TEDSalon Berlin 2014
Thomas Piketty: New thoughts on capital in the twenty-first century
托瑪．皮凱提: 二十一世紀資本論的新思維
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法國經濟學家托瑪．皮凱提的著作在 2014 年初引起轟動，他在書中用一個簡單又殘酷的公式 r>g（資本報酬率通常高過於經濟成長率）說明貧富不均。在此他詳細說明大量的資料集，這些資料集讓他做出結論：貧富不均並非新鮮事，但卻更加惡化了，而且還可能帶來嚴重影響。
Thomas Piketty - Economist
Thomas Piketty is an economist and professor at the Paris School of Economics. His 2014 book, "Capital in the Twenty-first Century," caused a sensation upon publication. Full bio
Thomas Piketty is an economist and professor at the Paris School of Economics. His 2014 book, "Capital in the Twenty-first Century," caused a sensation upon publication. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
It's very nice to be here tonight.
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今晚能來到 TED 實在太棒了！
00:14
So I've been working on the history of income
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我一直在研究有關
所得和財富分配的歷史，已經 15 年了，
00:18
and wealth distribution for the past 15 years,
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00:21
and one of the interesting lessons
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從這些過往的證據裡
00:25
coming from this historical evidence
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可以發現一個很有意思的道理，
00:27
is indeed that, in the long run,
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那就是長期來說
00:29
there is a tendency for
the rate of return of capital
the rate of return of capital
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資本報酬率有高於
經濟成長率的趨勢，
經濟成長率的趨勢，
00:33
to exceed the economy's growth rate,
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00:35
and this tends to lead to
high concentration of wealth.
high concentration of wealth.
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這種趨勢容易造成財富高度集中，
00:38
Not infinite concentration of wealth,
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雖然並不是無止境的財富集中，
00:40
but the higher the gap between r and g,
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但是資本報酬率 (r)
與經濟成長率 (g) 差距越大，
與經濟成長率 (g) 差距越大，
00:43
the higher the level of inequality of wealth
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財富不均的程度就會越嚴重，
00:46
towards which society tends to converge.
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社會裡的不平等也會越嚴重。
00:49
So this is a key force that
I'm going to talk about today,
I'm going to talk about today,
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這就是我今天要談的主要因素，
00:52
but let me say right away
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不過讓我先說明，
00:54
that this is not the only important force
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這並不是所得和財富分配變動的
00:57
in the dynamics of income
and wealth distribution,
and wealth distribution,
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唯一重要因素，
00:59
and there are many other forces that play
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還有許多其他因素
01:01
an important role in the long-run dynamics
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在所得和財富分配的長期變動上
01:04
of income and wealth distribution.
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扮演著重要的角色。
01:06
Also there is a lot of data
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而且還有許多資料有待蒐集。
01:08
that still needs to be collected.
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今天我們比以前懂多一些，
01:09
We know a little bit more today
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01:12
than we used to know,
but we still know too little,
but we still know too little,
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不過懂的還是太少了，
01:15
and certainly there are
many different processes —
many different processes —
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而且一定還有許多不同的演變過程，
01:17
economic, social, political —
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像是經濟、社會、政治，
01:20
that need to be studied more.
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需要再多做研究。
01:21
And so I'm going to focus today on this simple force,
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而我今天會鎖定在這個單一因素，
01:24
but that doesn't mean that other important forces
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但這並不是說就沒有
其他重要因素了。
其他重要因素了。
01:26
do not exist.
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01:28
So most of the data I'm going to present
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我接下來要呈現的資料
01:30
comes from this database
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大部分來自可上網取得的資料庫：
01:32
that's available online:
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01:33
the World Top Incomes Database.
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「全球高所得資料庫」。
01:35
So this is the largest existing
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這是現存最大的
01:37
historical database on inequality,
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所得不均歷史資料庫，
01:39
and this comes from the effort
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得力於數十個國家
01:41
of over 30 scholars from several dozen countries.
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超過三十位學者的貢獻。
01:45
So let me show you a couple of facts
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就讓我來帶大家看一些
從資料庫裡得出的事實，
01:47
coming from this database,
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01:49
and then we'll return to r bigger than g.
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然後我們再回來談 r 大於 g。
01:51
So fact number one is that there has been
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事實一，
美國和歐洲所得不均的排行
01:53
a big reversal in the ordering of income inequality
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01:56
between the United States and Europe
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在上個世紀發生了大逆轉。
01:58
over the past century.
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時間拉回到 1900 年、1910 年，
02:00
So back in 1900, 1910, income inequality was actually
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歐洲所得不均的排名確實高於美國，
02:03
much higher in Europe than in the United States,
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02:06
whereas today, it is a lot higher in the United States.
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而今天美國排名卻遠高於歐洲。
02:09
So let me be very clear:
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我先聲明，
02:10
The main explanation for this is not r bigger than g.
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這裡主要的原因並不是 r 大於 g，
02:13
It has more to do with changing supply and demand
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而是與以往不同的人才供需、
02:17
for skill, the race between education and technology,
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教育跟科技間的競賽、
02:20
globalization, probably more unequal access
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全球化有關，
也許和美國不平等的
技能學習管道大有關係。
技能學習管道大有關係。
02:24
to skills in the U.S.,
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02:25
where you have very good, very top universities
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美國有非常好、頂尖的大學，
02:28
but where the bottom part of the educational system
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但基礎教育卻沒有很好。
02:30
is not as good,
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02:31
so very unequal access to skills,
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因此不平等的技能學習管道
02:33
and also an unprecedented rise
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再加上美國高階主管的薪資福利
02:35
of top managerial compensation of the United States,
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史無前例的大幅提升，
02:38
which is difficult to account for
just on the basis of education.
just on the basis of education.
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很難以教育為基礎來解釋這個問題。
02:41
So there is more going on here,
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因此這之中還有許多因素，
02:43
but I'm not going to talk too much about this today,
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但我今天不打算在這上面講太多，
02:46
because I want to focus on wealth inequality.
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因為我要聚焦在財富不均。
02:48
So let me just show you a very simple indicator
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請看這項
關於所得不均的簡易指標。
02:51
about the income inequality part.
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02:54
So this is the share of total income
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這是所得前 10% 者的所得
02:56
going to the top 10 percent.
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佔總所得的比重，
02:58
So you can see that one century ago,
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所以你可以看到在一個世紀以前，
03:00
it was between 45 and 50 percent in Europe
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歐洲的比例是在 45% 至 50% 之間，
03:04
and a little bit above 40 percent in the U.S.,
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美國稍微高過 40%，
03:06
so there was more inequality in Europe.
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所以歐洲的所得較不平均。
03:09
Then there was a sharp decline
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到了二十世紀上半葉，
03:11
during the first half of the 20th century,
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比重大大下滑，
03:13
and in the recent decade, you can see that
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接著近數十年來，
你可以發現美國所得不均的現象
變得比歐洲更嚴重，
變得比歐洲更嚴重，
03:16
the U.S. has become more unequal than Europe,
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03:19
and this is the first fact I just talked about.
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這正是我剛說的第一個事實。
03:22
Now, the second fact is more about wealth inequality,
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第二項事實跟財富不均更有關係，
03:26
and here the central fact is that wealth inequality
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核心的事實就是
財富不均一直遠高於所得不均。
03:29
is always a lot higher than income inequality,
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03:31
and also that wealth inequality,
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雖然近幾十年來財富不均日益嚴重，
03:34
although it has also increased in recent decades,
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03:36
is still less extreme today
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但是比起上一個世紀，
03:38
than what it was a century ago,
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現在已經沒那麼極端了。
03:40
although the total quantity of wealth
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然而現在與所得有關的財富總量
03:43
relative to income has now recovered
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已從一次世界大戰、大蕭條、
03:45
from the very large shocks
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第二次世界大戰的重創中
03:46
caused by World War I, the Great Depression,
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03:48
World War II.
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恢復正常了。
03:50
So let me show you two graphs
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請各位看這兩張圖表，
03:52
illustrating fact number two and fact number three.
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解釋了事實二和事實三。
03:55
So first, if you look at the level of wealth inequality,
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首先，如果你注意看財富不均的程度，
03:59
this is the share of total wealth
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這是財富前 10% 者持有財富
04:02
going to the top 10 percent of wealth holders,
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佔總財富的比重，
04:05
so you can see the same kind of reversal
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你可以發現
美國與歐洲之間有相同的逆轉，
04:07
between the U.S. and Europe that we had before
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就跟過去所得不均的逆轉一樣。
04:10
for income inequality.
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04:12
So wealth concentration was higher
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所以百年前歐洲財富集中的情形
04:15
in Europe than in the U.S. a century ago,
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高過於美國，
04:17
and now it is the opposite.
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現在就顛倒過來了。
04:19
But you can also show two things:
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另外你也可以看出兩件事情，
04:21
First, the general level of wealth inequality
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第一、財富不均的程度
04:25
is always higher than income inequality.
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普遍高於所得不均。
04:27
So remember, for income inequality,
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記得所得不均的情況，
04:30
the share going to the top 10 percent
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前 10% 者擁有的所得
04:32
was between 30 and 50 percent of total income,
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是總所得的 30% 至 50%，
04:36
whereas for wealth, the share is always
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然而他們擁有的財富比例
卻一直在 60% 至 90% 之間。
04:39
between 60 and 90 percent.
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04:41
Okay, so that's fact number one,
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這就是事實一，
04:43
and that's very important for what follows.
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對之後要說的很重要。
04:45
Wealth concentration is always
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財富一直都
04:46
a lot higher than income concentration.
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遠比所得更為集中。
04:48
Fact number two is that the rise
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事實二、
近幾十年來財富不均惡化的情況
04:52
in wealth inequality in recent decades
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04:55
is still not enough to get us back to 1910.
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還不致於像 1910 年那樣嚴重。
04:59
So the big difference today,
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與過去不同的是，
05:01
wealth inequality is still very large,
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現在的貧富差距依然很大，
05:03
with 60, 70 percent of total wealth for the top 10,
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前10% 的富人擁有
60% 至 70% 的總財富，
60% 至 70% 的總財富，
05:06
but the good news is that it's actually
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但好消息是
情況的確已經比上個世紀好多了，
05:08
better than one century ago,
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05:10
where you had 90 percent in
Europe going to the top 10.
Europe going to the top 10.
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當時 90% 的總財富
落入了前 10% 富人的口袋裡。
落入了前 10% 富人的口袋裡。
05:13
So today what you have
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那麼今天你們看到的是
05:15
is what I call the middle 40 percent,
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我稱為中間 40% 的人，
05:17
the people who are not in the top 10
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不是前 10 %，
05:19
and who are not in the bottom 50,
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也不是墊底的 50%，
05:21
and what you can view as the wealth middle class
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他們可以說是財富的中產階級，
05:23
that owns 20 to 30 percent
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擁有總財富、國家財富的 20% 至 30%；
05:26
of total wealth, national wealth,
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05:28
whereas they used to be poor, a century ago,
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然而上個世紀他們卻是窮人，
05:31
when there was basically no wealth middle class.
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因為那時候基本上沒有
財富的中產階級。
財富的中產階級。
05:34
So this is an important change,
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所以這是很重大的改變，
05:35
and it's interesting to see that wealth inequality
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而且看到財富不均沒有完全恢復到
05:40
has not fully recovered to pre-World War I levels,
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第一次世界大戰之前的程度也很有趣，
05:43
although the total quantity of wealth has recovered.
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即便財富總量已經是恢復了。
05:47
Okay? So this is the total value
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沒問題吧？
這是相較於所得的財富總值，
05:49
of wealth relative to income,
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05:51
and you can see that in particular in Europe,
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你可以看到特別是歐洲，
05:53
we are almost back to the pre-World War I level.
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我們幾乎是回到了
第一次世界大戰之前的程度。
第一次世界大戰之前的程度。
05:57
So there are really two
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這件事其實有兩個不一樣的面向，
05:59
different parts of the story here.
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一個是關於我們累積的財富總量，
06:01
One has to do with
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06:02
the total quantity of wealth that we accumulate,
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當然累積一大堆財富
06:05
and there is nothing bad per se, of course,
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06:07
in accumulating a lot of wealth,
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這件事本身沒有不好，
06:08
and in particular if it is more diffuse
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特別是假如財富更分散，
06:11
and less concentrated.
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又比較不那麼集中的時候。
06:13
So what we really want to focus on
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那麼我們真正關心的是什麼？
06:15
is the long-run evolution of wealth inequality,
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是財富不均的長期演變，
06:18
and what's going to happen in the future.
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還有未來會發生什麼事。
06:20
How can we account for the fact that
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我們要如何解釋
第一次世界大戰以前，
第一次世界大戰以前，
06:22
until World War I, wealth inequality was so high
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財富差距如此大，
06:26
and, if anything, was rising to even higher levels,
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而且是大到前所未有的程度，
06:29
and how can we think about the future?
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那麼我們該如何看待未來呢？
06:32
So let me come to some of the explanations
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那麼讓我來做一些說明，
06:36
and speculations about the future.
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以及預測未來。
06:38
Let me first say that
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我先聲明，
06:40
probably the best model to explain
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解釋財富為什麼比所得
06:42
why wealth is so much
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還要更集中的最佳經濟模型
06:44
more concentrated than income
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大概是一種動態、世代的經濟模型，
06:46
is a dynamic, dynastic model
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06:49
where individuals have a long horizon
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其中每個人都長期
06:52
and accumulate wealth for all sorts of reasons.
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為了各種理由來累積財富。
06:54
If people were accumulating wealth
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假使人們累積財富
06:57
only for life cycle reasons,
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只是為了因應生命週期，
06:59
you know, to be able to consume
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為了在他們老的時候
07:01
when they are old,
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還有能力花錢消費，
07:03
then the level of wealth inequality
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那麼財富不均的情形
07:05
should be more or less in line
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應該和所得不均的情形
07:07
with the level of income inequality.
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相差不遠。
07:09
But it will be very difficult to explain
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可是你很難說明
07:11
why you have so much more wealth inequality
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為什麼財富不均要比所得不均更嚴重，
07:13
than income inequality
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07:15
with a pure life cycle model,
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只憑生命週期理論，
07:16
so you need a story
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所以你需要一個情境，
07:18
where people also care
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426741
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在其中的人們會為了
其他理由累積財富。
其他理由累積財富。
07:20
about wealth accumulation for other reasons.
175
428429
2531
07:22
So typically, they want to transmit
176
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1924
一般來說，他們想把財富
07:24
wealth to the next generation, to their children,
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3326
交給下一代、他們的小孩，
或者有時候他們累積財富
07:28
or sometimes they want to accumulate wealth
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1768
07:29
because of the prestige, the
power that goes with wealth.
power that goes with wealth.
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2768
是為了特權──伴隨財富而來的權力。
07:32
So there must be other reasons
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所以累積財富一定有除了
07:34
for accumulating wealth than just life cycle
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1990
生命週期以外的理由，
07:36
to explain what we see in the data.
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2768
來解釋我們在資料裡發現的情況。
07:38
Now, in a large class of dynamic models
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3346
在這種累積財富
07:42
of wealth accumulation
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1976
07:44
with such dynastic motive for accumulating wealth,
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3558
是為了累積世代財富的變動模式之中，
07:47
you will have all sorts of random,
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2846
會有各種毫無規則且加倍的衝擊。
07:50
multiplicative shocks.
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923
07:51
So for instance, some families
188
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2249
舉例來說：
有些家庭有非常多的小孩，
07:53
have a very large number of children,
189
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1687
07:55
so the wealth will be divided.
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1766
因此財富就會分散，
07:57
Some families have fewer children.
191
465239
1890
有些家庭的小孩則較少。
07:59
You also have shocks to rates of return.
192
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2228
你也會對資產報酬率感到吃驚，
08:01
Some families make huge capital gains.
193
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2097
有的家庭有大筆資本利得，
08:03
Some made bad investments.
194
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1795
有的卻投資失利。
08:05
So you will always have some mobility
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2241
因此財富累積的過程
08:07
in the wealth process.
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475490
1438
總是會有一些流動，
08:08
Some people will move up,
some people will move down.
some people will move down.
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476928
2375
有些人會往上升、
有些人則會往下掉。
有些人則會往下掉。
08:11
The important point is that,
198
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1652
重點是任何在這種模型下，
08:12
in any such model,
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1010
08:13
for a given variance of such shocks,
200
481965
2556
有這種特定的變動衝擊，
08:16
the equilibrium level of wealth inequality
201
484521
2036
財富不均的水平
08:18
will be a steeply rising function of r minus g.
202
486557
4837
會成為急遽升高的 r 減 g 函數。
08:23
And intuitively, the reason why the difference
203
491394
2869
財富報酬率與經濟成長率之間的差異
08:26
between the rate of return to wealth
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494263
1844
為什麼重要，
08:28
and the growth rate is important
205
496107
1755
08:29
is that initial wealth inequalities
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497862
2312
想當然是因為只要 r 減 g 的數值越大，
08:32
will be amplified at a faster pace
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2391
最初財富不均的情況就會被擴大得更快。
08:34
with a bigger r minus g.
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2069
08:36
So take a simple example,
209
504634
1474
舉個簡單的例子：
08:38
with r equals five percent and g equals one percent,
210
506108
3766
假設 r 是 5% 而 g 是 1%，
08:41
wealth holders only need to reinvest
211
509874
2108
財富持有人只需要再投資
08:43
one fifth of their capital income to ensure
212
511982
2639
資本所得的五分之一，
08:46
that their wealth rises as fast
213
514621
2733
他們財富增加的速度
就會跟經濟成長一樣快。
08:49
as the size of the economy.
214
517354
1913
08:51
So this makes it easier
215
519267
1383
因此創造和保有大筆財富就更容易，
08:52
to build and perpetuate large fortunes
216
520650
1766
08:54
because you can consume four fifths,
217
522416
1955
因為你可以消費五分之四，
08:56
assuming zero tax,
218
524371
1739
假設零稅率，
08:58
and you can just reinvest one fifth.
219
526110
1661
你就可以再投資五分之一。
08:59
So of course some families
will consume more than that,
will consume more than that,
220
527771
2588
當然有些家庭會消費多一些、
09:02
some will consume less, so there will be
221
530359
1743
有的則消費較少，
分配上就會有一些變動，
09:04
some mobility in the distribution,
222
532102
1755
09:05
but on average, they only need to reinvest one fifth,
223
533857
2846
但是總的來看，
他們只要再投資五分之一，
他們只要再投資五分之一，
09:08
so this allows high wealth inequalities to be sustained.
224
536703
3769
這樣就能維持財富高度不均。
09:12
Now, you should not be surprised
225
540472
2497
現在你應該不會驚訝於
09:14
by the statement that r can be bigger than g forever,
226
542969
3536
r 永遠可以大於 g 這句話了，
09:18
because, in fact, this is what happened
227
546505
1616
因為事實上，
這種情況在人類史上很常見。
09:20
during most of the history of mankind.
228
548121
2071
09:22
And this was in a way very obvious to everybody
229
550192
3351
這種情況大家都能看得一清二楚，
09:25
for a simple reason, which is that growth
230
553543
1778
理由很簡單，
因為史上大多數時候
經濟成長率幾乎是 0%。
經濟成長率幾乎是 0%。
09:27
was close to zero percent
231
555321
2188
09:29
during most of the history of mankind.
232
557509
1621
經濟成長率也許是
0.1%、0.2% 或 0.3%，
0.1%、0.2% 或 0.3%，
09:31
Growth was maybe 0.1, 0.2, 0.3 percent,
233
559130
3532
09:34
but very slow growth of population
234
562662
1996
但人口和人均產出的成長率非常慢，
09:36
and output per capita,
235
564658
1997
09:38
whereas the rate of return on capital
236
566655
1884
那時候資本報酬率
09:40
of course was not zero percent.
237
568539
1856
當然不會是 0%。
09:42
It was, for land assets, which was
238
570395
2036
以土地來說，
09:44
the traditional form
239
572431
1809
在工業化以前的社會，
09:46
of assets in preindustrial societies,
240
574240
2401
土地是典型的資產，
09:48
it was typically five percent.
241
576641
1763
報酬率通常是 5%。
09:50
Any reader of Jane Austen would know that.
242
578404
3786
任何讀過珍奧斯汀作品的人都知道。
09:54
If you want an annual income of 1,000 pounds,
243
582190
2908
假如你想要得到一千英磅的年所得，
09:57
you should have a capital value
244
585098
1642
你應該要有價值兩萬英鎊的資本，
09:58
of 20,000 pounds so that
245
586740
1856
10:00
five percent of 20,000 is 1,000.
246
588596
2550
兩萬的 5% 就是一千。
10:03
And in a way, this was
247
591146
2017
這就是以前社會的基礎，
10:05
the very foundation of society,
248
593163
1778
10:06
because r bigger than g
249
594941
3035
因為 r 大於 g
10:09
was what allowed holders of wealth and assets
250
597976
4124
就會讓財富以及資產的持有者可以
10:14
to live off their capital income
251
602100
2690
靠著資本所得過生活，
10:16
and to do something else in life
252
604790
2700
還能在生活中做些別的事，
10:19
than just to care about their own survival.
253
607490
3195
而不是只關心能不能填飽肚子。
10:22
Now, one important conclusion
254
610685
2160
我的歷史研究
10:24
of my historical research is that
255
612845
1991
有一個重要的結論是
10:26
modern industrial growth did not change
256
614836
2711
現代工業的發展並未如我們期待
10:29
this basic fact as much as one might have expected.
257
617547
2824
改變這個簡單的事實太多。
10:32
Of course, the growth rate
258
620371
1679
當然經濟成長率
10:34
following the Industrial Revolution
259
622050
1808
隨著工業革命後增加，
10:35
rose, typically from zero to one to two percent,
260
623858
4322
通常是多出零到 1% 或 2%，
10:40
but at the same time, the rate of return
261
628180
1930
不過同一時間
資本報酬率也增加了，
10:42
to capital also rose
262
630110
1645
10:43
so that the gap between the two
263
631755
2425
所以貧富差距沒多少改變。
10:46
did not really change.
264
634180
1456
10:47
So during the 20th century,
265
635636
2250
二十世紀
10:49
you had a very unique combination of events.
266
637886
2644
是由許多事件交織成的特殊時代。
10:52
First, a very low rate of return
267
640530
2017
首先是非常低的報酬率，
10:54
due to the 1914 and 1945 war shocks,
268
642547
3016
肇因於 1914 年和 1945 年
戰爭造成的衝擊、
戰爭造成的衝擊、
10:57
destruction of wealth, inflation,
269
645563
2305
財富破壞、通貨膨脹、
10:59
bankruptcy during the Great Depression,
270
647868
1980
以及大蕭條期間的破產，
11:01
and all of this reduced
271
649848
1665
以上原因讓個人的財富報酬率
11:03
the private rate of return to wealth
272
651513
1750
11:05
to unusually low levels
273
653263
1895
在 1914 到 1945 年時
11:07
between 1914 and 1945.
274
655158
2339
下降到異常低的程度。
接著在戰後期間
11:09
And then, in the postwar period,
275
657497
1836
11:11
you had unusually high growth rate,
276
659333
3237
出現異常高的經濟成長率，
11:14
partly due to the reconstruction.
277
662570
2374
部分歸功於重建。
11:16
You know, in Germany, in France, in Japan,
278
664944
1925
在德國、法國和日本，
11:18
you had five percent growth rate
279
666869
1551
在 1950 到 1980 年之間，
11:20
between 1950 and 1980
280
668420
3150
出現過 5% 的經濟成長率，
11:23
largely due to reconstruction,
281
671570
1643
大部分歸功於重建，
11:25
and also due to very large demographic growth,
282
673213
2351
也歸功於大量的人口成長，
11:27
the Baby Boom Cohort effect.
283
675564
2141
也就是嬰兒潮世代。
11:29
Now, apparently that's not going to last for very long,
284
677705
2438
顯然那無法持續太久，
11:32
or at least the population growth
285
680143
1675
或者至少未來
11:33
is supposed to decline in the future,
286
681818
2768
人口成長應該會下降，
11:36
and the best projections we have is that
287
684586
3656
我們有的最佳預測是
11:40
the long-run growth is going to be closer
288
688242
1828
長期經濟成長率
11:42
to one to two percent
289
690070
1423
將會是 1% 至 2%，
11:43
rather than four to five percent.
290
691493
1946
而不是 4% 至 5%。
11:45
So if you look at this,
291
693439
2677
如果你看到這邊，
11:48
these are the best estimates we have
292
696116
2141
這是全球國內生產毛額、
11:50
of world GDP growth
293
698257
1656
11:51
and rate of return on capital,
294
699913
2359
資本報酬率、
11:54
average rates of return on capital,
295
702272
2088
也就是平均資產報酬率的最佳預測。
11:56
so you can see that during most
296
704360
1068
你能看到人類史上
11:57
of the history of mankind,
297
705428
1517
大多數時間的
11:58
the growth rate was very small,
298
706945
1613
經濟成長率非常低，
12:00
much lower than the rate of return,
299
708558
1834
遠低於資本報酬率，
12:02
and then during the 20th century,
300
710392
2362
後來在 20 世紀期間，
12:04
it is really the population growth,
301
712754
2171
真的就是人口成長，
12:06
very high in the postwar period,
302
714925
2272
戰後的人口成長率非常高，
12:09
and the reconstruction process
303
717197
1600
而重建的過程
讓經濟成長率
12:10
that brought growth
304
718797
1573
與資產報酬率間的差距縮小了。
12:12
to a smaller gap with the rate of return.
305
720370
3071
12:15
Here I use the United Nations population projections,
306
723441
3523
我用的是聯合國的未來人口預測，
12:18
so of course they are uncertain.
307
726964
2476
當然這些數字還不確定。
12:21
It could be that we all start
308
729440
1391
也許是我們開始準備
12:22
having a lot of children in the future,
309
730831
2106
要在未來生很多的小孩，
12:24
and the growth rates are going to be higher,
310
732937
2765
而經濟成長率就會更高一些，
12:27
but from now on,
311
735702
1249
但是從現在開始，
12:28
these are the best projections we have,
312
736951
2802
這些就是我們現有的最佳預測，
12:31
and this will make global growth
313
739753
1934
這將使得全球的經濟成長下滑、
12:33
decline and the gap between
314
741687
2756
還有與資產報酬率之間的
12:36
the rate of return go up.
315
744443
2003
差距將會擴大。
12:38
Now, the other unusual event
316
746446
2862
另一件 20 世紀發生的特殊事件，
12:41
during the 20th century
317
749308
1671
如同我剛才提到的，
12:42
was, as I said,
318
750979
1329
12:44
destruction, taxation of capital,
319
752308
2316
就是財產破壞、資本稅，
12:46
so this is the pre-tax rate of return.
320
754624
2735
這邊是稅前的報酬率；
12:49
This is the after-tax rate of return,
321
757359
2979
而這是稅後、財產破壞後的報酬率，
12:52
and after destruction,
322
760338
1566
12:53
and this is what brought
323
761904
1777
這是課稅後、財產破壞後的平均報酬率，
12:55
the average rate of return
324
763681
1688
就是稅金和財產破壞
12:57
after tax, after destruction,
325
765369
1789
12:59
below the growth rate during a long time period.
326
767158
2420
讓平均報酬率
長時間低於經濟成長率。
長時間低於經濟成長率。
13:01
But without the destruction,
327
769578
1674
但是如果沒有財產破壞和資本稅，
13:03
without the taxation, this
would not have happened.
would not have happened.
328
771252
2475
這些就不可能發生。
13:05
So let me say that the balance between
329
773727
3243
所以讓我這麼說吧，
資本報酬率以及經濟成長率之間的平衡
13:08
returns on capital and growth
330
776970
2356
13:11
depends on many different factors
331
779326
1862
取決於許多難以預料的各種因素，
13:13
that are very difficult to predict:
332
781188
2085
像是科技和資本密集技術的發展。
13:15
technology and the development
333
783273
2115
13:17
of capital-intensive techniques.
334
785388
2584
13:19
So right now, the most capital-intensive sectors
335
787972
3019
在目前的經濟裡，
資本最密集的行業是
13:22
in the economy are the real estate sector, housing,
336
790991
3376
地產業、房屋業、能源業，
13:26
the energy sector, but it could be in the future
337
794367
2862
不過未來有可能
13:29
that we have a lot more robots in a number of sectors
338
797229
3712
在部分部門中
我們會用上一大堆機器人，
我們會用上一大堆機器人，
13:32
and that this would be a bigger share
339
800941
1889
這些行業就會佔有
13:34
of the total capital stock that it is today.
340
802830
1910
比今天更高的總資本量比例。
13:36
Well, we are very far from this,
341
804740
1994
但那還遙不可及，
13:38
and from now, what's going on
342
806734
1766
從現在來說不動產業、能源業
13:40
in the real estate sector, the energy sector,
343
808500
1789
發生的變化，
13:42
is much more important for the total capital stock
344
810289
2126
對資本總量還有所佔比例
13:44
and capital share.
345
812415
1134
更加重要。
13:45
The other important issue
346
813549
2033
另一個重要的課題是
13:47
is that there are scale effects
in portfolio management,
in portfolio management,
347
815582
2150
投資組合管理的規模效果，
13:49
together with financial complexity,
348
817732
2419
結合金融的複雜性
13:52
financial deregulation,
349
820151
1450
與財政法令鬆綁，
13:53
that make it easier to get higher rates of return
350
821601
2709
使得大型的投資組合
13:56
for a large portfolio,
351
824310
1627
更容易得到較高的報酬率，
13:57
and this seems to be particularly strong
352
825937
2663
這對億萬富翁、大型資本捐贈來說
14:00
for billionaires, large capital endowments.
353
828600
1982
似乎格外有效。
14:02
Just to give you one example,
354
830582
2290
給你看個例子，
14:04
this comes from the Forbes billionaire rankings
355
832872
3333
這是富比士的億萬富翁排名，
14:08
over the 1987-2013 period,
356
836205
3330
1987 年到 2013 年期間的資料，
14:11
and you can see the very top wealth holders
357
839535
2788
你可以看到財富最多的那群人
14:14
have been going up at six, seven percent per year
358
842323
3117
財富實質上每年都比
通貨膨脹高 6% 至 7%，
通貨膨脹高 6% 至 7%，
14:17
in real terms above inflation,
359
845440
2391
14:19
whereas average income in the world,
360
847831
2372
但是世界上的平均所得、平均財富
14:22
average wealth in the world,
361
850203
1363
14:23
have increased at only two percent per year.
362
851566
3383
每年卻只增加 2%。
14:26
And you find the same
363
854949
1729
你也會看到同樣的情形
14:28
for large university endowments —
364
856678
1276
出現在大學的大型捐贈，
14:29
the bigger the initial endowments,
365
857954
2268
起始的捐贈基金規模越大，
14:32
the bigger the rate of return.
366
860222
2068
報酬率就越高。
14:34
Now, what could be done?
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862290
1678
我們可以做什麼呢？
14:35
The first thing is that I think we need
368
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2396
第一件事我認為我們需要
14:38
more financial transparency.
369
866364
2115
財務更加透明。
14:40
We know too little about global wealth dynamics,
370
868479
3841
我們對全球的財富流動所知不多，
14:44
so we need international transmission
371
872320
1900
因此我們需要銀行資訊在國際間傳遞，
14:46
of bank information.
372
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1262
我們需要全球性的金融資產登記制度，
14:47
We need a global registry of financial assets,
373
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2686
14:50
more coordination on wealth taxation,
374
878168
2491
並且在財富稅上做更多協調，
14:52
and even wealth tax with a small tax rate
375
880659
3112
縱使財富稅用較低的稅率，
14:55
will be a way to produce information
376
883771
2216
仍會是提供資訊的方式，
14:57
so that then we can adapt our policies
377
885987
2682
如此一來我們就能
依據發現的問題來調整政策。
15:00
to whatever we observe.
378
888669
1836
15:02
And to some extent, the fight
379
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1838
在某個程度來說，
15:04
against tax havens
380
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1481
對抗避稅天堂、
15:05
and automatic transmission of information
381
893824
1815
自動傳遞資訊
15:07
is pushing us in this direction.
382
895639
1851
都促使我們朝這個方向前進。
15:09
Now, there are other ways to redistribute wealth,
383
897490
2324
現在有其他重新分配財富的方法
15:11
which it can be tempting to use.
384
899814
2957
讓人非常想要採用，
15:14
Inflation:
385
902771
1356
像是通貨膨脹，
15:16
it's much easier to print money
386
904127
1699
比起擬定稅務規則，
印鈔票是簡單多了，
印鈔票是簡單多了，
15:17
than to write a tax code, so that's very tempting,
387
905826
2155
所以那非常誘人，
15:19
but sometimes you don't know
what you do with the money.
what you do with the money.
388
907981
2120
可是有時候你不清楚要怎麼處理錢，
15:22
This is a problem.
389
910101
1647
這就是問題了。
15:23
Expropriation is very tempting.
390
911748
1863
充公是非常吸引人的方式，
15:25
Just when you feel some people get too wealthy,
391
913611
2261
只要你認為有些人太富有了，
15:27
you just expropriate them.
392
915872
1294
你就讓他們的財產充公。
15:29
But this is not a very efficient way
393
917166
1712
但是制定讓財富流動的法令
15:30
to organize a regulation of wealth dynamics.
394
918878
2833
並不是非常有效的辦法；
15:33
So war is an even less efficient way,
395
921711
2479
而戰爭更是無效的辦法，
15:36
so I tend to prefer progressive taxation,
396
924190
2336
所以我比較偏好累進式稅制，
15:38
but of course, history — (Laughter) —
397
926526
2574
當然了，歷史…（笑聲）
15:41
history will invent its own best ways,
398
929100
1735
歷史會找到當下的最佳方法，
15:42
and it will probably involve
399
930835
1698
那可能會是所有方法的匯總。
15:44
a combination of all of these.
400
932533
1734
15:46
Thank you.
401
934267
1866
謝謝！
15:48
(Applause)
402
936133
2137
（掌聲）
15:50
Bruno Giussani: Thomas Piketty. Thank you.
403
938270
5559
布魯諾．吉桑尼：
托瑪．皮凱提，謝謝你。
托瑪．皮凱提，謝謝你。
15:55
Thomas, I want to ask you two or three questions,
404
943829
1879
托瑪，我想請教你兩、三個問題，
15:57
because it's impressive how you're
in command of your data, of course,
in command of your data, of course,
405
945708
3859
因為你運用資料的方式
讓人印象深刻，這是當然的了，
讓人印象深刻，這是當然的了，
16:01
but basically what you suggest is
406
949567
3794
不過基本上你指出的是
16:05
growing wealth concentration is kind of
407
953361
1573
財富集中的增長算是
16:06
a natural tendency of capitalism,
408
954934
1924
資本主義的自然趨勢，
16:08
and if we leave it to its own devices,
409
956858
3538
如果我們放任它不管，
16:12
it may threaten the system itself,
410
960396
2240
也許它會傷害到
資本主義本身的系統，
資本主義本身的系統，
16:14
so you're suggesting that we need to act
411
962636
1726
所以你認為我們需要採取
16:16
to implement policies that redistribute wealth,
412
964362
3038
落實財富重分配的政策，
16:19
including the ones we just saw:
413
967400
1721
包含我們剛剛看到的
16:21
progressive taxation, etc.
414
969121
1471
累進稅制…等等。
16:22
In the current political context,
415
970592
2139
在當前的政治環境裡，
16:24
how realistic are those?
416
972731
1991
那些方法的可能性有多高呢？
16:26
How likely do you think that it is
417
974722
1811
你又認為這些方法
16:28
that they will be implemented?
418
976533
1744
有多少可能性會被採用？
16:30
Thomas Piketty: Well, you know, I think
419
978277
1211
托瑪．皮凱提：好的，我認為
16:31
if you look back through time,
420
979488
1781
如果你回頭看，
16:33
the history of income, wealth and taxation
421
981269
2651
所得、財富還有稅制的歷史
16:35
is full of surprise.
422
983920
1602
總令人意外，
16:37
So I am not terribly impressed
423
985522
2605
所以我對那些事先知道
16:40
by those who know in advance
424
988127
1568
將來會或不會發生什麼事的人
16:41
what will or will not happen.
425
989695
1631
並沒有留下太深刻的印象。
16:43
I think one century ago,
426
991326
1704
我想一個世紀前，
16:45
many people would have said
427
993030
1569
許多人會說，
16:46
that progressive income taxation would never happen
428
994599
2138
累進式所得稅不可行，
16:48
and then it happened.
429
996737
1520
但後來卻實現了。
16:50
And even five years ago,
430
998257
1989
甚至是在五年前，
16:52
many people would have said that bank secrecy
431
1000246
2352
很多人會說瑞士的銀行保密
16:54
will be with us forever in Switzerland,
432
1002598
2025
會永遠罩著我們，
16:56
that Switzerland was too powerful
433
1004623
1788
因為瑞士對其他國家來說太強勢了。
16:58
for the rest of the world,
434
1006411
1489
16:59
and then suddenly it took a few U.S. sanctions
435
1007900
2961
後來突然間美國對瑞士
提出一些制裁，---
提出一些制裁，---
17:02
against Swiss banks for a big change to happen,
436
1010861
2622
要求大幅改變，
17:05
and now we are moving toward
437
1013483
1703
現在我們的財務會漸漸變得更透明。
17:07
more financial transparency.
438
1015186
1676
17:08
So I think it's not that difficult
439
1016862
4281
所以我認為要在政治上
17:13
to better coordinate politically.
440
1021143
2469
做更多協調不是太難的事。
17:15
We are going to have a treaty
441
1023612
2058
不久後會有一項協定
17:17
with half of the world GDP around the table
442
1025670
3049
由全球半數 GDP 的國家共同協議，
17:20
with the U.S. and the European Union,
443
1028719
2002
包含美國和歐盟，
17:22
so if half of the world GDP is not enough
444
1030721
2126
如果佔全球半數 GDP 的國家
17:24
to make progress on financial transparency
445
1032847
2666
還不足以改善財務透明、
17:27
and minimal tax for multinational corporate profits,
446
1035513
4084
對跨國公司的獲利課點稅，
17:31
what does it take?
447
1039597
1664
那需要多少才夠呢？
17:33
So I think these are not technical difficulties.
448
1041261
3623
所以我認為並沒有技術上的困難，
17:36
I think we can make progress
449
1044884
1924
我認為我們可以改善，
17:38
if we have a more pragmatic
approach to these questions
approach to these questions
450
1046808
2587
只要我們有更務實的方法
來解決這些問題，
來解決這些問題，
17:41
and we have the proper sanctions
451
1049395
1901
並且有恰當的制裁手段
17:43
on those who benefit from financial opacity.
452
1051296
2991
對付因為財務不透明而獲利的人。
17:46
BG: One of the arguments
453
1054287
1653
吉桑尼：有一項爭議
17:47
against your point of view
454
1055940
1433
和你的觀點相左，
17:49
is that economic inequality
455
1057373
1442
那就是經濟不平等
17:50
is not only a feature of capitalism
but is actually one of its engines.
but is actually one of its engines.
456
1058815
3637
不只是資本主義的特色，
更是經濟的引擎之一，
更是經濟的引擎之一，
17:54
So we take measures to lower inequality,
457
1062452
2801
因此我們採取手段減少不平等現象，
17:57
and at the same time we lower growth, potentially.
458
1065253
2407
但同時我們也不經意減少了經濟成長，
17:59
What do you answer to that?
459
1067660
1560
你怎麼回應這點呢？
18:01
TP: Yeah, I think inequality
460
1069220
1729
皮凱提：我認為
18:02
is not a problem per se.
461
1070949
1889
不平等本身並不是個問題，
18:04
I think inequality up to a point
462
1072838
2040
我認為不平等某種程度
18:06
can actually be useful for innovation and growth.
463
1074878
2652
對創新跟成長確實能有幫助，
18:09
The problem is, it's a question of degree.
464
1077530
2193
問題是到什麼程度。
18:11
When inequality gets too extreme,
465
1079723
2544
當不平等變得太嚴重，
18:14
then it becomes useless for growth
466
1082267
2889
對經濟成長就會沒有幫助，
18:17
and it can even become bad
467
1085156
1462
而且它還可能有害，
18:18
because it tends to lead to high perpetuation
468
1086618
3057
因為它會導致永久的高度不平等，
18:21
of inequality over time
469
1089675
1636
以及低流動性。
18:23
and low mobility.
470
1091311
1866
18:25
And for instance, the kind of wealth concentrations
471
1093177
3286
舉例來說十九世紀，
18:28
that we had in the 19th century
472
1096463
2877
甚至一直到第一次世界大戰以前
18:31
and pretty much until World War I
473
1099340
1925
發生在歐洲各國的那種財富集中，
18:33
in every European country
474
1101265
1765
我認為對成長是沒有幫助的。
18:35
was, I think, not useful for growth.
475
1103030
2094
18:37
This was destroyed by a combination
476
1105124
2102
財富集中被悲劇事件和政策改變----
18:39
of tragic events and policy changes,
477
1107226
2341
一同摧毀了，
18:41
and this did not prevent growth from happening.
478
1109567
2272
卻未阻擋經濟成長。
18:43
And also, extreme inequality can be bad
479
1111839
3443
而且極度不平均可能
18:47
for our democratic institutions
480
1115282
2198
對我們的民主體制有害，
18:49
if it creates very unequal access to political voice,
481
1117480
2383
如果它造成取得政治發言權的不平等，
18:51
and the influence of private money
482
1119863
1865
還有在美國政治裡
18:53
in U.S. politics, I think,
483
1121728
2002
私人財富的影響力，
18:55
is a matter of concern right now.
484
1123730
2540
我認為那是現在該擔心的事了。
18:58
So we don't want to return to that kind of extreme,
485
1126270
3076
我們不想要回到那種極端，
19:01
pre-World War I inequality.
486
1129346
2090
像第一次世界大戰前那樣的不均。
19:03
Having a decent share of the national wealth
487
1131436
3674
讓中產階級享有適當比例的國家財富---
19:07
for the middle class is not bad for growth.
488
1135110
3390
對經濟成長不是壞事，
19:10
It is actually useful
489
1138500
1281
其實還有助於
19:11
both for equity and efficiency reasons.
490
1139781
3084
公平與效率原則。
19:14
BG: I said at the beginning
491
1142865
1665
吉桑尼：開頭時我曾說
19:16
that your book has been criticized.
492
1144530
2109
你的書不斷被人批評，
19:18
Some of your data has been criticized.
493
1146639
1241
有一些是批評你的資料，
19:19
Some of your choice of data sets has been criticized.
494
1147880
2466
有些是批評你對資料集的選擇，
19:22
You have been accused of cherry-picking data
495
1150346
1876
你被指控只篩選某些資料做案例，---
19:24
to make your case. What do you answer to that?
496
1152222
2737
你要怎麼來回答這個問題呢？
19:26
TP: Well, I answer that I am very happy
497
1154959
1927
皮凱提：我想說我真的很高興
19:28
that this book is stimulating debate.
498
1156886
2467
這本書引起討論，
19:31
This is part of what it is intended for.
499
1159353
2481
因為那也是這本書的目的之一。
19:33
Look, the reason why I put all the data online
500
1161834
3294
我將全部的資料放上網路，
19:37
with all of the detailed computation
501
1165128
1846
包括計算的細節，
19:38
is so that we can have
an open and transparent
an open and transparent
502
1166974
2334
是因為這樣一來我們可以
19:41
debate about this.
503
1169308
1669
公開和透明的辯論。
19:42
So I have responded point by point
504
1170977
1766
所以我已經一一回應
19:44
to every concern.
505
1172743
1792
每一個疑慮，
19:46
Let me say that if I was to rewrite the book today,
506
1174535
3113
讓我這麼說吧，
假使我今天要重寫這本書，
假使我今天要重寫這本書，
19:49
I would actually conclude
507
1177648
1541
我一定會斷言
19:51
that the rise in wealth inequality,
508
1179189
2194
財富不均日益嚴重的情形，
19:53
particularly in the United States,
509
1181383
1927
特別是在美國，
19:55
has been actually higher
than what I report in my book.
than what I report in my book.
510
1183310
2373
已經超過當初我在書中所述。
19:57
There is a recent study by Saez and Zucman
511
1185683
3245
最近賽茲和祖克曼在一項研究中
20:00
showing, with new data
512
1188928
1592
採用的新資料
20:02
which I didn't have at the time of the book,
513
1190520
1777
就是我出書時還沒有的，
20:04
that wealth concentration in the U.S. has risen
514
1192297
2527
研究顯示美國的財富已更加集中，
20:06
even more than what I report.
515
1194824
1936
甚至高過於我所寫的。
20:08
And there will be other data in the future.
516
1196760
2031
未來還會有其他的資料，
20:10
Some of it will go in different directions.
517
1198791
2151
某部分會有不同的走向，
20:12
Look, we put online almost every week
518
1200942
4099
你看，我們幾乎是每週
把資料放上網路，
把資料放上網路，
20:17
new, updated series on the
World Top Income Database
World Top Income Database
519
1205041
2934
將更新的歷程放上全球高所得資料庫，
20:19
and we will keep doing so in the future,
520
1207975
1900
而且我們未來也會繼續這樣做，
20:21
in particular in emerging countries,
521
1209875
2306
特別是在新興國家，
20:24
and I welcome all of those who want to contribute
522
1212181
2929
而我也歡迎所有想要
20:27
to this data collection process.
523
1215110
2346
協助收集資料的人。
20:29
In fact, I certainly agree
524
1217456
2808
事實上我絕對同意
20:32
that there is not enough
525
1220264
1614
財富變動不夠透明，---
20:33
transparency about wealth dynamics,
526
1221878
1878
20:35
and a good way to have better data
527
1223756
1915
取得較佳資料的好方法
20:37
would be to have a wealth tax
528
1225671
1865
就是要有財富稅，
20:39
with a small tax rate to begin with
529
1227536
1571
一開始採取低稅率，
20:41
so that we can all agree
530
1229107
2339
這樣我們都能認同
20:43
about this important evolution
531
1231446
1564
這項重要改革，
20:45
and adapt our policies to whatever we observe.
532
1233010
3327
還有從我們觀察到的來調整政策。
20:48
So taxation is a source of knowledge,
533
1236337
2062
所以稅收是重要的資訊來源，
20:50
and that's what we need the most right now.
534
1238399
2936
而那正是我們現在最需要的。
20:53
BG: Thomas Piketty, merci beaucoup.
535
1241335
1815
吉桑尼：托瑪．皮凱提，
非常感謝（法語）！謝謝你！
非常感謝（法語）！謝謝你！
20:55
Thank you.
TP: Thank you. (Applause)
TP: Thank you. (Applause)
536
1243150
4000
皮凱提：謝謝大家！（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Thomas Piketty - EconomistThomas Piketty is an economist and professor at the Paris School of Economics. His 2014 book, "Capital in the Twenty-first Century," caused a sensation upon publication.
Why you should listen
Is the global economy accelerating toward a future that’s incompatible with democracy? In this provocative talk about inequality and wealth, economist Thomas Piketty provides new context for his groundbreaking book, Capital in the Twenty-First Century.
More profile about the speakerThomas Piketty | Speaker | TED.com