TEDGlobal 2005
Barry Schwartz: The paradox of choice
Barry Schwartz i paradoks izbora
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Psiholog Barry Schwartz obrađuje glavno pravilo zapadnih društava: slobodu izbora. Prema Schwartzovoj procjeni, izbor nas čini ne slobodnijima nego paraliziranijima, ne sretnijima nego nezadovoljnijima.
Barry Schwartz - Psychologist
Barry Schwartz studies the link between economics and psychology, offering startling insights into modern life. Lately, working with Ken Sharpe, he's studying wisdom. Full bio
Barry Schwartz studies the link between economics and psychology, offering startling insights into modern life. Lately, working with Ken Sharpe, he's studying wisdom. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
I'm going to talk to you about some stuff that's in this book of mine
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Pričati ću vam o nekim stvarima iz svoje knjige
00:28
that I hope will resonate with other things you've already heard,
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koje će, nadam se, rezonirati sa nekim drugim stvarima koje ste već čuli,
00:31
and I'll try to make some connections myself, in case you miss them.
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a pokušati ću i sam napraviti neke poveznice, u slučaju da su vam promakle.
00:35
I want to start with what I call the "official dogma."
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Htio bih početi sa nečim što zovem "službenom dogmom."
00:39
The official dogma of what?
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Službenom dogmom čega?
00:41
The official dogma of all western industrial societies.
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Službenom dogmom svih zapadnih industrijskih društava.
00:45
And the official dogma runs like this:
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A ona ide ovako:
00:47
if we are interested in maximizing the welfare of our citizens,
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ako želimo povećati blagostanje naših građana,
00:51
the way to do that is to maximize individual freedom.
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to ćemo učiniti tako što ćemo povećati slobodu individua.
00:57
The reason for this is both that freedom is in and of itself good,
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Razlog tome je što je sloboda sama po sebi dobra stvar,
01:02
valuable, worthwhile, essential to being human.
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dragocjena, vrijedna truda, i osnovni čimbenik ljudskosti.
01:05
And because if people have freedom,
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A ako ljudi imaju slobodu,
01:08
then each of us can act on our own
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tada svatko od nas može postupati po vlastitom nahođenju
01:10
to do the things that will maximize our welfare,
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i raditi stvari koje će maksimizirati naše blagostanje,
01:12
and no one has to decide on our behalf.
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te nitko ne mora odlučivati u naše ime.
01:16
The way to maximize freedom is to maximize choice.
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Način na koji možemo maksimizirati slobodu je da maksimiziramo mogućnost izbora.
01:21
The more choice people have, the more freedom they have,
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Što više izbora ljudi imaju, imati će i više slobode,
01:24
and the more freedom they have,
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a što više slobode imaju,
01:26
the more welfare they have.
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to će njihova dobrobit biti veća.
01:29
This, I think, is so deeply embedded in the water supply
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Ovo je, po mome mišljenju, duboko usađeno u opskrbu vodom
01:34
that it wouldn't occur to anyone to question it.
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toliko da nikome ne bi palo na pamet sumnjati.
01:37
And it's also deeply embedded in our lives.
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Također, to je duboko usađeno i u našim životima.
01:42
I'll give you some examples of what modern progress has made possible for us.
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Dati ću vam nekoliko primjera što nam je sve napredak omogućio.
01:48
This is my supermarket. Not such a big one.
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Ovo je moj supermarket. Nije jedan od većih.
01:52
I want to say just a word about salad dressing.
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Htio bih samo reći nešto o preljevima za salatu.
01:54
175 salad dressings in my supermarket,
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U mom supermarketu postoji čak 175 prelljeva za salatu,
01:57
if you don't count the 10 extra-virgin olive oils
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ako ne računate deset različitih vrsta ekstra-djevičanskog maslinovog ulja
02:00
and 12 balsamic vinegars you could buy
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i 12 vrsta balzamičnog octa koji možete kupiti
02:03
to make a very large number of your own salad dressings,
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kako bi napravili vrlo velik broj vlastitih preljeva za salatu
02:06
in the off-chance that none of the 175 the store has on offer suit you.
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u slučaju vrlo malene mogućnosti da vam nijedan od onih 175 ne odgovara
02:11
So this is what the supermarket is like.
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Takva je situacija u supermarketima.
02:13
And then you go to the consumer electronics store to set up a stereo system --
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A zatim odete u trgovinu električnom opremom da kupite zvučni sustav --
02:17
speakers, CD player, tape player, tuner, amplifier --
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zvučnike, CD player, kazetofon, podešavač, pojačalo.
02:21
and in this one single consumer electronics store,
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A u toj jednoj jedinoj trgovini električnom opremom,
02:25
there are that many stereo systems.
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postoji toliko mnogo zvučnih sustava.
02:29
We can construct six-and-a-half-million different stereo systems
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Mogli bi napravit šest i pol milijuna različitih zvučnih sustava
02:34
out of the components that are on offer in one store.
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od komponenti koje su u ponudi.
02:37
You've got to admit that's a lot of choice.
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Morate priznati da je to veliki izbor.
02:39
In other domains -- the world of communications.
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U drugim područjima -- naprimjer u telekomunikacijskim uslugama:
02:43
There was a time, when I was a boy,
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Nekada davno, kada sam bio mali,
02:45
when you could get any kind of telephone service you wanted,
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kada ste mogli dobiti bilo kakvu telefonsku uslugu koju ste željeli,
02:48
as long as it came from Ma Bell.
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dok god je ona dolazila od tvrtke Ma Bell
02:50
You rented your phone. You didn't buy it.
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Telefon se iznajmljivao. Nije se kupovao.
02:52
One consequence of that, by the way, is that the phone never broke.
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Jedna od posljedica toga, usput, je da se telefon nikad nije kvario.
02:55
And those days are gone.
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Ali to vrijeme je iza nas.
02:58
We now have an almost unlimited variety of phones,
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Sada imamo skoro neograničenu ponudu telefona,
03:01
especially in the world of cell phones.
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pogotovo mobitela.
03:03
These are cell phones of the future.
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Ovo su mobiteli budućnosti.
03:06
My favorite is the middle one --
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Meni najdraži je onaj u sredini --
03:08
the MP3 player, nose hair trimmer, and creme brulee torch.
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MP3 player, rezač dlaka u nosu i plamenik za karameliziranje u jednom.
03:12
And if by some chance you haven't seen that in your store yet,
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A ako nekim slučajem niste već našli ovo u vašem dućanu,
03:18
you can rest assured that one day soon you will.
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možete biti uvjereni da jednog dana hoćete.
03:20
And what this does is
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A što se zbog toga događa
03:22
it leads people to walk into their stores asking this question.
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je to da ljudi u trgovinama postavljaju ovakva pitanja.
03:26
And do you know what the answer to this question now is?
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Znate li koji je odgovor na ovo pitanje?
03:28
The answer is "No."
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Odgovor je "Ne."
03:30
It is not possible to buy a cell phone that doesn't do too much.
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Nije moguće kupiti mobitel koji ne radi puno toga.
03:34
So, in other aspects of life that are much more significant than buying things,
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Također, u drugim područjima života koji su mnogo važniji od kupovanja,
03:39
the same explosion of choice is true.
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događa se ista eksplozija izbora.
03:43
Health care -- it is no longer the case in the United States
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Zdravstvena skrb -- u Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama više nije slučaj
03:47
that you go to the doctor, and the doctor tells you what to do.
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da vi odete kod liječnik, a on vam kaže što trebate učiniti.
03:50
Instead, you go to the doctor,
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Umjesto toga, vi odete kod liječnika,
03:52
and the doctor tells you, "Well, we could do A, or we could do B.
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a on vam kaže, imamo opciju A i opciju B.
03:55
A has these benefits, and these risks.
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Opcija A ima ove prednosti i ovakav rizik.
03:58
B has these benefits, and these risks. What do you want to do?"
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Opcija B ima ove prednosti i ovakav rizik. Što želite napraviti?
04:02
And you say, "Doc, what should I do?"
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A vi kažete, "Doktore, što bih trebao napraviti?"
04:05
And the doc says, "A has these benefits and risks, and B has these benefits and risks.
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I doktor kaže, opcija A ima ove prednosti i ovaj rizik, a B ima ove prednosti i ovaj rizik.
04:09
What do you want to do?"
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Što želite napraviti?
04:12
And you say, "If you were me, Doc, what would you do?"
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A vi kažete, "Da ste vi na mom mjestu doktore, što bi vi napravili?"
04:15
And the doc says, "But I'm not you."
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I liječnik kaže, "Ali ja nisam na vašem mjestu."
04:19
And the result is -- we call it "patient autonomy,"
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Što dovodi do nečega što zovemo "samostalnost pacijenta,"
04:22
which makes it sound like a good thing,
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što zvuči kao dobra stvar.
04:24
but what it really is is a shifting of the burden and the responsibility
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No jedino što se događa je prebacivanje tereta i odgovornosti
04:26
for decision-making from somebody who knows something --
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za donošenje odluka s nekog tko zna nešto --
04:29
namely, the doctor --
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to jest doktora --
04:30
to somebody who knows nothing and is almost certainly sick
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na nekoga tko ne zna apsolutno ništa i gotovo sigurno je bolestan
04:33
and thus not in the best shape to be making decisions --
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i prema tome nije u najboljem stanju da donosi odluke --
04:36
namely, the patient.
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to jest pacijent.
04:38
There's enormous marketing of prescription drugs
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Lijekovi na recept se strašno mnogo promoviraju
04:41
to people like you and me,
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ljudima poput vas i mene,
04:42
which, if you think about it, makes no sense at all,
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što, kad razmislite o tome, nema uopće smisla,
04:44
since we can't buy them.
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jer ih ne možemo kupiti.
04:46
Why do they market to us if we can't buy them?
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Zašto se reklamiraju lijekovi koje ne možemo kupiti?
04:48
The answer is that they expect us to call our doctors the next morning
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Odgovor je u tome da oni očekuju od nas da nazovemo svoje liječnike slijedećeg jutra
04:52
and ask for our prescriptions to be changed.
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i zatražimo da nam promijeni recept.
04:56
Something as dramatic as our identity
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Nešto toliko dramatično kao naš identitet
05:00
has now become a matter of choice,
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je sada postala stvar izbora,
05:02
as this slide is meant to indicate.
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kako vidimo iz ovog slajda.
05:06
We don't inherit an identity; we get to invent it.
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Mi ne nasljeđujemo identitet, mi ga stvaramo.
05:08
And we get to re-invent ourselves as often as we like.
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A sada možemo ponovno stvarati sebe koliko god želimo.
05:12
And that means that everyday, when you wake up in the morning,
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Što znači da svakog jutra kada se probudite,
05:14
you have to decide what kind of person you want to be.
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morate odlučiti kakva ćete osoba biti.
05:19
With respect to marriage and family,
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S poštovanjem prema braku i obitelji,
05:22
there was a time when the default assumption that almost everyone had
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postojalo je vrijeme kada je uobičajena pretpostavka koju su svi imali
05:28
is that you got married as soon as you could,
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bila da se vjenčate što prije,
05:29
and then you started having kids as soon as you could.
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kako bi imali djecu što prije.
05:31
The only real choice was who,
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Jedini pravi izbor je bio za koga,
05:35
not when, and not what you did after.
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ne kada, i ne što ćete vi raditi poslije.
05:38
Nowadays, everything is very much up for grabs.
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Danas, sve je na pladnju.
05:41
I teach wonderfully intelligent students,
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Ja poučavam nevjerojatno inteligentne studente,
05:44
and I assign 20 percent less work than I used to.
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a zadajem im 20 posto manje posla nego što sam prije.
05:47
And it's not because they're less smart,
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To nije zbog toga što su oni manje pametni,
05:50
and it's not because they're less diligent.
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ni zbog toga što su manje marljivi.
05:52
It's because they are preoccupied, asking themselves,
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To je zbog toga što su prezaposleni preispitujući sebe,
05:56
"Should I get married or not? Should I get married now?
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"Bih li se trebao vjenčati ili ne? Trebam li se vjenčati sada?
05:58
Should I get married later? Should I have kids first, or a career first?"
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Trebam li se vjenčati kasnije? Prvo djeca, ili prvo karijera?"
06:02
All of these are consuming questions.
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Sve su to važna pitanja.
06:05
And they're going to answer these questions,
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A oni će odgovoriti na ta pitanja,
06:07
whether or not it means not doing all the work I assign
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bez obzira da li naprave sav posao koji sam im zadao
06:09
and not getting a good grade in my courses.
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i da li dobiju dobru ocjenu iz mog kolegija.
06:12
And indeed they should. These are important questions to answer.
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Tako bi i trebali. To su važna pitanja na koja treba odgovoriti.
06:17
Work -- we are blessed, as Carl was pointing out,
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Rad -- mi smo blagoslovljeni, kako je Carl istaknuo,
06:20
with the technology that enables us
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sa svom tehnologijom koja nam omogućuje
06:22
to work every minute of every day from any place on the planet --
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da radimo svake minute svakog dana sa bilo kojeg mjesta na planetu --
06:29
except the Randolph Hotel.
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osim hotela Randolph.
06:31
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:36
There is one corner, by the way,
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Postoji jedan kut, usput,
06:38
that I'm not going to tell anybody about, where the WiFi works.
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za koji neću nikome reći, gdje radi bežični internet.
06:43
I'm not telling you about it because I want to use it.
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Neću vam reći koji je jer ga ja želim koristiti.
06:45
So what this means, this incredible freedom of choice
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Dakle što ovo znači, ova nevjerojatna sloboda izbora
06:48
we have with respect to work, is that we have to make a decision,
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s kojom moramo raditi, je da moramo odlučivati
06:51
again and again and again,
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opet i opet i opet,
06:53
about whether we should or shouldn't be working.
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bi li ili ne bi trebali raditi.
06:56
We can go to watch our kid play soccer,
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Mogli bi otići na djetetovu utakmicu,
06:59
and we have our cell phone on one hip,
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sa mobitelom na jednom bedru,
07:01
and our Blackberry on our other hip,
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Blackberryjem na drugom,
07:03
and our laptop, presumably, on our laps.
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i laptopom, po svoj prilici, u krilu.
07:05
And even if they're all shut off,
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Čak i ako su svi ugašeni,
07:08
every minute that we're watching our kid mutilate a soccer game,
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svake minute koju provedemo gledajući kako naše dijete masakrira nogometnu utakmicu,
07:10
we are also asking ourselves,
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pitamo se,
07:12
"Should I answer this cell phone call?
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"Trebam li odgovoriti na ovaj poziv?
07:15
Should I respond to this email? Should I draft this letter?"
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Trebam li odgovoriti na ovaj e-mail? Trebam li napraviti skicu ovog pisma?"
07:17
And even if the answer to the question is "no,"
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I čak i ako je odgovor "ne,"
07:20
it's certainly going to make the experience of your kid's soccer game
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to će svakako učiniti iskustvo gledanja nogometne utakmice vašeg djeteta
07:23
very different than it would've been.
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mnogo drukčijim nego što bi ono inače bilo.
07:26
So everywhere we look,
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Dakle, gdje god pogledamo,
07:28
big things and small things, material things and lifestyle things,
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velike i male stvari, materijalne i životne stvari,
07:31
life is a matter of choice.
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život je stvar izbora.
07:34
And the world we used to live in looked like this.
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Svijet u kojem smo se navikli živjeti izgleda ovako.
07:40
That is to say, there were some choices,
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Što će reći, postojala je neka sloboda izbora,
07:42
but not everything was a matter of choice.
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ali nije sve bila stvar izbora.
07:44
And the world we now live in looks like this.
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A svijet u kojem sada živimo izgleda ovako.
07:47
And the question is, is this good news, or bad news?
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Pitanje je, jesu li ovo dobre ili loše vijesti?
07:53
And the answer is yes.
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A odgovor je da.
07:56
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:58
We all know what's good about it,
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Svi znamo dobre strane,
08:00
so I'm going to talk about what's bad about it.
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tako da ću ja govoriti o lošim stranama.
08:03
All of this choice has two effects,
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Sav ovaj izbor ima dvije posljedice,
08:06
two negative effects on people.
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dvije negativne posljedice za ljude.
08:09
One effect, paradoxically,
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Jedna od njih je, paradoksalno,
08:11
is that it produces paralysis, rather than liberation.
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da se događa paraliza umjesto oslobođenja
08:16
With so many options to choose from,
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Sa toliko mnogo mogućnosti koje možemo birati,
08:18
people find it very difficult to choose at all.
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ljudima postaje vrlo teško izabrati bilo što.
08:22
I'll give you one very dramatic example of this:
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Dati ću vam jedan dramatičan primjer,
08:25
a study that was done of investments in voluntary retirement plans.
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napravljena je studija o dobrovoljnom ulaganju u mirovinske fondove.
08:31
A colleague of mine got access to investment records from Vanguard,
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Jedna moja kolegica je dobla pristup arhivi investicija u Vanguardu,
08:36
the gigantic mutual fund company
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ogromnoj tvrtki koja se bavi zajedničkim fondovima
08:38
of about a million employees and about 2,000 different workplaces.
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koja pokriva oko milijun zaposlenika i oko 2,000 različitih radnih mjesta.
08:42
And what she found is that
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Ona je otkrila da
08:44
for every 10 mutual funds the employer offered,
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za svakih 10 zajedničkih fondova koje je poslodavac ponudio,
08:47
rate of participation went down two percent.
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stopa sudjelovanja se spustila za dva posto.
08:52
You offer 50 funds -- 10 percent fewer employees participate
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Vi ponudite 50 fondova -- 10 posto manje zaposlenika sudjeluje
08:56
than if you only offer five. Why?
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nego da ponudite pet. Zašto?
09:00
Because with 50 funds to choose from,
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Zato što sa 50 fondova koje možete izabrati
09:02
it's so damn hard to decide which fund to choose
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prokleto je teško odlučiti koji izabrati
09:06
that you'll just put it off until tomorrow.
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pa ćete to odgoditi za sutra.
09:08
And then tomorrow, and then tomorrow,
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I sutra, i opet sutra,
09:10
and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
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i sutra, i sutra,
09:12
and of course tomorrow never comes.
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i naravno, sutra nikad ne dođe.
09:14
Understand that not only does this mean
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Razumijte da ovo ne znači samo
09:16
that people are going to have to eat dog food when they retire
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da će ljudi morati jesti samo pseću hranu kada odu u mirovinu
09:18
because they don't have enough money put away,
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jer nemaju dovoljno novca za bilo što drugo,
09:20
it also means that making the decision is so hard
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to također znači da je odlučivanje toliko teško
09:23
that they pass up significant matching money from the employer.
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da će oni propustiti priliku da njihov poslodavac uloži koliko i oni.
09:27
By not participating, they are passing up as much as 5,000 dollars a year
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Nesudjelovanjem, propuštaju čak do 5,000 dolara godišnje
09:31
from the employer, who would happily match their contribution.
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od poslodavca, koji bi rado njihov unos udvostručio.
09:35
So paralysis is a consequence of having too many choices.
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Dakle paraliza je posljedica prevelike slobode izbora.
09:39
And I think it makes the world look like this.
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Zbog čega mislim da svijet izgleda ovako.
09:41
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:48
You really want to get the decision right if it's for all eternity, right?
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Zaista želite učiniti pravu odluku ako je za cijelu vječnost, je li tako?
09:52
You don't want to pick the wrong mutual fund, or even the wrong salad dressing.
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Ne želite izabrati krivi fond, čak ni krivi preljev za salatu.
09:55
So that's one effect. The second effect is that
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Tako da je to jedan efekt. Drugi je taj da
09:58
even if we manage to overcome the paralysis and make a choice,
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čak i ako uspijemo prevladati paralizu i napraviti izbor,
10:03
we end up less satisfied with the result of the choice
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na kraju smo manje zadovoljni rezultatom tog izbora
10:07
than we would be if we had fewer options to choose from.
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nego što bi bili da smo imali manje opcija za biranje.
10:10
And there are several reasons for this.
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Za ovo postoji nekoliko razloga.
10:13
One of them is that with a lot of different salad dressings to choose from,
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Jedan od kojih je taj da sa mnogo različitih preljeva za salatu koje možemo izabrati,
10:17
if you buy one, and it's not perfect -- and, you know, what salad dressing is? --
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ako kupite jedan, a on nije savršen -- a koji preljev za salatu uopće je?
10:20
it's easy to imagine that you could have made a different choice
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Lako je zamisliti da ste mogli napraviti drugi izbor
10:23
that would have been better. And what happens is
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koji bi bio bolji. A što se događa je da
10:27
this imagined alternative induces you to regret the decision you made,
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vas ova zamišljena alternativa navodi da požalite odluku koju ste donijeli,
10:32
and this regret subtracts from the satisfaction you get out of the decision you made,
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što se oduzima od zadovoljstva koje bi dobili od te odluke,
10:36
even if it was a good decision.
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čak i ako je to bila dobra odluka.
10:39
The more options there are, the easier it is to regret anything at all
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Što ima više opcija, lakše je požaliti bilo što
10:42
that is disappointing about the option that you chose.
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što je razočaravajuće sa opcijom koju ste izabrali.
10:45
Second, what economists call "opportunity costs."
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Drugo je ono što ekonomisti nazivaju oportunitetni troškovi.
10:48
Dan Gilbert made a big point this morning
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Dan Gilbert je danas pričao o tome
10:50
of talking about how much the way in which we value things
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kako način na koji mi vrednujemo stvari
10:55
depends on what we compare them to.
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ovisi o onome s čime ih uspoređujemo.
10:57
Well, when there are lots of alternatives to consider,
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Kako postoji mnogo alternativa koje bi trebali razmotriti,
11:01
it is easy to imagine the attractive features
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lako je zamisliti sve privlačne aspekte
11:04
of alternatives that you reject,
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onih alternativa koje ne izaberete,
11:07
that make you less satisfied with the alternative that you've chosen.
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koje vas čine manje zadovoljnima sa alternativom koju ste izabrali.
11:12
Here's an example. For those of you who aren't New Yorkers, I apologize.
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Evo primjer. Za one od vas koji niste iz New Yorka, ispričavam se.
11:16
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
11:17
But here's what you're supposed to be thinking.
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Ali ovo je ono o čemu sada vjerojatno razmišljate.
11:19
Here's this couple on the Hamptons.
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Ovo je par iz Hamptona.
11:21
Very expensive real estate.
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Vrlo skupa nekretnina.
11:23
Gorgeous beach. Beautiful day. They have it all to themselves.
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Prekrasna plaža. Divan dan. Imaju sve što su mogli poželjeti.
11:26
What could be better? "Well, damn it,"
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Što može biti bolje? "Kvragu,"
11:28
this guy is thinking, "It's August.
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ovaj čovjek misli, "Kolovoz je.
11:30
Everybody in my Manhattan neighborhood is away.
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Svi su otišli iz Manhattana.
11:34
I could be parking right in front of my building."
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Mogao bih se parkirati ispred svoje zgrade."
11:38
And he spends two weeks nagged by the idea
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I on potroši dva tjedna razmišljajući o tome
11:41
that he is missing the opportunity, day after day, to have a great parking space.
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kako on propušta priliku, dan za danom, za odlično parkirno mjesto.
11:48
Opportunity costs subtract from the satisfaction we get out of what we choose,
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Oportunitetni troškovi oduzimaju od zadovoljstva koje dobijemo svojim izborom,
11:52
even when what we choose is terrific.
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čak iako je ono što mi izaberemo odlično.
11:55
And the more options there are to consider,
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Što ima više opcija za izabrati,
11:57
the more attractive features of these options
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to će se na sve više privlačnih značajki tih opcija
11:59
are going to be reflected by us as opportunity costs.
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odnositi oportunitetni troškovi.
12:03
Here's another example.
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Evo drugog primjera.
12:09
Now this cartoon makes a lot of points.
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Ova karikatura ističe mnogo stvari.
12:11
It makes points about living in the moment as well,
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Ističe kako bi trebalo živjeti u trenutku,
12:15
and probably about doing things slowly.
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i raditi stvari sporije.
12:17
But one point it makes is that whenever you're choosing one thing,
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Ali što je važnije, ističe da kad god izabirete jednu stvar,
12:20
you're choosing not to do other things.
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izabirete da ne želite druge stvari.
12:22
And those other things may have lots of attractive features,
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A te druge stvari mogu imati dovoljno privlačnih značajki,
12:24
and it's going to make what you're doing less attractive.
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tako da će vama vaš izbor biti manje privlačan.
12:27
Third: escalation of expectations.
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Treće: eskalacija očekivanja.
12:29
This hit me when I went to replace my jeans.
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Ovo me pogodilo kada sam išao kupiti nove traperice.
12:32
I wear jeans almost all the time.
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Nosim traperice gotovo stalno.
12:34
And there was a time when jeans came in one flavor,
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A prije su traperice dolazile u jednoj izvedbi,
12:37
and you bought them, and they fit like crap,
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kupili ste ih, pristajale su loše,
12:39
and they were incredibly uncomfortable,
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i bile su nevjerojatno neudobne,
12:41
and if you wore them long enough and washed them enough times,
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ali ako ste ih nosili dovoljno dugo i oprali dovoljno puno puta,
12:43
they started to feel OK.
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počele bi biti dobre.
12:45
So I went to replace my jeans after years and years of wearing these old ones,
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Tako sam išao po nove traperice nakon godina i godina nošenja starih traperica,
12:48
and I said, you know, "I want a pair of jeans. Here's my size."
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i rekao sam, "Trebam jedne traperice, ovo je moja veličina."
12:51
And the shopkeeper said,
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A prodavač kaže,
12:52
"Do you want slim fit, easy fit, relaxed fit?
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"Želite li uske, lagane, široke?
12:55
You want button fly or zipper fly? You want stonewashed or acid-washed?
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Želite li dugmad ili patent zatvarač? Želite da izgledaju izbijeljeno ili iznošeno?
12:58
Do you want them distressed?
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Želite li da su zgužvane?
13:00
You want boot cut, you want tapered, blah blah blah ..." On and on he went.
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Želite li uske nogavice, trapez-kroj, bla bla bla..." Tako je on nastavljao.
13:03
My jaw dropped, and after I recovered, I said,
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Nisam mogao vjerovati, i nakon što sam se oporavio, rekoh,
13:06
"I want the kind that used to be the only kind."
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"Želim one koje su prije bile jedine."
13:09
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
13:14
He had no idea what that was,
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On nije imao pojma koje bi to bile,
13:16
so I spent an hour trying on all these damn jeans,
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pa sam potrošio sat vremena isprobavajući sve one proklete traperice,
13:20
and I walked out of the store -- truth! -- with the best-fitting jeans I had ever had.
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i izašao iz trgovine -- istini za volju -- sa najboljim trapericama koje sam ikad nosio.
13:25
I did better. All this choice made it possible for me to do better.
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Prošao sam bolje. Sav taj izbor omogućio mi je da postignem bolje.
13:29
But I felt worse.
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Ali osjećao sam se gore.
13:33
Why? I wrote a whole book to try to explain this to myself. (Laughter)
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Zašto? Napisao sam knjigu kako bih sebi to objasnio.
13:37
The reason I felt worse is that,
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Razlog zbog kojeg sam se osjećao gore je,
13:45
with all of these options available,
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sa svim tim dostupnim opcijama,
13:48
my expectations about how good a pair of jeans should be went up.
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moja očekivanja za jedan par traperica su se popela.
13:54
I had very low --
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Imao sam vrlo mala očekivanja.
13:55
I had no particular expectations when they only came in one flavor.
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Nisam imao nikakvih posebnih očekivanja kad su one dolazile samo u jednoj varijanti.
13:58
When they came in 100 flavors, damn it,
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Kad su bile dostupne u 100 izvedbi, kvragu,
14:00
one of them should've been perfect.
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jedne od njih trebale bi biti savršene.
14:02
And what I got was good, but it wasn't perfect.
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A ono što sam dobio bilo je dobro, no ne i savršeno.
14:04
And so I compared what I got to what I expected,
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Pa sam usporedio ono što sam dobio sa onim što sam očekivao,
14:07
and what I got was disappointing in comparison to what I expected.
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i ono što sam dobio je bilo razočaravajuće s obzirom na ono što sam očekivao.
14:10
Adding options to people's lives
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Dodavanje opcija u živote ljudi
14:13
can't help but increase the expectations people have
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mora povećati očekivanja koja ljudi imaju
14:17
about how good those options will be.
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i koliko dobre će te opcije biti.
14:19
And what that's going to produce is less satisfaction with results,
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A to donosi manje zadovoljstva sa krajnjim ishodom,
14:22
even when they're good results.
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čak iako je to povoljan ishod.
14:25
Nobody in the world of marketing knows this,
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Nitko u oglašavanju nije svjestan toga.
14:28
because if they did, you wouldn't all know what this was about.
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Jer da jesu, ne biste znali o čemu se ovdje radi.
14:34
The truth is more like this.
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Istina izgleda više ovako.
14:37
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
14:40
The reason that everything was better back when everything was worse
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Razlog zbog kojeg je sve djelovalo bolje kada je zapravo bilo gore
14:44
is that when everything was worse,
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je što kad je sve bilo gore,
14:46
it was actually possible for people to have experiences that were a pleasant surprise.
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bilo je moguće da ljudi dožive nešto sa ugodnim iznenađenjem.
14:51
Nowadays, the world we live in -- we affluent, industrialized citizens,
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Danas, u svijetu u kojem živimo mi -- bogati, industrijalizirani ljudi,
14:55
with perfection the expectation --
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sa ciljem savršenstva --
14:57
the best you can ever hope for is that stuff is as good as you expect it to be.
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najbolje čemu se možete nadati je da su stvari jednako dobre kao što bi i očekivali.
15:01
You will never be pleasantly surprised
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Nikada nećete biti ugodno iznenađeni
15:03
because your expectations, my expectations, have gone through the roof.
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jer su se strašno povećala vaša i moja očekivanja
15:07
The secret to happiness -- this is what you all came for --
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Tajna sreće -- zbog ovoga ste svi vi tu --
15:10
the secret to happiness is low expectations.
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tajna sreće su niska očekivanja.
15:16
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
15:18
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
15:24
I want to say -- just a little autobiographical moment --
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Želio bih reći -- kao kratka autobigrafska digresija --
15:28
that I actually am married to a wife,
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da sam oženjen za ženu,
15:31
and she's really quite wonderful.
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koja je jako divna.
15:33
I couldn't have done better. I didn't settle.
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Nisam mogao proći bolje. Nisam se zadovoljio s manje.
15:36
But settling isn't always such a bad thing.
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Ali zadovoljavanje s manje nije uvijek loša stvar.
15:39
Finally, one consequence of buying a bad-fitting pair of jeans
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Konačno, jedna posljedica kupovanja traperica koje vam loše stoje
15:44
when there is only one kind to buy
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kada postoji samo jedna vrsta koju možete kupiti
15:47
is that when you are dissatisfied, and you ask why,
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jest kada ste razočarani, i zapitate se zašto,
15:49
who's responsible, the answer is clear:
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tko je odgovoran za to, odgovor je očit.
15:51
the world is responsible. What could you do?
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Svijet je odgovoran za to. Što vi možete s tim?
15:54
When there are hundreds of different styles of jeans available,
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Kad postoje stotine različitih vrsta traperica u ponudi,
15:57
and you buy one that is disappointing,
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a vi kupite jedne koje su razočaravajuće,
16:00
and you ask why, who's responsible?
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i zapitate se zašto, tko je odgovoran za to?
16:02
It is equally clear that the answer to the question is you.
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Jednako je jasno da je odgovor: vi.
16:07
You could have done better.
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Mogli ste proći bolje.
16:09
With a hundred different kinds of jeans on display,
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Sa stotinama različitih vrsta traperica u ponudi,
16:12
there is no excuse for failure.
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nema isprike za pogrešku.
16:14
And so when people make decisions,
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Tako kada ljudi odlučuju,
16:16
and even though the results of the decisions are good,
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iako je ishod odluke povoljan,
16:19
they feel disappointed about them;
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osjećaju se razočarano,
16:22
they blame themselves.
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krive sami sebe.
16:24
Clinical depression has exploded in the industrial world in the last generation.
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Depresija se jako povećala u razvijenim zemljama u zadnjoj generaciji.
16:28
I believe a significant -- not the only, but a significant -- contributor
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Vjerujem da je značajan -- ne jedini, ali značajan doprinos
16:32
to this explosion of depression, and also suicide,
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povećanju depresije, i samoubojstava,
16:35
is that people have experiences that are disappointing
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taj što ljudi imaju razočaravajuća iskustva
16:38
because their standards are so high,
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zbog previsokih očekivanja.
16:40
and then when they have to explain these experiences to themselves,
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A kada moraju sami sebi objasniti ta iskustva,
16:43
they think they're at fault.
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pomisle da su sami krivi.
16:45
And so the net result is that we do better in general, objectively,
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A rezultat je da postižemo objektivno više,
16:49
and we feel worse.
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a osjećamo se lošije.
16:52
So let me remind you.
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Dopustite da vas podsjetim.
16:55
This is the official dogma, the one that we all take to be true,
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Ovo je službena dogma, koju svi uzimamo kao točnu,
16:59
and it's all false. It is not true.
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no ona je lažna. Nije istina.
17:03
There's no question that some choice is better than none,
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Nema spora da je mogućnost nekakvog izbora bolja od nikakvog,
17:07
but it doesn't follow from that that more choice is better than some choice.
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ali to ne znači da je više mogućnosti bolje od manje.
17:12
There's some magical amount. I don't know what it is.
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Postoji neka čarobna količina. Ne znam koliko iznosi.
17:15
I'm pretty confident that we have long since passed the point
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Poprilično sam siguran da smo odavno prešli točku
17:18
where options improve our welfare.
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gdje opcije poboljšavaju naše blagostanje.
17:20
Now, as a policy matter -- I'm almost done --
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Što se tiče generalne ideje -- uskoro sam gotov --
17:23
as a policy matter, the thing to think about is this:
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što se tiče generalne ideje, trebalo bi razmisliti o ovome.
17:27
what enables all of this choice in industrial societies is material affluence.
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Ono što omogućava sav ovaj izbor u industrijskim društvima je materijalno bogatstvo.
17:34
There are lots of places in the world,
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Mnogo je mjesta na svijetu,
17:36
and we have heard about several of them,
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čuli smo za neka od njih,
17:38
where their problem is not that they have too much choice.
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gdje nije problem što oni imaju previše izbora.
17:40
Their problem is that they have too little.
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Problem je što imaju premalo.
17:43
So the stuff I'm talking about is the peculiar problem
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Ono o čemu govorim je jedan neobičan problem
17:46
of modern, affluent, Western societies.
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suvremenih, bogatih, zapadnih društava.
17:49
And what is so frustrating and infuriating is this:
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A ono što je toliko frustrirajuće je slijedeće:
17:53
Steve Levitt talked to you yesterday about how
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Steve Levitt je jučer govorio o tome kako
17:55
these expensive and difficult-to-install child seats don't help. It's a waste of money.
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skupe i nezgrapne sjedalice za djecu ne pomažu. One su gubitak novca.
18:06
What I'm telling you is that these expensive, complicated choices --
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Ono što ja govorim je da ove skupe, komplicirane opcije --
18:10
it's not simply that they don't help.
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ne samo da ne pomažu.
18:12
They actually hurt.
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One zapravo štete.
18:14
They actually make us worse off.
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Od njih nam je zapravo lošije.
18:17
If some of what enables people in our societies to make all of the choices we make
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Kad bi se nešto od onoga što omogućuje sve ove opcije ljudima u našem društvu
18:22
were shifted to societies in which people have too few options,
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prebaci prema društvima gdje ima premalo opcija,
18:27
not only would those people's lives be improved,
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ne samo da bi se životi tih ljudi poboljšali,
18:29
but ours would be improved also.
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ali i naši bi se također.
18:32
This is what economists call a "Pareto-improving move."
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Ovo ekonomisti nazivaju potez Pareto-poboljšavanja.
18:35
Income redistribution will make everyone better off -- not just poor people --
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Preraspodjela prihoda pomaže svima -- ne samo siromašnima --
18:40
because of how all this excess choice plagues us.
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jer sav ovaj višak guši i nas.
18:44
So to conclude. You're supposed to read this cartoon,
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Da zaključim. Vi biste trebali pročitati ovu karikaturu,
18:48
and, being a sophisticated person, say,
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i, kako ste profinjena osoba, reći,
18:50
"Ah! What does this fish know?
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"Što zna ova riba?
18:52
You know, nothing is possible in this fishbowl."
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Svi znaju da ništa nije moguće u akvariju."
18:56
Impoverished imagination, a myopic view of the world --
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Siromašna mašta, iskrivljen pogled na svijet --
18:58
and that's the way I read it at first.
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ovako sam i ja to pročitao prvi put.
19:00
The more I thought about it, however,
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No što sam više razmišljao o tome,
19:02
the more I came to the view that this fish knows something.
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više sam shvaćao da ova riba zna nešto.
19:06
Because the truth of the matter is that
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Jer, istina je da
19:08
if you shatter the fishbowl so that everything is possible,
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ako razbijete akvarij što čini sve mogućim,
19:13
you don't have freedom. You have paralysis.
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niste slobodni. Paralizirani ste.
19:16
If you shatter this fishbowl so that everything is possible,
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Ako razbijete ovaj akvarij i postignete da je sve moguće,
19:19
you decrease satisfaction.
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smanjujete zadovoljstvo.
19:23
You increase paralysis, and you decrease satisfaction.
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Povećate paralizu, a smanjujete zadovoljstvo.
19:27
Everybody needs a fishbowl.
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Svi trebaju akvarij.
19:29
This one is almost certainly too limited --
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Ovaj je gotovo sigurno preograničen --
19:31
perhaps even for the fish, certainly for us.
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možda za ribu, ali svakako za nas.
19:34
But the absence of some metaphorical fishbowl is a recipe for misery,
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Ali odsutnost nekakvog metaforičkog akvarija je recept za nezadovoljstvo,
19:38
and, I suspect, disaster.
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možda i katastrofu.
19:41
Thank you very much.
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Puno hvala.
19:43
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Barry Schwartz - PsychologistBarry Schwartz studies the link between economics and psychology, offering startling insights into modern life. Lately, working with Ken Sharpe, he's studying wisdom.
Why you should listen
In his 2004 book The Paradox of Choice, Barry Schwartz tackles one of the great mysteries of modern life: Why is it that societies of great abundance — where individuals are offered more freedom and choice (personal, professional, material) than ever before — are now witnessing a near-epidemic of depression? Conventional wisdom tells us that greater choice is for the greater good, but Schwartz argues the opposite: He makes a compelling case that the abundance of choice in today's western world is actually making us miserable.
Infinite choice is paralyzing, Schwartz argues, and exhausting to the human psyche. It leads us to set unreasonably high expectations, question our choices before we even make them and blame our failures entirely on ourselves. His relatable examples, from consumer products (jeans, TVs, salad dressings) to lifestyle choices (where to live, what job to take, who and when to marry), underscore this central point: Too much choice undermines happiness.
Schwartz's previous research has addressed morality, decision-making and the varied inter-relationships between science and society. Before Paradox he published The Costs of Living, which traces the impact of free-market thinking on the explosion of consumerism -- and the effect of the new capitalism on social and cultural institutions that once operated above the market, such as medicine, sports, and the law.
Both books level serious criticism of modern western society, illuminating the under-reported psychological plagues of our time. But they also offer concrete ideas on addressing the problems, from a personal and societal level.
Schwartz is the author of the TED Book, Why We Work.
Barry Schwartz | Speaker | TED.com