TEDIndia 2009
Sendhil Mullainathan: Solving social problems with a nudge
山迪．穆蘭納森：為解決社會問題再加把勁
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麥克阿瑟獎得主山迪．穆蘭納森，以行為經濟學家的角度，研究了一系列難以解決的社會問題，那些問題早有解法，但卻依然存在。我們知道如何降低孩童痢疾死亡率，如何避免糖尿病所引發的失明，也知道如何導入太陽能電池科技，但不知為何，我們就是辦不到，或是無法做到，為什麼會這樣？
Sendhil Mullainathan - Behavioral economist
Sendhil Mullainathan asks a compelling question: what are the irrational choices we make that perpetuate poverty, corruption, discrimination? Full bio
Sendhil Mullainathan asks a compelling question: what are the irrational choices we make that perpetuate poverty, corruption, discrimination? Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
As a researcher, every once in a while
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身為一個研究人員，
00:18
you encounter something
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每過一陣子，總是會遇到
00:20
a little disconcerting.
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一些令人驚訝的事，
00:22
And this is something that changes your understanding of the world around you,
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這些事會改變你對週遭世界的認知，
00:25
and teaches you that you're very wrong
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讓你瞭解你以往所深信的某些事，
00:27
about something that you really believed firmly in.
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其實是大錯特錯。
00:31
And these are unfortunate moments,
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我認為遇到這種事其實不好過，
00:34
because you go to sleep that night
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因為你會覺得自己
00:36
dumber than when you woke up.
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比前一天又笨了一點。
00:39
So, that's really the goal of my talk,
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這就是我今天演說的目的，
00:41
is to A, communicate that moment to you
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第一，和你們談談那些不好過的經驗，
00:43
and B, have you leave this session
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第二，希望你們在離開會場時，
00:45
a little dumber than when you entered.
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會變得比之前更笨一點。
00:47
So, I hope I can really accomplish that.
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我希望我能達成這二個目標。
00:50
So, this incident that I'm going to describe
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我要談的這件事，
00:53
really began with some diarrhea.
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其實可以從痢疾談起。
00:56
Now, we've known for a long time the cause of diarrhea.
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我們早就知道痢疾是怎麼引起的，
00:59
That's why there's a glass of water up there.
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所以我放了一張一杯水的投影片在上面。
01:02
For us, it's a problem, the people in this room.
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對我們在座的各位來說，那不就只是個健康問題而已，
01:04
For babies, it's deadly.
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但是對小嬰兒來說，卻有可能致命，
01:07
They lack nutrients, and diarrhea dehydrates them.
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因為他們吸收不到養份，痢疾還會使他們脫水，
01:11
And so, as a result, there is a lot of death,
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因此造成了極高的死亡率，
01:13
a lot of death.
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很多嬰兒死亡。
01:16
In India in 1960,
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在1960代的印度，
01:18
there was a 24 percent child mortality rate,
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孩童的死亡率是24%，
01:20
lots of people didn't make it. This is incredibly unfortunate.
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很多小孩熬不過去，真的很不幸！
01:24
One of the big reasons this happened was
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死亡率居高不下的主要原因，
01:26
because of diarrhea.
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就是痢疾。
01:28
Now, there was a big effort to solve this problem,
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現在，有很多人致力於改善這個問題，
01:31
and there was actually a big solution.
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也有很有效的解決方法，
01:35
This solution has been called, by some,
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有人稱這個方法為：
01:37
"potentially the most important medical
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「有可能是本世紀最重要的
01:39
advance this century."
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醫學突破」。
01:42
Now, the solution turned out to be simple.
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這個方法出奇地簡單，
01:45
And what it was was oral rehydration salts.
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就是使用口服補液鹽，
01:49
Many of you have probably used this.
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在座各位可能有使用過，
01:51
It's brilliant. It's a way to get sodium
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那真是一個好方法！裡面混合了
01:53
and glucose together so that when you add it to water
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鈉與葡萄糖，所以當我們摻入水中，
01:56
the child is able to absorb it even during situations of diarrhea.
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孩子們即使感染了痢疾，還是能夠吸收到這些養份。
01:59
Remarkable impact on mortality.
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這大幅降低了孩童死亡率，
02:03
Massive solution to the problem.
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並大幅改善了這個問題。
02:05
Flash forward: 1960, 24 percent child mortality
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讓我們看看，1960年代有24%的孩童死亡率，
02:08
has dropped to 6.5 percent today.
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現在已經降到了6.5%了，
02:10
Still a big number, but a big drop.
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雖然比率還是很高，但已經下降了許多。
02:13
It looks like the technological problem is solved.
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看起來這個問題的技術面已經克服了，
02:16
But if you look, even today
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但是，如果我們看看今天的狀況，
02:18
there are about 400,000 diarrhea-related deaths
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在印度，仍然有40萬人死於
02:20
in India alone.
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痢疾相關的疾病，
02:22
What's going on here?
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究竟是怎麼回事？
02:24
Well the easy answer is, we just haven't gotten those salts
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不用想也知道，就是我們沒有提供那些鹽
02:27
to those people.
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給需要的人啊...
02:29
That's actually not true.
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這個想法不對，
02:31
If you look in areas where these salts are completely available,
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如果你仔細觀察，你會發現這種鹽到處都買得到，
02:34
the price is low or zero, these deaths still continue abated.
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價格也很低，甚至不用錢，但是死亡率還是很高。
02:37
Maybe there's a biological answer.
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或許是生物學上的問題吧？
02:39
Maybe these are the deaths that simple rehydration
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或許他們純粹是因為脫水
02:41
alone doesn't solve. That's not true either.
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而沒有辦法醫治好？這也不對。
02:44
Many of these deaths were completely preventable,
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大部分痢疾患者的死亡都是可以避免的，
02:49
and this what I want to think of as the disconcerting thing,
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這就是我所說的令人驚訝的事，
02:52
what I want to call "the last mile" problem.
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也就是我稱之為「最後一哩」的問題。
02:54
See, we spent a lot of energy, in many domains --
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我們在不同的領域裡都投注了相當多的精力，
02:58
technological, scientific, hard work,
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不管是科技、科學、勞動、
03:00
creativity, human ingenuity --
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創造或工藝等，
03:02
to crack important social problems with technology solutions.
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我們都運用了科技來解決這些重要的社會問題。
03:06
That's been the discoveries of the last 2,000 years,
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我們近二千年來都是這麼做，
03:08
that's mankind moving forward.
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是人性推動著我們往前邁進。
03:10
But in this case we cracked it,
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但我們在處理痢疾這個問題時，
03:13
but a big part of the problem still remains.
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卻仍有一大部分的問題沒有解決；
03:15
Nine hundred and ninety-nine miles went well,
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前面那999哩路我們都走得很順暢，
03:17
the last mile's proving incredibly stubborn.
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但最後那一哩路卻顯得異常艱難。
03:20
Now, that's for oral rehydration therapy.
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我們運用口服補液療法來治療痢疾，
03:24
Maybe this is something unique about diarrhea.
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但或許這種痢疾特別難治，
03:26
Well, it turns out -- and this is where things get really disconcerting --
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可是我們發現了驚人的事實，
03:28
it's not unique to diarrhea.
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這種痢疾並不算特別，
03:30
It's not even unique to poor people in India.
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在印度的窮人間算是很普遍的。
03:32
Here's an example from a variety of contexts.
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我要舉一個綜合了多種元素的例子，
03:35
I've put a bunch of examples up here.
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我會把各種例子都放在上面，
03:37
I'll start with insulin, diabetes
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就先從美國治療
03:40
medication in the U.S.
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糖尿病的胰島素開始談起吧。
03:42
OK, the American population.
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好，先談美國的人口結構，
03:44
On Medicaid -- if you're fairly poor you get Medicaid,
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如果你是個很窮的美國人，你可以靠醫療補助取得胰島素，
03:46
or if you have health insurance -- insulin is pretty straightforward.
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或如果你有醫療保險的話，你也可以輕易得到胰島素治療，
03:48
You get it, either in pill form or you get it as an injection;
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不管是服用胰島素藥劑或是針劑注射都可以，
03:52
you have to take it every day to maintain your blood sugar levels.
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你必須每天服用或注射，以維持血糖的水準。
03:54
Massive technological advance:
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我們在這上面運用了大量先進的科技，
03:56
took an incredibly deadly disease, made it solvable.
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讓這種致死率極高的病症獲得控制。
03:58
Adherence rates. How many people are taking their insulin every day?
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我們來看看持續率，有多少人每天都服用或注射胰島素？
04:01
About on average, a typical person is taking it 75 percent of the time.
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平均來說，每個人大約都只有75%的時間會依照指示用藥，
04:05
As a result, 25,000 people a year go blind,
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因此，每年都有2萬5千人因此而失明，
04:10
hundreds of thousands lose limbs, every year,
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每年都有數十萬人因此截肢，
04:12
for something that's solvable.
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糖尿病並非無藥可醫啊...
04:14
Here I have a bunch of other examples,
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我還有一大堆這種例子，
04:16
all suffer from the last mile problem.
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都是無法堅持到最後一哩才產生問題，
04:18
It's not just medicine.
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不只是醫療方面的問題，
04:20
Here's another example from technology:
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這裡還有其他科技上的問題，
04:22
agriculture. We think
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像是農業。
04:24
there's a food problem, so we create new seeds.
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我們以為會有糧食危機，所以我們製造出新品種的種子；
04:26
We think there's an income problem, so we create
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我們以為農人的收入會是問題，
04:28
new ways of farming that increase income.
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所以我們開發新的農耕技術以提升收入。
04:31
Well, look at some old ways, some ways that we'd already cracked.
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嗯，我們來看看以前的老方法，那些我們已經實行多年的老方法，
04:34
Intercropping. Intercropping really increases income.
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例如交叉耕作。交叉耕作確實能增加農民的收入，
04:36
Sometimes in rice we found incredible increases in yield
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在耕作稻米時，有時我們會發現，當你將不同品種的稻米
04:39
when you mix different varieties of rice side by side.
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一排一排地交叉耕作時，其產量會出奇地高。
04:41
Some people are doing that,
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有些人會這樣做，
04:43
many are not. What's going on?
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但大部分的人不採用這種方法，為什麼？
04:45
This is the last mile.
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這就是最後一哩的問題，
04:47
The last mile is, everywhere, problematic.
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每一個例子的問題都出在最後一哩，
04:49
Alright, what's the problem?
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那麼，究竟最後一哩的問題是什麼？
04:51
The problem is this little three-pound machine
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問題出在這個重約1.5公斤、
04:54
that's behind your eyes and between your ears.
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躲在你眼睛後面、夾在你耳朵中間的玩意兒，
04:58
This machine is really strange,
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這玩意兒真的很奇怪，
05:00
and one of the consequences is that people are weird.
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所以讓人們的行為也變得很怪異，
05:04
They do lots of inconsistent things.
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人們會做出一堆前後不一致的事情出來！
05:08
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
05:10
They do lots of inconsistent things.
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人們就是會做一堆前後不一致的事情！
05:13
And the inconsistencies
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就是這種不一致，
05:15
create, fundamentally, this last mile problem.
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才製造出我們剛才所談的最後一哩的問題。
05:18
See, when we were dealing with our biology, bacteria,
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看看，在我們研究生物學、細菌、
05:21
the genes, the things inside here, the blood?
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基因、這裡面的東西、血液等，
05:24
That's complex, but it's manageable.
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看似很複雜，但我們都還能處理；
05:27
When we're dealing with people like this?
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但是當我們處理這一類人的問題時，
05:30
The mind is more complex.
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人的心智又更複雜，
05:32
That's not as manageable, and that's what we're struggling with.
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並不像先前那些東西容易應付，那就是我們陷入的困境。
05:34
Let me go back to diarrhea for a second.
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我想先回來談一下痢疾，
05:37
Here's a question that was asked in the National Sample Survey,
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國家抽樣調查協會在一項針對印度婦女的調查中，
05:40
which is a survey asked of many Indian women:
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曾問過這樣一個問題，
05:42
"Your child has diarrhea.
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「如果你的孩子得了痢疾，
05:44
Should you increase, maintain or decrease the number of fluids?"
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你該增加／不變／減少孩子攝取的水份量？」
05:47
Just so you don't embarrass yourselves, I'll give you the right answer:
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為了不讓各位難堪，我就直接把答案公布出來，
05:50
It's increase.
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答案是增加。
05:54
Now, diarrhea's interesting
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痢疾很有趣，
05:55
because it's been around for thousands of years,
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它已經存在了幾千年了，
05:57
ever since humankind really
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自從人類開始群居在一起，
06:00
lived side by side enough to have really polluted water.
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群居的密度大到足以污染水源時就開始存在。
06:03
One Roman strategy that was very interesting
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羅馬人對付痢疾很有一套，
06:05
was that -- and it really gave them a comparative advantage --
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這讓羅馬人佔盡了優勢，
06:07
they made sure their soldiers didn't drink
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他們要求士兵不得飲用髒污的水，
06:10
even remotely muddied waters.
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即使在很遠以外的污水也不可以。
06:12
Because if some of your troops get diarrhea they're not that effective
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因為士兵一旦染上了痢疾，就無法在戰場上
06:15
on the battlefield.
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發揮戰鬥力。
06:17
So, if you think of Roman comparative advantage part of it was the breast shields,
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如果你以為羅馬人的優勢是在於他們的盾牌，
06:19
the breastplates, but part of it was drinking the right water.
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在於他們的盔甲，那麼另一個優勢就是他們知道要飲用乾淨的水。
06:23
So, here are these women. They've seen their parents
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好，這些印度婦女早就看過他們的父母
06:25
have struggled with diarrhea, they've struggled with diarrhea,
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與痢疾纏鬥，他們自己也與痢疾纏鬥過，
06:27
they've seen lots of deaths. How do they answer this question?
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他們看過無數人死去，那麼他們的答案是什麼呢？
06:30
In India, 35 to 50 percent say "Reduce."
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有35%到50%的印度婦女的答案是「減少」。
06:34
Think about what that means for a second.
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請你花點時間好好想想這代表了什麼意思，
06:36
Thirty-five to 50 percent of women
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有35%到50%的印度婦女
06:38
forget oral rehydration therapy,
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忘記了有口服補液療法，
06:40
they are increasing --
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他們反而加速...
06:42
they are actually making their child
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他們所採取的行動，反而讓
06:45
more likely to die through their actions.
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孩子們加速死去，
06:48
How is that possible?
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為什麼會這樣？
06:50
Well, one possibility -- I think that's how most people respond to this --
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嗯，我認為大部份的人會想：
06:53
is to say, "That's just stupid."
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「因為他們愚昧無知。」
06:57
I don't think that's stupid.
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我不覺得他們愚昧無知，
06:59
I think there is something very profoundly right in what these women are doing.
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我反而認為這些婦女所做的事，一定有非常正確的理由，
07:02
And that is, you don't put water
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也就是：你不會把水倒進
07:04
into a leaky bucket.
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會漏水的桶子裡吧...
07:06
So, think of the mental model that goes behind reducing the intake.
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想想看他們減少孩子的水份攝取量背後所持的理由，
07:10
Just doesn't make sense.
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儘管不合理，
07:12
Now, the model is intuitively right.
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但在直覺上來說卻是沒有問題的，
07:15
It just doesn't happen to be right about the world.
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只是世界上其他的人並不這麼想，
07:19
But it makes a whole lot of sense at some deep level.
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但你只要再深入想想你就會瞭解他們的想法。
07:22
And that, to me, is the fundamental challenge
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這對我來說，就是最後一哩背後
07:25
of the last mile.
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所代表的艱鉅挑戰。
07:30
This first challenge is what I refer to as the persuasion challenge.
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第一個挑戰，我稱之為說服的挑戰。
07:33
Convincing people to do something --
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要說服別人做一件事，
07:35
take oral rehydration therapy, intercrop, whatever it might be --
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像是採用口服補液療法、交叉耕作等等，
07:37
is not an act of information:
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都不只是告訴他們有這件事而已。
07:40
"Let's give them the data,
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「我們來把資料發送出去，
07:42
and when they have data they'll do the right thing."
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他們拿到資料就會開始做正確的事了。」
07:44
It's more complex than that.
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沒有這麼簡單。
07:46
And if you want to understand how it's more complex
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如果你想要知道為什麼沒有這麼簡單，
07:48
let me start with something kind of interesting.
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就讓我用一些有趣的例子來說明吧。
07:52
I'm going to give you a little math problem,
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我先給你們做一些小小的數學測驗，
07:54
and I want you to just yell out the answer as fast as possible.
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我要你們儘快地將答案大聲說出來。
07:57
A bat and a ball together cost $1.10.
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一支球棒和一顆球加起來是1.1美元，
07:59
The bat costs a dollar more than the ball.
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球棒比球貴1元，
08:02
How much does the ball cost? Quick.
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請問球是多少錢？快點答！
08:05
So, somebody out there says, "Five."
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那邊有人說5美分，
08:07
A lot of you said, "Ten."
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大部分的人說10美分，
08:09
Let's think about 10 for a second.
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我們先來想想10美分這個答案，
08:12
If the ball costs 10, the bat costs...
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如果球是10美分，那球棒是...
08:16
this is easy, $1.10.
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這很簡單嘛...1.1元
08:18
Yeah. So, together they would cost $1.20.
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對吧？所以加起來就是1.2美元。
08:21
So, here you all are, ostensibly educated people.
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在座各位很明顯都是受過教育的人，
08:24
Most of you look smart.
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大部分的人都很聰明，
08:27
The combination of that produces
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受過教育又聰明的人
08:30
something that is actually, you got this thing wrong.
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卻做出這個錯誤的答案，
08:32
How is that possible? Let's go to something else.
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怎麼會這樣？我們來看看其他的問題，
08:35
I know algebra can be complicated.
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我覺得代數太複雜了，
08:38
So, let's dial this back. That's what? Fifth grade? Fourth grade?
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我們往回推一點好了，那要回推到哪裡呢？五年級？還是四年級？
08:41
Let's go back to kindergarten. OK?
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要不乾脆回推到幼稚園好了？
08:44
There's a great show on American television that you have to watch.
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美國有一個很棒的電視節目，你一定得看，
08:46
It's called "Are You Smarter Than a Fifth Grader?"
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節目叫做「你比五年級生聰明嗎？」，
08:48
I think we've learned the answer to that here.
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我們剛剛才證明了你們是不是比五年級生聰明。
08:51
Let's move to kindergarten. Let's see if we can beat five-year-olds.
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那麼我們考些幼稚園的問題好了，看看你們是否能打敗五歲的小孩。
08:54
Here's what I'm going to do: I'm going to put objects on the screen.
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我要做的是，把幾個圖案放在投影片上，
08:57
I just want you to name the color of the object.
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我要請你們把圖案的顏色說出來，
09:01
That's all it is. OK?
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這樣就好了，可以嗎？
09:03
I want you to do it fast, and say it out loud with me,
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我要你們很快地說出顏色，和我一起大聲地說出來，
09:06
and do it quickly. I'll make the first one easy for you.
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而且要很快。第一個先來個簡單的，
09:08
Ready? Black.
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準備好了嗎？黑色。
09:10
Now the next ones I want you to do quickly and say it out loud.
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接下來，我要你們很快地大聲說出顏色，
09:12
Ready? Go.
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可以嗎？開始！
09:14
Audience: Red. Green.
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觀眾：紅色、綠色、
09:16
Yellow. Blue. Red.
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黃色、藍色、紅色。
09:18
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:21
Sendhil Mullainathan: That's pretty good.
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山迪：很好！
09:25
Almost out of kindergarten.
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幾乎比幼稚園小朋友還要好了！
09:27
What is all this telling us?
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這件事有什麼意義？
09:29
You see, what's going on here, and in the bat and ball problem
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你們剛才的表現，和剛才回答球棒與球的問題，
09:32
is that you have some intuitive ways of interacting with the world,
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你們都是用直覺來回應這個世界的問題，
09:35
some models that you use to understand the world.
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你所使用的是你以往所瞭解的模式，
09:37
These models, like the leaky bucket,
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這些模式就像印度婦女所想到的漏水的桶子，
09:39
work well in most situations.
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在大部分狀況下都可以應付一般的問題。
09:41
I suspect most of you --
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我相信大部分的人...
09:43
I hope that's true for the rest of you --
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希望其他的人也是一樣，
09:45
actually do pretty well with addition and subtraction in the real world.
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在現實生活裡應該都能做出正確的加法與減法。
09:49
I found a problem, a specific problem
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但我發現了一個特別的問題，
09:51
that actually found an error with that.
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會讓我們犯下錯誤，
09:54
Diarrhea, and many last mile problems, are like that.
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也就是我們在痢疾和其他最後一哩的問題上所犯的錯誤。
09:56
They are situations where the mental model
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我發現，有時候我們的直覺反應
09:58
doesn't match the reality.
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與現實世界並不相符。
10:00
Same thing here:
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剛才也是一樣，
10:02
You had an intuitive response to this that was very quick.
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你們的直覺反應非常迅速，
10:04
You read "blue" and you wanted to say "blue," even though you knew your task was red.
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你看到了用紅色所書寫的「blue(藍色)」，你沒有說出紅色，卻說成了藍色。
10:07
Now, I do this stuff because it's fun.
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我這麼做純粹只是逗你們玩，
10:09
But it's more profound than fun.
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但其背後的意義卻不只好玩而已。
10:13
I'll give you a good example of how it actually effects persuasion.
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我來舉一個例子，讓你們瞭解說服的影響力。
10:16
BMW is a pretty safe car.
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BMW是很安全的車子，
10:19
And they are trying to figure out, "Safety is good.
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他們想要瞭解：「我們的安全性很好啊...
10:21
I want to advertise safety. How am I going to advertise safety?"
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希望大家都能知道我們的安全性，要怎麼在廣告上呈現安全性呢？」
10:23
"I could give people numbers. We do well on crash tests."
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「我們就把數據呈現出來吧！我們在撞擊測試中表現得很好！」
10:26
But the truth of the matter is, you look at that car,
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但事實上，當你看著那台車，
10:28
it doesn't look like a Volvo,
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它就不像Volvo那麼堅固，
10:30
and it doesn't look like a Hummer.
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也不像悍馬車那麼堅固。
10:32
So, what I want you to think about for a few minutes
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我要你們花個幾分鐘想一下，
10:34
is: How would you convey safety of the BMW? Okay?
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要怎麼傳達出BMW的安全性？好嗎？
10:37
So now, while you're thinking about that let's move to a second task.
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好，在你們想的同時，我們來談第二個主題。
10:40
The second task is fuel efficiency. Okay?
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第二個主題是省油，可以嗎？
10:43
Here's another puzzle for all of you.
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我要來出另一道難題了，
10:45
One person walks into a car lot,
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有一個人走進一個賣車場，
10:47
and they're thinking about buying this Toyota Yaris.
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他想要買Toyota Yaris，
10:50
They are saying, "This is 35 miles per gallon. I'm going to do
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他說：「這部車每加崙的油可以跑35哩，
10:52
the environmentally right thing, I'm going to buy the Prius,
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我想要環保一點，就買Prius吧，
10:54
50 miles per gallon."
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一加崙可以跑50哩。」
10:56
Another person walks into the lot,
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另一個人也進來這個賣車場，
10:58
and they're about to buy a Hummer, nine miles per gallon,
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他想要買悍馬車，要全部配件的豪華精裝版，
11:00
fully loaded, luxury.
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每加崙可跑9哩。
11:02
And they say, "You know what? Do I need turbo? Do I need this heavyweight car?"
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然後他說：「嗯，我需要渦輪引擎嗎？我需要這麼重配備的車嗎？
11:06
I'm going to do something good for the environment.
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我想要環保一點，
11:08
I'm going to take off some of that weight,
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把一些配備拿掉，減少重量，
11:10
and I'm going to buy a Hummer that's 11 miles per gallon."
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那麼這台悍馬車就可以每加崙跑11哩了！」
11:13
Which one of these people has done more for the environment?
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誰對環保的貢獻比較大？
11:16
See, you have a mental model.
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看吧！你們的直覺心理又在作用了！
11:18
Fifty versus 35, that's a big move. Eleven versus nine? Come on.
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50對35，進步很多啊！11對9？比不上吧！
11:21
Turns out, go home and do the math,
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但請你回家好好算一下，你會發現，
11:24
the nine to 11 is a bigger change. That person has saved more gallons.
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從9進步到11是多大的進步！那個人省下的油其實比較多耶！
11:27
Why? Because we don't care about miles per gallon, we care about
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為什麼？因為每一加崙跑幾哩並不重要，重要的是每一哩
11:29
gallons per mile.
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需要多少加崙的油！
11:31
Think about how powerful that is if you're trying to encourage fuel efficiency.
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想想看，如果你想提倡省油，這將具有多大的效果！
11:34
Miles per gallon is the way we present things.
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我們目前都是看每一加崙可以跑幾哩，
11:36
If we want to encourage change of behavior,
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如果我們想要鼓勵大眾改變行為模式，
11:39
gallons per mile would have far more effectiveness.
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用每一哩需要多少加崙的油來呈現數據會比較有用。
11:41
Researchers have found these type of anomalies.
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研究人員已經發現有好幾種這類型反常的例子。
11:44
Okay, back to BMW. What should they do?
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好，我們回到BMW，他們應該怎麼做？
11:47
The problem BMW faces is this car looks safe.
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BMW所面對的問題是，這種車看起來很安全，
11:50
This car, which is my Mini, doesn't look that safe.
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而這種車，就是我的Mini，看起來則不怎麼安全。
11:54
Here was BMW's brilliant insight, which they embodied into an ad campaign.
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BMW想到了一個好點子，他們把這個點子用廣告呈現出來：
11:57
They showed a BMW driving down the street.
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一輛BMW行駛在街上，
11:59
There's a truck on the right. Boxes fall out of the truck.
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有一輛卡車在它的右邊，卡車上的箱子突然掉落，
12:02
The car swerves to avoid it, and therefore doesn't get into an accident.
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BMW卻突然轉向避開了那些箱子，才沒有釀成意外。
12:07
BWM realizes safety, in people's minds, has two components.
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BMW發現，人們心中所認定的安全性，具有二個要素，
12:11
You can be safe because when you're hit, you survive,
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第一是在你被撞時你能保有性命，這就叫安全；
12:15
or you can be safe because you avoid accidents.
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第二則是能避開危險，也叫做安全。
12:17
Remarkably successful campaign, but notice the power of it.
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這個廣告非常地成功，注意看看它所造成的影響，
12:19
It harnesses something you already believe.
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它已經改變了你原先的看法。
12:22
Now, even if I persuaded you to do something,
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即使我想說服你去做某件事，
12:26
it's hard sometimes to actually get action as a result.
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但有時就是很難讓你去採取行動。
12:30
You all probably intended to wake up,
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大家可能都很想在早上
12:32
I don't know, 6:30, 7 a.m.
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大概6:30或7:00起床吧，
12:35
This is a battle we all fight every day,
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我們每天早上都為了起床而奮戰，
12:37
along with trying to get to the gym.
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也為了要不要上健身房而奮戰。
12:40
Now, this is an example of that battle,
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這個早起奮戰的例子告訴我們，
12:43
and makes us realize intentions don't always translate into action,
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你想要做的事不一定都會去做，
12:46
and so one of the fundamental challenges
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所以我們面對最基本的挑戰
12:48
is how we would actually do that. OK?
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就是該如何讓我們採取行動，對吧？
12:52
So, let me now talk about the last mile problem.
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好，我們回來談談最後一哩的問題，
12:55
So far, I've been pretty negative.
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到目前為止，我所談的都很負面，
12:58
I've been trying to show you the oddities of human behavior.
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我告訴了各位人類行為中怪異的一面，
13:01
And I think maybe I'm being too negative.
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但我覺得或許自己太悲觀了，
13:03
Maybe it's the diarrhea.
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或許是痢疾這件事對我造成了這種影響，
13:05
Maybe the last mile problem really should be thought of
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也或許我們應該把最後一哩這個問題，
13:07
as the last mile opportunity.
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當成是一種機會來看待。
13:09
Let's go back to diabetes.
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我們來看看糖尿病，
13:11
This is a typical insulin injection.
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這是一般的胰島素針劑，
13:14
Now, carrying this thing around is complicated.
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把這個針劑帶著到處走確實很麻煩，
13:17
You gotta carry the bottle, you gotta carry the syringe.
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你得帶著藥瓶，還得帶著針筒，
13:21
It's also painful.
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打針還會痛。
13:23
Now, you may think to yourself, "Well, if my eyes depended on it,
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你可能會想：「嗯，如果我可能因此而失明，
13:27
you know, I would obviously use it every day."
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我一定會天天注射。」
13:29
But the pain, the discomfort,
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但是那種痛苦，那種不舒服的感覺，
13:31
you know, paying attention, remembering to put it in your purse
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請各位想一想，如果你要出發去長途旅行，
13:33
when you go on a long trip:
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你得記得把這些針劑放進皮包裡，
13:35
These are the day-to-day of life, and they do pose problems.
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這些是每天都要做的事，確實造成不少困擾。
13:39
Here is an innovation, a design innovation.
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現在有了新的發明，設計上的創新。
13:42
This is a pen, it's called an insulin pen, preloaded.
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這枝筆叫做胰島素筆，事先已填入胰島素，
13:46
The needle is particularly sharp.
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針頭比一般的更鋒利，
13:47
You just gotta carry this thing around.
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你只要帶著這枝筆，去到哪裡都方便，
13:49
It's much easier to use, much less painful.
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而且比原先的針劑容易使用，也比較不會痛。
13:51
Anywhere between five and 10 percent increase in adherence,
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只要改用這枝筆，服用胰島素的持續率
13:55
just as a result of this.
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就會提升5%到10%。
13:57
That's what I'm talking about as a last mile opportunity.
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這就是我說的最後一哩的轉機。
14:00
You see, we tend to think the problem is solved
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每次我們解決了科技上的問題，
14:03
when we solve the technology problem.
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我們就以為問題已經解決了。
14:05
But the human innovation, the human problem
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儘管我們有所創新，但問題還是持續存在，
14:07
still remains, and that's a great frontier that we have left.
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我們忘了還有許多問題沒有克服。
14:11
This isn't about the biology of people;
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這與人類的生理構造無關，
14:13
this is now about the brains, the psychology of people,
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這完全是由人類的大腦--也就是人類的心理狀況來決定，
14:17
and innovation needs to continue all the way through
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創新必須要能夠一路持續到
14:19
the last mile.
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最後一哩。
14:21
Here's another example of this.
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這裡有一個例子，
14:23
This is from a company called Positive Energy.
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這個公司叫做正向能源(Positive Energy)，
14:26
This is about energy efficiency.
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他們主要研究節能產品。
14:28
We're spending a lot of time on fuel cells right now.
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我們花了很多時間研究燃料電池，
14:31
What this company does is they send a letter
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但這個公司做的只是寄給每個家庭一封信，
14:33
to households that say, "Here's your energy use,
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上面寫著：「這是你的用電量，
14:35
here's your neighbor's energy use: You're doing well." Smiley face.
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這是你鄰居的用電量，你做得不錯。」附上一個笑臉，
14:38
"You're doing worse." Frown.
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「你做得比較差。」附上一個苦瓜臉。
14:40
And what they find is just this letter, nothing else,
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他們發現，光是這封信，
14:43
has a two to three percent reduction in electricity use.
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就可以節省2%到3%的用電量。
14:45
And you want to think about the social value of that
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我們可以接著想像這件事所帶來的社會效益：
14:47
in terms of carbon offsets, reduced electricity,
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碳排放量減少了、用電量降低、
14:49
900 million dollars per year.
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一年節省9億美金。
14:51
Why? Because for free,
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為什麼？因為這封信沒花什麽錢，
14:53
this isn't a new technology, this is a letter --
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也不是什麼新科技，就只是一封信而已，
14:55
we're getting a Big Bang in behavior.
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就能對我們的行為產生很大的影響。
14:57
So, how do we tackle the last mile?
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那麼，我們該怎麼處理最後一哩這個問題？
15:01
I think this tells us there is an opportunity.
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我認為，這個例子讓我們看到了轉機，
15:04
And I think to tackle it, we need to combine
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我相信要處理這個問題，我們必得結合
15:06
psychology,
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心理層面、
15:08
marketing,
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行銷層面、
15:10
art, we've seen that.
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與藝術層面，就像我們剛才看到的一樣。
15:12
But you know what we need to combine it with?
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但你知道這些東西該與什麼結合起來嗎？
15:14
We need to combine this with the scientific method.
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這些東西必須與科學方法相結合。
15:16
See what's really puzzling and frustrating about the last mile, to me,
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對我來說，最後一哩真正難解與困擾人的地方在於，
15:20
is that the first 999 miles are all about science.
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前面那999哩都是由科學方法來解決。
15:23
No one would say, "Hey, I think this medicine works, go ahead and use it."
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沒有人會說：「嘿，我覺得這種藥很有效，讓我們開始用這種藥吧！」
15:27
We have testing, we go to the lab, we try it again, we have refinement.
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我們要先進行測試，要進到實驗試裡再試驗個幾次，還得要改良，
15:29
But you know what we do on the last mile?
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但你知道我們在最後一哩時會怎麼做嗎？
15:32
"Oh, this is a good idea. People will like this. Let's put it out there."
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「噢，這真是個好主意！大家一定會喜歡的！就開始實施吧！」
15:35
The amount of resources we put in are disparate.
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我們所投入的資源完全不對等。
15:37
We put billions of dollars into fuel-efficient technologies.
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我們在節能科技上投入了數十億元的經費，
15:40
How much are we putting into
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但我們又投入了多少經費，
15:42
energy behavior change
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去開發可靠、有系統、驗證過的方法，
15:44
in a credible, systematic, testing way?
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以改變人們使用能源的習慣？
15:47
Now, I think that we're on the verge of something big.
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現在，我認為我們已經摸到一點邊了，
15:50
We're on the verge of a whole new social science.
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我們已經摸到嶄新社會科學領域的邊了，
15:53
It's a social science that recognizes --
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社會科學能幫助我們瞭解，
15:55
much like science recognizes the complexity of the body,
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就像科學能幫助我們瞭解人體的奧妙，
15:58
biology recognizes the complexity of the body -- we'll recognize
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或像生物學能幫助我們瞭解人體的奧妙，
16:00
the complexity of the human mind.
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社會科學能幫助我們瞭解人類心智的奧妙。
16:02
The careful testing, retesting, design,
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透過嚴謹的測試、再測試和設計，
16:04
are going to open up vistas of understanding,
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我們必將開啟認知的大門，讓我們瞭解
16:07
complexities, difficult things.
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複雜、困難的事物；
16:09
And those vistas will both create new science,
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這種認知不但會開啟新的科學，
16:12
and fundamental change in the world as we see it, in the next hundred years.
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還會在未來的100年內，徹底顛覆我們所認知的世界。
16:16
All right. Thank you very much.
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謝謝各位！
16:18
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
16:20
Chris Anderson: Sendhil, thank you so much.
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克里斯．安德森：山迪，謝謝你的演說。
16:22
So, this whole area is so fascinating.
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這個領域真的很吸引人！
16:25
I mean, it sometimes feels, listening to behavioral economists
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我覺得，有時候聽你們這些行為經濟學家的演說，
16:28
that they are kind of putting into place
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就像是把行銷技巧以學術理論呈現，
16:31
academically, what great marketers
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但傑出的推銷員
16:33
have sort of intuitively known for a long time.
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早就在無形中運用自如了。
16:36
How much is your field talking to great marketers
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在你的研究領域裡，是否曾和傑出的推銷員們
16:40
about their insights into human psychology?
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聊過他們對於人類心理的觀察？
16:42
Because they've seen it on the ground.
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我想他們早就瞭然於胸了吧？
16:44
Sendhil Mullainathan: Yeah, we spend a lot of time talking to marketers,
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山迪：對，我們花了很長的時間與推銷員們對話，
16:46
and I think 60 percent of it is exactly what you say,
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我想有60%是被你說中了，
16:49
there are insights to be gleaned there.
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他們確實是有些觀察入微的見解值得我們去蒐集，
16:51
Forty percent of it is about what marketing is.
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另外40%則是談論有關推銷的技巧。
16:53
Marketing is selling an ad to a firm.
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舉例來說，當你要向一家公司推銷一則廣告時，
16:58
So, in some sense, a lot of marketing is about
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有絕大部分的時間，你會去說服那位CEO，
17:00
convincing a CEO, "This is a good ad campaign."
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告訴他那則廣告的效果會有多好。
17:03
So, there is a little bit of slippage there.
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但這裡面有陷阱，
17:05
That's just a caveat. That's different from actually having an effective ad campaign.
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你只是告訴他可能有的效果而已，真正的效果一定有所不同，
17:09
And one of the new movements in marketing is: How do we actually
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而目前在行銷業界的新課題，就是想辦法
17:11
measure effectiveness? Are we effective?
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去衡量效果，要怎麼確認一個廣告是有效的？
17:13
CA: How you take your insights here
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克里斯：舉例來說，
17:17
and actually get them integrated
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你要怎麼把你的觀點
17:20
into working business models on the ground,
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和印度這裡的企業運作方式
17:23
in Indian villages, for example?
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相結合？
17:25
SM: So, the scientific method I alluded to is pretty important.
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山迪：我剛才所提到的科學方法是很重要的，
17:28
We work closely with companies that have operational capacity,
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我們和一些具有營運規模的私人企業
17:30
or nonprofits that have operational capacity.
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及非營利組織緊密合作，
17:32
And then we say, "Well, you want to get this behavior change.
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我們會說，嗯，如果你想要改變人們的行為，
17:34
Let's come up with a few ideas, test them,
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我們就來想幾個方法，測試一下，
17:37
see which is working, go back, synthesize,
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看哪一個方法有效，回去重組一下，
17:39
and try to come up with a thing that works,"
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找出最有效的方法，
17:41
and then we're able to scale with partners.
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才能在其他企業裡面大量推廣。
17:43
It's kind of the model that has worked in other contexts.
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就好像其他科學領域的研究人員所做的事情一樣，
17:45
If you have biological problems
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如果你有生物學上的問題，
17:47
we try and fix it, see if it works, and then work the scale.
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你會想辦法解決，看什麼方法有效，再決定推廣出去。
17:49
CA: Alright Sendhil, thanks so much for coming to TED. Thank you.
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克里斯：好的，山迪！謝謝你來TED演講，謝謝！
17:52
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Sendhil Mullainathan - Behavioral economistSendhil Mullainathan asks a compelling question: what are the irrational choices we make that perpetuate poverty, corruption, discrimination?
Why you should listen
To study big questions such as "What are the measurable effects of corruption?"" Sendhil Mullainathan and his collaborators look at the day-to-day decisions made by real people, running deep-data studies on groups around the world to tease out patterns. Awarded a MacArthur ""genius"" grant in 2002, he has produced and collaborated on a string of research papers that make for a must-read CV -- including a fascinating, if dispiriting, study of the corruption involved in getting a driver's license in India.
Lately he and his team have been studying women who sell fruit and vegetables on the streets in developing countries. They're usually in debt to a moneylender in the market, who takes about half their profits each day as interest. Some of the women have figured a simple way to get out of debt and keep all their profits. But most of the women make a choice every day that keeps them in debt. How would these businesswomen behave, he wondered, if the slate was wiped clean? So he got a grant, paid off their debt, and waits to see what happens next."
Sendhil Mullainathan | Speaker | TED.com