TED2016
Kenneth Lacovara: Hunting for dinosaurs showed me our place in the universe
肯尼斯·拉克維拉: 尋找恐龍的過程對我們在宇宙中的處境的啟示
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發現恐龍後會發生什麼呢？古生物學家 肯尼斯·拉克維拉 詳細講述了他找尋無畏龍 -- 一隻七千七萬年前的，高達兩層樓，重如巨無霸客機的巨獸，並且思索令人難以置信的是，曾在恐龍世界的夾縫中求生存的渺小的哺乳動物，進化成有情感的、有能力研究像恐龍這樣的偉大生物。和他一起通過地球的演化歷史，來深思我們在時間長河中的處境。
Kenneth Lacovara - Paleontologist
In his quest to understand the largest dinosaurs to have walked the Earth, Lacovara blends exploration with the latest imaging and modeling techniques from engineering to medicine. Full bio
In his quest to understand the largest dinosaurs to have walked the Earth, Lacovara blends exploration with the latest imaging and modeling techniques from engineering to medicine. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
How do you find a dinosaur?
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究竟怎樣去尋找恐龍呢？
00:15
Sounds impossible, doesn't it?
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聽起來不太可能，對吧？
00:18
It's not.
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其實不然。
00:19
And the answer relies on a formula
that all paleontologists use.
that all paleontologists use.
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答案依憑一個所有古生物學家
都知道的公式。
都知道的公式。
00:24
And I'm going to tell you the secret.
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而且我將告訴你這個秘密。
00:27
First, find rocks of the right age.
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首先，尋找相應年代的岩石。
00:31
Second, those rocks
must be sedimentary rocks.
must be sedimentary rocks.
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然後，這些岩石必須是沉積岩。
00:35
And third, layers of those rocks
must be naturally exposed.
must be naturally exposed.
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再者，岩石的積層必須是自然暴露的。
00:40
That's it.
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這樣就足夠了。
00:41
Find those three things
and get yourself on the ground,
and get yourself on the ground,
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滿足這三件條件後你就可以動手了，
00:45
chances are good
that you will find fossils.
that you will find fossils.
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你找到化石的機會很大。
00:48
Now let me break down this formula.
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現在我來解析這個公式。
00:50
Organisms exist only during certain
geological intervals.
geological intervals.
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生物只存在於某個特定的地質斷層。
00:55
So you have to find
rocks of the right age,
rocks of the right age,
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所以你必須尋找相應年代的岩石，
00:57
depending on what your interests are.
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依照你的興趣。
00:59
If you want to find trilobites,
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如果你想找三葉蟲，
01:01
you have to find the really,
really old rocks of the Paleozoic --
really old rocks of the Paleozoic --
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那你必須找那些相當古老的
古生代岩石 --
古生代岩石 --
01:04
rocks between a half a billion
and a quarter-billion years old.
and a quarter-billion years old.
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年齡在5億和2.5億之間的岩石。
01:08
Now, if you want to find dinosaurs,
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如果你想要尋找恐龍，
01:10
don't look in the Paleozoic,
you won't find them.
you won't find them.
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就不要在古生代岩石裡找，
你不會找到的。
你不會找到的。
01:12
They hadn't evolved yet.
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它們還未演化。
01:14
You have to find the younger
rocks of the Mesozoic,
rocks of the Mesozoic,
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你要找相對年輕的中生代岩石，
01:17
and in the case of dinosaurs,
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並且是恐龍存活的年代，
01:18
between 235 and 66 million years ago.
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大概是2.35億至6600萬年前。
01:23
Now, it's fairly easy to find rocks
of the right age at this point,
of the right age at this point,
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目前，要尋找適當年代的岩石
還算容易，
還算容易，
01:26
because the Earth is, to a coarse degree,
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大致來說，地球是
01:29
geologically mapped.
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根據地質來繪制的。
01:31
This is hard-won information.
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這是一個得來不易的資訊。
01:34
The annals of Earth history
are written in rocks,
are written in rocks,
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地球的編年史刻寫在岩石裡，
01:37
one chapter upon the next,
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一章接著一章，
01:38
such that the oldest pages are on bottom
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所以最古老的一頁在底層，
01:41
and the youngest on top.
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而最新的在上面。
01:43
Now, were it quite that easy,
geologists would rejoice.
geologists would rejoice.
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好了，如果真那麽容易，
地質學家會欣喜若狂。
地質學家會欣喜若狂。
01:47
It's not.
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可惜不是。
01:48
The library of Earth is an old one.
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地球圖書館很老舊。
01:51
It has no librarian to impose order.
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裡面並沒有管理員維持秩序。
01:54
Operating over vast swaths of time,
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經歷長期運作，
01:57
myriad geological processes
offer every possible insult
offer every possible insult
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任何地質變動過程對於
各時代的地層
各時代的地層
02:02
to the rocks of ages.
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造成各種可能的影響。
02:04
Most pages are destroyed
soon after being written.
soon after being written.
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大部分內容剛寫完後就被破壞了。
02:07
Some pages are overwritten,
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有一些被新的覆蓋，
02:09
creating difficult-to-decipher palimpsests
of long-gone landscapes.
of long-gone landscapes.
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使它難以還原消失已久的地質原貌。
02:14
Pages that do find sanctuary
under the advancing sands of time
under the advancing sands of time
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在如流沙飛逝的時間中倖免的部分，
02:19
are never truly safe.
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也絕非真正安全。
02:21
Unlike the Moon --
our dead, rocky companion --
our dead, rocky companion --
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不像月球 -- 我們死寂的衛星 --
02:24
the Earth is alive, pulsing
with creative and destructive forces
with creative and destructive forces
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地球是活的，充滿著生命力和破壞力，
02:28
that power its geological metabolism.
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為地質的新陳代謝提供動力。
02:31
Lunar rocks brought back
by the Apollo astronauts
by the Apollo astronauts
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阿波羅太空人帶回來的月球岩石，
02:34
all date back to about the age
of the Solar System.
of the Solar System.
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所有數據顯示其有太陽系的年齡。
02:37
Moon rocks are forever.
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月球岩石是永久的。
02:40
Earth rocks, on the other hand,
face the perils of a living lithosphere.
face the perils of a living lithosphere.
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另一方面，地球岩石
面臨著活著的岩石圈的危機。
面臨著活著的岩石圈的危機。
02:45
All will suffer ruination,
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它們都會遭受毀滅，
02:46
through some combination
of mutilation, compression,
of mutilation, compression,
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通過一些合併、毀傷、壓縮、
02:49
folding, tearing, scorching and baking.
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折疊、撕裂、燒灼和烘烤。
02:53
Thus, the volumes of Earth history
are incomplete and disheveled.
are incomplete and disheveled.
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所以，地球的史書
是不完整的和散亂的。
是不完整的和散亂的。
02:59
The library is vast and magnificent --
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這個圖書館是廣闊而壯麗的 --
03:03
but decrepit.
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卻也是衰老的。
03:06
And it was this tattered complexity
in the rock record
in the rock record
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同時岩石擁有它破碎的複雜的記錄，
03:09
that obscured its meaning
until relatively recently.
until relatively recently.
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隱藏了它的涵義直到近代。
03:13
Nature provided no card catalog
for geologists --
for geologists --
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大自然沒有提供卡片式目錄
給地質學家 --
給地質學家 --
03:15
this would have to be invented.
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這需要我們去編寫。
03:18
Five thousand years after the Sumerians
learned to record their thoughts
learned to record their thoughts
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在蘇美爾人學會
將他們的想法記錄在泥板上
將他們的想法記錄在泥板上
03:21
on clay tablets,
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的五千年後，
03:22
the Earth's volumes remained
inscrutable to humans.
inscrutable to humans.
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地球這本冊子對人類來說
仍然是高深莫測的。
仍然是高深莫測的。
03:26
We were geologically illiterate,
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我們對地質學知之甚少，
03:29
unaware of the antiquity
of our own planet
of our own planet
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對我們星球的歷史也了解不多
03:32
and ignorant of our connection
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並忽略了我們與
03:34
to deep time.
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古老時期的聯繫。
03:37
It wasn't until the turn
of the 19th century
of the 19th century
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直到19世紀之後，
03:40
that our blinders were removed,
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我們眼罩的才被拿掉，
03:42
first, with the publication
of James Hutton's "Theory of the Earth,"
of James Hutton's "Theory of the Earth,"
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首先，詹姆斯·赫頓的《地球學說》問世，
03:47
in which he told us that the Earth
reveals no vestige of a beginning
reveals no vestige of a beginning
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書中提到地球的起源無跡可尋，
03:50
and no prospect of an end;
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終結也無法預測，
03:53
and then, with the printing
of William Smith's map of Britain,
of William Smith's map of Britain,
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而後，威廉·史密斯編繪出英國地圖，
03:57
the first country-scale geological map,
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這首張國家疆域的地質圖，
03:59
giving us for the first time
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讓我們第一次
對特定年代岩石的分佈進行預測。
04:01
predictive insight into where
certain types of rocks might occur.
certain types of rocks might occur.
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因此，你可以說：
04:05
After that, you could say things like,
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「如果去那裡，我們會進入侏羅紀。」
04:07
"If we go over there,
we should be in the Jurassic,"
we should be in the Jurassic,"
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「翻過這座山丘，
我們應該會找到白堊紀。」
我們應該會找到白堊紀。」
04:10
or, "If we go up over that hill,
we should find the Cretaceous."
we should find the Cretaceous."
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04:15
So now, if you want to find trilobites,
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那如果你想尋找三葉蟲，
04:18
get yourself a good geological map
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那就準備一張好的地圖
04:20
and go to the rocks of the Paleozoic.
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然後找尋古生代的岩石。
04:23
If you want to find dinosaurs like I do,
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如果你想像我一樣去想找尋恐龍，
04:25
find the rocks of Mesozoic and go there.
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那就要找到中生代的岩石。
04:29
Now of course, you can only make
a fossil in a sedimentary rock,
a fossil in a sedimentary rock,
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當然，化石只會出現在沉積岩中，
04:32
a rock made by sand and mud.
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這種岩石由沙和泥土組成。
04:34
You can't have a fossil
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化石不會出現在
04:35
in an igneous rock formed
by magma, like a granite,
by magma, like a granite,
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像花崗岩這類
由岩漿組成的火成岩中，
由岩漿組成的火成岩中，
04:39
or in a metamorphic rock
that's been heated and squeezed.
that's been heated and squeezed.
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或是經高溫擠壓而形成的變質岩中。
04:42
And you have to get yourself in a desert.
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而且你要去沙漠。
04:45
It's not that dinosaurs
particularly lived in deserts;
particularly lived in deserts;
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並不是恐龍只生活在沙漠裡；
04:48
they lived on every land mass
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它們可生活在任何陸地上
04:50
and in every imaginable environment.
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和任何可想像到的環境中。
04:52
It's that you need to go to a place
that's a desert today,
that's a desert today,
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你需要去沙漠，
04:55
a place that doesn't have
too many plants covering up the rocks,
too many plants covering up the rocks,
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這樣岩石就不會被植被覆蓋，
04:58
and a place where erosion is always
exposing new bones at the surface.
exposing new bones at the surface.
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而且在那裡，侵蝕會讓新的岩層暴露。
05:03
So find those three things:
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所以，具備這三個條件：
05:04
rocks of the right age,
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特定年代的岩石，
05:06
that are sedimentary rocks, in a desert,
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沙漠裡的沉積岩，
05:09
and get yourself on the ground,
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然後你站在沙漠上，
05:11
and you literally walk
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一直走，
05:12
until you see a bone
sticking out of the rock.
sticking out of the rock.
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直到看見有骨骼化石突出岩層。
05:16
Here's a picture that I took
in Southern Patagonia.
in Southern Patagonia.
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這是張南巴塔哥尼亞的照片。
05:20
Every pebble that you see
on the ground there
on the ground there
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地上的每個石子
05:23
is a piece of dinosaur bone.
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都是一塊恐龍骨骼化石。
05:25
So when you're in that right situation,
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所以在那個情況下，
05:27
it's not a question of whether
you'll find fossils or not;
you'll find fossils or not;
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問題不是能否找到化石，
05:30
you're going to find fossils.
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你一定會找到的。
05:31
The question is: Will you find something
that is scientifically significant?
that is scientifically significant?
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問題是，找到的
是否對科學研究有意義？
是否對科學研究有意義？
05:35
And to help with that, I'm going to add
a fourth part to our formula,
a fourth part to our formula,
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所以，為了解決此問題，
我會在方法中增加第四步，
我會在方法中增加第四步，
05:39
which is this:
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那就是：
05:41
get as far away from other
paleontologists as possible.
paleontologists as possible.
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離其他的古生物學家越遠越好。
05:44
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
05:46
It's not that I don't like
other paleontologists.
other paleontologists.
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並不是我不喜歡他們。
05:49
When you go to a place
that's relatively unexplored,
that's relatively unexplored,
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而是當你去到一個
相對未探索的地方時，
相對未探索的地方時，
05:51
you have a much better chance
of not only finding fossils
of not only finding fossils
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不僅有更大機會找到化石，
05:54
but of finding something
that's new to science.
that's new to science.
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而且還可能在科學上有所新發現。
05:57
So that's my formula
for finding dinosaurs,
for finding dinosaurs,
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這就是我尋找恐龍的秘方，
05:59
and I've applied it all around the world.
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而且我曾在世界各地用過。
06:01
In the austral summer of 2004,
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在2004年南半球的夏季，
06:04
I went to the bottom of South America,
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我前往南美洲的最南端，
06:06
to the bottom of Patagonia, Argentina,
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阿根廷的巴塔哥尼亞的南部，
06:08
to prospect for dinosaurs:
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去尋找恐龍：
06:10
a place that had terrestrial
sedimentary rocks of the right age,
sedimentary rocks of the right age,
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那個有特定年代的陸生沉積岩的地方，
06:13
in a desert,
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位於沙漠中，
06:15
a place that had been barely visited
by paleontologists.
by paleontologists.
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而且是古生物學家甚少探訪之地。
06:19
And we found this.
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我們找到這個。
06:21
This is a femur, a thigh bone,
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一條股骨，一條大腿骨，
06:23
of a giant, plant-eating dinosaur.
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是屬於一隻巨型草食恐龍。
06:25
That bone is 2.2 meters across.
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那骨頭有2.2米長。
06:28
That's over seven feet long.
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差不多超過7英尺。
06:31
Now, unfortunately,
that bone was isolated.
that bone was isolated.
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但不幸的是，那條股骨是孤立的。
06:33
We dug and dug and dug,
and there wasn't another bone around.
and there wasn't another bone around.
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我們不斷的挖，可都沒有其他發現。
06:36
But it made us hungry to go back
the next year for more.
the next year for more.
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但它卻吸引著我們
次年返回繼續探尋。
次年返回繼續探尋。
06:39
And on the first day
of that next field season,
of that next field season,
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而在新探索開展的當天，
06:42
I found this: another two-meter femur,
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我找到這個：另一條兩米長的股骨，
06:45
only this time not isolated,
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這次它並不是獨立的，
06:47
this time associated with 145 other bones
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它與其他145塊巨型草食恐龍骨頭
06:50
of a giant plant eater.
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連在一起。
06:53
And after three more hard,
really brutal field seasons,
really brutal field seasons,
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而在三段艱難的挖掘季之後，
06:57
the quarry came to look like this.
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現場變成這樣。
06:59
And there you see the tail
of that great beast wrapping around me.
of that great beast wrapping around me.
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你可以看見那隻巨獸的尾巴
卷曲著在我身邊。
卷曲著在我身邊。
07:03
The giant that lay in this grave,
the new species of dinosaur,
the new species of dinosaur,
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躺在這裡的巨獸是恐龍新品種，
07:07
we would eventually call
"Dreadnoughtus schrani."
"Dreadnoughtus schrani."
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最後它被命名為「許蘭氏無畏龍」。
07:11
Dreadnoughtus was 85 feet
from snout to tail.
from snout to tail.
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無畏龍從鼻到尾長85尺。
07:15
It stood two-and-a-half stories
at the shoulder,
at the shoulder,
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它站立時肩部達兩層半樓高，
07:18
and all fleshed out in life,
it weighed 65 tons.
it weighed 65 tons.
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活著時體重有65噸。
07:23
People ask me sometimes,
"Was Dreadnoughtus bigger than a T. rex?"
"Was Dreadnoughtus bigger than a T. rex?"
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人們有時會問，
「無畏龍是否比暴龍大？」
「無畏龍是否比暴龍大？」
07:26
That's the mass of eight or nine T. rex.
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事實它有八到九個暴龍那麼大。
07:30
Now, one of the really cool things
about being a paleontologist
about being a paleontologist
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有一個作為古生物學家很酷的事是
07:33
is when you find a new species,
you get to name it.
you get to name it.
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你可以命名你發現的新品種。
07:36
And I've always thought it a shame
that these giant, plant-eating dinosaurs
that these giant, plant-eating dinosaurs
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而我一直很介意大型草食恐龍
07:40
are too often portrayed as passive,
lumbering platters of meat
lumbering platters of meat
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常被描述成大是自然景觀中
被動、笨重的盤中肉。
07:44
on the landscape.
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07:46
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
07:47
They're not.
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它們絕非那樣。
07:48
Big herbivores can be surly,
and they can be territorial --
and they can be territorial --
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大型草食動物也可能脾氣暴躁，
也可以稱霸一方 --
也可以稱霸一方 --
07:51
you do not want to mess with a hippo
or a rhino or a water buffalo.
or a rhino or a water buffalo.
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你不會想與河馬，犀牛或水牛亂來。
07:56
The bison in Yellowstone injure
far more people than do the grizzly bears.
far more people than do the grizzly bears.
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黃石國家公園裡的野牛
遠比灰熊傷了更多人。
遠比灰熊傷了更多人。
08:01
So can you imagine a big bull,
65-ton Dreadnoughtus
65-ton Dreadnoughtus
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所以你可以想像一隻重65噸
如大公牛般的無畏龍
如大公牛般的無畏龍
08:07
in the breeding season,
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在繁殖季節
08:08
defending a territory?
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1500
堅守領地的情景嗎？
08:10
That animal would have been
incredibly dangerous,
incredibly dangerous,
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2320
它會變得極度危險，
08:13
a menace to all around, and itself
would have had nothing to fear.
would have had nothing to fear.
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它毫無畏懼並對周圍造成威脅。
08:18
And thus the name, "Dreadnoughtus,"
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所以獲名「無畏龍」，
08:20
or, "fears nothing."
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「無所畏懼」。
08:24
Now, to grow so large,
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然而，要擁有如此大的體形，
08:25
an animal like Dreadnoughtus
would've had to have been
would've had to have been
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像無畏龍這樣的動物
必須很高效。
08:27
a model of efficiency.
169
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1157
08:29
That long neck and long tail help it
radiate heat into the environment,
radiate heat into the environment,
170
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它長長的脖子和尾巴可幫助散熱，
08:32
passively controlling its temperature.
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起到控溫作用。
08:35
And that long neck also serves
as a super-efficient feeding mechanism.
as a super-efficient feeding mechanism.
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而其長脖也是個高效的進食機制。
08:38
Dreadnoughtus could stand
in one place and with that neck
in one place and with that neck
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無畏龍站在原地，
08:41
clear out a huge envelope of vegetation,
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移動脖子就能清乾淨大片的植被，
08:44
taking in tens of thousands of calories
while expending very few.
while expending very few.
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攝取大量的熱量，同時卻消耗無幾。
08:48
And these animals evolved
a bulldog-like wide-gait stance,
a bulldog-like wide-gait stance,
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這些動物演化成
鬥牛犬般的寬步姿態，
鬥牛犬般的寬步姿態，
08:52
giving them immense stability,
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1815
讓它們穩定性更好，
08:55
because when you're 65 tons,
when you're literally as big as a house,
when you're literally as big as a house,
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因為當你有65噸重，
如房子一樣大時，
如房子一樣大時，
08:59
the penalty for falling over
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跌倒的懲罰
09:01
is death.
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是死亡。
09:03
Yeah, these animals are big and tough,
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1905
是的，這些動物又大又堅硬，
09:05
but they won't take a blow like that.
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但它們受不了那樣的一擊。
09:07
Dreadnoughtus falls over,
ribs break and pierce lungs.
ribs break and pierce lungs.
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無畏龍倒下後，肋骨破裂，
同時刺穿肺部，
同時刺穿肺部，
09:10
Organs burst.
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內臟爆裂。
09:11
If you're a big 65-ton Dreadnoughtus,
185
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如果你是一隻65噸重的無畏龍，
09:13
you don't get to fall down
in life -- even once.
in life -- even once.
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你不會想跌倒 -- 一次也不想。
09:17
Now, after this particular
Dreadnoughtus carcass was buried
Dreadnoughtus carcass was buried
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好了，在這隻無畏龍的軀體被掩埋，
09:21
and de-fleshed by a multitude
of bacteria, worms and insects,
of bacteria, worms and insects,
188
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4720
肉被細菌，蠕蟲和昆蟲饞食分解後，
09:25
its bones underwent a brief metamorphosis,
189
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2165
骨頭轉變型態，
09:28
exchanging molecules with the groundwater
190
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2016
與地下水進行分子交換，
09:30
and becoming more and more
like the entombing rock.
like the entombing rock.
191
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2618
變得越來越像周圍的岩石。
09:33
As layer upon layer
of sediment accumulated,
of sediment accumulated,
192
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當一層層的泥沙累積起來，
09:36
pressure from all sides
weighed in like a stony glove
weighed in like a stony glove
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四周的壓力就像石手套向中心施壓，
09:38
whose firm and enduring grip held
each bone in a stabilizing embrace.
each bone in a stabilizing embrace.
194
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5625
牢固持久的握住每一塊骨頭，
緊緊的包裹住。
緊緊的包裹住。
09:45
And then came the long ...
195
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1650
然後就是漫長的......
09:48
nothing.
196
576044
1229
什麼都沒發生。
09:49
Epoch after epoch of sameness,
197
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3318
一代又一代，一直一樣，
09:53
nonevents without number.
198
581210
1944
數不清的沒事發生。
09:55
All the while, the skeleton lay
everlasting and unchanging
everlasting and unchanging
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3422
同時， 骸骨保持永恆不變，
09:58
in perfect equilibrium
200
586947
2363
完美的平衡狀態，
10:01
within its rocky grave.
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1713
在它的石棺中。
10:03
Meanwhile, Earth history unfolded above.
202
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2017
同時，地球的歷史展開了。
10:06
The dinosaurs would reign
for another 12 million years
for another 12 million years
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2647
恐龍又统治1200萬年，
10:08
before their hegemony was snuffed out
in a fiery apocalypse.
in a fiery apocalypse.
204
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4264
它們的霸權
才在一場曠世浩劫中終結。
才在一場曠世浩劫中終結。
10:13
The continents drifted. The mammals rose.
205
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2678
而後大陸漂移。哺乳類動物崛起。
10:16
The Ice Age came.
206
604244
1371
冰河時期到來。
10:18
And then, in East Africa,
207
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2247
然後，在東非，
10:20
an unpromising species of ape
evolved the odd trick of sentient thought.
evolved the odd trick of sentient thought.
208
608894
5612
一種看來沒出息的猿類
出奇地在有情思維中進化出來。
出奇地在有情思維中進化出來。
10:27
These brainy primates were not
particularly fast or strong.
particularly fast or strong.
209
615752
3452
這些聰明的靈長類
並非特別快速或強壯。
並非特別快速或強壯。
10:32
But they excelled at covering ground,
210
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2206
但它們擅長佔領土地，
10:34
and in a remarkable diaspora
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1869
並利用出色的散居的方式，
10:36
surpassing even the dinosaurs' record
of territorial conquest,
of territorial conquest,
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3142
超越恐龍征服領土的紀錄，
10:39
they dispersed across the planet,
213
627351
1930
它們分佈在地球每一處，
10:41
ravishing every ecosystem
they encountered,
they encountered,
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629305
3180
強佔了每一個遇到的生態系統，
10:44
along the way, inventing culture
and metalworking and painting
and metalworking and painting
215
632509
3181
在過程中，它們創造出
文化、金工、繪畫、
文化、金工、繪畫、
10:47
and dance and music
216
635714
1342
舞蹈、音樂、
10:49
and science
217
637786
1214
還有科學，
10:51
and rocket ships that would eventually
take 12 particularly excellent apes
take 12 particularly excellent apes
218
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4529
並用火箭載著12位特別傑出的猿人，
10:56
to the surface of the Moon.
219
644346
1851
飛到月球表面。
11:00
With seven billion peripatetic
Homo sapiens on the planet,
Homo sapiens on the planet,
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648900
3639
有七十億人類在地球上來回走動，
11:05
it was perhaps inevitable
221
653253
1217
最終難免
11:06
that one of them would eventually
trod on the grave of the magnificent titan
trod on the grave of the magnificent titan
222
654494
4038
會有人踏上這巨獸的墳墓，
11:10
buried beneath the badlands
of Southern Patagonia.
of Southern Patagonia.
223
658556
2952
在南巴塔哥尼亞貧瘠的地表下。
11:14
I was that ape.
224
662614
1251
我就是那個猿人。
11:17
And standing there, alone in the desert,
225
665038
2943
獨自站在那片沙漠上，
11:20
it was not lost on me
226
668640
1151
我沒有忘記，
11:21
that the chance of any one individual
entering the fossil record
entering the fossil record
227
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3630
每個人遇到化石的機會，
11:25
is vanishingly small.
228
673469
1673
是十分渺小的。
11:28
But the Earth is very, very old.
229
676039
2048
但地球非常的古老。
11:30
And over vast tracts of time,
the improbable becomes the probable.
the improbable becomes the probable.
230
678111
4260
而經過漫長的時間隧道，
不可能成為可能。
不可能成為可能。
11:34
That's the magic of the geological record.
231
682395
2691
這就是地理的魔力。
11:37
Thus, multitudinous creatures
living and dying on an old planet
living and dying on an old planet
232
685110
3182
然而，大量的生物
在這顆古老的星球上生存死亡
在這顆古老的星球上生存死亡
11:40
leave behind immense numbers of fossils,
233
688316
1927
留下了大量的化石，
11:42
each one a small miracle,
234
690267
1642
每一個體都是小小的奇蹟，
11:44
but collectively, inevitable.
235
692691
2533
但集體而言，則是必然的。
11:48
Sixty-six million years ago,
an asteroid hits the Earth
an asteroid hits the Earth
236
696572
2873
六千六百萬年前，
一顆小行星撞擊地球
一顆小行星撞擊地球
11:51
and wipes out the dinosaurs.
237
699953
1683
導致恐龍滅絕。
11:54
This easily might not have been.
238
702771
1928
再來一次，這很可能不會發生。
11:57
But we only get one history,
and it's the one that we have.
and it's the one that we have.
239
705312
2855
我們只有一個歷史，
就是現在我們所有的。
就是現在我們所有的。
12:00
But this particular reality
was not inevitable.
was not inevitable.
240
708191
2276
但是這個特定的現實
不是必然會發生的。
不是必然會發生的。
12:02
The tiniest perturbation
of that asteroid far from Earth
of that asteroid far from Earth
241
710491
2802
任何對那顆遙遠小隕石
施加的微小擾動
施加的微小擾動
12:05
would have caused it to miss
our planet by a wide margin.
our planet by a wide margin.
242
713317
3001
也能使它遠遠的錯過地球。
12:08
The pivotal, calamitous day during which
the dinosaurs were wiped out,
the dinosaurs were wiped out,
243
716754
3353
關鍵、災難、滅絕恐龍的那一天，
12:12
setting the stage
for the modern world as we know it
for the modern world as we know it
244
720131
3211
打造了我們熟知的現代世界，
12:15
didn't have to be.
245
723366
1532
並不必然發生。
12:16
It could've just been another day --
246
724922
1965
它也可以是另外一天 --
12:19
a Thursday, perhaps --
247
727443
1341
也許是星期四 --
12:21
among the 63 billion days
already enjoyed by the dinosaurs.
already enjoyed by the dinosaurs.
248
729856
4927
在恐龍已經享有的
六百三十億個日子中的一天。
六百三十億個日子中的一天。
12:27
But over geological time,
249
735313
1385
但是在地理時間中，
12:28
improbable, nearly impossible events
250
736722
2885
這不可能的，幾乎是不可能的事情
12:31
do occur.
251
739631
1151
確實發生了。
12:32
Along the path from our wormy,
Cambrian ancestors
Cambrian ancestors
252
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2923
從我們低賤的寒武紀祖先，
12:35
to primates dressed in suits,
253
743753
2403
到西裝革履的人類，
12:38
innumerable forks in the road
led us to this very particular reality.
led us to this very particular reality.
254
746180
4881
無數條分岔路
引領我們到這個特定的現實。
引領我們到這個特定的現實。
12:43
The bones of Dreadnoughtus
lay underground for 77 million years.
lay underground for 77 million years.
255
751982
4092
無畏龍的骨骸躺在地下
已七千七百萬年。
已七千七百萬年。
12:48
Who could have imagined
256
756899
1171
誰又能想像到
12:50
that a single species of shrew-like mammal
257
758094
2964
那如同潑婦一般的哺乳動物
12:53
living in the cracks of the dinosaur world
258
761082
2044
在恐龍時期只能在夾縫中求生存
12:55
would evolve into sentient beings
259
763150
2052
如今已進化成有智慧的生物，
12:57
capable of characterizing
and understanding
and understanding
260
765226
2356
能分析和理解
12:59
the very dinosaurs they must have dreaded?
261
767606
3007
當初會讓他們懼怕的恐龍們。
13:04
I once stood at the head
of the Missouri River
of the Missouri River
262
772775
3023
我曾站在密蘇里河的源頭
13:09
and bestraddled it.
263
777107
1381
然後跨過它。
13:11
There, it's nothing more
than a gurgle of water
than a gurgle of water
264
779123
2202
在那裡，它只不過是涓涓細流，
13:13
that issues forth from beneath a rock
in a boulder in a pasture,
in a boulder in a pasture,
265
781349
4611
從比特魯特山脈高處
一處牧場裡的一塊岩石下
一處牧場裡的一塊岩石下
13:17
high in the Bitterroot Mountains.
266
785984
1697
所流出的一股水流。
13:20
The stream next to it
runs a few hundred yards
runs a few hundred yards
267
788165
2392
它旁邊的小水流僅奔流了幾百碼
13:23
and ends in a small pond.
268
791407
1452
就注入在一個小池子裡。
13:25
Those two streams -- they look identical.
269
793970
2897
這兩條看似相似的水流
13:29
But one is an anonymous trickle of water,
270
797732
2539
卻一條默默無聞，
13:32
and the other is the Missouri River.
271
800295
2269
另一條則是密蘇里河。
13:35
Now go down to the mouth
of the Missouri, near St. Louis,
of the Missouri, near St. Louis,
272
803667
3497
順流而下來到密蘇里河
靠近聖路易斯的河口，
靠近聖路易斯的河口，
13:39
and it's pretty obvious
that that river is a big deal.
that that river is a big deal.
273
807188
2717
顯然這是條大河。
13:42
But go up into the Bitterroots
and look at the Missouri,
and look at the Missouri,
274
810640
2714
但回到比特魯特山脈來看它，
13:45
and human prospection does not
allow us to see it as anything special.
allow us to see it as anything special.
275
813378
4470
以人類的眼界
並不能察覺到它的特殊性。
並不能察覺到它的特殊性。
13:51
Now go back to the Cretaceous Period
276
819030
1954
再講回白堊紀
13:53
and look at our tiny, fuzzball ancestors.
277
821008
2445
看看我們渺小，毛球般的祖先。
13:55
You would never guess
278
823477
1437
你絕不能猜到
13:56
that they would amount
to anything special,
to anything special,
279
824938
2077
他們將會特別有出息；
13:59
and they probably wouldn't have,
280
827039
1648
若非那塊討厭的隕石，
14:00
were it not for that pesky asteroid.
281
828711
2237
他們應該不會有。
14:03
Now, make a thousand more worlds
and a thousand more solar systems
and a thousand more solar systems
282
831797
3361
現在，就算另造一千個世界，
和另外一千個太陽系，
和另外一千個太陽系，
14:07
and let them run.
283
835182
1286
讓他們發展，
14:09
You will never get the same result.
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你永遠不會得到一樣的結果。
14:11
No doubt, those worlds would be
both amazing and amazingly improbable,
both amazing and amazingly improbable,
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無庸置疑，這些世界會同樣精彩，
令人難以置信，
令人難以置信，
14:14
but they would not be our world
and they would not have our history.
and they would not have our history.
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但是它們不可能有與我們相同的歷史。
14:17
There are an infinite number of histories
that we could've had.
that we could've had.
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這裡有無窮我們可能經歷的歷史，
14:20
We only get one, and wow,
did we ever get a good one.
did we ever get a good one.
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而我們只能有一個，哇，
我們所得到的真好。
我們所得到的真好。
14:23
Dinosaurs like Dreadnoughtus were real.
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恐龍，像無畏龍是真實存在過的。
14:27
Sea monsters like the mosasaur were real.
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海怪，像滄龍也是真實存在過的。
14:31
Dragonflies with the wingspan of an eagle
and pill bugs the length of a car
and pill bugs the length of a car
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有著老鷹般翅膀的蜻蜓，
和如同汽車般大的蟲子
和如同汽車般大的蟲子
14:35
really existed.
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也存在過。
14:39
Why study the ancient past?
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為什麼要研究古老的過去？
14:42
Because it gives us perspective
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因為它讓我們展望未來
14:45
and humility.
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並學會謙遜。
14:46
The dinosaurs died in the world's
fifth mass extinction,
fifth mass extinction,
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恐龍在世界第五次大滅絕中滅亡，
14:50
snuffed out in a cosmic accident
through no fault of their own.
through no fault of their own.
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它們死於天災而並非自己的過錯。
14:55
They didn't see it coming,
and they didn't have a choice.
and they didn't have a choice.
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它們無法預見災難的發生，
也沒得選。
也沒得選。
15:00
We, on the other hand, do have a choice.
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另一方面，我們是可以選擇的。
15:03
And the nature of the fossil record
tells us that our place on this planet
tells us that our place on this planet
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化石揭露了人類在地球的處境
15:07
is both precarious
and potentially fleeting.
and potentially fleeting.
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危機重重，同時可能轉瞬即逝。
15:11
Right now, our species is propagating
an environmental disaster
an environmental disaster
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目前，人類正大規模傳佈生態災難
15:14
of geological proportions
that is so broad and so severe,
that is so broad and so severe,
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這是場廣泛和嚴重的全球性災難，
15:18
it can rightly be called
the sixth extinction.
the sixth extinction.
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絕對可以稱作第六次大滅絕。
15:22
Only unlike the dinosaurs,
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但唯一不同於恐龍的是，
15:25
we can see it coming.
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我們能看到它即將來臨。
15:27
And unlike the dinosaurs,
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並且，不像恐龍，
15:29
we can do something about it.
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我們可以做些什麼。
15:32
That choice is ours.
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如何選擇在於我們。
15:35
Thank you.
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謝謝。
15:36
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Kenneth Lacovara - PaleontologistIn his quest to understand the largest dinosaurs to have walked the Earth, Lacovara blends exploration with the latest imaging and modeling techniques from engineering to medicine.
Why you should listen
Paleontologist Kenneth Lacovara famously unearthed some of the largest dinosaurs ever to walk our planet, including the super-massive Dreadnoughtus, which at 65 tons weighs more than seven T.Rex.
When he's not excavating fossils from far-flung locations, Lacovara works on the cutting edge of applying 21st-century technology to the study of dinosaurs. By using 3D imaging, 3D printing, robotics, and medical modeling techniques, his work is helping to shift our perspective of giant herbivorous dinosaurs from their historic portrayal as hapless lumbering prey to that of fearsome, hulking, hyper-efficient eating machines.
Lacovara led the effort to create the Rowan University Fossil Park in suburban Mantua Township, New Jersey. The quarry preserves a rich cache of marine fossils that Lacovara is using to shed light on the calamitous events that wiped out the dinosaurs.
Kenneth Lacovara | Speaker | TED.com