TEDSalon NY2014
Naomi Oreskes: Why we should trust scientists
内奥米•奥莱斯克斯: 我们为什么要相信科学家？
Filmed:
Readability: 4.7
1,316,791 views
许多世界上的重大问题都需要科学家来解答，但是我们为什么要相信科学家的话呢？科学史学家内奥米•奥莱斯克斯(Naomi Oreskes)深刻思考了我们与信仰的关系，并指出三处我们通常对于科学探索所持态度的不妥之处，同时给出了关于我们为什么要相信科学的论述。
Naomi Oreskes - Historian of science
Naomi Oreskes is a historian of science who uses reason to fight climate change denial. Full bio
Naomi Oreskes is a historian of science who uses reason to fight climate change denial. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Every day we face issues like climate change
0
930
3128
每天，我们都面对着像气候变化或
00:16
or the safety of vaccines
1
4058
1430
疫苗安全这样的问题，
00:17
where we have to answer questions whose answers
2
5488
3040
而对这些问题的解答
00:20
rely heavily on scientific information.
3
8528
3461
都仰仗于科学知识。
00:23
Scientists tell us that the world is warming.
4
11989
2881
科学家告诉我们世界正在变暖。
00:26
Scientists tell us that vaccines are safe.
5
14870
2541
科学家告诉我们疫苗是安全的。
00:29
But how do we know if they are right?
6
17411
2054
但我们怎么知道他们说的是对的呢？
00:31
Why should be believe the science?
7
19465
1964
为什么我们要相信科学呢？
00:33
The fact is, many of us actually
don't believe the science.
don't believe the science.
8
21429
3469
事实是，我们中的大多数人
实际上不相信科学。
实际上不相信科学。
00:36
Public opinion polls consistently show
9
24898
2176
民意调查一贯表明，
00:39
that significant proportions of the American people
10
27074
3010
有相当一部分美国人
00:42
don't believe the climate is
warming due to human activities,
warming due to human activities,
11
30084
3541
不相信气候正在变暖是由于人类活动，
00:45
don't think that there is
evolution by natural selection,
evolution by natural selection,
12
33625
2939
不相信有自然选择的生物演化，
00:48
and aren't persuaded by the safety of vaccines.
13
36564
3901
并且不相信疫苗的安全性。
00:52
So why should we believe the science?
14
40465
3631
那么我们为什么要相信科学呢？
00:56
Well, scientists don't like talking about
science as a matter of belief.
science as a matter of belief.
15
44096
3611
好吧，科学家并不喜欢把
科学当作一种信念来讨论。
科学当作一种信念来讨论。
00:59
In fact, they would contrast science with faith,
16
47707
2587
事实上，他们会把科学与信仰相对，
01:02
and they would say belief is the domain of faith.
17
50294
2966
并且会说信念是信仰的一部分。
01:05
And faith is a separate thing
apart and distinct from science.
apart and distinct from science.
18
53260
3778
而信仰是一个处在科学之外，
与其截然不同的东西。
与其截然不同的东西。
01:09
Indeed they would say religion is based on faith
19
57038
3152
事实上他们会说宗教是基于信仰的，
01:12
or maybe the calculus of Pascal's wager.
20
60190
3694
或是基于帕斯卡赌注的演算。
01:15
Blaise Pascal was a 17th-century mathematician
21
63884
2676
布莱兹·帕斯卡是一位17世纪的数学家，
01:18
who tried to bring scientific
reasoning to the question of
reasoning to the question of
22
66560
2810
他试着将科学的论证引入
01:21
whether or not he should believe in God,
23
69370
1872
他是否该信仰上帝这一问题，
01:23
and his wager went like this:
24
71242
2604
他的赌注如下：
01:25
Well, if God doesn't exist
25
73846
2549
好吧，如果上帝不存在，
01:28
but I decide to believe in him
26
76395
2025
但我决定信仰他，
01:30
nothing much is really lost.
27
78420
1978
没有什么大的损失。
01:32
Maybe a few hours on Sunday.
28
80398
1613
也许只是周日要花掉几个小时。
01:34
(Laughter)
29
82011
993
（众人笑。）
（译注：基督教周日礼拜。）
（译注：基督教周日礼拜。）
01:35
But if he does exist and I don't believe in him,
30
83004
3381
但如果他存在但我不信仰他，
01:38
then I'm in deep trouble.
31
86385
2017
那我就有很大的麻烦了。
01:40
And so Pascal said, we'd better believe in God.
32
88402
3036
所以帕斯卡说我们最好相信上帝，
01:43
Or as one of my college professors said,
33
91438
2172
或者像我的一个大学教授所说，
01:45
"He clutched for the handrail of faith."
34
93610
2226
“他紧紧抓住了信仰的扶手。”
01:47
He made that leap of faith
35
95836
1936
帕斯卡最终选择了信仰，
01:49
leaving science and rationalism behind.
36
97772
4524
放下了科学与理性。
01:54
Now the fact is though, for most of us,
37
102296
2696
事实是对我们中的大多数人，
大多数科学结论都是一种信仰。
01:56
most scientific claims are a leap of faith.
38
104992
3134
02:00
We can't really judge scientific
claims for ourselves in most cases.
claims for ourselves in most cases.
39
108126
4385
在大多数时候，
我们并不能亲自验证科学结论。
我们并不能亲自验证科学结论。
02:04
And indeed this is actually
true for most scientists as well
true for most scientists as well
40
112511
2840
事实上在专业领域之外，
02:07
outside of their own specialties.
41
115351
2330
对于大多是科学家来说也是这样。
02:09
So if you think about it, a geologist can't tell you
42
117681
2520
所以就算你想知道一个疫苗是否安全，
02:12
whether a vaccine is safe.
43
120201
1750
一个地质学家也不能告诉你答案。
02:13
Most chemists are not experts in evolutionary theory.
44
121951
3000
大多数化学家也不是进化论的专家。
02:16
A physicist cannot tell you,
45
124951
2259
一个物理学家不能告诉你，
02:19
despite the claims of some of them,
46
127210
1443
烟草是否致癌，
02:20
whether or not tobacco causes cancer.
47
128653
3354
尽管他们中的一些说自己能。
02:24
So, if even scientists themselves
48
132007
2450
所以，如果连科学家
02:26
have to make a leap of faith
49
134457
1276
在自己的专业领域之外
02:27
outside their own fields,
50
135733
1922
都得相信无法感知的结论，
02:29
then why do they accept the
claims of other scientists?
claims of other scientists?
51
137655
3928
那么这些科学家为什么要相信
其他科学家的断言呢？
其他科学家的断言呢？
02:33
Why do they believe each other's claims?
52
141583
2298
为什么他们要相信彼此的结论？
02:35
And should we believe those claims?
53
143881
3290
我们也应该相信这些结论吗？
02:39
So what I'd like to argue is yes, we should,
54
147171
2776
所以我的答案是”没错，我们应该相信。“
02:41
but not for the reason that most of us think.
55
149947
2883
但不是由于我们大多数人所想的原因。
02:44
Most of us were taught in school
that the reason we should
that the reason we should
56
152830
2330
学校教诲我们大多数人
02:47
believe in science is because of the scientific method.
57
155160
3412
要相信科学是因为那些科学方法。
02:50
We were taught that scientists follow a method
58
158572
2916
我们了解到科学家是遵从某种方法，
02:53
and that this method guarantees
59
161488
2356
并且这个方法保证了
02:55
the truth of their claims.
60
163844
1996
他们结论的正确性。
02:57
The method that most of us were taught in school,
61
165840
3420
大多数人在学校学到的这种方法，
03:01
we can call it the textbook method,
62
169260
1576
我们称之为教科书方法，
03:02
is the hypothetical deductive method.
63
170836
2784
是一种假设性的演绎推理。
03:05
According to the standard
model, the textbook model,
model, the textbook model,
64
173620
3094
根据标准的模型，即教科书模型，
03:08
scientists develop hypotheses, they deduce
65
176714
2957
科学家发展了假说，
03:11
the consequences of those hypotheses,
66
179671
2460
并推理出这些假说的结果，
03:14
and then they go out into the world and they say,
67
182131
1710
然后他们对全世界宣称，
03:15
"Okay, well are those consequences true?"
68
183841
2374
“好的，这些结果正确吗？”
03:18
Can we observe them taking
place in the natural world?
place in the natural world?
69
186215
3333
我们能够观测到
它们在自然界中发生吗？
它们在自然界中发生吗？
03:21
And if they are true, then the scientists say,
70
189548
2600
如果它们是正确的，那么科学家说，
03:24
"Great, we know the hypothesis is correct."
71
192148
2856
“好的，我们知道假设是正确的。”
03:27
So there are many famous examples in the history
72
195004
2179
所以历史上有许多著名的
03:29
of science of scientists doing exactly this.
73
197183
2879
关于科学家们做了这件事的例子。
03:32
One of the most famous examples
74
200062
2058
最著名的例子之一
03:34
comes from the work of Albert Einstein.
75
202120
2213
来自爱因斯坦的工作。
03:36
When Einstein developed the
theory of general relativity,
theory of general relativity,
76
204333
2522
当爱因斯坦发展他的广义相对论时，
03:38
one of the consequences of his theory
77
206855
2316
理论的一个结果是
03:41
was that space-time wasn't just an empty void
78
209171
2839
时空并不是空空如也，
03:44
but that it actually had a fabric.
79
212010
1909
而是有一个网状结构。
03:45
And that that fabric was bent
80
213919
1601
那种结构会在大质量物体
03:47
in the presence of massive objects like the sun.
81
215520
3380
比如太阳的附近弯曲。
03:50
So if this theory were true then it meant that light
82
218900
2749
所以如果这个理论是正确的,
03:53
as it passed the sun
83
221649
1528
那么当光线经过太阳时，
03:55
should actually be bent around it.
84
223177
2168
会在太阳附近被弯曲。
03:57
That was a pretty startling prediction
85
225345
2400
这是一个很惊人的预测，
03:59
and it took a few years before scientists
86
227745
1988
科学家花了很多年
04:01
were able to test it
87
229733
1278
才验证了它，
04:03
but they did test it in 1919,
88
231011
2510
但是他们确实在1919年进行了验证，
04:05
and lo and behold it turned out to be true.
89
233521
2450
并且结果是正确的。
04:07
Starlight actually does bend
as it travels around the sun.
as it travels around the sun.
90
235971
3158
星光确实在经过太阳附近时被弯曲。
04:11
This was a huge confirmation of the theory.
91
239129
2494
这是对广义相对论的一个重要肯定，
04:13
It was considered proof of the truth
92
241623
1805
这被认为是对广义相对论
04:15
of this radical new idea,
93
243428
1312
这一新颖理论的证明，
04:16
and it was written up in many newspapers
94
244740
1852
这次验证也被全球许多报纸
04:18
around the globe.
95
246592
2538
报道了。
04:21
Now, sometimes this theory or this model
96
249130
2350
有时候这些理论和模型
04:23
is referred to as the deductive-nomological model,
97
251480
3434
被称为演绎-规律模型（D-N模型），
04:26
mainly because academics like
to make things complicated.
to make things complicated.
98
254914
3384
主要是因为学者喜欢让事情复杂化。
04:30
But also because in the ideal case, it's about laws.
99
258298
5261
但也是因为在理想状态下，这是法则。
04:35
So nomological means having to do with laws.
100
263559
2502
Nomological表示要遵循法则。
04:38
And in the ideal case, the hypothesis isn't just an idea:
101
266061
3424
在理想情况下，假说不仅仅是一个想法：
04:41
ideally, it is a law of nature.
102
269485
2326
它是自然法则。
04:43
Why does it matter that it is a law of nature?
103
271811
2287
为什么自然法则很重要呢？
04:46
Because if it is a law, it can't be broken.
104
274098
2728
因为法则不能被打破。
04:48
If it's a law then it will always be true
105
276826
2108
法则一定是正确的，
04:50
in all times and all places
106
278934
1244
不管何时何地，
04:52
no matter what the circumstances are.
107
280178
2206
不管在什么情况下。
04:54
And all of you know of at least
one example of a famous law:
one example of a famous law:
108
282384
3229
你们大概都知道一个著名的法则：
04:57
Einstein's famous equation, E=MC2,
109
285613
3755
爱因斯坦的著名等式，E=mc^2，
05:01
which tells us what the relationship is
110
289368
1800
它告诉了我们能量和
05:03
between energy and mass.
111
291168
2193
质量的关系。
05:05
And that relationship is true no matter what.
112
293361
4000
这个关系在任何情况下都成立。
05:09
Now, it turns out, though, that there
are several problems with this model.
are several problems with this model.
113
297361
3649
但结果表明，
似乎这个模型有一些问题。
似乎这个模型有一些问题。
05:13
The main problem is that it's wrong.
114
301010
3635
最主要的问题就是这个模型是错的。
05:16
It's just not true. (Laughter)
115
304645
3502
它不是正确的。
（笑声）
（笑声）
05:20
And I'm going to talk about
three reasons why it's wrong.
three reasons why it's wrong.
116
308147
2723
我想讲讲三个原因，
为什么说它是错的。
为什么说它是错的。
05:22
So the first reason is a logical reason.
117
310870
2679
第一个是逻辑问题。
05:25
It's the problem of the fallacy
of affirming the consequent.
of affirming the consequent.
118
313549
3516
问题在于荒谬地断定结果。
05:29
So that's another fancy, academic way of saying
119
317065
2826
这是另一种幻想，用学术术语称为
05:31
that false theories can make true predictions.
120
319891
2670
错误的理论得出正确的预测。
05:34
So just because the prediction comes true
121
322561
1994
所以仅仅因为预测是正确的，
05:36
doesn't actually logically
prove that the theory is correct.
prove that the theory is correct.
122
324555
3222
并不能从逻辑上证明理论是正确的。
05:39
And I have a good example of that too,
again from the history of science.
again from the history of science.
123
327777
3931
科学史上有一个很好的例子。
05:43
This is a picture of the Ptolemaic universe
124
331708
2695
这是一幅展现托勒密宇宙的图，
05:46
with the Earth at the center of the universe
125
334403
1862
地球在宇宙中心，
05:48
and the sun and the planets going around it.
126
336265
2595
太阳和行星都围绕它运行。
05:50
The Ptolemaic model was believed
127
338860
2030
托勒密模型在多个世纪中
05:52
by many very smart people for many centuries.
128
340890
3253
都被很多聪明人所接纳。
05:56
Well, why?
129
344143
1736
为什么？
05:57
Well the answer is because it made
lots of predictions that came true.
lots of predictions that came true.
130
345879
3437
因为由它进行的许多预测
都被证明是正确的。
都被证明是正确的。
06:01
The Ptolemaic system enabled astronomers
131
349316
2016
托勒密系统使得天文学家
06:03
to make accurate predictions
of the motions of the planet,
of the motions of the planet,
132
351332
2750
对行星运行做出准确的预测，
06:06
in fact more accurate predictions at first
133
354082
2519
事实上甚至比哥白尼理论
在最初时更准确，
在最初时更准确，
06:08
than the Copernican theory
which we now would say is true.
which we now would say is true.
134
356601
4324
虽然后者现在被公认是正确的。
06:12
So that's one problem with the textbook model.
135
360925
2982
所以这是教科书模型的一个问题。
06:15
A second problem is a practical problem,
136
363907
2396
第二个问题是一个实际问题，
06:18
and it's the problem of auxiliary hypotheses.
137
366303
3235
问题在于辅助假说。
06:21
Auxiliary hypotheses are assumptions
138
369538
2829
辅助假说是科学家
06:24
that scientists are making
139
372367
1779
做出的假设，
06:26
that they may or may not even
be aware that they're making.
be aware that they're making.
140
374146
3043
他们可能甚至没意识到
自己做出了这个假设。
自己做出了这个假设。
06:29
So an important example of this
141
377189
2661
一个很重要的例子是
06:31
comes from the Copernican model,
142
379850
2095
哥白尼模型，
06:33
which ultimately replaced the Ptolemaic system.
143
381945
3192
它最终取代了托勒密模型。
06:37
So when Nicolaus Copernicus said,
144
385137
2040
所以当尼古拉斯哥白尼宣称
06:39
actually the Earth is not the center of the universe,
145
387177
2650
事实上地球不是宇宙的中心，
06:41
the sun is the center of the solar system,
146
389827
1918
太阳是太阳系的中心，
06:43
the Earth moves around the sun.
147
391745
1382
地球围绕着太阳旋转，
06:45
Scientists said, well okay, Nicolaus, if that's true
148
393127
3728
科学家说，好吧，尼古拉斯，
如果这是对的，
如果这是对的，
06:48
we ought to be able to detect the motion
149
396855
1764
我们应该能检测出地球围绕
06:50
of the Earth around the sun.
150
398619
1958
太阳的运动。
06:52
And so this slide here illustrates a concept
151
400577
2056
这一页幻灯片展示了这个概念，
06:54
known as stellar parallax.
152
402633
1808
叫做星球视差。
06:56
And astronomers said, if the Earth is moving
153
404441
3822
天文家说，如果地球是运动的
07:00
and we look at a prominent star, let's say, Sirius --
154
408263
3200
我们关注一个显眼的星星，
比如天狼星——
比如天狼星——
07:03
well I know I'm in Manhattan
so you guys can't see the stars,
so you guys can't see the stars,
155
411463
2414
在曼哈顿可能看不到这颗星星，
07:05
but imagine you're out in the country,
imagine you chose that rural life —
imagine you chose that rural life —
156
413877
3731
但想象你在乡村，你过着田园生活，
07:09
and we look at a star in December, we see that star
157
417608
2867
在十二月我们看着那个星星，
07:12
against the backdrop of distant stars.
158
420475
2765
以其他遥远的星星做背景。
07:15
If we now make the same observation six months later
159
423240
2954
而六个月之后，
如果我们做同样的观察，
如果我们做同样的观察，
07:18
when the Earth has moved to this position in June,
160
426194
3812
在六月，地球已经移动到了这个位置，
07:22
we look at that same star and we
see it against a different backdrop.
see it against a different backdrop.
161
430006
4099
我们观察同样的星星
应该看到不同的背景。
应该看到不同的背景。
07:26
That difference, that angular
difference, is the stellar parallax.
difference, is the stellar parallax.
162
434105
4182
这个视角的差异被称为星球视差。
07:30
So this is a prediction that the Copernican model makes.
163
438287
2863
这就是哥白尼模型做出的预测。
07:33
Astronomers looked for the stellar parallax
164
441150
2561
天文学家想找到星球视差，
07:35
and they found nothing, nothing at all.
165
443711
4982
但他们找不到任何差异。
07:40
And many people argued that this proved
that the Copernican model was false.
that the Copernican model was false.
166
448693
3866
许多人称这证明了哥白尼模型
是错误的。
是错误的。
07:44
So what happened?
167
452559
1488
怎么回事呢？
07:46
Well, in hindsight we can say
that astronomers were making
that astronomers were making
168
454047
2683
事后我们能说天文学家
07:48
two auxiliary hypotheses, both of which
169
456730
2547
做出了两个假设，
07:51
we would now say were incorrect.
170
459277
2663
现在被公认都是错误的。
07:53
The first was an assumption
about the size of the Earth's orbit.
about the size of the Earth's orbit.
171
461940
3635
第一个是关于地球轨道大小的假设。
07:57
Astronomers were assuming
that the Earth's orbit was large
that the Earth's orbit was large
172
465575
3036
天文学家假定地球的轨道很大，
08:00
relative to the distance to the stars.
173
468611
2338
相较于星星的距离。
08:02
Today we would draw the picture more like this,
174
470949
2464
今天我们会画出一个这样的图案
08:05
this comes from NASA,
175
473413
1347
来自NASA。
08:06
and you see the Earth's orbit is actually quite small.
176
474760
2423
可以看到地球的轨道非常小。
08:09
In fact, it's actually much
smaller even than shown here.
smaller even than shown here.
177
477183
2991
事实上可能比这显示的更小。
08:12
The stellar parallax therefore,
178
480174
1539
因此，星球视差
08:13
is very small and actually very hard to detect.
179
481713
3584
会非常小，而且难以探测。
08:17
And that leads to the second reason
180
485297
1974
这也引出了另一个原因，
08:19
why the prediction didn't work,
181
487271
1859
为什么这个预测不准确。
08:21
because scientists were also assuming
182
489130
1915
因为科学家也假定
08:23
that the telescopes they had were sensitive enough
183
491045
3010
他们的天文望远镜足够灵敏，
08:26
to detect the parallax.
184
494055
1900
足以检测到这个视差。
08:27
And that turned out not to be true.
185
495955
2017
后来证明是错的。
08:29
It wasn't until the 19th century
186
497972
2534
直到19世纪
08:32
that scientists were able to detect
187
500506
1684
科学家才能检测出
08:34
the stellar parallax.
188
502190
1536
星球视差。
08:35
So, there's a third problem as well.
189
503726
2646
还有第三个问题。
08:38
The third problem is simply a factual problem,
190
506372
2778
这是现实问题，
08:41
that a lot of science doesn't fit the textbook model.
191
509150
2816
许多的科学不适用教科书模型。
08:43
A lot of science isn't deductive at all,
192
511966
2273
许多的科学根本不是演绎，
08:46
it's actually inductive.
193
514239
1768
而是归纳出来的。
08:48
And by that we mean that scientists don't necessarily
194
516007
2516
这样的话，科学家并不需要
08:50
start with theories and hypotheses,
195
518523
2231
由理论和假设出发，
08:52
often they just start with observations
196
520754
1869
通常他们只是从观察出发，
08:54
of stuff going on in the world.
197
522623
2409
观察世界上的的一切。
08:57
And the most famous example
of that is one of the most
of that is one of the most
198
525032
2570
最著名的例子是
08:59
famous scientists who ever lived, Charles Darwin.
199
527602
3065
最著名的科学家，查尔斯·达尔文。
09:02
When Darwin went out as a young
man on the voyage of the Beagle,
man on the voyage of the Beagle,
200
530667
3162
当达尔文还年轻，在比格号上航行时，
09:05
he didn't have a hypothesis, he didn't have a theory.
201
533829
3612
他没有假设，他没有理论。
09:09
He just knew that he wanted
to have a career as a scientist
to have a career as a scientist
202
537441
3066
他只知道他希望成为科学家，
09:12
and he started to collect data.
203
540507
2012
他开始收集数据。
09:14
Mainly he knew that he hated medicine
204
542519
2730
主要是因为他讨厌医学，
09:17
because the sight of blood made him sick so
205
545249
1818
因为他晕血，
09:19
he had to have an alternative career path.
206
547067
2268
所以他必须选择另一条职业道路。
09:21
So he started collecting data.
207
549335
2134
所以他开始收集数据。
09:23
And he collected many things,
including his famous finches.
including his famous finches.
208
551469
3166
他收集许多的东西，
包括他著名的雀鸟。
包括他著名的雀鸟。
09:26
When he collected these finches,
he threw them in a bag
he threw them in a bag
209
554635
2210
他收集这些雀鸟的时候，
会把它们扔到袋子里，
会把它们扔到袋子里，
09:28
and he had no idea what they meant.
210
556845
2340
他并不知道它们意味着什么。
09:31
Many years later back in London,
211
559185
2287
许多年以后回到伦敦时，
09:33
Darwin looked at his data again and began
212
561472
2233
达尔文再次翻看他的数据，
09:35
to develop an explanation,
213
563705
2448
开始做出了一些解释，
09:38
and that explanation was the
theory of natural selection.
theory of natural selection.
214
566153
3298
这个解释就是自然选择论。
09:41
Besides inductive science,
215
569451
2059
除了归纳科学，
09:43
scientists also often participate in modeling.
216
571510
2936
科学家也常常进行建模。
09:46
One of the things scientists want to do in life
217
574446
2336
他们一生中最想做的事情
09:48
is to explain the causes of things.
218
576782
2268
就是解释事情的起因。
09:51
And how do we do that?
219
579050
1518
我们怎么做呢？
09:52
Well, one way you can do it is to build a model
220
580568
2252
建立模型是一个方法，
09:54
that tests an idea.
221
582820
1742
可以用来测试一个想法。
09:56
So this is a picture of Henry Cadell,
222
584562
1931
这是亨利卡德尔的照片，
09:58
who was a Scottish geologist in the 19th century.
223
586493
2866
他是19世纪的苏格兰地理学家。
10:01
You can tell he's Scottish because he's wearing
224
589359
1433
从服饰可以看出他是一个苏格兰人，
10:02
a deerstalker cap and Wellington boots.
225
590792
2388
猎鹿帽和威林顿靴。
10:05
(Laughter)
226
593180
2154
（笑声）
10:07
And Cadell wanted to answer the question,
227
595334
1566
卡德尔希望能回答这个问题，
10:08
how are mountains formed?
228
596900
1768
山是怎么形成的？
10:10
And one of the things he had observed
229
598668
1516
他观察到的一个事情是,
10:12
is that if you look at mountains
like the Appalachians,
like the Appalachians,
230
600184
2574
如果你注视山，比如阿帕拉契山脉时,
10:14
you often find that the rocks in them
231
602758
1633
你会发现山中的石头
10:16
are folded,
232
604391
1469
是叠层的，
10:17
and they're folded in a particular way,
233
605860
1646
它们由特定的方式堆叠而成，
10:19
which suggested to him
234
607506
1444
这显示
10:20
that they were actually being
compressed from the side.
compressed from the side.
235
608950
2949
它们是由两侧挤压而成的。
10:23
And this idea would later play a major role
236
611899
2088
这个想法在之后的
10:25
in discussions of continental drift.
237
613987
2423
大陆漂移假说中扮演了重要角色。
10:28
So he built this model, this crazy contraption
238
616410
2506
所以他建造了这个模型，
这个疯狂的装置，
这个疯狂的装置，
10:30
with levers and wood, and here's his wheelbarrow,
239
618916
2152
有杠杆、木头、独轮车、
10:33
buckets, a big sledgehammer.
240
621068
2442
木桶、大锤子，
10:35
I don't know why he's got the Wellington boots.
241
623510
1898
我不知道他什么要穿威林顿靴。
10:37
Maybe it's going to rain.
242
625408
1577
也许要下雨了吧。
10:38
And he created this physical model in order
243
626985
3085
他建造了这个实物模型，
10:42
to demonstrate that you could, in fact, create
244
630070
3965
用来证明你事实上能在石头上，
10:46
patterns in rocks, or at least, in this case, in mud,
245
634035
2674
或至少像这样在泥土上制造
10:48
that looked a lot like mountains
246
636709
2226
山石那样的纹路，
10:50
if you compressed them from the side.
247
638935
1842
只需要从侧面挤压它们。
10:52
So it was an argument about
the cause of mountains.
the cause of mountains.
248
640777
3628
这是关于山体形成的论证。
10:56
Nowadays, most scientists prefer to work inside,
249
644405
3048
如今，科学家们更希望
进行深入的研究，
进行深入的研究，
10:59
so they don't build physical models so much
250
647453
2427
他们并不常常建立实物模型，
11:01
as to make computer simulations.
251
649880
2361
而是用计算机模拟。
11:04
But a computer simulation is a kind of a model.
252
652241
2839
但计算机模拟仅仅是一个模型。
11:07
It's a model that's made with mathematics,
253
655080
1863
一个数学模型，
11:08
and like the physical models of the 19th century,
254
656943
3233
正如19世纪的实物模型一样，
11:12
it's very important for thinking about causes.
255
660176
3778
思考起因是非常重要的。
11:15
So one of the big questions
to do with climate change,
to do with climate change,
256
663954
2615
所以应对气候变化最重要的问题就是，
11:18
we have tremendous amounts of evidence
257
666569
1803
我们有大量的证据表明
11:20
that the Earth is warming up.
258
668372
1880
地球正在升温。
11:22
This slide here, the black line shows
259
670252
2464
这页幻灯片中，黑色的线条显示
11:24
the measurements that scientists have taken
260
672716
2120
科学家们测量的
11:26
for the last 150 years
261
674836
1963
过去150年的统计结果，
11:28
showing that the Earth's temperature
262
676799
1410
显示了地球的温度
11:30
has steadily increased,
263
678209
1634
正在稳步升高，
11:31
and you can see in particular
that in the last 50 years
that in the last 50 years
264
679843
2846
尤其是最近的50年
11:34
there's been this dramatic increase
265
682689
1764
上升是显著的，
11:36
of nearly one degree centigrade,
266
684453
2340
几乎是1摄氏度，
11:38
or almost two degrees Fahrenheit.
267
686793
2375
或2华氏度。
11:41
So what, though, is driving that change?
268
689168
2437
那么是什么驱动了这个改变呢？
11:43
How can we know what's causing
269
691605
2335
我们怎么知道是什么导致了
11:45
the observed warming?
270
693940
1516
这么明显的升温呢？
11:47
Well, scientists can model it
271
695456
1714
科学家可以建模，
11:49
using a computer simulation.
272
697170
2368
用计算机进行模拟。
11:51
So this diagram illustrates a computer simulation
273
699538
2792
这张图展示了计算机模拟，
11:54
that has looked at all the different factors
274
702330
2121
考虑了各种
11:56
that we know can influence the Earth's climate,
275
704451
2605
可能影响地球气候的因素，
11:59
so sulfate particles from air pollution,
276
707056
2752
从空气污染中的硫酸盐颗粒，
12:01
volcanic dust from volcanic eruptions,
277
709808
2970
到火山喷发中的火山灰，
12:04
changes in solar radiation,
278
712778
2234
到太阳辐射的改变，
12:07
and, of course, greenhouse gases.
279
715012
2378
当然，还有温室气体。
12:09
And they asked the question,
280
717390
1818
他们问了这样一个问题，
12:11
what set of variables put into a model
281
719208
3696
在模型中加入什么样的变量
12:14
will reproduce what we actually see in real life?
282
722904
2976
能再现我们在真实生活中
看到的情况呢？
看到的情况呢？
12:17
So here is the real life in black.
283
725880
2020
黑线表示真实观察的数据，
12:19
Here's the model in this light gray,
284
727900
2280
浅灰色表示模拟的数据，
12:22
and the answer is
285
730180
1560
答案是
12:23
a model that includes, it's the answer E on that SAT,
286
731740
4387
在上述的模拟中加入SAT考试中的E，
12:28
all of the above.
287
736127
2141
也就是以上皆有。
（译注：SAT考试中最常见答案）
（译注：SAT考试中最常见答案）
12:30
The only way you can reproduce
288
738268
1506
能再现所观察到的
12:31
the observed temperature measurements
289
739774
1828
温度测量数据的唯一的方法，
12:33
is with all of these things put together,
290
741602
1978
就是把所有的东西放到一起，
12:35
including greenhouse gases,
291
743580
2139
包括温室气体，
12:37
and in particular you can see that the increase
292
745719
2551
特别是我们可以观察到
12:40
in greenhouse gases tracks
293
748270
1884
在对温室气体数据
12:42
this very dramatic increase in temperature
294
750154
2206
追踪时显示温度的上升，
12:44
over the last 50 years.
295
752360
1480
在过去的50年非常明显。
12:45
And so this is why climate scientists say
296
753840
2434
所以这就是为什么气候学家称
12:48
it's not just that we know that
climate change is happening,
climate change is happening,
297
756274
3108
我们不仅仅知道气候变化正在发生，
12:51
we know that greenhouse gases are a major part
298
759382
2768
我们还知道温室气体是主要的
12:54
of the reason why.
299
762150
2730
影响因素。
12:56
So now because there all these different things
300
764880
2388
由于科学家做的这些
12:59
that scientists do,
301
767268
1489
各种各样的事情，
13:00
the philosopher Paul Feyerabend famously said,
302
768757
3486
哲学家保罗·费耶阿本德
说过一句名言，
说过一句名言，
13:04
"The only principle in science
303
772243
1626
“在不影响进步的情况下，
13:05
that doesn't inhibit progress is: anything goes."
304
773869
3979
科学界唯一个法则就是：
任何方法都可以。”
任何方法都可以。”
13:09
Now this quotation has often
been taken out of context,
been taken out of context,
305
777848
2616
这句名言经常被断章取义，
13:12
because Feyerabend was not actually saying
306
780464
2118
因为费耶阿本德并不是说
13:14
that in science anything goes.
307
782582
1950
在科学上怎么都行。
13:16
What he was saying was,
308
784532
1344
他想说的
13:17
actually the full quotation is,
309
785876
2024
完整版的话应该是，
13:19
"If you press me to say
310
787900
2090
“如果你强制我说出
13:21
what is the method of science,
311
789990
1646
科学研究方法是什么，
13:23
I would have to say: anything goes."
312
791636
3629
我会说：任何方法都可以。"
13:27
What he was trying to say
313
795265
1078
他想要说的应该是
13:28
is that scientists do a lot of different things.
314
796343
2567
科学家做了许多不同的事情。
13:30
Scientists are creative.
315
798910
2308
科学家很有创造力。
13:33
But then this pushes the question back:
316
801218
2110
但这个问题又回来了，
13:35
If scientists don't use a single method,
317
803328
3471
如果科学家不用一种统一的方法，
13:38
then how do they decide
318
806799
1899
他们怎么决定
13:40
what's right and what's wrong?
319
808698
1458
什么是正确的或者错误的？
13:42
And who judges?
320
810156
1894
由谁来决定呢？
13:44
And the answer is, scientists judge,
321
812050
2080
答案是，由科学家决定，
13:46
and they judge by judging evidence.
322
814130
2883
他们依照证据决定。
13:49
Scientists collect evidence in many different ways,
323
817013
3409
科学家通过不同的方法收集证据，
13:52
but however they collect it,
324
820422
1622
但不论他们如何收集，
13:54
they have to subject it to scrutiny.
325
822044
2577
他们要审慎看待这些证据。
13:56
And this led the sociologist Robert Merton
326
824621
2560
这就导致了社会学家罗伯特 · 默顿
13:59
to focus on this question of how scientists
327
827181
2180
关注这样一个问题，即科学家该如何
14:01
scrutinize data and evidence,
328
829361
1679
审慎看待他们的证据和数据，
14:03
and he said they do it in a way he called
329
831040
2808
他将这种方法称之为
14:05
"organized skepticism."
330
833848
1919
“组织性怀疑”。
14:07
And by that he meant it's organized
331
835767
1884
“组织性”说明
14:09
because they do it collectively,
332
837651
1478
科学家合作收集数据，
14:11
they do it as a group,
333
839129
1629
他们作为团队一起工作，
14:12
and skepticism, because they do it from a position
334
840758
2816
“怀疑”说明他们对证据
14:15
of distrust.
335
843574
1454
持怀疑态度。
14:17
That is to say, the burden of proof
336
845028
1962
这就是说，关于证据的主要工作
14:18
is on the person with a novel claim.
337
846990
2481
落在了宣称自己
发现了新东西的人身上。
发现了新东西的人身上。
14:21
And in this sense, science
is intrinsically conservative.
is intrinsically conservative.
338
849471
3143
在这种情况下，科学的本质是保守。
14:24
It's quite hard to persuade the scientific community
339
852614
2572
想要说服科学界
14:27
to say, "Yes, we know something, this is true."
340
855186
3711
称“我们发现了些东西，这是真的”很难。
14:30
So despite the popularity of the concept
341
858897
2496
尽管方式转变的观念
14:33
of paradigm shifts,
342
861393
1597
被广泛地接受，
14:34
what we find is that actually,
343
862990
1284
我们却发现
14:36
really major changes in scientific thinking
344
864274
2785
科学思维上的重要改变
14:39
are relatively rare in the history of science.
345
867059
3720
在科学史上十分罕见。
14:42
So finally that brings us to one more idea:
346
870779
3563
最后我们提出了另一个想法：
14:46
If scientists judge evidence collectively,
347
874342
3708
如果科学家集体评判证据，
14:50
this has led historians to focus on the question
348
878050
2562
这就导致历史学家聚焦在了
14:52
of consensus,
349
880612
1419
“共识”这一问题上，
14:54
and to say that at the end of the day,
350
882031
1895
在最后，
14:55
what science is,
351
883926
1934
什么是科学，
14:57
what scientific knowledge is,
352
885860
1670
科学知识是什么，
14:59
is the consensus of the scientific experts
353
887530
3379
这是科学专家达成的共识，
15:02
who through this process of organized scrutiny,
354
890909
2154
他们通过这种组织性的怀疑，
15:05
collective scrutiny,
355
893063
2305
合作的怀疑，
15:07
have judged the evidence
356
895368
1242
来评判证据
15:08
and come to a conclusion about it,
357
896610
2797
得出结论，
15:11
either yea or nay.
358
899407
2477
判断正误，
15:13
So we can think of scientific knowledge
359
901884
1724
所以我们可以认为科学知识
15:15
as a consensus of experts.
360
903608
2052
就是专家的共识。
15:17
We can also think of science as being
361
905660
1772
我们也能认为科学是
15:19
a kind of a jury,
362
907432
1578
一种陪审团下的产物，
15:21
except it's a very special kind of jury.
363
909010
2514
当然这个陪审团非常特别。
15:23
It's not a jury of your peers,
364
911524
2104
他们不是你的同辈组成的，
15:25
it's a jury of geeks.
365
913628
1896
他们是怪才组成的陪审团。
15:27
It's a jury of men and women with Ph.D.s,
366
915524
3634
他们是由男博士女博士组成的，
15:31
and unlike a conventional jury,
367
919158
2442
不同于传统的陪审团
15:33
which has only two choices,
368
921600
1690
只有两种选择，
15:35
guilty or not guilty,
369
923290
2685
有罪或无罪，
15:37
the scientific jury actually has a number of choices.
370
925975
3401
科学陪审团有很多的选择。
15:41
Scientists can say yes, something's true.
371
929376
2784
科学家们能说，这是对的。
15:44
Scientists can say no, it's false.
372
932160
2580
他们能说，这是错的。
15:46
Or, they can say, well it might be true
373
934740
2540
他们也能说，这可能是对的，
15:49
but we need to work more
and collect more evidence.
and collect more evidence.
374
937280
3044
但我们需要更多的证据。
15:52
Or, they can say it might be true,
375
940324
1616
他们也能说，这可能是对的，
15:53
but we don't know how to answer the question
376
941940
1700
但我们不知道如何回答这个问题，
15:55
and we're going to put it aside
377
943640
1310
可以先放在一边，
15:56
and maybe we'll come back to it later.
378
944950
2923
之后再讨论。
15:59
That's what scientists call "intractable."
379
947873
4002
他们称这种情况“很棘手”。
16:03
But this leads us to one final problem:
380
951875
2606
但这把我们引向另一个问题：
16:06
If science is what scientists say it is,
381
954481
2938
如果科学是科学家定义的，
16:09
then isn't that just an appeal to authority?
382
957419
2541
那这是不是只诉诸权威呢？
16:11
And weren't we all taught in school
383
959960
1062
我们不是在学校学过，
16:13
that the appeal to authority is a logical fallacy?
384
961022
3227
诉诸权威是逻辑上的谬误吗？
16:16
Well, here's the paradox of modern science,
385
964249
3032
其实这是现代科学的悖论，
16:19
the paradox of the conclusion I think historians
386
967281
2272
我相信历史学家、
16:21
and philosophers and sociologists have come to,
387
969553
2601
哲学家和社会学家都会得出来的悖论，
16:24
that actually science is the appeal to authority,
388
972154
3501
事实上科学就是诉诸权威，
16:27
but it's not the authority of the individual,
389
975655
3776
但这不是对个人的权威，
16:31
no matter how smart that individual is,
390
979431
2399
不论这个人有多聪明，
16:33
like Plato or Socrates or Einstein.
391
981830
3865
像柏拉图，苏格拉底或爱因斯坦。
16:37
It's the authority of the collective community.
392
985695
3114
这是对精英群体的权威。
16:40
You can think of it is a kind of wisdom of the crowd,
393
988809
2986
你可以把它理解成一种集体智慧，
16:43
but a very special kind of crowd.
394
991795
4126
但这个集体非常特别。
16:47
Science does appeal to authority,
395
995921
1890
科学确实诉诸权威，
16:49
but it's not based on any individual,
396
997811
2050
但不是诉诸个人，
16:51
no matter how smart that individual may be.
397
999861
2586
不论这个人多聪明。
16:54
It's based on the collective wisdom,
398
1002447
1751
它建立于集体智慧之上，
16:56
the collective knowledge, the collective work,
399
1004198
2642
建立于集体知识，集体工作之上，
16:58
of all of the scientists who have worked
400
1006840
1898
建立于为这个问题努力过的
17:00
on a particular problem.
401
1008738
2717
所有科学家之上。
17:03
Scientists have a kind of culture of collective distrust,
402
1011455
2796
科学家有一种集体怀疑的文化，
17:06
this "show me" culture,
403
1014251
2200
这就是“给我看”文化，
17:08
illustrated by this nice woman here
404
1016451
1950
这个女士向我们展示了这一点，
17:10
showing her colleagues her evidence.
405
1018401
3082
她在向她的同事展示她的证据。
17:13
Of course, these people don't
really look like scientists,
really look like scientists,
406
1021483
1857
当然，这些人并不像科学家，
17:15
because they're much too happy.
407
1023340
1986
他们看起来太开心了。
17:17
(Laughter)
408
1025326
4012
（笑声）
17:21
Okay, so that brings me to my final point.
409
1029338
4322
最后，我想说：
17:25
Most of us get up in the morning.
410
1033660
2648
我们大多数人要早起奔波。
17:28
Most of us trust our cars.
411
1036308
1410
大多数人依赖我们的汽车。
17:29
Well, see, now I'm thinking, I'm in Manhattan,
412
1037718
1542
瞧，我现在在曼哈顿，
17:31
this is a bad analogy,
413
1039260
1298
这不是一个很好的类比，
17:32
but most Americans who don't live in Manhattan
414
1040558
2824
但大多数美国人没住在曼哈顿，
17:35
get up in the morning and get in their cars
415
1043382
1738
早上起来，钻进汽车，
17:37
and turn on that ignition, and their cars work,
416
1045120
2529
点火，汽车就运转了，
17:39
and they work incredibly well.
417
1047649
2001
运转得相当不错。
17:41
The modern automobile hardly ever breaks down.
418
1049650
2715
现代的汽车基本不怎么抛锚。
17:44
So why is that? Why do cars work so well?
419
1052365
2783
为什么呢？
为什么车能运行得这么好？
为什么车能运行得这么好？
17:47
It's not because of the genius of Henry Ford
420
1055148
2504
这不是因为亨利·福特的天才，
17:49
or Karl Benz or even Elon Musk.
421
1057652
3091
也不是卡尔·奔驰或伊隆·马斯克。
17:52
It's because the modern automobile
422
1060743
2142
这是因为现代的汽车
17:54
is the product of more than 100 years of work
423
1062885
5034
是100多年努力的结晶，
17:59
by hundreds and thousands
424
1067919
1590
是成百上千，
18:01
and tens of thousands of people.
425
1069509
1336
甚至上万人的努力。
18:02
The modern automobile is the product
426
1070845
2111
现代汽车是
18:04
of the collected work and wisdom and experience
427
1072956
2789
集体工作和智慧及经验的产物，
18:07
of every man and woman who has ever worked
428
1075745
2347
是所有为汽车工作过的
18:10
on a car,
429
1078092
1608
男人和女人的产物，
18:11
and the reliability of the technology is the result
430
1079700
2915
这项技术的可靠性就是
18:14
of that accumulated effort.
431
1082615
2683
这些付出加起来的结果。
18:17
We benefit not just from the genius of Benz
432
1085298
2857
我们不仅仅从奔驰，福特和马斯克的
18:20
and Ford and Musk
433
1088155
1066
天才中获益，
18:21
but from the collective intelligence and hard work
434
1089221
2768
而是从所有为现代汽车
18:23
of all of the people who have worked
435
1091989
2251
奋斗的人们的
18:26
on the modern car.
436
1094240
1670
集体智慧和工作中获益。
18:27
And the same is true of science,
437
1095910
2050
科学界也一样，
18:29
only science is even older.
438
1097960
2844
只是科学更加古老。
18:32
Our basis for trust in science is actually the same
439
1100804
2574
我们信任科学的基石，
18:35
as our basis in trust in technology,
440
1103378
2674
与我们信任技术的基石是一样的，
18:38
and the same as our basis for trust in anything,
441
1106052
3987
与我们信任其他事物的基石
都是一样的，
都是一样的，
18:42
namely, experience.
442
1110039
2278
也就是，经验。
18:44
But it shouldn't be blind trust
443
1112317
1844
但这不应该是盲目的信任，
18:46
any more than we would have blind trust in anything.
444
1114161
2760
不能盲目信任任何事情。
18:48
Our trust in science, like science itself,
445
1116921
2841
我们对科学的信任如同科学本身，
18:51
should be based on evidence,
446
1119762
1913
应该建立于证据，
18:53
and that means that scientists
447
1121675
1502
这意味着科学家
18:55
have to become better communicators.
448
1123177
2048
应该善于沟通。
18:57
They have to explain to us not just what they know
449
1125225
2887
他们不仅必须向我们
解释他们知道的东西，
解释他们知道的东西，
19:00
but how they know it,
450
1128112
1728
还要解释他们知道的过程，
19:01
and it means that we have
to become better listeners.
to become better listeners.
451
1129840
3890
这意味着我们需要变为更好的聆听者。
19:05
Thank you very much.
452
1133730
1419
十分感谢。
19:07
(Applause)
453
1135149
2303
（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Naomi Oreskes - Historian of scienceNaomi Oreskes is a historian of science who uses reason to fight climate change denial.
Why you should listen
Noami Oreskes is a professor of the History of Science and an affiliated professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Harvard University. She received her PhD at Stanford in 1990 in the Graduate Special Program in Geological Research and History of Science.
In her 2004 paper published in Science, "Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change,” Oreskes analyzed nearly 1,000 scientific journals to directly assess the magnitude of scientific consensus around anthropogenic climate change. The paper was famously cited by Al Gore in his film An Inconvenient Truth and led Oreskes to testify in front of the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works.
Oreskes is the co-author of the 2010 book Merchants of Doubt, which looks at how the tobacco industry attempted to cast doubt on the link between smoking and lung cancer, and the 2014 book The Collapse of Western Civilization: A View from the Future, which looks back at the present from the year 2093. Both are written with Erik M. Conway.
Naomi Oreskes | Speaker | TED.com