oduvijek prisutna u vodama u prirodi,
09:35
but it was the precise temperature of the water
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ali upravo temperatura vode
09:39
in heating, ventilating and air conditioning systems
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u sustavima za grijanje, ventilaciju i klimatizaciju
09:42
that raised the right temperature
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dovela do pogodne temperature
09:46
for the maximum reproduction
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za maksimalno množenje
09:49
of Legionella bacillus.
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bakterije Legionella bacillus.
09:51
Well, technology to the rescue.
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Tehnologija nam dolazi u pomoć!
09:53
So chemists got to work,
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Kemičari su se bacili na posao
09:55
and they developed a bactericide
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i razvili su baktericid
09:57
that became widely used in those systems.
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koji se počeo široko primjenjivati u tim sustavima.
10:00
But something else happened in the early 1980s,
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No, nešto se drugo dogodilo početkom 80-ih,
10:04
and that was that there was a mysterious epidemic
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a to je da je naišla tajanstvena epidemija
10:06
of failures of tape drives
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kvarova čitača disketa
10:09
all over the United States.
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u cijelom SAD-u.
10:11
And IBM, which made them,
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IBM, koji ih je proizvodio,
10:14
just didn't know what to do.
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nije znao što da učini.
10:17
They commissioned a group of their best scientists
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Okupili su skupinu svojih najboljih znanstvenika
10:20
to investigate,
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kako bi to istražili.
10:22
and what they found was
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Otkrili su
10:24
that all these tape drives
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da su svi ti čitači
10:26
were located near ventilation ducts.
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bili smješteni u blizini ventilacijskih cijevi.
10:29
What happened was the bactericide was formulated
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Spomenuti je baktericid sadržavao
10:32
with minute traces of tin.
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male količine kositra.
10:34
And these tin particles were deposited on the tape heads
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Čestice kositra hvatale su se na glave traka
10:37
and were crashing the tape heads.
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i uništavale su ih.
10:40
So they reformulated the bactericide.
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Na kraju su osmislili novu formulu baktericida.
10:43
But what's interesting to me
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Ono što mi je zanimljivo
10:45
is that this was the first case
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jest da je to bio prvi slučaj
10:47
of a mechanical device
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da je mehanički uređaj
10:49
suffering, at least indirectly, from a human disease.
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patio, barem neizravno, od ljudske bolesti.
10:52
So it shows that we're really all in this together.
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Vidimo da smo svi zajedno u ovome.
10:55
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
10:57
In fact, it also shows something interesting,
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Vidimo, zapravo, nešto zanimljivo,
11:00
that although our capabilities and technology
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da iako su se naše sposobnosti i tehnologija
11:03
have been expanding geometrically,
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geometrijski širile,
11:05
unfortunately, our ability to model their long-term behavior,
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nažalost, naša sposobnost da na njih dugoročno utječemo,
11:08
which has also been increasing,
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koja se također povećava,
11:10
has been increasing only arithmetically.
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povećava se samo aritmetički.
11:13
So one of the characteristic problems of our time
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Jedan od karakterističnih problema našeg vremena
11:16
is how to close this gap
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jest kako da popunimo tu prazninu
11:18
between capabilities and foresight.
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između sposobnosti i predviđanja.
11:21
One other very positive consequence
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No, druga vrlo pozitivna posljedica
11:24
of 20th century technology, though,
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tehnologije 20. stoljeća
11:27
was the way in which other kinds of calamities
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bio je način na koji su druge nesreće
11:31
could lead to positive advances.
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mogle dovesti do pozitivnih pomaka.
11:34
There are two historians of business
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Postoje dva povjesničara poslovanja
11:37
at the University of Maryland,
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na Sveučilištu u Marylandu,
11:39
Brent Goldfarb and David Kirsch,
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Brent Goldfarb i David Kirsch,
11:41
who have done some extremely interesting work,
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koji imaju iznimno zanimljive radove,
11:43
much of it still unpublished,
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mahom još neobjavljene,
11:46
on the history of major innovations.
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o povijesti velikih inovacija.
11:48
They have combined the list of major innovations,
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Sastavili su popis najvećih inovacija
11:51
and they've discovered that the greatest number, the greatest decade,
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i otkrili su da je najveći broj, najveće desetljeće,
11:54
for fundamental innovations,
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za temeljne inovacije,
11:56
as reflected in all of the lists that others have made --
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kao što se vidi na svim popisima koje su radili drugi --
12:00
a number of lists that they have merged --
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popisima koje su sjedinili --
12:02
was the Great Depression.
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bilo razdoblje Velike depresije.
12:05
And nobody knows just why this was so,
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Nitko ne zna zašto je to bilo tako,
12:08
but one story can reflect something of it.
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ali jedna priča može to djelomično objasniti.
12:11
It was the origin of the Xerox copier,
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Radi se o nastanku fotokopirnog aparata Xerox,
12:14
which celebrated its 50th anniversary
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koji je prošle godine proslavio
12:17
last year.
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50. obljetnicu.
12:19
And Chester Carlson, the inventor,
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Chester Carlson, njegov izumitelj,
12:24
was a patent attorney.
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bio je odvjetnik za patente.
12:27
He really was not intending
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Nije imao nikakvu namjeru
12:30
to work in patent research,
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raditi na istraživanju patenata,
12:32
but he couldn't really find an alternative technical job.
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ali nije mogao pronaći nikakav drugi tehnički posao.
12:36
So this was the best job he could get.
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Tako da je to bio najbolji posao koji je mogao dobiti.
12:38
He was upset by the low quality and high cost
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Uzrujavala ga je slaba kvaliteta i visoke cijene
12:42
of existing patent reproductions,
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postojećih reprodukcija patenata
12:45
and so he started to develop
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pa je počeo razvijati
12:48
a system of dry photocopying,
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sustav suhog fotokopiranja,
12:51
which he patented in the late 1930s --
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koji je patentirao krajem 1930-ih godina --
12:54
and which became the first dry photocopier
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i koji je postao prvi suhi fotokopirni aparat
12:58
that was commercially practical
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koji je bio praktičan za komercijalnu primjenu
13:00
in 1960.
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1960. godine.
13:02
So we see that sometimes,
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Vidimo da ponekad,
13:04
as a result of these dislocations,
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kao posljedica promjene lokacije,
13:06
as a result of people
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kao posljedica nečijeg
13:08
leaving their original intended career
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napuštanja prvotnog zanimanja
13:11
and going into something else
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i početka bavljenjem nečim drugim,
13:13
where their creativity could make a difference,
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gdje će njihova kreativnost moći imati utjecaja,
13:15
that depressions
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vidimo da gospodarske krize
13:17
and all kinds of other unfortunate events
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i razni drugi nesretni događaji
13:20
can have a paradoxically stimulating effect
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mogu imati paradoksalno stimulativan učinak
13:23
on creativity.
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na kreativnost.
13:25
What does this mean?
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Što to znači?
13:27
It means, I think,
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Znači, mislim,
13:29
that we're living in a time of unexpected possibilities.
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da živimo u vrijeme neočekivanih mogućnosti.
13:31
Think of the financial world, for example.
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Uzmimo, primjerice, svijet financija.
13:34
The mentor of Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham,
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Mentor Warrena Buffeta, Benjamin Graham,
13:37
developed his system of value investing
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razvio je svoj sustav vrijednosnih ulaganja
13:42
as a result of his own losses
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nakon što je sam pretrpio neke gubitke
13:44
in the 1929 crash.
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u krizi 1929. godine.
13:46
And he published that book
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Objavio je tu knjigu
13:48
in the early 1930s,
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početkom 1930-ih
13:51
and the book still exists in further editions
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i knjiga i danas postoji u novim izdanjima
13:53
and is still a fundamental textbook.
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i još uvijek se smatra osnovnim udžbenikom.
13:55
So many important creative things can happen
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Toliko se važnih kreativnih stvari može dogoditi
13:59
when people learn from disasters.
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kad ljudi nešto nauče iz katastrofa.
14:02
Now think of the large and small plagues that we have now --
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Sjetimo se velikih i malih pošasti koje imamo danas --
14:06
bed bugs, killer bees, spam --
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stjenice, pčele ubojice, spam --
14:11
and it's very possible that the solutions to those
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i sasvim je moguće da će se rješenja tih problema
14:14
will really extend well beyond the immediate question.
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proširiti mnogo dalje od trenutnih problema.
14:17
If we think, for example, of Louis Pasteur,
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Ako se sjetimo, primjerice, Louisa Pasteura,
14:20
who in the 1860s
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kojeg su 1860-ih
14:22
was asked to study
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tražili da prouči
14:24
the diseases of silk worms for the silk industry,
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bolesti dudovih svilaca za industriju svile,
14:28
and his discoveries were really the beginning
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njegova su otkrića zapravo bila početak
14:31
of the germ theory of disease.
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teorije klica bolesti.
14:33
So very often, some kind of disaster --
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Dakle, vrlo često neka katastrofa --
14:36
sometimes the consequence, for example,
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ponekad posljedica, primjerice,
14:39
of over-cultivation of silk worms,
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pretjeranog uzgoja dudovih svilaca,
14:42
which was a problem in Europe at the time --
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što je u to vrijeme bio problem u Europi --
14:44
can be the key to something much bigger.
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može biti ključ nečeg mnogo većeg.
14:46
So this means
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To, dakle, znači
14:48
that we need to take a different view
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da trebamo iz drugog kuta
14:50
of unintended consequences.
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sagledati nenamjerne posljedice.
14:52
We need to take a really positive view.
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Moramo imati zaista pozitivnu perspektivu.
14:55
We need to see what they can do for us.
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Moram vidjeti što one mogu učiniti za nas.
14:58
We need to learn
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Moramo učiti
15:00
from those figures that I mentioned.
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iz tih brojeva koje sam spomenuo.
15:02
We need to learn, for example, from Dr. Cushing,
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Moramo učiti, na primjer, od dr. Cushinga,
15:05
who killed patients
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koje je ubijao pacijente
15:07
in the course of his early operations.
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na svojim prvim operacijama.
15:09
He had to have some errors. He had to have some mistakes.
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Morao je napraviti neke propuste. Morao je napraviti neke progreške.
15:12
And he learned meticulously from his mistakes.
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Ali revno je učio iz svojih pogrešaka.
15:15
And as a result,
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Posljedica toga je da,
15:17
when we say, "This isn't brain surgery,"
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kad kažemo "Nije to neurokirurgija",
15:20
that pays tribute to how difficult it was
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time odajemo počast tome koliko je bilo teško
15:23
for anyone to learn from their mistakes
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učiti iz svojih pogrešaka
15:25
in a field of medicine
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na području medicine
15:27
that was considered so discouraging in its prospects.
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koje nije imalo pretjerano dobre izglede za razvoj.
15:30
And we can also remember
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Možemo se sjetiti
15:33
how the pharmaceutical companies
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i kako su farmaceutske tvrke
15:35
were willing to pool their knowledge,
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bile voljne udružiti svoje znanje,
15:37
to share their knowledge,
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dijeliti svoje znanje,
15:39
in the face of an emergency,
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u hitnoj situaciji,
15:41
which they hadn't really been for years and years.
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što zapravo godinama nisu radili.
15:44
They might have been able to do it earlier.
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Možda su to mogli i ranije učiniti.
15:47
The message, then, for me,
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Mislim da bi poruka u vezi
15:50
about unintended consequences
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nenamjernih posljedica bila
15:52
is chaos happens;
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da se kaos događa;
15:55
let's make better use of it.
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iskoristimo ga bolje.
15:57
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam puno.
15:59
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Edward Tenner - Historian of technology and cultureEdward Tenner is an independent writer, speaker, and editor analyzing the cultural aspects of technological change.
Why you should listen
Edward Tenner is an independent writer and speaker on the history of technology and the unintended consequences of innovation. He writes for The Atlantic on history and current events, and was a founding advisor of Smithsonian's Lemelson Center, where he remains a senior research associate. He was executive editor for physical science and history at Princeton University Press, he has been a visiting lecturer at Princeton and has held visiting research positions at the Institute for Advanced Study, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and the Princeton Center for Information Technology Policy. He is now a visiting scholar in the Rutgers School of Communication and Information and an affiliate of the Center for Arts and Cultural Policy of Princeton's Woodrow Wilson School.
Edward Tenner | Speaker | TED.com