TED2005
Thomas Barnett: Let's rethink America's military strategy
托馬斯 巴奈特 為和平繪製新地圖
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在這個令人鼓舞的坦率的演講中，國際安全策略專家托馬斯 巴奈特提出了一個合理而又簡單到令人驚奇的瓦解冷戰后美國軍隊的方案：將其一分為二
Thomas Barnett - Military strategist
Strategic planner Thomas Barnett has advised US leaders on national security since the end of the Cold War. His bold ideas about the future of warfare and the military are spelled out in his best-selling book The Pentagon's New Map. Full bio
Strategic planner Thomas Barnett has advised US leaders on national security since the end of the Cold War. His bold ideas about the future of warfare and the military are spelled out in his best-selling book The Pentagon's New Map. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:26
I get asked a lot what the difference between my work is
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很多人問我，我的工作
00:28
and typical Pentagon long-range strategic planners.
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與一位典型的五角大樓長期戰略計劃者的工作有什麼區別
00:32
And the answer I like to offer is
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我給他們的答案是
00:33
what they typically do is they think about the future of wars
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那些計劃者們總是在戰爭的大背景下
00:36
in the context of war.
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思考戰爭的未來。
00:38
And what I've spent 15 years doing in this business --
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而我花費了15年時間所做的事情
00:41
and it's taken me almost 14 to figure it out --
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其實我花了14年才搞清楚我到底在做什麼——
00:43
is I think about the future of wars in the context of everything else.
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是我卻是在非戰爭的大背景下思考戰爭的未來
00:48
So I tend to specialize on the scene between war and peace.
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所以我傾向於關注那些介於戰爭和和平之間的事情
00:52
The material I'm going to show you is one idea from a book
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我要向大家介紹的是一本書中的一個觀點
00:55
with a lot of ideas.
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呃~不是一個，而是好幾個觀點
00:56
It's the one that takes me around the world right now
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正是為此我才周遊世界
00:58
interacting with foreign militaries quite a bit.
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與各國軍方交流
01:01
The material was generated in two years of work I did
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這些觀點都是基於我這兩年來
01:03
for the Secretary of Defense,
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為美國國防部所做的工作
01:04
thinking about a new national grand strategy
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尋找一個新的國家整體戰略
01:07
for the United States.
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——為美國
01:09
I'm going to present a problem
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我想給大家提出一個問題
01:10
and try to give you an answer.
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看看您怎麼回答
01:13
Here's my favorite bonehead concept from the 1990s in the Pentagon:
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以下是自上世紀90年代以來我最喜歡的“五角大樓的愚蠢概念”
01:17
the theory of anti-access, area-denial asymmetrical strategies.
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反介入、區域封鎖的非對稱戰略理論
01:21
Why do we call it that?
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為什麼我們給它起了這麼一個名字呢？
01:22
Because it's got all those A's lined up I guess.
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我猜這是因為它所有的單詞開頭都是A
01:30
This is gobbledygook for
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帶官腔的文章都這樣
01:32
if the United States fights somebody we're going to be huge.
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如果美國要打誰，那麼我們美國必是巨大的
01:35
They're going to be small.
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則對方必是渺小的
01:36
And if they try to fight us in the traditional, straight-up manner
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如果對方要以傳統的直接的方式開戰的話
01:38
we're going to kick their ass,
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我們必能將其揍扁
01:39
which is why people don't try to do that any more.
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正因為如此，他們才不會以那樣傳統的方式向美國開戰
01:42
I met the last Air Force General who had actually
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我遇到過一個當過空軍將軍的傢伙
01:45
shot down an enemy plane in combat.
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他曾經在戰鬥中擊落過敵人的飛機
01:47
He's now a one star General.
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而他現在是一個一星上將
01:49
That's how distant we are from even meeting an air force
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而自上次我們發現一個願意與美國空軍部隊進行空戰的敵人
01:53
willing to fly against ours.
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竟然已經是那麼久遠的事情
01:55
So that overmatched capability creates problems --
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因此，這種壓倒對手的能力引起了許多問題
01:58
catastrophic successes the White House calls them.
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——而白宮稱之為“災難性的成功”
02:01
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
02:04
And we're trying to figure that out,
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我們正努力搞懂它
02:06
because it is an amazing capability.
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因為這是一種令人驚奇的能力
02:08
The question is, what's the good you can do with it?
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問題是，你能用它做什麼呢？
02:11
OK?
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對麼？
02:13
The theory of anti-access, area-denial asymmetrical strategies --
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反介入、區域封鎖的非對稱戰略理論——
02:17
gobbledygook that we sell to Congress,
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我們賣給國會的官樣文章
02:19
because if we just told them we can kick anybody's asses
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因為如果我們直接告訴議員們我們能揍扁敵人
02:22
they wouldn't buy us all the stuff we want.
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議員們是不會給我們買我們所需要的東西的
02:24
So we say, area-denial, anti-access asymmetrical strategies
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所以我們將其稱之為反介入、區域封鎖的非對稱戰略理論
02:28
and their eyes glaze over.
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他們一聽，立刻就呆掉了
02:30
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
02:33
And they say, "Will you build it in my district?"
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然後他們會問：“你會不會在我所在的區部署一個“？
02:36
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
02:38
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
02:42
Here's my parody and it ain't much of one.
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下面我將舉一個例子
02:43
Let's talk about a battle space.
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讓我們聊一個“戰鬥區域”
02:44
I don't know, Taiwan Straits 2025.
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我也不懂，台灣海峽2025
02:46
Let's talk about an enemy embedded within that battle space.
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讓我們先談一個在此戰鬥區域中的敵人
02:49
I don't know, the Million Man Swim.
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呃~~比如一百萬個在海峽中游泳的人
02:51
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
02:54
The United States has to access that battle space instantaneously.
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美國必須立刻進入該區域
02:57
They throw up anti-access, area-denial asymmetrical strategies.
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於是使用了反介入、區域封鎖的非對稱戰略理論
03:01
A banana peel on the tarmac.
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而停機坪上出現了一個香蕉皮~
03:03
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
03:04
Trojan horses on our computer networks
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我們電腦網絡中的特洛伊木馬
03:06
reveal all our Achilles' heels instantly.
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立刻告訴敵人我們的致命弱點在何處
03:09
We say, "China, it's yours."
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我們說，這木馬是中國的
03:11
Prometheus approach, largely a geographic definition,
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主要從地理定義上來說，是普羅米修斯的方法
03:14
focuses almost exclusively on the start of conflict.
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幾乎完全集中在衝突的初期
03:16
We field the first-half team in a league
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我們在聯賽的上半段領先
03:18
that insists on keeping score until the end of the game.
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保持這個分數，直到比賽結束
03:21
That's the problem.
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這就是問題所在
03:23
We can run the score up against anybody,
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我們能迅速得分超過任何人
03:25
and then get our asses kicked in the second half --
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然後再後半段的比賽中比人家揍扁
03:27
what they call fourth generation warfare.
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他們稱之為第四代戰爭
03:30
Here's the way I like to describe it instead.
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下面我要描述一下第四代戰爭
03:32
There is no battle space the U.S. Military cannot access.
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目前，沒有美軍不能進入的戰鬥區域
03:35
They said we couldn't do Afghanistan. We did it with ease.
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有人說我們不能進入阿富汗，而我們卻輕易地做到了
03:37
They said we couldn't do Iraq.
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有人說我們不能進入伊拉克
03:39
We did it with 150 combat casualties in six weeks.
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我們也做到了，而且代價是六週內只有150個戰鬥傷員
03:43
We did it so fast we weren't prepared for their collapse.
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我們進入的速度如此之快，以至於我們都還沒有對伊拉克的垮台做好準備
03:47
There is nobody we can't take down.
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世上沒有我們打不垮的敵人
03:50
The question is, what do you do with the power?
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而問題是，我們怎麼使用這樣的能力
03:52
So there's no trouble accessing battle spaces.
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因此，在進入戰鬥區域方面，我們是不存在問題的
03:54
What we have trouble accessing is the transition space
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事實上，我們無法順利進入的
03:57
that must naturally follow,
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是隨之而來的“過渡區域”
03:59
and creating the peace space that allows us to move on.
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並創造允許我們繼續前進的“和平區域”
04:03
Problem is, the Defense Department over here
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問題是，管理此處的國防部門
04:05
beats the hell out of you.
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他媽的把人家趕出去了
04:08
The State Department over here says,
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然後管理此處的國務院人員卻對人家說
04:09
"Come on boy, I know you can make it."
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”來吧伙計，我知道你能行“
04:12
And that poor country runs off that ledge,
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然後那個可憐的國家就逃掉了
04:14
does that cartoon thing and then drops.
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做一些卡通一樣的蠢事然後垮掉了
04:16
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
04:22
This is not about overwhelming force, but proportional force.
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我們的確擁有壓倒性的武力，不應盲目地全部使用
04:24
It's about non-lethal technologies,
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有些事情是於致命性武器無關的
04:26
because if you fire real ammo into a crowd
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因為如果你對一群參與暴亂的婦女和兒童
04:29
of women and children rioting
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開火的話
04:32
you're going to lose friends very quickly.
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你會很快失去你的朋友
04:34
This is not about projecting power, but about staying power,
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這與啟用武力無關，問題在於如何克制使用武力
04:36
which is about legitimacy with the locals.
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關係到合法性的問題
04:39
Who do you access in this transition space?
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你應該派誰進入這種過渡區域呢？
04:41
You have to create internal partners. You have to access coalition partners.
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你必須創造內部的合作夥伴，必須擁有同盟
04:44
We asked the Indians for 17,000 peace keepers.
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我們請17000個印度人來當和平衛士
04:47
I know their senior leadership, they wanted to give it to us.
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我認識他們的高層領導人，他們願意派人給我們
04:50
But they said to us, "You know what?
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但是他們說，你知道麼？
04:52
In that transition space you're mostly hat not enough cattle.
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在那個過渡區域你的人手還不夠
04:56
We don't think you can pull it off,
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我們覺得你還是完不成
04:57
we're not going to give you our 17,000 peace keepers for fodder."
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所以我們不會給我們的17000人去浪費
04:59
We asked the Russians for 40,000.
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我們問俄國要40000人
05:02
They said no.
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他們不給
05:03
I was in China in August, I said,
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我說過，八月份的時候我在中國
05:04
"You should have 50,000 peace keepers in Iraq.
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“你們應該派50000人去伊拉克維和
05:07
It's your oil, not ours."
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因為那是你的石油，不是我的石油”
05:10
Which is the truth. It's their oil.
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事實上，那確實是他們的石油
05:12
And the Chinese said to me, "Dr. Barnett, you're absolutely right.
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然後那個中國人告訴我，“Barnett先生，你完全正確
05:15
In a perfect world we'd have 50,000 there.
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如果世界是完美的，我們願意派50000人過去
05:18
But it's not a perfect world,
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但是現在，世界是不完美的
05:20
and your administration isn't getting us any closer."
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而你們美國人在那裡的管理也沒有讓我們更接近完美世界”
05:24
But we have trouble accessing our outcomes.
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我們在獲取成果上也存在問題
05:27
We lucked out, frankly, on the selection.
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坦白講，我們在選舉上的勝利是都是憑藉運氣
05:29
We face different opponents across these three.
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我們面對著這三方的敵人
05:32
And it's time to start admitting
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是時候開始承認
05:33
you can't ask the same 19-year-old to do it all, day in and day out.
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你不能要求同樣是19歲的人來做所有的事情，過一天算一天
05:37
It's just too damn hard.
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這他媽的太難了
05:39
We have an unparalleled capacity to wage war.
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我們擁有一種不平衡的發動戰爭的能力
05:43
We don't do the everything else so well.
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但我們對非戰爭的事情卻處理不好
05:46
Frankly, we do it better than anybody and we still suck at it.
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坦白說，我們已經比其他任何人做的都要好了，但我們仍然舉步維艱
05:48
We have a brilliant Secretary of War.
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我們有一個出色的“戰爭部長”
05:50
We don't have a Secretary of Everything Else.
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我們卻沒有一個“非戰爭事務部長”
05:53
Because if we did, that guy would be in front of the Senate,
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因為如果我們有，那個傢伙就會成為出色的議員
05:55
still testifying over Abu Ghraib.
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繼續審查伊拉克美軍虐囚事件
05:58
The problem is he doesn't exist.
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問題是這個人並不存在
06:01
There is no Secretary of Everything Else.
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沒有所謂的“非戰爭事務部長”
06:04
I think we have an unparalleled capacity to wage war.
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我認為我們擁有一種不平衡的發動戰爭的能力
06:07
I call that the Leviathan Force.
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我稱之為“巨輪之力”
06:09
What we need to build is a force for the Everything Else.
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而我們需要打造一種能力，是處理非戰爭事務的能力
06:11
I call them the System Administrators.
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我稱之為”系統監管“
06:13
What I think this really represents
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我認為，這說明了我們缺乏一套詳細的規則
06:15
is lack of an A to Z rule set for the world as a whole
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來處理政治破產的國家
06:17
for processing politically bankrupt states.
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使這個世界成為一個整體
06:19
We have one for processing economically bankrupt states.
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我們有處理經濟破產的國家的規則
06:22
It's the IMF Sovereign Bankruptcy Plan, OK?
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就是”國際貨幣基金組織主權破產計劃“，對麼？
06:26
We argue about it every time we use it.
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每次使用它時，我們總在爭論
06:28
Argentina just went through it, broke a lot of rules.
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阿根廷正在實行，打破了許多規則
06:30
They got out on the far end, we said, "Fine, don't worry about it."
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他們快完了，我們說，無所謂啦，不要擔心它
06:33
It's transparent. A certain amount of certainty
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它是透明的、總量確定的
06:36
gives the sense of a non-zero outcome.
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給我們的感覺，總歸多多少少是有產出的
06:38
We don't have one for processing politically bankrupt states
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而當政治破產的時候呢？
06:40
that, frankly, everybody wants gone.
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坦白講，每個人都想逃離
06:43
Like Saddam, like Mugabe, like Kim Jong-Il --
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例如薩達姆，例如穆加貝，例如金正日——
06:47
people who kill in hundreds of thousands or millions.
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那些殺害成百上千人的傢伙
06:51
Like the 250,000 dead so far in Sudan.
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例如目前在蘇丹已經有250000人受害
06:55
What would an A to Z system look like?
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這個監管系統該是什麼樣的呢？
06:57
I'm going to distinguish between what I call
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下面我將區分一下我剛剛所講的
06:59
front half and back half.
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上半場和下半場
07:02
And let's call this red line, I don't know, mission accomplished.
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我稱之為紅線，或者說，”完成了的任務“
07:06
(Laughter)
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笑聲
07:09
(Applause)
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掌聲
07:13
What we have extant right now,
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目前在這個監管系統中，我們已經擁有的
07:15
at the beginning of this system, is the U.N. Security Council as a grand jury.
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是聯合國安理會，它可以作為一個大陪審團
07:17
What can they do?
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他們能做什麼呢？
07:18
They can indict your ass.
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他們能起訴你
07:22
They can debate it. They can write it on a piece of paper.
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他們會討論你問題，然後寫下來
07:24
They can put it in an envelope and mail it to you,
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裝到信封裡寄給你
07:26
and then say in no uncertain terms, "Please cut that out."
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然後說義正言辭地說，請不要這樣做
07:31
(Laughter)
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笑聲
07:36
That gets you about four million dead in Central Africa over the 1990s.
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因為它的存在，讓上世紀90年代的非洲中部死亡了大約4000000人
07:39
That gets you 250,000 dead in the Sudan in the last 15 months.
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因為它的存在，過去的15個月中蘇丹死亡了250000人
07:44
Everybody's got to answer their grandchildren some day
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有一天每個人都要告訴他們的子孫
07:45
what you did about the holocaust in Africa,
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你在非洲大屠殺中擔任了什麼角色
07:48
and you better have an answer.
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到時你最好能答得出來
07:53
We don't have anything to translate that will into action.
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我們無法將那種意願轉化為行動
07:57
What we do have is the U.S.-enabled Leviathan Force that says,
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我們所有的就是美國具有的”巨輪之力“，他說
08:00
"You want me to take that guy down? I'll take that guy down.
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”你要我打倒誰，我就會打到誰
08:03
I'll do it on Tuesday. It will cost you 20 billion dollars."
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我周二就能打到他，那會花費你200億美元“
08:06
(Laughter)
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笑聲
08:11
But here's the deal.
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但是立刻就能成交了
08:13
As soon as I can't find anybody else to air out,
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只要我們找不到任何其他人來
08:15
I leave the scene immediately.
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我就立即離開
08:17
That's called the Powell Doctrine.
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這叫做”鮑威爾主義“
08:21
Way downstream we have the International Criminal Court.
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然後我們有國際刑事法庭
08:23
They love to put them on trial. They've got Milosevic right now.
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他們喜歡審判罪犯，他們現在已經有了米洛舍維奇了
08:25
What are we missing?
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我們還缺什麼？
08:27
A functioning executive that will translate will into action,
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一個能發揮作用、將意願轉化為行動的行政力量
08:30
because we don't have it.
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因為我們還沒有
08:32
Every time we lead one of these efforts
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每次我們作為領導力量去做點什麼
08:34
we have to whip ourselves into this imminent threat thing.
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我們都會為自己製造一種迫在眉睫的巨大威脅
08:38
We haven't faced an imminent threat since
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自從1962年的古巴導彈危機以來
08:40
the Cuban missile crisis in 1962.
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其實我們再也沒有面臨過這種威脅了
08:42
But we use this language from a bygone era
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但我們總在使用一種過了時的語言
08:43
to scare ourselves into doing something
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自我恐嚇地去做一些事情
08:46
because we're a democracy and that's what it takes.
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因為我們是一個民主的國家，就該當如此
08:48
And if that doesn't work we scream, "He's got a gun!"
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如果不能成功，我們就會尖叫，“對方有槍！”
08:50
just as we rush in.
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一邊說著，我們一邊急著往對方那裡趕
08:52
(Laughter)
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笑聲
09:00
And then we look over the body
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然後，我們搜查人家
09:01
and we find an old cigarette lighter and we say,
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我們發現了一個老式的打火機，我們就說
09:03
"Jesus, it was dark."
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“天哪，果真不是什麼好人”
09:05
(Laughter)
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笑聲
09:07
Do you want to do it, France?
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你想讓法國也來這樣做麼？
09:09
France says, "No, but I do like to criticize you after the fact."
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法國說，“不，我不去，但是你做完了我會批評你”
09:14
What we need downstream is a great power enabled --
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我們接下來需要的，就是啟動一種巨大的力量
09:17
what I call that Sys Admin Force.
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我們稱之為“系統監督部隊”
09:19
We should have had 250,000 troops streaming into Iraq
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我們應該派250000部隊去伊拉克
09:21
on the heels of that Leviathan sweeping towards Baghdad.
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為前往巴格達的部隊保駕護航
09:24
What do you get then?
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去了能起什麼作用呢？
09:25
No looting, no military disappearing,
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沒有掠奪，不再有軍人失踪
09:27
no arms disappearing, no ammo disappearing,
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沒有人再偷我們的武器軍火
09:29
no Muqtada al-Sadr -- I'm wrecking his bones --
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也再沒有薩德爾出現——我正在啃他的骨頭——
09:31
no insurgency.
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也沒有叛亂了
09:33
Talk to anybody who was over there in the first six months.
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在前半年的時間裡，與在伊拉克的人交流
09:35
We had six months to feel the lob, to get the job done,
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我們就有六個月的時間去感受“高球”，去完成任務
09:38
and we dicked around for six months.
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我們花六個月的時間去熟悉它
09:40
And then they turned on us.
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然後他們就會站在我們這邊了
09:42
Why? Because they just got fed up.
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為什麼？因為他們只是被激怒了
09:44
They saw what we did to Saddam.
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他們看到了我們隊薩達姆做了什麼
09:46
They said, "You're that powerful, you can resurrect this country.
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他們說，“你們真棒，你們能能讓這個國家復活
09:48
You're America."
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你們是美國”
09:50
What we need is an international reconstruction fund --
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我們需要的是一個國際重建基金
09:52
Sebastian Mallaby, Washington Post, great idea.
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塞巴斯蒂安馬拉比，華盛頓郵報，都挺不錯的
09:54
Model on the IMF.
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這都是如同國際貨幣基金組織一樣的好例子
09:56
Instead of passing the hat each time, OK?
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我們不再需要每次從人們那裡籌集善款了
09:59
Where are we going to find this guy? G20, that's easy.
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那我們從哪裡找到錢呢？ G20嘛，多簡單啊
10:02
Check out their agenda since 9/11.
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看一下911事件後他們的日程表
10:04
All security dominated.
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全都在關心安全問題
10:06
They're going to decide up front how the money gets spent
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他們會提前決定要花多少錢
10:08
just like in the IMF.
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就像國際貨幣基金組織一樣
10:09
You vote according to how much money you put in the kitty.
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你再根據你下注的錢數來進行投票
10:13
Here's my challenge to the Defense Department.
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這是我對國防部門的建議
10:14
You've got to build this force. You've got to seed this force.
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你要建立這支部隊，你要供養這支部隊
10:17
You've got to track coalition partners. Create a record of success.
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你要跟踪聯合部隊，創造一個新的成功記錄
10:20
You will get this model.
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你會成功的
10:22
You tell me it's too hard to do.
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你告訴我這很難
10:24
I'll walk this dog right through that six part series on the Balkans.
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那為什麼我們就在巴爾幹半島做到了呢？
10:28
We did it just like that.
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我就是照這樣做的
10:30
I'm talking about regularizing it, making it transparent.
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我們現在需要的就是將其規範化，透明化
10:32
Would you like Mugabe gone?
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你要除掉穆加貝麼？
10:34
Would you like Kim Jong-Il, who's killed about two million people,
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你要除掉殺害了大約2百萬人的金正日麼？
10:36
would you like him gone?
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要麼？
10:39
Would you like a better system?
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你喜歡一個更好的系統麼？
10:42
This is why it matters to the military.
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這就是為什麼它這麼重要
10:44
They've been experiencing an identity crisis since the end of the Cold War.
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從冷戰末期他們就經歷著身份危機
10:48
I'm not talking about the difference between reality and desire,
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我現在不是在講現實與期望的差別
10:51
which I can do because I'm not inside the beltway.
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雖然真的能講清楚，因為我不在華盛頓
10:53
(Laughter)
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笑聲
10:56
I'm talking about the 1990s.
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雖然真的能講清楚，因為我不在華盛頓
10:57
The Berlin Wall falls. We do Desert Storm.
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柏林牆倒了，我們完成了沙漠風暴
11:00
The split starts to emerge between those in the military
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軍隊中那些看到美好未來的人
11:02
who see a future they can live with,
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還有那些看到一種令他們驚恐的未來的人
11:04
and those who see a future that starts to scare them,
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他們之間的裂痕開始癒合
11:06
like the U.S. submarine community,
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就像美軍潛水艇部隊
11:08
which watches the Soviet Navy disappear overnight.
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目睹了蘇聯海軍的一夜消失
11:10
Ah!
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啊哈
11:12
(Laughter)
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笑聲
11:14
So they start moving from reality towards desire
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因此他們開始從現實走向理想
11:18
and they create their own special language
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他們創造了特殊的語言
11:20
to describe their voyage of self-discovery and self-actualization.
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來描述這段自我發現、自我實現的旅程
11:23
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
11:26
The problem is you need a big, sexy opponent to fight against.
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問題是，你需要一個強大而又性感的對手
11:28
And if you can't find one you've got to make one up.
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如果你找不到，你就需要自己造一個
11:30
China, all grown up, going to be a looker!
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中國，或所有成長起來的國家，都是不錯的對象
11:33
(Laughter)
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笑聲
11:37
The rest of the military got dragged down into the muck
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整個上世紀90年代
11:39
across the 1990s
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其餘的部隊都被拖到垃圾堆裡去了
11:40
and they developed this very derisive term to describe it:
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他們提出了這種非常自嘲的說法
11:42
military operations other than war.
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叫“非戰爭軍事行動”
11:45
I ask you, who joins the military to do things other than war?
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我問你，誰會只為了非戰爭軍事行動而參軍？
11:47
Actually, most of them.
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事實上，大多數軍人都是如此
11:50
Jessica Lynch never planned on shooting back.
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Jessica Lynch從沒想過要開槍回擊敵人
11:53
Most of them don't pick up a rifle.
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大多數人都沒摸過槍
11:57
I maintain this is code inside the Army for,
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我堅持認為這是軍隊內部的法則
11:59
"We don't want to do this."
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因為我們不想這麼做
12:03
They spent the 1990s working the messy scene
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軍方在上世紀90年代一直在試圖解決這件事
12:05
between globalized parts of the world
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尤其是在世界上的美軍可觸及的各個角落
12:07
What I call the core and the gap.
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我稱之為核心的差距
12:12
The Clinton administration wasn't interested in running this.
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克林頓政府可不喜歡這樣
12:14
For eight years, after screwing up the relationship on day one --
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整整八年，在他上任的第一天起就犯下了這個錯誤
12:16
inauguration day with gays in the military --
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與存在同性戀的軍隊站在一起，進行他的就職演說
12:19
which was deft.
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而且相當敏捷靈巧
12:21
(Laughter)
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笑聲
12:23
So we were home alone for eight years.
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所以我們在家裡孤獨了八年之久
12:25
And what did we do home alone?
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我們在這八年中做了什麼呢？
12:27
We bought one military and we operated another.
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我們養著一支部隊，然後派另一支去打仗
12:29
It's like the guy who goes to the doctor and says,
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就像一個人到醫生面前，說：
12:31
"Doctor, it hurts when I do this."
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“醫生，當我這樣做的時候，我很疼”
12:34
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
12:37
The doctor says, "Stop doing that you idiot."
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醫生說：“笨蛋，那你就別再那樣做不就行了？”
12:40
I used to give this brief inside the Pentagon in the early 1990s.
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我在90年代初期一直給五角大樓這個建議
12:42
I'd say, "You're buying one military and you're operating another,
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我說：“你們現在正在養著一支部隊，卻派另一支去打仗
12:44
and eventually it's going to hurt. It's wrong.
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最後這會讓我們都很痛，這樣做事是錯誤的
12:46
Bad Pentagon, bad!"
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五角大樓那些壞蛋，壞蛋！
12:48
(Laughter)
289
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（笑聲）
12:50
And they'd say, "Dr. Barnett, you are so right.
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然後他們說：“Barnett博士，你很正確
12:52
Can you come back next year and remind us again?"
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請明年再來，然後再提醒我們一次好麼？ ”
12:54
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
13:00
Some people say 9/11 heals the rift --
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有人說911解決了這個問題
13:02
jerks the long-term transformation gurus
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他們認為911讓那些所謂的專家
13:05
out of their 30,000 foot view of history,
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丟開了三萬英尺高的歷史觀
13:07
drags them down in to the muck and says, "You want a networked opponent?
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讓他們滾到一邊，然後說，你想要一個網絡化了的對手？
13:09
I've got one, he's everywhere, go find him."
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我就有一個，他無處不在，去把他找出來
13:12
It elevates MOOTW -- how we pronounce that acronym --
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然後我們就有了MOOTW（非戰爭軍事行動）——我們就是這樣
13:15
from crap to grand strategy,
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從廢話中提煉出了偉大的戰略
13:18
because that's how you're going to shrink that gap.
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因為那是你準備縮小差距的方式
13:20
Some people put these two things together
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有些人把這兩件事歸到一起
13:21
and they call it empire, which I think is a boneheaded concept.
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稱之為絕對權力，我覺得這是一派胡言
13:24
Empire is about the enforcement of not just minimal rule sets,
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據對權力是強制性的，而不只是你所做不到的
13:26
which you cannot do,
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最小規則集
13:28
but maximum rule sets which you must do.
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但是那些你所必須去做的最大規則集
13:30
It's not our system of governance.
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卻不屬於你所能監管的系統
13:32
Never how we've sought to interact with the outside world.
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我們從來沒有試圖去與外界互動
13:34
I prefer that phrase System Administration.
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我更喜歡“系統監管”這個說法
13:36
We enforce the minimal rule sets
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我們執行最小規則集
13:38
for maintaining connectivity to the global economy.
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來維繫與全球經濟的聯繫
13:40
Certain bad things you cannot do.
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有些特定的事情你是堅決不能去做的
13:45
How this impacts the way we think about the future of war.
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如何影響到我們思考戰爭的未來的方式
13:47
This is a concept which gets me vilified throughout the Pentagon.
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這個概念讓我被所有五角大樓的人都鄙視了一遍
13:50
It makes me very popular as well.
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同時它也讓我現在如此的受歡迎
13:52
Everybody's got an opinion.
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人人都有自己的觀點
13:54
Going back to the beginning of our country --
316
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回顧我們國家的歷史初期
13:56
historically, defenses meant protection of the homeland.
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在歷史上，國防意味著保衛家園
14:00
Security has meant everything else.
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安全高於一切
14:03
Written into our constitution,
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這是寫進我們的憲法的
14:05
two different forces, two different functions.
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兩種不同的力量，兩種不同的功能
14:08
Raise an army when you need it,
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需要的時候，就養一支部隊
14:10
and maintain a navy for day-to-day connectivity.
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需要海軍就養一支海軍
14:15
A Department of War, a Department of Everything Else.
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一個戰爭部門，一個戰爭之外的部門
14:19
A big stick, a baton stick.
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一個是大棒，另一個卻是指揮棒
14:23
Can of whup ass,
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不但要把他們打倒
14:26
the networking force.
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而且要建立一個網絡來進行系統監管
14:28
In 1947 we merged these two things together
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1947年國防部把這兩件事情
14:30
in the Defense Department.
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融合到了一起
14:32
Our long-term rationale becomes,
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這就成為了我們的長期理論基礎
14:34
we're involved in a hair trigger stand off with the Soviets.
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我們捲入了一種與蘇聯一觸即發的境地
14:37
To attack America is to risk blowing up the world.
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進攻美國就是威脅全世界
14:40
We connected national security to international security
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我們將國家安全與世界安全聯繫起來
14:44
with about a seven minute time delay.
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其中只有七分鐘的延時
14:48
That's not our problem now.
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現在那已經不是我們的問題了
14:50
They can kill three million in Chicago tomorrow
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明天他們就能在芝加哥殺死三百萬人
14:52
and we don't go to the mattresses with nukes.
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而且我們沒有核武器床墊
14:55
That's the scary part.
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那才是最可怕的
14:57
The question is how do we reconnect American national security
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問題是我們如何再次將美國的安全與世界的安全聯繫起來
15:01
with global security to make the world a lot more comfortable,
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讓世界擁有安全保證，變得更美好
15:05
and to embed and contextualize our employment
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同時又讓我們在全球的部隊
15:08
of force around the planet?
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參與其中
15:13
What's happened since is that bifurcation I described.
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目前的情況，正是我所描述的一種
15:17
We talked about this going all the way back
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我們討論了這種
15:18
to the end of the Cold War.
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退回到冷戰末期的情況
15:20
Let's have a Department of War, and a Department of Something Else.
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我們需要一個戰爭部門，以及一個戰爭之外的部門
15:22
Some people say, "Hell, 9/11 did it for you."
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有人說，嘿，911已經為你完成了這個想法
15:26
Now we've got a home game and an away game.
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現在我們已經有了主場和客場之分
15:28
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
15:34
The Department of Homeland Security is a strategic feel good measure.
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建立本土安全部門是一個很好的戰略方法
15:38
It's going to be the Department of Agriculture for the 21st century.
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它將成為21世紀的農業部門
15:42
TSA -- thousands standing around.
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TSA的意思就是成千上萬人站在周圍
15:45
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
15:52
Just be grateful Robert Reed didn't shove that bomb up his ass.
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感謝羅伯特里德沒有將炸彈塞進屁股裡
15:55
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
16:09
Because we'd all be gay then.
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因為我們那時都將是同性戀
16:12
I supported the war in Iraq.
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我支持伊拉克戰爭
16:14
He was a bad guy with multiple priors.
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他是個有著多重前科的壞人
16:16
It's not like we had to find him
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我們是不可能在他殺人的現場
16:18
actually killing somebody live to arrest him.
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找到並逮捕他的
16:23
I knew we'd kick ass in the war with the Leviathan Force.
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我早就知道我們在用“巨輪之力”來戰鬥
16:25
I knew we'd have a hard time with what followed.
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我早就知道之後我們會經歷一段困難的時期
16:28
But I know this organization doesn't change until it experiences failure.
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但是我知道不經歷失敗，我們的組織是不會改變的
16:32
What do I mean by these two different forces?
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我提出這兩種力量是為了說明什麼呢？
16:35
This is the Hobbesian Force.
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這就是霍布斯的力量
16:37
I love this force. I don't want to see it go.
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我喜歡它，我不想沒有它
16:39
That plus nukes rules out great power war.
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我不願意只看到由核武器支配的大國戰爭
16:41
This is the military the rest of the world wants us to build.
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這才是世界需要我們建立的軍事力量
16:43
It's why I travel all over the world talking to foreign militaries.
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這就是為什麼我滿世界地跑，去與各國軍方交流
16:46
What does this mean?
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這意味著什麼呢？
16:49
It means you've got to stop pretending
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意味著你不能再假裝自己能都用同樣的
16:51
you can do these two very disparate skill sets with the same 19-year-old.
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19歲左右的人來完成兩件完全不同的事情
16:54
Switching back, morning, afternoon, evening,
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換回去，早、中、晚
16:57
morning, afternoon, evening.
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早、中、晚
16:59
Handing out aid, shooting back,
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給予援助，還擊
17:01
handing out aid, shooting back.
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給予援助，還擊
17:03
It's too much.
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太過分了
17:05
The 19-year-olds get tired from the switching, OK?
377
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那些19歲的傢伙會累的好不好
17:08
(Laughter)
378
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笑聲）
17:10
That force on the left, you can train a 19-year-old to do that.
379
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對於左邊的力量，你可以訓練一群19歲的人去做
17:13
That force on the right is more like a 40-year-old cop.
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但右邊的力量就必須要一群40歲左右的人去做了
17:16
You need the experience.
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你需要經驗
17:19
What does this mean in terms of operations?
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那怎麼行動呢？
17:23
The rule is going to be this.
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是這樣的
17:26
That Sys Admin force is the force that never comes home,
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“系統監管”部隊是從來不回家的部隊
17:29
does most of your work.
385
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但去完成了大部分任務
17:31
You break out that Leviathan Force only every so often.
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你頻繁地派出“巨輪之力”
17:34
But here's the promise you make to the American public,
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但是你要向美國民眾保證
17:36
to your own people, to the world.
388
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向你的人民、向世界保證
17:38
You break out that Leviathan Force,
389
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你派出了軍事力量
17:40
you promise, you guarantee that you're going to mount
390
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你保證，你會在隨後
17:43
one hell of a -- immediately -- follow-on Sys Admin effort.
391
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立刻跟上“系統監管”
17:47
Don't plan for the war unless you plan to win the peace.
392
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只能在你真的要實現和平的時候，才能進行戰爭！
17:49
(Applause)
393
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（掌聲）
17:55
Other differences. Leviathan
394
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另一個區別是軍事力量
17:57
traditional partners, they all look like the Brits
395
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傳統的伙伴，都像英國人
17:59
and their former colonies.
396
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以及他們的殖民地
18:01
(Laughter)
397
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（笑聲）
18:03
Including us, I would remind you.
398
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我還要提醒你，這也包括我們
18:05
The rest -- wider array of partners.
399
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剩下的，更廣泛的同盟者
18:07
International organizations, non-governmental organizations,
400
1062000
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有國際組織、非政府組織
18:09
private voluntary organizations, contractors.
401
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私人誌願者組織、承包商
18:11
You're not going to get away from that.
402
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你不能不管他們
18:13
Leviathan Force, it's all about joint operations between the military services.
403
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巨輪之力，都只是在軍事方面的聯合行動
18:16
We're done with that.
404
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我們已經做完了
18:18
What we need to do is inter-agency operations,
405
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我們需要去做的是在那些組織之間去開展行動
18:21
which frankly Condi Rice was in charge of.
406
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也就是賴斯管的那攤子事
18:23
And I'm amazed nobody asked her that question when she was confirmed.
407
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而我很奇怪為什麼沒人問她有關於那方面的問題
18:26
I call the Leviathan Force your dad's military.
408
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我把“巨輪之力”稱為男人的力量
18:29
I like them young, male, unmarried, slightly pissed off.
409
1084000
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我喜歡那些年輕、未婚、易怒的男孩子們
18:33
(Laughter)
410
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7000
（笑聲）
18:40
I call the Sys Admin Force your mom's military.
411
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我把“系統監管”稱為女人的力量
18:42
It's everything the man's military hates.
412
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關於它的每件事都是男人不屑於做的
18:44
Gender balanced much more, older, educated, married with children.
413
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這樣性別更平衡、更成熟、有更好的教育，就會有更好的結果
18:49
The force on the left, up or out.
414
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左邊的力量要么使用，要不就不用
18:52
The force on the right, in and out.
415
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而右邊的力量不可或缺
18:55
The force on the left respects Posse Comitatus restrictions
416
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左邊的力量要顧及到在調配美國國內的
18:58
on the use of force inside the U.S.
417
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臨時部隊時遇到的問題
19:00
The force on the right's going to obliterate it.
418
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而右邊的力量就會掃平一切問題
19:02
That's where the National Guard's going to be.
419
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那就是國民警衛隊要做的事情
19:03
The force on the left is never coming under the purview
420
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左邊的力量從來不需要考慮
19:05
of the International Criminal Court.
421
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是否違反了國際刑事法庭的規定
19:07
Sys Admin Force has to.
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但“系統監管”會考慮
19:11
Different definitions of network centricity.
423
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二者對網絡中心的定義是不同的
19:14
One takes down networks, one puts them up.
424
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一個是摧毀網絡，一個是建立網絡
19:17
And you've got to wage war here in such a way to facilitate that.
425
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你必須在以一種更好的方式來發動戰爭
19:21
Do we need a bigger budget?
426
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我們需要更多預算麼？
19:23
Do we need a draft to pull this off?
427
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我們需要預製一個計劃麼？
19:26
Absolutely not.
428
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完全不需要
19:30
I've been told by the Revolution of Military Affairs crowd for years,
429
1145000
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多年來倡導軍事變革的人們一種跟我講
19:34
we can do it faster, cheaper, smaller, just as lethal.
430
1149000
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我們能做得更快、花費更少、動員的規模更小，給出致命一擊
19:37
I say, "Great, I'm going to take the Sys Admin budget out of your hide."
431
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我說，“那太好了，我要把'系統監管'的錢從你的預算裡拿出來”
19:41
Here's the larger point.
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這才是重點
19:43
You're going to build the Sys Admin Force inside the U.S. Military first.
433
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你要首先在美國軍隊內部建立“系統監管”力量
19:45
But ultimately you're going to civilianize it, probably two thirds.
434
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但是最終你要將其中的大約三分之二平民化
19:49
Inter agency-ize it, internationalize it.
435
1164000
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將它推廣到各種組織之間，使其全球化
19:53
So yes, it begins inside the Pentagon,
436
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當然，這要從五角大樓開始
19:55
but over time it's going to cross that river.
437
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但是很快就會越過那條河
19:58
(Laughter)
438
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（笑聲）
20:01
I have been to the mountain top. I can see the future.
439
1176000
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我已經登頂了，我能看到希望
20:04
I may not live long enough to get you there, but it's going to happen.
440
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我可能不能活到那一天，但是事情已經開始進行了
20:07
We're going to have a Department of Something Else
441
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我們會擁有一個戰爭之外的部門
20:09
between war and peace.
442
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處理戰爭和和平之間的事務
20:11
Last slide.
443
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最後一頁
20:12
Who gets custody of the kids?
444
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那麼誰來照顧這些孩子們呢？
20:14
This is where the Marines in the audience get kind of tense.
445
1189000
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台下的海軍陸戰隊員們開始有點緊張了
20:16
(Laughter)
446
1191000
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（笑聲）
20:23
And this is when they think about beating the crap out of me
447
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這正是他們把我的話
20:25
after the talk.
448
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2000
當成廢話的時刻
20:27
(Laughter)
449
1202000
1000
（笑聲）
20:28
Read Max Boon.
450
1203000
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讀一下Max Boon
20:30
This is the history of the marines -- small wars, small arms.
451
1205000
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這是海軍陸戰隊的歷史——小型的戰爭，輕型的武器
20:32
The Marines are like my West Highland Terrier.
452
1207000
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海軍陸戰隊就像我的西高地白梗（一種狗）
20:34
They get up every morning, they want to dig a hole
453
1209000
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每天早上醒來，挖一個洞
20:36
and they want to kill something.
454
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然後殺死些什麼
20:38
(Laughter)
455
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（笑聲）
20:40
I don't want my Marines handing out aid.
456
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我不想我的海軍陸戰隊去給誰提供援助
20:43
I want them to be Marines.
457
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我只想讓他們當海軍陸戰隊
20:46
That's what keeps the Sys Admin Force from being a pussy force.
458
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這使得“系統監管”力量免於淪為一直柔弱的部隊
20:48
It keeps it from being the U.N.
459
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免於變成聯合國的部隊
20:50
You shoot at these people the Marines are going to come over and kill you.
460
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你若向他們射擊，那麼海軍陸戰隊員們會衝過來殺掉你
20:52
(Laughter)
461
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（笑聲）
20:55
(Applause)
462
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（掌聲）
20:58
Department of Navy, strategic subs go this way,
463
1233000
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海軍總部的戰略者們就要走這條路
21:01
surface combatants are over there,
464
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水面戰鬥部隊就在那裡
21:03
and the news is they may actually be that small.
465
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將來可能他們會變得很小
21:05
(Laughter)
466
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（笑聲）
21:08
I call it the Smart Dust Navy.
467
1243000
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我將那時的海軍稱之為“明智之塵”
21:10
I tell young officers, "You may command 500 ships in your career.
468
1245000
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我告訴年輕的官員，你可以在你一生之中指揮500艘艦船
21:12
Bad news is they may not have anybody on them."
469
1247000
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但是船上沒有人
21:17
Carriers go both ways because they're a swing asset.
470
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航母部隊兩條路線都要走，因為他們是不固定的
21:21
You'll see the pattern -- airborne, just like carriers.
471
1256000
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你會看到這樣的模式——海軍航空部隊，就像航母部隊一樣
21:24
Armor goes this way.
472
1259000
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裝甲部隊也會如此
21:26
Here's the dirty secret of the Air Force,
473
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下面就是關於空軍的噁心的秘密
21:27
you can win by bombing.
474
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你會用炸彈取勝
21:29
But you need lots of these guys on the ground to win the peace.
475
1264000
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但是在贏得和平的過程中你需要很多這些在陸上的傢伙
21:32
Shinseki was right with the argument.
476
1267000
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辛賽奇的觀點是對的
21:36
Air force, strategic airlift goes both ways.
477
1271000
4000
空軍，在戰略上的空運中也要兩條腿走路
21:40
Bombers, fighters go over here.
478
1275000
4000
轟炸機，戰鬥機也要這樣走
21:45
Special Operations Command down at Tampa.
479
1280000
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特殊行動指揮部在坦帕市
21:47
Trigger-pullers go this way.
480
1282000
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步兵也要如此
21:51
Civil Affairs, that bastard child, comes over here.
481
1286000
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民政部，那個混蛋小孩，也要到這裡來
21:54
Return to the Army.
482
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回到部隊中去
21:56
The point about the trigger-pullers and Special Operations Command.
483
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這是關於步兵和特別行動指揮部的
21:59
No off season, these guys are always active.
484
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不需要理由，這些傢伙總是很活躍
22:02
They drop in, do their business, disappear.
485
1297000
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他們介入、做事情，然後消失
22:08
See me now. Don't talk about it later.
486
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現在看我，以後可不要再討論這個問題了
22:10
(Laughter)
487
1305000
4000
（笑聲）
22:14
I was never here.
488
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我從沒來過這裡
22:16
(Laughter)
489
1311000
3000
（笑聲）
22:19
The world is my playground.
490
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2000
世界都是我的遊樂場
22:21
(Laughter)
491
1316000
4000
（笑聲）
22:25
I want to keep trigger-pullers trigger-happy.
492
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我只想讓步兵們開開心心地當地道的步兵
22:27
I want the rules to be as loose as possible.
493
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我想讓這些規則盡可能地變寬鬆
22:29
Because when the thing gets prevented in Chicago
494
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因為在芝加哥事情受阻了
22:31
with the three million dead
495
1326000
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有三百萬人都死了
22:33
that perverts our political system beyond all recognition,
496
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這就讓我們的政治部門很受打擊
22:35
these are the guys who are going to kill them first.
497
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有些人要先殺掉政治部門的人
22:38
So it's better off to have them make some mistakes along the way
498
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所以最好讓他們沿著這條路先犯點錯誤
22:40
than to see that.
499
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而不是只是眼睜睜地看著
22:42
Reserve component --
500
1337000
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保留部分——
22:44
National Guard reserves overwhelmingly Sys Admin.
501
1339000
3000
國民警衛隊保留佔絕對優勢的“系統監管”力量
22:47
How are you going to get them to work for this force?
502
1342000
2000
你怎樣才能讓他們為“系統監管”做事呢？
22:49
Most firemen in this country do it for free.
503
1344000
2000
美國的許多消防員都是免費為它做事的
22:51
This is not about money.
504
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這不是錢的問題
22:53
This is about being up front with these guys and gals.
505
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而是要讓這些孩子們重到最前面
22:58
Last point, intelligence community --
506
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最後一點，情報界——
23:00
the muscle and the defense agencies go this way.
507
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4000
政界和國防部都要參與
23:04
What should be the CIA, open, analytical, open source
508
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CIA要變的開放，去分析問題，公開資源
23:07
should come over here.
509
1362000
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要參與其中
23:09
The information you need to do this is not secret.
510
1364000
3000
你做事所需要的信息不是秘密
23:12
It's not secret.
511
1367000
2000
這不是秘密
23:14
Read that great piece in the New Yorker
512
1369000
1000
讀一下《紐約客》上的那一頁
23:15
about how our echo boomers, 19 to 25, over in Iraq
513
1370000
3000
關於那些嬰兒潮一代的子女們，大約19到25歲的那些在伊拉克的傢伙們
23:18
taught each other how to do Sys Admin work,
514
1373000
3000
是怎樣通過互聯網上的聊天室來相互學習
23:21
over the Internet in chat rooms.
515
1376000
2000
完成“系統監管”的工作的
23:23
They said, "Al Qaeda could be listening."
516
1378000
2000
他們說，“基地組織應當聽聽”
23:25
They said, "Well, Jesus, they already know this stuff."
517
1380000
2000
他們說，“其實，主啊，他們已經都知道啦”
23:27
(Laughter)
518
1382000
3000
（笑聲）
23:30
Take a gift in the left hand.
519
1385000
2000
左手拿一個禮物
23:32
These are the sunglasses that don't scare people, simple stuff.
520
1387000
4000
有不會嚇到別人的太陽鏡，簡單的東西
23:38
Censors and transparency, the overheads go in both directions.
521
1393000
3000
經費不僅要用於審查工作，也要用來使工作透明化
23:41
Thanks.
522
1396000
1000
謝謝大家
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Thomas Barnett - Military strategistStrategic planner Thomas Barnett has advised US leaders on national security since the end of the Cold War. His bold ideas about the future of warfare and the military are spelled out in his best-selling book The Pentagon's New Map.
Why you should listen
Thomas P.M. Barnett's bracing confidence and radical recommendations make him a powerful force shaping the future of the US military.
In his book The Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in the Twenty-First Century, Barnett draws on a fascinating combination of economic, political and cultural factors to predict and explain the nature of modern warfare. He presents concrete, world-changing strategies for transforming the US military -- adrift in the aftermath of the Cold War and 9/11 -- into a two-tiered power capable not only of winning battles, but of promoting and preserving international peace.
Thomas has been a senior adviser to military and civilian leaders in a range of offices, including the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, Central Command and Special Operations Command. During the tumultuous period from November 2001 to June 2003, he advised the Pentagon on transforming military capabilities to meet future threats. He led the five-year NewRuleSet.Project, which studied how globalization is transforming warfare. The study found, among other things, that when a country's per-capita income rises above ~$3,000, war becomes much less likely.
Barnett is unusually outspoken in a field cloaked in secrecy. His follow-up book is Blueprint for Action: A Future Worth Creating, and he writes regular columns for Esquire and the Knoxville News Sentinel. He also maintains a prolific blog, where he covers current global events.
Thomas Barnett | Speaker | TED.com