TED2016
Jennifer Kahn: Gene editing can now change an entire species -- forever
Dženifer Kan (Jennifer Kahn): Redigovanje gena sad može da izmeni čitavu vrstu - zauvek
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Genetski pogoni CRISPR omogućuju naučnicima da menjaju sekvence DNK i garantuju da će genetska osobina koja je proizašla redigovanjem biti nasledna kod budućih generacija, stvarajući mogućnost izmene celokupnih vrsta zauvek. Više od bilo čega drugog, ova tehnologija je pokrenula pitanja: kako će ova nova moć da izmeni čovečanstvo? Za izmenu čega ćemo da je koristimo? Jesmo li sad bogovi? Pridružite se novinarki Dženifer Kan dok razmišlja o ovim pitanjima i deli sa nama potencijalno moćnu primenu genetskih pogona: razvoj komaraca otpornih na bolesti, koji bi istrebili malariju i virus zika.
Jennifer Kahn - Science journalist
In articles that span the gene-editing abilities of CRISPR, the roots of psychopathic behavior in children, and much more, Jennifer Kahn weaves gripping stories from unlikely sources. Full bio
In articles that span the gene-editing abilities of CRISPR, the roots of psychopathic behavior in children, and much more, Jennifer Kahn weaves gripping stories from unlikely sources. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So this is a talk about gene drives,
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Dakle, ovo je govor o genetskom pogonu,
00:15
but I'm going to start
by telling you a brief story.
by telling you a brief story.
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ali ću početi
tako što ću vam ispričati kratku priču.
tako što ću vam ispričati kratku priču.
00:18
20 years ago, a biologist
named Anthony James
named Anthony James
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Pre 20 godina,
biolog po imenu Entoni Džejms
biolog po imenu Entoni Džejms
00:21
got obsessed with the idea
of making mosquitos
of making mosquitos
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je postao opsednut idejom
stvaranja komaraca
stvaranja komaraca
00:24
that didn't transmit malaria.
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koji ne prenose malariju.
00:27
It was a great idea,
and pretty much a complete failure.
and pretty much a complete failure.
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To je bila sjajna zamisao
i gotovo potpuni fijasko.
i gotovo potpuni fijasko.
00:32
For one thing, it turned out
to be really hard
to be really hard
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Ako ništa drugo, ispostavilo se
da je veoma teško
da je veoma teško
00:35
to make a malaria-resistant mosquito.
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stvoriti komarca otpornog na malariju.
00:38
James managed it, finally,
just a few years ago,
just a few years ago,
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Džejms je uspeo konačno u tome
pre samo nekoliko godina,
pre samo nekoliko godina,
00:41
by adding some genes
that make it impossible
that make it impossible
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dodajući neke gene koji onemogućavaju
00:44
for the malaria parasite
to survive inside the mosquito.
to survive inside the mosquito.
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malaričnom parazitu da preživi u komarcu.
00:47
But that just created another problem.
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No to je samo stvorilo drugi problem.
00:50
Now that you've got
a malaria-resistant mosquito,
a malaria-resistant mosquito,
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Sad kad imate
komarca otpornog na malariju,
komarca otpornog na malariju,
00:52
how do you get it to replace
all the malaria-carrying mosquitos?
all the malaria-carrying mosquitos?
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kako da postignete da on zameni
sve komarce nosioce malarije?
sve komarce nosioce malarije?
00:58
There are a couple options,
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Imate nekoliko opcija,
00:59
but plan A was basically to breed up
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ali je plan A u suštini bio uzgoj
01:01
a bunch of the new
genetically-engineered mosquitos
genetically-engineered mosquitos
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gomile novih
genetski dizajniranih komaraca,
genetski dizajniranih komaraca,
01:04
release them into the wild
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njihovo puštanje u divljinu
01:06
and hope that they pass on their genes.
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i nadanje da će da prenesu svoje gene.
01:08
The problem was that you'd have to release
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Problem je bio to
što biste morali da pustite
što biste morali da pustite
01:10
literally 10 times the number
of native mosquitos to work.
of native mosquitos to work.
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bukvalno 10 puta više tih komaraca
nego što ima domaćih, da bi funkcionisalo.
nego što ima domaćih, da bi funkcionisalo.
01:15
So in a village with 10,000 mosquitos,
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Pa biste u selu sa 10.000 komaraca,
01:17
you release an extra 100,000.
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pustili dodatnih 100.000.
01:20
As you might guess,
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Kao što pretpostavljate,
01:21
this was not a very popular strategy
with the villagers.
with the villagers.
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ovo nije bila naročito popularna
strategija među seljanima.
strategija među seljanima.
01:24
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:26
Then, last January,
Anthony James got an email
Anthony James got an email
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Potom je prošlog januara
Entoni Džejms primio mejl
Entoni Džejms primio mejl
01:30
from a biologist named Ethan Bier.
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od biologa po imenu Itan Bir.
01:33
Bier said that he
and his grad student Valentino Gantz
and his grad student Valentino Gantz
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Bir je rekao da su on
i njegov student Valentino Ganc
i njegov student Valentino Ganc
01:36
had stumbled on a tool
that could not only guarantee
that could not only guarantee
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nabasali na oruđe
koje ne samo da garantuje
koje ne samo da garantuje
01:39
that a particular genetic trait
would be inherited,
would be inherited,
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da će određena genetska osobina
da bude nasledna,
da bude nasledna,
01:41
but that it would spread
incredibly quickly.
incredibly quickly.
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već i da će se ona širiti
neverovatno brzo.
neverovatno brzo.
01:44
If they were right,
it would basically solve the problem
it would basically solve the problem
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Ako su u pravu,
to bi u suštini rešilo problem
to bi u suštini rešilo problem
01:47
that he and James had been
working on for 20 years.
working on for 20 years.
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na kome su on i Džejms
radili proteklih 20 godina.
radili proteklih 20 godina.
01:50
As a test, they engineered two mosquitos
to carry the anti-malaria gene
to carry the anti-malaria gene
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Kao probu, dizajnirali su dva komarca
da nose antimalarični gen
da nose antimalarični gen
01:55
and also this new tool, a gene drive,
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kao i ovo novo oruđe, genetski pogon,
01:57
which I'll explain in a minute.
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koje ću ubrzo da objasnim.
01:59
Finally, they set it up
so that any mosquitos
so that any mosquitos
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Konačno, podesili su to tako
da bilo koji komarac
da bilo koji komarac
02:01
that had inherited the anti-malaria gene
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koji je nasledio antimalarični gen
02:03
wouldn't have the usual white eyes,
but would instead have red eyes.
but would instead have red eyes.
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nema uobičajene bele oči,
već da umesto toga ima crvene oči.
već da umesto toga ima crvene oči.
02:08
That was pretty much just for convenience
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To je prosto bilo radi praktičnosti
02:10
so they could tell just at a glance
which was which.
which was which.
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kako bi na prvi pogled
mogli da kažu koji je koji.
mogli da kažu koji je koji.
02:14
So they took their two
anti-malarial, red-eyed mosquitos
anti-malarial, red-eyed mosquitos
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Pa su uzeli svoja dva
antimalarična, crvenooka komarca
antimalarična, crvenooka komarca
02:16
and put them in a box
with 30 ordinary white-eyed ones,
with 30 ordinary white-eyed ones,
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i stavili su ih u kutiju
sa 30 običnih belookih
sa 30 običnih belookih
02:19
and let them breed.
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da se razmnožavaju.
02:21
In two generations, those had produced
3,800 grandchildren.
3,800 grandchildren.
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Za dve generacije
proizveli su 3.800 unučadi.
proizveli su 3.800 unučadi.
02:26
That is not the surprising part.
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To nije iznenađujući deo.
02:28
This is the surprising part:
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Ovo je iznenađujući deo:
02:30
given that you started
with just two red-eyed mosquitos
with just two red-eyed mosquitos
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kako ste počeli samo sa dva
crvenooka komarca
crvenooka komarca
02:33
and 30 white-eyed ones,
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i 30 belookih,
02:34
you expect mostly white-eyed descendants.
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očekivali biste većinu belookih potomaka.
02:38
Instead, when James opened the box,
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Umesto toga, kad je Džejms otvorio kutiju,
02:41
all 3,800 mosquitos had red eyes.
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svih 3.800 komaraca je imalo crvene oči.
02:45
When I asked Ethan Bier about this moment,
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Kad sam upitala Itana Bira o ovom momentu,
02:47
he became so excited that he was literally
shouting into the phone.
shouting into the phone.
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toliko je bio uzbuđen
da je bukvalno vikao preko telefona.
da je bukvalno vikao preko telefona.
02:51
That's because getting
only red-eyed mosquitos
only red-eyed mosquitos
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Zato što dobijanje
samo crvenookih komaraca
samo crvenookih komaraca
02:54
violates a rule that is the absolute
cornerstone of biology,
cornerstone of biology,
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narušava zakon koji je apsolutni
temelj biologije,
temelj biologije,
02:57
Mendelian genetics.
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Mendelovu genetiku.
02:58
I'll keep this quick,
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Sažeto ću o ovome,
03:00
but Mendelian genetics
says when a male and a female mate,
says when a male and a female mate,
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ali Mendelova genetika kaže
da kada se mužjak i ženka pare,
da kada se mužjak i ženka pare,
03:02
their baby inherits half
of its DNA from each parent.
of its DNA from each parent.
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njihova beba nasleđuje
polovinu DNK od oba roditelja.
polovinu DNK od oba roditelja.
03:05
So if our original mosquito was aa
and our new mosquito is aB,
and our new mosquito is aB,
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Pa, ako je naš prvobitni komarac aa,
a naš novi komarac je aB,
a naš novi komarac je aB,
03:09
where B is the anti-malarial gene,
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gde je B antimalarični gen,
03:11
the babies should come out
in four permutations:
in four permutations:
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bebe bi trebalo da dolaze
s četiri permutacije:
s četiri permutacije:
03:13
aa, aB, aa, Ba.
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aa, aB, aa, Ba.
03:16
Instead, with the new gene drive,
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Umesto toga, novim genetskim pogonom,
03:19
they all came out aB.
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svi su bili aB.
03:21
Biologically, that shouldn't
even be possible.
even be possible.
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Biološki, to ne bi trebalo
uopšte da bude moguće.
uopšte da bude moguće.
03:24
So what happened?
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Pa šta se desilo?
03:26
The first thing that happened
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Prvo što se desilo
03:28
was the arrival of a gene-editing tool
known as CRISPR in 2012.
known as CRISPR in 2012.
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je nastanak 2012. oruđa
za redigovanje gena poznatog kao CRISPR.
za redigovanje gena poznatog kao CRISPR.
03:32
Many of you have probably
heard about CRISPR,
heard about CRISPR,
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Mnogi od vas ste verovatno čuli za CRISPR,
03:34
so I'll just say briefly that CRISPR
is a tool that allows researchers
is a tool that allows researchers
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pa ću ukratko reći da je CRISPR
oruđe koje omogućuje istraživačima
oruđe koje omogućuje istraživačima
03:38
to edit genes very precisely,
easily and quickly.
easily and quickly.
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da rediguju gene
veoma precizno, lako i brzo.
veoma precizno, lako i brzo.
03:41
It does this by harnessing a mechanism
that already existed in bacteria.
that already existed in bacteria.
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On to radi po uzoru na mehanizam
koji već postoji kod bakterija.
koji već postoji kod bakterija.
03:45
Basically, there's a protein
that acts like a scissors
that acts like a scissors
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U suštini, imamo protein
koji se ponaša poput makaza
koji se ponaša poput makaza
03:47
and cuts the DNA,
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i seče DNK,
03:49
and there's an RNA molecule
that directs the scissors
that directs the scissors
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a jedan molekul RNK upravlja makazama
03:51
to any point on the genome you want.
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do bilo koje željene tačke genoma.
03:53
The result is basically
a word processor for genes.
a word processor for genes.
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Rezultat je u suštini
procesor reči za gene.
procesor reči za gene.
03:56
You can take an entire gene
out, put one in,
out, put one in,
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Možete da izvadite čitav gen,
ubacite drugi,
ubacite drugi,
03:58
or even edit just a single
letter within a gene.
letter within a gene.
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ili čak da redigujete
samo jedno slovo unutar gena.
samo jedno slovo unutar gena.
04:01
And you can do it in nearly any species.
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A možete to da uradite
skoro kod svih vrsta.
skoro kod svih vrsta.
04:05
OK, remember how I said that gene drives
originally had two problems?
originally had two problems?
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U redu, setite se kako sam rekla
da je genetski pogon imao dva problema?
da je genetski pogon imao dva problema?
04:09
The first was that it was hard
to engineer a mosquito
to engineer a mosquito
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Prvi je bio to što je teško
stvoriti komarca
stvoriti komarca
04:12
to be malaria-resistant.
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da bude otporan na malariju.
04:14
That's basically gone now,
thanks to CRISPR.
thanks to CRISPR.
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To je prosto nestalo,
zahvaljujući CRISPR-u.
zahvaljujući CRISPR-u.
04:17
But the other problem was logistical.
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No drugi problem je bio logistički.
04:19
How do you get your trait to spread?
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Kako da uspete u širenju željene osobine?
04:22
This is where it gets clever.
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Ovde je mudrolija.
04:24
A couple years ago, a biologist
at Harvard named Kevin Esvelt
at Harvard named Kevin Esvelt
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Pre nekoliko godina,
biolog na Harvardu po imenu Kevin Esvelt
biolog na Harvardu po imenu Kevin Esvelt
04:28
wondered what would happen
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se zapitao šta bi se desilo
04:29
if you made it so that
CRISPR inserted not only your new gene
CRISPR inserted not only your new gene
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kad biste postigli da CRISPR
umetne ne samo novi gen,
umetne ne samo novi gen,
04:33
but also the machinery
that does the cutting and pasting.
that does the cutting and pasting.
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već i mehanizam
koji obavlja sečenje i lepljenje.
koji obavlja sečenje i lepljenje.
04:37
In other words, what if CRISPR
also copied and pasted itself.
also copied and pasted itself.
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Drugim rečima, šta ako bi CRISPR
takođe kopirao i lepio samog sebe.
takođe kopirao i lepio samog sebe.
04:42
You'd end up with a perpetual
motion machine for gene editing.
motion machine for gene editing.
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Dobili biste mašinu
koja konstantno izvršava redigovanje gena.
koja konstantno izvršava redigovanje gena.
04:46
And that's exactly what happened.
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A upravo to se desilo.
04:49
This CRISPR gene drive that Esvelt created
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Ovaj CRISPR genetski pogon
koji je stvorio Esvelt,
koji je stvorio Esvelt,
04:51
not only guarantees
that a trait will get passed on,
that a trait will get passed on,
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ne samo da garantuje
da će osobina da se prenese,
da će osobina da se prenese,
04:55
but if it's used in the germline cells,
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već, ako se koristi
unutar embrionskih ćelija,
unutar embrionskih ćelija,
04:58
it will automatically copy and paste
your new gene
your new gene
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on će automatski da kopira i lepi
vaš novi gen
vaš novi gen
05:00
into both chromosomes
of every single individual.
of every single individual.
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u oba hromozoma svakog pojedinca.
05:03
It's like a global search and replace,
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To je poput globalne potrage i zamene,
05:06
or in science terms, it makes
a heterozygous trait homozygous.
a heterozygous trait homozygous.
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ili naučnim rečnikom, heterozigotska
osobina postaje homozigotska.
osobina postaje homozigotska.
05:11
So, what does this mean?
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Pa, šta ovo znači?
05:13
For one thing, it means we have
a very powerful,
a very powerful,
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Ako ništa drugo, znači da imamo
veoma moćno,
veoma moćno,
05:16
but also somewhat alarming new tool.
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ali takođe unekoliko
uznemirujuće novo oruđe.
uznemirujuće novo oruđe.
05:20
Up until now, the fact that gene drives
didn't work very well
didn't work very well
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Sve do sad je činjenica da genetski pogoni
ne rade kako treba
ne rade kako treba
05:23
was actually kind of a relief.
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bila nekako umirujuća.
05:25
Normally when we mess around
with an organism's genes,
with an organism's genes,
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Obično kad se mešamo
u gene nekog organizma,
u gene nekog organizma,
05:28
we make that thing
less evolutionarily fit.
less evolutionarily fit.
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to nešto postaje
evolucijski lošije uklopljeno.
evolucijski lošije uklopljeno.
05:30
So biologists can make
all the mutant fruit flies they want
all the mutant fruit flies they want
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Pa biolozi mogu da stvore
koliko god žele mušica mutanata
koliko god žele mušica mutanata
05:33
without worrying about it.
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i da ne brinu zbog toga.
05:34
If some escape, natural selection
just takes care of them.
just takes care of them.
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Ako neke pobegnu, prirodna selekcija
će da se postara za njih.
će da se postara za njih.
05:38
What's remarkable and powerful
and frightening about gene drives
and frightening about gene drives
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Zapanjujuće, moćno i zastrašujuće
kod genetskog pogona
kod genetskog pogona
05:41
is that that will no longer be true.
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je što ovo više neće biti tačno.
05:45
Assuming that your trait does not have
a big evolutionary handicap,
a big evolutionary handicap,
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Pod pretpostavkom da vaša osobina
nema veliki evolucijski nedostatak,
nema veliki evolucijski nedostatak,
05:48
like a mosquito that can't fly,
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poput komarca koji ne leti,
05:50
the CRISPR-based gene drive
will spread the change relentlessly
will spread the change relentlessly
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genetski pogon zasnovan na CRISPR-u
će neumorno da širi promenu,
će neumorno da širi promenu,
05:54
until it is in every single individual
in the population.
in the population.
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dok bude u svakom pojedinačnom
članu populacije.
članu populacije.
05:59
Now, it isn't easy to make
a gene drive that works that well,
a gene drive that works that well,
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Sad, nije lako stvoriti
genetski pogon koji tako dobro radi,
genetski pogon koji tako dobro radi,
06:02
but James and Esvelt think that we can.
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ali Džejms i Esvelt misle da možemo.
06:05
The good news is that this opens
the door to some remarkable things.
the door to some remarkable things.
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Dobre vesti su da ovo otvara vrata
nekim izvanrednim stvarima.
nekim izvanrednim stvarima.
06:09
If you put an anti-malarial gene drive
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Ako ubacite antimalarični genetski pogon
06:11
in just 1 percent of Anopheles mosquitoes,
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u samo jedan procenat komaraca Anopheles,
06:13
the species that transmits malaria,
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vrstu koja prenosi malariju,
06:15
researchers estimate that it would spread
to the entire population in a year.
to the entire population in a year.
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istraživači procenjuju da bi se za godinu
proširio u čitavoj populaciji.
proširio u čitavoj populaciji.
06:20
So in a year, you could virtually
eliminate malaria.
eliminate malaria.
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Pa biste za godinu dana
praktično eliminisali malariju.
praktično eliminisali malariju.
06:23
In practice, we're still a few years out
from being able to do that,
from being able to do that,
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U praksi, još uvek smo nekoliko godina
daleko od te mogućnosti,
daleko od te mogućnosti,
06:27
but still, a 1,000 children
a day die of malaria.
a day die of malaria.
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ali ipak, 1.000 dece dnevno
umre od malarije.
umre od malarije.
06:30
In a year, that number
could be almost zero.
could be almost zero.
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Za godinu bi taj broj
mogao da bude skoro nula.
mogao da bude skoro nula.
06:32
The same goes for dengue fever,
chikungunya, yellow fever.
chikungunya, yellow fever.
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Isto se odnosi na groznicu denga,
virus čikungunja, žutu groznicu.
virus čikungunja, žutu groznicu.
06:37
And it gets better.
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I sve je bolje.
06:39
Say you want to get rid
of an invasive species,
of an invasive species,
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Recimo da želite da se rešite
invazivne vrste,
invazivne vrste,
06:41
like get Asian carp
out of the Great Lakes.
out of the Great Lakes.
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poput azijskog šarana iz Velikih jezera.
06:44
All you have to do is release a gene drive
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Samo treba da oslobodite genetski pogon
06:46
that makes the fish produce
only male offspring.
only male offspring.
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zbog koga bi riba proizvodila
samo muške potomke.
samo muške potomke.
06:49
In a few generations,
there'll be no females left, no more carp.
there'll be no females left, no more carp.
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Za nekoliko generacija,
ne bi bilo ženki, ne bi bilo više šarana.
ne bi bilo ženki, ne bi bilo više šarana.
U teoriji, to znači da bismo mogli
da vratimo stotine autohtonih vrsta
da vratimo stotine autohtonih vrsta
06:53
In theory, this means we could restore
hundreds of native species
hundreds of native species
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06:56
that have been pushed to the brink.
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koje su dovedene do ivice.
06:59
OK, that's the good news,
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U redu, to su dobre vesti,
07:02
this is the bad news.
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ovo su loše vesti.
07:05
Gene drives are so effective
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Genetski pogoni su toliko efikasni
07:07
that even an accidental release
could change an entire species,
could change an entire species,
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da bi čak i nenamerno oslobađanje
moglo da izmeni celokupnu vrstu
moglo da izmeni celokupnu vrstu
07:10
and often very quickly.
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i često veoma brzo.
07:13
Anthony James took good precautions.
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Entoni Džejms je vodio računa.
Uzgajao je komarce
u biozadržavajućoj laboratoriji
u biozadržavajućoj laboratoriji
07:15
He bred his mosquitos
in a bio-containment lab
in a bio-containment lab
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07:17
and he also used a species
that's not native to the US
that's not native to the US
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i takođe je koristio vrstu
koja nije autohtono američka
koja nije autohtono američka
07:20
so that even if some did escape,
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pa čak i da su neki pobegli,
07:21
they'd just die off, there'd be nothing
for them to mate with.
for them to mate with.
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prosto bi uginuli,
ne bi imali sa čime da se pare.
ne bi imali sa čime da se pare.
07:24
But it's also true that if a dozen
Asian carp with the all-male gene drive
Asian carp with the all-male gene drive
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No takođe je istina
da ako bi desetak azijskih šarana
sa samo muškim genetskim pogonom
sa samo muškim genetskim pogonom
07:28
accidentally got carried
from the Great Lakes back to Asia,
from the Great Lakes back to Asia,
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slučajno bilo vraćeno
iz Velikih jezera u Aziju,
iz Velikih jezera u Aziju,
07:32
they could potentially wipe out
the native Asian carp population.
the native Asian carp population.
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potencijalno bi mogli da izbrišu
autohtonu populaciju azijskog šarana.
autohtonu populaciju azijskog šarana.
07:37
And that's not so unlikely,
given how connected our world is.
given how connected our world is.
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A to nije toliko nemoguće,
s obzirom na povezanost našeg sveta.
s obzirom na povezanost našeg sveta.
07:40
In fact, it's why we have
an invasive species problem.
an invasive species problem.
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Zapravo, zato i imamo
problem s invazivnim vrstama.
problem s invazivnim vrstama.
07:43
And that's fish.
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A radi se o ribi.
07:45
Things like mosquitos and fruit flies,
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Stvari poput komaraca i vinskih mušica
07:48
there's literally no way to contain them.
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bukvalno nemamo način da obuzdamo.
07:50
They cross borders
and oceans all the time.
and oceans all the time.
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Sve vreme prelaze granice i okeane.
07:53
OK, the other piece of bad news
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U redu, drugi deo loših vesti
07:55
is that a gene drive
might not stay confined
might not stay confined
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je da genetski pogon
možda ne ostane ograničen
možda ne ostane ograničen
07:58
to what we call the target species.
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onim što nazivamo ciljnim vrstama.
08:00
That's because of gene flow,
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A to je zbog protoka gena,
08:02
which is a fancy way of saying
that neighboring species
that neighboring species
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što je kitnjast način da se kaže
da se susedne vrste
da se susedne vrste
08:04
sometimes interbreed.
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ponekad međusobno pare.
08:05
If that happens, it's possible
a gene drive could cross over,
a gene drive could cross over,
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Ako se to desi, moguće je
da se genetski pogon prenese,
da se genetski pogon prenese,
08:09
like Asian carp could infect
some other kind of carp.
some other kind of carp.
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npr, azijski šaran
može da zarazi druge vrste šarana.
može da zarazi druge vrste šarana.
08:11
That's not so bad if your drive
just promotes a trait, like eye color.
just promotes a trait, like eye color.
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To nije tako loše, ako pogon
samo promoviše osobinu, poput boje očiju.
samo promoviše osobinu, poput boje očiju.
08:15
In fact, there's a decent
chance that we'll see
chance that we'll see
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Zapravo, postoje skromne šanse
da ćemo da vidimo
da ćemo da vidimo
08:17
a wave of very weird fruit flies
in the near future.
in the near future.
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talas veoma čudnih vinskih mušica
u skorijoj budućnosti.
u skorijoj budućnosti.
08:21
But it could be a disaster
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Ali katastrofalno je
08:22
if your drive is deigned
to eliminate the species entirely.
to eliminate the species entirely.
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ako je pogon osmišljen
da u potpunosti eliminiše vrstu.
da u potpunosti eliminiše vrstu.
08:26
The last worrisome thing
is that the technology to do this,
is that the technology to do this,
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Poslednja zabrinjavajuća stvar
je da je tehnologija za ovo,
je da je tehnologija za ovo,
08:29
to genetically engineer an organism
and include a gene drive,
and include a gene drive,
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za genetski inženjering organizma
i uključivanje genetskog pogona,
i uključivanje genetskog pogona,
08:33
is something that basically any lab
in the world can do.
in the world can do.
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nešto što u suštini svaka laboratorija
u svetu može da napravi.
u svetu može da napravi.
08:36
An undergraduate can do it.
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Student to može da uradi.
08:39
A talented high schooler
with some equipment can do it.
with some equipment can do it.
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Talentovani srednjoškolac
s nešto opreme može to da uradi.
s nešto opreme može to da uradi.
08:44
Now, I'm guessing
that this sounds terrifying.
that this sounds terrifying.
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Sad, pretpostavljam
da ovo zvuči zastrašujuće.
da ovo zvuči zastrašujuće.
08:47
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
08:49
Interestingly though,
nearly every scientist I talk to
nearly every scientist I talk to
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Zanimljivo je pak,
da skoro svaki naučnik s kojim razgovaram
da skoro svaki naučnik s kojim razgovaram
08:52
seemed to think that gene drives were not
actually that frightening or dangerous.
actually that frightening or dangerous.
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čini se da misli kako genetski pogoni
zapravo i nisu toliko strašni, ni opasni.
zapravo i nisu toliko strašni, ni opasni.
08:56
Partly because they believe
that scientists will be
that scientists will be
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Delimično jer veruju
da će naučnici da budu
da će naučnici da budu
08:59
very cautious and responsible
about using them.
about using them.
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veoma oprezni i odgovorni
kod njihove upotrebe.
kod njihove upotrebe.
09:01
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
09:02
So far, that's been true.
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Do sad je to bilo tako.
Ali genetski pogoni takođe imaju
neka stvarna ograničenja.
neka stvarna ograničenja.
09:04
But gene drives also have
some actual limitations.
some actual limitations.
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09:07
So for one thing, they work
only in sexually reproducing species.
only in sexually reproducing species.
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Kao na primer, funkcionišu jedino
kod vrsta koje se razmnožavaju seksualno.
kod vrsta koje se razmnožavaju seksualno.
09:10
So thank goodness, they can't be used
to engineer viruses or bacteria.
to engineer viruses or bacteria.
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Pa, srećom, ne mogu da se koriste
za pravljenje virusa ili bakterija.
za pravljenje virusa ili bakterija.
09:14
Also, the trait spreads
only with each successive generation.
only with each successive generation.
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Takođe, ciljana osobina se širi
jedino kod svake naredne generacije.
jedino kod svake naredne generacije.
09:17
So changing or eliminating a population
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Pa je izmena ili eliminacija populacije
09:19
is practical only if that species
has a fast reproductive cycle,
has a fast reproductive cycle,
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praktična jedino ako ta vrsta
ima brz reproduktivni ciklus,
ima brz reproduktivni ciklus,
09:22
like insects or maybe
small vertebrates like mice or fish.
small vertebrates like mice or fish.
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2800
poput insekata ili pak
manjih kičmenjaka, miševa ili riba.
manjih kičmenjaka, miševa ili riba.
09:26
In elephants or people,
it would take centuries
it would take centuries
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Kod slonova ili ljudi,
trebalo bi vekovi da prođu
trebalo bi vekovi da prođu
09:28
for a trait to spread
widely enough to matter.
widely enough to matter.
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da bi se osobina proširila
dovoljno da ima značaj.
dovoljno da ima značaj.
09:32
Also, even with CRISPR, it's not that easy
to engineer a truly devastating trait.
to engineer a truly devastating trait.
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Takođe, čak ni uz CRISPR nije tako lako
proizvesti istinski razornu osobinu.
proizvesti istinski razornu osobinu.
Recimo da želite stvoriti vinsku mušicu
09:38
Say you wanted to make a fruit fly
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09:39
that feeds on ordinary fruit
instead of rotting fruit,
instead of rotting fruit,
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koja se hrani običnim voćem,
a ne trulim voćem,
a ne trulim voćem,
09:42
with the aim of sabotaging
American agriculture.
American agriculture.
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u cilju sabotiranja
američke poljoprivrede.
američke poljoprivrede.
09:45
First, you'd have to figure out
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1530
Prvo biste morali da otkrijete
09:46
which genes control
what the fly wants to eat,
what the fly wants to eat,
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2772
koji geni kontrolišu
šta mušica želi da jede,
šta mušica želi da jede,
09:49
which is already a very long
and complicated project.
and complicated project.
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2547
a to je već dug i složen projekat.
Potom biste morali da izmenite te gene
zarad izmene mušicinog ponašanja
zarad izmene mušicinog ponašanja
09:52
Then you'd have to alter those genes
to change the fly's behavior
to change the fly's behavior
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09:55
to whatever you'd want it to be,
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1538
u ono koje je poželjno za vas,
09:57
which is an even longer
and more complicated project.
and more complicated project.
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2801
a to je čak i duži
i još složeniji projekat.
i još složeniji projekat.
10:00
And it might not even work,
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1318
A možda čak i ne uspete
10:01
because the genes
that control behavior are complex.
that control behavior are complex.
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jer su geni
koji kontrolišu ponašanje složeni.
koji kontrolišu ponašanje složeni.
10:04
So if you're a terrorist
and have to choose
and have to choose
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2008
Pa, ako ste terorista
i morate da izaberete
i morate da izaberete
10:06
between starting a grueling
basic research program
basic research program
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2358
između pokretanja napornog
istraživačkog programa
istraživačkog programa
10:08
that will require years of meticulous
lab work and still might not pan out,
lab work and still might not pan out,
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koj bi zahtevao godine minucioznog
laboratorijskog rada koji može da omane
laboratorijskog rada koji može da omane
ili prostog raznosenja stvari?
10:12
or just blowing stuff up?
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1347
10:13
You'll probably choose the later.
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Verovatno ćete izabrati drugo.
10:15
This is especially true
because at least in theory,
because at least in theory,
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Ovo je naročito tačno jer, bar u teoriji,
10:17
it should be pretty easy
to build what's called a reversal drive.
to build what's called a reversal drive.
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3134
trebalo bi da je prilično lako
napraviti reverzibilni pogon.
napraviti reverzibilni pogon.
10:21
That's one that basically overwrites
the change made by the first gene drive.
the change made by the first gene drive.
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To je pogon koji u suštini briše
promenu koju je uzrokovao prvi pogon.
promenu koju je uzrokovao prvi pogon.
10:24
So if you don't like
the effects of a change,
the effects of a change,
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Pa, ako vam se ne sviđaju efekti izmene,
možete prosto da oslobodite drugi pogon
koji će to da poništi,
koji će to da poništi,
10:27
you can just release a second drive
that will cancel it out,
that will cancel it out,
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10:29
at least in theory.
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bar u teoriji.
10:33
OK, so where does this leave us?
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U redu, šta nam preostaje?
10:36
We now have the ability
to change entire species at will.
to change entire species at will.
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3595
Sad imamo sposobnost
da po želji promenimo čitavu vrstu.
da po želji promenimo čitavu vrstu.
10:41
Should we?
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Da li bismo trebali?
10:42
Are we gods now?
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Da li smo sad bogovi?
10:45
I'm not sure I'd say that.
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1333
Nisam sigurna da bih to rekla.
10:48
But I would say this:
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Ali bih rekla sledeće:
10:50
first, some very smart people
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pod jedan, neki veoma pametni ljudi
10:52
are even now debating
how to regulate gene drives.
how to regulate gene drives.
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čak i sad raspravljaju
kako da regulišu genetske pogone.
kako da regulišu genetske pogone.
10:55
At the same time,
some other very smart people
some other very smart people
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Istovremeno, neki drugi
veoma pametni ljudi
veoma pametni ljudi
10:58
are working hard to create safeguards,
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2111
vredno rade na stvaranju obezbeđenja,
11:00
like gene drives that self-regulate
or peter out after a few generations.
or peter out after a few generations.
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3552
kao genetski pogoni koji se samoregulišu
ili nestaju nakon par generacija.
ili nestaju nakon par generacija.
11:04
That's great.
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1200
To je sjajno.
11:06
But this technology still requires
a conversation.
a conversation.
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2547
Ali ova tehnologija
i dalje zahteva diskusiju.
i dalje zahteva diskusiju.
Shodno prirodi genetskih pogona,
11:10
And given the nature of gene drives,
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1730
11:11
that conversation has to be global.
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1690
razgovor bi morao da bude globalan.
11:14
What if Kenya wants to use a drive
but Tanzania doesn't?
but Tanzania doesn't?
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2707
Šta ako Kenija želi da koristi pogon,
ali Tanzanija ne želi?
ali Tanzanija ne želi?
11:17
Who decides whether to release
a gene drive that can fly?
a gene drive that can fly?
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Ko odlučuje da li da oslobodi
genetski pogon koji leti?
genetski pogon koji leti?
11:22
I don't have the answer to that question.
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1954
Nemam odgovor na to pitanje.
11:25
All we can do going forward, I think,
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2008
Sve što možemo u buduće, mislim,
11:27
is talk honestly
about the risks and benefits
about the risks and benefits
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2834
je da iskreno razgovaramo
o rizicima i prednostima
o rizicima i prednostima
11:30
and take responsibility for our choices.
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i da preuzmemo odgovornost za naše izbore.
11:33
By that I mean, not just the choice
to use a gene drive,
to use a gene drive,
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3913
Pod tim mislim, ne samo na izbor
korišćenja genetskog pogona,
korišćenja genetskog pogona,
11:37
but also the choice not to use one.
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1999
već i na izbor njegove neupotrebe.
11:41
Humans have a tendency to assume
that the safest option
that the safest option
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2977
Ljudi teže pretpostavci
da je najbezbednija opcija
da je najbezbednija opcija
11:44
is to preserve the status quo.
241
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1792
da se čuva status kvo.
11:46
But that's not always the case.
242
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1572
Ali to nije uvek tako.
11:49
Gene drives have risks,
and those need to be discussed,
and those need to be discussed,
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3401
Genetski pogoni nose rizike,
a o njima mora da se raspravlja,
a o njima mora da se raspravlja,
11:53
but malaria exists now
and kills 1,000 people a day.
and kills 1,000 people a day.
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ali malarija je sada prisutna
i ubija svakodnevno 1000 ljudi.
i ubija svakodnevno 1000 ljudi.
11:56
To combat it, we spray pesticides
that do grave damage to other species,
that do grave damage to other species,
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3564
Protiv nje koristimo pesticide
koji nanose ozbiljnu štetu drugim vrstama,
koji nanose ozbiljnu štetu drugim vrstama,
12:00
including amphibians and birds.
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uključujući vodozemce i ptice.
12:03
So when you hear about gene drives
in the coming months,
in the coming months,
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2864
Pa, kad narednih meseci budete slušali
o genetskim pogonima,
o genetskim pogonima,
12:06
and trust me, you will
be hearing about them,
be hearing about them,
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a verujte mi, slušaćete o njima,
12:08
remember that.
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1544
setite se ovoga.
12:10
It can be frightening to act,
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2020
Može da bude zastrašujuće delati,
12:12
but sometimes, not acting is worse.
251
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ali je ponekad gore ne delati.
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jennifer Kahn - Science journalistIn articles that span the gene-editing abilities of CRISPR, the roots of psychopathic behavior in children, and much more, Jennifer Kahn weaves gripping stories from unlikely sources.
Why you should listen
Jennifer Kahn likes to seek out complex stories, with the goal of illuminating their nuances. She teaches in the magazine program at the UC Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism, and is a contributing writer for the New York Times Magazine; she has written features and cover stories for The New Yorker, National Geographic, Outside, Wired and many more.
Her work has appeared in the Best American Science Writing anthology series four times, most recently for the New Yorker story “A Cloud of Smoke,” a story on the complicated death of a policeman after 9/11.
Jennifer Kahn | Speaker | TED.com