TED2018
Kate Raworth: A healthy economy should be designed to thrive, not grow
凯特 · 拉沃思: 健康的经济应该以繁荣为目的，而不只是增长
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一个可持续的，让大众受益的经济应该是什么样的？"就像一个甜甜圈，"牛津大学经济学家凯特 · 拉沃思如是说。在这个令人大开眼界的演讲中，她解释了我们该如何让各国摆脱困境——人民缺乏生活必需品的困境——并在地球的生态界限以内创造可再生的分配式经济。
Kate Raworth - Renegade economist
Kate Raworth is passionate about making economics fit for the 21st century. Full bio
Kate Raworth is passionate about making economics fit for the 21st century. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Have you ever watched
a baby learning to crawl?
a baby learning to crawl?
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你看过婴儿学习爬行吗？
00:16
Because as any
parent knows, it's gripping.
parent knows, it's gripping.
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就像每个父母都知道的，
它扣人心弦。
它扣人心弦。
开始，他们在地板上扭来扭去，
00:19
First, they wriggle about on the floor,
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通常是向后挪动，
00:21
usually backwards,
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然后他们把自己往前拖，
00:22
but then they drag themselves forwards,
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再用力向上拉，让自己站起来，
00:24
and then they pull themselves up to stand,
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大家一起鼓掌。
00:27
and we all clap.
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这种向前、向上的简单运动，
00:29
And that simple motion
of forwards and upwards,
of forwards and upwards,
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是我们人类认识到的
最基本的进步方向。
最基本的进步方向。
00:33
it's the most basic direction
of progress we humans recognize.
of progress we humans recognize.
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00:38
We tell it in our story
of evolution as well,
of evolution as well,
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我们的进化理论也这么说，
从我们摇晃前行的祖先到
终于站立行走的直立人，
终于站立行走的直立人，
00:40
from our lolloping ancestors
to Homo erectus, finally upright,
to Homo erectus, finally upright,
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到智人，我们一直被称为人类，
00:44
to Homo sapiens, depicted, always a man,
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一直在前进。
00:48
always mid-stride.
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00:51
So no wonder we so readily believe
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因此，难怪我们很容易相信，
经济发展将呈现同样的形态，
00:54
that economic progress
will take this very same shape,
will take this very same shape,
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这种不断上升的增长趋势。
00:57
this ever-rising line of growth.
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01:02
It's time to think again,
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现在是时候重新想一想了，
重新构想进步的形态，
01:04
to reimagine the shape of progress,
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01:08
because today, we have economies
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因为今天，我们拥有的经济
是需要增长的经济，
而不管它能否让我们繁荣，
而不管它能否让我们繁荣，
01:11
that need to grow,
whether or not they make us thrive,
whether or not they make us thrive,
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01:16
and what we need,
especially in the richest countries,
especially in the richest countries,
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而我们需要的，尤其是
在最富裕的国家，
在最富裕的国家，
是那种能让我们繁荣的经济，
01:20
are economies that make us thrive
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而无论它们是否增长。
01:22
whether or not they grow.
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是的，这话说着轻巧，
01:24
Yes, it's a little flippant word
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它隐藏了心态的深刻转变，
01:27
hiding a profound shift in mindset,
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但我相信，如果我们人类
01:30
but I believe this is the shift
we need to make
we need to make
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01:33
if we, humanity, are going to thrive
here together this century.
here together this century.
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想在本世纪共同繁荣起来，
就需要这个转变。
就需要这个转变。
01:38
So where did this obsession
with growth come from?
with growth come from?
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那么，这种对增长的
迷恋到底从何而来?
迷恋到底从何而来?
01:41
Well, GDP, gross domestic product,
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GDP，国内生产总值，
它只是一个经济体在一年内
01:43
it's just the total cost
of goods and services
of goods and services
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销售的商品和服务的总成本。
01:46
sold in an economy in a year.
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它诞生于20世纪30年代，
01:48
It was invented in the 1930s,
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但很快就成为
制定政策的首要目标，
制定政策的首要目标，
01:50
but it very soon became
the overriding goal of policymaking,
the overriding goal of policymaking,
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以至于直到今天，在最富裕的国家，
01:54
so much so that even today,
in the richest of countries,
in the richest of countries,
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政府仍然认为解决
经济问题的办法在于
经济问题的办法在于
01:57
governments think that the solution
to their economic problems
to their economic problems
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02:00
lies in more growth.
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更多的增长。
02:03
Just how that happened
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之所以这样，
在1960年W.W.罗斯托的
经典中做出了最好的说明。
经典中做出了最好的说明。
02:05
is best told through
the 1960 classic by W.W. Rostow.
the 1960 classic by W.W. Rostow.
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太喜欢它了，
我有一本首发版的。
我有一本首发版的。
02:10
I love it so much,
I have a first-edition copy.
I have a first-edition copy.
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02:16
"The Stages of Economic Growth:
A Non-Communist Manifesto."
A Non-Communist Manifesto."
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《经济增长的阶段：非共产主义宣言》
（笑声）
02:21
(Laughter)
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能闻到政治的味道，是不是?
02:23
You can just smell the politics, huh?
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罗斯托告诉我们，所有的经济体
02:25
And Rostow tells us that all economies
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都需要经历五个增长阶段：
02:28
need to pass through
five stages of growth:
five stages of growth:
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首先，传统社会阶段，
一个国家的产出
一个国家的产出
02:30
first, traditional society,
where a nation's output is limited
where a nation's output is limited
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受到其技术、制度和
思维方式的限制；
思维方式的限制；
02:34
by its technology,
its institutions and mindset;
its institutions and mindset;
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然后，在起飞准备阶段，
02:37
but then the preconditions for takeoff,
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出现了新兴的银行业、
02:39
where we get the beginnings
of a banking industry,
of a banking industry,
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劳动的机械化、
02:42
the mechanization of work
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以及一个信念——
增长的必要已超越增长本身，
增长的必要已超越增长本身，
02:43
and the belief that growth is necessary
for something beyond itself,
for something beyond itself,
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比如增长是为了国家尊严，
为了下一代的生活更美好，
为了下一代的生活更美好，
02:47
like national dignity
or a better life for the children;
or a better life for the children;
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之后是起飞阶段，
此时复利深入经济体制，
此时复利深入经济体制，
02:51
then takeoff, where compound interest
is built into the economy's institutions
is built into the economy's institutions
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增长成为常态；
02:57
and growth becomes the normal condition;
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第四是趋于成熟阶段，
你可以拥有任何你想要的行业，
你可以拥有任何你想要的行业，
03:00
fourth is the drive to maturity
where you can have any industry you want,
where you can have any industry you want,
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不管你的自然资源基础如何；
03:03
no matter your natural resource base;
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第五个也是最后一个阶段，
大规模消费的时代，
大规模消费的时代，
03:05
and the fifth and final stage,
the age of high-mass consumption
the age of high-mass consumption
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人们可以买到想要的所有消费品，
03:10
where people can buy
all the consumer goods they want,
all the consumer goods they want,
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比如自行车和缝纫机——
03:12
like bicycles and sewing machines --
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别忘了，那是1960年。
03:14
this was 1960, remember.
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03:17
Well, you can hear the implicit
airplane metaphor in this story,
airplane metaphor in this story,
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你能在这里听出隐含的飞机比喻，
03:23
but this plane is like no other,
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但是这架飞机是独一无二的，
03:27
because it can never be allowed to land.
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因为它永远不可以着陆。
03:30
Rostow left us flying
into the sunset of mass consumerism,
into the sunset of mass consumerism,
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罗斯托任我们飞向
大规模消费主义的落日，
大规模消费主义的落日，
03:35
and he knew it.
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而且他知道这一点。
03:37
As he wrote,
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正如他所写的，
03:39
"And then the question beyond,
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“然后，有一个问题，
03:43
where history offers us only fragments.
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历史没有给我们提供多少信息。
03:47
What to do when the increase
in real income itself loses its charm?"
in real income itself loses its charm?"
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当实际收入增长本身失去
吸引力时，该怎么办?”
吸引力时，该怎么办?”
03:54
He asked that question,
but he never answered it, and here's why.
but he never answered it, and here's why.
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这是他问的问题，但他从来
没回答过，原因如下。
没回答过，原因如下。
那一年是1960年，
03:58
The year was 1960,
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他是总统候选人约翰·肯尼迪的顾问，
03:59
he was an advisor to the presidential
candidate John F. Kennedy,
candidate John F. Kennedy,
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肯尼迪在竞选时承诺了5%的增长，
04:03
who was running for election
on the promise of five-percent growth,
on the promise of five-percent growth,
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所以罗斯托的工作是让
那架飞机一直飞，
那架飞机一直飞，
04:07
so Rostow's job was
to keep that plane flying,
to keep that plane flying,
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而不要问是否可以着陆、
如何着陆、何时着陆。
如何着陆、何时着陆。
04:09
not to ask if, how, or when
it could ever be allowed to land.
it could ever be allowed to land.
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04:16
So here we are, flying into the sunset
of mass consumerism
of mass consumerism
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因此，半个多世纪以来，
我们一路飞向大规模
我们一路飞向大规模
04:20
over half a century on,
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消费主义的夕阳，
04:22
with economies that have come
to expect, demand and depend upon
to expect, demand and depend upon
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经济已经变成期待、
要求，并依赖于
要求，并依赖于
无止境的增长，
04:27
unending growth,
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因为我们在经济上、政治上和
社会上都沉迷于这种增长。
社会上都沉迷于这种增长。
04:29
because we're financially,
politically and socially addicted to it.
politically and socially addicted to it.
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04:34
We're financially addicted to growth,
because today's financial system
because today's financial system
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我们在经济上沉迷于增长，
因为今天的金融体系
因为今天的金融体系
旨在追求最高的货币回报率，
04:38
is designed to pursue
the highest rate of monetary return,
the highest rate of monetary return,
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使上市公司承受持续的压力，
04:41
putting publicly traded companies
under constant pressure
under constant pressure
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去实现销售增长、
市场份额增长和利润增长，
市场份额增长和利润增长，
04:45
to deliver growing sales,
growing market share and growing profits,
growing market share and growing profits,
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并且因为银行创造资金
用作有利息的债务，
用作有利息的债务，
04:48
and because banks create money
as debt bearing interest,
as debt bearing interest,
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而债务必须用更多的钱去偿还。
04:52
which must be repaid with more.
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04:54
We're politically addicted to growth
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我们在政治上沉迷于经济增长，
因为政客们希望
在不涨税率的情况下
在不涨税率的情况下
04:55
because politicians
want to raise tax revenue
want to raise tax revenue
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增加税收，
04:58
without raising taxes
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而GDP增长似乎是实现
这一目标的可靠途径。
这一目标的可靠途径。
04:59
and a growing GDP
seems a sure way to do that.
seems a sure way to do that.
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没有哪个政客愿意在20国集团的
全家福中失去自己的位置。
全家福中失去自己的位置。
05:02
And no politician wants to lose
their place in the G-20 family photo.
their place in the G-20 family photo.
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05:06
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
如果他们的经济停止增长而
其他国家继续前进，
其他国家继续前进，
05:07
But if their economy stops growing
while the rest keep going,
while the rest keep going,
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那么他们将被下一个
新兴的经济强国淘汰。
新兴的经济强国淘汰。
05:11
well, they'll be booted out
by the next emerging powerhouse.
by the next emerging powerhouse.
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我们还在社会上迷恋经济增长，
05:14
And we are socially addicted to growth,
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这是因为上百年的消费者宣传，
05:16
because thanks to a century
of consumer propaganda,
of consumer propaganda,
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神奇的是，它是由
西格蒙德 · 弗洛伊德的侄子
西格蒙德 · 弗洛伊德的侄子
05:20
which fascinatingly
was created by Edward Bernays,
was created by Edward Bernays,
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爱德华 · 伯奈斯发明的，
05:23
the nephew of Sigmund Freud,
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他意识到他叔叔的心理治疗
05:26
who realized that
his uncle's psychotherapy
his uncle's psychotherapy
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可以变成非常
有利可图的购物疗法，
有利可图的购物疗法，
05:29
could be turned into
very lucrative retail therapy
very lucrative retail therapy
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只要能说服我们相信，
每次购买更多的东西时，
每次购买更多的东西时，
05:32
if we could be convinced
to believe that we transform ourselves
to believe that we transform ourselves
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我们都在转化自己。
05:37
every time we buy something more.
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05:41
None of these addictions
are insurmountable,
are insurmountable,
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这些沉迷都不是无法克服的，
但它们都应该得到
比现在更多的关注，
比现在更多的关注，
05:44
but they all deserve far more attention
than they currently get,
than they currently get,
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因为看看这段旅程将
带我们走向何方吧。
带我们走向何方吧。
05:48
because look where this journey
has been taking us.
has been taking us.
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全球GDP是1950年的10倍，
05:50
Global GDP is 10 times bigger
than it was in 1950
than it was in 1950
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这一增长给数十亿人带来了发展，
05:55
and that increase has brought
prosperity to billions of people,
prosperity to billions of people,
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05:59
but the global economy
has also become incredibly divisive,
has also become incredibly divisive,
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但全球经济也变得
令人难以置信地分裂，
令人难以置信地分裂，
现在财富回报的巨大份额
06:04
with the vast share of returns to wealth
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累积到全球1%的一小部分上。
06:06
now accruing to a fraction
of the global one percent.
of the global one percent.
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并且经济已经恶化到了
令人难以置信的程度，
令人难以置信的程度，
06:10
And the economy has become
incredibly degenerative,
incredibly degenerative,
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迅速破坏着我们所有人
赖以生存的这个微妙平衡着的
赖以生存的这个微妙平衡着的
06:14
rapidly destabilizing
this delicately balanced planet
this delicately balanced planet
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06:19
on which all of our lives depend.
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星球的稳定。
06:22
Our politicians know it, and so they offer
new destinations for growth.
new destinations for growth.
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政客们知道这一点，因此
他们为经济增长设定了新目标。
他们为经济增长设定了新目标。
你可以实现绿色增长、包容性增长、
06:26
You can have green growth,
inclusive growth,
inclusive growth,
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智能、弹性、均衡的增长。
06:28
smart, resilient, balanced growth.
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06:30
Choose any future you want
so long as you choose growth.
so long as you choose growth.
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只要你选择增长，就可以选择
任何你想要的未来。
任何你想要的未来。
06:35
I think it's time to choose
a higher ambition, a far bigger one,
a higher ambition, a far bigger one,
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我认为，是时候选择一个
更高、更大的目标了，
更高、更大的目标了，
因为人类在21世纪的
挑战是明确的：
挑战是明确的：
06:40
because humanity's
21st century challenge is clear:
21st century challenge is clear:
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在这个非凡的、独特的、
鲜活的星球上，
鲜活的星球上，
06:44
to meet the needs of all people
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06:47
within the means of this
extraordinary, unique, living planet
extraordinary, unique, living planet
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满足每一个人的需要，
这样我们和自然界的
其他部分才能共同繁荣。
其他部分才能共同繁荣。
06:51
so that we and the rest
of nature can thrive.
of nature can thrive.
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06:56
Progress on this goal isn't going
to be measured with the metric of money.
to be measured with the metric of money.
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这一目标的进展不会用
金钱标准来衡量。
金钱标准来衡量。
我们需要一个指示板。
06:59
We need a dashboard of indicators.
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当我坐下来试着画出它的样子时，
07:02
And when I sat down to try and draw
a picture of what that might look like,
a picture of what that might look like,
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虽然听起来很奇怪，
07:06
strange though this is going to sound,
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但它看起来很像甜甜圈。
07:08
it came out looking like a doughnut.
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07:12
I know, I'm sorry,
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我知道（这是个不太严肃的描述），抱歉，
但是让我来介绍一下这个
07:13
but let me introduce you
to the one doughnut
to the one doughnut
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可能会对我们有好处的甜甜圈。
07:15
that might actually turn out
to be good for us.
to be good for us.
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想象一下人类的资源利用
从中间向外加大。
从中间向外加大。
07:18
So imagine humanity's resource use
radiating out from the middle.
radiating out from the middle.
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中间的那个洞是
07:21
That hole in the middle is a place
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人们缺乏生活必需品的地方。
07:23
where people are falling short
on life's essentials.
on life's essentials.
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他们没有食物、医疗、教育、
政治话语权、住房，
政治话语权、住房，
07:25
They don't have the food, health care,
education, political voice, housing
education, political voice, housing
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这些为了有尊严有机会的生存，
每个人都需要的东西。
每个人都需要的东西。
07:29
that every person needs
for a life of dignity and opportunity.
for a life of dignity and opportunity.
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我们想让每个人都从这个洞中
走出来，迈过社会基础线，
走出来，迈过社会基础线，
07:33
We want to get everybody out of the hole,
over the social foundation
over the social foundation
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进入绿色甜甜圈里面。
07:36
and into that green doughnut itself.
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07:39
But, and it's a big but,
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但是，这是个很严肃的但是，
07:43
we cannot let our collective resource use
overshoot that outer circle,
overshoot that outer circle,
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不能让总的资源利用超出外圈，
即生态上限，
07:48
the ecological ceiling,
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因为上限表示，我们给这个
非凡的星球施加了太多压力，
非凡的星球施加了太多压力，
07:49
because there we put so much pressure
on this extraordinary planet
on this extraordinary planet
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以至于开始破坏它的平衡了。
07:53
that we begin to kick it out of kilter.
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我们造成了气候的破坏，
我们使海洋酸化，
我们使海洋酸化，
07:55
We cause climate breakdown,
we acidify the oceans,
we acidify the oceans,
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臭氧层上出现了一个洞，
07:58
a hole in the ozone layer,
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把我们自己推出了
08:00
pushing ourselves
beyond the planetary boundaries
beyond the planetary boundaries
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08:03
of the life-supporting systems
that have for the last 11,000 years
that have for the last 11,000 years
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生命维持系统的星球边界之外，
而正是这个系统，
而正是这个系统，
08:08
made earth such a benevolent
home to humanity.
home to humanity.
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用过去的11000年，
让地球成为了人类的美好家园。
让地球成为了人类的美好家园。
08:13
So this double-sided challenge
to meet the needs of all
to meet the needs of all
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因此，要在星球所能承受的范围内
满足地球上所有人的需要，
满足地球上所有人的需要，
这一双重挑战，
08:15
within the means of the planet,
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要求出现一种新的发展形态，
08:17
it invites a new shape of progress,
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不再是这种持续上升的增长线，
08:19
no longer this ever-rising line of growth,
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而是人类生存的最佳点，
08:22
but a sweet spot for humanity,
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在基础线与上限之间的
动态平衡中蓬勃发展。
动态平衡中蓬勃发展。
08:25
thriving in dynamic balance
between the foundation and the ceiling.
between the foundation and the ceiling.
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我一画出这幅画就恍然大悟，
08:30
And I was really struck
once I'd drawn this picture
once I'd drawn this picture
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08:32
to realize that the symbol of well-being
in many ancient cultures
in many ancient cultures
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因为在许多古代文化中，
幸福的象征符号
幸福的象征符号
反映了同样的动态平衡感，
08:37
reflects this very same sense
of dynamic balance,
of dynamic balance,
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从毛利人的高兰吉
08:40
from the Maori Takarangi
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到道教的阴阳、佛教的无止尽结，
08:42
to the Taoist Yin Yang,
the Buddhist endless knot,
the Buddhist endless knot,
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凯尔特人的双螺旋。
08:44
the Celtic double spiral.
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08:47
So can we find this dynamic balance
in the 21st century?
in the 21st century?
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那么，我们能否在21世纪
找到这种动态平衡呢?
找到这种动态平衡呢?
08:52
Well, that's a key question,
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这是个关键问题，
因为正如这些红色楔形所示，
我们现在远没有达到平衡，
我们现在远没有达到平衡，
08:54
because as these red wedges show,
right now we are far from balanced,
right now we are far from balanced,
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同时存在短缺和过量。
08:58
falling short and overshooting
at the same time.
at the same time.
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看看这个洞，你会发现世界上
数百万或数十亿人
数百万或数十亿人
09:02
Look in that hole, you can see that
millions or billions of people worldwide
millions or billions of people worldwide
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仍然在最基本需求方面存在短缺。
09:05
still fall short
on their most basic of needs.
on their most basic of needs.
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09:09
And yet, we've already overshot at least
four of these planetary boundaries,
four of these planetary boundaries,
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然而，星球边界中的至少
四个方面已经出现了过量，
四个方面已经出现了过量，
导致面临不可逆转的影响，
包括气候失调和
包括气候失调和
09:13
risking irreversible impact
of climate breakdown
of climate breakdown
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生态系统崩溃。
09:17
and ecosystem collapse.
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09:20
This is the state of humanity
and our planetary home.
and our planetary home.
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这就是人类以及我们的
星球家园的现状。
星球家园的现状。
09:24
We, the people of the early 21st century,
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作为21世纪初的人类，
09:28
this is our selfie.
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这是我们的自拍照。
09:31
No economist from last century
saw this picture,
saw this picture,
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上个世纪的经济学家
都没见过这幅图，
都没见过这幅图，
那么为什么要假设
09:34
so why would we imagine
that their theories
that their theories
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他们的理论能应对挑战呢?
09:36
would be up for taking on its challenges?
172
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我们需要自己的想法，
09:38
We need ideas of our own,
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09:39
because we are the first
generation to see this
generation to see this
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因为我们是看到它的第一代人，
可能也是最后一代有机会
扭转这一局面的人。
扭转这一局面的人。
09:42
and probably the last with a real chance
of turning this story around.
of turning this story around.
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09:47
You see, 20th century economics assured us
that if growth creates inequality,
that if growth creates inequality,
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你看，20世纪的经济学向我们
保证，如果增长造成了不平等，
保证，如果增长造成了不平等，
不要试图重新分配，
09:51
don't try to redistribute,
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因为更多的增长
将会让一切恢复平衡。
将会让一切恢复平衡。
09:52
because more growth
will even things up again.
will even things up again.
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如果增长造成了污染，
09:54
If growth creates pollution,
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不要试图进行监管，也因为
更多的增长将把一切清理干净。
更多的增长将把一切清理干净。
09:56
don't try to regulate, because more growth
will clean things up again.
will clean things up again.
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3520
10:01
Except, it turns out, it doesn't,
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只是，事实证明，
这一断言并没有发生，
这一断言并没有发生，
也不会发生。
10:04
and it won't.
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我们需要创造一个能同时
解决短缺和过量问题的经济，
解决短缺和过量问题的经济，
10:05
We need to create economies that tackle
this shortfall and overshoot together,
this shortfall and overshoot together,
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要通过设计来实现。
10:09
by design.
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我们需要设计出
可再生和分配的经济。
可再生和分配的经济。
10:11
We need economies that are regenerative
and distributive by design.
and distributive by design.
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我们已经接手了衰退中的工业。
10:16
You see, we've inherited
degenerative industries.
degenerative industries.
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我们拿走地球的原材料，
把它变成我们想要的东西，
把它变成我们想要的东西，
10:18
We take earth's materials,
make them into stuff we want,
make them into stuff we want,
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使用一段时间，常常
只用一次，然后扔掉，
只用一次，然后扔掉，
10:21
use it for a while, often only once,
and then throw it away,
and then throw it away,
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这种行为正推动我们
超出星球界限，
超出星球界限，
10:25
and that is pushing us
over planetary boundaries,
over planetary boundaries,
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所以我们要让那些箭头拐回来,
10:28
so we need to bend those arrows around,
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创造出在生存环境内
有效且不出界的经济，
有效且不出界的经济，
10:30
create economies that work with and within
the cycles of the living world,
the cycles of the living world,
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让资源永远不会耗尽，
而是一次又一次地被反复使用，
而是一次又一次地被反复使用，
10:35
so that resources are never used up
but used again and again,
but used again and again,
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用阳光做动力运行的经济,
10:38
economies that run on sunlight,
193
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1976
一个过程的废料就是
下一个过程的原料。
下一个过程的原料。
10:40
where waste from one process
is food for the next.
is food for the next.
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这种可再生设计
正如雨后春笋般在各处涌现。
正如雨后春笋般在各处涌现。
10:43
And this kind of regenerative design
is popping up everywhere.
is popping up everywhere.
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从基多到奥斯陆，
从哈拉雷到霍巴特，
从哈拉雷到霍巴特，
10:47
Over a hundred cities worldwide,
from Quito to Oslo,
from Quito to Oslo,
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全球一百多个城市
10:50
from Harare to Hobart,
197
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已经有70%以上的电力
10:52
already generate more than 70 percent
of their electricity
of their electricity
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来自太阳、风和海浪。
10:56
from sun, wind and waves.
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像伦敦、格拉斯哥、阿姆斯特丹
这样的城市都是循环城市设计的先驱，
这样的城市都是循环城市设计的先驱，
10:58
Cities like London, Glasgow, Amsterdam
are pioneering circular city design,
are pioneering circular city design,
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他们想办法把一个过程的城市废料
11:03
finding ways to turn the waste
from one urban process
from one urban process
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变成下一个过程的原料。
11:07
into food for the next.
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从埃塞俄比亚的提格雷，
到澳大利亚的昆士兰，
到澳大利亚的昆士兰，
11:08
And from Tigray, Ethiopia
to Queensland, Australia,
to Queensland, Australia,
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农民和林业工人正在恢复
曾经贫瘠的土地，
曾经贫瘠的土地，
11:13
farmers and foresters are regenerating
once-barren landscapes
once-barren landscapes
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让它再次充满生机。
11:17
so that it teems with life again.
205
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11:20
But as well as being
regenerative by design,
regenerative by design,
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但是，除了有意实现再生之外，
我们的经济也必须有意实现分配，
11:22
our economies must be
distributive by design,
distributive by design,
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我们已具备前所未有的机会
去实现这一目标，
去实现这一目标，
11:26
and we've got unprecedented
opportunities for making that happen,
opportunities for making that happen,
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因为20世纪的中心化技术、
11:30
because 20th-century
centralized technologies,
centralized technologies,
209
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制度，
11:33
institutions,
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把财富、知识和权力
集中在了少数人手中。
集中在了少数人手中。
11:35
concentrated wealth,
knowledge and power in few hands.
knowledge and power in few hands.
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本世纪，我们可以
设计我们的技术和制度，
设计我们的技术和制度，
11:40
This century, we can design
our technologies and institutions
our technologies and institutions
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将财富、知识和权力分配给许多人。
11:44
to distribute wealth, knowledge
and empowerment to many.
and empowerment to many.
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不需要化石燃料能源和大规模制造，
11:48
Instead of fossil fuel energy
and large-scale manufacturing,
and large-scale manufacturing,
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3736
我们有可再生能源网络、
数字平台和3D打印。
数字平台和3D打印。
11:52
we've got renewable energy networks,
digital platforms and 3D printing.
digital platforms and 3D printing.
215
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11:57
200 years of corporate control
of intellectual property is being upended
of intellectual property is being upended
216
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4536
200年来，企业对知识产权的控制
正被自下而上的、开源的、
端对端知识共享所颠覆。
端对端知识共享所颠覆。
12:02
by the bottom-up, open-source,
peer-to-peer knowledge commons.
peer-to-peer knowledge commons.
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而那些仍在为股东追求
12:06
And corporations that still pursue
maximum rate of return
maximum rate of return
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12:09
for their shareholders,
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2296
回报率最大化的公司，
他们突然之间就显得有些过时了，
12:12
well they suddenly look rather out of date
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新的社会企业设计成能够
产生多种形式的价值，
产生多种形式的价值，
12:14
next to social enterprises
that are designed to generate
that are designed to generate
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被并将其与整个网络共享。
12:17
multiple forms of value and share it
with those throughout their networks.
with those throughout their networks.
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12:22
If we can harness today's technologies,
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如果我们能够利用今天的技术，
从人工智能到区块链，
12:25
from AI to blockchain
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2696
到物联网，再到材料科学，
12:27
to the Internet of Things
to material science,
to material science,
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如果我们能够利用这些服务
进行可分配设计，
进行可分配设计，
12:30
if we can harness these
in service of distributive design,
in service of distributive design,
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4296
就能确保医疗、教育、金融、
能源、政治话语权，
能源、政治话语权，
12:34
we can ensure that health care, education,
finance, energy, political voice
finance, energy, political voice
227
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4936
能被给予那些最需要它们的人。
12:39
reaches and empowers those people
who need it most.
who need it most.
228
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3280
12:43
You see, regenerative
and distributive design
and distributive design
229
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显然，可再生且可分配的设计
为21世纪的经济
创造了非凡的机会。
创造了非凡的机会。
12:46
create extraordinary opportunities
for the 21st-century economy.
for the 21st-century economy.
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3560
12:51
So where does this leave
Rostow's airplane ride?
Rostow's airplane ride?
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那么这对罗斯托的
飞机之旅有什么影响呢?
飞机之旅有什么影响呢?
对一些人来说，它仍然承载着
无限的绿色增长的希望，
无限的绿色增长的希望，
12:54
Well, for some it still carries
the hope of endless green growth,
the hope of endless green growth,
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这种想法认为，由于非物质化，
12:58
the idea that thanks to dematerialization,
233
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GDP的指数级增长可以永远
持续下去，资源消耗可以不断减少。
持续下去，资源消耗可以不断减少。
13:01
exponential GDP growth can go on forever
while resource use keeps falling.
while resource use keeps falling.
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4600
13:06
But look at the data.
This is a flight of fancy.
This is a flight of fancy.
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但是对比一下数据。
这只是异想天开罢了。
这只是异想天开罢了。
13:10
Yes, we need to dematerialize
our economies,
our economies,
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是的，我们需要让经济去物质化，
但是，对无止境增长的依赖
离不开对资源的利用，
离不开对资源的利用，
13:13
but this dependency on unending growth
cannot be decoupled from resource use
cannot be decoupled from resource use
237
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这种资源利用与把我们
安全带回地球边界内
安全带回地球边界内
13:17
on anything like the scale required
238
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2376
13:19
to bring us safely back
within planetary boundaries.
within planetary boundaries.
239
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2760
所需要的规模一样。
13:24
I know this way of thinking
about growth is unfamiliar,
about growth is unfamiliar,
240
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我知道这种思考增长的
方式听起来很陌生，
方式听起来很陌生，
因为增长是好事，不是吗?
13:26
because growth is good, no?
241
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我们希望我们的孩子成长，
我们的花园成长。
我们的花园成长。
13:28
We want our children to grow,
our gardens to grow.
our gardens to grow.
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是的，在大自然中，成长是
美妙、健康的生命源泉。
美妙、健康的生命源泉。
13:31
Yes, look to nature and growth
is a wonderful, healthy source of life.
is a wonderful, healthy source of life.
243
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它是一个阶段，但许多经济体，
比如今天的埃塞俄比亚和尼泊尔，
比如今天的埃塞俄比亚和尼泊尔，
13:36
It's a phase, but many economies
like Ethiopia and Nepal today
like Ethiopia and Nepal today
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可能正处于这个阶段。
13:40
may be in that phase.
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他们的经济正在
以每年7%的速度增长。
以每年7%的速度增长。
13:41
Their economies are growing
at seven percent a year.
at seven percent a year.
246
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13:45
But look again to nature,
247
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但是再看看大自然，
因为从你孩子的小脚丫。
脚到亚马逊的森林，
脚到亚马逊的森林，
13:47
because from your children's feet
to the Amazon forest,
to the Amazon forest,
248
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自然界中没有什么东西
是永远生长下去的。
是永远生长下去的。
13:51
nothing in nature grows forever.
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1936
事物生长，长大，然后成熟，
13:53
Things grow, and they grow up
and they mature,
and they mature,
250
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只有这样，
13:56
and it's only by doing so
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它们才能繁荣很长一段时间。
13:58
that they can thrive for a very long time.
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14:03
We already know this.
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我们还知道一点。
如果我告诉你，我的朋友去看医生，
14:05
If I told you my friend went to the doctor
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医生告诉她，身体里长了东西，
14:08
who told her she had a growth
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14:12
that feels very different,
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那就是完全另一回事了，
因为我们凭直觉就知道，当某种东西
14:14
because we intuitively understand
that when something tries to grow forever
that when something tries to grow forever
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试图在健康、活泼、旺盛的
体系中永远生长时，
体系中永远生长时，
14:18
within a healthy, living, thriving system,
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它就会威胁到整个体系的健康。
14:22
it's a threat to the health of the whole.
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14:25
So why would we imagine that our economies
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那么，我们为什么会认为，
我们的经济将是
一个能够改变这一规律
一个能够改变这一规律
14:27
would be the one system
that could buck this trend
that could buck this trend
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并永远增长的系统呢?
14:30
and succeed by growing forever?
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14:33
We urgently need financial,
political and social innovations
political and social innovations
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我们迫切需要金融、政治和社会创新，
使我们能够克服对增长的结构性依赖，
14:38
that enable us to overcome
this structural dependency on growth,
this structural dependency on growth,
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以便我们能够把重点放在甜甜圈的
14:42
so that we can instead
focus on thriving and balance
focus on thriving and balance
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14:48
within the social and the ecological
boundaries of the doughnut.
boundaries of the doughnut.
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社会和生态边界内的繁荣与平衡上。
14:53
And if the mere idea of boundaries
makes you feel, well, bounded,
makes you feel, well, bounded,
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如果仅仅是边界的概念
就让你觉得受到限制，
就让你觉得受到限制，
再仔细想一想。
14:59
think again.
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因为世界上最聪明的人
15:00
Because the world's most ingenious people
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都把界限变成了他们创造力的源泉。
15:03
turn boundaries into
the source of their creativity.
the source of their creativity.
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15:07
From Mozart on his five-octave piano
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从莫扎特的五音钢琴，
吉米 · 亨德里克斯的六弦吉他，
15:10
Jimi Hendrix on his six-string guitar,
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到塞雷娜 · 威廉姆斯的网球场，
15:13
Serena Williams on a tennis court,
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15:16
it's boundaries
that unleash our potential.
that unleash our potential.
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是边界激发了我们的潜能。
15:20
And the doughnut's boundaries unleash
the potential for humanity to thrive
the potential for humanity to thrive
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甜甜圈的边界释放了人类的潜力，
让人类在无限的创造力、参与、
归属感和意义下茁壮成长。
归属感和意义下茁壮成长。
15:25
with boundless creativity,
participation, belonging and meaning.
participation, belonging and meaning.
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15:32
It's going to take all the ingenuity
that we have got to get there,
that we have got to get there,
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它需要我们投入
全部的聪明才智去实现，
全部的聪明才智去实现，
所以，全力以赴吧。
15:37
so bring it on.
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谢谢。
15:38
Thank you.
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（掌声）
15:40
(Applause)
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Translated by Yan Gao
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Kate Raworth - Renegade economistKate Raworth is passionate about making economics fit for the 21st century.
Why you should listen
Kate Raworth writes: "I am a renegade economist, dedicated to rewriting economics so that it's fit for tackling the 21st century's grand challenge of meeting the needs of all people within the means of the planet. After 20 years of wrestling with policies based on outdated economic theories -- via the villages of Zanzibar to the headquarters of the UN and on the campaigning frontlines of Oxfam -- I realized that if the economic conversations taking place in parliaments, in boardrooms and in the media worldwide are going to change, then the fundamental economic ideas taught in schools and universities have to be transformed, too.
"I wrote Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st-Century Economist to be the book that I wish I could have read when I was a frustrated and disillusioned economics student myself. And silly though it sounds, it all starts with a doughnut (yes, the kind with a hole in the middle), which acts as a compass for 21st-century prosperity, inviting us to rethink what the economy is, and is for, who we are, and what success looks like."
Kate Raworth | Speaker | TED.com