TED2013
Elon Musk: The mind behind Tesla, SpaceX, SolarCity ...
Elon Musk: Um iza Tesle, SpaceXa, SolarCityja...
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Poduzetnik Elon Musk je čovjek sa puno planova. Osnivatelj PayPala, Tesle Motorsa i SpaceXa razgovarao je sa TEDovim djelatnikom Chrisom Andersonom kako bi podijelio detalje o svom vizionarskom projektu, koji uključuje električni automobil na tržištima, tvrtku koja se bavi iznajmljivanjem solarne energije i stvaranje rakete za višekratnu upotrebu.
Elon Musk - Serial entrepreneur
Elon Musk is the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors and the CEO/CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX). Full bio
Elon Musk is the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors and the CEO/CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX). Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
Chris Anderson: Elon, what kind of crazy dream
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Chris Anderson: Elon, kakav te to samo ludi san
00:19
would persuade you to think of trying
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natjerao na pomisao
00:21
to take on the auto industry and build an all-electric car?
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da se okušaš u automobilskoj industriji i sastaviš potpuno električni automobil?
00:24
Elon Musk: Well, it goes back to when I was in university.
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Elon Musk: Pa, protječe još iz mojih studentskih dana.
00:28
I thought about, what are the problems that are most likely
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Razmišljao sam koji će problemi najvjerojatnije
00:30
to affect the future of the world or the future of humanity?
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utjecati na budućnost svijeta ili budućnost čovječanstva?
00:33
I think it's extremely important that we have sustainable transport
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Smatram da je od iznimne važnosti da imamo održivi transport
00:37
and sustainable energy production.
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i proizvodnju održive energije.
00:39
That sort of overall sustainable energy problem
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Takav cjelokupni problem održive energije
00:41
is the biggest problem that we have to solve this century,
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je navjeći problem koji ćemo morati riješiti u ovom stoljeću,
00:43
independent of environmental concerns.
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neovisno o zabrinutosti za okoliš.
00:46
In fact, even if producing CO2 was good for the environment,
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Istina je ta da čak i da je proizvodnja CO2 dobra za okoliš,
00:49
given that we're going to run out of hydrocarbons,
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znajući da će nam ponestati ugljikovodika,
00:52
we need to find some sustainable means of operating.
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moramo pronaći odgovarajuće održive mjere djelovanja.
00:56
CA: Most of American electricity comes from
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CA: Većina Američke električne energije proizlazi iz
01:00
burning fossil fuels.
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spaljivanja fosilnih goriva.
01:01
How can an electric car that plugs into that electricity help?
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Kako će električni automobil, uključen u električnu struju, pomoći?
01:06
EM: Right. There's two elements to that answer.
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EM: U redu. Odgovor se sastoji od dvije komponente.
01:09
One is that, even if you take the same source fuel
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Prva je da čak i da se uzme isti izvor goriva
01:12
and produce power at the power plant
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i proizvede snaga na elektrani
01:14
and use it to charge electric cars, you're still better off.
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i iskoristi za napajanje električnih automobila, za nas je još uvijek bolje.
01:17
So if you take, say, natural gas,
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Ako uzmete, naprimjer, prirodni plin,
01:19
which is the most prevalent hydrocarbon source fuel,
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koji je najrasprostanjeniji izvor goriva ugljikovodika
01:21
if you burn that in a modern
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i ako ga spalite u modernoj
01:24
General Electric natural gas turbine,
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prirodnoj plinskoj turbini tvrtke General Electric
01:27
you'll get about 60 percent efficiency.
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dobit ćete oko 60 postotnu učinkovitost.
01:28
If you put that same fuel in an internal combustion engine car,
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Ako to isto gorivo prođe kroz unutarnje izgaranje u motoru automobila
01:31
you get about 20 percent efficiency.
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dobit ćete oko 20 postotnu učinkovitost.
01:33
And the reason is, in the stationary power plant,
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A razlog je taj da si u elektranama na stacionarni pogon
01:35
you can afford to have something that weighs a lot more,
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možete priuštiti nešto što teži puno više,
01:37
is voluminous,
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većeg je obujma
01:39
and you can take the waste heat
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i možete uzeti otpadnu toplinu
01:40
and run a steam turbine and generate
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pokrenuti parnu turbinu i generirati
01:41
a secondary power source.
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sekundarne izvore snage.
01:43
So in effect, even after you've taken transmission loss into account and everything,
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Dakle, čak i nakon što uzmete u obzir gubitak pri prijenosu
01:47
even using the same source fuel, you're at least twice as better off
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i pri potrošnji istog izvora goriva, najmanje ste dva puta sigurniji
01:50
charging an electric car, then burning it at the power plant.
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pri napajanju električnog automobila, nego njenog izgaranja u elektrani.
01:53
CA: That scale delivers efficiency.
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CA: Takva mjera predstavlja učinkovitost.
01:55
EM: Yes, it does.
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EM: Da, tako je.
01:57
And then the other point is, we have to have sustainable means
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I druga stvar je da moramo računati na održive mjere
02:00
of power generation anyway, electricity generation.
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generiranja snage, to jest, generiranja električne energije.
02:02
So given that we have to solve sustainable electricity generation,
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Znači ako moramo riješiti održivu proizvodnju električke energije,
02:05
then it makes sense for us to have electric cars
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onda ima smisla imati električni automobil
02:09
as the mode of transport.
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kao prijevozno sredstvo.
02:11
CA: So we've got some video here
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CA: Dakle imamo ovdje nekoliko
02:13
of the Tesla being assembled,
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montiranih snimaka Tesle
02:15
which, if we could play that first video --
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koji, ako bi mogli vidjeti prvi video ..
02:18
So what is innovative about this process in this vehicle?
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Dakle što je inovativno u razvoju ovog vozila?
02:23
EM: Sure. So, in order to accelerate the advent of electric transport,
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EM: Svakako. Dakle kako bi ubrzali stvarnost električnih prijevoznih sredstava,
02:26
and I should say that I think, actually,
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i trebao bih reći da mislim, zapravo,
02:29
all modes of transport will become fully electric
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da će sva prijevozna sredstva u potpunosti postati električna
02:31
with the ironic exception of rockets.
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s ironičnom iznimkom raketa.
02:36
There's just no way around Newton's third law.
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Jednostavno se ne može zaobići Newtonom treći zakon.
02:39
The question is how do you accelerate
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PItanje je kako ubrzati
02:42
the advent of electric transport?
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pojavu elektičnog prijevoznog sredstva?
02:44
And in order to do that for cars, you have to come up with
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I kako bi to postigli za automobile, moramo smisliti
02:46
a really energy efficient car,
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energetski zbilja djelotvoran automobil
02:49
so that means making it incredibly light,
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a to znači postizanje nevjerojatne lakoće
02:50
and so what you're seeing here
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i ono što vidite ovdje
02:52
is the only all-aluminum body and chassis car
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je jedina sve-aluminijskom karoserija i šasija
02:54
made in North America.
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proizvedena u Sjevernoj Americi.
02:56
In fact, we applied a lot of rocket design techniques
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Primijenili smo zapravo puno metoda korištenih kod dizajniranja raketa
02:59
to make the car light despite having a very large battery pack.
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kako bi dobili svjetlost automobila unatoč vrlo velikoj bateriji.
03:02
And then it also has the lowest drag coefficient
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I također mora imati najniži koeficijent otpora strujanju
03:04
of any car of its size.
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bilo kojeg automobila iste veličine.
03:06
So as a result, the energy usage is very low,
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Dakle kao rezultat, postotak primijenjene energije je vrlo nizak,
03:09
and it has the most advanced battery pack,
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i ima najnapredniju bateriju,
03:12
and that's what gives it the range that's competitive,
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i to je ono što mu daje konkurentan raspon
03:14
so you can actually have on the order of a 250-mile range.
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tako da zapravo možete imati narudžbu u rasponu od oko 400 kilometara.
03:17
CA: I mean, those battery packs are incredibly heavy,
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CA: Jer te su baterije nevjerojatno teške,
03:21
but you think the math can still work out intelligently --
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ali ti smatraš da bi se spoj mogao intelektualno ostvariti
03:24
by combining light body, heavy battery,
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sa kombinacijom lake karoserije, teške baterije,
03:26
you can still gain spectacular efficiency.
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i sa dodatno dobivenom spektakularnom djelotvornošću.
03:28
EM: Exactly. The rest of the car has to be very light
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EM: Točno. Ostatak automobila mora biti vrlo lagan
03:30
to offset the mass of the pack,
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kako bi se stvorila ravnoteža
03:32
and then you have to have a low drag coefficient so that you have good highway range.
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i nakon toga moramo imati nizak otpor strujanju kako bi se uravnotežio cijeloukupni raspon.
03:35
And in fact, customers of the Model S
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I stvarno, korisnici Model S-a
03:39
are sort of competing with each other
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se na neki način međusobno natječu
03:40
to try to get the highest possible range.
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kako bi se čim bolje rangirali.
03:43
I think somebody recently got 420 miles out of a single charge.
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Mislim da je nedavno netko dobio oko 675 kilometara iz jednog napajanja.
03:46
CA: Bruno Bowden, who's here, did that,
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CA: Bruno Bowden, koji je ovdje prisutan, je učinio to,
03:49
broke the world record.EM: Congratulations.
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srušio svjetski rekord. Moje čestitke.
03:52
CA: That was the good news. The bad news was that
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CA: Ovo je bila dobra vijest. Loša je ta da kako
03:54
to do it, he had to drive at 18 miles an hour constant speed
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bi ti učinio, morao je voziti stalnom brzinom od oko 30 km/h
03:56
and got pulled over by the cops. (Laughter)
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i zaustavila ga je policija. (Smijeh)
04:00
EM: I mean, you can certainly drive --
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EM: Mislim, stvarno možete voziti ...
04:04
if you drive it 65 miles an hour,
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ako vozite oko 100 km/h,
04:07
under normal conditions,
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u normalnim okolnostima,
04:09
250 miles is a reasonable number.
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400 kilometara je razuman broj.
04:11
CA: Let's show that second video
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CA: Prikažimo i drugu snimku
04:12
showing the Tesla in action on ice.
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gdje je Tesla u akciji na ledu.
04:15
Not at all a dig at The New York Times, this, by the way.
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I ovo nije udarac prema New York Timesu.
04:17
What is the most surprising thing about the experience
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Što je najiznenađujuće od svega u sveukupnom iskustvu
04:20
of driving the car?
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vožnje automobila?
04:21
EM: In creating an electric car,
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EM: U stvaranju električnog automobila,
04:23
the responsiveness of the car is really incredible.
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odgovor od samog vozila je stvarno nevjerojatan.
04:25
So we wanted really to have people feel as though
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Stvarno smo hjeli da se ljudi osjećaju kao da
04:28
they've almost got to mind meld with the car,
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se mogu stopiti sa automobilom,
04:30
so you just feel like you and the car are kind of one,
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tako da se osjećate kao da ste vi i vozilo kao jedno,
04:33
and as you corner and accelerate, it just happens,
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i kada skrećete i ubrzavate, jednostavno se desi,
04:37
like the car has ESP.
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kao da automobil ima ESP.
04:39
You can do that with an electric car because of its responsiveness.
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To se može postići u električnom automobilu zbog njegove sukladnosti.
04:42
You can't do that with a gasoline car.
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To se ne može postići s benzinskim vozilom.
04:44
I think that's really a profound difference,
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Smatram da je ta razlika stvarno duboka,
04:46
and people only experience that when they have a test drive.
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i ljudi je dožive tek kada prođu probnu vožnju.
04:48
CA: I mean, this is a beautiful but expensive car.
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CA: Jer, ovaj je automobil predivan ali skup.
04:53
Is there a road map where this becomes
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Postoji li potokaz na kojem postaje
04:56
a mass-market vehicle?
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vozilo dostupno masama?
04:58
EM: Yeah. The goal of Tesla has always been
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EM: Da. Cilj Tesle je oduvijek bio
05:00
to have a sort of three-step process,
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postići ovakav postupak u tri koraka,
05:03
where version one was an expensive car at low volume,
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gdje je prva verzija skupi automobil na nižoj razini,
05:06
version two is medium priced and medium volume,
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druga verzija je automobil po srednjoj cijeni i na srednjoj razini,
05:10
and then version three would be low price, high volume.
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i treća verzija je niska cijena, visoka razina.
05:12
So we're at step two at this point.
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Sada se nalazimo usred druge verzije.
05:13
So we had a $100,000 sports car, which was the Roadster.
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Dakle imali smo sportski automobil za 100,000 dolara, Roadster.
05:16
Then we've got the Model S, which starts at around 50,000 dollars.
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Nakon toga Model S, čija početna cijena je oko 50 000 dolara.
05:19
And our third generation car, which should hopefully
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I naša treća generacija automobila, koja će nadam se
05:22
be out in about three or four years
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izaći za oko tri ili četiri godine
05:23
will be a $30,000 car.
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koštati oko 30 000 dolara.
05:26
But whenever you've got really new technology,
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Ali kada god imate stvarno novu tehnologiju,
05:28
it generally takes about three major versions
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najčešće su potrebne oko tri značajne verzije
05:30
in order to make it a compelling mass-market product.
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kako bi proizvod postao privlačan masama.
05:34
And so I think we're making progress in that direction,
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I smatramo da dobro napredujemo u tom smjeru,
05:36
and I feel confident that we'll get there.
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i siguran sam da ćemo stići do cilja.
05:39
CA: I mean, right now, if you've got a short commute,
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CA: Jer, upravo sada, računate sa manje odrađenim poslom,
05:41
you can drive, you can get back, you can charge it at home.
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možete voziti, vratiti se, napuniti ga kod kuće.
05:44
There isn't a huge nationwide network of charging stations now that are fast.
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Ne postoje velike državne mreže brzih postaja za napajanje.
05:49
Do you see that coming, really, truly,
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Vidite li ih u budućnosti, stvarno, istinski,
05:51
or just on a few key routes?
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ili samo nekoliko ključnih puteljaka?
05:54
EM: There actually are far more charging stations
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EM: Zapravo postoji puno više postaja za napajanje
05:57
than people realize,
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nego što ljudi misle,
05:59
and at Tesla we developed something
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i u Tesli smo proizveli nešto
06:01
called a Supercharging technology,
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što nazivamo visokonaponska tehnologija,
06:03
and we're offering that if you buy a Model S
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koju nudimo ako kupite Model S
06:07
for free, forever.
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besplatno, zauvijek.
06:08
And so this is something that maybe a lot of people don't realize.
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I to je nešto što možda puno ljudi ne zna.
06:11
We actually have California and Nevada covered,
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Pokrili smo Kaliforniju i Nevadu,
06:14
and we've got the Eastern seaboard
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i istočnu obalu
06:16
from Boston to D.C. covered.
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od Bostona prema Washingtonu.
06:18
By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive
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Do kraja godine, moći ćete voziti
06:20
from L.A. to New York
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od Los Angelesa do New Yorka
06:22
just using the Supercharger network,
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upotrebljavljajući samo visokonaponsku mrežu,
06:23
which charges at five times the rate of anything else.
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koje se puni pet puta brže od bilo čega drugog.
06:28
And the key thing is to have a ratio of drive to stop,
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I ključna stvar je zaustaviti omjer pogona
06:32
to stop time, of about six or seven.
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zaustaviti na vrijeme, oko šest ili sedam sati.
06:35
So if you drive for three hours,
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Znači ako vozite oko tri sata
06:37
you want to stop for 20 or 30 minutes,
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želite se zaustaviti na dvadeset ili trideset minuta,
06:39
because that's normally what people will stop for.
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to je uobičajeno vrijeme na koje ljudi staju.
06:41
So if you start a trip at 9 a.m.,
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Znači ako krenete na put u devet sati ujutro,
06:43
by noon you want to stop to have a bite to eat,
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do podneva ćete stati da nešto pojedete,
06:46
hit the restroom, coffee, and keep going.
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obavite nuždu, popijete kavu i krenete dalje.
06:48
CA: So your proposition to consumers is, for the full charge, it could take an hour.
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CA: Znači vaš prijedlog klijentima je da je za potpuno punjenje potrebno oko sat vremena.
06:51
So it's common -- don't expect to be out of here in 10 minutes.
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Dakle često je -- ne očekujte izaći na cestu u deset minuta.
06:55
Wait for an hour, but the good news is,
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Pričekajte sat vremena, ali dobra vijest je da,
06:57
you're helping save the planet,
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pomažete u spašavanju planete,
06:58
and by the way, the electricity is free. You don't pay anything.
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i usput, električna energija je besplatna. Ne plaćate ništa.
07:01
EM: Actually, what we're expecting is for people
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EM: Zapravo, ono što očekujemo od ljudi je
07:03
to stop for about 20 to 30 minutes, not for an hour.
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da stanu na dvadesetak do tridesetak minuta, ne na sat vremena.
07:07
It's actually better to drive for about maybe 160, 170 miles
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Zapravo je bolje voziti oko dvjestopetedeset, dvjestošezdeset kilometara
07:14
and then stop for half an hour
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i stati na pola sata
07:16
and then keep going.
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nego nastaviti dalje.
07:18
That's the natural cadence of a trip.
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To je prirodan redoslijed puta.
07:21
CA: All right. So this is only one string to your energy bow.
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CA: U redu. Znači to je samo jedan dio u vašem energetskom planu.
07:25
You've been working on this solar company SolarCity.
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Radite u tvrtci za solarnu energiju, SolarCity.
07:28
What's unusual about that?
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Što je neobično oko toga?
07:31
EM: Well, as I mentioned earlier,
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EM: Dakle, kao što sam ranije spomenuo,
07:33
we have to have sustainable electricity production
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moramo imati na raspolaganju održivu energetsku proizvodnju
07:37
as well as consumption,
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kao i potrošnju,
07:38
so I'm quite confident that the primary means
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prilično sam siguran da će primarni izvori
07:42
of power generation will be solar.
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generacije snage biti solarni.
07:44
I mean, it's really indirect fusion, is what it is.
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Mislim, radi se o indirektnoj fuziji, to je to.
07:47
We've got this giant fusion generator in the sky called the sun,
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Imamo ogroman fuzijski generator na nebu koji se naziva Sunce,
07:50
and we just need to tap a little bit of that energy
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i trebamo samo izvuči malo te energije
07:53
for purposes of human civilization.
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u svrhu ljudske civilizacije.
07:56
What most people know but don't realize they know
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Što većina ljudi zna ali ne shvaća da zapravo zna
07:58
is that the world is almost entirely solar-powered already.
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je da svijet već sada skoro cijeli radi na bazi solarne energije.
08:01
If the sun wasn't there, we'd be a frozen ice ball
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Da nema Sunca, bili bi smrznuta kuglica leda
08:04
at three degrees Kelvin,
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na minus dvjestosedamdeset celzijevih stupnjeva,
08:07
and the sun powers the entire system of precipitation.
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i sunce pokreće cijeli sistem precipitacija.
08:10
The whole ecosystem is solar-powered.
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I cijeli ekosistem je na solarnoj bazi.
08:13
CA: But in a gallon of gasoline, you have,
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CA: Ali u galonu benzina, imate,
08:15
effectively, thousands of years of sun power
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zapravo, tisuće godina sunčeve energije
08:18
compressed into a small space,
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stisnute u mali prostor,
08:20
so it's hard to make the numbers work right now on solar,
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tako da je teško dobiti pozitivne brojke za solarnu energiju,
08:23
and to remotely compete with, for example, natural gas,
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i da se natječe, približno sa, na primer, prirodnim plinom,
08:26
fracked natural gas. How are you going to build a business here?
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Kako ćete stvoriti posao ovdje?
08:29
EM: Well actually, I'm confident that solar
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EM: Zapravo, vjerujem da će solarna energija
08:33
will beat everything, hands down, including natural gas.
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pobijediti sve, ruke dolje, uključujući i prirodni plin.
08:36
(Applause)CA: How?
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(Pljesak) CA: Kako?
08:39
EM: It must, actually. If it doesn't, we're in deep trouble.
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EM: Mora, zapravo. Ako se to ne dogodi, bit ćemo u velikim problemima.
08:42
CA: But you're not selling solar panels to consumers.
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CA: Ali klijentima ne prodajete solarne panele.
08:45
What are you doing?
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Što zapravo radite?
08:47
EM: No, we actually are. You can buy a solar system
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EM: Ne, zapravo ih prodajemo. Možete kupiti solarni sustav
08:50
or you can lease a solar system.
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ili ga možete unajmiti.
08:51
Most people choose to lease.
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Većina ljudi ga uzme u najam.
08:53
And the thing about solar power is that
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I ono bitno oko solarnog sustava je to
08:55
it doesn't have any feed stock or operational costs,
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da ne mora imati nikakve zalihe ili poslovne troškove,
08:58
so once it's installed, it's just there.
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tako da kad ga jednom instalirate, jednostavno ostane.
09:01
It works for decades. It'll work for probably a century.
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I radi desetljećima. Vjerojatno će raditi cijelo stoljeće.
09:06
So therefore, the key thing to do is to get the cost
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Dakle, ključna stvar je da cijena
09:09
of that initial installation low,
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prve instalacije bude niska,
09:11
and then get the cost of the financing low,
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i nakon toga da samo financiranje bude nisko,
09:13
because that interest -- those are the two factors that drive the cost of solar.
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jer to je važno -- to su dva čimbenika koja upravljalju cijenom solarnog sustava.
09:17
And we've made huge progress in that direction,
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I postigli smo veliki napredak u tom smjeru
09:21
and that's why I'm confident we'll actually beat natural gas.
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i to je razlog zašto sam siguran da ćemo pobijediti prirodni plin.
09:24
CA: So your current proposition to consumers is,
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CA: Znači vaš trenutni prijedlog klijentima je
09:27
don't pay so much up front.
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da ne daju puno novca unaprijed.
09:29
EM: Zero.CA: Pay zero up front.
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EM: Nula. CA: Ne plaćate unaprijed.
09:32
We will install panels on your roof.
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Instalirati ćemo panele na vašem krovištu.
09:34
You will then pay, how long is a typical lease?
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Nakon toga ćete platiti, na koliko dugo je najam obično?
09:38
EM: Typical leases are 20 years,
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EM: Uobičajeni su na dvadeset godina,
09:41
but the value proposition is, as you're sort of alluding to, quite straightforward.
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ali prijedlog glavne vrijednosti je, kao što aludiraš, poprilično izravan.
09:46
It's no money down, and your utility bill decreases.
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Bez predujma, i smanje se vaši troškovi.
09:50
Pretty good deal.
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Prilično dobar dogovor.
09:52
CA: So that seems like a win for the consumer.
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CA: Izgleda kao pobjeda za kupca.
09:54
No risk, you'll pay less than you're paying now.
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Bez rizika, plaćate manje nego sada.
09:56
For you, the dream here then is that --
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Za vas, san se sastoji od --
09:59
I mean, who owns the electricity from those panels for the longer term?
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Jer, tko je vlasnik električne energije panela na duži rok?
10:03
I mean, how do you, the company, benefit?
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Kako vi, cijela tvrtka, profitirate?
10:07
EM: Well, essentially,
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EM: Dakle, u biti,
10:10
SolarCity raises a chunk of capital
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SolarCity ima dio kapitala
10:16
from say, a company or a bank.
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u, recimo, nekoj tvrtci ili banci.
10:20
Google is one of our big partners here.
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Google je jedan od naših glavnih partnera.
10:22
And they have an expected return on that capital.
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I računa sa povratom kapitala.
10:24
With that capital, SolarCity purchases and installs the panel on the roof
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Sa tim kapitalom, SolarCity kupuje i instalira panele na krovišta
10:29
and then charges the homeowner or business owner
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i nakon toga naplaćuje vlasnicima kuća ili poduzeća
10:32
a monthly lease payment, which is less than the utility bill.
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mjesečnu najamninu, koja je manja od ukupnih komunalnih troškova.
10:36
CA: But you yourself get a long-term commercial benefit from that power.
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CA: Ali vi dobivate dugoročnu poslovnu dobrobit iz te snage.
10:39
You're kind of building a new type of distributed utility.
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Jer stvarate novu vrstu dobro raspoređenih komunalnih troškova.
10:43
EM: Exactly. What it amounts to
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EM: Točno. Ono na što se cilja
10:45
is a giant distributed utility.
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je značajno velika raspodjela troškova.
10:48
I think it's a good thing, because utilities
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Smatram da je to dobro, jer troškovi
10:51
have been this monopoly, and people haven't had any choice.
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se smatraju monopolom u kojem osobe nemaju pravo izbora.
10:54
So effectively it's the first time
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Znači, zapravo, ovo je prvi put
10:56
there's been competition for this monopoly,
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da postoji natjecanje za ovaj monopol,
10:59
because the utilities have been the only ones
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jer su komunalna poduzeća bila jedina
11:02
that owned those power distribution lines, but now it's on your roof.
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koja su imala glavnu riječ pri distribuciji, ali ono se sada nalazi na vašem krovištu.
11:05
So I think it's actually very empowering
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I zato smatram da to zapravo opunomoćuje
11:07
for homeowners and businesses.
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vlasnike nekretnina i tvrtki.
11:09
CA: And you really picture a future
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CA: Možeš li stvarno zamisliti budućnost
11:11
where a majority of power in America,
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gdje većina snage u Americi
11:15
within a decade or two, or within your lifetime, it goes solar?
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unutar jednog ili dva desetljeća, ili za tvog života, prelazi u solarnu?
11:19
EM: I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power,
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EM: Ja se izrazito pouzdajem u to da će se solarna energija koristiti u većem broju,
11:25
and most likely a majority,
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da će prijeći u većinu,
11:27
and I predict it will be a plurality in less than 20 years.
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i predviđam da će postati većinska unutar dvadeset godina.
11:33
I made that bet with someone —CA: Definition of plurality is?
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S nekim sam se kladio o tome.
Koja je definicija većinstva?
Koja je definicija većinstva?
11:36
EM: More from solar than any other source.
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EM: Više izvora solarne energije nego bilo kojeg drugog.
11:38
CA: Ah. Who did you make the bet with?
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CA: S kime si se kladio?
11:42
EM: With a friend who will remain nameless.
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EM: Sa prijateljem kojeg neću imenovati.
11:45
CA: Just between us. (Laughter)
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CA: Ostaje među nama.
11:49
EM: I made that bet, I think, two or three years ago,
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EM: Kladio sam se, mislim, prije dvije ili tri godine,
11:52
so in roughly 18 years,
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tako da u oko osamnaest godina,
11:54
I think we'll see more power from solar than any other source.
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mislim da ćemo svjedočiti većinskom udjelu izvora solarne energije.
11:57
CA: All right, so let's go back to another bet that you made
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CA: U redu, vratimo se na tvoju drugu okladu
11:59
with yourself, I guess, a kind of crazy bet.
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sa samim sobim, mislim, malo luda oklada.
12:01
You'd made some money from the sale of PayPal.
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Zaradio si nešto novaca od prodaje na PayPalu.
12:06
You decided to build a space company.
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Odlučio si osnovati svemirski orijentiranu tvrtku.
12:09
Why on Earth would someone do that?
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Zašto, pobogu, bi to netko učinio?
12:11
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
12:13
EM: I got that question a lot, that's true.
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EM: Puno su me već puta to pitali, to je istina.
12:16
People would say, "Did you hear the joke about the guy
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Ljudi obično kažu, "Znaš li onaj vic o onom dečku
12:18
who made a small fortune in the space industry?"
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koji je zaradio malo bogatstvo u svemirskoj industriji?"
12:21
Obviously, "He started with a large one," is the punchline.
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Očito, "Počeo je velikom", je udarna točka.
12:25
And so I tell people, well, I was trying to figure out
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I obično kažem ljudima da sam pokušao nači
12:28
the fastest way to turn a large fortune into a small one.
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najbrži način da pretvorim veliko bogatstvo u malo.
12:30
And they'd look at me, like, "Is he serious?"
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I sve me gledaju, kao, "Je li on ozbiljan?"
12:33
CA: And strangely, you were. So what happened?
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CA: I začuđujuće, bio si. Što se dogodilo?
12:38
EM: It was a close call. Things almost didn't work out.
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EM: Bilo je napeto i zamalo se i se nije ostvarilo.
12:41
We came very close to failure,
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Bili smo vrlo blizu neuspjehu,
12:43
but we managed to get through that point in 2008.
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ali smo to uspjeli prebroditi 2008. godine.
12:46
The goal of SpaceX is to try to advance rocket technology,
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Cilj SpaceXa je pokušati unaprijediti raketnu tehnologiju,
12:52
and in particular to try to crack a problem
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i posebno pokušati riješiti problem
12:54
that I think is vital
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za koji smatram da je od životne važnosti
12:56
for humanity to become a space-faring civilization,
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za čovječanstvo da postane civilizacija upoznata sa putovanjem svemirom,
12:58
which is to have a rapidly and fully reusable rocket.
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što uključuje i raketu za brzu i višekratnu primjenu.
13:03
CA: Would humanity become a space-faring civilization?
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CA: Hoće li putovanje svemirom postati dio naše civilizacije?
13:06
So that was a dream of yours, in a way, from a young age?
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Je li to bio tvoj sad, od djetinjstva?
13:10
You've dreamed of Mars and beyond?
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Sanjao si o Marsu i svemu što slijedi?
13:13
EM: I did build rockets when I was a kid,
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EM: Istina je da sam slagao rakete kao dijete,
13:15
but I didn't think I'd be involved in this.
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ali nisam mislio da ću se uplesti u ovakvo nešto.
13:17
It was really more from the standpoint of
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Gledao sam više na to kao
13:19
what are the things that need to happen in order for
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koje su stvari koje se moraju dogoditi kako bi
13:23
the future to be an exciting and inspiring one?
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budućnost bila uzbudljiva i inspirirajuća?
13:25
And I really think there's a fundamental difference,
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I stvarno mislim da postoji bitna razlika,
13:30
if you sort of look into the future,
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ako pogledate što nam donosi budućnost,
13:31
between a humanity that is a space-faring civilization,
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između čovječanstva koje putuje svemirom,
13:34
that's out there exploring the stars, on multiple planets,
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koje tamo istražuje zvijezde, na nekoliko planeta,
13:37
and I think that's really exciting,
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i mislim da je to stvarno uzbudljivo,
13:40
compared with one where we are forever confined to Earth
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uspoređujući to s onom verzijom gdje smo zauvijek ograničeni na Zemlju
13:43
until some eventual extinction event.
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do nekog mogućeg izumiranja.
13:45
CA: So you've somehow slashed the cost of building
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CA: Znači nekako ste smanjili trošak izgradnje
13:47
a rocket by 75 percent, depending on how you calculate it.
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rakete za sedamdesetpet posto, ovisno o računici.
13:50
How on Earth have you done that?
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Kako si samo to uspio učiniti?
13:53
NASA has been doing this for years. How have you done this?
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NASA već radi to godinama. Kak si to učinio?
13:56
EM: Well, we've made significant advances
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EM: Pa postigli smo značajna postignuća
13:58
in the technology of the airframe, the engines,
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u tehnologiji stvaranja trupa aviona, motora,
14:01
the electronics and the launch operation.
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elektroničkih uređaja i uređaja za pokretanje.
14:04
There's a long list of innovations
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Lista inovacija je duga,
14:07
that we've come up with there
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ona do koje smo došli,
14:09
that are a little difficult to communicate in this talk, but --
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koje je teško predočiti u ovom razgovoru, ali --
14:15
CA: Not least because you could still get copied, right?
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CA: Nije još puštena u javnost jer bi mogla biti kopirana, je li tako?
14:18
You haven't patented this stuff. It's really interesting to me.
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Još niste patentirali te proizvode. To mi se čini vrlo zanimljivo.
14:21
EM: No, we don't patent.CA: You didn't patent because you think it's
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EM: Ne, ne patentiramo.
Niste patentirali jer mislite da je
Niste patentirali jer mislite da je
14:23
more dangerous to patent than not to patent.
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opasnije patentirati nego ne.
14:26
EM: Since our primary competitors are national governments,
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EM: Pošto su naši primarni natjecatelji državne vlade,
14:28
the enforceability of patents is questionable.(Laughter) (Applause)
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izvršnost patenata je upitna.
(Smijeh)(Pljesak)
(Smijeh)(Pljesak)
14:33
CA: That's really, really interesting.
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CA: To je jako, jako zanimljvo.
14:36
But the big innovation is still ahead,
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Velike su inovacije još uvijek ispred nas,
14:39
and you're working on it now. Tell us about this.
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i vi radite na njima. Reci nam više o tome.
14:42
EM: Right, so the big innovation—
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EM: Da, znači velika je inovacija --
14:43
CA: In fact, let's roll that video and you can talk us through it, what's happening here.
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CA: Zapravo, hajmo prikazat taj video i možeš nam usput ispričati što se na njemu događa.
14:47
EM: Absolutely. So the thing about rockets is that
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EM: Naravno. Znači ono važno kod raketa je da
14:52
they're all expendable.
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su one sve potrošne.
14:53
All rockets that fly today are fully expendable.
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Sve rakete koje danas lete su u potpunosti potrošne.
14:55
The space shuttle was an attempt at a reusable rocket,
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Space shuttle je bio pokušaj stvaranja rakete za višekratnu upotrebu,
14:57
but even the main tank of the space shuttle was thrown away every time,
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ali čak i glavni spremnik space shuttlea bio odbačen svaki put,
15:00
and the parts that were reusable
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i dijelovi koji su se mogli ponovno iskoristiti
15:03
took a 10,000-person group nine months to refurbish for flight.
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su zahtjevali grupu od 10000 ljudi i devet mjeseci da je obnove za ponovni let.
15:08
So the space shuttle ended up costing a billion dollars per flight.
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Pa je konačna cijena space shuttlea bila oko 9 bilijuna dolara po letu.
15:11
Obviously that doesn't work very well for —
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Jasno je da to ne funkcionira dobro.
15:13
CA: What just happened there? We just saw something land?
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CA: Što se to upravo dogodilo? Je li nešto upravo sletjelo?
15:17
EM: That's right. So it's important that the rocket stages
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EM: Da. Znači važno je da raketa sleti tako da
15:21
be able to come back, to be able to return to the launch site
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se može vratiti natrah, da se može vratiti na polazište
15:24
and be ready to launch again within a matter of hours.
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i da se ponovno pokrene unutar nekoliko sati.
15:27
CA: Wow. Reusable rockets.EM: Yes. (Applause)
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CA: Wow. Višekratne rakete.
EM: Da. (Pljesak)
EM: Da. (Pljesak)
15:32
And so what a lot of people don't realize is,
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I što većina ljudi ne shvaća je da,
15:35
the cost of the fuel, of the propellant, is very small.
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je cijena goriva vrlo niska.
15:38
It's much like on a jet.
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Više je kao kod mlažnjaka.
15:39
So the cost of the propellant is about .3 percent
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Pa je trošak na gorivo oko 3%
15:43
of the cost of the rocket.
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troška rakete.
15:45
So it's possible to achieve, let's say,
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Pa je moguće postići, recimo,
15:47
roughly 100-fold improvement in the cost of spaceflight
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poboljšanje od oko 100 puta troška na let u svemir
15:50
if you can effectively reuse the rocket.
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ako možete učinkovito ponovno iskoristiti raketu.
15:53
That's why it's so important.
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To je razlog zašto je toliko važno.
15:54
Every mode of transport that we use,
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Svaki način prijevoza koji koristimo,
15:57
whether it's planes, trains, automobiles, bikes, horses,
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bilo da se radi o avionima, automobilima, biciklima, konjima,
16:00
is reusable, but not rockets.
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svi se mogu ponovno koristiti, ali ne i rakete.
16:02
So we must solve this problem in order to become a space-faring civilization.
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Dakle moramo riješiti tak problem kako bi postali civilizacija koja putuje svemirom.
16:05
CA: You asked me the question earlier
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CA: Postavio si mi pitanje prije
16:07
of how popular traveling on cruises would be
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o tome koliko bi popularno bilo krstarenje
16:10
if you had to burn your ships afterward.EM: Certain cruises are apparently highly problematic.
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kad bi nakon plovidbe trebali spaljivati brodove.
Određena krstarenja su očito jako problematična.
Određena krstarenja su očito jako problematična.
16:17
CA: Definitely more expensive.
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CA: I definitivno skuplja.
16:19
So that's potentially absolutely disruptive technology,
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Pa bi ta tehnologija mogla definitivno uzrokovati poremećaje,
16:23
and, I guess, paves the way for your dream to actually take,
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i, nagađam, otvoriti put snu da se zapravo počne,
16:27
at some point, to take humanity to Mars at scale.
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u određeno vrijeme, sa postupnim odlaskom čovječanstva na Mars.
16:31
You'd like to see a colony on Mars.
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Volio bih vidjeti koloniju na Marsu.
16:33
EM: Yeah, exactly. SpaceX, or some combination
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EM: Da, točno. SpaceX, ili neka druga kombinacija
16:37
of companies and governments, needs to make progress
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tvrka ili vladi, mora napredovati
16:40
in the direction of making life multi-planetary,
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u smjeru stvaranja života na više planeta,
16:43
of establishing a base on another planet,
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ili osnutka baze na drugom planetu,
16:46
on Mars -- being the only realistic option --
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na Marsu ... koji je jedina realna opcija..
16:49
and then building that base up
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i nakon toga nadogradnja te baze
16:50
until we're a true multi-planet species.
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dok ne postanemo stvarno vrsta koja naseljava više planeta.
16:53
CA: So progress on this "let's make it reusable,"
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CA: Znači napredak ovdje u "potrebno je učiniti je višekratnom",
16:56
how is that going? That was just a simulation video we saw.
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kako se tu krećete? Video koji smo vidjeli je bio samo simulacija.
17:00
How's it going?
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Kako napredujete?
17:01
EM: We're actually, we've been making some good progress recently
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EM: Zapravo, vrlo dobro napredujemo u zadnje vrijeme
17:04
with something we call the Grasshopper Test Project,
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sa nečim što zovemo Grasshopper Test Project,
17:06
where we're testing the vertical landing portion of the flight,
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gdje testiramo vertikalno slijetanje,
17:11
the sort of terminal portion which is quite tricky.
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dio koji je prilično zeznut.
17:13
And we've had some good tests.
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I radili smo na nekoliko dobrih testiranja.
17:16
CA: Can we see that?EM: Yeah.
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CA: Možemo li to vidjeti?
EM: Da.
EM: Da.
17:19
So that's just to give a sense of scale.
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Ovo je samo da doživite razinu.
17:20
We dressed a cowboy as Johnny Cash
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Odjenuli smo kauboja kao Johnny Cash
17:22
and bolted the mannequin to the rocket. (Laughter)
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i stavili lutku na raketu.
17:25
CA: All right, let's see that video then,
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CA: U redu, hajmo onda vidjet tu snimku
17:27
because this is actually amazing when you think about it.
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jer ovo je zapravo nevjerojatno kada bolje razmislite.
17:29
You've never seen this before. A rocket blasting off and then --
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NIkad ovo niste vidjeli. Lansiranje rakete i onda...
17:35
EM: Yeah, so that rocket is about the size
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EM: Da, raketa je otprilike veličine
17:37
of a 12-story building.
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zgrade od dvanaest katova.
17:40
(Rocket launch)
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(Lansiranje)
17:50
So now it's hovering at about 40 meters,
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Znači sada lebdi na oko 40 metara
17:54
and it's constantly adjusting
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i stalno poravnava
17:56
the angle, the pitch and yaw of the main engine,
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kut, nagib i kut skretanja glavnog motora,
17:59
and maintaining roll with coal gas thrusters.
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i održavanje kretanja sa propelerima plina kamenog ugljena.
18:09
CA: How cool is that? (Applause)
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CA: Nije li to odlično? (Pljesak)
18:16
Elon, how have you done this?
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Elon, kako si to postigao?
18:20
These projects are so -- Paypal, SolarCity,
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Ovi projekti: Paypal, Solarcity,
18:26
Tesla, SpaceX, they're so spectacularly different,
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Tesla, SpaceX, su toliko nevjerojatno drugačiji,
18:28
they're such ambitious projects at scale.
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toliko su ambiciozni projekti unutar ranga.
18:31
How on Earth has one person
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Kako, pobogu, je mogla samo jedna osoba
18:33
been able to innovate in this way?
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stvoriti toliko inovacija?
18:36
What is it about you?
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Što je to u tebi?
18:38
EM: I don't know, actually.
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EM: Ne znam, zapravo.
18:43
I don't have a good answer for you.
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Ne mogu ti dati dobar odgovor.
18:45
I work a lot. I mean, a lot.
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Radim puno. Stvarno puno.
18:49
CA: Well, I have a theory.EM: Okay. All right.
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CA: Zapravo imam teoriju.
OK, u redu.
OK, u redu.
18:51
CA: My theory is that you
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CA: Moja teorija je da ti
18:55
have an ability to think at a system level of design
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imaš sposobnost razmišljanja na razini dizajna
18:59
that pulls together design, technology and business,
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koji udružuje dizajn, tehnologiju i posao,
19:03
so if TED was TBD, design, technology and business,
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i da je TED TBD, dizajn, tehnologija i biznis,
19:06
into one package,
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u jednom
19:09
synthesize it in a way that very few people can and --
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sintetiziraj to na način da samo nekoliko ljudi može ...
19:11
and this is the critical thing -- feel so damn confident
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i ovo je kritika ... da osjeća toliko prokleto samopouzdano
19:15
in that clicked-together package that you take crazy risks.
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u tome spoji koji funkcionira da ludi riskiraš.
19:20
You bet your fortune on it, and you seem to have done that multiple times.
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Uložio si svoje bogatstvo, i mislim da si to napravio više puta.
19:25
I mean, almost no one can do that.
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Mislim, skoro nitko to ne može.
19:27
Is that -- could we have some of that secret sauce?
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Je li to -- možemo li doznati dio tajne?
19:30
Can we put it into our education system? Can someone learn from you?
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Možemo li to staviti u naše obrazovni sustav? Može li se učiti od tebe?
19:33
It is truly amazing what you've done.
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Stvarno je nevjerojatno što si učinio.
19:35
EM: Well, thanks. Thank you.
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EM: Pa, hvala. Hvala ti.
19:37
Well, I do think there's a good framework for thinking.
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Doista mislim da postoji nekoliko okvira unutar kojih razmišljati.
19:42
It is physics. You know, the sort of first principles reasoning.
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To je fizika. Znaš, prvi principi razmišljanja.
19:45
Generally I think there are -- what I mean by that is,
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Generalno mislim da postoje -- ono što želim reći je da,
19:49
boil things down to their fundamental truths
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doći do korijena stvari
19:53
and reason up from there,
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i prosuđivati od tuda,
19:54
as opposed to reasoning by analogy.
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kao kontrast analognom prosuđivanju.
19:57
Through most of our life, we get through life
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Kroz većinu našeg života, idemo kroz život
19:59
by reasoning by analogy,
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analognim razmišljanjem
20:00
which essentially means copying what other people do with slight variations.
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što je zapravo kopiranje što drugi ljudi radi sa malim varijacijama.
20:04
And you have to do that.
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I to je ono što morate učiniti.
20:05
Otherwise, mentally, you wouldn't be able to get through the day.
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Ako ne, mentalno, ne možete doći do kraja dana.
20:10
But when you want to do something new,
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I kada želite nešto novo,
20:12
you have to apply the physics approach.
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morate upotrijebiti fizikalni pristup.
20:16
Physics is really figuring out how to discover
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Fizika se stvarno bavi time kako otkriti
20:18
new things that are counterintuitive, like quantum mechanics.
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nove stvari koje su protuintuitivne, kao kvantna mehanika.
20:20
It's really counterintuitive.
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To je stvarno protuintuitivno.
20:22
So I think that's an important thing to do,
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I mislim da je to važno za učiniti,
20:25
and then also to really pay attention to negative feedback,
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i nakon toga dati pažnju negativnoj povratnoj informaciji
20:29
and solicit it, particularly from friends.
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i zatražiti je, posebno od prijatelja.
20:32
This may sound like simple advice,
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Ovo mi moglo zvučati kao jednostavan savjet,
20:35
but hardly anyone does that,
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ali skoro nitko to ne radi,
20:37
and it's incredibly helpful.
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i od nevjerojatne je pomoći.
20:40
CA: Boys and girls watching, study physics.
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CA: Mladići i djevoje koji gledate, učite fiziku.
20:43
Learn from this man.
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Učite od ovog čovjeka.
20:44
Elon Musk, I wish we had all day, but thank you so much for coming to TED.
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Elon Musk, kada bi barem imali cijeli dan ali hvala ti što si došao u TED.
20:48
EM: Thank you. CA: That was awesome. That was really, really cool.
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EM: Hvala. Bilo je super. CA: Stvarno je bilo odlično.
20:51
Look at that. (Applause)
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Gledaj ovo. (Pljesak)
20:54
Just take a bow. That was fantastic.
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Nakloni se. Bilo je odlično.
20:58
Thank you so much.
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Hvala vam puno.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Elon Musk - Serial entrepreneurElon Musk is the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors and the CEO/CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX).
Why you should listen
At SpaceX, Musk oversees the development of rockets and spacecraft for missions to Earth orbit and ultimately to other planets. In 2008, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft won the NASA contract to provide cargo transport to space. In 2012, SpaceX became the first commercial company to dock with the International Space Station and return cargo to Earth with the Dragon.
At Tesla, Musk has overseen product development and design from the beginning, including the all-electric Tesla Roadster, Model S and Model X, and the rollout of Supercharger stations to keep the cars juiced up. (Some of the charging stations use solar energy systems from SolarCity, of which Musk is the non-executive chair.) Transitioning to a sustainable energy economy, in which electric vehicles play a pivotal role, has been one of his central interests for almost two decades. He co-founded PayPal and served as the company's chair and CEO.
Elon Musk | Speaker | TED.com