ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Thomas Barnett - Military strategist
Strategic planner Thomas Barnett has advised US leaders on national security since the end of the Cold War. His bold ideas about the future of warfare and the military are spelled out in his best-selling book The Pentagon's New Map.

Why you should listen

Thomas P.M. Barnett's bracing confidence and radical recommendations make him a powerful force shaping the future of the US military.

In his book The Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in the Twenty-First Century, Barnett draws on a fascinating combination of economic, political and cultural factors to predict and explain the nature of modern warfare. He presents concrete, world-changing strategies for transforming the US military -- adrift in the aftermath of the Cold War and 9/11 -- into a two-tiered power capable not only of winning battles, but of promoting and preserving international peace.

Thomas has been a senior adviser to military and civilian leaders in a range of offices, including the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, Central Command and Special Operations Command. During the tumultuous period from November 2001 to June 2003, he advised the Pentagon on transforming military capabilities to meet future threats. He led the five-year NewRuleSet.Project, which studied how globalization is transforming warfare. The study found, among other things, that when a country's per-capita income rises above ~$3,000, war becomes much less likely.

Barnett is unusually outspoken in a field cloaked in secrecy. His follow-up book is Blueprint for Action: A Future Worth Creating, and he writes regular columns for Esquire and the Knoxville News Sentinel. He also maintains a prolific blog, where he covers current global events.

More profile about the speaker
Thomas Barnett | Speaker | TED.com
TED2005

Thomas Barnett: Let's rethink America's military strategy

Thomas Barnett的世界和平新方案

Filmed:
1,329,270 views

在这次令人振奋且朴实的演讲中,国际安全战略家Thomas Barnett将概述自己为正在走下坡路的美军寻找到的冷战后的世界和平方案。他朴实的理论既符合实际又激动人心,简单地讲就是将世界“一分为二”。
- Military strategist
Strategic planner Thomas Barnett has advised US leaders on national security since the end of the Cold War. His bold ideas about the future of warfare and the military are spelled out in his best-selling book The Pentagon's New Map. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:26
I get asked a lot what the difference区别 between之间 my work is
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很多人问我,我的工作
00:28
and typical典型 Pentagon五角大楼 long-range长距离 strategic战略 planners规划者.
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与一位典型的五角大楼长期战略计划者的工作有什么区别
00:32
And the answer回答 I like to offer提供 is
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我给他们的答案是
00:33
what they typically一般 do is they think about the future未来 of wars战争
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那些计划者们总是在战争的大背景下
00:36
in the context上下文 of war战争.
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思考战争的未来
00:38
And what I've spent花费 15 years年份 doing in this business商业 --
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而我花费了15年时间所做的事情
00:41
and it's taken采取 me almost几乎 14 to figure数字 it out --
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——其实我花了14年才搞清楚我到底在做什么——
00:43
is I think about the future未来 of wars战争 in the context上下文 of everything else其他.
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是我却是在非战争的大背景下思考战争的未来
00:48
So I tend趋向 to specialize专攻 on the scene现场 between之间 war战争 and peace和平.
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所以我倾向于关注那些介于战争和和平之间的事情
00:52
The material材料 I'm going to show显示 you is one idea理念 from a book
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我要向大家介绍的是一本书中的一个观点
00:55
with a lot of ideas思路.
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呃~不是一个,而是好几个观点
00:56
It's the one that takes me around the world世界 right now
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正是为此我才周游世界
00:58
interacting互动 with foreign国外 militaries军队 quite相当 a bit.
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与各国军方交流
01:01
The material材料 was generated产生 in two years年份 of work I did
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这些观点都是基于我这两年来
01:03
for the Secretary秘书 of Defense防御,
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为美国国防部所做的工作
01:04
thinking思维 about a new national国民 grand盛大 strategy战略
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——为美国
01:07
for the United联合的 States状态.
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寻找一个新的国家整体战略
01:09
I'm going to present当下 a problem问题
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我想给大家提出一个问题
01:10
and try to give you an answer回答.
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看看您怎么回答
01:13
Here's这里的 my favorite喜爱 bonehead concept概念 from the 1990s in the Pentagon五角大楼:
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以下是自上世纪90年代以来我最喜欢的“五角大楼的愚蠢概念”
01:17
the theory理论 of anti-access反介入, area-denial区域封锁 asymmetrical不对称 strategies策略.
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——反介入、区域封锁的非对称战略理论
01:21
Why do we call it that?
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为什么我们给它起了这么一个名字呢?
01:22
Because it's got all those A's lined up I guess猜测.
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我猜这是因为它所有的单词开头都是A
01:30
This is gobbledygook官样文章 for
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带官腔的文章都这样
01:32
if the United联合的 States状态 fights打架 somebody we're going to be huge巨大.
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如果美国要打谁,那么我们美国必是巨大的
01:35
They're going to be small.
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则对方必是渺小的
01:36
And if they try to fight斗争 us in the traditional传统, straight-up直线上升 manner方式
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如果对方要以传统的直接的方式开战的话
01:38
we're going to kick their ass屁股,
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我们必能将其揍扁
01:39
which哪一个 is why people don't try to do that any more.
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正因为如此,他们才不会以那样传统的方式向美国开战
01:42
I met会见 the last Air空气 Force General一般 who had actually其实
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我遇到过一个当过空军将军的家伙
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shot射击 down an enemy敌人 plane平面 in combat战斗.
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他曾经在战斗中击落过敌人的飞机
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He's now a one star General一般.
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而他现在是一个一星上将
01:49
That's how distant遥远 we are from even meeting会议 an air空气 force
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而自上次我们发现一个愿意与美国空军部队进行空战的敌人
01:53
willing愿意 to fly against反对 ours我们的.
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竟然已经是那么久远的事情
01:55
So that overmatched打败 capability能力 creates创建 problems问题 --
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因此,这种压倒对手的能力引起了许多问题
01:58
catastrophic灾难性的 successes成功 the White白色 House calls电话 them.
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——而白宫称之为“灾难性的成功”
02:01
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
02:04
And we're trying to figure数字 that out,
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我们正努力搞懂它
02:06
because it is an amazing惊人 capability能力.
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因为这是一种令人惊奇的能力
02:08
The question is, what's the good you can do with it?
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问题是,你能用它做什么呢?
02:11
OK?
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对么?
02:13
The theory理论 of anti-access反介入, area-denial区域封锁 asymmetrical不对称 strategies策略 --
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反介入、区域封锁的非对称战略理论——
02:17
gobbledygook官样文章 that we sell to Congress国会,
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我们卖给国会的官样文章
02:19
because if we just told them we can kick anybody's任何人的 asses
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因为如果我们直接告诉议员们我们能揍扁敌人
02:22
they wouldn't不会 buy购买 us all the stuff东东 we want.
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议员们是不会给我们买我们所需要的东西的
02:24
So we say, area-denial区域封锁, anti-access反介入 asymmetrical不对称 strategies策略
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所以我们将其称之为反介入、区域封锁的非对称战略理论
02:28
and their eyes眼睛 glaze over.
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他们一听,立刻就呆掉了
02:30
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
02:33
And they say, "Will you build建立 it in my district?"
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然后他们会问:“你会不会在我所在的区部署一个“?
02:36
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
02:38
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
02:42
Here's这里的 my parody滑稽模仿 and it ain't much of one.
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下面我将举一个例子
02:43
Let's talk about a battle战斗 space空间.
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让我们聊一个“战斗区域”
02:44
I don't know, Taiwan台湾 Straits海峡 2025.
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我也不懂,台湾海峡2025
02:46
Let's talk about an enemy敌人 embedded嵌入式 within that battle战斗 space空间.
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让我们先谈一个在此战斗区域中的敌人
02:49
I don't know, the Million百万 Man Swim游泳.
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呃~~比如一百万个在海峡中游泳的人
02:51
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
02:54
The United联合的 States状态 has to access访问 that battle战斗 space空间 instantaneously瞬间.
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美国必须立刻进入该区域
02:57
They throw up anti-access反介入, area-denial区域封锁 asymmetrical不对称 strategies策略.
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于是使用了反介入、区域封锁的非对称战略理论
03:01
A banana香蕉 peel on the tarmac停机坪.
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而停机坪上出现了一个香蕉皮~
03:03
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
03:04
Trojan木马 horses马匹 on our computer电脑 networks网络
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我们电脑网络中的特洛伊木马
03:06
reveal揭示 all our Achilles'阿基里斯 heels脚跟 instantly即刻.
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立刻告诉敌人我们的致命弱点在何处
03:09
We say, "China中国, it's yours你的."
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我们说,这木马是中国的
03:11
Prometheus普罗米修斯 approach途径, largely大部分 a geographic地理 definition定义,
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主要从地理定义上来说,是普罗米修斯的方法
03:14
focuses重点 almost几乎 exclusively on the start开始 of conflict冲突.
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几乎完全集中在冲突的初期
03:16
We field领域 the first-half上半场 team球队 in a league联盟
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我们在联赛的上半段领先
03:18
that insists坚持 on keeping保持 score得分了 until直到 the end结束 of the game游戏.
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保持这个分数,直到比赛结束
03:21
That's the problem问题.
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这就是问题所在
03:23
We can run the score得分了 up against反对 anybody任何人,
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我们能迅速得分超过任何人
03:25
and then get our asses kicked in the second第二 half --
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然后再后半段的比赛中比人家揍扁
03:27
what they call fourth第四 generation warfare.
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他们称之为第四代战争
03:30
Here's这里的 the way I like to describe描述 it instead代替.
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下面我要描述一下第四代战争
03:32
There is no battle战斗 space空间 the U.S. Military军事 cannot不能 access访问.
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目前,没有美军不能进入的战斗区域
03:35
They said we couldn't不能 do Afghanistan阿富汗. We did it with ease缓解.
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有人说我们不能进入阿富汗,而我们却轻易地做到了
03:37
They said we couldn't不能 do Iraq伊拉克.
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有人说我们不能进入伊拉克
03:39
We did it with 150 combat战斗 casualties伤亡 in six weeks.
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我们也做到了,而且代价是六周内只有150个战斗伤员
03:43
We did it so fast快速 we weren't prepared准备 for their collapse坍方.
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我们进入的速度如此之快,以至于我们都还没有对伊拉克的垮台做好准备
03:47
There is nobody没有人 we can't take down.
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世上没有我们打不垮的敌人
03:50
The question is, what do you do with the power功率?
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而问题是,我们怎么使用这样的能力
03:52
So there's no trouble麻烦 accessing访问 battle战斗 spaces空间.
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因此,在进入战斗区域方面,我们是不存在问题的
03:54
What we have trouble麻烦 accessing访问 is the transition过渡 space空间
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事实上,我们无法顺利进入的
03:57
that must必须 naturally自然 follow跟随,
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是随之而来的“过渡区域”
03:59
and creating创建 the peace和平 space空间 that allows允许 us to move移动 on.
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并创造允许我们继续前进的“和平区域”
04:03
Problem问题 is, the Defense防御 Department over here
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问题是,管理此处的国防部门
04:05
beats节拍 the hell地狱 out of you.
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他妈的把人家赶出去了
04:08
The State Department over here says,
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然后管理此处的国务院人员却对人家说
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"Come on boy男孩, I know you can make it."
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”来吧伙计,我知道你能行“
04:12
And that poor较差的 country国家 runs运行 off that ledge窗台,
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然后那个可怜的国家就逃掉了
04:14
does that cartoon动画片 thing and then drops滴剂.
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做一些卡通一样的蠢事然后垮掉了
04:16
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
04:22
This is not about overwhelming压倒 force, but proportional成比例的 force.
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我们的确拥有压倒性的武力,不应盲目地全部使用
04:24
It's about non-lethal非致命 technologies技术,
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有些事情是于致命性武器无关的
04:26
because if you fire real真实 ammo弹药 into a crowd人群
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因为如果你对一群参与暴乱的妇女和儿童
04:29
of women妇女 and children孩子 rioting骚乱
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开火的话
04:32
you're going to lose失去 friends朋友 very quickly很快.
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你会很快失去你的朋友
04:34
This is not about projecting突出 power功率, but about staying power功率,
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这与启用武力无关,问题在于如何克制使用武力
04:36
which哪一个 is about legitimacy合法 with the locals当地人.
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关系到合法性的问题
04:39
Who do you access访问 in this transition过渡 space空间?
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你应该派谁进入这种过渡区域呢?
04:41
You have to create创建 internal内部 partners伙伴. You have to access访问 coalition联盟 partners伙伴.
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你必须创造内部的合作伙伴,必须拥有同盟
04:44
We asked the Indians印度人 for 17,000 peace和平 keepers饲养员.
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我们请17000个印度人来当和平卫士
04:47
I know their senior前辈 leadership领导, they wanted to give it to us.
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我认识他们的高层领导人,他们愿意派人给我们
04:50
But they said to us, "You know what?
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但是他们说,你知道么?
04:52
In that transition过渡 space空间 you're mostly大多 hat帽子 not enough足够 cattle黄牛.
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在那个过渡区域你的人手还不够
04:56
We don't think you can pull it off,
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我们觉得你还是完不成
04:57
we're not going to give you our 17,000 peace和平 keepers饲养员 for fodder饲料."
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所以我们不会给我们的17000人去浪费
04:59
We asked the Russians俄罗斯 for 40,000.
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我们问俄国要40000人
05:02
They said no.
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他们不给
05:03
I was in China中国 in August八月, I said,
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我说过,八月份的时候我在中国
05:04
"You should have 50,000 peace和平 keepers饲养员 in Iraq伊拉克.
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“你们应该派50000人去伊拉克维和
05:07
It's your oil, not ours我们的."
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因为那是你的石油,不是我的石油”
05:10
Which哪一个 is the truth真相. It's their oil.
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事实上,那确实是他们的石油
05:12
And the Chinese中文 said to me, "Dr博士. Barnett巴尼特, you're absolutely绝对 right.
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然后那个中国人告诉我,“Barnett先生,你完全正确
05:15
In a perfect完善 world世界 we'd星期三 have 50,000 there.
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如果世界是完美的,我们愿意派50000人过去
05:18
But it's not a perfect完善 world世界,
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但是现在,世界是不完美的
05:20
and your administration行政 isn't getting得到 us any closer接近."
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而你们美国人在那里的管理也没有让我们更接近完美世界”
05:24
But we have trouble麻烦 accessing访问 our outcomes结果.
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我们在获取成果上也存在问题
05:27
We lucked时来运转 out, frankly坦率地说, on the selection选择.
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坦白讲,我们在选举上的胜利是都是凭借运气
05:29
We face面对 different不同 opponents对手 across横过 these three.
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我们面对着这三方的敌人
05:32
And it's time to start开始 admitting承认
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是时候开始承认
05:33
you can't ask the same相同 19-year-old-岁 to do it all, day in and day out.
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你不能要求同样是19岁的人来做所有的事情,过一天算一天
05:37
It's just too damn该死的 hard.
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这他妈的太难了
05:39
We have an unparalleled空前的 capacity容量 to wage工资 war战争.
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我们拥有一种不平衡的发动战争的能力
05:43
We don't do the everything else其他 so well.
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但我们对非战争的事情却处理不好
05:46
Frankly坦率地说, we do it better than anybody任何人 and we still suck吮吸 at it.
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坦白说,我们已经比其他任何人做的都要好了,但我们仍然举步维艰
05:48
We have a brilliant辉煌 Secretary秘书 of War战争.
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我们有一个出色的“战争部长”
05:50
We don't have a Secretary秘书 of Everything Else其他.
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我们却没有一个“非战争事务部长”
05:53
Because if we did, that guy would be in front面前 of the Senate参议院,
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因为如果我们有,那个家伙就会成为出色的议员
05:55
still testifying作证 over Abu阿布 Ghraib格莱布.
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继续审查伊拉克美军虐囚事件
05:58
The problem问题 is he doesn't exist存在.
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问题是这个人并不存在
06:01
There is no Secretary秘书 of Everything Else其他.
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没有所谓的“非战争事务部长”
06:04
I think we have an unparalleled空前的 capacity容量 to wage工资 war战争.
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我认为我们拥有一种不平衡的发动战争的能力
06:07
I call that the Leviathan利维坦 Force.
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我称之为“巨轮之力”
06:09
What we need to build建立 is a force for the Everything Else其他.
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而我们需要打造一种能力,是处理非战争事务的能力
06:11
I call them the System系统 Administrators管理员.
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我称之为”系统监管“
06:13
What I think this really represents代表
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我认为,这说明了我们缺乏一套详细的规则
06:15
is lack缺乏 of an A to Z rule规则 set for the world世界 as a whole整个
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来处理政治破产的国家
06:17
for processing处理 politically政治上 bankrupt破产者 states状态.
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使这个世界成为一个整体
06:19
We have one for processing处理 economically经济 bankrupt破产者 states状态.
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我们有处理经济破产的国家的规则
06:22
It's the IMF国际货币基金组织 Sovereign君主 Bankruptcy破产 Plan计划, OK?
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就是”国际货币基金组织主权破产计划“,对么?
06:26
We argue争论 about it every一切 time we use it.
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每次使用它时,我们总在争论
06:28
Argentina阿根廷 just went through通过 it, broke打破 a lot of rules规则.
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阿根廷正在实行,打破了许多规则
06:30
They got out on the far end结束, we said, "Fine, don't worry担心 about it."
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他们快完了,我们说,无所谓啦,不要担心它
06:33
It's transparent透明. A certain某些 amount of certainty肯定
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它是透明的、总量确定的
06:36
gives the sense of a non-zero非零 outcome结果.
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给我们的感觉,总归多多少少是有产出的
06:38
We don't have one for processing处理 politically政治上 bankrupt破产者 states状态
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而当政治破产的时候呢?
06:40
that, frankly坦率地说, everybody每个人 wants gone走了.
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坦白讲,每个人都想逃离
06:43
Like Saddam萨达姆, like Mugabe穆加贝, like Kim Jong-Il金正日 --
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例如萨达姆,例如穆加贝,例如金正日——
06:47
people who kill in hundreds数以百计 of thousands数千 or millions百万.
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那些杀害成百上千人的家伙
06:51
Like the 250,000 dead so far in Sudan苏丹.
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例如目前在苏丹已经有250000人受害
06:55
What would an A to Z system系统 look like?
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这个监管系统该是什么样的呢?
06:57
I'm going to distinguish区分 between之间 what I call
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下面我将区分一下我刚刚所讲的
06:59
front面前 half and back half.
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上半场和下半场
07:02
And let's call this red line线, I don't know, mission任务 accomplished完成.
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我称之为红线,或者说,”完成了的任务“
07:06
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
07:09
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
07:13
What we have extant现存 right now,
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目前在这个监管系统中,我们已经拥有的
07:15
at the beginning开始 of this system系统, is the U.N. Security安全 Council评议会 as a grand盛大 jury陪审团.
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是联合国安理会,它可以作为一个大陪审团
07:17
What can they do?
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他们能做什么呢?
07:18
They can indict起诉 your ass屁股.
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他们能起诉你
07:22
They can debate辩论 it. They can write it on a piece of paper.
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他们会讨论你问题,然后写下来
07:24
They can put it in an envelope信封 and mail邮件 it to you,
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装到信封里寄给你
07:26
and then say in no uncertain不确定 terms条款, "Please cut that out."
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然后说义正言辞地说,请不要这样做
07:31
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
07:36
That gets得到 you about four million百万 dead in Central中央 Africa非洲 over the 1990s.
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因为它的存在,让上世纪90年代的非洲中部死亡了大约4000000人
07:39
That gets得到 you 250,000 dead in the Sudan苏丹 in the last 15 months个月.
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因为它的存在,过去的15个月中苏丹死亡了250000人
07:44
Everybody's每个人都 got to answer回答 their grandchildren孙子 some day
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有一天每个人都要告诉他们的子孙
07:45
what you did about the holocaust大屠杀 in Africa非洲,
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你在非洲大屠杀中担任了什么角色
07:48
and you better have an answer回答.
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到时你最好能答得出来
07:53
We don't have anything to translate翻译 that will into action行动.
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我们无法将那种意愿转化为行动
07:57
What we do have is the U.S.-enabled- 启用 Leviathan利维坦 Force that says,
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我们所有的就是美国具有的”巨轮之力“,他说
08:00
"You want me to take that guy down? I'll take that guy down.
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”你要我打倒谁,我就会打到谁
08:03
I'll do it on Tuesday星期二. It will cost成本 you 20 billion十亿 dollars美元."
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我周二就能打到他,那会花费你200亿美元“
08:06
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
08:11
But here's这里的 the deal合同.
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但是立刻就能成交了
08:13
As soon不久 as I can't find anybody任何人 else其他 to air空气 out,
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只要我们找不到任何其他人来
08:15
I leave离开 the scene现场 immediately立即.
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我就立即离开
08:17
That's called the Powell鲍威尔 Doctrine教义.
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这叫做”鲍威尔主义“
08:21
Way downstream下游 we have the International国际 Criminal刑事 Court法庭.
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然后我们有国际刑事法庭
08:23
They love to put them on trial审讯. They've他们已经 got Milosevic米洛舍维奇 right now.
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他们喜欢审判罪犯,他们现在已经有了米洛舍维奇了
08:25
What are we missing失踪?
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我们还缺什么?
08:27
A functioning功能 executive行政人员 that will translate翻译 will into action行动,
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一个能发挥作用、将意愿转化为行动的行政力量
08:30
because we don't have it.
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因为我们还没有
08:32
Every一切 time we lead one of these efforts努力
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每次我们作为领导力量去做点什么
08:34
we have to whip鞭子 ourselves我们自己 into this imminent即将来临 threat威胁 thing.
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我们都会为自己制造一种迫在眉睫的巨大威胁
08:38
We haven't没有 faced面对 an imminent即将来临 threat威胁 since以来
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自从1962年的古巴导弹危机以来
08:40
the Cuban古巴 missile导弹 crisis危机 in 1962.
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其实我们再也没有面临过这种威胁了
08:42
But we use this language语言 from a bygone过去的 era时代
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但我们总在使用一种过了时的语言
08:43
to scare ourselves我们自己 into doing something
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自我恐吓地去做一些事情
08:46
because we're a democracy民主 and that's what it takes.
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因为我们是一个民主的国家,就该当如此
08:48
And if that doesn't work we scream惊叫, "He's got a gun!"
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如果不能成功,我们就会尖叫,“对方有枪!”
08:50
just as we rush in.
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一边说着,我们一边急着往对方那里赶
08:52
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
09:00
And then we look over the body身体
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然后,我们搜查人家
09:01
and we find an old cigarette香烟 lighter打火机 and we say,
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我们发现了一个老式的打火机,我们就说
09:03
"Jesus耶稣, it was dark黑暗."
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“天哪,果真不是什么好人”
09:05
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
09:07
Do you want to do it, France法国?
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你想让法国也来这样做么?
09:09
France法国 says, "No, but I do like to criticize批评 you after the fact事实."
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法国说,“不,我不去,但是你做完了我会批评你”
09:14
What we need downstream下游 is a great power功率 enabled启用 --
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我们接下来需要的,就是启动一种巨大的力量
09:17
what I call that SysSYS Admin管理员 Force.
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我们称之为“系统监督部队”
09:19
We should have had 250,000 troops军队 streaming into Iraq伊拉克
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我们应该派250000部队去伊拉克
09:21
on the heels脚跟 of that Leviathan利维坦 sweeping笼统的 towards Baghdad巴格达.
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为前往巴格达的部队保驾护航
09:24
What do you get then?
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去了能起什么作用呢?
09:25
No looting抢劫, no military军事 disappearing消失,
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没有掠夺,不再有军人失踪
09:27
no arms武器 disappearing消失, no ammo弹药 disappearing消失,
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没有人再偷我们的武器军火
09:29
no Muqtada萨德尔 al-Sadr萨德尔 -- I'm wrecking失事 his bones骨头 --
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也再没有萨德尔出现——我正在啃他的骨头——
09:31
no insurgency暴动.
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也没有叛乱了
09:33
Talk to anybody任何人 who was over there in the first six months个月.
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在前半年的时间里,与在伊拉克的人交流
09:35
We had six months个月 to feel the lob高球, to get the job工作 doneDONE,
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我们就有六个月的时间去感受“高球”,去完成任务
09:38
and we dicked干过 around for six months个月.
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我们花六个月的时间去熟悉它
09:40
And then they turned转身 on us.
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然后他们就会站在我们这边了
09:42
Why? Because they just got fed美联储 up.
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为什么?因为他们只是被激怒了
09:44
They saw what we did to Saddam萨达姆.
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他们看到了我们队萨达姆做了什么
09:46
They said, "You're that powerful强大, you can resurrect复活 this country国家.
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他们说,“你们真棒,你们能能让这个国家复活
09:48
You're America美国."
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你们是美国”
09:50
What we need is an international国际 reconstruction重建 fund基金 --
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我们需要的是一个国际重建基金
09:52
Sebastian塞巴斯蒂安 Mallaby马拉比, Washington华盛顿 Post岗位, great idea理念.
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塞巴斯蒂安马拉比,华盛顿邮报,都挺不错的
09:54
Model模型 on the IMF国际货币基金组织.
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这都是如同国际货币基金组织一样的好例子
09:56
Instead代替 of passing通过 the hat帽子 each time, OK?
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我们不再需要每次从人们那里筹集善款了
09:59
Where are we going to find this guy? G20, that's easy简单.
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那我们从哪里找到钱呢?G20嘛,多简单啊
10:02
Check检查 out their agenda议程 since以来 9/11.
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看一下911事件后他们的日程表
10:04
All security安全 dominated占主导地位.
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全都在关心安全问题
10:06
They're going to decide决定 up front面前 how the money gets得到 spent花费
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他们会提前决定要花多少钱
10:08
just like in the IMF国际货币基金组织.
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就像国际货币基金组织一样
10:09
You vote投票 according根据 to how much money you put in the kitty猫咪.
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你再根据你下注的钱数来进行投票
10:13
Here's这里的 my challenge挑战 to the Defense防御 Department.
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这是我对国防部门的建议
10:14
You've got to build建立 this force. You've got to seed种子 this force.
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你要建立这支部队,你要供养这支部队
10:17
You've got to track跟踪 coalition联盟 partners伙伴. Create创建 a record记录 of success成功.
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你要跟踪联合部队,创造一个新的成功记录
10:20
You will get this model模型.
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你会成功的
10:22
You tell me it's too hard to do.
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你告诉我这很难
10:24
I'll walk步行 this dog right through通过 that six part部分 series系列 on the Balkans巴尔干.
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那为什么我们就在巴尔干半岛做到了呢?
10:28
We did it just like that.
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我就是照这样做的
10:30
I'm talking about regularizing正则化 it, making制造 it transparent透明.
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我们现在需要的就是将其规范化,透明化
10:32
Would you like Mugabe穆加贝 gone走了?
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你要除掉穆加贝么?
10:34
Would you like Kim Jong-Il金正日, who's谁是 killed杀害 about two million百万 people,
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你要除掉杀害了大约2百万人的金正日么?
10:36
would you like him gone走了?
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要么?
10:39
Would you like a better system系统?
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你喜欢一个更好的系统么?
10:42
This is why it matters事项 to the military军事.
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这就是为什么它这么重要
10:44
They've他们已经 been experiencing经历 an identity身分 crisis危机 since以来 the end结束 of the Cold War战争.
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从冷战末期他们就经历着身份危机
10:48
I'm not talking about the difference区别 between之间 reality现实 and desire欲望,
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我现在不是在讲现实与期望的差别
10:51
which哪一个 I can do because I'm not inside the beltway绕城高速.
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虽然真的能讲清楚,因为我不在华盛顿
10:53
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
10:56
I'm talking about the 1990s.
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说说上世纪90年代
10:57
The Berlin柏林 Wall falls下降. We do Desert沙漠 Storm风暴.
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柏林墙倒了,我们完成了沙漠风暴
11:00
The split分裂 starts启动 to emerge出现 between之间 those in the military军事
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军队中那些看到美好未来的人
11:02
who see a future未来 they can live生活 with,
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还有那些看到一种令他们惊恐的未来的人
11:04
and those who see a future未来 that starts启动 to scare them,
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他们之间的裂痕开始愈合
11:06
like the U.S. submarine潜艇 community社区,
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就像美军潜水艇部队
11:08
which哪一个 watches手表 the Soviet苏联 Navy海军 disappear消失 overnight过夜.
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目睹了苏联海军的一夜消失
11:10
Ah!
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11:12
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
11:14
So they start开始 moving移动 from reality现实 towards desire欲望
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因此他们开始从现实走向理想
11:18
and they create创建 their own拥有 special特别 language语言
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他们创造了特殊的语言
11:20
to describe描述 their voyage航程 of self-discovery自我发现 and self-actualization自我实现.
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来描述这段自我发现、自我实现的旅程
11:23
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
11:26
The problem问题 is you need a big, sexy性感的 opponent对手 to fight斗争 against反对.
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问题是,你需要一个强大而又性感的对手
11:28
And if you can't find one you've got to make one up.
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如果你找不到,你就需要自己造一个
11:30
China中国, all grown长大的 up, going to be a looker旁观者!
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中国,或所有成长起来的国家,都是不错的对象
11:33
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
11:37
The rest休息 of the military军事 got dragged down into the muck粪肥
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整个上世纪90年代
11:39
across横过 the 1990s
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其余的部队都被拖到垃圾堆里去了
11:40
and they developed发达 this very derisive嘲弄 term术语 to describe描述 it:
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他们提出了这种非常自嘲的说法
11:42
military军事 operations操作 other than war战争.
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叫“非战争军事行动”
11:45
I ask you, who joins加入 the military军事 to do things other than war战争?
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我问你,谁会只为了非战争军事行动而参军?
11:47
Actually其实, most of them.
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事实上,大多数军人都是如此
11:50
Jessica杰西卡 Lynch林奇 never planned计划 on shooting射击 back.
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Jessica Lynch(从伊拉克战场被俘后归国的女战斗英雄)从没想过要开枪回击敌人
11:53
Most of them don't pick up a rifle步枪.
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大多数人都没摸过枪
11:57
I maintain保持 this is code inside the Army军队 for,
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我坚持认为这是军队内部的法则
11:59
"We don't want to do this."
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因为我们不想这么做
12:03
They spent花费 the 1990s working加工 the messy scene现场
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军方在上世纪90年代一直在试图解决这件事
12:05
between之间 globalized全球化 parts部分 of the world世界
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尤其是在世界上的美军可触及的各个角落
12:07
What I call the core核心 and the gap间隙.
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我称之为核心的差距
12:12
The Clinton克林顿 administration行政 wasn't interested有兴趣 in running赛跑 this.
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克林顿政府可不喜欢这样
12:14
For eight years年份, after screwing拧紧 up the relationship关系 on day one --
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整整八年,在他上任的第一天起就犯下了这个错误
12:16
inauguration就职典礼 day with gays同性恋者 in the military军事 --
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与存在同性恋的军队站在一起,进行他的就职演说
12:19
which哪一个 was deft麻利.
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而且相当敏捷灵巧
12:21
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
12:23
So we were home alone单独 for eight years年份.
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所以我们在家里孤独了八年之久
12:25
And what did we do home alone单独?
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我们在这八年中做了什么呢?
12:27
We bought one military军事 and we operated操作 another另一个.
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我们养着一支部队,然后派另一支去打仗
12:29
It's like the guy who goes to the doctor医生 and says,
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就像一个人到医生面前,说:
12:31
"Doctor医生, it hurts伤害 when I do this."
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“医生,当我这样做的时候,我很疼”
12:34
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
12:37
The doctor医生 says, "Stop doing that you idiot白痴."
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医生说:“笨蛋,那你就别再那样做不就行了?”
12:40
I used to give this brief简要 inside the Pentagon五角大楼 in the early 1990s.
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我在90年代初期一直给五角大楼这个建议
12:42
I'd say, "You're buying购买 one military军事 and you're operating操作 another另一个,
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我说:“你们现在正在养着一支部队,却派另一支去打仗
12:44
and eventually终于 it's going to hurt伤害. It's wrong错误.
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最后这会让我们都很痛,这样做事是错误的
12:46
Bad Pentagon五角大楼, bad!"
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五角大楼那些坏蛋,坏蛋!”
12:48
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
12:50
And they'd他们会 say, "Dr博士. Barnett巴尼特, you are so right.
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然后他们说:“Barnett博士,你很正确
12:52
Can you come back next下一个 year and remind提醒 us again?"
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请明年再来,然后再提醒我们一次好么?”
12:54
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
13:00
Some people say 9/11 heals愈合 the rift裂痕 --
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有人说911解决了这个问题
13:02
jerks抽搐 the long-term长期 transformation转型 gurus大师
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他们认为911让那些所谓的专家
13:05
out of their 30,000 foot脚丫子 view视图 of history历史,
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丢开了三万英尺高的历史观
13:07
drags拖动 them down in to the muck粪肥 and says, "You want a networked联网 opponent对手?
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让他们滚到一边,然后说,你想要一个网络化了的对手?
13:09
I've got one, he's everywhere到处, go find him."
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我就有一个,他无处不在,去把他找出来
13:12
It elevates提升 MOOTW非战争军事行动 -- how we pronounce发音 that acronym缩写 --
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然后我们就有了MOOTW(非战争军事行动)——我们就是这样读它的缩写——
13:15
from crap掷骰子 to grand盛大 strategy战略,
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从废话中提炼出了伟大的战略
13:18
because that's how you're going to shrink收缩 that gap间隙.
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因为那是你准备缩小差距的方式
13:20
Some people put these two things together一起
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有些人把这两件事归到一起
13:21
and they call it empire帝国, which哪一个 I think is a boneheaded愚蠢的 concept概念.
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称之为绝对权力,我觉得这是一派胡言
13:24
Empire帝国 is about the enforcement强制 of not just minimal最小 rule规则 sets,
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据对权力是强制性的,而不只是你所做不到的
13:26
which哪一个 you cannot不能 do,
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最小规则集
13:28
but maximum最大值 rule规则 sets which哪一个 you must必须 do.
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但是那些你所必须去做的最大规则集
13:30
It's not our system系统 of governance治理.
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却不属于你所能监管的系统
13:32
Never how we've我们已经 sought追捧 to interact相互作用 with the outside world世界.
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我们从来没有试图去与外界互动
13:34
I prefer比较喜欢 that phrase短语 System系统 Administration行政.
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我更喜欢“系统监管”这个说法
13:36
We enforce执行 the minimal最小 rule规则 sets
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我们执行最小规则集
13:38
for maintaining维持 connectivity连接 to the global全球 economy经济.
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来维系与全球经济的联系
13:40
Certain某些 bad things you cannot不能 do.
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有些特定的事情你是坚决不能去做的
13:45
How this impacts影响 the way we think about the future未来 of war战争.
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如何影响到我们思考战争的未来的方式
13:47
This is a concept概念 which哪一个 gets得到 me vilified诋毁 throughout始终 the Pentagon五角大楼.
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这个概念让我被所有五角大楼的人都鄙视了一遍
13:50
It makes品牌 me very popular流行 as well.
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同时它也让我现在如此的受欢迎
13:52
Everybody's每个人都 got an opinion意见.
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人人都有自己的观点
13:54
Going back to the beginning开始 of our country国家 --
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回顾我们国家的历史初期
13:56
historically历史, defenses防御 meant意味着 protection保护 of the homeland家园.
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在历史上,国防意味着保卫家园
14:00
Security安全 has meant意味着 everything else其他.
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安全高于一切
14:03
Written书面 into our constitution宪法,
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这是写进我们的宪法的
14:05
two different不同 forces军队, two different不同 functions功能.
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两种不同的力量,两种不同的功能
14:08
Raise提高 an army军队 when you need it,
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需要的时候,就养一支部队
14:10
and maintain保持 a navy海军 for day-to-day日复一日 connectivity连接.
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需要海军就养一支海军
14:15
A Department of War战争, a Department of Everything Else其他.
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一个战争部门,一个战争之外的部门
14:19
A big stick, a baton指挥棒 stick.
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一个是大棒,另一个却是指挥棒
14:23
Can of whupwhup ass屁股,
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不但要把他们打倒
14:26
the networking联网 force.
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而且要建立一个网络来进行系统监管
14:28
In 1947 we merged合并的 these two things together一起
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1947年国防部把这两件事情
14:30
in the Defense防御 Department.
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融合到了一起
14:32
Our long-term长期 rationale合理 becomes,
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这就成为了我们的长期理论基础
14:34
we're involved参与 in a hair头发 trigger触发 stand off with the Soviets苏联.
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我们卷入了一种与苏联一触即发的境地
14:37
To attack攻击 America美国 is to risk风险 blowing up the world世界.
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进攻美国就是威胁全世界
14:40
We connected连接的 national国民 security安全 to international国际 security安全
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我们将国家安全与世界安全联系起来
14:44
with about a seven minute分钟 time delay延迟.
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其中只有七分钟的延时
14:48
That's not our problem问题 now.
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现在那已经不是我们的问题了
14:50
They can kill three million百万 in Chicago芝加哥 tomorrow明天
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明天他们就能在芝加哥杀死三百万人
14:52
and we don't go to the mattresses床垫 with nukes核武器.
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而且我们没有核武器床垫
14:55
That's the scary害怕 part部分.
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那才是最可怕的
14:57
The question is how do we reconnect重新连接 American美国 national国民 security安全
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问题是我们如何再次将美国的安全与世界的安全联系起来
15:01
with global全球 security安全 to make the world世界 a lot more comfortable自在,
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让世界拥有安全保证,变得更美好
15:05
and to embed and contextualize情境 our employment雇用
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同时又让我们在全球的部队
15:08
of force around the planet行星?
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参与其中
15:13
What's happened发生 since以来 is that bifurcation分枝 I described描述.
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目前的情况,正是我所描述的一种
15:17
We talked about this going all the way back
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我们讨论了这种
15:18
to the end结束 of the Cold War战争.
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退回到冷战末期的情况
15:20
Let's have a Department of War战争, and a Department of Something Else其他.
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我们需要一个战争部门,以及一个战争之外的部门
15:22
Some people say, "Hell地狱, 9/11 did it for you."
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有人说,嘿,911已经为你完成了这个想法
15:26
Now we've我们已经 got a home game游戏 and an away game游戏.
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现在我们已经有了主场和客场之分
15:28
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
15:34
The Department of Homeland家园 Security安全 is a strategic战略 feel good measure测量.
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建立本土安全部门是一个很好的战略方法
15:38
It's going to be the Department of Agriculture农业 for the 21stST century世纪.
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它将成为21世纪的农业部门
15:42
TSATSA -- thousands数千 standing常设 around.
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TSA的意思就是成千上万人站在周围
15:45
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
15:52
Just be grateful感激 Robert罗伯特 Reed芦苇 didn't shove that bomb炸弹 up his ass屁股.
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感谢罗伯特里德没有将炸弹塞进屁股里
15:55
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
16:09
Because we'd星期三 all be gay同性恋者 then.
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因为我们那时都将是同性恋
16:12
I supported支持的 the war战争 in Iraq伊拉克.
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我支持伊拉克战争
16:14
He was a bad guy with multiple priors先验.
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他是个有着多重前科的坏人
16:16
It's not like we had to find him
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我们是不可能在他杀人的现场
16:18
actually其实 killing谋杀 somebody live生活 to arrest逮捕 him.
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找到并逮捕他的
16:23
I knew知道 we'd星期三 kick ass屁股 in the war战争 with the Leviathan利维坦 Force.
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我早就知道我们在用“巨轮之力”来战斗
16:25
I knew知道 we'd星期三 have a hard time with what followed其次.
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我早就知道之后我们会经历一段困难的时期
16:28
But I know this organization组织 doesn't change更改 until直到 it experiences经验 failure失败.
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但是我知道不经历失败,我们的组织是不会改变的
16:32
What do I mean by these two different不同 forces军队?
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我提出这两种力量是为了说明什么呢?
16:35
This is the Hobbesian霍布斯 Force.
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这就是霍布斯的力量
16:37
I love this force. I don't want to see it go.
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我喜欢它,我不想没有它
16:39
That plus nukes核武器 rules规则 out great power功率 war战争.
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我不愿意只看到由核武器支配的大国战争
16:41
This is the military军事 the rest休息 of the world世界 wants us to build建立.
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这才是世界需要我们建立的军事力量
16:43
It's why I travel旅行 all over the world世界 talking to foreign国外 militaries军队.
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这就是为什么我满世界地跑,去与各国军方交流
16:46
What does this mean?
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这意味着什么呢?
16:49
It means手段 you've got to stop pretending假装
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意味着你不能再假装自己能都用同样的
16:51
you can do these two very disparate不同 skill技能 sets with the same相同 19-year-old-岁.
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19岁左右的人来完成两件完全不同的事情
16:54
Switching交换 back, morning早上, afternoon下午, evening晚间,
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换回去,早、中、晚
16:57
morning早上, afternoon下午, evening晚间.
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早、中、晚
16:59
Handing汉鼎 out aid援助, shooting射击 back,
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给予援助,还击
17:01
handing移交 out aid援助, shooting射击 back.
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给予援助,还击
17:03
It's too much.
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太过分了
17:05
The 19-year-olds- 年的孩子 get tired from the switching交换, OK?
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那些19岁的家伙会累的好不好
17:08
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
17:10
That force on the left, you can train培养 a 19-year-old-岁 to do that.
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对于左边的力量,你可以训练一群19岁的人去做
17:13
That force on the right is more like a 40-year-old-岁 cop警察.
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但右边的力量就必须要一群40岁左右的人去做了
17:16
You need the experience经验.
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你需要经验
17:19
What does this mean in terms条款 of operations操作?
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那怎么行动呢?
17:23
The rule规则 is going to be this.
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是这样的
17:26
That SysSYS Admin管理员 force is the force that never comes home,
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“系统监管”部队是从来不回家的部队
17:29
does most of your work.
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但去完成了大部分任务
17:31
You break打破 out that Leviathan利维坦 Force only every一切 so often经常.
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你频繁地派出“巨轮之力”
17:34
But here's这里的 the promise诺言 you make to the American美国 public上市,
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但是你要向美国民众保证
17:36
to your own拥有 people, to the world世界.
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向你的人民、向世界保证
17:38
You break打破 out that Leviathan利维坦 Force,
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你派出了军事力量
17:40
you promise诺言, you guarantee保证 that you're going to mount安装
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你保证,你会在随后
17:43
one hell地狱 of a -- immediately立即 -- follow-on后续 SysSYS Admin管理员 effort功夫.
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立刻跟上“系统监管”
17:47
Don't plan计划 for the war战争 unless除非 you plan计划 to win赢得 the peace和平.
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只能在你真的要实现和平的时候,才能进行战争!
17:49
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
17:55
Other differences分歧. Leviathan利维坦
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另一个区别是军事力量
17:57
traditional传统 partners伙伴, they all look like the Brits英国人
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传统的伙伴,都像英国人
17:59
and their former前任的 colonies群落.
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以及他们的殖民地
18:01
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
18:03
Including包含 us, I would remind提醒 you.
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我还要提醒你,这也包括我们
18:05
The rest休息 -- wider更宽的 array排列 of partners伙伴.
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剩下的,更广泛的同盟者
18:07
International国际 organizations组织, non-governmental民间 organizations组织,
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有国际组织、非政府组织
18:09
private私人的 voluntary自主性 organizations组织, contractors承包商.
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私人志愿者组织、承包商
18:11
You're not going to get away from that.
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你不能不管他们
18:13
Leviathan利维坦 Force, it's all about joint联合 operations操作 between之间 the military军事 services服务.
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巨轮之力,都只是在军事方面的联合行动
18:16
We're doneDONE with that.
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我们已经做完了
18:18
What we need to do is inter-agency机构间 operations操作,
405
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我们需要去做的是在那些组织之间去开展行动
18:21
which哪一个 frankly坦率地说 Condi康迪 Rice白饭 was in charge收费 of.
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也就是赖斯管的那摊子事
18:23
And I'm amazed吃惊 nobody没有人 asked her that question when she was confirmed确认.
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而我很奇怪为什么没人问她有关于那方面的问题
18:26
I call the Leviathan利维坦 Force your dad's爸爸的 military军事.
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我把“巨轮之力”称为男人的力量
18:29
I like them young年轻, male, unmarried未婚, slightly pissed生气 off.
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我喜欢那些年轻、未婚、易怒的男孩子们
18:33
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
18:40
I call the SysSYS Admin管理员 Force your mom's妈妈的 military军事.
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我把“系统监管”称为女人的力量
18:42
It's everything the man's男人的 military军事 hates.
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关于它的每件事都是男人不屑于做的
18:44
Gender性别 balanced均衡 much more, older旧的, educated博学, married已婚 with children孩子.
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这样性别更平衡、更成熟、有更好的教育,就会有更好的结果
18:49
The force on the left, up or out.
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左边的力量要么使用,要不就不用
18:52
The force on the right, in and out.
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而右边的力量不可或缺
18:55
The force on the left respects尊重 Posse波塞 ComitatusComitatus restrictions限制
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左边的力量要顾及到在调配美国国内的
18:58
on the use of force inside the U.S.
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临时部队时遇到的问题
19:00
The force on the right's正确的是 going to obliterate it.
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而右边的力量就会扫平一切问题
19:02
That's where the National国民 Guard's民警卫队 going to be.
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那就是国民警卫队要做的事情
19:03
The force on the left is never coming未来 under the purview范围
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左边的力量从来不需要考虑
19:05
of the International国际 Criminal刑事 Court法庭.
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是否违反了国际刑事法庭的规定
19:07
SysSYS Admin管理员 Force has to.
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但“系统监管”会考虑
19:11
Different不同 definitions定义 of network网络 centricity为中心.
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二者对网络中心的定义是不同的
19:14
One takes down networks网络, one puts看跌期权 them up.
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一个是摧毁网络,一个是建立网络
19:17
And you've got to wage工资 war战争 here in such这样 a way to facilitate促进 that.
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你必须在以一种更好的方式来发动战争
19:21
Do we need a bigger budget预算?
426
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我们需要更多预算么?
19:23
Do we need a draft草案 to pull this off?
427
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我们需要预制一个计划么?
19:26
Absolutely绝对 not.
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完全不需要
19:30
I've been told by the Revolution革命 of Military军事 Affairs事务 crowd人群 for years年份,
429
1145000
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多年来倡导军事变革的人们一种跟我讲
19:34
we can do it faster更快, cheaper便宜, smaller, just as lethal致命.
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我们能做得更快、花费更少、动员的规模更小,给出致命一击
19:37
I say, "Great, I'm going to take the SysSYS Admin管理员 budget预算 out of your hide隐藏."
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我说,“那太好了,我要把‘系统监管’的钱从你的预算里拿出来”
19:41
Here's这里的 the larger point.
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这才是重点
19:43
You're going to build建立 the SysSYS Admin管理员 Force inside the U.S. Military军事 first.
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你要首先在美国军队内部建立“系统监管”力量
19:45
But ultimately最终 you're going to civilianizecivilianize it, probably大概 two thirds三分之二.
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但是最终你要将其中的大约三分之二平民化
19:49
Inter国米 agency-ize机构-IZE it, internationalize国际化 it.
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将它推广到各种组织之间,使其全球化
19:53
So yes, it begins开始 inside the Pentagon五角大楼,
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当然,这要从五角大楼开始
19:55
but over time it's going to cross交叉 that river.
437
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但是很快就会越过那条河
19:58
(Laughter笑声)
438
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(笑声)
20:01
I have been to the mountain top最佳. I can see the future未来.
439
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我已经登顶了,我能看到希望
20:04
I may可能 not live生活 long enough足够 to get you there, but it's going to happen发生.
440
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我可能不能活到那一天,但是事情已经开始进行了
20:07
We're going to have a Department of Something Else其他
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我们会拥有一个战争之外的部门
20:09
between之间 war战争 and peace和平.
442
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处理战争和和平之间的事务
20:11
Last slide滑动.
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最后一页
20:12
Who gets得到 custody保管 of the kids孩子?
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那么谁来照顾这些孩子们呢?
20:14
This is where the Marines海军陆战队员 in the audience听众 get kind of tense紧张.
445
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台下的海军陆战队员们开始有点紧张了
20:16
(Laughter笑声)
446
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(笑声)
20:23
And this is when they think about beating跳动 the crap掷骰子 out of me
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这正是他们把我的话
20:25
after the talk.
448
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当成废话的时刻
20:27
(Laughter笑声)
449
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(笑声)
20:28
Read Max马克斯 Boon福利.
450
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读一下Max Boon
20:30
This is the history历史 of the marines海军陆战队 -- small wars战争, small arms武器.
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这是海军陆战队的历史——小型的战争,轻型的武器
20:32
The Marines海军陆战队员 are like my West西 Highland高地 Terrier.
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海军陆战队就像我的西高地白梗(一种狗)
20:34
They get up every一切 morning早上, they want to dig a hole
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每天早上醒来,挖一个洞
20:36
and they want to kill something.
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然后杀死些什么
20:38
(Laughter笑声)
455
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2000
(笑声)
20:40
I don't want my Marines海军陆战队员 handing移交 out aid援助.
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我不想我的海军陆战队去给谁提供援助
20:43
I want them to be Marines海军陆战队员.
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我只想让他们当海军陆战队
20:46
That's what keeps保持 the SysSYS Admin管理员 Force from being存在 a pussy force.
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这使得“系统监管”力量免于沦为一直柔弱的部队
20:48
It keeps保持 it from being存在 the U.N.
459
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免于变成联合国的部队
20:50
You shoot射击 at these people the Marines海军陆战队员 are going to come over and kill you.
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你若向他们射击,那么海军陆战队员们会冲过来杀掉你
20:52
(Laughter笑声)
461
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(笑声)
20:55
(Applause掌声)
462
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(掌声)
20:58
Department of Navy海军, strategic战略 subs潜艇 go this way,
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海军总部的战略者们就要走这条路
21:01
surface表面 combatants战斗 are over there,
464
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水面战斗部队就在那里
21:03
and the news新闻 is they may可能 actually其实 be that small.
465
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将来可能他们会变得很小
21:05
(Laughter笑声)
466
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(笑声)
21:08
I call it the Smart聪明 Dust灰尘 Navy海军.
467
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我将那时的海军称之为“明智之尘”
21:10
I tell young年轻 officers长官, "You may可能 command命令 500 ships船舶 in your career事业.
468
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我告诉年轻的官员,你可以在你一生之中指挥500艘舰船
21:12
Bad news新闻 is they may可能 not have anybody任何人 on them."
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但是船上没有人
21:17
Carriers运营商 go both ways方法 because they're a swing摇摆 asset财富.
470
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航母部队两条路线都要走,因为他们是不固定的
21:21
You'll你会 see the pattern模式 -- airborne空降, just like carriers运营商.
471
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你会看到这样的模式——海军航空部队,就像航母部队一样
21:24
Armor盔甲 goes this way.
472
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装甲部队也会如此
21:26
Here's这里的 the dirty secret秘密 of the Air空气 Force,
473
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下面就是关于空军的恶心的秘密
21:27
you can win赢得 by bombing轰炸.
474
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你会用炸弹取胜
21:29
But you need lots of these guys on the ground地面 to win赢得 the peace和平.
475
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但是在赢得和平的过程中你需要很多这些在陆上的家伙
21:32
Shinseki新关 was right with the argument论据.
476
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辛赛奇的观点是对的
21:36
Air空气 force, strategic战略 airlift空运 goes both ways方法.
477
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4000
空军,在战略上的空运中也要两条腿走路
21:40
Bombers轰炸机, fighters战士 go over here.
478
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轰炸机,战斗机也要这样走
21:45
Special特别 Operations操作 Command命令 down at Tampa坦帕.
479
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特殊行动指挥部在坦帕市
21:47
Trigger-pullers触发车夫 go this way.
480
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步兵也要如此
21:51
Civil国内 Affairs事务, that bastard混蛋 child儿童, comes over here.
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民政部,那个混蛋小孩,也要到这里来
21:54
Return返回 to the Army军队.
482
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回到部队中去
21:56
The point about the trigger-pullers触发车夫 and Special特别 Operations操作 Command命令.
483
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这是关于步兵和特别行动指挥部的
21:59
No off season季节, these guys are always active活性.
484
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不需要理由,这些家伙总是很活跃
22:02
They drop下降 in, do their business商业, disappear消失.
485
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他们介入、做事情,然后消失
22:08
See me now. Don't talk about it later后来.
486
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现在看我,以后可不要再讨论这个问题了
22:10
(Laughter笑声)
487
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4000
(笑声)
22:14
I was never here.
488
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我从没来过这里
22:16
(Laughter笑声)
489
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3000
(笑声)
22:19
The world世界 is my playground操场.
490
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世界都是我的游乐场
22:21
(Laughter笑声)
491
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4000
(笑声)
22:25
I want to keep trigger-pullers触发车夫 trigger-happy好战的.
492
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我只想让步兵们开开心心地当地道的步兵
22:27
I want the rules规则 to be as loose疏松 as possible可能.
493
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2000
我想让这些规则尽可能地变宽松
22:29
Because when the thing gets得到 prevented防止 in Chicago芝加哥
494
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因为在芝加哥事情受阻了
22:31
with the three million百万 dead
495
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有三百万人都死了
22:33
that perverts变态 our political政治 system系统 beyond all recognition承认,
496
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这就让我们的政治部门很受打击
22:35
these are the guys who are going to kill them first.
497
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有些人要先杀掉政治部门的人
22:38
So it's better off to have them make some mistakes错误 along沿 the way
498
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所以最好让他们沿着这条路先犯点错误
22:40
than to see that.
499
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而不是只是眼睁睁地看着
22:42
Reserve保留 component零件 --
500
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保留部分——
22:44
National国民 Guard守卫 reserves储量 overwhelmingly压倒性 SysSYS Admin管理员.
501
1339000
3000
国民警卫队保留占绝对优势的“系统监管”力量
22:47
How are you going to get them to work for this force?
502
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你怎样才能让他们为“系统监管”做事呢?
22:49
Most firemen消防员 in this country国家 do it for free自由.
503
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2000
美国的许多消防员都是免费为它做事的
22:51
This is not about money.
504
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这不是钱的问题
22:53
This is about being存在 up front面前 with these guys and gals加尔斯.
505
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而是要让这些孩子们重到最前面
22:58
Last point, intelligence情报 community社区 --
506
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最后一点,情报界——
23:00
the muscle肌肉 and the defense防御 agencies机构 go this way.
507
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政界和国防部都要参与
23:04
What should be the CIA中央情报局, open打开, analytical分析, open打开 source资源
508
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CIA要变的开放,去分析问题,公开资源
23:07
should come over here.
509
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2000
要参与其中
23:09
The information信息 you need to do this is not secret秘密.
510
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你做事所需要的信息不是秘密
23:12
It's not secret秘密.
511
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这不是秘密
23:14
Read that great piece in the New Yorker纽约客
512
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1000
读一下《纽约客》上的那一页
23:15
about how our echo回声 boomers, 19 to 25, over in Iraq伊拉克
513
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3000
关于那些婴儿潮一代的子女们,大约19到25岁的那些在伊拉克的家伙们
23:18
taught each other how to do SysSYS Admin管理员 work,
514
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3000
是怎样通过互联网上的聊天室来相互学习
23:21
over the Internet互联网 in chat rooms客房.
515
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2000
完成“系统监管”的工作的
23:23
They said, "Al Qaeda凯达 could be listening."
516
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他们说,“基地组织应当听听”
23:25
They said, "Well, Jesus耶稣, they already已经 know this stuff东东."
517
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他们说,“其实,主啊,他们已经都知道啦”
23:27
(Laughter笑声)
518
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(笑声)
23:30
Take a gift礼品 in the left hand.
519
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2000
左手拿一个礼物
23:32
These are the sunglasses墨镜 that don't scare people, simple简单 stuff东东.
520
1387000
4000
有不会吓到别人的太阳镜,简单的东西
23:38
Censors检查员 and transparency透明度, the overheads费用 go in both directions方向.
521
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经费不仅要用于审查工作,也要用来使工作透明化
23:41
Thanks谢谢.
522
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谢谢大家
Translated by Liang Qi
Reviewed by Zhu Jie

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Thomas Barnett - Military strategist
Strategic planner Thomas Barnett has advised US leaders on national security since the end of the Cold War. His bold ideas about the future of warfare and the military are spelled out in his best-selling book The Pentagon's New Map.

Why you should listen

Thomas P.M. Barnett's bracing confidence and radical recommendations make him a powerful force shaping the future of the US military.

In his book The Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in the Twenty-First Century, Barnett draws on a fascinating combination of economic, political and cultural factors to predict and explain the nature of modern warfare. He presents concrete, world-changing strategies for transforming the US military -- adrift in the aftermath of the Cold War and 9/11 -- into a two-tiered power capable not only of winning battles, but of promoting and preserving international peace.

Thomas has been a senior adviser to military and civilian leaders in a range of offices, including the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, Central Command and Special Operations Command. During the tumultuous period from November 2001 to June 2003, he advised the Pentagon on transforming military capabilities to meet future threats. He led the five-year NewRuleSet.Project, which studied how globalization is transforming warfare. The study found, among other things, that when a country's per-capita income rises above ~$3,000, war becomes much less likely.

Barnett is unusually outspoken in a field cloaked in secrecy. His follow-up book is Blueprint for Action: A Future Worth Creating, and he writes regular columns for Esquire and the Knoxville News Sentinel. He also maintains a prolific blog, where he covers current global events.

More profile about the speaker
Thomas Barnett | Speaker | TED.com