TED2009
Nandan Nilekani: Ideas for India's future
南丹•耐卡尼谈印度的未来
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南丹•耐卡尼，一位富于远见的首席执行官，是外包业务先驱Infosys公司的创始人。在这个演讲里，他阐述决定印度能否保持极速发展的四种观点
Nandan Nilekani - Technologist and visionary
Nandan Nilekani is the author of "Imagining India," a radical re-thinking of one of the world’s great economies. The co-founder of Infosys, he helped move India into the age of IT. Full bio
Nandan Nilekani is the author of "Imagining India," a radical re-thinking of one of the world’s great economies. The co-founder of Infosys, he helped move India into the age of IT. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Let me talk about India
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下面我来介绍一下印度
00:14
through the evolution of ideas.
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以及印度人们观念的演变
00:16
Now I believe this is an interesting way of looking at it
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我觉得这是个很有意思的角度
00:19
because in every society, especially an open democratic society,
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因为在每个社会中，尤其是开放的民主社会里
00:23
it's only when ideas take root that things change.
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只有观念树立之后，现实才能得以改变
00:26
Slowly ideas lead to ideology,
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观念逐渐演变成意识形态
00:28
lead to policies that lead to actions.
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然后出台相应政策，并最终付诸实践
00:31
In 1930 this country went through a Great Depression,
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1930年，美国经历大萧条时期
00:34
which led to all the ideas of the state and social security,
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产生了有关国家社会安全问题的各种观点
00:37
and all the other things that happened in Roosevelt's time.
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并促进了罗斯福执政期间其他事件的发生
00:40
In the 1980s we had the Reagan revolution, which lead to deregulation.
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20世纪80年代的里根革命，放松了政府管制
00:43
And today, after the global economic crisis,
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如今，全球经济危机的爆发
00:46
there was a whole new set of rules
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引发了新规则的产生
00:48
about how the state should intervene.
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重新探讨国家应该如何执政
00:50
So ideas change states.
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所以说，观念改变国家
00:52
And I looked at India and said,
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我们再来看印度
00:54
really there are four kinds of ideas
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四种观念对印度
00:56
which really make an impact on India.
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产生着巨大的影响
00:58
The first, to my mind,
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第一种，在我看来
01:00
is what I call as "the ideas that have arrived."
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是被我称为“已发生”的观念
01:03
These ideas have brought together something
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这些观念产生的影响
01:05
which has made India happen the way it is today.
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造就了今天的印度
01:08
The second set of ideas I call "ideas in progress."
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第二种观念，我把它们称为“进行中”的观念
01:11
Those are ideas which have been accepted
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这些观念已经被人们接受
01:14
but not implemented yet.
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但尚未付诸实践
01:16
The third set of ideas are what I call as
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第三种观念，我把它们称为
01:18
"ideas that we argue about" --
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“探讨中”的观念
01:20
those are ideas where we have a fight,
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我们对这些观念进行争论
01:22
an ideological battle about how to do things.
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争论在现实中是否应当实施这些观念
01:25
And the fourth thing, which I believe is most important, is
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第四种观念，也是我认为最重要的观念
01:28
"the ideas that we need to anticipate."
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是“我们有必要预先考虑到”的观念
01:30
Because when you are a developing country
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因为作为一个发展中国家
01:32
in the world where you can see the problems that other countries are having,
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我们看着世界其他国家正在面临的问题
01:36
you can actually anticipate
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由此可以事先预见到
01:38
what that did and do things very differently.
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问题将产生的后果 并调整工作方式来避免这些问题
01:41
Now in India's case I believe there are six ideas
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对印度来说，我认为有六种观念
01:44
which are responsible for where it has come today.
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造就了今天的印度
01:46
The first is really the notion of people.
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第一个是对“人民”这一概念的理解
01:50
In the '60s and '70s
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在六七十年代
01:52
we thought of people as a burden.
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“人民”对我们来说是一种压力
01:54
We thought of people as a liability.
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是一种负担
01:57
Today we talk of people as an asset.
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如今，“人民”对我们来说是一种资本
01:59
We talk of people as human capital.
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“人民”对我们来说是一种人力资源
02:02
And I believe this change in the mindset,
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我相信，这种心态上的转变
02:04
of looking at people as something of a burden
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这种“人民”由负担
02:06
to human capital,
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向人力资源的转变
02:08
has been one of the fundamental changes in the Indian mindset.
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可以说是印度人民思想上最根本的改变
02:11
And this change in thinking of human capital
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人力资源这一概念的转变
02:13
is linked to the fact
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体现在现实生活中
02:15
that India is going through a demographic dividend.
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就是印度正在享有的人口红利
02:18
As healthcare improves,
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随着医疗体系的完善
02:20
as infant mortality goes down,
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婴儿死亡率的下降
02:22
fertility rates start dropping. And India is experiencing that.
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生育率开始降低。印度所处的正是这一阶段
02:25
India is going to have
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印度会有很多
02:27
a lot of young people with a demographic dividend
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高人口红利的年轻人
02:30
for the next 30 years.
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出现在接下来的三十年里
02:32
What is unique about this demographic dividend
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这种人口红利的独特之处在于
02:34
is that India will be the only country in the world
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印度将成为世界上唯一一个
02:37
to have this demographic dividend.
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拥有人口红利的国家
02:39
In other words, it will be the only young country in an aging world.
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也就是说，印度将成为全球老龄化的趋势下唯一一个年轻国家
02:43
And this is very important. At the same time
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这是非常重要的一点。 另外
02:46
if you peel away the demographic dividend in India,
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我们剖析印度人口红利的特点
02:48
there are actually two demographic curves.
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就会发现存在着两个人口曲线
02:50
One is in the south and in the west of India,
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一个在印度南部和西部
02:53
which is already going to be fully expensed by 2015,
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2015年将达到最高峰
02:57
because in that part of the country, the fertility rate is
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因为该地区的生育率
03:00
almost equal to that of a West European country.
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已与西欧国家基本持平
03:03
Then there is the whole northern India,
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另外一个在印度北部
03:06
which is going to be the bulk of the future demographic dividend.
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它将成为未来人口红利的主体
03:09
But a demographic dividend is only as good
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但这些人口红利
03:12
as the investment in your human capital.
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就像人力资源的投资一样
03:15
Only if the people have education,
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只有当人们接受良好教育
03:17
they have good health, they have infrastructure,
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身体健康，基础设施完善
03:19
they have roads to go to work, they have lights to study at night --
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当他们上班道路畅通，夜晚学习灯火通明时
03:22
only in those cases can you really get the benefit
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只有在这些情况下，人们才能够受惠
03:25
of a demographic dividend.
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才能够从人口红利中受益
03:27
In other words, if you don't really invest in the human capital,
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换句话说，如果我们不对这些人口红利进行投入
03:30
the same demographic dividend
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同样的人口红利
03:32
can be a demographic disaster.
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有可能就变成人口祸患了
03:34
Therefore India is at a critical point
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因此，印度现在正处在关键的时候
03:36
where either it can leverage its demographic dividend
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假如不是推动促进其人口红利
03:39
or it can lead to a demographic disaster.
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就会走上人口祸患的道路
03:42
The second thing in India has been the change in
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第二点 印度改变了
03:44
the role of entrepreneurs.
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对于企业家的定义
03:46
When India got independence entrepreneurs were seen
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印度刚独立时 企业家被看作是
03:49
as a bad lot, as people who would exploit.
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一群剥削人民的败类
03:52
But today, after 60 years, because of the rise of entrepreneurship,
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但如今，60年后，随着创业者的涌现
03:55
entrepreneurs have become role models,
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企业家已成为现实中的楷模
03:57
and they are contributing hugely to the society.
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对社会做着巨大贡献
04:00
This change has contributed
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这一改变促进了
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to the vitality and the whole economy.
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整个经济体系的繁荣
04:06
The third big thing I believe that has changed India
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我认为改变印度的第三个观念
04:08
is our attitude towards the English language.
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是我们对英语语言所持态度的改变
04:11
English language was seen as a language of the imperialists.
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之前 英语被认为是帝国主义者的语言
04:14
But today, with globalization,
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但如今 全球化的背景下
04:16
with outsourcing, English has become a language of aspiration.
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外包业务增加 英语语言帮助人们实现抱负
04:20
This has made it something that everybody wants to learn.
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成为了大家蜂拥学习的一技之长
04:22
And the fact that we have English is now becoming
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英语也逐渐转变成
04:25
a huge strategic asset.
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我们巨大的战略性资本
04:27
The next thing is technology.
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还有科技
04:30
Forty years back, computers were seen
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40年前，电脑给我们的印象是
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as something which was forbidding, something which was intimidating,
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令人畏惧 充满威胁的
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something that reduced jobs.
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人们会因此而失去工作
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Today we live in a country
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今天 我们所在的国家
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which sells eight million mobile phones a month,
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每月销售八百万手机
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of which 90 percent of those mobile phones
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其中百分之九十
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are prepaid phones
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是预付费手机
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because people don't have credit history.
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因为人们没有信用记录
04:49
Forty percent of those prepaid phones
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预付费手机中的百分之四十
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are recharged at less than 20 cents at each recharge.
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每次充值少于20美分
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That is the scale at which
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科技已经被大规模接受
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technology has liberated and made it accessible.
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完全自由化，并被广泛应用
05:01
And therefore technology has gone
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因此 一开始
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from being seen as something forbidding
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被视作人类威胁并禁止使用的科技
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and intimidating to something that is empowering.
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逐渐赢得了人们的认可
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Twenty years back,
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20年前
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when there was a report on bank computerization,
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出台过一项有关银行计算机化的报告
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they didn't name the report as
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人们没有把这份报告命名为
05:15
a report on computers,
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关于电脑的报告
05:17
they call them as "ledger posting machines."
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他们把电脑称为过账机
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They didn't want the unions to believe that they were actually computers.
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他们不想让工会认为那是电脑
05:22
And when they wanted to have more advanced, more powerful computers
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后来他们想要使用更高级更强大的电脑时
05:26
they called them "advanced ledger posting machines."
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他们称其为高级过账机
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So we have come a long way from those days
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之后 我们经历了很多
05:31
where the telephone has become an instrument of empowerment,
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电话成为了一种赋权的工具
05:34
and really has changed the way Indians think of technology.
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并真正改变了印度人们看待科技的态度
05:38
And then I think the other point
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另一方面
05:40
is that Indians today are far more
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现在的印度人民前所未有地
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comfortable with globalization.
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适应着全球化的发展
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Again, after having lived for more than 200 years
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有200多年的时间 印度人民生活在
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under the East India Company and under imperial rule,
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东印度公司和帝国主义规则下
05:51
Indians had a very natural reaction towards globalization
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他们对全球化的正常反应
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believing it was a form of imperialism.
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就是认为那是一种帝国主义
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But today, as Indian companies go abroad,
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但现在 很多印度公司往国外发展
05:59
as Indians come and work all over the world,
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印度人们走出来 在世界各地工作
06:01
Indians have gained a lot more confidence
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他们增添了很多自信
06:03
and have realized that globalization is something they can participate in.
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并且意识到 他们可以参与到全球化的进程中
06:07
And the fact that the demographics are in our favor,
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我们在人口上有优势
06:10
because we are the only young country in an aging world,
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因为我们是世界老龄化趋势下唯一的年轻国家
06:12
makes globalization all the more attractive to Indians.
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这使全球化对印度人民来说有着更大的吸引力
06:15
And finally, India has had
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最后一点 印度正在经历
06:18
the deepening of its democracy.
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民主的不断深化
06:20
When democracy came to India 60 years back
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当60年前 民主来到印度时
06:22
it was an elite concept.
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那只是一小部分人的观点
06:24
It was a bunch of people who wanted to bring in democracy
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一小部分想把民主带进印度的人
06:27
because they wanted to bring in the idea of
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因为他们想为印度带来不一样的观点
06:29
universal voting and parliament and constitution and so forth.
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比如投票，议员，宪法等先进思想
06:33
But today democracy has become a bottom-up process
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但现在 民主已经成为了从下向上的进程
06:36
where everybody has realized
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每个人都意识到
06:38
the benefits of having a voice,
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拥有言论权的好处
06:40
the benefits of being in an open society.
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和开放社会的优势
06:43
And therefore democracy has become embedded.
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民主也就是这样深入人心的
06:45
I believe these six factors --
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我认为这六个观念
06:47
the rise of the notion of population as human capital,
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人力资源概念的产生
06:50
the rise of Indian entrepreneurs,
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印度企业家的发展
06:52
the rise of English as a language of aspiration,
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英语语言成为人们的一技之长
06:54
technology as something empowering,
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科技成为一种赋权的手段
06:56
globalization as a positive factor,
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全球化开始发挥积极作用
06:59
and the deepening of democracy -- has contributed
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以及民主的不断深化--这些都促成了
07:01
to why India is today growing
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印度今天的进步
07:03
at rates it has never seen before.
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今天这史无前例的快速发展
07:05
But having said that,
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话虽如此
07:07
then we come to what I call as ideas in progress.
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接下来我们来看“进行中”的观念
07:09
Those are the ideas where there is no argument in a society,
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这些观念在社会中已经没有异议
07:12
but you are not able to implement those things.
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但却无法得以实施
07:15
And really there are four things here.
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有四种这样的观念
07:17
One is the question of education.
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一是教育问题
07:19
For some reason, whatever reason -- lack of money,
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由于某些原因，不管什么样的原因，我们缺少资金
07:21
lack of priorities, because of religion having an older culture --
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缺少优先重点，因为宗教有着更悠久的文化影响
07:25
primary education was never given the focus it required.
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初等教育没有得到应有的重视
07:28
But now I believe it's reached a point
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但我觉得现在
07:30
where it has become very important.
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到了十分关键的时刻
07:32
Unfortunately the government schools don't function,
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我们很遗憾地看到 政府的公立学校不能正常运行
07:35
so children are going to private schools today.
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当下，孩子们只能去私立学校
07:37
Even in the slums of India
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即使在印度的贫民窟
07:39
more than 50 percent of urban kids are going into private schools.
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超过一半的城市孩子都去私立学校
07:42
So there is a big challenge in getting the schools to work.
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所以学校正常运行是一个不小的挑战
07:45
But having said that, there is an enormous desire
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即便如此，每个人都极其希望
07:47
among everybody, including the poor, to educate their children.
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穷人们也不例外，希望他们的孩子接受教育
07:50
So I believe primary education is an idea
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所以我认为 初等教育的观念
07:52
which is arrived but not yet implemented.
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已经深入人心 但还未得以实施
07:55
Similarly, infrastructure --
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类似地，基础设施建设也是如此
07:57
for a long time, infrastructure was not a priority.
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很长一段时间以来，基础设施建设都不予优先考虑
08:00
Those of you who have been to India have seen that.
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去过印度的人们都有所体会
08:02
It's certainly not like China.
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这和中国的情况是完全不同的
08:03
But today I believe finally infrastructure is something
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但现在 基础设施建设终于成为了
08:06
which is agreed upon and which people want to implement.
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人们达成一致并希望实施的观念
08:09
It is reflected in the political statements.
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这在官方声明中得以体现
08:12
20 years back the political slogan was, "Roti, kapada, makaan,"
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20年前的政治口号是"Roti,kapra,makan"
08:16
which meant, "Food, clothing and shelter."
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意思是“食物，衣服和住所”
08:19
And today's political slogan is, "Bijli, sadak, pani,"
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现在的政治口号是"Bijli,sarak,paani"
08:23
which means "Electricity, water and roads."
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意思是“电力，水利和公路”
08:25
And that is a change in the mindset
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这就是思想上的转变
08:27
where infrastructure is now accepted.
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基础设施建设得到了肯定
08:29
So I do believe this is an idea which has arrived,
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所以我相信 这个观念已经得到了大家的认同
08:31
but simply not implemented.
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只是还没有落实而已
08:33
The third thing is again cities.
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第三件事是城市
08:36
It's because Gandhi believed in villages
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因为甘地重视农村
08:38
and because the British ruled from the cities,
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而英国殖民者从城市统治
08:40
therefore Nehru thought of New Delhi as an un-Indian city.
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因此尼赫鲁并没有把新德里当作典型的印度城市
08:44
For a long time we have neglected our cities.
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长久以来 我们忽视城市建设
08:47
And that is reflected in the kinds of situations that you see.
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大家从现实生活中可以看出
08:50
But today, finally, after economic reforms,
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但现在 经历了经济改革
08:52
and economic growth,
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和经济增长
08:54
I think the notion that cities are engines
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城市拉动
08:56
of economic growth,
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经济增长
08:58
cities are engines of creativity,
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城市提高创造力
09:00
cities are engines of innovation,
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城市促进创新精神
09:02
have finally been accepted.
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这些理论最终被人们所接受
09:04
And I think now you're seeing the move towards improving our cities.
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我觉得大家现在可以看到我们城市建设的趋势
09:06
Again, an idea which is arrived, but not yet implemented.
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这同样也是 已被大家接受但还未实现的观念
09:10
The final thing is the notion of India as a single market --
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最后一个概念 印度是一个单一的市场
09:14
because when you didn't think of India as a market,
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因为当你不把印度当作一个市场的时候
09:16
you didn't really bother about a single market, because it didn't really matter.
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你并不关心它是否单一 因为这并无所谓
09:19
And therefore you had a situation
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那你就面临着这样一个局面
09:21
where every state had its own market for products.
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每个州有自己的产品市场
09:24
Every province had its own market for agriculture.
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每个省有自己的农业市场
09:27
Increasingly now the policies of
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现在的政策
09:29
taxation and infrastructure and all that,
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税收 基础设施建设及其他政策
09:31
are moving towards creating India as a single market.
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正在逐步将印度作为一个单一市场
09:34
So there is a form of internal globalization which is happening,
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所以国家内部现在也有着一个全球化的趋势
09:37
which is as important as external globalization.
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这和国家外部的全球化同等重要
09:40
These four factors I believe --
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这四个因素
09:42
the ones of primary education,
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初等教育
09:44
infrastructure, urbanization, and single market --
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基础设施建设，城市化和单一市场
09:47
in my view are ideas in India
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在我看来 是印度
09:49
which have been accepted, but not implemented.
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已经接受 但未实现的观念
09:53
Then we have what I believe are the ideas in conflict.
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接下来就是探讨中的观念
09:56
The ideas that we argue about.
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我们还为此进行争论的观念
09:59
These are the arguments we have which cause gridlock.
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所进行的争论常常陷入僵局
10:02
What are those ideas? One is, I think, are ideological issues.
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这些观念都有哪些呢？第一，我认为，是我们的意识形态
10:06
Because of the historical Indian background, in the caste system,
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由于印度种姓制度这一历史背景
10:10
and because of the fact that there have been many people
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也由于众多印度人民
10:12
who have been left out in the cold,
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一直被冷落
10:14
a lot of the politics is about how to make sure
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很多政治工作都是为了确保
10:16
that we'll address that.
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落实这一点
10:18
And it leads to reservations and other techniques.
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招致了不少异议和其他方法
10:21
It's also related to the way that we subsidize our people,
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这和我们贴补人民的方式也有关
10:23
and all the left and right arguments that we have.
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也和我们两边的观点有关
10:27
A lot of the Indian problems are related to the ideology
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印度很多问题都是关于意识形态的
10:30
of caste and other things.
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关于种姓制度和其他事情
10:32
This policy is causing gridlock.
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这项政策逐渐陷入僵局
10:34
This is one of the factors which needs to be resolved.
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这是需要解决问题之一
10:37
The second one is the labor policies that we have,
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第二点是我们的劳工政策
10:40
which make it so difficult for
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现政策下 企业家很难
10:42
entrepreneurs to create standardized jobs in companies,
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在公司创造标准化职位
10:46
that 93 percent of Indian labor
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因此 93%的印度劳工
10:48
is in the unorganized sector.
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都是处于无组织的状态
10:50
They have no benefits: they don't have social security;
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他们没有救济金 没有社会福利
10:53
they don't have pension; they don't have healthcare; none of those things.
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没有退休金 没有医疗保健 什么都没有
10:56
This needs to be fixed because unless you can bring these people
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这种现状必须改变 因为如果不能给人民
10:58
into the formal workforce,
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提供规范的劳动制度
11:00
you will end up creating a whole lot of people who are completely disenfranchised.
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最终将有大批人们受到剥削
11:04
Therefore we need to create a new set of labor laws,
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因此我们需要建立一套崭新的劳动法
11:07
which are not as onerous as they are today.
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摆脱今天劳动法的繁复
11:11
At the same time give a policy for a lot more people to be in the formal sector,
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同时发布政策将更多的人们带入正规的行业
11:15
and create the jobs for the millions of people that we need to create jobs for.
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并为上百万需要工作的人创造就业机会
11:18
The third thing is our higher education.
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第三件事是我们的高等教育
11:21
Indian higher education is completely regulated.
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印度的高等教育完全受到管制
11:24
It's very difficult to start a private university.
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个人很难创办大学
11:27
It's very difficult for a foreign university to come to India.
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国外的大学也很难来到印度
11:30
As a result of that our higher education
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结果我们的高等教育
11:32
is simply not keeping pace with India's demands.
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很自然地不能满足印度的需要
11:35
That is leading to a lot of problems which we need to address.
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由此带来的很多问题值得我们关注
11:39
But most important I believe
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但我相信 最重要的
11:41
are the ideas we need to anticipate.
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是我们需要预见的观念
11:43
Here India can look at what is happening in the west
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印度可以借鉴发生在西方的事
11:45
and elsewhere, and look at what needs to be done.
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发生在其他地方的事 并反思自己需要作出的努力
11:48
The first thing is, we're very fortunate
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首先 我们十分幸运
11:50
that technology is at a point
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现在的科技
11:52
where it is much more advanced
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更加发达
11:54
than when other countries had the development.
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超过了其他国家发展时的科技水平
11:56
So we can use technology for governance.
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所以我们可以利用科技来执政
11:58
We can use technology for direct benefits.
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我们可以利用科技直接从中获益
12:00
We can use technology for transparency, and many other things.
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我们可以利用科技增加透明度 及其他好处
12:03
The second thing is, the health issue.
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第二件事 是医疗保健
12:05
India has equally horrible
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印度人们有些严重的
12:07
health problems of the higher state of cardiac issue,
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健康问题 比如心脏病晚期
12:10
the higher state of diabetes, the higher state of obesity.
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糖尿病晚期 肥胖症晚期
12:13
So there is no point in replacing a set of poor country diseases
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所以我们不能简单地把一系列贫穷时期的疾病
12:16
with a set of rich country diseases.
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替换成一系列富足时期的疾病
12:19
Therefore we're to rethink the whole way we look at health.
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因此我们要重新审视我们看待医疗系统的方式
12:22
We really need to put in place a strategy
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我们需要一个战略
12:24
so that we don't go to the other extreme of health.
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这样我们才不至于走另一个极端
12:27
Similarly today in the West
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同样地 现在西方社会里
12:29
you're seeing the problem of entitlement --
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我们可以看到社会保障带来的问题
12:31
the cost of social security, the cost of Medicare, the cost of Medicaid.
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社会福利的花费 医疗保险的花费 医疗辅助计划的花费
12:35
Therefore when you are a young country,
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因此对于一个年轻国家来说
12:37
again you have a chance to put in place a modern pension system
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有机会从头建立一个现代退休金体系
12:40
so that you don't create entitlement problems as you grow old.
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这样在年老的时候 就不会出现津贴问题
12:44
And then again, India does not have the luxury
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另外 印度负担不起
12:47
of making its environment dirty,
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环境污染的后果
12:49
because it has to marry environment and development.
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因为环境和发展是密不可分的
12:53
Just to give an idea, the world has to stabilize
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给大家一个粗略的概念 世界每年消耗稳定在
12:56
at something like 20 gigatons per year.
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200亿吨
12:59
On a population of nine billion
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对于9亿人口来说
13:01
our average carbon emission will have to be about two tons per year.
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我们平均二氧化碳排放量每年达两吨
13:04
India is already at two tons per year.
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印度已经达到每年两吨
13:06
But if India grows at something like eight percent,
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但如果印度以8%的速度增长
13:09
income per year per person will go to 16 times by 2050.
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2050年人均年收入将是现在的16倍
13:13
So we're saying: income growing at 16 times and no growth in carbon.
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所以我们说 收入增长16倍而二氧化碳排放不增长
13:17
Therefore we will fundamentally rethink the way we look at the environment,
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这样我们可以从根本上 改变对环境的态度
13:20
the way we look at energy,
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对能源的态度
13:22
the way we create whole new paradigms of development.
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以及我们创造国家发展的崭新范例
13:26
Now why does this matter to you?
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为什么这对大家很重要呢？
13:29
Why does what's happening 10 thousand miles away matter to all of you?
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为什么发生在一万英里以外的事情对大家很重要呢？
13:33
Number one, this matters because
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第一，它重要是因为
13:36
this represents more than a billion people.
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它代表着超过十万人民
13:39
A billion people, 1/6th of the world population.
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十万人民 也就是世界总人口的六分之一
13:42
It matters because this is a democracy.
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它重要是因为这是民主的体现
13:45
And it is important to prove
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以此证明
13:47
that growth and democracy are not incompatible,
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增长和民主并不矛盾也是很重要的
13:50
that you can have a democracy, that you can have an open society,
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我们可以拥有民主 可以拥有开放的社会
13:53
and you can have growth.
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我们也可以拥有增长
13:55
It's important because if you solve these problems,
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它的重要性也在于如果这些问题得以解决
13:58
you can solve the problems of poverty in the world.
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世界的贫困问题也将迎刃而解
14:00
It's important because
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它的重要性还体现在
14:02
you need it to solve the world's environment problems.
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这也是解决世界环境问题的关键点
14:04
If we really want to come to a point,
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如果我们真的想有所作为
14:06
we really want to put a cap on our carbon emission,
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我们要真正设定二氧化碳排放的最高限度
14:08
we want to really lower the use of energy --
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我们要真正降低能源的使用
14:11
it has to be solved in countries like India.
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印度这样的国家需要解决此类问题
14:14
You know if you look at the development
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如果我们观察
14:16
in the West over 200 years,
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西方200年来的发展
14:18
the average growth may have been about two percent.
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其平均增长约为2%
14:21
Here we are talking about countries growing at eight to nine percent.
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这里我们讨论的 却是增长率为8%至9%的国家
14:24
And that makes a huge difference.
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这是有着很大区别的
14:26
When India was growing at about three, 3.5 percent
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当印度以3% 3.5%的速度增长
14:30
and the population was growing at two percent,
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人口以2%速度增长时
14:33
its per capita income was doubling every 45 years.
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其人均收入每45年翻一番
14:37
When the economic growth goes to eight percent
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当经济增长率上升到8%
14:40
and population growth drops to 1.5 percent,
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人口增长率下降到1.5%
14:43
then per capita income is doubling every nine years.
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人均收入每9年翻一番
14:46
In other words, you're certainly fast-forwarding this whole process
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换言之 我们的确在加速进行着整个过程
14:49
of a billion people going to prosperity.
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十亿人口逐步走上幸福的道路
14:52
And you must have a clear strategy
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我们必须有一个清晰的策略
14:54
which is important for India and important for the world.
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这对印度极为重要 对世界也极为重要
14:57
That is why I think all of you
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因为 我认为在座的你们
14:59
should be equally concerned with it as I am.
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也应该像我一样 关注这个问题
15:01
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢
15:03
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Nandan Nilekani - Technologist and visionaryNandan Nilekani is the author of "Imagining India," a radical re-thinking of one of the world’s great economies. The co-founder of Infosys, he helped move India into the age of IT.
Why you should listen
Nandan Nilekani co-founded Infosys, one of India's leading information technology companies, back in 1981. After serving as its president and then CEO, he's now joined the Indian government to help lead a massive new IT project: providing every Indian with a unique identity card. to concentrate on his next great endeavor: re-imagining India in the new millennium.
His book Imagining India asks big questions: How can India -- which made such leaps in the past two decades -- maintain its demographic advantage? How can democracy and education be promoted? How, in the midst of such growth, can the environment be protected for the next generations?
Nandan Nilekani | Speaker | TED.com