ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Srdja Popovic - Organizer
Srdja Popovic was a founder and leader of the student movement that brought down the Milosovic regime. Now, he helps other nonviolent movements learn and grow.

Why you should listen

Srdja Popovic was one of the founders and key organizers of the Serbian nonviolent resistance group Otpor! Otpor!’s campaign to unseat Serbian president Slobodan Milosovic found success in October 2000 when hundreds of thousands of protestors converged upon and took over the Serbian Parliament, effectively ending Milosevic’s rule. After the revolution, Popovic served a term as a member of the Serbian National Assembly 2000-2003.

In 2003, Popovic and other ex-Otpor! activists started the nonprofit educational institution the Centre for Applied Nonviolent Action and Strategies (CANVAS) (www.canvasopedia.org). CANVAS has worked with people from 37 countries, including Zimbabwe, Burma, Iran and Venezuela, spreading knowledge on nonviolent strategies and tactics that was used by the Serbian pro-democracy movement to other non-democratic countries. CANVAS has worked with the activists responsible for successful movements such as the Georgian “Rose Revolution” of 2003 and the Ukrainian “Orange Revolution” of 2004-2005. It also transferred knowledge to Lebanese activists in 2004 to address the crisis after the assassination of Prime Minister Harriri, and assisted participants in the Maldives’ revolution in 2008. Recently CANVAS has worked with April 6th, a key group in the Egyptian nonviolent uprising, as well as other groups from the Middle East.

CANVAS’ teachings are available in a documentary, "Bringing Down a Dictator," featuring Otpor strategies to topple Milosevic. Its manual "Nonviolent Struggle: 50 Crucial Points" was translated into 16 languages, including Farsi and Arabic, and was downloaded 17,000 times from Iran during that country's 2009 protests.

More profile about the speaker
Srdja Popovic | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxKrakow

Srdja Popovic: How to topple a dictator

Srdja Popovic: 如何撥亂反正

Filmed:
369,967 views

二零一一年是人民抗拒力量很大的一年,由阿拉伯之春開始擴散到世界的不同地方。 這個抗爭力是怎樣成功的? Srdja Popovic (他是反暴力運動的領導,他在 2000 年讓塞爾維亞的 Milosevic 下臺) 一一介紹他的運動計劃﹐技巧﹐工具 -- 包括反暴力的伎倆到幽默。(攝於 TEDxKrakow)
- Organizer
Srdja Popovic was a founder and leader of the student movement that brought down the Milosovic regime. Now, he helps other nonviolent movements learn and grow. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:13
Good afternoon下午. I am proud驕傲 to be here at TEDxKrakowTEDxKrakow.
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午安,我很榮幸能來到TEDx Krakow(克拉科夫,波蘭)。
00:16
I'll try to speak說話 a little bit today今天 about a phenomenon現象
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今天我會提到一種現象,
00:19
which哪一個 can and is actually其實 changing改變 the world世界,
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一種能夠亦已經在改變世界的現象,
00:22
and whose誰的 name名稱 is people power功率.
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這個現象就是人民的力量。
00:24
I'll start開始 with the anecdote軼事, or for those of you
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讓我先來與你們分享一段故事,
00:27
who are Monty蒙蒂 Python蟒蛇 lovers情侶, a Monty蒙蒂 Python蟒蛇 type類型 of sketch草圖.
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如果你們是蒙提·派森(英國喜劇團體)的愛好者的話,
這是一個蒙提·派森式的小品。
00:30
Here it is. It is December十二月 15, 2010.
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故事是這樣的。2010年12月15日
00:34
Somebody gives you a bet賭注. You will look at a crystal水晶 ball
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有人和你打賭。你會在水晶球裡,
00:37
and you will see the future未來. The future未來 will be accurate準確.
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看到未來,而且是準確的未來。
00:40
But you need to share分享 it with the world世界. Okay?
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但是你必須把你所看到的公諸於眾。你願意嗎?
00:43
Curiosity好奇心 killed殺害 the cat. You take the bet賭注.
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好奇心會殺死一隻貓。你接受了挑戰。
00:45
You look at the crystal水晶 ball. One hour小時 later後來,
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你往水晶球裡看了進去。一個小時後,
00:48
you are sitting坐在 in a building建造 on the national國民 TV電視
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你坐在一棟全國性電視台的大樓裡,
00:51
in a talkshow脫口秀, and you tell the story故事.
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在脱口秀中接受訪問,講述你在水晶球裡看到的事情。
00:53
"Before the end結束 of 2011, Ben Ali阿里 and Mubarak穆巴拉克
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“2011年結束之前,本·阿里(突尼西亞前總統)、
穆巴拉克(埃及前總理)、
00:58
and Gaddafi卡扎菲 will be down and prosecuted起訴.
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和格達費(利比亞前總理) 都會垮台並被起訴。
01:02
Saleh薩利赫 of Yemen也門 and Assad阿薩德 of Syria敘利亞
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葉門的薩利赫和敘利亞的阿薩德
01:05
would be either challenged挑戰 or already已經 on their knees膝蓋.
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會受到挑戰或屈服於壓力。
01:08
Osama烏薩馬 bin箱子 Laden拉登 will be dead,
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奧薩瑪賓拉登會死亡,
01:10
and Ratko拉特科· Mladic姆拉迪奇 will be in the Hague海牙."
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然後拉特科·姆拉迪奇會在荷蘭哈牙受審 (國際戰爭罪)“。
01:13
Now, the anchor watches手錶 you with a strange奇怪 gaze凝視 on his face面對,
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現在,節目主持人用奇怪的眼神看著你,
01:16
and then on the top最佳 of it you add,
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接著,你繼續把故事說下去,
01:18
"And thousands數千 of the young年輕 people from Athens雅典, Madrid馬德里
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" 然後在雅典、馬德里還有紐約,
01:21
and New York紐約 will demonstrate演示 for social社會 justice正義,
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成千上萬的年輕人為了社會的公理而走上街頭,
01:24
claiming自稱 that they are inspired啟發 with Arabs阿拉伯人."
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宣稱他們是受到了阿拉伯世界的鼓舞。"
01:27
Next下一個 thing you know, two guys in white白色 appear出現.
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接下來你所能記得的,是兩個穿著白色衣服的人出現。
01:30
They give you the strange奇怪 t-shirtT恤衫,
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他們給你一件奇怪的T恤衫,
01:32
take you to the nearest最近的 mental心理 institution機構.
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把你帶到最近的一間心理治療中心。
01:34
So I would like to speak說話 a little bit about the phenomenon現象
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所以我想講的這個現象,
01:37
which哪一個 is behind背後 what already已經 seems似乎 to be the very bad year
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對於那些壞蛋來說這似乎是個走衰運的一年,
01:41
for bad guys, and this phenomenon現象 is called people power功率.
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這個現象就是人民的力量。
01:46
Well, people power功率 has been there for a while.
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事實上,人民的力量已經存在好一陣子了。
01:48
It helped幫助 Gandhi甘地 kick the Brits英國人 from India印度.
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它幫助了甘地把英國人趕出印度。
01:51
It helped幫助 Martin馬丁 Luther路德 King國王 win贏得 a historic歷史性 racial種族 struggle鬥爭.
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它幫助馬丁·路德·金恩贏了一場歷史悠久的種族抗爭。
01:55
It helped幫助 local本地 Lech萊赫 Walesa瓦文薩 to kick out
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它幫助了萊赫·華勒沙
01:58
one million百萬 Soviet蘇聯 troops軍隊 from Poland波蘭
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將蘇聯的百萬大軍逐出波蘭,
02:01
and beginning開始 the end結束 of the Soviet蘇聯 Union聯盟 as we know it.
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並引發了我們所知的蘇聯解體。
02:04
So what's new in it? What seems似乎 to be very new,
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這裡頭有甚麼我們不知道的呢?
02:08
which哪一個 is the idea理念 I would like to share分享 with you today今天,
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我今天要和各位分享的是一個嶄新的想法,
02:11
that there is a set of rules規則 and skills技能 which哪一個 can be learned學到了
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有一套可以學習並傳授的規則和技巧
02:15
and taught in order訂購 to perform演出 successful成功 nonviolent非暴力 struggle鬥爭.
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可以用來進行非暴力式的抗爭。
02:19
If this is true真正, we can help these movements運動.
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如果這是真的的話,我們可以對這些運動提供幫助。
02:23
Well, first one, analytic解析 skills技能.
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首先,分析技能。
02:26
I'll try where it all started開始 in the Middle中間 East,
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這一切都是從中東開始的,
02:29
and for so many許多 years年份 we were living活的 with completely全然 the wrong錯誤
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這麼多年以來,我們平常對於中東的認知
02:32
perception知覺 of the Middle中間 East.
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有著全然的錯誤。
02:35
It was looking like the frozen凍結的 region地區, literally按照字面 a refrigerator冰箱,
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那裏從前看起來像是一塊不會改變的地區,
打個比方,就像是冰箱一樣,
02:38
and there are only two types類型 of meals there:
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然而這冰箱裡只有兩種食物 :
02:40
steak牛扒, which哪一個 stands站立 for a Mubarak穆巴拉克, Ben Ali-type阿里型 of
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第一種是牛排,代表的是 穆巴拉克 和 本·阿里 這類
02:44
military軍事 police警察 dictatorship專政, or a potato土豆,
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軍事政權獨裁者 ; 第二種是馬鈴薯,
02:48
which哪一個 stands站立 for Tehran德黑蘭 types類型 of theocracies神權.
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代表的是伊朗德黑蘭這類的神權政治。
02:51
And everybody每個人 was amazed吃驚 when the refrigerator冰箱 opened打開
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當這個冰箱被打開來的時候,
每個人都為此感到驚訝,
02:54
and millions百萬 of young年輕, mainly主要 secular世俗 people step out
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接著數百萬來自平民階層的年輕人,
為了做出改變而站了出來
02:57
to do the change更改. Guess猜測 what? They didn't watch the demographics人口統計學.
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各位知道嗎? 他們忽略了人口統計的相關數據。
03:02
What is the average平均 age年齡 of Egyptians埃及人? 24.
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埃及人的平均年齡是多少? 24歲
03:05
How long was Mubarak穆巴拉克 in power功率? 31.
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穆巴拉克在位時間有多久? 31年
03:07
So this system系統: just obsolete過時的. They expired過期,
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這代表這是一個老舊的政權。它們已經過期了。
03:11
and young年輕 people of the Arab阿拉伯 World世界 have awakened驚醒
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然而阿拉伯世界的年輕人在一夜之間覺醒了,
03:13
one morning早上 and understood了解 that power功率 lies in their hands.
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並了解到實質的力量其實掌握在他們手中。
03:18
The rest休息 is the year in front面前 of us. And guess猜測 what?
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接下來的事正在我們眼前發生中。接著發生了甚麼事?
03:21
The same相同 Generation Epsilon小量 with their rules規則,
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同一群 Epsilon 世代的人,擁有他們自己的規則,
(Generation Epsilon 阿拉伯世界 18~29 歲反抗獨裁政權的人)
03:23
with their tools工具, with their games遊戲 and with their language語言,
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他們自己的工具,他們自己的遊戲和語言,
03:26
which哪一個 sounds聲音 a little bit strange奇怪 to me. I am 38 now.
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這對已經38歲的我來說有一點的新奇。
03:30
And can you look at the age年齡 of the people on the streets街道 of Europe歐洲?
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你可以去看看那些在歐洲上街頭的群眾的年齡嗎?
03:34
It seems似乎 that Generation Epsilon小量 is coming未來.
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看起來 Epsilon 世代已經來臨了。
03:38
Now let me set another另一個 example.
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現在讓我再給大家另一個例子。
03:41
I'm meeting會議 different不同 people throughout始終 the world世界,
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我現在正在和來自世界各地的人會面,
03:43
and they are, you know, academics學者 and professors教授
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他們是那些,你知道的,學術人士和教授
03:46
and doctors醫生, and they will always talk conditions條件.
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還有醫生們,他們總是說各式各樣的環境限制
03:49
They will say, "People power功率 will work only if the regime政權 is not too oppressive壓抑."
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他們會說 " 人民的力量只有在政權沒那麼嚴厲時才會發揮功效 "
03:53
They will say, "People power功率 will work if the annual全年 income收入
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他們會說 " 人民的力量只有在
03:56
of the country國家 is between之間 X and Z."
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國家的年收入在逆差的時候才會發生"
03:58
They will say, "People power功率 will work only if there is a foreign國外 pressure壓力."
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他們會說 " 人民的力量只有在有外國力量介入時才會出現 "
04:02
They will say, "People power功率 will work only if there is no oil."
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他們會說 " 人民的力量只有在石油短缺時才有用 "
04:05
And, I mean, there is a set of conditions條件.
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我的意思是,他們有一大堆的限制。
04:07
Well, the news新聞 here is that your skills技能 [that you] bring帶來 in the conflict衝突
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我要給你們的消息是,你們在抗爭中的使用的技能
04:12
seem似乎 to be more important重要 than the conditions條件,
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似乎比這些限制條件更為重要,
04:15
namely亦即 skills技能 of unity統一, planning規劃,
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換句話說,技能像是團結、規劃
04:18
and maintaining維持 nonviolent非暴力 discipline學科.
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和維持非暴力的紀律。
04:19
Let me give you the example.
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讓我給你們一些範例。
04:21
I am coming未來 from a country國家 called Serbia塞爾維亞.
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我來自塞爾維亞。
04:23
It took us 10 years年份 to unite團結 18 opposition反對 party派對 leaders領導者,
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在我們國家,我們花了 10 年的時間讓
18 個擁有各自雄心壯志的黨派領袖結合起來,
04:28
with their big egos自我, behind背後 one single candidate候選人
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讓他們同時站在同一個候選人的背後,
04:31
against反對 Balkan巴爾幹 dictator獨裁者 Slobodan斯洛博丹 Milosevic米洛舍維奇.
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來對抗巴爾幹的獨裁者 Slobodan Milosevic。
04:34
Guess猜測 what? That was the day of his defeat打敗.
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接著呢? 那一天就是他被擊倒的日子。
04:36
You look at the Egyptians埃及人, they fire on Tahrir塔利爾 Square廣場,
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你們看看埃及人們,他們在解放廣場上放火,
04:39
they get rid擺脫 of their individual個人 symbols符號.
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他們擺脫個體的象徵
04:41
They appear出現 on the street only with the flag of Egypt埃及.
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他們上街時只帶著埃及的國旗。
04:44
I will give you a counter-example反例.
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我在給你們一個相反的例子。
04:47
You see nine presidential總統 candidates候選人 running賽跑 against反對 Lukashenko盧卡申科.
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在白俄羅斯,九個候選人同時去和 Lukashenko 做競爭。
04:50
You will know the outcome結果.
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結果你們應該猜到了。
04:51
So unity統一 is a big thing, and this can be achieved實現.
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所以,團結是一件很重要的事,而且是一件可以達成的事。
04:55
Same相同 with planning規劃. Somebody has lied說謊 to you
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規劃也是一樣。有人對你撒謊說過關於
04:57
about the successful成功 and spontaneous自發 nonviolent非暴力 revolution革命?
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成功且自發的非暴力革命嗎?
05:01
That thing doesn't exist存在 in the world世界.
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這種事壓根不存在這世上。
05:04
Whenever每當 you see young年輕 people in front面前 of the road
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每當你看到有年輕人在隊伍最前面,
05:06
trying to fraternize友好往來 with the police警察 or military軍事,
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試圖對軍警釋出善意,
05:09
somebody was thinking思維 about it before.
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這一定是有人深思熟慮所導致的行為。
05:11
Now, at the end結束, nonviolent非暴力 discipline學科,
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最後一個,非暴力的紀律,
05:14
and this is probably大概 the game-changer改變遊戲規則.
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而這可能是改變整場遊戲的關鍵。
05:16
If you maintain保持 nonviolent非暴力 discipline學科, you will exclusively win贏得.
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如果你能夠維持非暴力的紀律,
你就會獲得完全的勝利。
05:20
You have 100,000 people in a nonviolent非暴力 march遊行,
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假熱你有十萬個人正在進行非暴力性的遊行
05:23
and one idiot白痴 or agent代理人 provocateur挑釁者 is throwing投擲 stones石頭,
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然後有個白癡或是敵方的臥底扔出了一個石頭,
05:26
guess猜測 what takes all the cameras相機? That one guy.
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猜猜看所有媒體的焦點會跑到哪?
就只會在那一個人身上。
05:28
One single act法案 of violence暴力 can literally按照字面
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一個小小的暴力行為
05:31
destroy破壞 your movement運動.
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可以破壞掉一整個運動。
05:33
Now let me move移動 to another另一個 place地點.
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現在把場景轉換一下。
05:36
It's selection選擇 of strategies策略 and tactics策略.
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這是戰術和戰略的抉擇。
05:37
There are certain某些 rules規則 in nonviolent非暴力 struggle鬥爭 you may可能 follow跟隨.
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非暴力性的抗爭有既有的規則你應該去遵守。
05:41
First, you start開始 small.
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首先,先從簡單的開手。
05:43
Second第二, you pick the battles戰鬥 you can win贏得.
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第二步,你挑選一個你可以贏的戰鬥。
05:46
It's only 200 of us in this room房間.
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我們在這個房間只有200人。
05:49
We won't慣於 call for the March遊行 of Millions百萬.
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我們不會號稱這是個百萬人的大遊行。
05:51
But what if we organize組織 spraying graffiti塗鴉 throughout始終 the night
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但如果我們有組織性的在夜晚去做街頭塗鴉
05:54
all over Krakow克拉科夫 city? The city will know.
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而目標是整個 Krakow city (波蘭第二大城) 呢?
整個城市都會收到訊息。
05:57
So we pick the tactics策略 which哪一個 accommodates容納 to the event事件,
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所以我們必須挑選適合這樣事件的戰略,
06:00
especially特別 this thing we call the small tactics策略 of dispersion分散.
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特別是這種我們稱為分散兵力的小型戰略。
06:04
They're very useful有用 in a violent暴力 oppression壓迫.
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它們在暴力鎮壓中非常有用。
06:08
We are actually其實 witnessing見證 the picture圖片
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事實上我們正在目睹一個
06:10
of one of the best最好 tactics策略 ever used.
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有史以來最好的戰略之一。
06:13
It was on Tahrir塔利爾 Square廣場, where the international國際 community社區
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在埃及解放廣場上,國際性團體
06:16
was constantly經常 frightened受驚 that the Islamists伊斯蘭教徒
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一直都很害怕伊斯蘭會主導這場革命
06:19
will overtake超過 the revolution革命. Well, they've他們已經 organized有組織的
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事實上,它們組織了基督徒
06:22
Christians基督徒 protecting保護 Muslims穆斯林, who are there praying祈禱,
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去保護那些正在祈禱的穆斯林,
06:25
Coptic科普特 wedding婚禮 cheered歡呼 by thousands數千 of Muslims穆斯林.
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去保護那些正在為科普特婚禮歡呼的穆斯林。
06:28
The world世界 has just changed the picture圖片,
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世界的樣貌正在改變,
06:30
but somebody was thinking思維 about this previously先前.
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而這是因為有人在事前有縝密的規劃。
06:33
So there are so many許多 things you can do instead代替 of
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所以,有很多的方法可以當作替代方案
06:35
getting得到 into one place地點, shouting叫喊 and
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讓你不用跑到某個地方,對著維安人員
06:38
showing展示 off in front面前 of the security安全 forces軍隊.
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大吼或是做些引人注目的動作。
06:42
Now there is also another另一個 very important重要 dynamic動態,
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這裡還有另一種非常重要的動能,
06:45
and this is a dynamic動態 normally一般 analytics分析 don't see.
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而這種動能是一般的分析看不見的。
06:49
This is dynamics動力學 between之間 fear恐懼 and apathy暮氣 on one side
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這是一個介於恐懼、冷漠
06:52
and enthusiasm熱情 and humor幽默 on another另一個 side.
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和熱情、幽默之間的一種動能
06:55
So it works作品 like in a video視頻 game遊戲.
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他運作的方式和電玩遊戲很像。
06:57
You have a fear恐懼 high, you have status狀態 quo現狀.
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如果你的恐懼值較高的話,
你會維持現狀不動。
06:59
You have enthusiasm熱情 higher更高, you see fear恐懼 starting開始 to melt熔化.
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如果你的熱情值開始攀高,
你的恐懼會開始消散。
07:03
Day two, you see people running賽跑 towards police警察
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第二天,人群會開始向警察跑過去
07:06
instead代替 of from the police警察.
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而不是從警察那裏跑開。
07:08
In Egypt埃及, you can tell that something is happening事件 there.
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在埃及,你可以看到有些事情正在發生中
07:11
And then it's about humor幽默. Humor幽默 is such這樣 a powerful強大
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接下來是關於幽默。幽默是一個強大的關鍵
07:15
game-changer改變遊戲規則, and of course課程 it was very big in Poland波蘭.
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它可以改變整個局勢,
當然它對於波蘭來說是非常的重要。
07:17
And you know, we were just a small group of crazy students學生們
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你們知道嗎,當我們做出這策劃時,
07:20
in Serbia塞爾維亞 when we made製作 this big skit小品.
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我們只是在塞爾維亞的一小群瘋瘋癲癲的學生。
07:24
We put the big petrol汽油 barrel with a
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我們在大型的汽油桶上面
07:27
portrait肖像 picture圖片 of Mr先生. President主席 on it
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放了總統先生的肖像,
07:29
in the middle中間 of the Main主要 Street. There was a hole on the top最佳
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並且將它放在主要幹道的中央。
桶子的上面有一個洞,
07:32
so you could literally按照字面 come, put a coin硬幣 in,
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你可以把銅板丟進去,
07:35
get a baseball棒球 bat蝙蝠, and powPOW, hit擊中 his face面對.
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然後拿起球棒往他的臉尻下去,
07:38
Sounds聲音 loud. And within the minutes分鐘, we were sitting坐在
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然後發出巨大的聲響。當時我們坐在附近的咖啡廳,
07:42
in a nearby附近 cafe咖啡店 having coffee咖啡, and there was
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喝著咖啡,並且在幾分鐘之內,
07:44
a queue隊列 of people waiting等候 to do this lovely可愛 thing.
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聚集了一排的人等著要來試試這項運動。
07:48
Well, that's just the beginning開始 of the show顯示.
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而這只是整場秀的開幕。
07:50
The real真實 show顯示 starts啟動 when the police警察 appears出現.
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真正的好戲從警察的出現開始。
07:53
What will they do? Arrest逮捕 us? We are nowhere無處 to be seen看到.
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他們要怎麼做? 逮捕我們?
我們在他們看不見的地方。
07:56
We are three blocks away observing觀察 it from our espresso濃咖啡 bar酒吧.
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我們在三個街區之外的咖啡吧檯觀察著一切。
08:00
Arrest逮捕 the shoppers消費者 with kids孩子? Doesn't make sense.
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逮捕那些帶著小孩的消費者?
這一點道理都沒有。
08:03
Of course課程, you could bet賭注 they have doneDONE the most stupid thing:
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當然,你可以打賭他們會做出最笨的決定:
08:06
They arrested被捕 the barrel. And now the picture圖片
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它們逮捕了汽油桶。而如今,
08:09
of the smashed被砸 face面對 on the barrel with the policeman警察
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這個上面有個被打爛的臉的汽油桶
08:12
dragging拖延 them to the police警察 car汽車, that was the best最好 day
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被警察拖上警車。那一天
08:15
for the photographers攝影師 from newspapers報紙 that they ever will have.
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對報社的攝影師來說
是再也不會有更好的日子。
08:18
So, I mean, these are the things you can do,
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所以我的意思是,這些是你可以做的事,
08:20
and you can always use the humor幽默.
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而你永遠可以善用你的幽默。
08:22
There is also one big thing about the humor幽默: It really hurts傷害,
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對幽默來說只有一件重要的事 :
它們的殺傷力真的很大,
08:25
because these guys really are taking服用 themselves他們自己 too seriously認真地.
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因為那些人總是把他們自己看得太重。
08:30
When you start開始 to mock嘲笑 them, it hurts傷害.
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當你開始取笑他們時, 他們會因此受傷。
08:32
Now, everybody每個人 is talking about His Majesty威嚴, the Internet互聯網,
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現在每個人都在討論他們的神主牌,。網際網路。
08:36
and it is also a very useful有用 skill技能, but don't rush
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這也是一項很有用個技能,
但不要急著把標籤貼上
08:40
to label標籤 things like FacebookFacebook的 Revolution革命, Twitter推特 Revolution革命.
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像是Facebook 革命 , Twitter革命。
08:44
Don't mix混合 tools工具 with the substance物質.
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不要把工具和實質意義作了混淆。
08:47
It is true真正 that the Internet互聯網 and new media媒體 are very useful有用
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實際上,網際網路和新興媒體真的非常有用,
08:51
in making製造 things faster更快 and cheaper便宜.
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它讓事情做起來更快更便宜。
08:53
They make it also a bit safer更安全 for the participants參與者
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它也讓那些參與者能夠更安全,
08:56
because they give the part部分 of anonymity匿名.
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因為它們提供了隱匿性。
08:59
We are watching觀看 the great example of something else其他 the Internet互聯網 can do.
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我們正在看的是一個很棒的範例,
他展示出網路的另一項功能。
09:02
It can put the price價錢 tag標籤 of state-sponsored國家資助 violence暴力 over nonviolent非暴力 protesters抗議者.
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他可以將那些因為被領公費的暴行者
弄受傷的非暴力抗爭者貼上標籤
09:07
This is a famous著名 group, We are all Khaled哈立德 Said,
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這是一個很有名的團體, We are all Khaled Said
(Khaled Said 是個被埃及警察赤手空拳打到死的年輕人)
09:10
made製作 by Wael瓦埃勒 GhonimGhonim in Egypt埃及 and his friend朋友.
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是由Wael Ghonim和他的朋友在埃及組成的。
09:12
This is the mutilated肢解 face面對 of the guy who was beaten毆打 by the police警察.
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這是那個被警察揍的年輕人分解的臉。
09:16
This is how he became成為 the public上市, and this is what probably大概
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這就是他如何變成公眾議題,
09:19
became成為 the straw稻草 which哪一個 broke打破 the camel's駱駝 back.
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而這也可能是壓垮駱駝的最後一根稻草。
09:22
But here is also the bad news新聞.
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但這同時也有壞消息。
09:24
The nonviolent非暴力 struggle鬥爭 is won韓元 in the real真實 world世界,
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非暴力型抗爭在現實世界中獲得了勝利,
09:26
in the streets街道. You will never change更改 your society社會
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就在外頭的街道上。但你絕不能夠改變你的社會
09:30
towards democracy民主 or economics經濟學
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轉向民主或是改變經濟
09:33
if you sit down and click點擊.
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假如你只是坐在電腦前面按讚而已。
09:35
There are risks風險 to be taken採取 and there are living活的 people
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有的風險是要去承擔,而在外頭有真正的活人
09:38
who are winning勝利 the struggle鬥爭.
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他們正在贏得這場抗爭。
09:40
Well, million百萬 dollar美元 question: What will happen發生 in the Arab阿拉伯 World世界?
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百萬獎金大猜謎 : 阿拉伯世界會發生什麼事呢?
09:44
And though雖然 young年輕 people from the Arab阿拉伯 World世界
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雖然阿拉伯世界的年輕人
09:46
were pretty漂亮 successful成功 in bringing使 down three dictators獨裁者,
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很成功的把三位獨裁者拉下台了,
09:49
shaking發抖 the region地區, kind of persuading說服 clever聰明 kings國王
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撼動他們的政權,也因此動搖了
09:54
from Jordan約旦 and Morocco摩洛哥 doing substantial大量的 reforms改革,
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識時務的約旦和摩洛哥國王做了實質性的政治重組,
09:57
it is yet然而 to be seen看到 what will be the outcome結果,
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但最後的結果還有待觀察,
10:01
whether是否 the Egyptians埃及人 and Tunisians突尼斯人 will make it through通過 the transition過渡
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不論埃及人或突尼西亞人會咬牙度過轉換期,
10:04
or this will end結束 in bloody血腥 ethnic民族 and religious宗教 conflict衝突,
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或是最後變成了血腥的種族和聰轎衝突,
10:08
whether是否 the Syrians敘利亞人 will maintain保持 nonviolent非暴力 discipline學科,
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不論敘利亞人是否會維持非暴力的紀律,
10:12
faced面對 with the brutal野蠻 daily日常 violence暴力
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當他們面對的是一天天殘酷的暴力,
10:16
which哪一個 kills殺死 thousands數千 already已經,
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而這已經讓他們造成了上千人的傷亡,
10:18
or they will slip into violent暴力 struggle鬥爭
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或是他們會順勢的變成暴力抗爭
10:20
and make ugly醜陋 civil國內 war戰爭.
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並因此引爆內戰。
10:23
Will these revolutions革命 be whole整個 like through通過 the transitions過渡
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這場革命在他轉向民主的路上
10:27
to democracy民主 or be overtaken超越 by military軍事
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會保持他的完整性嗎?還是會被軍方
10:30
or extremists極端分子 of all kinds? We cannot不能 tell.
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或類似極端主義給奪走? 我們不知道。
10:34
Same相同 works作品 for the Western西 sector扇形, where you can see
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同樣的事情在西方也在上演,你可以看到
10:37
all of these excited興奮 young年輕 people protesting抗議 around the world世界,
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這些興奮的年輕人在世界各處抗爭著,
10:40
occupying佔用 this, occupying佔用 that.
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佔領這個,佔領那個。
10:43
Are they going to become成為 the world世界 wave?
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他們會變成世界的潮流嗎?
10:46
Are they going to find their skills技能, their enthusiasm熱情,
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他們會發現他們的技能、熱情
10:49
and their strategy戰略 to find what they really want
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和他們的策略來發現他們真正想要的
10:53
and push for the reform改革, or will they just stay
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並將他們推向重建的路上? 抑或是
10:56
complaining抱怨的 about the endless無窮 list名單 of the things they hate討厭?
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他們只會持續抱怨那些
他們厭惡且無止盡的事情?
11:01
This is the difference區別 between之間 two towns城市.
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這就是兩座城市之間有的差別。
11:04
Now, what [do] the statistics統計 have?
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現在,統計學家有個甚麼資訊?
11:07
My friend's朋友的 book, Maria瑪麗亞 Stephan's史蒂芬 book,
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我一個朋友的書,Maria Stephan的書,
11:09
talks會談 a lot about violent暴力 and nonviolent非暴力 struggle鬥爭,
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講述很多關於暴力和非暴力抗爭的事,
11:12
and there are some shocking觸目驚心 data數據.
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而這裡有些令人震撼的資料。
11:15
If you look at the last 35 years年份
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如果你回顧過去的35年,
11:18
and different不同 social社會 transitions過渡 from dictatorship專政 to democracy民主,
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從獨裁轉到民主的路上有不同的社會轉變
11:21
you will see that out of 67 different不同 cases,
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你會發現有67種不一樣的情形,
11:24
in 50 of these cases it was nonviolent非暴力 struggle鬥爭
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其中的50個是非暴力型的抗爭
11:28
which哪一個 was the key power功率.
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而這就是關鍵。
11:31
This is one more reason原因 to look at this phenomenon現象.
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這是另一個去關注這個現象的理由。
11:34
This is one more reason原因 to look at the Generation Epsilon小量,
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這是另一個去關注Epsilon世代的理由,
11:37
enough足夠 for me to give them credit信用 and hope希望
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我已經給他們足夠信譽和希望了
11:40
that they will find their skills技能 and their courage勇氣
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他們會發現他們的技能和勇氣,
11:44
to use the nonviolent非暴力 struggle鬥爭
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應用在非暴力性抗爭上,
11:46
and thus從而 fix固定 at least最小 a part部分 of the mess食堂
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並最少能因此修正一些
11:49
our generation is making製造 in this world世界.
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由我們這世代在世上所造成的混亂
11:51
Thank you. (Applause掌聲)
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謝謝大家。
Translated by Jui-Hsin Chen
Reviewed by Josephine Yeung

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Srdja Popovic - Organizer
Srdja Popovic was a founder and leader of the student movement that brought down the Milosovic regime. Now, he helps other nonviolent movements learn and grow.

Why you should listen

Srdja Popovic was one of the founders and key organizers of the Serbian nonviolent resistance group Otpor! Otpor!’s campaign to unseat Serbian president Slobodan Milosovic found success in October 2000 when hundreds of thousands of protestors converged upon and took over the Serbian Parliament, effectively ending Milosevic’s rule. After the revolution, Popovic served a term as a member of the Serbian National Assembly 2000-2003.

In 2003, Popovic and other ex-Otpor! activists started the nonprofit educational institution the Centre for Applied Nonviolent Action and Strategies (CANVAS) (www.canvasopedia.org). CANVAS has worked with people from 37 countries, including Zimbabwe, Burma, Iran and Venezuela, spreading knowledge on nonviolent strategies and tactics that was used by the Serbian pro-democracy movement to other non-democratic countries. CANVAS has worked with the activists responsible for successful movements such as the Georgian “Rose Revolution” of 2003 and the Ukrainian “Orange Revolution” of 2004-2005. It also transferred knowledge to Lebanese activists in 2004 to address the crisis after the assassination of Prime Minister Harriri, and assisted participants in the Maldives’ revolution in 2008. Recently CANVAS has worked with April 6th, a key group in the Egyptian nonviolent uprising, as well as other groups from the Middle East.

CANVAS’ teachings are available in a documentary, "Bringing Down a Dictator," featuring Otpor strategies to topple Milosevic. Its manual "Nonviolent Struggle: 50 Crucial Points" was translated into 16 languages, including Farsi and Arabic, and was downloaded 17,000 times from Iran during that country's 2009 protests.

More profile about the speaker
Srdja Popovic | Speaker | TED.com