ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Collier - Economist
Paul Collier’s book The Bottom Billion shows what is happening to the poorest people in the world, and offers ideas for opening up opportunities to all.

Why you should listen

Paul Collier studies the political and economic problems of the very poorest countries: 50 societies, many in sub-Saharan Africa, that are stagnating or in decline, and taking a billion people down with them. His book The Bottom Billion identifies the four traps that keep such countries mired in poverty, and outlines ways to help them escape, with a mix of direct aid and external support for internal change.

From 1998 to 2003, Collier was the director of the World Bank's Development Research Group; he now directs the Centre for the Study of African Economies at Oxford, where he continues to advise policymakers.

More profile about the speaker
Paul Collier | Speaker | TED.com
TED2008

Paul Collier: The "bottom billion"

保罗·科利尔(Paul Collier):最底层的10亿人

Filmed:
1,479,650 views

现今世界上,还有10亿人正处于困苦之境中。我们应如何帮助他们?经济学家保罗·科利尔则提出一个大胆且富有同情心的计划以消融贫富差距。
- Economist
Paul Collier’s book The Bottom Billion shows what is happening to the poorest people in the world, and offers ideas for opening up opportunities to all. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:19
So, can we dare to be optimistic乐观?
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如今,我们仍敢为乐么?
00:22
Well, the thesis论文 of "The Bottom底部 Billion十亿"
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我于《最底层的10亿人》就已提出
00:23
is that a billion十亿 people have been stuck卡住 living活的
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现今仍有10亿人被囚于困境中,
00:28
in economies经济 that have been stagnant for 40 years年份,
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他们所处的世界的经济状况依然是四十年如一日,
00:33
and hence于是 diverging发散 from the rest休息 of mankind人类.
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因此他们正自我们的世界脱离。
00:37
And so, the real真实 question to pose提出 is not, "Can we be optimistic乐观?"
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所以,应被真正提出的问题是:我们能为乐吗?
00:40
It's, "How can we give credible可信的 hope希望 to that billion十亿 people?"
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应是:我们应如何向那群人给予可得的前景?
00:45
That, to my mind心神, is the fundamental基本的 challenge挑战 now of development发展.
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这对于我来说,正是阻碍当今发展的主要路障。
00:51
What I'm going to offer提供 you is a recipe食谱,
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我现在就要传授一张秘方给你们,
00:54
a combination组合 of the two forces军队 that changed the world世界 for good,
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这是两股积极力量的组合,
00:59
which哪一个 is the alliance联盟 of compassion同情 and enlightened开明 self-interest自我利益.
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它们就是怜悯心与开明的利己心的联盟。
01:06
Compassion同情, because a billion十亿 people are living活的 in societies社会
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怜悯心,是由于当今世界仍有10亿人处在
01:11
that have not offered提供 credible可信的 hope希望.
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未有前景的社会里。
01:16
That is a human人的 tragedy悲剧.
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此乃人类之悲歌。
01:19
Enlightened开明 self-interest自我利益, because if that economic经济 divergence差异
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开明的利己心,假若此种经济分歧
01:24
continues继续 for another另一个 40 years年份,
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依旧持续另一四十年
01:29
combined结合 with social社会 integration积分 globally全球,
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此问题将会与全球社会融合
01:33
it will build建立 a nightmare恶梦 for our children孩子.
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一起成为下一代的梦魇。
01:37
We need compassion同情 to get ourselves我们自己 started开始,
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我们需求怜悯以作动力;
01:41
and enlightened开明 self-interest自我利益 to get ourselves我们自己 serious严重.
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我们需求开明的利己心以作效力。
01:47
That's the alliance联盟 that changes变化 the world世界.
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这一联盟将会改变世界。
01:50
So, what does it mean to get serious严重 about providing提供 hope希望 for the bottom底部 billion十亿?
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所以,效力对于那10亿人到底是什么意思?
01:57
What can we actually其实 do?
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我们实际上可做什么?
02:01
Well, a good guide指南 is to think,
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这是一个好的开头,
02:04
"What did we do last time the rich丰富 world世界 got serious严重
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我们最后一次做了什么?那次富有的世界
02:09
about developing发展 another另一个 region地区 of the world世界?"
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是如何有效的变革了另外一部分世界?
02:13
That gives us, it turns out, quite相当 a good clue线索,
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这就是一个很好的线索,
02:17
except you have to go back quite相当 a long time.
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当然你要回到很久以前[才能找到此线索]。
02:20
The last time the rich丰富 world世界 got serious严重
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这发生于20世纪40年代,
02:22
about developing发展 another另一个 region地区 was in the late晚了 1940s.
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那次富有的世界始认真地发展变革另外一地区。
02:28
The rich丰富 world世界 was you, America美国,
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而那富有的世界是你们,美国,
02:33
and the region地区 that needed需要 to be developed发达 was my world世界, Europe欧洲.
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而需要发展的地区则是我们,欧洲。
02:38
That was post-War战后 Europe欧洲.
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那是二战后的欧洲。
02:41
Why did America美国 get serious严重?
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那么,美国为什么会认真起来?
02:44
It wasn't just compassion同情 for Europe欧洲, though虽然 there was that.
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这不仅仅是对欧洲的同情,虽然事实就是这样。
02:48
It was that you knew知道 you had to,
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因为你们知道你们不得不这样做,
02:51
because, in the late晚了 1940s, country国家 after country国家 in Central中央 Europe欧洲
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于40年代末期,成批的中欧国家正倒向
02:56
was falling落下 into the Soviet苏联 bloc集团, and so you knew知道 you'd no choice选择.
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苏维埃阵营,所以你们只能如此。
03:02
Europe欧洲 had to be dragged into economic经济 development发展.
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欧洲定需被拉进一场经济新发展。
03:05
So, what did you do, last time you got serious严重?
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所以你们上次是怎么做的?
03:09
Well, yes, you had a big aid援助 program程序. Thank you very much.
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对了,你们筹划起一场巨大的援助计划。非常感谢你们。
03:13
That was Marshall马歇尔 aid援助: we need to do it again. Aid援助 is part部分 of the solution.
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那就是马歇尔援助计划;我们需要再次实施。援助是解决途径之一。
03:18
But what else其他 did you do?
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除此之外,你们还做了什么?
03:21
Well, you tore撕毁 up your trade贸易 policy政策, and totally完全 reversed反向的 it.
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你们彻底抛弃了原有的贸易政策,而新的则是完全地逆反之。
03:28
Before the war战争, America美国 had been highly高度 protectionist保护主义.
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二战前,美国是高度的贸易保护主义。
03:32
After the war战争, you opened打开 your markets市场 to Europe欧洲,
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二战后,你们则将市场开放给欧洲,
03:36
you dragged Europe欧洲 into the then-global当时全球 economy经济, which哪一个 was your economy经济,
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你们将欧洲拉进当时的全球经济,是你们所主导的,
03:40
and you institutionalized制度化 that trade贸易 liberalization自由化
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并且你们将贸易自由制度化,
03:42
through通过 founding创建 the General一般 Agreement协议 on Tariffs关税 and Trade贸易.
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这是通过关贸总协定达成的。
03:46
So, total reversal翻转 of trade贸易 policy政策.
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这是完全扭转过来的贸易政策。
03:49
Did you do anything else其他?
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你们还有做其他东西吗?
03:50
Yes, you totally完全 reversed反向的 your security安全 policy政策.
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有。你们彻底扭转了你们的安全政策。
03:53
Before the war战争, your security安全 policy政策 had been isolationist孤立.
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二战前,你们的安全政策是孤立主义。
03:57
After the war战争, you tear眼泪 that up, you put 100,000 troops军队 in Europe欧洲
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二战后,你们将至抛诸脑后,你们向欧洲派驻了十万人马,
04:03
for over 40 years年份.
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而且是长达四十年。
04:05
So, total reversal翻转 of security安全 policy政策. Anything else其他?
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你们彻底扭转了安全政策。还有吗?
04:10
Yes, you tear眼泪 up the "Eleventh第十一 Commandment诫命" --
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有。你们了抛弃第十一戒—
04:14
national国民 sovereignty主权.
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国家主权。
04:17
Before the war战争, you treated治疗 national国民 sovereignty主权 as so sacrosanct神圣不可侵犯
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二战前,你们认为国家主权是如此的神圣而不可侵犯,
04:22
that you weren't even willing愿意 to join加入 the League联盟 of Nations国家.
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因此你们皆不愿加入国际联盟。
04:25
After the war战争, you found发现 the United联合的 Nations国家,
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二战后,你们则一手建起联合国、
04:28
you found发现 the Organization组织 for Economic经济 Cooperation合作 and Development发展,
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经合组织、国际货币基金组织,
04:32
you found发现 the IMF国际货币基金组织, you encouraged鼓励 Europe欧洲 to create创建 the European欧洲的 Community社区 --
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你们怂恿欧洲人建立欧洲共同体。
04:37
all systems系统 for mutual相互 government政府 support支持.
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所有的体系皆为相互扶持而服务。
04:41
That is still the waterfront滨水 of effective有效 policies政策:
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这些至今仍有用:
04:47
aid援助, trade贸易, security安全, governments政府.
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援助、贸易、安全和政府。
04:51
Of course课程, the details细节 of policy政策 are going to be different不同,
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当然,细节上将会有所变更,
04:54
because the challenge挑战 is different不同.
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因为这些都应有所因革。
04:56
It's not rebuilding重建 Europe欧洲, it's reversing倒车 the divergence差异
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而且这些不是为了重建欧洲,而应是逆转如今的分歧,
05:02
for the bottom底部 billion十亿, so that they actually其实 catch抓住 up.
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从而使最底层的10亿人可以迎头赶上。
05:05
Is that easier更轻松 or harder更难?
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这将会是更容易抑或更难?
05:09
We need to be at least最小 as serious严重 as we were then.
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我们至少需要有当时的责任心和态度。
05:14
Now, today今天 I'm going to take just one of those four.
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今天,我将会四选一。
05:19
I'm going to take the one that sounds声音 the weakest最弱,
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我将选取听起来效力最弱的,
05:22
the one that's just motherhood母亲 and apple苹果 pie馅饼 --
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那就是母亲和苹果派(注:美国俗语,指美国生活的典型元素)
05:25
governments政府, mutual相互 systems系统 of support支持 for governments政府 --
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亦就是政府,政府之间的相互扶持,
05:28
and I'm going to show显示 you one idea理念
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而我则会向你们展示一种新的想法,
05:32
in how we could do something to strengthen加强 governance治理,
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此想法将告诉你们如何去加强政府的管理方式,
05:37
and I'm going to show显示 you that that is enormously巨大 important重要 now.
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这对如今的世界是极其重要的。
05:44
The opportunity机会 we're going to look to
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如今正有一机会可以使我们敢乐,
05:49
is a genuine真正 basis基础 for optimism乐观 about the bottom底部 billion十亿,
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使那最底层的10亿人受益,
05:55
and that is the commodity商品 booms繁荣.
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而这就是商品的繁荣。
05:58
The commodity商品 booms繁荣 are pumping unprecedented史无前例 amounts of money
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商品的繁荣正将不可胜数的钱财注入至
06:04
into many许多, though虽然 not all, of the countries国家 of the bottom底部 billion十亿.
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很多,但不是全部,最底层的10亿人所处的国家。
06:10
Partly部分地, they're pumping money in because commodity商品 prices价格 are high,
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他们将金钱注入这些国家一部分是因为商品的价格很高,
06:14
but it's not just that. There's also a range范围 of new discoveries发现.
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但这并非全貌。在那些国家他们发现了一系列的资源。
06:21
Uganda乌干达 has just discovered发现 oil, in about the most disastrous惨重 location位置 on Earth地球;
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乌干达刚刚被发现储有石油,而那是地球上最灾难性的地方;
06:27
Ghana加纳 has discovered发现 oil;
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加纳也被发现储有石油;
06:29
Guinea几内亚 has got a huge巨大 new exploitation开发 of iron ore矿石 coming未来 out of the ground地面.
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几内亚则被发现储有丰富的铁矿资源。
06:34
So, a mass of new discoveries发现.
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所以,一系列的新发型。
06:37
Between之间 them, these new revenue收入 flows流动 dwarf矮人 aid援助.
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这些新的税收收入使援助金额相形见绌。
06:42
Just to give you one example:
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就给你们一个例子:
06:45
Angola安哥拉 alone单独 is getting得到 50 billion十亿 dollars美元 a year in oil revenue收入.
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安哥拉每年从开采石油中可获益五百亿美元。
06:50
The entire整个 aid援助 flows流动 to the 60 countries国家 of the bottom底部 billion十亿 last year were 34 billion十亿.
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去年向那群最底层的10亿人所处的60个国家提供的援助资金则仅为340亿美元。
06:56
So, the flow of resources资源 from the commodity商品 booms繁荣
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因此商品的繁荣将
07:01
to the bottom底部 billion十亿 are without precedent先例.
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给最底层的10亿人带来可触的未来。
07:06
So there's the optimism乐观.
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因此希望就存于此。
07:08
The question is, how is it going to help their development发展?
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不过问题是我们如何帮助他们发展?
07:12
It's a huge巨大 opportunity机会 for transformational转型 development发展.
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这是对发展进行转型的巨大机遇。
07:16
Will it be taken采取?
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这会被采纳么?
07:18
So, here comes a bit of science科学, and this is a bit of science科学 I've doneDONE
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为此,我对这个问题做了一点研究,
07:22
since以来 "The Bottom底部 Billion十亿," so it's new.
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这是在我出书之后才做的,所以这应该是新的。
07:25
I've looked看着 to see what is the relationship关系 between之间
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我前去观察了高昂的商品出口价格
07:29
higher更高 commodity商品 prices价格 of exports出口,
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与商品出口国数量增长
07:32
and the growth发展 of commodity-exporting大宗商品出口 countries国家.
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之间的关系。
07:34
And I've looked看着 globally全球, I've taken采取 all the countries国家 in the world世界
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我是用全球化视角进行观察的,我将全球所有国家都囊括进内,
07:37
for the last 40 years年份,
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且从40年前开始看起,
07:39
and looked看着 to see what the relationship关系 is.
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以来查看这两者之间的关系。
07:42
And the short run -- say, the first five to seven years年份 -- is just great.
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从短期来看--大概是第一个五到七年之间--它们的关系是很好的。
07:51
In fact事实, it's hunky虎背熊腰,脚蹬 dory多莉: everything goes up.
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应该说是极好的:所有东西都保持着上升的势头。
07:56
You get more money because your terms条款 of trade贸易 have improved改善,
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因为贸易势头的增加,你所赚得的利润也会增长,
07:58
but also that drives驱动器 up output产量 across横过 the board.
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但同时这也将所有人都陷入内。
08:01
So GDPGDP goes up a lot -- fantastic奇妙! That's the short run.
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因此国民生产总值也上扬了--很好!但这仅是短期。
08:07
And how about the long run?
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从长期来看如何?
08:09
Come back 15 years年份 later后来.
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让我们看15年后的景象。
08:12
Well, the short run, it's hunky虎背熊腰,脚蹬 dory多莉,
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从短期来看,是福;
08:14
but the long run, it's humpty矮胖 dumpty矮胖子.
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但从长期来看,那就是祸了。
08:19
You go up in the short run, but then most societies社会
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虽然你能暂于短期中加速,但大部分社会,
08:23
historically历史 have ended结束 up worse更差 than if they'd他们会 had no booms繁荣 at all.
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从历史角度看,都落得个极惨的结果,几乎都被打回原点。
08:28
That is not a forecast预测 about how commodity商品 prices价格 go;
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这并不是对商品价格增长的预测;
08:32
it's a forecast预测 of the consequences后果, the long-term长期 consequences后果,
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而是对结果的预测,对长期结果的预测,
08:36
for growth发展 of an increase增加 in prices价格.
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对总体趋势的预测。
08:41
So, what goes wrong错误? Why is there this "resource资源 curse诅咒," as it's called?
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因此是什么出错了?为什么会有“资源诅咒”(注:经济学术语)的存在?
08:46
And again, I've looked看着 at that, and it turns out
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所以我再次对此进行研究,结果表明
08:49
that the critical危急 issue问题 is the level水平 of governance治理,
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关键的问题在产生依赖资源发展时,
08:53
the initial初始 level水平 of economic经济 governance治理,
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该社会的执政水平,
08:55
when the resource资源 booms繁荣 accrue累积.
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对经济控制的能力。
08:58
In fact事实, if you've got good enough足够 governance治理,
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实际上,假如你们的政府拥有足够的执政水平,
09:00
there is no resource资源 boom繁荣.
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过度依赖资源是不会发生的。
09:02
You go up in the short term术语, and then you go up even more in the long term术语.
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这才是长远之道。
09:07
That's Norway挪威, the richest首富 country国家 in Europe欧洲. It's Australia澳大利亚. It's Canada加拿大.
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那就是挪威,欧洲最富有的国家。那是澳大利亚,是加拿大。
09:13
The resource资源 curse诅咒 is entirely完全 confined受限 to countries国家
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资源诅咒完全被这些国家的强有效的
09:15
below下面 a threshold of governance治理.
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管理方式扼杀。
09:17
They still go up in the short run.
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但对大部分正处于最底层的10亿人的国家来说,
09:19
That's what we're seeing眼看 across横过 the bottom底部 billion十亿 at the moment时刻.
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他们采取的都是速成之道。
09:23
The best最好 growth发展 rates利率 they've他们已经 had -- ever.
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他们现今的增长速率是有史以来最好的。
09:26
And the question is whether是否 the short run will persist坚持.
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只是问题在于他们能否保持这股劲头。
09:32
And with bad governance治理 historically历史, over the last 40 years年份, it hasn't有没有.
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从历史来看,他们的政府同40年前一样无能。
09:36
It's countries国家 like Nigeria尼日利亚, which哪一个 are worse更差 off than if they'd他们会 never had oil.
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譬如说尼日利亚,假若他们没开采石油,他们的境况应会更好。
09:44
So, there's a threshold level水平 above以上 which哪一个 you go up in the long term术语,
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因此对于那些国家能否进入长久发展
09:49
and below下面 which哪一个 you go down.
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抑或是短期速跑是有一个门槛的存在。
09:51
Just to benchmark基准 that threshold,
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这个门槛打个比方说
09:53
it's about the governance治理 level水平 of Portugal葡萄牙 in the mid 1980s.
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就应是葡萄牙于80年代中期的执政水平。
10:00
So, the question is, are the bottom底部 billion十亿 above以上 or below下面 that threshold?
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所以问题变成了,这些国家的执政水平到底是跨过这道门槛还是没有跨过?
10:05
Now, there's one big change更改 since以来 the commodity商品 booms繁荣 of the 1970s,
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自从70年代商品经济繁荣以来,
10:10
and that is the spread传播 of democracy民主.
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民主的观念正不断的传播。
10:13
So I thought, well, maybe that is the thing
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因此我认为这正是使那些国家的政府
10:15
which哪一个 has transformed改造 governance治理 in the bottom底部 billion十亿.
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发生转变的关键要素。
10:17
Maybe we can be more optimistic乐观 because of the spread传播 of democracy民主.
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也许因为民主的传播,我们可以对此抱乐观的态度。
10:21
So, I looked看着. Democracy民主 does have significant重大 effects效果 --
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民主的观念的确带来了明显的作用--
10:26
and unfortunately不幸, they're adverse不利的.
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但非正面的作用。
10:29
Democracies民主 make even more of a mess食堂 of these resource资源 booms繁荣 than autocracies独裁.
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民主所带来的麻烦比独裁还麻烦。
10:35
At that stage阶段 I just wanted to abandon放弃 the research研究, but --
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在这个阶段,我正想放弃研究,但--
10:38
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
10:40
-- it turns out that democracy民主 is a little bit more complicated复杂 than that.
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--结果显明民主所带来的效用不仅限于此。
10:43
Because there are two distinct不同 aspects方面 of democracy民主:
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因为哪里有两种不同的民主。
10:47
there's electoral competition竞争, which哪一个 determines确定 how you acquire获得 power功率,
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选举竞争,决定着你如何上位;
10:52
and there are checks检查 and balances结余, which哪一个 determine确定 how you use power功率.
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制衡,则决定着你如何使用权力。
10:58
It turns out that electoral competition竞争 is the thing
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原来带来负面效果的民主
11:00
that's doing the damage损伤 with democracy民主,
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是选举竞争,
11:02
whereas strong强大 checks检查 and balances结余 make resource资源 booms繁荣 good.
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而强力的制衡则可引出商品繁荣好的一面。
11:07
And so, what the countries国家 of the bottom底部 billion十亿 need
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因此那些国家所需的就是
11:10
is very strong强大 checks检查 and balances结余.
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有力的制衡制度。
11:12
They haven't没有 got them.
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但它们仍未取得这些东西。
11:14
They got instant瞬间 democracy民主 in the 1990s:
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他们于90年代就直接获得了民主:
11:17
elections选举 without checks检查 and balances结余.
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没有任何制衡制度存在的选举。
11:20
How can we help improve提高 governance治理 and introduce介绍 checks检查 and balances结余?
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我们应如何帮助他们增强政府的权威并且引进制衡制度呢?
11:26
In all the societies社会 of the bottom底部 billion十亿,
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对所有最底层的10亿人所处的国家里,
11:28
there are intense激烈 struggles斗争 to do just that.
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他们都要通过惨烈的斗争才能摘取果实。
11:33
The simple简单 proposal提案 is that we should have some international国际 standards标准,
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我们应该建立一些国际标准,
11:38
which哪一个 will be voluntary自主性, but which哪一个 would spell拼写 out the key decision决定 points
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应该是可控的,但同时也应阐明
11:43
that need to be taken采取 in order订购
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掌控这些资源财富的
11:46
to harness马具 these resource资源 revenues收入.
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关键步骤是什么。
11:49
We know these international国际 standards标准 work
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我们知道这些国际标准是有效的,
11:51
because we've我们已经 already已经 got one.
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我们已经建立了一个。
11:53
It's called the Extractive抽出物 Industries工业 Transparency透明度 Initiative倡议.
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那就是《采掘业透明度倡议》。
11:56
That is the very simple简单 idea理念 that governments政府 should report报告
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这个倡议的内容很简单,就是需要政府
12:01
to their citizens公民 what revenues收入 they have.
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向他们的民众进行财政收入汇报。
12:04
No sooner was it proposed建议
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但这个倡议被提出时
12:06
than reformers改革者 in Nigeria尼日利亚 adopted采用 it, pushed it and published发表 the revenues收入 in the paper.
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尼日利亚的改革者就接受了此项倡议,并紧接着于报纸上公布了他们的税收情况。
12:13
Nigerian尼日利亚 newspapers报纸 circulations循环 spiked.
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这些报纸马上销售一空。
12:15
People wanted to know what their government政府 was getting得到
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人民渴望得知他们政府的
12:18
in terms条款 of revenue收入.
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税收情况。
12:21
So, we know it works作品. What would the content内容 be of these international国际 standards标准?
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因此我们知道这是有效的。但这些国际规则的具体条文应是什么呢?
12:28
I can't go through通过 all of them, but I'll give you an example.
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我没时间进行细述,就举个例子吧。
12:33
The first is how to take the resources资源 out of the ground地面 --
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第一个则是怎么样将资源取出来--
12:37
the economic经济 processes流程, taking服用 the resources资源 out of the ground地面
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这是一个经济进程,将资源取出来
12:40
and putting assets资产 on top最佳 of the ground地面.
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然后转变成为财产。
12:43
And the first step in that is selling销售 the rights权利 to resource资源 extraction萃取.
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因此第一步就应是出售资源开采权。
12:47
You know how rights权利 to resource资源 extraction萃取 are being存在 sold出售 at the moment时刻,
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你们都知道资源开采权是现正被出售的,
12:51
how they've他们已经 been sold出售 over the last 40 years年份?
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但从过去40年来看,它们是怎么样被出售的呢?
12:53
A company公司 flies苍蝇 in, does a deal合同 with a minister部长.
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一间公司插入,与部长进行交易,
12:57
And that's great for the company公司,
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这对这间公司和这位部长
12:59
and it's quite相当 often经常 great for the minister部长 --
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来说,是双赢--
13:01
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
13:02
-- and it's not great for their country国家.
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--但通常是对这个国家的打击。
13:05
There's a very simple简单 institutional制度 technology技术
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这里有一项非常简单的科技体制,
13:07
which哪一个 can transform转变 that,
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它就叫作拍卖验证,
13:09
and it's called verified验证 auctions拍卖.
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这可以改变这种情形。
13:14
The public上市 agency机构 with the greatest最大 expertise专门知识 on Earth地球
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与地球上所存的所有公共机构中,专业知识量最大的
13:20
is of course课程 the treasury金库 -- that is, the British英国的 Treasury金库.
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当然是财政部--英国财政部则是其中翘楚。
13:23
And the British英国的 Treasury金库 decided决定 that it would sell the rights权利
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英国财政部决定将某些权力贩卖给
13:26
to third-generation第三代 mobile移动 phones手机
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第三代移动电话时,
13:28
by working加工 out what those rights权利 were worth价值.
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他们需要计算这些权力价值几何。
13:31
They worked工作 out they were worth价值 two billion十亿 pounds英镑.
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他们算出这些权力共值二十亿英镑。
13:34
Just in time, a set of economists经济学家 got there and said,
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同一时间,一群经济学家则提议
13:37
"Why not try an auction拍卖? It'll它会 reveal揭示 the value."
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说:“为什么不举办一场拍卖会?这将会显示[这些东西的]价值。”
13:40
It went for 20 billion十亿 pounds英镑 through通过 auction拍卖.
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拍卖会的成果则是两百亿英镑。
13:44
If the British英国的 Treasury金库 can be out by a factor因子 of 10,
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假若英国财政部的亏损额可达到10的倍数,
13:47
think what the ministry of finance金融 in Sierra内华达 Leone塞拉利昂 is going to be like.
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那么想想塞拉利昂的财政部会做出什么事来。
13:50
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
13:51
When I put that to the President主席 of Sierra内华达 Leone塞拉利昂,
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当我将此项提议提交给塞拉利昂的总统时,
13:53
the next下一个 day he asked the World世界 Bank银行 to send发送 him a team球队
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第二天这位总统就像世界银行提出申请,
13:56
to give expertise专门知识 on how to conduct进行 auctions拍卖.
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申请派出一队专家以帮助他们举行拍卖会。
14:01
There are five such这样 decision决定 points;
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一共有五个关键的步骤;
14:03
each one needs需求 an international国际 standard标准.
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每个步骤都应用相应的国际标准以兹辅助。
14:07
If we could do it, we would change更改 the world世界.
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假若我们可以做到,我们就是改变世界。
14:11
We would be helping帮助 the reformers改革者 in these societies社会,
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我们可以帮助那些变革者,
14:15
who are struggling奋斗的 for change更改.
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帮助他们的社会进行变革。
14:18
That's our modest谦虚 role角色. We cannot不能 change更改 these societies社会,
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这就是我们的职责。我们无法改变那些社会,
14:22
but we can help the people in these societies社会
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但我们可以帮助其国人改变社会,
14:25
who are struggling奋斗的 and usually平时 failing失败,
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因为他们通常都在挣扎中,且经常失败,
14:28
because the odds可能性 are so stacked堆叠 against反对 them.
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这是由于成堆的不利条件击倒了他们。
14:34
And yet然而, we've我们已经 not got these rules规则.
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如今,我们还未建立那些规则。
14:37
If you think about it, the cost成本 of promulgating颁布 international国际 rules规则
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假若你们思考下,颁布这些国际规则成本
14:41
is zilch小人物 -- nothing.
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就是零--不需任何成本。
14:44
Why on Earth地球 are they not there?
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但它们为何就是没有呢?
14:48
I realized实现 that the reason原因 they're not there
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我意识到问题的根源所在就是
14:52
is that until直到 we have a critical危急 mass of informed通知 citizens公民 in our own拥有 societies社会,
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政客们总是故作姿态、不做实事,
14:58
politicians政治家 will get away with gestures手势.
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除非我们的国家都拥有一群知情的公民。
15:01
That unless除非 we have an informed通知 society社会,
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除非我们有一个开明的社会,
15:06
what politicians政治家 do, especially特别 in relation关系 to Africa非洲, is gestures手势:
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政客们对于非洲问题都只是做做姿态:
15:12
things that look good, but don't work.
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信言不美,美言不信啊。
15:15
And so I realized实现 we had to go through通过 the business商业
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我又意识到我们还需要
15:18
of building建造 an informed通知 citizenry公民.
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建立起一个开明的社会。
15:22
That's why I broke打破 all the professional专业的 rules规则 of conduct进行 for an economist经济学家,
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这就是我破除所有为经济学家制定的规则
15:27
and I wrote an economics经济学 book that you could read on a beach海滩.
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以来写一部可以在沙滩上阅读的经济学著作。
15:30
(Laughter笑声).
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(笑声)
15:35
However然而, I have to say, the process处理 of communication通讯
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不过,我不得不说,进行沟通
15:39
does not come naturally自然 to me.
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并不是如此容易的。
15:41
This is why I'm on this stage阶段, but it's alarming惊人.
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这就我站在这个舞台上的原因,但却是发人深省的。
15:45
I grew成长 up in a culture文化 of self-effacement自谦.
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我是生长一种自谦的文化氛围中。
15:53
My wife妻子 showed显示 me a blog博客 comment评论 on one of my last talks会谈,
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我的妻子向我展示了一个对我演讲进行批评的博客评论,
15:57
and the blog博客 comment评论 said, "Collier煤船 is not charismatic魅力 --
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这个博客评论则说:“科利尔并不迷人--
16:03
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
16:06
-- but his arguments参数 are compelling引人注目."
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--但他的说理则令人信服。”
16:09
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
16:13
(Applause掌声)
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(鼓掌)
16:20
If you agree同意 with that sentiment情绪,
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假使你们同意这一观点,
16:23
and if you agree同意 that we need a critical危急 mass of informed通知 citizenry公民,
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而且你们同意我们需要一个开明的社会和一群知情的民众,
16:29
you will realize实现 that I need you.
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你们则会意识到我需要你们。
16:33
Please, become成为 ambassadors大使.
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请成为[我的]代表吧。
16:35
Thank you.
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谢谢。
16:37
(Applause掌声)
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(鼓掌)
Translated by Chaoran Yu
Reviewed by Zachary Lin Zhao

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Collier - Economist
Paul Collier’s book The Bottom Billion shows what is happening to the poorest people in the world, and offers ideas for opening up opportunities to all.

Why you should listen

Paul Collier studies the political and economic problems of the very poorest countries: 50 societies, many in sub-Saharan Africa, that are stagnating or in decline, and taking a billion people down with them. His book The Bottom Billion identifies the four traps that keep such countries mired in poverty, and outlines ways to help them escape, with a mix of direct aid and external support for internal change.

From 1998 to 2003, Collier was the director of the World Bank's Development Research Group; he now directs the Centre for the Study of African Economies at Oxford, where he continues to advise policymakers.

More profile about the speaker
Paul Collier | Speaker | TED.com