Stephen Webb: Where are all the aliens?
史帝芬韋柏: 外星人到哪兒去了?
Stephen Webb is a science fiction fan who's passionately interested in what the future might hold for our species. Full bio
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who was a couple of years older,
他比我大幾歲,
hovering over the houses.
銀色碟形物在房子上方盤旋。
速度瞬間飛走。
the laws of physics.
after a few drinks."
當時正要離開。」
I said, "I can explain that sighting."
「我能解釋你的目擊。」
we can't trust our brains
我們不能相信我們的大腦
the data my eyes were giving it?
我的眼睛給它的資料?
flying saucers flitting around?
out there in the cosmos?
在宇宙中有生命?
with dozens of experts
over the past three decades.
for alien signals back in 1960 --
就開始尋找外星人的線索——
for any alien activity gets more puzzling
讓這一切更令人迷惑不解,
of the universe by one year,
about 12 minutes before midnight,
午夜前 12 分鐘才出現的,
has existed for a few seconds.
could have started in the summer months.
more advanced than ours,
被接受的物理為基礎,
or warp drives -- whatever --
諸如此類——
of the sort of tech that TED celebrates.
那種科技的推斷而已。
self-replicating probes
會自我複製的探測飛船,
system in the galaxy.
just after midnight one August day,
發射了第一艘探測飛船,
isn't much more difficult,
of millions of galaxies
in some recognizable activity --
可辨識的活動嗎?——
to capture free sunlight,
小世界來捕捉免費的陽光、
to the universe, "We're here"?
「我們在這裡!」
these civilizations to exist, don't we?
會有這類文明存在,對吧?
a trillion planets in the galaxy --
可能有一兆個星球——
to consider this question,
你也會去思考這個問題,
with lots of people over the years.
一起探索了這個問題。
frame their thinking
在表述他們的想法時,
that would need to be cleared
a communicative civilization.
能夠溝通的文明存在。
four key barriers.
in that just right "Goldilocks zone,"
「適居帶」的外星星球,
there's a planet in the habitable zone
在最近的恆星適居帶上
project plans to send probes there.
計畫打算要送探測飛船過去。
and they'll fry,
and they'll freeze.
aren't unique to Earth:
in interstellar dust clouds,
how they combine to create life,
要如何結合起來創造生命,
on which life doesn't start.
生命跡象尚未開始。
civilization is a third barrier.
with alien intelligences.
和外星智慧共享我們的星球。
can cooperate to solve problems.
大象能夠合作來解決問題。
can recognize different humans.
can plan for future events --
渡鴉會規劃未來事件——
the Breakthrough Starshot project,
「突破攝星」計畫,
to implement Breakthrough Starshot --
「突破攝星」計劃——
space travel as an end goal.
doesn't give rise to advanced technology.
不會去發展先進科技。
that's a fourth barrier.
那是第四個障礙。
choose to explore inner space
rather than large.
而非長距離的。
to risk an encounter
不想冒險,以免遇到
and hostile neighbor.
for whatever reason,
or don't spend long trying to communicate.
花費心力去試圖與遠方溝通。
thousands of civilizations in the galaxy.
在銀河系中有數千個文明存在。
Where is everybody?
原本的謎:他們在哪裡?
包括我看見的那一個——
它們是太空船。
playing with the idea aliens are here.
而想像有外星人來到這裡。
did colonize the galaxy
的確已經殖民了銀河系,
in a cosmic wilderness preserve --
宇宙的荒野保護區——
revealed the aliens yet.
讓外星人現身而已。
argue that E.T. is out there,
主張有 E.T. 存在,
spend more on the search.
投入更多心力去搜尋。
our place in the universe.
在宇宙中的定位。
planets in the galaxy.
capable of contemplating this question?
這個問題的生物,聽起來合理嗎?
a trillion is a big number.
算是很大的數目。
proposed the Rare Earth idea.
提出了「地球殊異」的想法。
the number of civilizations?
there might be more.
sophisticated argument.
inhabitants enjoyed
但總的來說仍然是溫和的。
stability is strange,
towards freezing or frying.
a quite different Earth-Moon system.
是個很不同的地球—月球系統。
to have both a stable axial tilt
軸向傾斜角度,
moderate climate change.
were just a few miles bigger,
如果月球再大個幾英哩,
would now wander chaotically.
混亂地偏離正軌。
of rapid climate change --
a "Goldilocks" planet --
有個「適居」的月球——
billions of years ago ...
簡單細胞就出現了……
of complex life
不太可能發生的事件。
had access to multicellularity
at the level of simple cells.
to add to the four
可能的障礙,來補充
to communicative civilization.
與外星文明溝通的四個障礙。
of illustration,
補充說明清楚,
of making it across each of the barriers.
機會是千分之一。
different ways of navigating the barriers,
方式來通過障礙,
than one in a thousand.
might be one in a million.
只有百萬分之一。
what happens in this picture.
會發生什麼事。
capable of contemplating like us
且像我們一樣能夠去思忖
around the right sort of star --
一個星球能符合。
of science and mathematics --
科學和數學的技術——
一個星球能符合。
they'll have to be social creatures,
他們必須要是社交型的生物,
abstract concepts with each other
一個星球能符合。
but from the skies, too.
還有來自天空的災難。
一個星球能符合。
who agree we're alone
forms the barrier
of a truly advanced civilization.
and "Forbidden Planet,"
與《禁忌星球》長大的,
I certainly find slightly wistful.
想法感到有點愁悶。
that's cleared them --
所有障礙的物種——
of determining its own destiny.
how special our planet is,
欣賞我們的星球有多特別、
simply to be aware of the universe,
我們就有多麼幸運,
might have done in the past,
在過去可能做過的事,
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Stephen Webb - Writer, scientistStephen Webb is a science fiction fan who's passionately interested in what the future might hold for our species.
Why you should listen
An early preoccupation with science fiction ended up influencing most of Stephen Webb's professional activity. It instilled in him a deep love of science and the scientific endeavor, which in turn led him to complete a PhD in theoretical particle physics. Isaac Asimov's story "The Fun They Had," about computerized homeschooling, prompted him to consider how digital technology might deepen students' learning, which in turn led to posts in a variety of UK universities.
And it was in the pages of a science fiction magazine that he first encountered the Fermi paradox, which kindled a lifelong fascination with the problem of why we see no signs of extraterrestrial intelligence -- and led to his book Where Is Everybody, which explores the question in detail. Webb hopes to pass on his love of science through his outreach work, and he is the author of a number of popular science books. He is working on New Light Through Old Windows, an anthology of classic science fiction tales; each tale appears alongside a commentary detailing the latest scientific thinking relating to the story's theme.
Stephen Webb | Speaker | TED.com