TEDSalon NY2014
Naomi Oreskes: Why we should trust scientists
奥米．奥利斯克斯: 為什麼我們要相信科學家？
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世界上很多重要的問題需要科學家解決，但是我們為何相信科學家的說話？研究科學史的歷史學家奥米．奥利斯克斯（Naomi Oreskes）對於我們和信仰的關係有深入的想法，並且提出三個有關對科學質詢的問題，然後說出她自己的答案：我們為什麼要相信科學。
Naomi Oreskes - Historian of science
Naomi Oreskes is a historian of science who uses reason to fight climate change denial. Full bio
Naomi Oreskes is a historian of science who uses reason to fight climate change denial. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
每天我們要面對各種各樣的問題，
00:12
Every day we face issues like climate change
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00:16
or the safety of vaccines
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例如氣候變遷、疫苗安全等，
00:17
where we have to answer questions whose answers
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我們必須回答這些問題，
00:20
rely heavily on scientific information.
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而答案很大程度上依賴於科學資訊，
00:23
Scientists tell us that the world is warming.
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科學家告訴我們世界正在暖化，
00:26
Scientists tell us that vaccines are safe.
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科學家告訴我們疫苗是安全，
00:29
But how do we know if they are right?
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但我們怎麼知道他們是對的？
00:31
Why should be believe the science?
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為什麼我們要相信科學？
00:33
The fact is, many of us actually
don't believe the science.
don't believe the science.
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事實上，很多人並不相信科學。
00:36
Public opinion polls consistently show
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民意調查一直顯示，
00:39
that significant proportions of the American people
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大部分美國民眾
00:42
don't believe the climate is
warming due to human activities,
warming due to human activities,
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並不相信氣候暖化是
人為活動造成的，
人為活動造成的，
00:45
don't think that there is
evolution by natural selection,
evolution by natural selection,
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也不認為有物競天擇這回事，
00:48
and aren't persuaded by the safety of vaccines.
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也不相信疫苗的安全。
00:52
So why should we believe the science?
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那麼，為何我們應該相信科學？
00:56
Well, scientists don't like talking about
science as a matter of belief.
science as a matter of belief.
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科學家不喜歡把科學
說成是需要「相信」的事。
說成是需要「相信」的事。
00:59
In fact, they would contrast science with faith,
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說實話，他們認為
「科學」和「信仰」是相斥的，
「科學」和「信仰」是相斥的，
01:02
and they would say belief is the domain of faith.
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他們說「教義」只屬於
「信仰」的一部份，
「信仰」的一部份，
01:05
And faith is a separate thing
apart and distinct from science.
apart and distinct from science.
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而「信仰」和「科學」
兩者本是風馬牛不相及。
兩者本是風馬牛不相及。
01:09
Indeed they would say religion is based on faith
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他們甚至說宗教以信仰為基礎，
01:12
or maybe the calculus of Pascal's wager.
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或者像帕斯卡的賭注：
01:15
Blaise Pascal was a 17th-century mathematician
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布萊茲．帕斯卡是
17 世紀的數學家，
17 世紀的數學家，
01:18
who tried to bring scientific
reasoning to the question of
reasoning to the question of
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他要把科學辯證帶入討論
01:21
whether or not he should believe in God,
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應否相信上帝的存在。
01:23
and his wager went like this:
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他打的賭是這樣：
01:25
Well, if God doesn't exist
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嗯，如果上帝不存在，
01:28
but I decide to believe in him
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但我決定相信上帝的存在，
01:30
nothing much is really lost.
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那我真的沒太大損失，
01:32
Maybe a few hours on Sunday.
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（可能損失了禮拜天的幾小時。）
01:34
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
01:35
But if he does exist and I don't believe in him,
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然而，如果上帝真的存在，
而我沒有相信上帝，
而我沒有相信上帝，
01:38
then I'm in deep trouble.
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那我就大遭殃啦。
01:40
And so Pascal said, we'd better believe in God.
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所以帕斯卡說，
我們最好還是相信上帝吧。
我們最好還是相信上帝吧。
01:43
Or as one of my college professors said,
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或者，如同我其中一個
的大學教授說：
的大學教授說：
01:45
"He clutched for the handrail of faith."
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「他抓著信念不放，
01:47
He made that leap of faith
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視為天降神跡，
01:49
leaving science and rationalism behind.
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把科學或理性思考遺忘掉。」
現在事實卻是，
01:54
Now the fact is though, for most of us,
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對很多人來說，很多科學主張
也沒有實驗基礎。
也沒有實驗基礎。
01:56
most scientific claims are a leap of faith.
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02:00
We can't really judge scientific
claims for ourselves in most cases.
claims for ourselves in most cases.
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我們也很難判斷某些科學主張，
02:04
And indeed this is actually
true for most scientists as well
true for most scientists as well
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甚至很多科學家也未能判斷
02:07
outside of their own specialties.
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超出其專長領域的主張。
02:09
So if you think about it, a geologist can't tell you
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所以你想一想，
地質學家就無法告訴你
地質學家就無法告訴你
02:12
whether a vaccine is safe.
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疫苗到底是否安全。
02:13
Most chemists are not experts in evolutionary theory.
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大多數化學家也不是
演化理論的專家。
演化理論的專家。
02:16
A physicist cannot tell you,
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一個物理學家也無法跟你說，
02:19
despite the claims of some of them,
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儘管某些人有自己的主見，
02:20
whether or not tobacco causes cancer.
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吸煙到底會否致癌。
02:24
So, if even scientists themselves
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所以，即使科學家
02:26
have to make a leap of faith
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在超出自己的專長領域外，
02:27
outside their own fields,
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都只相信天降神跡，
02:29
then why do they accept the
claims of other scientists?
claims of other scientists?
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那樣他們為什麼接受
其他科學家所提出的科學主張呢？
其他科學家所提出的科學主張呢？
02:33
Why do they believe each other's claims?
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那樣他們為什麼
接受其他人的主張呢？
接受其他人的主張呢？
02:35
And should we believe those claims?
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那樣我們應該相信他們的主張嗎？
02:39
So what I'd like to argue is yes, we should,
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所以我認為，是的，
我們應該相信，
我們應該相信，
02:41
but not for the reason that most of us think.
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但不是大部分人想的原因。
02:44
Most of us were taught in school
that the reason we should
that the reason we should
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大部分人在學校接受教育，
我們應該相信科學，
原因是其科學方法。
原因是其科學方法。
02:47
believe in science is because of the scientific method.
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02:50
We were taught that scientists follow a method
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老師說科學家遵循一套方法，
02:53
and that this method guarantees
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而這套方法
確保理論正確。
02:55
the truth of their claims.
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02:57
The method that most of us were taught in school,
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大部份人在學校裡
學習的那套方法，
學習的那套方法，
03:01
we can call it the textbook method,
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我們稱之為課本上的方法，
03:02
is the hypothetical deductive method.
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就是「假說演繹法」。
03:05
According to the standard
model, the textbook model,
model, the textbook model,
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根據標準的模式，
教科書教材的模式，
教科書教材的模式，
03:08
scientists develop hypotheses, they deduce
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科學家們提出假說，
推論那些假說的結果，
03:11
the consequences of those hypotheses,
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03:14
and then they go out into the world and they say,
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然後他們到現實世界去驗證，
03:15
"Okay, well are those consequences true?"
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「好，結果是否如我所料？」
03:18
Can we observe them taking
place in the natural world?
place in the natural world?
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我們可否在自然界中
觀察到這樣的結果嗎？
觀察到這樣的結果嗎？
03:21
And if they are true, then the scientists say,
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如果可以，科學家就會說，
03:24
"Great, we know the hypothesis is correct."
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「太棒了，我們知道假說是正確的。」
03:27
So there are many famous examples in the history
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科學史上有很多著名的例子，
03:29
of science of scientists doing exactly this.
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科學家就是這樣做的。
03:32
One of the most famous examples
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其中一個有名的例子
03:34
comes from the work of Albert Einstein.
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來自愛因斯坦的理論。
03:36
When Einstein developed the
theory of general relativity,
theory of general relativity,
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當愛因斯坦提出廣義相對論時，
03:38
one of the consequences of his theory
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他的其中一個論點是，
03:41
was that space-time wasn't just an empty void
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空間和時間不是空洞，沒有實體的，
03:44
but that it actually had a fabric.
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事實上其結構為纖維交織似的，
03:45
And that that fabric was bent
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而且在質量很大的物體面前，
例如太陽，
例如太陽，
03:47
in the presence of massive objects like the sun.
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時空就會被扭曲。
03:50
So if this theory were true then it meant that light
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那麼假設這個論點是正確的，
03:53
as it passed the sun
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意味着當光線穿越太陽時，
03:55
should actually be bent around it.
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就會圍繞著太陽而扭曲。
03:57
That was a pretty startling prediction
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那是一個很驚人的預測，
03:59
and it took a few years before scientists
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而科學家要到好多年後，
04:01
were able to test it
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才能夠去檢驗理論。
04:03
but they did test it in 1919,
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他們在1919年進行測試，
04:05
and lo and behold it turned out to be true.
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真怪呀，結果證明是真的：
04:07
Starlight actually does bend
as it travels around the sun.
as it travels around the sun.
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星光行經太陽時，
確實發生彎曲。
確實發生彎曲。
04:11
This was a huge confirmation of the theory.
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這對相對論是很重大的確證，
04:13
It was considered proof of the truth
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它被認為對這個全新想法
04:15
of this radical new idea,
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提供真實證明，
04:16
and it was written up in many newspapers
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全球各大報社也爭相報導。
04:18
around the globe.
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全球各大報社也爭相報導。
04:21
Now, sometimes this theory or this model
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現在，這個理論或模式
04:23
is referred to as the deductive-nomological model,
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有時候被稱作「演繹－律則」模式，
主要的原因是
學術界喜歡把事情搞得很複雜，
學術界喜歡把事情搞得很複雜，
04:26
mainly because academics like
to make things complicated.
to make things complicated.
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04:30
But also because in the ideal case, it's about laws.
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而且在理想情況下，
這跟「定律」有關。
這跟「定律」有關。
04:35
So nomological means having to do with laws.
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「律則」就必定跟「定律」有關。
04:38
And in the ideal case, the hypothesis isn't just an idea:
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在理想的情況下，
假說不僅是一種想法：
假說不僅是一種想法：
04:41
ideally, it is a law of nature.
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這是自然界的定律。
04:43
Why does it matter that it is a law of nature?
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自然界定律為什麼重要？
04:46
Because if it is a law, it can't be broken.
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因為定律不能被打破。
04:48
If it's a law then it will always be true
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如果它是定律，就永遠都是正確的，
04:50
in all times and all places
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無論何時何地，
04:52
no matter what the circumstances are.
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在任何情況下都是正確的。
04:54
And all of you know of at least
one example of a famous law:
one example of a famous law:
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你們所有人都知道
至少一個著名定律的例子：
至少一個著名定律的例子：
04:57
Einstein's famous equation, E=MC2,
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愛因斯坦的著名方程式：
E 等於 MC 平方。
E 等於 MC 平方。
05:01
which tells us what the relationship is
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告訴我們能量與質量的關係，
05:03
between energy and mass.
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告訴我們能量與質量的關係，
05:05
And that relationship is true no matter what.
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而那個關係無論如何都是正確的。
05:09
Now, it turns out, though, that there
are several problems with this model.
are several problems with this model.
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但是，我們後來發現
一些有關這個模式的問題，
一些有關這個模式的問題，
05:13
The main problem is that it's wrong.
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主要的問題是，它是錯的。
05:16
It's just not true. (Laughter)
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這並不是正確的。（笑聲）
05:20
And I'm going to talk about
three reasons why it's wrong.
three reasons why it's wrong.
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我要舉出三個原因，
說明它為何是錯。
說明它為何是錯。
05:22
So the first reason is a logical reason.
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第一個是邏輯上的原因，
05:25
It's the problem of the fallacy
of affirming the consequent.
of affirming the consequent.
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這是有關肯定後件謬誤的問題，
(affirming the consequent)
(affirming the consequent)
05:29
So that's another fancy, academic way of saying
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那是另一個異想天開的、
學術上的說法，
學術上的說法，
05:31
that false theories can make true predictions.
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就是錯誤的理論
也可得到正確的預測結果，
也可得到正確的預測結果，
05:34
So just because the prediction comes true
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所以即使預測正確，
05:36
doesn't actually logically
prove that the theory is correct.
prove that the theory is correct.
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邏輯上也未能證明
理論是正確的。
理論是正確的。
05:39
And I have a good example of that too,
again from the history of science.
again from the history of science.
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我可以再舉一個
科學史上很好的例子，
科學史上很好的例子，
05:43
This is a picture of the Ptolemaic universe
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這是一張托勒密宇宙的圖片，
05:46
with the Earth at the center of the universe
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地球處於宇宙的中心，
05:48
and the sun and the planets going around it.
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而太陽及其他行星圍繞著地球運轉。
05:50
The Ptolemaic model was believed
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很多聰明人都相信
托勒密宇宙模型，
托勒密宇宙模型，
05:52
by many very smart people for many centuries.
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已有幾個世紀了。
05:56
Well, why?
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嗯，為什麼呢？
05:57
Well the answer is because it made
lots of predictions that came true.
lots of predictions that came true.
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答案是，因為很多預測結果
的確符合現實狀況。
的確符合現實狀況。
06:01
The Ptolemaic system enabled astronomers
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天文學家根據托勒密系統，
06:03
to make accurate predictions
of the motions of the planet,
of the motions of the planet,
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精確預測行星運動，
06:06
in fact more accurate predictions at first
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事實上較哥白尼的理論
都要精準很多，
都要精準很多，
06:08
than the Copernican theory
which we now would say is true.
which we now would say is true.
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但是我們現在都知道
哥白尼的理論才正確。
哥白尼的理論才正確。
06:12
So that's one problem with the textbook model.
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這就是教科書教材模式的問題。
06:15
A second problem is a practical problem,
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第二個問題是實務問題，
06:18
and it's the problem of auxiliary hypotheses.
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跟輔助性假說有關。
06:21
Auxiliary hypotheses are assumptions
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輔助性假說是科學家提出假設，
06:24
that scientists are making
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有時候他們甚至不會發現
自己提出了假設，
自己提出了假設，
06:26
that they may or may not even
be aware that they're making.
be aware that they're making.
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06:29
So an important example of this
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一個重要的例子就來自
06:31
comes from the Copernican model,
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哥白尼的模型，
06:33
which ultimately replaced the Ptolemaic system.
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而最終它取代托勒密系統，
06:37
So when Nicolaus Copernicus said,
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當尼古拉．哥白尼說，
06:39
actually the Earth is not the center of the universe,
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地球實際上不是宇宙的中心，
06:41
the sun is the center of the solar system,
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太陽才是太陽系的中心，
06:43
the Earth moves around the sun.
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地球是繞著太陽運轉。
06:45
Scientists said, well okay, Nicolaus, if that's true
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科學家們說：好啊，尼古拉，
如果你說的是真的，
如果你說的是真的，
06:48
we ought to be able to detect the motion
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那我們應該感覺得到
地球在移動，
地球在移動，
06:50
of the Earth around the sun.
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繞著太陽跑。
06:52
And so this slide here illustrates a concept
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這張投影片展示出
06:54
known as stellar parallax.
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恆星視差的概念。
06:56
And astronomers said, if the Earth is moving
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天文學家說：如果地球正在移動，
07:00
and we look at a prominent star, let's say, Sirius --
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那麼我們觀察一顆明亮的星星時，
譬如說天狼星，
譬如說天狼星，
07:03
well I know I'm in Manhattan
so you guys can't see the stars,
so you guys can't see the stars,
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嗯，我知道在曼哈頓，
你們是看不到星星的，
你們是看不到星星的，
07:05
but imagine you're out in the country,
imagine you chose that rural life —
imagine you chose that rural life —
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但想像一下，你們到鄉村，
選擇過著農村生活，
選擇過著農村生活，
07:09
and we look at a star in December, we see that star
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我們在十二月的時候看星，
07:12
against the backdrop of distant stars.
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就看到遙遠恆星的背景
襯托着天狼星，
襯托着天狼星，
07:15
If we now make the same observation six months later
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如果我們六個月後
再做同樣的觀測，
再做同樣的觀測，
07:18
when the Earth has moved to this position in June,
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在6月時，當地球已轉到這個位置，
07:22
we look at that same star and we
see it against a different backdrop.
see it against a different backdrop.
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我們在不同的背景下，
看著同一顆星，
看著同一顆星，
07:26
That difference, that angular
difference, is the stellar parallax.
difference, is the stellar parallax.
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那種差異，那種角度的差異，
就是恆星視差（斗轉星移）。
就是恆星視差（斗轉星移）。
07:30
So this is a prediction that the Copernican model makes.
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所以這是根據哥白尼理論
所作的預測，
所作的預測，
07:33
Astronomers looked for the stellar parallax
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天文學家觀測尋找恆星視差，
07:35
and they found nothing, nothing at all.
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但就沒有觀測到，沒有發現。
07:40
And many people argued that this proved
that the Copernican model was false.
that the Copernican model was false.
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因此很多人認為
這證明哥白尼的模型是錯的。
這證明哥白尼的模型是錯的。
07:44
So what happened?
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所以這是怎麼回事？
07:46
Well, in hindsight we can say
that astronomers were making
that astronomers were making
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嗯，事後看來，我們可以說，
天文學家作出兩個輔助性假說，
07:48
two auxiliary hypotheses, both of which
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我們現在都知道兩者並不正確。
07:51
we would now say were incorrect.
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07:53
The first was an assumption
about the size of the Earth's orbit.
about the size of the Earth's orbit.
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第一個是有關「地球運行軌道」
大小的假設。
大小的假設。
07:57
Astronomers were assuming
that the Earth's orbit was large
that the Earth's orbit was large
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天文學家假設地球的軌道
08:00
relative to the distance to the stars.
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遠大於跟恆星的距離。
08:02
Today we would draw the picture more like this,
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今天我們畫出來的圖
比較像這樣：
比較像這樣：
08:05
this comes from NASA,
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這幅來自美國太空總署，
08:06
and you see the Earth's orbit is actually quite small.
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你們可以看到地球的軌道
事實上相當地小，
事實上相當地小，
08:09
In fact, it's actually much
smaller even than shown here.
smaller even than shown here.
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其實較這張圖畫還要小，
08:12
The stellar parallax therefore,
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因此，恆星視差非常小，
08:13
is very small and actually very hard to detect.
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很難偵測到的。
08:17
And that leads to the second reason
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這也帶到第二個原因，
08:19
why the prediction didn't work,
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為什麼沒有觀測到，
08:21
because scientists were also assuming
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因為科學家也誤以為
08:23
that the telescopes they had were sensitive enough
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當時的望遠鏡夠精密，
08:26
to detect the parallax.
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足以偵測到視差。
08:27
And that turned out not to be true.
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而最後發現這是錯的。
08:29
It wasn't until the 19th century
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直到19世紀，
08:32
that scientists were able to detect
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科學家才有辦法偵測到恆星視差。
08:34
the stellar parallax.
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科學家才有辦法偵測到恆星視差。
08:35
So, there's a third problem as well.
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所以，還有第三個問題。
08:38
The third problem is simply a factual problem,
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第三個問題簡而言之
就是事實問題。
就是事實問題。
08:41
that a lot of science doesn't fit the textbook model.
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有很多科學不符合教科書上的方法論，
08:43
A lot of science isn't deductive at all,
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很多科學根本不是
推理演繹出來的，
推理演繹出來的，
08:46
it's actually inductive.
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而是歸納出來的。
08:48
And by that we mean that scientists don't necessarily
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意思是說，科學家不一定要
08:50
start with theories and hypotheses,
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先建立理論假設，
08:52
often they just start with observations
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他們常常只是從觀察出發，
08:54
of stuff going on in the world.
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觀察世上萬物的運行。
08:57
And the most famous example
of that is one of the most
of that is one of the most
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最有名的例子查爾斯．達爾文，
也是世上最有名的科學家之一，
也是世上最有名的科學家之一，
08:59
famous scientists who ever lived, Charles Darwin.
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最有名的例子查爾斯．達爾文，
也是世上最有名的科學家之一，
也是世上最有名的科學家之一，
09:02
When Darwin went out as a young
man on the voyage of the Beagle,
man on the voyage of the Beagle,
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達爾文年輕的時候
參與小獵犬號的航行，
參與小獵犬號的航行，
09:05
he didn't have a hypothesis, he didn't have a theory.
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他沒有假設，沒有理論，
09:09
He just knew that he wanted
to have a career as a scientist
to have a career as a scientist
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只知道要成為一位科學家，
09:12
and he started to collect data.
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他開始蒐集資料。
09:14
Mainly he knew that he hated medicine
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主要是他知道他不喜歡醫學，
09:17
because the sight of blood made him sick so
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看到血會感到不舒服，
09:19
he had to have an alternative career path.
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因此不得不選擇另一條路。
09:21
So he started collecting data.
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所以他開始收集資料。
09:23
And he collected many things,
including his famous finches.
including his famous finches.
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他收集很多東西，
包括他最出名的雀鳥，
包括他最出名的雀鳥，
09:26
When he collected these finches,
he threw them in a bag
he threw them in a bag
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他把收集的雀鳥丟到包裡，
09:28
and he had no idea what they meant.
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他也不知道這有什麼意義。
09:31
Many years later back in London,
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多年以後他回到倫敦，
09:33
Darwin looked at his data again and began
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達爾文再把資料拿出來看，
09:35
to develop an explanation,
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然後開始建立學說，
09:38
and that explanation was the
theory of natural selection.
theory of natural selection.
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就是說明物競天擇的理論。
09:41
Besides inductive science,
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除了歸納法，
09:43
scientists also often participate in modeling.
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科學家們也常建立模型。
09:46
One of the things scientists want to do in life
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科學家一生中的志業之一，
09:48
is to explain the causes of things.
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就是解釋事物的緣由。
09:51
And how do we do that?
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我們要怎麼做呢？
09:52
Well, one way you can do it is to build a model
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嗯，一種方法是建立一個模型，
09:54
that tests an idea.
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然後做測試，
09:56
So this is a picture of Henry Cadell,
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這是一張亨利．卡道爾的照片，
09:58
who was a Scottish geologist in the 19th century.
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他是 19 世紀的蘇格蘭地理學家。
10:01
You can tell he's Scottish because he's wearing
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可以看出他是蘇格蘭人，
10:02
a deerstalker cap and Wellington boots.
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因為他頭戴獵鹿帽，腳穿威靈頓長靴。
10:05
(Laughter)
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〔觀眾笑〕
10:07
And Cadell wanted to answer the question,
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卡道爾想要找出答案，
10:08
how are mountains formed?
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山巒是如何形成的？
10:10
And one of the things he had observed
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其中他觀察到一件事，
10:12
is that if you look at mountains
like the Appalachians,
like the Appalachians,
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若看看像是
「阿帕拉契」這座山脈，
「阿帕拉契」這座山脈，
10:14
you often find that the rocks in them
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你們常常會看到裡面的岩石
10:16
are folded,
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有很多褶皺，
10:17
and they're folded in a particular way,
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而且是一種特定的摺法，
10:19
which suggested to him
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讓他覺得
它們像是從一邊被擠壓
而形成的褶皺。
而形成的褶皺。
10:20
that they were actually being
compressed from the side.
compressed from the side.
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10:23
And this idea would later play a major role
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這個想法在後來的陸塊漂移
學說中，扮演了重要角色。
學說中，扮演了重要角色。
10:25
in discussions of continental drift.
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這個想法在後來的陸塊漂移
學說中，扮演了重要角色。
學說中，扮演了重要角色。
10:28
So he built this model, this crazy contraption
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所以他建了個模型，
瘋狂的玩意兒，
瘋狂的玩意兒，
10:30
with levers and wood, and here's his wheelbarrow,
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用撬棒、木頭、
這是他的單輪手推車、
這是他的單輪手推車、
10:33
buckets, a big sledgehammer.
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一些桶子、一把大錘，
10:35
I don't know why he's got the Wellington boots.
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不知為何他還穿著威靈頓靴...
10:37
Maybe it's going to rain.
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也許那時快下雨了。
10:38
And he created this physical model in order
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3085
然後他就弄出了個實物模型，
10:42
to demonstrate that you could, in fact, create
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來演示你真的可以
模擬出岩石的紋理，
模擬出岩石的紋理，
10:46
patterns in rocks, or at least, in this case, in mud,
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在這邊至少用了泥巴去模擬，
近似於山脈的狀況，
近似於山脈的狀況，
10:48
that looked a lot like mountains
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在這邊至少用了泥巴去模擬，
近似於山脈的狀況，
近似於山脈的狀況，
10:50
if you compressed them from the side.
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1842
如果你從旁擠壓它的話。
10:52
So it was an argument about
the cause of mountains.
the cause of mountains.
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所以這就是山脈成因的論據。
10:56
Nowadays, most scientists prefer to work inside,
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這些年，大部分的科學家
比較喜歡在室內工作，
比較喜歡在室內工作，
10:59
so they don't build physical models so much
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所以他們比較少建實物模型，
11:01
as to make computer simulations.
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而是用電腦模擬。
11:04
But a computer simulation is a kind of a model.
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但電腦模擬也是一種模型，
11:07
It's a model that's made with mathematics,
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以數學運算建立模型，
11:08
and like the physical models of the 19th century,
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如同 19 世紀的實物模型，
11:12
it's very important for thinking about causes.
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這是找出原因的重要手段。
11:15
So one of the big questions
to do with climate change,
to do with climate change,
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因此，要回答關於「氣候變遷」
這樣的大哉問，
這樣的大哉問，
11:18
we have tremendous amounts of evidence
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1803
我們有海量的證據，
11:20
that the Earth is warming up.
258
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證明地球一直在暖化。
11:22
This slide here, the black line shows
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這張投影片中，黑色曲線表示
11:24
the measurements that scientists have taken
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科學家在過去150年以來的
量測數據。
量測數據。
11:26
for the last 150 years
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1963
科學家在過去150年以來的
量測數據。
量測數據。
11:28
showing that the Earth's temperature
262
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顯示地球的溫度，
11:30
has steadily increased,
263
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正穩定上升中。
11:31
and you can see in particular
that in the last 50 years
that in the last 50 years
264
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2846
你們也可以看到特別是
最近 50 年，
最近 50 年，
11:34
there's been this dramatic increase
265
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1764
則是大幅度的溫昇，
11:36
of nearly one degree centigrade,
266
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2340
幾乎是攝氏 1 度，
11:38
or almost two degrees Fahrenheit.
267
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2375
或換算約為華氏 2 度。
11:41
So what, though, is driving that change?
268
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2437
那所以，是什麼因素造成變遷？
11:43
How can we know what's causing
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我們要如何了解暖化的成因？
11:45
the observed warming?
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1516
我們要如何了解暖化的成因？
11:47
Well, scientists can model it
271
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1714
嗯，科學家可以建立模型，
11:49
using a computer simulation.
272
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利用電腦模擬運算。
11:51
So this diagram illustrates a computer simulation
273
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2792
這張圖顯示了電腦模擬結果，
11:54
that has looked at all the different factors
274
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加入了所有我們想得到的
11:56
that we know can influence the Earth's climate,
275
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可能會影響地球氣候的變因。
11:59
so sulfate particles from air pollution,
276
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有來自空氣污染的硫酸鹽微粒，
12:01
volcanic dust from volcanic eruptions,
277
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來自火山噴發的火山灰、
12:04
changes in solar radiation,
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太陽輻射變化、
12:07
and, of course, greenhouse gases.
279
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2378
當然，還有溫室效應氣體。
12:09
And they asked the question,
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1818
而他們要問的是，
12:11
what set of variables put into a model
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3696
要引用哪些變數，放入此模型，
12:14
will reproduce what we actually see in real life?
282
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可以模擬重現
我們看到的現實情形？
我們看到的現實情形？
12:17
So here is the real life in black.
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2020
所以這裡的黑線表示現實狀況，
12:19
Here's the model in this light gray,
284
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2280
而淺灰色的則表示模擬結果。
12:22
and the answer is
285
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答案是，
12:23
a model that includes, it's the answer E on that SAT,
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學測試題常有的
選項「E」：以上皆是。
選項「E」：以上皆是。
12:28
all of the above.
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學測試題常有的
選項「E」：以上皆是。
選項「E」：以上皆是。
12:30
The only way you can reproduce
288
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1506
要達到重現的唯一方法，
最接近實際量測溫度數據的，
最接近實際量測溫度數據的，
12:31
the observed temperature measurements
289
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1828
要達到重現的唯一方法，
最接近實際量測溫度數據的，
最接近實際量測溫度數據的，
12:33
is with all of these things put together,
290
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1978
就是把所有因素全都加入，
12:35
including greenhouse gases,
291
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包括溫室氣體排放，
12:37
and in particular you can see that the increase
292
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2551
而你們可以特別注意到，
溫室氣體增加的趨勢，
溫室氣體增加的趨勢，
而你們可以特別注意到，
溫室氣體增加的趨勢，
溫室氣體增加的趨勢，
12:40
in greenhouse gases tracks
293
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1884
和 50 年來溫度的急遽變化，
有非常大的關聯。
有非常大的關聯。
12:42
this very dramatic increase in temperature
294
750154
2206
和 50 年來溫度的急遽變化，
有非常大的關聯。
有非常大的關聯。
12:44
over the last 50 years.
295
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1480
12:45
And so this is why climate scientists say
296
753840
2434
這就是為什麼氣候學家會說，
12:48
it's not just that we know that
climate change is happening,
climate change is happening,
297
756274
3108
我們不只知道氣候正在改變，
12:51
we know that greenhouse gases are a major part
298
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2768
而且我們確知溫室氣體
是最主要的成因。
12:54
of the reason why.
299
762150
2730
12:56
So now because there all these different things
300
764880
2388
現在，因為科學家們
做各種不同的研究，
做各種不同的研究，
12:59
that scientists do,
301
767268
1489
現在，因為科學家們
做各種不同的研究，
做各種不同的研究，
13:00
the philosopher Paul Feyerabend famously said,
302
768757
3486
哲學家保羅．費耶阿本德
有句名言：
有句名言：
13:04
"The only principle in science
303
772243
1626
「科學持續進步的唯一原則，
13:05
that doesn't inhibit progress is: anything goes."
304
773869
3979
就是想方設法，
無所不用其極。」
無所不用其極。」
13:09
Now this quotation has often
been taken out of context,
been taken out of context,
305
777848
2616
這段話老是被斷章取義，
13:12
because Feyerabend was not actually saying
306
780464
2118
因為費耶阿本德其實不是在說，
13:14
that in science anything goes.
307
782582
1950
科學無所不用其極。
13:16
What he was saying was,
308
784532
1344
他要說的是，
13:17
actually the full quotation is,
309
785876
2024
其實他的原句是：
13:19
"If you press me to say
310
787900
2090
「如果非要問我
13:21
what is the method of science,
311
789990
1646
什麼是科學方法？
13:23
I would have to say: anything goes."
312
791636
3629
我只能說：想方設法，
無所不用其極。」
無所不用其極。」
13:27
What he was trying to say
313
795265
1078
他想說的是，
13:28
is that scientists do a lot of different things.
314
796343
2567
科學家會想方設法，
13:30
Scientists are creative.
315
798910
2308
科學家要很有創意。
13:33
But then this pushes the question back:
316
801218
2110
但這又回到原來的問題：
13:35
If scientists don't use a single method,
317
803328
3471
如果科學沒有單一的方法，
13:38
then how do they decide
318
806799
1899
那他們怎麼決定
13:40
what's right and what's wrong?
319
808698
1458
何者正確，何者錯誤？
13:42
And who judges?
320
810156
1894
由誰來裁決呢？
13:44
And the answer is, scientists judge,
321
812050
2080
答案是，由科學家判斷，
13:46
and they judge by judging evidence.
322
814130
2883
他們以「證據」評判。
13:49
Scientists collect evidence in many different ways,
323
817013
3409
科學家用各種手法收集證據，
13:52
but however they collect it,
324
820422
1622
但不管用什麼方法收集，
13:54
they have to subject it to scrutiny.
325
822044
2577
他們都要接受審查。
13:56
And this led the sociologist Robert Merton
326
824621
2560
這就帶到社會學家
羅伯特．莫頓所說的，
羅伯特．莫頓所說的，
13:59
to focus on this question of how scientists
327
827181
2180
問題應集中在科學家們是如何
審視資料及證據，
審視資料及證據，
14:01
scrutinize data and evidence,
328
829361
1679
問題應集中在科學家們是如何
審視資料及證據，
審視資料及證據，
14:03
and he said they do it in a way he called
329
831040
2808
他說，他們用的方式，
稱作「系統性懷疑」。
稱作「系統性懷疑」。
14:05
"organized skepticism."
330
833848
1919
他說，他們用的方式，
稱作「系統性懷疑」。
稱作「系統性懷疑」。
14:07
And by that he meant it's organized
331
835767
1884
他意思是說，有系統，
14:09
because they do it collectively,
332
837651
1478
因為他們採用系統組織方式，
他們有集體性；
他們有集體性；
14:11
they do it as a group,
333
839129
1629
因為他們採用系統組織方式，
他們有集體性；
他們有集體性；
14:12
and skepticism, because they do it from a position
334
840758
2816
而懷疑，是由於他們以
不輕信為出發點。
不輕信為出發點。
14:15
of distrust.
335
843574
1454
而懷疑，是由於他們以
不輕信為出發點。
不輕信為出發點。
14:17
That is to say, the burden of proof
336
845028
1962
也就是說，提出新主張的人
必須負責證明他的理論。
必須負責證明他的理論。
14:18
is on the person with a novel claim.
337
846990
2481
也就是說，提出新主張的人
必須負責證明他的理論。
必須負責證明他的理論。
14:21
And in this sense, science
is intrinsically conservative.
is intrinsically conservative.
338
849471
3143
此即意謂著，
科學的本質是保守的。
科學的本質是保守的。
14:24
It's quite hard to persuade the scientific community
339
852614
2572
要說服科學界是非常困難的，
14:27
to say, "Yes, we know something, this is true."
340
855186
3711
他們很難輕易說出：
「是，我們確信此事為真。」
「是，我們確信此事為真。」
14:30
So despite the popularity of the concept
341
858897
2496
姑且不論大家擁戴
「突破性思維」這個概念，
「突破性思維」這個概念，
14:33
of paradigm shifts,
342
861393
1597
姑且不論大家擁戴
「典範轉移」這個概念，
「典範轉移」這個概念，
14:34
what we find is that actually,
343
862990
1284
我們發現事實上，
14:36
really major changes in scientific thinking
344
864274
2785
在科學史上，科學的思考模式，
也很少有所改變。
也很少有所改變。
14:39
are relatively rare in the history of science.
345
867059
3720
在科學史上，科學的思考模式，
很少有所改變。
很少有所改變。
14:42
So finally that brings us to one more idea:
346
870779
3563
所以最後，
這又給我們帶來另一個想法，
這又給我們帶來另一個想法，
14:46
If scientists judge evidence collectively,
347
874342
3708
若科學家集體評判證據，
14:50
this has led historians to focus on the question
348
878050
2562
這導引歷史學家
集中至一件事：共識。
集中至一件事：共識。
14:52
of consensus,
349
880612
1419
這導引歷史學家
集中至一件事：共識。
集中至一件事：共識。
14:54
and to say that at the end of the day,
350
882031
1895
到頭來我們說：
14:55
what science is,
351
883926
1934
何謂科學？
14:57
what scientific knowledge is,
352
885860
1670
何謂科學知識？
14:59
is the consensus of the scientific experts
353
887530
3379
其實就是科學專家們的共識。
15:02
who through this process of organized scrutiny,
354
890909
2154
他們通過組織性的審查過程，
15:05
collective scrutiny,
355
893063
2305
集體審核，
15:07
have judged the evidence
356
895368
1242
對證據做出評判，
15:08
and come to a conclusion about it,
357
896610
2797
並得出結論，
不論贊成、反對皆然。
不論贊成、反對皆然。
15:11
either yea or nay.
358
899407
2477
並得出結論，
不論贊成、反對皆然。
不論贊成、反對皆然。
15:13
So we can think of scientific knowledge
359
901884
1724
所以我們可以將科學知識
視為一種專家共識。
視為一種專家共識。
15:15
as a consensus of experts.
360
903608
2052
所以我們可以將科學知識
視為一種專家共識。
視為一種專家共識。
15:17
We can also think of science as being
361
905660
1772
我們也可以把科學看作
15:19
a kind of a jury,
362
907432
1578
一種陪審制度，
15:21
except it's a very special kind of jury.
363
909010
2514
儘管這是種很特殊的陪審制度。
15:23
It's not a jury of your peers,
364
911524
2104
陪審員不是人人可當，
15:25
it's a jury of geeks.
365
913628
1896
而是由科學宅宅們擔任。
15:27
It's a jury of men and women with Ph.D.s,
366
915524
3634
陪審員有男有女，
全都是博士。
全都是博士。
15:31
and unlike a conventional jury,
367
919158
2442
和傳統的陪審團有所不同，
15:33
which has only two choices,
368
921600
1690
傳統只有兩種選擇，
15:35
guilty or not guilty,
369
923290
2685
有罪，或無罪，
15:37
the scientific jury actually has a number of choices.
370
925975
3401
科學界的陪審團
其實有多種選擇。
其實有多種選擇。
15:41
Scientists can say yes, something's true.
371
929376
2784
科學家可以說：
對，某件事是真的。
對，某件事是真的。
15:44
Scientists can say no, it's false.
372
932160
2580
科學家可以說：
不，這件事不正確。
不，這件事不正確。
15:46
Or, they can say, well it might be true
373
934740
2540
或他們也可說：
嗯，這可能是對的，
嗯，這可能是對的，
15:49
but we need to work more
and collect more evidence.
and collect more evidence.
374
937280
3044
可是我們需要再多花些功夫，
收集更多證據。
收集更多證據。
15:52
Or, they can say it might be true,
375
940324
1616
或者，他們會說：
這可能是對的，
這可能是對的，
15:53
but we don't know how to answer the question
376
941940
1700
但我們不知道如何找出
問題的答案，
問題的答案，
15:55
and we're going to put it aside
377
943640
1310
所以我們先把問題放一邊，
15:56
and maybe we'll come back to it later.
378
944950
2923
晚點再回頭來想。
15:59
That's what scientists call "intractable."
379
947873
4002
科學家們把這叫做「懸而未決」。
16:03
But this leads us to one final problem:
380
951875
2606
而這又把我們帶到最後的問題：
16:06
If science is what scientists say it is,
381
954481
2938
如果科學是由科學家們說了算，
16:09
then isn't that just an appeal to authority?
382
957419
2541
那這不會被權威者把持嗎？
16:11
And weren't we all taught in school
383
959960
1062
我們在學校不是被教說：
服從權威是一種邏輯謬誤嗎？
服從權威是一種邏輯謬誤嗎？
16:13
that the appeal to authority is a logical fallacy?
384
961022
3227
我們在學校不是被教說：
服從權威是一種邏輯謬誤嗎？
服從權威是一種邏輯謬誤嗎？
16:16
Well, here's the paradox of modern science,
385
964249
3032
嗯，這是現代科學的弔詭之處。
16:19
the paradox of the conclusion I think historians
386
967281
2272
這種弔詭我想就是歷史學家、
16:21
and philosophers and sociologists have come to,
387
969553
2601
哲學家，和社會學家們
得到的結論，
得到的結論，
16:24
that actually science is the appeal to authority,
388
972154
3501
其實科學是由權威者把持的，
16:27
but it's not the authority of the individual,
389
975655
3776
然而此權威非單一個人，
16:31
no matter how smart that individual is,
390
979431
2399
不論單一個人有多聰明，
16:33
like Plato or Socrates or Einstein.
391
981830
3865
像是柏拉圖、
或蘇格拉底，或愛因斯坦，
或蘇格拉底，或愛因斯坦，
16:37
It's the authority of the collective community.
392
985695
3114
這是整體學界的權威性，
16:40
You can think of it is a kind of wisdom of the crowd,
393
988809
2986
你可以把它想成群眾的智慧，
16:43
but a very special kind of crowd.
394
991795
4126
但是是很特殊的一群人，
16:47
Science does appeal to authority,
395
995921
1890
科學的確來自權威，
16:49
but it's not based on any individual,
396
997811
2050
但並非基於服從任何個人，
16:51
no matter how smart that individual may be.
397
999861
2586
不論他有多麼地聰明；
16:54
It's based on the collective wisdom,
398
1002447
1751
它是基於集體智慧，
16:56
the collective knowledge, the collective work,
399
1004198
2642
群體的智識，
群體的工作，
群體的工作，
16:58
of all of the scientists who have worked
400
1006840
1898
每位科學家一直鑽研的
17:00
on a particular problem.
401
1008738
2717
某個特定問題。
17:03
Scientists have a kind of culture of collective distrust,
402
1011455
2796
科學家有一種共通的
集體懷疑性，
集體懷疑性，
17:06
this "show me" culture,
403
1014251
2200
是「眼見為憑」的文化，
17:08
illustrated by this nice woman here
404
1016451
1950
由這位優秀女性為我們呈現，
17:10
showing her colleagues her evidence.
405
1018401
3082
把證據展示給她的同事看。
17:13
Of course, these people don't
really look like scientists,
really look like scientists,
406
1021483
1857
當然，這些人
看起來不太像科學家，
看起來不太像科學家，
17:15
because they're much too happy.
407
1023340
1986
因為他們好像太歡樂了...
17:17
(Laughter)
408
1025326
4012
〔觀眾笑〕
17:21
Okay, so that brings me to my final point.
409
1029338
4322
好，所以它帶到了我的終點：
17:25
Most of us get up in the morning.
410
1033660
2648
我們大部分人
早上起床，
早上起床，
17:28
Most of us trust our cars.
411
1036308
1410
我們大部分人
都相信我們的車子，
都相信我們的車子，
（現在想想，我們身處曼哈頓，
這個例子有點爛...）
這個例子有點爛...）
17:29
Well, see, now I'm thinking, I'm in Manhattan,
412
1037718
1542
17:31
this is a bad analogy,
413
1039260
1298
17:32
but most Americans who don't live in Manhattan
414
1040558
2824
但是大部分的美國人，
不住在曼哈頓的那些人，
不住在曼哈頓的那些人，
17:35
get up in the morning and get in their cars
415
1043382
1738
早上醒來，去開車，
17:37
and turn on that ignition, and their cars work,
416
1045120
2529
插上鑰匙發動，車子啟動了，
17:39
and they work incredibly well.
417
1047649
2001
一切非常順利。
17:41
The modern automobile hardly ever breaks down.
418
1049650
2715
現代的汽車很少壞掉，
17:44
So why is that? Why do cars work so well?
419
1052365
2783
為什麼呢？為什麼車子這麼乖？
17:47
It's not because of the genius of Henry Ford
420
1055148
2504
這不是因為亨利．福特是天才，
17:49
or Karl Benz or even Elon Musk.
421
1057652
3091
也不是因為卡爾．賓士
或甚至伊隆．馬斯克的天份。
或甚至伊隆．馬斯克的天份。
17:52
It's because the modern automobile
422
1060743
2142
這是因為現代的汽車，
是發展了超過100年的產品，
是發展了超過100年的產品，
17:54
is the product of more than 100 years of work
423
1062885
5034
這是因為現代的汽車，
是發展了超過100年的產品，
是發展了超過100年的產品，
這心血結晶，來自
數以百計、成千上萬的人們。
數以百計、成千上萬的人們。
17:59
by hundreds and thousands
424
1067919
1590
18:01
and tens of thousands of people.
425
1069509
1336
這心血結晶，來自
數以百計、成千上萬的人們。
數以百計、成千上萬的人們。
18:02
The modern automobile is the product
426
1070845
2111
這樣的現代產品，
18:04
of the collected work and wisdom and experience
427
1072956
2789
是集群眾智慧與經驗於一身，
18:07
of every man and woman who has ever worked
428
1075745
2347
每位男性和女性投注心思，
在研發汽車，
在研發汽車，
18:10
on a car,
429
1078092
1608
每位男性和女性投注心思，
在研發汽車，
在研發汽車，
18:11
and the reliability of the technology is the result
430
1079700
2915
其所達成的技術可靠度，
18:14
of that accumulated effort.
431
1082615
2683
即是來自於群體累積的成果。
18:17
We benefit not just from the genius of Benz
432
1085298
2857
我們不僅是受惠於
賓士、福特、馬斯克的天份。
賓士、福特、馬斯克的天份。
18:20
and Ford and Musk
433
1088155
1066
我們不僅是受惠於
賓士、福特、馬斯克的天份。
賓士、福特、馬斯克的天份。
18:21
but from the collective intelligence and hard work
434
1089221
2768
而是群體的智識、嘔心瀝血，
18:23
of all of the people who have worked
435
1091989
2251
每位在現今汽車業界工作過的人
都有所貢獻。
都有所貢獻。
18:26
on the modern car.
436
1094240
1670
每位在現今汽車業界工作過的人
都有所貢獻。
都有所貢獻。
18:27
And the same is true of science,
437
1095910
2050
科學也是如此，
只是發展的歷史還更長一些。
只是發展的歷史還更長一些。
18:29
only science is even older.
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科學也是如此，
只是發展的歷史還更長一些。
只是發展的歷史還更長一些。
18:32
Our basis for trust in science is actually the same
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1100804
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我們對於科學和技術的信任
基礎是一樣的，
基礎是一樣的，
18:35
as our basis in trust in technology,
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我們對於科學和技術的信任
基礎是一樣的，
基礎是一樣的，
18:38
and the same as our basis for trust in anything,
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對任何事物的信任
也基於相同一件事，
也基於相同一件事，
18:42
namely, experience.
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亦即：經驗。
18:44
But it shouldn't be blind trust
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然而這不應是盲目的信任，
科學之於任何事物皆然。
科學之於任何事物皆然。
18:46
any more than we would have blind trust in anything.
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然而這不應是盲目的信任，
科學之於任何事物皆然。
科學之於任何事物皆然。
18:48
Our trust in science, like science itself,
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我們對科學的信任，
就如同科學本身，
就如同科學本身，
18:51
should be based on evidence,
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應該要基於證據，
18:53
and that means that scientists
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這意味著科學家們
18:55
have to become better communicators.
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必須成為更好的溝通者。
18:57
They have to explain to us not just what they know
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不僅要向我們說明
他們已知的事情，
他們已知的事情，
19:00
but how they know it,
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也要說明是如何得知的，
19:01
and it means that we have
to become better listeners.
to become better listeners.
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而這也表示「我們」
必須要成為更好的聽眾。
必須要成為更好的聽眾。
19:05
Thank you very much.
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謝謝各位。
19:07
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Naomi Oreskes - Historian of scienceNaomi Oreskes is a historian of science who uses reason to fight climate change denial.
Why you should listen
Noami Oreskes is a professor of the History of Science and an affiliated professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Harvard University. She received her PhD at Stanford in 1990 in the Graduate Special Program in Geological Research and History of Science.
In her 2004 paper published in Science, "Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change,” Oreskes analyzed nearly 1,000 scientific journals to directly assess the magnitude of scientific consensus around anthropogenic climate change. The paper was famously cited by Al Gore in his film An Inconvenient Truth and led Oreskes to testify in front of the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works.
Oreskes is the co-author of the 2010 book Merchants of Doubt, which looks at how the tobacco industry attempted to cast doubt on the link between smoking and lung cancer, and the 2014 book The Collapse of Western Civilization: A View from the Future, which looks back at the present from the year 2093. Both are written with Erik M. Conway.
Naomi Oreskes | Speaker | TED.com