TED2013
Elon Musk: The mind behind Tesla, SpaceX, SolarCity ...
埃隆·马斯克: 特斯拉（Tesla）、SpaceX、太阳城（SolarCity）背后的理念
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企业家 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）有着许多计划。他是 PayPal、Tesla Motors 和 SpaceX 的创始人，他与 TED 管理人 克里斯·安德森（Chris Anderson）同台，与大家分享他卓有远见的项目，其中包括大批量销售的电动能源汽车、太阳能出租公司和100%可循环使用的火箭。
Elon Musk - Serial entrepreneur
Elon Musk is the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors and the CEO/CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX). Full bio
Elon Musk is the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors and the CEO/CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX). Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
Chris Anderson: Elon, what kind of crazy dream
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克里斯特.安德森: 埃隆，怎样的疯狂梦想
00:19
would persuade you to think of trying
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会让你想去尝试
00:21
to take on the auto industry and build an all-electric car?
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从事汽车行业然后建造出全电动汽车的呢？
00:24
Elon Musk: Well, it goes back to when I was in university.
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埃隆.马斯克: 嗯，那是我还在上大学的时候。
00:28
I thought about, what are the problems that are most likely
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我当时在想，有哪些问题最可能
00:30
to affect the future of the world or the future of humanity?
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影响世界或人类的未来？
00:33
I think it's extremely important that we have sustainable transport
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我觉得拥有可持续的交通方式
00:37
and sustainable energy production.
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和可持续的能源生产是极其重要的。
00:39
That sort of overall sustainable energy problem
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那类有关于可持续能源的问题
00:41
is the biggest problem that we have to solve this century,
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是我们这个世纪需要解决的最大问题，
00:43
independent of environmental concerns.
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如果不考虑环境问题的话。
00:46
In fact, even if producing CO2 was good for the environment,
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实际上，即便CO2的产生对于环境是有好处的，
00:49
given that we're going to run out of hydrocarbons,
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假设我们将要耗尽碳氢化合物，
00:52
we need to find some sustainable means of operating.
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我们仍然需要找到一个可持续的运作方式。
00:56
CA: Most of American electricity comes from
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克里斯特.安德森：大多数美国的电力都来自于
01:00
burning fossil fuels.
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燃烧化石燃料。
01:01
How can an electric car that plugs into that electricity help?
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那么一个使用这一类电能的电动汽车又有什么用呢？
01:06
EM: Right. There's two elements to that answer.
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埃隆.马斯克：对。这个答案有两个要素。
01:09
One is that, even if you take the same source fuel
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一个是，即便你采用同一类燃料
01:12
and produce power at the power plant
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然后在发电厂发电
01:14
and use it to charge electric cars, you're still better off.
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并用它来给汽车充电，这仍会好很多。
01:17
So if you take, say, natural gas,
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因为如果你用，比如说，天然气吧，
01:19
which is the most prevalent hydrocarbon source fuel,
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这是最常见的碳氢化合物燃料，
01:21
if you burn that in a modern
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如果你在一部现代
01:24
General Electric natural gas turbine,
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通用电气天然气涡轮中燃烧它，
01:27
you'll get about 60 percent efficiency.
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你会得到60%的燃烧效率。
01:28
If you put that same fuel in an internal combustion engine car,
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如果你把它用在一个使用内燃机的汽车中，
01:31
you get about 20 percent efficiency.
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那你的使用效率只有大约20%。
01:33
And the reason is, in the stationary power plant,
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这个道理是这样的，在固定的发电站，
01:35
you can afford to have something that weighs a lot more,
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你可以支付得起更重的东西，
01:37
is voluminous,
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非常大量的，
01:39
and you can take the waste heat
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然后你可以利用余热
01:40
and run a steam turbine and generate
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发动蒸汽涡轮机接着进行二次发电。
01:41
a secondary power source.
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一个二次能源。
01:43
So in effect, even after you've taken transmission loss into account and everything,
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实际上，即使你将传输损耗等等一切也考虑进去，
01:47
even using the same source fuel, you're at least twice as better off
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就算使用同类的燃料，给一辆车充电至少要两倍优于
01:50
charging an electric car, then burning it at the power plant.
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你之后在发电站燃烧这些燃料。
01:53
CA: That scale delivers efficiency.
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克里斯特.安德森: 这个规模能够带来效率。
01:55
EM: Yes, it does.
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埃隆·马斯克: 是的，的确如此。
01:57
And then the other point is, we have to have sustainable means
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然后另外一点是，我们不论如何必须要有可以持续
02:00
of power generation anyway, electricity generation.
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生产能源的方法，发电。
02:02
So given that we have to solve sustainable electricity generation,
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所以假设我们必须解决可持续发电的问题，
02:05
then it makes sense for us to have electric cars
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那我们就理所当然要用电动车
02:09
as the mode of transport.
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作为交通方式。
02:11
CA: So we've got some video here
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克里斯.安德森：我们这里有一些
02:13
of the Tesla being assembled,
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正在组装 ‘特斯拉‘ （Telsa 电力车）的短片，
02:15
which, if we could play that first video --
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嗯，如果我们播放第一个视频的话 –
02:18
So what is innovative about this process in this vehicle?
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那这辆车的组装过程有什么创新之处呢？
02:23
EM: Sure. So, in order to accelerate the advent of electric transport,
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埃隆·马斯克: 当然。那么为了加快电力交通到来的步伐，
02:26
and I should say that I think, actually,
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我要说的是我个人认为，实际上，
02:29
all modes of transport will become fully electric
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所有的交通方式都会变成全电力驱动的，
02:31
with the ironic exception of rockets.
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讽刺的是，除了火箭以外。
02:36
There's just no way around Newton's third law.
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因为实在是没有办法可以绕开牛顿第三定律。
02:39
The question is how do you accelerate
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问题是怎么加快
02:42
the advent of electric transport?
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电动交通到来的步伐呢？
02:44
And in order to do that for cars, you have to come up with
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为了让小车更快的全电动化，人们要发明出
02:46
a really energy efficient car,
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一种真正节能的车，
02:49
so that means making it incredibly light,
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也就是说这个车要难以置信地轻巧，
02:50
and so what you're seeing here
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你现在所看到的
02:52
is the only all-aluminum body and chassis car
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是在北美制造的
02:54
made in North America.
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唯一一个全铝车身和车底盘。
02:56
In fact, we applied a lot of rocket design techniques
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其实，我们用了非常多的火箭设计技术
02:59
to make the car light despite having a very large battery pack.
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来减轻车身重量，即便还装有一个很大的电池组。
03:02
And then it also has the lowest drag coefficient
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然后它的阻力系数是
03:04
of any car of its size.
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相同大小车型当中最低的。
03:06
So as a result, the energy usage is very low,
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所以，它的能耗也非常低的，
03:09
and it has the most advanced battery pack,
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它的电池组也是最先进的，
03:12
and that's what gives it the range that's competitive,
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正因为如此它的行驶里程非常有竞争力，
03:14
so you can actually have on the order of a 250-mile range.
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因此它拥有行驶大概250英里的能力。
03:17
CA: I mean, those battery packs are incredibly heavy,
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克里斯·安德森: 我是说，那些电池组特别的重，
03:21
but you think the math can still work out intelligently --
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但是你认为通过数学计算还是能够巧妙解决问题的 –
03:24
by combining light body, heavy battery,
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就是通过组合轻的车身、重的电池，
03:26
you can still gain spectacular efficiency.
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最后你还是可以得到惊人的效率。
03:28
EM: Exactly. The rest of the car has to be very light
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埃隆·马斯克：正是这样。车的其他部分必须要很轻
03:30
to offset the mass of the pack,
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才能抵消电池组的质量，
03:32
and then you have to have a low drag coefficient so that you have good highway range.
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然后你必须要有很低的阻力系数这样才能达到良好的里程数。
03:35
And in fact, customers of the Model S
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事实上，S型号的客户
03:39
are sort of competing with each other
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都在相互竞争
03:40
to try to get the highest possible range.
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以获取可能的最高行程范围。
03:43
I think somebody recently got 420 miles out of a single charge.
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我知道有人近期已经实现了一次充电就可以跑420英里的效果。
03:46
CA: Bruno Bowden, who's here, did that,
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克里斯·安德森：布鲁诺.波登, 在座的这位，他做到了，
03:49
broke the world record.EM: Congratulations.
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他打破了世界纪录。埃隆·马斯克：恭喜。
03:52
CA: That was the good news. The bad news was that
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克里斯·安德森: 那是个好消息。坏消息是
03:54
to do it, he had to drive at 18 miles an hour constant speed
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为了达成目的，他必须要以每小时18英里的恒速行驶
03:56
and got pulled over by the cops. (Laughter)
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然后被警察拦下来。（笑）
04:00
EM: I mean, you can certainly drive --
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埃隆·马斯克：我是说，你当然可以开到 –
04:04
if you drive it 65 miles an hour,
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如果你开到每小时65英里，
04:07
under normal conditions,
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在正常情况下，
04:09
250 miles is a reasonable number.
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250英里是一个合理的数据。
04:11
CA: Let's show that second video
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克里斯·安德森：我们播一下第二个视频，
04:12
showing the Tesla in action on ice.
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是 Tesla 在雪地上运行的视频。
04:15
Not at all a dig at The New York Times, this, by the way.
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绝对不是挖苦纽约时报，这个，顺便说一下。
04:17
What is the most surprising thing about the experience
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关于驾驶体验最令人惊喜的
04:20
of driving the car?
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是什么？
04:21
EM: In creating an electric car,
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埃隆·马斯克: 创造一辆电动车的时候，
04:23
the responsiveness of the car is really incredible.
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这个车的反应能力是非常难以置信的。
04:25
So we wanted really to have people feel as though
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所以我们真想让人们觉得
04:28
they've almost got to mind meld with the car,
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他们和车的思想已经融汇到一起了，
04:30
so you just feel like you and the car are kind of one,
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所以你会觉得你和车已经合二为一了，
04:33
and as you corner and accelerate, it just happens,
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所以你要转弯和要加速的时候，它马上就会做到，
04:37
like the car has ESP.
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好像这个车有ESP（电子稳定程序）。
04:39
You can do that with an electric car because of its responsiveness.
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电动车能够做到这点是因为它有很好的反映能力。
04:42
You can't do that with a gasoline car.
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而汽油车是不行的。
04:44
I think that's really a profound difference,
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我觉得这真的是个很大的差别，
04:46
and people only experience that when they have a test drive.
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而人们只有在试驾的时候会感受到这个差别。
04:48
CA: I mean, this is a beautiful but expensive car.
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克里斯·安德森：我想说，这个是个很漂亮的车不过它也很贵。
04:53
Is there a road map where this becomes
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你有什么样的计划来让它变成
04:56
a mass-market vehicle?
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一种畅销车吗？
04:58
EM: Yeah. The goal of Tesla has always been
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埃隆·马斯克：是的。 实现Tesla 的目标需要
05:00
to have a sort of three-step process,
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有三个步骤，
05:03
where version one was an expensive car at low volume,
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首先是生产少批量昂贵的车型，
05:06
version two is medium priced and medium volume,
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然后第二是中批量的中等价位的车型，
05:10
and then version three would be low price, high volume.
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最后是低价高批量的车型。
05:12
So we're at step two at this point.
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我们现在正处在第二步骤。
05:13
So we had a $100,000 sports car, which was the Roadster.
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我们生产了10万美金的跑车，也就是 Roadster。
05:16
Then we've got the Model S, which starts at around 50,000 dollars.
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然后我们还有S型号，大概以5万美金起价。
05:19
And our third generation car, which should hopefully
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而我们的第三代车型，应该会在
05:22
be out in about three or four years
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大约3到4年发布出来，
05:23
will be a $30,000 car.
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定价是3万美金。
05:26
But whenever you've got really new technology,
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不过无论什么时候，你拥有真正的新技术，
05:28
it generally takes about three major versions
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大概都要设计出3种主要车型
05:30
in order to make it a compelling mass-market product.
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最有才能让它成为真正的畅销产品。
05:34
And so I think we're making progress in that direction,
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最后我觉得我们正在朝这个方向一直在进步，
05:36
and I feel confident that we'll get there.
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我也觉得有信心能够实现目标。
05:39
CA: I mean, right now, if you've got a short commute,
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克里斯·安德森：我想说，目前，如果通勤距离短的话，
05:41
you can drive, you can get back, you can charge it at home.
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你就可以开这个车，你可以回家，然后在家充电。
05:44
There isn't a huge nationwide network of charging stations now that are fast.
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目前全国范围内尚未普及一个庞大的快速充电站网络。
05:49
Do you see that coming, really, truly,
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你是否预见到这种网络的到来，真的，实实在在地预计到了，
05:51
or just on a few key routes?
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还是只是说在一些主要的道路上普及充电站？
05:54
EM: There actually are far more charging stations
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埃隆·马斯克：实际上充电站的数量
05:57
than people realize,
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要比人们知道的多得多，
05:59
and at Tesla we developed something
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而在 Tesla 我们研发了一种
06:01
called a Supercharging technology,
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叫做“超级充电”的技术，
06:03
and we're offering that if you buy a Model S
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而我们可以提供这个服务，如果你买了 S 型号，
06:07
for free, forever.
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而且是免费的，永久的。
06:08
And so this is something that maybe a lot of people don't realize.
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然后这可能是很多人都没有意识到的事情。
06:11
We actually have California and Nevada covered,
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我们其实已经在加州和内华达州都建设了网络，
06:14
and we've got the Eastern seaboard
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然后在东部滨海的
06:16
from Boston to D.C. covered.
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波士顿到华盛顿特区也都覆盖了。
06:18
By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive
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到今年底，你就可以
06:20
from L.A. to New York
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从洛杉矶开车到纽约了，
06:22
just using the Supercharger network,
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只需要使用超级充电网络就行，
06:23
which charges at five times the rate of anything else.
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它的充电速率是其他地方的五倍。
06:28
And the key thing is to have a ratio of drive to stop,
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然后关键的一点是要有一个开车与停车的比率，
06:32
to stop time, of about six or seven.
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停车的时间，这个比率大概是6到7这样。
06:35
So if you drive for three hours,
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所以如果你开了3个小时，
06:37
you want to stop for 20 or 30 minutes,
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你会想要停20到30分钟，
06:39
because that's normally what people will stop for.
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因为通常人们也会停这么久。
06:41
So if you start a trip at 9 a.m.,
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所以如果你早上9点开始开车，
06:43
by noon you want to stop to have a bite to eat,
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你中午也会想要停下来去吃午餐，
06:46
hit the restroom, coffee, and keep going.
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去上洗手间，喝咖啡，然后再继续开。
06:48
CA: So your proposition to consumers is, for the full charge, it could take an hour.
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克里斯·安德森：那你给消费者的提议是，为了充满电，大概需要一个小时的时间。
06:51
So it's common -- don't expect to be out of here in 10 minutes.
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这是正常情况 – 不要期待10分钟就可以冲完。
06:55
Wait for an hour, but the good news is,
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要等一个小时，不过好消息是，
06:57
you're helping save the planet,
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你为拯救地球除了一份力，
06:58
and by the way, the electricity is free. You don't pay anything.
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然后顺便说下，电是免费的。你不用花钱。
07:01
EM: Actually, what we're expecting is for people
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埃隆·马斯克：其实，我们想要做到的是，
07:03
to stop for about 20 to 30 minutes, not for an hour.
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让人们只等20到30分钟，而不是一小时。
07:07
It's actually better to drive for about maybe 160, 170 miles
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实际上开大概160、170英里
07:14
and then stop for half an hour
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然后停半个小时
07:16
and then keep going.
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再走会更好。
07:18
That's the natural cadence of a trip.
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这是一个比较自然的节奏。
07:21
CA: All right. So this is only one string to your energy bow.
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克里斯·安德森：好。那么这只是你在能源方面的一个优势。
07:25
You've been working on this solar company SolarCity.
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你其实还经营了一家太阳能公司“太阳城”。
07:28
What's unusual about that?
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那又有什么特别之处呢？
07:31
EM: Well, as I mentioned earlier,
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埃隆·马斯克：嗯，我刚刚说了，
07:33
we have to have sustainable electricity production
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我们耗电的同时必须要
07:37
as well as consumption,
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能可持续的发电，
07:38
so I'm quite confident that the primary means
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所以我相当确信首要的发电方式
07:42
of power generation will be solar.
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会是太阳能。
07:44
I mean, it's really indirect fusion, is what it is.
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我是说，它是一种间接的融合发电，是这样的。
07:47
We've got this giant fusion generator in the sky called the sun,
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我们在天上有一个巨大的融合发电器叫做太阳，
07:50
and we just need to tap a little bit of that energy
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而我们只需开采其中的一点点能源
07:53
for purposes of human civilization.
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来为人类文明服务。
07:56
What most people know but don't realize they know
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大部分人都知道却又没有意识到的是
07:58
is that the world is almost entirely solar-powered already.
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这个世界基本上早已全都依靠着太阳能发电了。
08:01
If the sun wasn't there, we'd be a frozen ice ball
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如果我们没有太阳，我们就会在3凯氏度下
08:04
at three degrees Kelvin,
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冻成了一个冰球，
08:07
and the sun powers the entire system of precipitation.
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而太阳它为整个降水系统提供了电力。
08:10
The whole ecosystem is solar-powered.
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整个生态系统都是靠太阳能发电的。
08:13
CA: But in a gallon of gasoline, you have,
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克里斯·安德森：但是在一加仑的汽油中，有，
08:15
effectively, thousands of years of sun power
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实际上，是在一个很小的空间当中
08:18
compressed into a small space,
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压缩了上千年积累而来的太阳能，
08:20
so it's hard to make the numbers work right now on solar,
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所以这个数据说明利用太阳能是有难度的，
08:23
and to remotely compete with, for example, natural gas,
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而且远远不能和，比如说，和天然气相提并论，
08:26
fracked natural gas. How are you going to build a business here?
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水力压裂开采的天然气。这样的话你怎么做生意呢？
08:29
EM: Well actually, I'm confident that solar
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埃隆·马斯克:嗯，其实，我还是很确信太阳能
08:33
will beat everything, hands down, including natural gas.
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会压倒一切，也容易开采，也比天然气更胜一筹。
08:36
(Applause)CA: How?
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（掌声）克里斯·安德森：怎么说？
08:39
EM: It must, actually. If it doesn't, we're in deep trouble.
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埃隆·马斯克：着肯定的，其实。如果它不是这样的话，那我们麻烦可就大了。
08:42
CA: But you're not selling solar panels to consumers.
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克里斯·安德森：不过你没有把太阳能电池板卖给顾客啊。
08:45
What are you doing?
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你们都经营些什么呢？
08:47
EM: No, we actually are. You can buy a solar system
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埃隆·马斯克：不是的，我们其实有卖的。你可以买一个太阳能系统
08:50
or you can lease a solar system.
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或者租一个。
08:51
Most people choose to lease.
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大部分人都选择租。
08:53
And the thing about solar power is that
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而太阳能有个优势是
08:55
it doesn't have any feed stock or operational costs,
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它没有任何的原料或者经营成本，
08:58
so once it's installed, it's just there.
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所以一旦装好了，就都一切就绪了。
09:01
It works for decades. It'll work for probably a century.
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可以用几十年。甚至可能可以用100年。
09:06
So therefore, the key thing to do is to get the cost
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所以，关键的一部是把降低
09:09
of that initial installation low,
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第一次的安装费用，
09:11
and then get the cost of the financing low,
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然后减少融资成本，
09:13
because that interest -- those are the two factors that drive the cost of solar.
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因为那 —— 那些是推涨太阳能价格的两个因素。
09:17
And we've made huge progress in that direction,
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而我们朝这个方向已经取得了很大的进步，
09:21
and that's why I'm confident we'll actually beat natural gas.
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所以我才这么确信我们可以把天然气比下去。
09:24
CA: So your current proposition to consumers is,
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克里斯·安德森：那你目前给消费者的提议是，
09:27
don't pay so much up front.
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先不要花那么多钱。
09:29
EM: Zero.CA: Pay zero up front.
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埃隆·马斯克：零。克里斯·安德森：先不要花钱。
09:32
We will install panels on your roof.
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我们会在你的屋顶上安装太阳能板。
09:34
You will then pay, how long is a typical lease?
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你之后再付款，租用期一般是多久？
09:38
EM: Typical leases are 20 years,
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埃隆·马斯克：一般租用期是20年，
09:41
but the value proposition is, as you're sort of alluding to, quite straightforward.
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不过我们的价值定位是这样的，你也差不多暗示了，应该是说的蛮直白的了。
09:46
It's no money down, and your utility bill decreases.
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不用花钱，然后你的物业费也会降低。
09:50
Pretty good deal.
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非常合算的。
09:52
CA: So that seems like a win for the consumer.
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克里斯·安德森：所以这看起来好像是消费者成了赢家。
09:54
No risk, you'll pay less than you're paying now.
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没有风险，你花的钱会比现在少。
09:56
For you, the dream here then is that --
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对你来说，理想是——
09:59
I mean, who owns the electricity from those panels for the longer term?
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我是说，是谁长期享用有这些太阳能发电呢？
10:03
I mean, how do you, the company, benefit?
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我是说，你怎么，你的公司，怎么获利？
10:07
EM: Well, essentially,
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埃隆·马斯克：其实吧，
10:10
SolarCity raises a chunk of capital
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太阳城公司从很多地方筹集到了大笔资金，
10:16
from say, a company or a bank.
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比如说，其他公司或者银行。
10:20
Google is one of our big partners here.
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谷歌是我们的大合作伙伴。
10:22
And they have an expected return on that capital.
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而他们的投资也会有回报。
10:24
With that capital, SolarCity purchases and installs the panel on the roof
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有了资金，太阳城可以购买太阳能
10:29
and then charges the homeowner or business owner
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然后在安装在屋顶上，
10:32
a monthly lease payment, which is less than the utility bill.
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然后每月向住户或者企业收取租金，这比物业费要低。
10:36
CA: But you yourself get a long-term commercial benefit from that power.
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克里斯·安德森：但是你自己要从经营太阳能当中长期获取商业利益。
10:39
You're kind of building a new type of distributed utility.
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你差不多是在建立一种新型的分散式发电。
10:43
EM: Exactly. What it amounts to
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正是如此。这就相当于
10:45
is a giant distributed utility.
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一个大规模的分散式发电。
10:48
I think it's a good thing, because utilities
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我觉得这很好，因为发电
10:51
have been this monopoly, and people haven't had any choice.
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长期都是一个垄断的行业，然后人们没有多少选择。
10:54
So effectively it's the first time
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所以实际上这是
10:56
there's been competition for this monopoly,
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与垄断的第一次抗衡，
10:59
because the utilities have been the only ones
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因为发电厂一直是唯一一个
11:02
that owned those power distribution lines, but now it's on your roof.
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拥有这些输电线路的人，不过现在你可以在你的屋顶上发电。
11:05
So I think it's actually very empowering
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所以我觉得这对于
11:07
for homeowners and businesses.
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各个家庭和企业实际上都是非常有利的。
11:09
CA: And you really picture a future
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那你真的能够想象的出
11:11
where a majority of power in America,
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在美国的未来大部分的电力，
11:15
within a decade or two, or within your lifetime, it goes solar?
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也就是在一二十年内，或者在你有生之年力，能够是由太阳能创造的？
11:19
EM: I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power,
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我极其确信太阳能至少会成为一种多数能源，
而且非常可能成为一种主要方式，
11:25
and most likely a majority,
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11:27
and I predict it will be a plurality in less than 20 years.
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而我也预言不到20年就会实现。
11:33
I made that bet with someone —CA: Definition of plurality is?
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我也和某人打了个赌 — 克里斯·安德森：“多数”的定义什么？
11:36
EM: More from solar than any other source.
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埃隆·马斯克：太阳能发的电比其他的要多。
11:38
CA: Ah. Who did you make the bet with?
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克里斯·安德森：哦。那你和谁打赌了？
11:42
EM: With a friend who will remain nameless.
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埃隆·马斯克：一个无名朋友。
11:45
CA: Just between us. (Laughter)
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克里斯·安德森：就是我们两个啦。（笑）
11:49
EM: I made that bet, I think, two or three years ago,
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埃隆·马斯克：我打了这个赌，应该是两三年前的时候，
11:52
so in roughly 18 years,
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我说大概18年后，
11:54
I think we'll see more power from solar than any other source.
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我认为我们能够从太阳那里获取比其他能源更多的电力。
11:57
CA: All right, so let's go back to another bet that you made
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克里斯·安德森:那好，我们回头继续聊聊另外一个
11:59
with yourself, I guess, a kind of crazy bet.
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你和自己打的赌，我猜，是一个疯狂的赌注。
12:01
You'd made some money from the sale of PayPal.
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你从PayPal上面赚了些钱。
12:06
You decided to build a space company.
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你又决定要建立一个航天公司。
12:09
Why on Earth would someone do that?
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到底为什么有人会那么做呢？
12:11
(Laughter)
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（笑）
12:13
EM: I got that question a lot, that's true.
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埃隆·马斯克: 经常有人问我这个问题，确实如此。
12:16
People would say, "Did you hear the joke about the guy
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人们都说“你有没听过一个笑话，是一个人
12:18
who made a small fortune in the space industry?"
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在航空领域挣了点小钱？”
12:21
Obviously, "He started with a large one," is the punchline.
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显然，“他一开始投入了大笔资金”是其中的幽默点。
12:25
And so I tell people, well, I was trying to figure out
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然后我会和他们说，恩，我想要找出一个
12:28
the fastest way to turn a large fortune into a small one.
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把大笔财富转化成小笔财富的最快方式。
12:30
And they'd look at me, like, "Is he serious?"
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然后他们都看着我说，“他是认真的吗？”
12:33
CA: And strangely, you were. So what happened?
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克里斯·安德森: 奇怪的是，你确实是认真的。之后怎么样？
12:38
EM: It was a close call. Things almost didn't work out.
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埃隆·马斯克：很侥幸了。本来是几乎不可能成功的事。
12:41
We came very close to failure,
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我们几乎要失败了，
12:43
but we managed to get through that point in 2008.
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不过还是熬过了2008年的难关。
12:46
The goal of SpaceX is to try to advance rocket technology,
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我们SpaceX的目标是推进火箭技术，
12:52
and in particular to try to crack a problem
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特别是要解决一个问题，
12:54
that I think is vital
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我认为这个问题
12:56
for humanity to become a space-faring civilization,
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对于人类进入太空文明来说是至关重要的，
12:58
which is to have a rapidly and fully reusable rocket.
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也就是要拥有一个能够迅速且完全可重复使用的火箭。
13:03
CA: Would humanity become a space-faring civilization?
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克里斯·安德森：人类会成为太空文明吗？
13:06
So that was a dream of yours, in a way, from a young age?
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这是是你的梦想，甚至是，你小时候的梦想？
13:10
You've dreamed of Mars and beyond?
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你曾梦想过去火星甚至更远的地方？
13:13
EM: I did build rockets when I was a kid,
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埃隆·马斯克：我在小的时候确实造过火箭，
13:15
but I didn't think I'd be involved in this.
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不过我不觉得我会参与其中。
13:17
It was really more from the standpoint of
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更多的只是这样一个角度，
13:19
what are the things that need to happen in order for
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就是我们需要创造哪些东西来使
13:23
the future to be an exciting and inspiring one?
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我们的未来变得令人激动而且鼓舞人心？
13:25
And I really think there's a fundamental difference,
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而我真的觉得有一个基本的区别，
13:30
if you sort of look into the future,
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如果你想象下未来，
13:31
between a humanity that is a space-faring civilization,
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在太空文明中的人类，
13:34
that's out there exploring the stars, on multiple planets,
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他们会出去探索星球，不同的星球，
13:37
and I think that's really exciting,
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而我觉得那真是激动人心，
13:40
compared with one where we are forever confined to Earth
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比起我们永远的困在地球上
13:43
until some eventual extinction event.
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直至灭绝来说，确实如此。
13:45
CA: So you've somehow slashed the cost of building
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克里斯·安德森：那你还是把火箭的建造成本降低了
13:47
a rocket by 75 percent, depending on how you calculate it.
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75%，按照你的计算方式。
13:50
How on Earth have you done that?
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你到底怎么做到的？
13:53
NASA has been doing this for years. How have you done this?
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NASA（美国宇航局）为此花了数年的时间。你却是怎么成功的？
13:56
EM: Well, we've made significant advances
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埃隆·马斯克：嗯，我们在机身技术上有了巨大的进步，
13:58
in the technology of the airframe, the engines,
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同时还有引擎，
14:01
the electronics and the launch operation.
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电子设备还有发射操作技术。
14:04
There's a long list of innovations
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我们还有一串的
14:07
that we've come up with there
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创新技术，
14:09
that are a little difficult to communicate in this talk, but --
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在这里讲这些可能有点困难，但是 ——
14:15
CA: Not least because you could still get copied, right?
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克里斯·安德森：尤其是因为你还是可以将其申请专利的，对吗？
14:18
You haven't patented this stuff. It's really interesting to me.
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你还没有申请。这真的令我感兴趣。
14:21
EM: No, we don't patent.CA: You didn't patent because you think it's
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埃隆·马斯克：没，我们不申请。克里斯·安德森：你没申请是因为你觉得
14:23
more dangerous to patent than not to patent.
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申请比不申请更危险。
14:26
EM: Since our primary competitors are national governments,
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埃隆·马斯克：既然我们的首要竞争对手是国家政府，
14:28
the enforceability of patents is questionable.(Laughter) (Applause)
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那专利的执行性就不可靠了。（笑）
14:33
CA: That's really, really interesting.
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克里斯·安德森：那真是，真是太有意思了。
14:36
But the big innovation is still ahead,
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不过将来还有一个大创新，
14:39
and you're working on it now. Tell us about this.
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你目前正在着手。和我们说一下吧。
14:42
EM: Right, so the big innovation—
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埃隆·马斯克: 对,这个大创新制作 —
14:43
CA: In fact, let's roll that video and you can talk us through it, what's happening here.
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克里斯·安德森：其实，我们播放一下视频然后你可以一边跟我们说，视频上都是些什么。
14:47
EM: Absolutely. So the thing about rockets is that
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埃隆·马斯克：好。那关于这个火箭呢，
14:52
they're all expendable.
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它们目前都不能重复使用。
14:53
All rockets that fly today are fully expendable.
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如今所有的火箭都完全是不可重复利用的。
14:55
The space shuttle was an attempt at a reusable rocket,
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航天飞机的目的就是为了使火箭可以重复利用，
14:57
but even the main tank of the space shuttle was thrown away every time,
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但是即便是航天飞机的主油箱每次都要用完就扔，
15:00
and the parts that were reusable
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而可以重复使用的零部件
15:03
took a 10,000-person group nine months to refurbish for flight.
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要用1万人的队伍花9个月的时间来更新。
15:08
So the space shuttle ended up costing a billion dollars per flight.
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所以一个航天飞机每次飞行的最后成本都高达10亿美元。
15:11
Obviously that doesn't work very well for —
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显然这不是很理想 —
15:13
CA: What just happened there? We just saw something land?
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克里斯·安德森：然后这是什么？我们看到有什么降落了？
15:17
EM: That's right. So it's important that the rocket stages
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埃隆·马斯克：对。所以能让火箭的底座
15:21
be able to come back, to be able to return to the launch site
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回到陆地上，
15:24
and be ready to launch again within a matter of hours.
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能够回到发射基地然后准备在几个小时内做好下一次发射的准备，这是很重要的。
15:27
CA: Wow. Reusable rockets.EM: Yes. (Applause)
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克里斯·安德森：哇。可循环利用的火箭。埃隆·马斯克：对。（掌声）
15:32
And so what a lot of people don't realize is,
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还有一个很多人没意识到的是，
15:35
the cost of the fuel, of the propellant, is very small.
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燃料的成本，也就是推进物的成本，很低。
15:38
It's much like on a jet.
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和喷气式飞机的差不多。
15:39
So the cost of the propellant is about .3 percent
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所以推进物的成本大约
15:43
of the cost of the rocket.
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是火箭成本的0.3%。
15:45
So it's possible to achieve, let's say,
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所以我们可以让，比如说，
15:47
roughly 100-fold improvement in the cost of spaceflight
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太空行程的成本改善大约100倍，
15:50
if you can effectively reuse the rocket.
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只要你能够做到重复利用火箭。
15:53
That's why it's so important.
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所以说为什么这很重要。
15:54
Every mode of transport that we use,
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我们用的每一种交通，
15:57
whether it's planes, trains, automobiles, bikes, horses,
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飞机、火车、汽车、单车、马
16:00
is reusable, but not rockets.
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都是可重复利用的，唯独火箭不是。
16:02
So we must solve this problem in order to become a space-faring civilization.
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所以我们必须要解决这个问题从而进入太空文明。
16:05
CA: You asked me the question earlier
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克里斯·安德森：你之前问我一个问题，
16:07
of how popular traveling on cruises would be
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如果你必须在用完轮船后把它烧毁，
16:10
if you had to burn your ships afterward.EM: Certain cruises are apparently highly problematic.
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那么邮轮这种出行方式还会有多受欢迎。埃隆·马斯克：一些邮轮旅游显然会出现大问题。
16:17
CA: Definitely more expensive.
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克里斯·安德森：肯定会更贵。
16:19
So that's potentially absolutely disruptive technology,
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所以那很有可能是绝对性的破坏技术，
16:23
and, I guess, paves the way for your dream to actually take,
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而且，我猜，它为你的梦想铺平了道路，
16:27
at some point, to take humanity to Mars at scale.
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从某点上来说，就是那个让人类大规模的移居火星的梦想。
16:31
You'd like to see a colony on Mars.
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你想看到人们在火星上殖民。
16:33
EM: Yeah, exactly. SpaceX, or some combination
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埃隆·马斯克：对，正是这样。SpaceX，或者其他一些
16:37
of companies and governments, needs to make progress
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公司和政府的合作，需要
16:40
in the direction of making life multi-planetary,
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在多星球生活圈的道路上更进一步，
16:43
of establishing a base on another planet,
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在另外一个星球建立基地，
16:46
on Mars -- being the only realistic option --
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就是火星 — 唯一个实际的选择，—
16:49
and then building that base up
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然后接着扩建基地
16:50
until we're a true multi-planet species.
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直至我们成为真正能在多星球上生存的物种。
16:53
CA: So progress on this "let's make it reusable,"
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克里斯·安德森：那么“让它循环利用”的行动
16:56
how is that going? That was just a simulation video we saw.
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进展如何？我们刚刚就看到了一个模拟视频。
17:00
How's it going?
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现在如何了？
17:01
EM: We're actually, we've been making some good progress recently
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埃隆·马斯克：实际上我们，我们近期在一个叫做
17:04
with something we call the Grasshopper Test Project,
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“蚱蜢测验计划”中取得了不错的进展，
17:06
where we're testing the vertical landing portion of the flight,
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我们在这个计划当中测试了火箭垂直降落的这一个部分，
17:11
the sort of terminal portion which is quite tricky.
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这个最后的部分相当复杂。
17:13
And we've had some good tests.
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那我们在测验中取得了不错的成绩。
17:16
CA: Can we see that?EM: Yeah.
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克里斯·安德森：我们能看下吗？埃隆·马斯克：可以。
17:19
So that's just to give a sense of scale.
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那只是给你一个规模上的感受。
17:20
We dressed a cowboy as Johnny Cash
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我们把一个牛仔打扮成约翰尼.卡什
17:22
and bolted the mannequin to the rocket. (Laughter)
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然后把这个人体模型拴在火箭上。（笑）
17:25
CA: All right, let's see that video then,
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克里斯·安德森：好，我们看一下这个视频，
17:27
because this is actually amazing when you think about it.
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因为实际上你想一下就会觉得它其实很令人惊异。
17:29
You've never seen this before. A rocket blasting off and then --
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你从来没见过。一个火箭发射后然后——
17:35
EM: Yeah, so that rocket is about the size
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埃隆·马斯克：是啊，那个火箭大约是
17:37
of a 12-story building.
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一座12层建筑的大小。
17:40
(Rocket launch)
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（火箭发射）
17:50
So now it's hovering at about 40 meters,
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那现在在空中40米处停悬，
17:54
and it's constantly adjusting
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然后一直在调整
17:56
the angle, the pitch and yaw of the main engine,
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角度，主发动机的俯仰和偏航，
17:59
and maintaining roll with coal gas thrusters.
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然后用煤气推进器保持滚动。
18:09
CA: How cool is that? (Applause)
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克里斯·安德森：这不是很酷吗？（掌声）
18:16
Elon, how have you done this?
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埃隆，你怎么做到的？
18:20
These projects are so -- Paypal, SolarCity,
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这些计划都——Paypal，太阳城，
18:26
Tesla, SpaceX, they're so spectacularly different,
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Tesla，SpaceX，他们都彼此那么不同，
18:28
they're such ambitious projects at scale.
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都是大规模的宏伟计划。
18:31
How on Earth has one person
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怎么会有人可以
18:33
been able to innovate in this way?
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用这样的方式创新？
18:36
What is it about you?
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你到底如何做到的？
18:38
EM: I don't know, actually.
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埃隆·马斯克：我也不知道，其实。
18:43
I don't have a good answer for you.
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我没法很好的回答你。
18:45
I work a lot. I mean, a lot.
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我做了很多工作。真的，很多。
18:49
CA: Well, I have a theory.EM: Okay. All right.
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克里斯·安德森：恩，我有个理论。埃隆·马斯克：好。不错。
18:51
CA: My theory is that you
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克里斯·安德森：我的理论就是你
18:55
have an ability to think at a system level of design
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有一种能力，可以让你在设计的层面系统地思考，
18:59
that pulls together design, technology and business,
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汇聚了设计、科技和商业，
19:03
so if TED was TBD, design, technology and business,
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所以如果TED是TBD，Design（设计）、Technology（科技）和 Business （商业），
19:06
into one package,
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把他们打包起来，
19:09
synthesize it in a way that very few people can and --
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以一种人们很少能够做到的方式融合起来然后 ——
19:11
and this is the critical thing -- feel so damn confident
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然后关键的是——你对这个
19:15
in that clicked-together package that you take crazy risks.
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拼接的组合非常的有信心，甚至会去冒疯狂的风险。
19:20
You bet your fortune on it, and you seem to have done that multiple times.
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你赌上了你的财富，而且你好像还赌了好几次。
19:25
I mean, almost no one can do that.
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我想说，基本没别人会这么做了。
19:27
Is that -- could we have some of that secret sauce?
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是不是——我们能不能分享一下秘诀？
19:30
Can we put it into our education system? Can someone learn from you?
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我们能否将它放进我们的教育系统中？人们可以向你学习到什么吗？
19:33
It is truly amazing what you've done.
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你所做的真的太令人惊叹了。
19:35
EM: Well, thanks. Thank you.
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埃隆·马斯克：嗯，谢谢。谢谢。
19:37
Well, I do think there's a good framework for thinking.
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呃，我真的觉得我们有一个非常好的思考框架。
19:42
It is physics. You know, the sort of first principles reasoning.
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就是物理。你知道，它是推理的第一原理。
19:45
Generally I think there are -- what I mean by that is,
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我大体上认为有——我想说的是，
19:49
boil things down to their fundamental truths
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把一切都归结于事物的基本本质
19:53
and reason up from there,
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然后从此处开始推理，
19:54
as opposed to reasoning by analogy.
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这不同于类比推理。
19:57
Through most of our life, we get through life
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我们生活当中，
19:59
by reasoning by analogy,
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我们都是用类比推理，
20:00
which essentially means copying what other people do with slight variations.
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实际上就是说我们要照搬别人的做法然后稍加改动。
20:04
And you have to do that.
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你必须这样做。
20:05
Otherwise, mentally, you wouldn't be able to get through the day.
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否则，从心理层面看，你这一天就过不去了。
20:10
But when you want to do something new,
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不过当你想要做一件新的事情，
20:12
you have to apply the physics approach.
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你必须按物理原则办事。
20:16
Physics is really figuring out how to discover
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物理正是一种
20:18
new things that are counterintuitive, like quantum mechanics.
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用反直觉的方式来发现新事物的方法，就像量子力学。
20:20
It's really counterintuitive.
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它就非常反直觉。
20:22
So I think that's an important thing to do,
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所以我觉得这是非常重要的事情，
20:25
and then also to really pay attention to negative feedback,
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然后也要非常注重负面的反馈，
20:29
and solicit it, particularly from friends.
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寻求反馈，特别是从朋友那里。
20:32
This may sound like simple advice,
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这可能听起来像个很简单的建议，
20:35
but hardly anyone does that,
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但是很少人这么做，
20:37
and it's incredibly helpful.
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这是非常有帮助的。
20:40
CA: Boys and girls watching, study physics.
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克里斯·安德森：男孩们女孩们，要学物理啊。
20:43
Learn from this man.
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向这个人学习。
20:44
Elon Musk, I wish we had all day, but thank you so much for coming to TED.
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埃隆·马斯克，我希望我们可以聊一整天，不过谢谢你来到TED。
20:48
EM: Thank you. CA: That was awesome. That was really, really cool.
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埃隆·马斯克：谢谢。克里斯·安德森：真是太厉害了。真的，真的很酷。
20:51
Look at that. (Applause)
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看看。（掌声）
20:54
Just take a bow. That was fantastic.
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鞠个躬。太奇妙了。
20:58
Thank you so much.
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非常感谢。
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Elon Musk - Serial entrepreneurElon Musk is the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors and the CEO/CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX).
Why you should listen
At SpaceX, Musk oversees the development of rockets and spacecraft for missions to Earth orbit and ultimately to other planets. In 2008, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft won the NASA contract to provide cargo transport to space. In 2012, SpaceX became the first commercial company to dock with the International Space Station and return cargo to Earth with the Dragon.
At Tesla, Musk has overseen product development and design from the beginning, including the all-electric Tesla Roadster, Model S and Model X, and the rollout of Supercharger stations to keep the cars juiced up. (Some of the charging stations use solar energy systems from SolarCity, of which Musk is the non-executive chair.) Transitioning to a sustainable energy economy, in which electric vehicles play a pivotal role, has been one of his central interests for almost two decades. He co-founded PayPal and served as the company's chair and CEO.
Elon Musk | Speaker | TED.com