TED2016
Jennifer Kahn: Gene editing can now change an entire species -- forever
珍妮佛．可汗: 基因編輯技術現在能永遠地改變整個物種
Filmed:
Readability: 4.9
1,922,129 views
CRISPR 基因驅動技術可以讓科學家改變 DNA 序列，並保證所得到的編輯遺傳特徵可以被未來的後代所遺傳，這項技術開闢了永遠改變整個物種可能性的大門。比起其它更重要的是，該技術引發了新的問題：這項新技術將如何影響人類？我們將用它來改變甚麼呢？我們現在是上帝了嗎？讓我們一起與記者珍妮佛．可汗（Jennifer Kahn）思考這些問題，並聽她分享基因驅動裝置潛在的強大應用方式：根除瘧疾和寨卡病毒的抗病蚊子的發展。
Jennifer Kahn - Science journalist
In articles that span the gene-editing abilities of CRISPR, the roots of psychopathic behavior in children, and much more, Jennifer Kahn weaves gripping stories from unlikely sources. Full bio
In articles that span the gene-editing abilities of CRISPR, the roots of psychopathic behavior in children, and much more, Jennifer Kahn weaves gripping stories from unlikely sources. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So this is a talk about gene drives,
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這次的演講是有關於
「基因驅動技術」，
「基因驅動技術」，
00:15
but I'm going to start
by telling you a brief story.
by telling you a brief story.
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但我要從一個小故事開始說起。
00:18
20 years ago, a biologist
named Anthony James
named Anthony James
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20年前，有一位叫安東尼．詹姆斯
的生物學家，
的生物學家，
00:21
got obsessed with the idea
of making mosquitos
of making mosquitos
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他迷上了一個
00:24
that didn't transmit malaria.
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製造出不會傳染
瘧疾的蚊子的想法，
瘧疾的蚊子的想法，
00:27
It was a great idea,
and pretty much a complete failure.
and pretty much a complete failure.
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想法很棒，但幾乎差點失敗。
00:32
For one thing, it turned out
to be really hard
to be really hard
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首先，要做出抗瘧疾的蚊子，
00:35
to make a malaria-resistant mosquito.
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真的相當困難。
00:38
James managed it, finally,
just a few years ago,
just a few years ago,
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但詹姆士在幾年前，
終於做到了，
終於做到了，
00:41
by adding some genes
that make it impossible
that make it impossible
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他是藉由增加基因的方式，
00:44
for the malaria parasite
to survive inside the mosquito.
to survive inside the mosquito.
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讓瘧疾的寄生蟲無法在
蚊子身上生存。
蚊子身上生存。
00:47
But that just created another problem.
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但這會衍生出另外一個問題。
00:50
Now that you've got
a malaria-resistant mosquito,
a malaria-resistant mosquito,
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現在，你有一隻抗瘧疾的蚊子，
00:52
how do you get it to replace
all the malaria-carrying mosquitos?
all the malaria-carrying mosquitos?
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但你要如何讓牠取代掉所有
有攜帶瘧疾病原的蚊子？
有攜帶瘧疾病原的蚊子？
00:58
There are a couple options,
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有幾個選項可以選，
00:59
but plan A was basically to breed up
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A 計畫基本上就是，
01:01
a bunch of the new
genetically-engineered mosquitos
genetically-engineered mosquitos
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培育出一大堆新的
基因改造過的蚊子，
基因改造過的蚊子，
01:04
release them into the wild
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然後放生牠們，
01:06
and hope that they pass on their genes.
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並祈禱牠們的基因
可以被遺傳下去。
可以被遺傳下去。
01:08
The problem was that you'd have to release
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但問題是，你得釋放出
01:10
literally 10 times the number
of native mosquitos to work.
of native mosquitos to work.
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將近十倍當地蚊子的數量，
才會有效果。
才會有效果。
01:15
So in a village with 10,000 mosquitos,
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所以，一個有 1 萬隻蚊子的村落，
01:17
you release an extra 100,000.
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你得釋放出 10 萬隻才能搞定。
01:20
As you might guess,
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你應該猜的到，
01:21
this was not a very popular strategy
with the villagers.
with the villagers.
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對居民來說，這不是一個
很受歡迎的策略。
很受歡迎的策略。
01:24
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
01:26
Then, last January,
Anthony James got an email
Anthony James got an email
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之後，去年一月，
詹姆士收到一封
詹姆士收到一封
01:30
from a biologist named Ethan Bier.
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來自一位叫做伊桑．畢爾
生物學家的 E-mail。
生物學家的 E-mail。
01:33
Bier said that he
and his grad student Valentino Gantz
and his grad student Valentino Gantz
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畢爾說，他和他的一位名叫
范倫鐵諾．岡茲的研究生
范倫鐵諾．岡茲的研究生
01:36
had stumbled on a tool
that could not only guarantee
that could not only guarantee
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意外發現了一個工具，
它不僅可以保證
它不僅可以保證
01:39
that a particular genetic trait
would be inherited,
would be inherited,
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特定的基因特徵
可以被遺傳到下一代，
可以被遺傳到下一代，
01:41
but that it would spread
incredibly quickly.
incredibly quickly.
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還可以讓它快速地繁殖擴散。
01:44
If they were right,
it would basically solve the problem
it would basically solve the problem
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如果他們是對的，
基本上就可以解決掉
基本上就可以解決掉
01:47
that he and James had been
working on for 20 years.
working on for 20 years.
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他和詹姆上這 20 年來
一直想要解決的問題。
一直想要解決的問題。
01:50
As a test, they engineered two mosquitos
to carry the anti-malaria gene
to carry the anti-malaria gene
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在實測中，他們做出了兩隻
帶有抗瘧疾基因的蚊子，
帶有抗瘧疾基因的蚊子，
01:55
and also this new tool, a gene drive,
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以及這項新工具，
「基因驅動技術」，
「基因驅動技術」，
01:57
which I'll explain in a minute.
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我晚點會在做解釋。
01:59
Finally, they set it up
so that any mosquitos
so that any mosquitos
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最後，他們設置出了一種機制，
02:01
that had inherited the anti-malaria gene
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他們讓帶有抗瘧疾
基因的蚊子
基因的蚊子
02:03
wouldn't have the usual white eyes,
but would instead have red eyes.
but would instead have red eyes.
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不再有正常的白色眼睛，
取而代之的是紅色的眼睛。
取而代之的是紅色的眼睛。
02:08
That was pretty much just for convenience
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這是一個相當方便的辨認方式，
02:10
so they could tell just at a glance
which was which.
which was which.
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因為他們只要看一眼，
就能分辨出蚊子的種類。
就能分辨出蚊子的種類。
02:14
So they took their two
anti-malarial, red-eyed mosquitos
anti-malarial, red-eyed mosquitos
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所以，他們把兩隻
抗瘧疾、紅眼的蚊子，
抗瘧疾、紅眼的蚊子，
02:16
and put them in a box
with 30 ordinary white-eyed ones,
with 30 ordinary white-eyed ones,
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放進一個裝有30隻
正常白眼蚊子的箱子中，
正常白眼蚊子的箱子中，
02:19
and let them breed.
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然後讓牠們繁殖。
02:21
In two generations, those had produced
3,800 grandchildren.
3,800 grandchildren.
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在經過兩個世代後，這些蚊子
繁殖出 3800 隻的後代。
繁殖出 3800 隻的後代。
02:26
That is not the surprising part.
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這一段不最驚人的部分。
02:28
This is the surprising part:
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接下來這一段才是：
02:30
given that you started
with just two red-eyed mosquitos
with just two red-eyed mosquitos
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假定，你從只有兩隻紅眼蚊子
02:33
and 30 white-eyed ones,
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加上30隻白眼蚊子開始繁殖，
02:34
you expect mostly white-eyed descendants.
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你會以為牠們的後代
應該都是白眼的，
應該都是白眼的，
02:38
Instead, when James opened the box,
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但在詹姆士打開箱子後，
他發現，
他發現，
02:41
all 3,800 mosquitos had red eyes.
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全部的 3800 隻蚊子都是紅眼的。
02:45
When I asked Ethan Bier about this moment,
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當我問伊桑．畢爾這件事時，
02:47
he became so excited that he was literally
shouting into the phone.
shouting into the phone.
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他在電話那頭簡直興奮地不得了。
02:51
That's because getting
only red-eyed mosquitos
only red-eyed mosquitos
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那是因為，你如果
只剩下紅眼蚊子
只剩下紅眼蚊子
02:54
violates a rule that is the absolute
cornerstone of biology,
cornerstone of biology,
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那就是違反了
生物學的基礎法則，
生物學的基礎法則，
02:57
Mendelian genetics.
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孟德爾的遺傳定律。
02:58
I'll keep this quick,
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我簡單說明一下，
03:00
but Mendelian genetics
says when a male and a female mate,
says when a male and a female mate,
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孟德爾的遺傳定律說明，
當一公一母交配時，
當一公一母交配時，
03:02
their baby inherits half
of its DNA from each parent.
of its DNA from each parent.
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他們的後代會遺傳到
來自上一代各半的 DNA。
來自上一代各半的 DNA。
03:05
So if our original mosquito was aa
and our new mosquito is aB,
and our new mosquito is aB,
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所以如果原生種蚊子是 aa，
新的蚊子是 aB，
新的蚊子是 aB，
03:09
where B is the anti-malarial gene,
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B 代表抗瘧疾的基因，
03:11
the babies should come out
in four permutations:
in four permutations:
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那他們的後代，
會有四種排列組合：
會有四種排列組合：
03:13
aa, aB, aa, Ba.
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aa, aB, aa, Ba。
03:16
Instead, with the new gene drive,
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但，如果你使用了
新的基因驅動技術，
新的基因驅動技術，
03:19
they all came out aB.
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他們會全部變成aB。
03:21
Biologically, that shouldn't
even be possible.
even be possible.
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在生物學上，根本
不會有這種情況發生。
不會有這種情況發生。
03:24
So what happened?
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但發生了甚麼事？
03:26
The first thing that happened
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第一件發生的事情就是
03:28
was the arrival of a gene-editing tool
known as CRISPR in 2012.
known as CRISPR in 2012.
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2012 年基因編輯技術
CRISPER 的誕生。
CRISPER 的誕生。
03:32
Many of you have probably
heard about CRISPR,
heard about CRISPR,
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你們當中很多人可能都
聽過 CRISPER 這項技術了 ，
聽過 CRISPER 這項技術了 ，
03:34
so I'll just say briefly that CRISPR
is a tool that allows researchers
is a tool that allows researchers
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所以我簡單說明一下，
CRISPER 是一種工具，
CRISPER 是一種工具，
03:38
to edit genes very precisely,
easily and quickly.
easily and quickly.
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它可以讓研究人員以非常精準、
簡單、快速的方式來編輯 DNA 。
簡單、快速的方式來編輯 DNA 。
03:41
It does this by harnessing a mechanism
that already existed in bacteria.
that already existed in bacteria.
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它是藉由控制一個現存在
細菌裡面的一個機制。
細菌裡面的一個機制。
03:45
Basically, there's a protein
that acts like a scissors
that acts like a scissors
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基本上，會有一個像
剪刀一樣功能的蛋白質，
剪刀一樣功能的蛋白質，
03:47
and cuts the DNA,
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它會切斷 DNA，
03:49
and there's an RNA molecule
that directs the scissors
that directs the scissors
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然後會有一個
RNA 分子導引剪刀
RNA 分子導引剪刀
03:51
to any point on the genome you want.
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往你希望它剪掉的地方去。
03:53
The result is basically
a word processor for genes.
a word processor for genes.
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它所形成的結果，基本上
就是一個基因造字的過程。
就是一個基因造字的過程。
03:56
You can take an entire gene
out, put one in,
out, put one in,
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你可以抽出整段基因，
然後換另一段進去，
然後換另一段進去，
03:58
or even edit just a single
letter within a gene.
letter within a gene.
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甚至僅是編輯
基因裡的其中一個字母。
基因裡的其中一個字母。
04:01
And you can do it in nearly any species.
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而且你可以在任何
物種上做這件事。
物種上做這件事。
04:05
OK, remember how I said that gene drives
originally had two problems?
originally had two problems?
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好的，還記得我剛提的，
基因驅動技術原本的兩個問題嗎？
基因驅動技術原本的兩個問題嗎？
04:09
The first was that it was hard
to engineer a mosquito
to engineer a mosquito
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第一個就是，要做出一隻
04:12
to be malaria-resistant.
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有抗瘧疾的蚊子是相當困難的。
04:14
That's basically gone now,
thanks to CRISPR.
thanks to CRISPR.
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而現在有了 CRISPR ，
這一難題迎刃而解。
這一難題迎刃而解。
04:17
But the other problem was logistical.
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但另一個是後續支援的問題。
04:19
How do you get your trait to spread?
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你要如何把你的
生物特性散播出去？
生物特性散播出去？
04:22
This is where it gets clever.
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這裡有一個聰明的方法。
04:24
A couple years ago, a biologist
at Harvard named Kevin Esvelt
at Harvard named Kevin Esvelt
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幾年前，哈佛大學的一位生物學家，
凱文．伊斯維特
凱文．伊斯維特
04:28
wondered what would happen
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他想如果 CRISPER
不僅只有插入新基因的功能，
不僅只有插入新基因的功能，
04:29
if you made it so that
CRISPR inserted not only your new gene
CRISPR inserted not only your new gene
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如果也含有剪下，貼上
04:33
but also the machinery
that does the cutting and pasting.
that does the cutting and pasting.
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的功能，那會怎樣？
04:37
In other words, what if CRISPR
also copied and pasted itself.
also copied and pasted itself.
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換句話說，要是 CRISPER
本身也有複製及貼上的功能。
本身也有複製及貼上的功能。
04:42
You'd end up with a perpetual
motion machine for gene editing.
motion machine for gene editing.
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那你就會得到一個
永續性的基因編輯機制。
永續性的基因編輯機制。
04:46
And that's exactly what happened.
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而事情就真的發生了。
04:49
This CRISPR gene drive that Esvelt created
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伊斯維特創造的
CRISPER 基因驅動技術，
CRISPER 基因驅動技術，
04:51
not only guarantees
that a trait will get passed on,
that a trait will get passed on,
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不僅可以保證基因特徵可以被遺傳，
04:55
but if it's used in the germline cells,
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也可以保證能用在生殖細胞上，
04:58
it will automatically copy and paste
your new gene
your new gene
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它會自動地複製、
貼上你的新基因
貼上你的新基因
05:00
into both chromosomes
of every single individual.
of every single individual.
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到每個個體的染色體上。
05:03
It's like a global search and replace,
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它就像是全球檢索
並取代的功能。
並取代的功能。
05:06
or in science terms, it makes
a heterozygous trait homozygous.
a heterozygous trait homozygous.
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或者以科學的術語來說，它造成了
一個「雜合子特徵純合化」現象
一個「雜合子特徵純合化」現象
05:11
So, what does this mean?
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所以，這意味著什麼？
05:13
For one thing, it means we have
a very powerful,
a very powerful,
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首先，意味著，
我們有了一個非常強大
我們有了一個非常強大
05:16
but also somewhat alarming new tool.
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但也有點令人害怕的新工具。
05:20
Up until now, the fact that gene drives
didn't work very well
didn't work very well
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到目前為止，基因驅動技術
運作地還不是很順暢的事實
運作地還不是很順暢的事實
05:23
was actually kind of a relief.
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的確還算有點令人欣慰。
05:25
Normally when we mess around
with an organism's genes,
with an organism's genes,
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按理說，當我們搞亂掉
一個生物的基因，
一個生物的基因，
05:28
we make that thing
less evolutionarily fit.
less evolutionarily fit.
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我們只要降低這個東西的
進化適應力即可。
進化適應力即可。
05:30
So biologists can make
all the mutant fruit flies they want
all the mutant fruit flies they want
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所以，生物學家們
可以無後顧之憂地
可以無後顧之憂地
05:33
without worrying about it.
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製造出任何他們想要的
果蠅突變體。
果蠅突變體。
05:34
If some escape, natural selection
just takes care of them.
just takes care of them.
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如果有一些逃走了，大自然選擇
（物競天擇）就可以處理這件事。
（物競天擇）就可以處理這件事。
05:38
What's remarkable and powerful
and frightening about gene drives
and frightening about gene drives
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但基因驅動技術最顯著有力、
令人害怕的地方就是
令人害怕的地方就是
05:41
is that that will no longer be true.
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這樣的狀況
可能將永遠不存在。
可能將永遠不存在。
05:45
Assuming that your trait does not have
a big evolutionary handicap,
a big evolutionary handicap,
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假設你的遺傳特徵如果沒有一個
很大的演化肢障產生，
很大的演化肢障產生，
05:48
like a mosquito that can't fly,
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好比蚊子沒有辦法飛，
05:50
the CRISPR-based gene drive
will spread the change relentlessly
will spread the change relentlessly
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以 CRISPER 為基礎的基因驅動，
將把這個改變給持續散播出去，
將把這個改變給持續散播出去，
05:54
until it is in every single individual
in the population.
in the population.
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直到它深入到族群中
的每個個體身上。
的每個個體身上。
05:59
Now, it isn't easy to make
a gene drive that works that well,
a gene drive that works that well,
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現在，要讓基因驅動技術
量好運行，並非易事，
量好運行，並非易事，
06:02
but James and Esvelt think that we can.
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但詹姆士及伊斯維特
認為我們做的到。
認為我們做的到。
06:05
The good news is that this opens
the door to some remarkable things.
the door to some remarkable things.
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好消息是，這項技術為一些
不可思議的事情打開了一扇門。
不可思議的事情打開了一扇門。
06:09
If you put an anti-malarial gene drive
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你只要在 1% 的
06:11
in just 1 percent of Anopheles mosquitoes,
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攜帶瘧疾的蚊子身上使用
06:13
the species that transmits malaria,
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抗瘧疾基因驅動技術，
06:15
researchers estimate that it would spread
to the entire population in a year.
to the entire population in a year.
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研究人員預估，一年內這一基因
就可以散播到整個種群中。
就可以散播到整個種群中。
06:20
So in a year, you could virtually
eliminate malaria.
eliminate malaria.
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所以，只要一年的時間，
你就可以完全消滅掉瘧疾。
你就可以完全消滅掉瘧疾。
06:23
In practice, we're still a few years out
from being able to do that,
from being able to do that,
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實際上，
我們仍需好幾年才能做到，
我們仍需好幾年才能做到，
06:27
but still, a 1,000 children
a day die of malaria.
a day die of malaria.
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但每天仍然有 1000 名
兒童死於瘧疾。
兒童死於瘧疾。
06:30
In a year, that number
could be almost zero.
could be almost zero.
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只要一年的時間，就幾乎
可以把數字降到零。
可以把數字降到零。
06:32
The same goes for dengue fever,
chikungunya, yellow fever.
chikungunya, yellow fever.
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同樣的，它還可以運用在登革熱、
基孔肯雅熱，黃熱病上。
基孔肯雅熱，黃熱病上。
06:37
And it gets better.
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更好的是，
06:39
Say you want to get rid
of an invasive species,
of an invasive species,
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假設你想根除掉一個
外來入侵的物種，
外來入侵的物種，
06:41
like get Asian carp
out of the Great Lakes.
out of the Great Lakes.
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像是把亞洲鯉魚趕出五大湖。
06:44
All you have to do is release a gene drive
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你所要做的就是，釋放一種
06:46
that makes the fish produce
only male offspring.
only male offspring.
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只能繁衍出雄性後代
的基因驅動，
的基因驅動，
06:49
In a few generations,
there'll be no females left, no more carp.
there'll be no females left, no more carp.
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幾代之後，没有了雌性鯉魚，
該物種就隨之消失了。
該物種就隨之消失了。
06:53
In theory, this means we could restore
hundreds of native species
hundreds of native species
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理論上，這意味著，
我們可以透過這種方式，
我們可以透過這種方式，
06:56
that have been pushed to the brink.
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復育上百種瀕臨絕種的生物。
06:59
OK, that's the good news,
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好的，這是好消息的部分，
07:02
this is the bad news.
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接下來，是壞消息的部分。
07:05
Gene drives are so effective
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基因驅動技術因為很有效率，
07:07
that even an accidental release
could change an entire species,
could change an entire species,
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以至於不經意釋放的樣本，
通常都可能在短時間內
通常都可能在短時間內
07:10
and often very quickly.
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引起整個種群的巨大改變。
07:13
Anthony James took good precautions.
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詹姆士做了很好的預防措施。
07:15
He bred his mosquitos
in a bio-containment lab
in a bio-containment lab
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他都是在生物控制實驗室裡
培養他的蚊子，
培養他的蚊子，
07:17
and he also used a species
that's not native to the US
that's not native to the US
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而且他用的都是
非美國本土的物種，
非美國本土的物種，
07:20
so that even if some did escape,
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所以，即使有一些跑走了，
07:21
they'd just die off, there'd be nothing
for them to mate with.
for them to mate with.
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也會因為沒有辦法交配而死。
07:24
But it's also true that if a dozen
Asian carp with the all-male gene drive
Asian carp with the all-male gene drive
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但另一個事實就是，如果有一些帶有
全雄性基因驅動的亞洲鯉魚，
全雄性基因驅動的亞洲鯉魚，
07:28
accidentally got carried
from the Great Lakes back to Asia,
from the Great Lakes back to Asia,
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不小心從五大湖被帶回到亞洲，
07:32
they could potentially wipe out
the native Asian carp population.
the native Asian carp population.
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牠們也很有可能會毀滅掉
整個當地的亞洲鯉魚物種。
整個當地的亞洲鯉魚物種。
07:37
And that's not so unlikely,
given how connected our world is.
given how connected our world is.
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現在世界聯繫的緊密程度
這是很有可能會發生的。
這是很有可能會發生的。
07:40
In fact, it's why we have
an invasive species problem.
an invasive species problem.
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事實上，這也是為什麼我們
有外來物種入侵的問題。
有外來物種入侵的問題。
07:43
And that's fish.
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這是魚類的情況。
07:45
Things like mosquitos and fruit flies,
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對蚊子和果蠅這一類
會飛的物種而言，
會飛的物種而言，
07:48
there's literally no way to contain them.
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基本上是沒有辦法限制牠們的。
07:50
They cross borders
and oceans all the time.
and oceans all the time.
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牠們可以隨時
穿越國界或飄揚過海。
穿越國界或飄揚過海。
07:53
OK, the other piece of bad news
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好的，還有另外一個壞消息，
07:55
is that a gene drive
might not stay confined
might not stay confined
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就是，基因驅動的表現
不一定只被限制在
不一定只被限制在
07:58
to what we call the target species.
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我們所謂的標靶物種上。
08:00
That's because of gene flow,
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那是因為有基因轉移（流動）
08:02
which is a fancy way of saying
that neighboring species
that neighboring species
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基因轉移就是，
相鄰的物種之間
相鄰的物種之間
08:04
sometimes interbreed.
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偶爾彼此會有雜交的情形。
08:05
If that happens, it's possible
a gene drive could cross over,
a gene drive could cross over,
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如果發生了雜交，基因驅動
就很有可能會穿過物種的限制，
就很有可能會穿過物種的限制，
08:09
like Asian carp could infect
some other kind of carp.
some other kind of carp.
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比如亞洲鯉魚可能會
影響其它種類的鯉魚。
影響其它種類的鯉魚。
08:11
That's not so bad if your drive
just promotes a trait, like eye color.
just promotes a trait, like eye color.
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如果你的驅動只是改變眼睛的顏色，
可能還不會那麼糟糕。
可能還不會那麼糟糕。
08:15
In fact, there's a decent
chance that we'll see
chance that we'll see
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事實上，不久的未來很有可能
08:17
a wave of very weird fruit flies
in the near future.
in the near future.
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有非常大量奇怪的
果蠅被培養出來。
果蠅被培養出來。
08:21
But it could be a disaster
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但如果你的驅動裝置是惡意地
08:22
if your drive is deigned
to eliminate the species entirely.
to eliminate the species entirely.
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被用來消滅一個物種的話，
這也有可能會導致災難。
這也有可能會導致災難。
08:26
The last worrisome thing
is that the technology to do this,
is that the technology to do this,
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最後一件令人擔心的事，就是，
08:29
to genetically engineer an organism
and include a gene drive,
and include a gene drive,
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對有機體做基因工程包括基因驅動，
這一技術，
這一技術，
08:33
is something that basically any lab
in the world can do.
in the world can do.
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基本上世界上
任何一個實驗室都能做。
任何一個實驗室都能做。
08:36
An undergraduate can do it.
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一個大學本科生就可以做。
08:39
A talented high schooler
with some equipment can do it.
with some equipment can do it.
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一個天資聰穎的高中生，
給他一些儀器，他也會做。
給他一些儀器，他也會做。
08:44
Now, I'm guessing
that this sounds terrifying.
that this sounds terrifying.
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我猜，你們一定覺得，
這聽起相當恐怖。
這聽起相當恐怖。
08:47
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
08:49
Interestingly though,
nearly every scientist I talk to
nearly every scientist I talk to
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有趣的是，因乎每一個
和我討論的科學家都認為，
和我討論的科學家都認為，
08:52
seemed to think that gene drives were not
actually that frightening or dangerous.
actually that frightening or dangerous.
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基因驅動技術沒有想像中
那麼的恐怖或危險，
那麼的恐怖或危險，
08:56
Partly because they believe
that scientists will be
that scientists will be
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有部分原因是，
他們相信科學家們
他們相信科學家們
08:59
very cautious and responsible
about using them.
about using them.
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會非常小心並
負責任地使用這些工具。
負責任地使用這些工具。
09:01
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
09:02
So far, that's been true.
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目前為止，也確實是如此。
09:04
But gene drives also have
some actual limitations.
some actual limitations.
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不過基因驅動技術
也有一些實質上的限制。
也有一些實質上的限制。
09:07
So for one thing, they work
only in sexually reproducing species.
only in sexually reproducing species.
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首先，它只能應用於
有性生殖的物種。
有性生殖的物種。
09:10
So thank goodness, they can't be used
to engineer viruses or bacteria.
to engineer viruses or bacteria.
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所以感謝上帝，它們不能
用在細菌和病毒的培育上。
用在細菌和病毒的培育上。
09:14
Also, the trait spreads
only with each successive generation.
only with each successive generation.
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其次，遺傳特徵只有在
成功的後代繁衍下才能傳播。
成功的後代繁衍下才能傳播。
09:17
So changing or eliminating a population
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所以只有在繁殖周期很短的物種中
09:19
is practical only if that species
has a fast reproductive cycle,
has a fast reproductive cycle,
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改變或者滅絕該物種才有可能發生。
09:22
like insects or maybe
small vertebrates like mice or fish.
small vertebrates like mice or fish.
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比如昆蟲或者類似於鼠類
或者魚類的小型脊椎動物。
或者魚類的小型脊椎動物。
09:26
In elephants or people,
it would take centuries
it would take centuries
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大象或者人類可能需要幾百年，
09:28
for a trait to spread
widely enough to matter.
widely enough to matter.
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才能把遺傳特徵散播地夠廣。
09:32
Also, even with CRISPR, it's not that easy
to engineer a truly devastating trait.
to engineer a truly devastating trait.
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而且，就算有 CRISPR ，
也無法輕易做出真正毀滅性的遺傳特徵。
也無法輕易做出真正毀滅性的遺傳特徵。
09:38
Say you wanted to make a fruit fly
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比如說，你想製造一種
09:39
that feeds on ordinary fruit
instead of rotting fruit,
instead of rotting fruit,
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以普通水果而不是以
腐爛水果為食的果蠅，
腐爛水果為食的果蠅，
09:42
with the aim of sabotaging
American agriculture.
American agriculture.
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藉此來摧毀美國的農業。
09:45
First, you'd have to figure out
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首先，你得搞清楚，
09:46
which genes control
what the fly wants to eat,
what the fly wants to eat,
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哪些基因控制了
果蠅的食慾，
果蠅的食慾，
09:49
which is already a very long
and complicated project.
and complicated project.
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這已經算是很長
很複雜的專案了。
很複雜的專案了。
09:52
Then you'd have to alter those genes
to change the fly's behavior
to change the fly's behavior
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接下來你要根據你的想法，
透過更換基因
透過更換基因
09:55
to whatever you'd want it to be,
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來改變果蠅的習性，
09:57
which is an even longer
and more complicated project.
and more complicated project.
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這將是更長更複雜的專案。
10:00
And it might not even work,
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甚至會以失敗告終，
10:01
because the genes
that control behavior are complex.
that control behavior are complex.
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因為基因對於行為的
控制是非常複雜的。
控制是非常複雜的。
10:04
So if you're a terrorist
and have to choose
and have to choose
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所以，如果你是一個恐怖分子，
10:06
between starting a grueling
basic research program
basic research program
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你會選擇一個需要
耗時多年、細心做實驗
耗時多年、細心做實驗
10:08
that will require years of meticulous
lab work and still might not pan out,
lab work and still might not pan out,
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甚至可能會失敗的研究計畫，
10:12
or just blowing stuff up?
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還是直接放炸彈？
10:13
You'll probably choose the later.
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你大概會選擇後者。
10:15
This is especially true
because at least in theory,
because at least in theory,
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這真的是實話，因為至少在理論上，
10:17
it should be pretty easy
to build what's called a reversal drive.
to build what's called a reversal drive.
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要製造一個叫做「逆轉驅動」
的東西也相當容易。
的東西也相當容易。
10:21
That's one that basically overwrites
the change made by the first gene drive.
the change made by the first gene drive.
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它基本上就可以覆蓋掉
第一個基因驅動所造成的改變。
第一個基因驅動所造成的改變。
10:24
So if you don't like
the effects of a change,
the effects of a change,
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所以，如果你不喜歡改變後的結果，
10:27
you can just release a second drive
that will cancel it out,
that will cancel it out,
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你只要再釋放第二個驅動
就可以把它消滅掉了，
就可以把它消滅掉了，
10:29
at least in theory.
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至少理論上是這樣的。
10:33
OK, so where does this leave us?
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好的，這告訴了我們甚麼？
10:36
We now have the ability
to change entire species at will.
to change entire species at will.
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我們現在已經有能力，
能隨意改變整個物種。
能隨意改變整個物種。
10:41
Should we?
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我們應該這樣做嗎？
10:42
Are we gods now?
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我們現在是上帝了嗎？
10:45
I'm not sure I'd say that.
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我不太確定
我能否這樣說。
我能否這樣說。
10:48
But I would say this:
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但我想說的是：
10:50
first, some very smart people
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首先，有很多頂尖聰明的人，
10:52
are even now debating
how to regulate gene drives.
how to regulate gene drives.
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現在已經開始討論如何監管
基因驅動技術。
基因驅動技術。
10:55
At the same time,
some other very smart people
some other very smart people
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同時，另一批頂尖聰明的人，
10:58
are working hard to create safeguards,
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也已經開始努力地制定
安全保護措施，
安全保護措施，
11:00
like gene drives that self-regulate
or peter out after a few generations.
or peter out after a few generations.
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比如，讓基因自我規範
或幾代之後逐漸消失。
或幾代之後逐漸消失。
11:04
That's great.
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太棒了。
11:06
But this technology still requires
a conversation.
a conversation.
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但這項技術仍需要展開一次對話。
11:10
And given the nature of gene drives,
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而且鑒於基因驅動技術的本質，
11:11
that conversation has to be global.
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對話必須是全球性的。
11:14
What if Kenya wants to use a drive
but Tanzania doesn't?
but Tanzania doesn't?
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要是肯亞想使用一個驅動，
但坦薩尼亞不要呢？
但坦薩尼亞不要呢？
11:17
Who decides whether to release
a gene drive that can fly?
a gene drive that can fly?
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誰可以決定是否要釋放一個
會飛的基因驅動呢？
會飛的基因驅動呢？
11:22
I don't have the answer to that question.
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我目前仍沒有答案。
11:25
All we can do going forward, I think,
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接下來我們能做的，
我認為，
我認為，
11:27
is talk honestly
about the risks and benefits
about the risks and benefits
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就是針對這項技術的利弊，
大家坦誠對話，
大家坦誠對話，
11:30
and take responsibility for our choices.
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並對我們的選擇負責。
11:33
By that I mean, not just the choice
to use a gene drive,
to use a gene drive,
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但我的意思是，不僅要對
選擇使用基因驅動負責，
選擇使用基因驅動負責，
11:37
but also the choice not to use one.
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也要對不使用它的後果負責。
11:41
Humans have a tendency to assume
that the safest option
that the safest option
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人類傾向於認為，
11:44
is to preserve the status quo.
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維持現狀就是最安全的選項。
11:46
But that's not always the case.
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但事實往往不一定如此。
11:49
Gene drives have risks,
and those need to be discussed,
and those need to be discussed,
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基因驅動確實有風險，
也需要被討論，
也需要被討論，
11:53
but malaria exists now
and kills 1,000 people a day.
and kills 1,000 people a day.
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但現存的瘧疾，
每天在持續奪走 1000 條人命。
每天在持續奪走 1000 條人命。
11:56
To combat it, we spray pesticides
that do grave damage to other species,
that do grave damage to other species,
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為了對抗它，我們噴灑的農藥
也會對其它物種造成嚴重的傷害，
也會對其它物種造成嚴重的傷害，
12:00
including amphibians and birds.
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包括兩棲類及鳥類。
12:03
So when you hear about gene drives
in the coming months,
in the coming months,
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所以，當各位幾個月後
聽到基因驅動，
聽到基因驅動，
12:06
and trust me, you will
be hearing about them,
be hearing about them,
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相信我，你將會聽到這些事，
12:08
remember that.
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請記住，
12:10
It can be frightening to act,
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採取行動或許令人恐懼，
12:12
but sometimes, not acting is worse.
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但有時候，無動於衷會更糟糕。
12:16
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jennifer Kahn - Science journalistIn articles that span the gene-editing abilities of CRISPR, the roots of psychopathic behavior in children, and much more, Jennifer Kahn weaves gripping stories from unlikely sources.
Why you should listen
Jennifer Kahn likes to seek out complex stories, with the goal of illuminating their nuances. She teaches in the magazine program at the UC Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism, and is a contributing writer for the New York Times Magazine; she has written features and cover stories for The New Yorker, National Geographic, Outside, Wired and many more.
Her work has appeared in the Best American Science Writing anthology series four times, most recently for the New Yorker story “A Cloud of Smoke,” a story on the complicated death of a policeman after 9/11.
Jennifer Kahn | Speaker | TED.com