TEDxLondonBusinessSchool
Nirmalya Kumar: India's invisible innovation
Nirmalya Kumar: 印度的无形创新
Filmed:
Readability: 4.9
993,700 views
印度能不能变成一个全球的创新中心呢？Nirmalya Kumar认为印度已经是了。他用细节讲述了四种目前在印度的“隐形创新”并解释了为啥那些曾经只外包制造业工作给印度的公司现在开始把上层的管理工作向海外运转。（录制于TED伦敦商业学校）
Nirmalya Kumar - Professor
Nirmalya Kumar is a professor of Marketing at the London Business School and a passionate voice for new entrepreneurs in India. Full bio
Nirmalya Kumar is a professor of Marketing at the London Business School and a passionate voice for new entrepreneurs in India. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Over the last two decades, India has become
0
39
2974
在过去的二十年里，印度已经成为
00:18
a global hub for software development
1
3013
3039
全球软件开发以及
00:21
and offshoring of back office services, as we call it,
2
6052
4027
离岸后台服务的中心
00:25
and what we were interested in finding out was that
3
10079
5020
我们希望了解的是
00:30
because of this huge industry that has started
4
15099
3940
这个庞大的产业
00:34
over the last two decades in India,
5
19039
2011
自二十年前在印度崛起
00:36
offshoring software development and back office services,
6
21050
2991
由于离岸软件开发和后台服务
00:39
there's been a flight of white collar jobs
7
24041
2023
白领工作岗位也因此
00:41
from the developed world to India.
8
26064
3951
从发达国家转移到印度
00:45
When this is combined with the loss of manufacturing jobs
9
30015
3056
加上制造业岗位
00:48
to China, it has, you know, led to considerable angst
10
33071
3930
外包到中国，正如你所知道的，造成了相当程度的
00:52
amongst the Western populations.
11
37001
3088
来自西方社会的焦虑
00:55
In fact, if you look at polls, they show a declining
12
40089
2962
事实上，调查数据显示
00:58
trend for support for free trade in the West.
13
43051
5036
在西方，对自由贸易的支持者人数正在下降
01:03
Now, the Western elites, however, have said
14
48087
2999
但是，如今，西方的精英指出
01:06
this fear is misplaced.
15
51086
2000
这是一种错位的恐惧
01:08
For example, if you have read — I suspect many of you
16
53086
2922
我举个例子，如果你读过，我想很多观众都
01:11
have done so — read the book by Thomas Friedman
17
56008
3032
看过，Thomas Friedman的书
01:14
called "The World Is Flat," he said, basically, in his book
18
59040
3034
书名是《地球是平的》，其中谈到
01:17
that, you know, this fear for free trade is wrong
19
62074
4019
对于自由贸易的恐惧是错误的
01:21
because it assumes, it's based on a mistaken assumption
20
66093
2974
因为这个观点来自一个错误的假设
01:24
that everything that can be invented has been invented.
21
69067
3984
那就是一切的发明创造皆已完成
01:28
In fact, he says, it's innovation that will keep the West
22
73051
2986
而实际上，作者说，西方社会领先发展中国家的优势
01:31
ahead of the developing world,
23
76037
1973
来自于创新
01:33
with the more sophisticated, innovative tasks being done
24
78010
3042
当更复杂，更新颖的任务
01:36
in the developed world, and the less sophisticated,
25
81052
2973
在发达国家完成以后，那些较简单
01:39
shall we say, drudge work being done
26
84025
1058
或者说辛苦的工作
01:40
in the developing world.
27
85083
3016
就被转移到发展中国家
01:43
Now, what we were trying to understand was,
28
88099
3932
那我们想搞清楚的
01:47
is this true?
29
92031
2976
就是，这个的观点正确吗？
01:50
Could India become a source, or a global hub,
30
95007
3079
印度能否成为创新的源泉或全球中心
01:53
of innovation, just like it's become a global hub
31
98086
3917
就像成为
01:57
for back office services and software development?
32
102003
3087
后台服务和软件开发的中心一样？
02:00
And for the last four years, my coauthor Phanish Puranam
33
105090
3982
过去的四年里，我和合著者 Phanish Puranam
02:04
and I spent investigating this topic.
34
109072
3930
就在研究这个课题
02:08
Initially, or, you know, as people would say, you know,
35
113002
4000
开始是，正如你们所知到的，人们会说
02:12
in fact the more aggressive people who are supporting
36
117002
2041
特别是支持西方创新理论模型的拥护者
02:14
the Western innovative model, say,
37
119043
2026
他们说
02:16
"Where are the Indian Googles, iPods and Viagras,
38
121069
2958
”印度的Googles, iPods,和Viagras在哪里
02:19
if the Indians are so bloody smart?" (Laughter)
39
124027
4026
如果印度人真有那么聪明的话？“
02:23
So initially, when we started our research, we went
40
128053
2035
所以起初，在最开始的研究阶段
02:25
and met several executives, and we asked them,
41
130088
2010
我们去拜访数位高管，向他们提问
02:27
"What do you think? Will India go from being a favored
42
132098
2929
”您觉得，印度是否可能从
02:30
destination for software services and back office services
43
135027
3000
软件和后台服务的目的地转型
02:33
to a destination for innovation?"
44
138027
3010
成为创新的目的地呢？“
02:36
They laughed. They dismissed us.
45
141037
1986
他们笑了，并把我们请出门
02:38
They said, "You know what? Indians don't do innovation."
46
143023
3007
有的会说”你知道吗？印度人不会创新“
02:41
The more polite ones said, "Well, you know, Indians
47
146030
2030
比较有礼貌的版本是”印度人
02:43
make good software programmers and accountants,
48
148060
3007
有当出色的程序远和会计师的天赋，
02:46
but they can't do the creative stuff."
49
151067
2950
但他们没有创造力“
02:49
Sometimes, it took a more, took a veneer of sophistication,
50
154017
4066
有时候，表达方式更委婉一些
02:53
and people said, "You know, it's nothing to do with Indians.
51
158083
2950
人们会说”不是印度人的问题
02:56
It's really the rule-based, regimented education system
52
161033
3061
是僵化的教育体系的错
02:59
in India that is responsible for killing all creativity."
53
164094
4938
是条条框框抹杀了创意“
03:04
They said, instead, if you want to see real creativity,
54
169032
2054
所以他们建议，如果要了解创造力
03:06
go to Silicon Valley, and look at companies
55
171086
1999
要去硅谷，去参观
03:08
like Google, Microsoft, Intel.
56
173085
2966
Google (谷歌), Microsoft (微软)和Intel(英特尔)这样的公司
03:11
So we started examining the R&D and innovation labs
57
176051
2954
所以我们就开始研究
03:14
of Silicon Valley.
58
179005
2052
硅谷的研发中心和创新实验室
03:16
Well, interestingly, what you find there is,
59
181057
2014
有意思的是，在那里
03:18
usually you are introduced to the head of the innovation lab
60
183071
2993
我们发现通常创新实验室
03:21
or the R&D center as they may call it,
61
186064
1997
或者研发中心的一把手
03:23
and more often than not, it's an Indian. (Laughter)
62
188061
3963
往往就是一个印度人
03:27
So I immediately said, "Well, but you could not have been
63
192024
3003
当然我们的第一反应是”您一定不是
03:30
educated in India, right?
64
195027
1035
在印度接受教育的吧？
03:31
You must have gotten your education here."
65
196062
1956
您一定是在这里上的学吧？”
03:33
It turned out, in every single case,
66
198018
3986
结果，每一次
03:37
they came out of the Indian educational system.
67
202004
4022
他们其实都是印度教育的产物
03:41
So we realized that maybe we had the wrong question,
68
206026
2049
于是我们意识到我们没有问对问题
03:43
and the right question is, really, can Indians
69
208075
2987
正确的问题其实是， 印度的印度人
03:46
based out of India do innovative work?
70
211062
3980
可以创新吗？
03:50
So off we went to India. We made, I think,
71
215042
2028
于是我们飞往印度
03:52
about a dozen trips to Bangalore, Mumbai, Gurgaon,
72
217070
3022
我们多次到班加罗尔(Bangalore), 孟买 (Mumbai), 古尔加翁(Gurgaon)
03:55
Delhi, Hyderabad, you name it, to examine
73
220092
2919
德里(Delhi), 海得拉巴(Hyderabad)等地， 探寻
03:58
what is the level of corporate innovation in these cities.
74
223011
5025
这些城市的商业创新程度
04:03
And what we found was, as we progressed in our research,
75
228036
2058
我们的发现是，随着研究的深入
04:05
was, that we were asking really the wrong question.
76
230094
2996
看来提出的问题本身的确是不对的
04:08
When you ask, "Where are the Indian Googles,
77
233090
1975
当有人问“印度的谷歌
04:10
iPods and Viagras?" you are taking a particular perspective
78
235065
4034
iPods和伟哥在哪里？“时，提问者的立场
04:14
on innovation, which is innovation for end users,
79
239099
4916
是站在终端用户角度而言的创新
04:19
visible innovation.
80
244015
1063
是看得见的创新
04:20
Instead, innovation, if you remember, some of you
81
245078
3969
而其实，如果你还记得，
04:24
may have read the famous economist Schumpeter,
82
249047
2001
也许你们读过著名的经济学家熊彼得(Schumpeter)的著作
04:26
he said, "Innovation is novelty
83
251048
2007
他说“创新是
04:28
in how value is created and distributed."
84
253055
3976
用新的方式创造和分配价值”
04:32
It could be new products and services,
85
257031
2013
它既可以是新的产品和服务
04:34
but it could also be new ways of producing products.
86
259044
2033
也可以是不一样的制造产品的方法
04:36
It could also be novel ways of organizing firms and industries.
87
261077
3014
还可以是崭新的企业和行业的组织形式
04:39
Once you take this, there's no reason to restrict innovation,
88
264091
3986
按照这种理论，创新就不仅仅局限于
04:43
the beneficiaries of innovation, just to end users.
89
268077
4000
受益于创新的终端用户
04:47
When you take this broader conceptualization of innovation,
90
272077
2961
当你从广义角度定义创新时
04:50
what we found was, India is well represented
91
275038
3034
你就会发现，印度其实处处
04:53
in innovation, but the innovation that is being done in India
92
278072
3934
有创新，只是印度的创新形式
04:57
is of a form we did not anticipate, and what we did was
93
282006
3020
并不是人们所预期的，我们把它称之为
05:00
we called it "invisible innovation."
94
285026
2065
隐形的创新
05:02
And specifically, there are four types of invisible innovation
95
287091
2987
具体地说，印度式创新又可分为
05:05
that are coming out of India.
96
290078
2020
四个类别
05:07
The first type of invisible innovation out of India
97
292098
2970
其一
05:10
is what we call innovation for business customers,
98
295068
2989
是对商业顾客的创新
05:13
which is led by the multinational corporations,
99
298057
2985
这是由跨国企业引领的
05:16
which have -- in the last two decades, there have been
100
301042
2993
在过去二十年里
05:19
750 R&D centers set up in India by multinational companies
101
304035
6029
由跨国公司在印度建立的研发中心达750个
05:25
employing more than 400,000 professionals.
102
310064
4022
雇佣了超过40万名专业人士
05:29
Now, when you consider the fact that, historically,
103
314086
4926
当我们考虑到
05:34
the R&D center of a multinational company
104
319012
3017
跨国公司的研发中心历来
05:37
was always in the headquarters, or in the country of origin
105
322029
4069
都设在公司总部，或者初始国
05:41
of that multinational company, to have 750 R&D centers
106
326098
3990
所以位于印度的750所
05:45
of multinational corporations in India
107
330088
2937
跨国公司的研发中心
05:48
is truly a remarkable figure.
108
333025
2057
这个数字是惊人的
05:50
When we went and talked to the people in those innovation
109
335082
2923
当我们去到这些研发中心并对里面的工作人员进行访谈
05:53
centers and asked them what are they working on,
110
338005
2061
询问他们在做什么时
05:55
they said, "We are working on global products."
111
340066
2010
他们回答“我们做的是全球性的产品”
05:57
They were not working on localizing global products
112
342076
2963
他们并不是在本地化全球性产品
06:00
for India, which is the usual role of a local R&D.
113
345039
3972
来适应印度市场，这通常就是地方性研发中心的角色
06:04
They were working on truly global products,
114
349011
2050
他们做的是真正的全球性产品
06:06
and companies like Microsoft, Google, AstraZeneca,
115
351061
3976
而诸如微软，谷歌，阿斯利康制药厂(AstraZeneca)
06:10
General Electric, Philips, have already answered
116
355037
2987
通用电器，飞利浦这样的企业
06:13
in the affirmative the question that from their Bangalore
117
358024
3048
已经肯定的回应他们在班加罗尔
06:16
and Hyderabad R&D centers they are able to produce
118
361072
3995
和海德拉巴的研发中心足以胜任
06:20
products and services for the world.
119
365067
3002
为全球市场开发产品和提供服务
06:23
But of course, as an end user, you don't see that,
120
368069
2967
当让，作为终端用户，这是你看不到的
06:26
because you only see the name of the company,
121
371036
1051
因为你看到的仅仅是公司的名字
06:27
not where it was developed.
122
372087
3977
而不是产品的研发地
06:31
The other thing we were told then was, "Yes, but, you know,
123
376064
2984
也有人对我们说“即便如此，这些来自印度
06:34
the kind of work that is coming out of the Indian R&D center
124
379048
2024
研发中心的产品
06:36
cannot be compared to the kind of work that is coming out
125
381072
2003
还是比不上那些
06:38
of the U.S. R&D centers."
126
383075
2935
来自美国研发中心的产品。”
06:41
So my coauthor Phanish Puranam, who happens to be
127
386010
1061
有鉴于此，我的合著人Phanish Puranam，他刚好也是
06:42
one of the smartest people I know, said
128
387071
2937
我所认识的最聪明的人，他说
06:45
he's going to do a study.
129
390008
1045
他要做一个研究
06:46
What he did was he looked at those companies
130
391053
2966
对象是在美国和印度
06:49
that had an R&D center in USA and in India,
131
394019
3071
同时拥有研发中心的公司
06:52
and then he looked at a patent that was filed
132
397090
2957
看看那些在美国提交的专利申请
06:55
out of the U.S. and a similar patent filed out of the same
133
400047
2971
和同一公司在印度分支机构提出的
06:58
company's subsidiary in India,
134
403018
2050
类似专利申请
07:00
so he's now comparing the patents of R&D centers
135
405068
3008
这样来比较同一公司位于美国
07:03
in the U.S. with R&D centers in India of the same company
136
408076
4001
和印度提交的专利申请
07:07
to find out what is the quality of the patents filed
137
412077
2930
希望评估印度提交的专利申请的质量
07:10
out of the Indian centers and how do they compare
138
415007
1087
以及跟美国提交的那些
07:11
with the quality of the patents filed out of the U.S. centers?
139
416094
2979
申请的含金量的差异
07:14
Interestingly, what he finds is
140
419073
2021
有趣的是，他发现
07:16
— and by the way, the way we look at the quality of a patent
141
421094
2971
顺便一提的是，我们比较专利质量的方法是
07:19
is what we call forward citations: How many times
142
424065
2990
引用前人(forward citations): 就是看后来的专利
07:22
does a future patent reference the older patent? —
143
427055
4017
对之前的专利的引用次数
07:26
he finds something very interesting.
144
431072
2951
他的发现非常有意思
07:29
What we find is that the data says
145
434023
2068
我们的数据表明
07:31
that the number of forward citations of a patent filed
146
436091
3919
在同一家公司，
07:35
out of a U.S. R&D subsidiary is identical to the number
147
440010
3041
来自美国研发中心的专利申请的被引用次数
07:38
of forward citations of a patent filed by an Indian subsidiary
148
443051
3972
和印度研发中心的
07:42
of the same company within that company.
149
447023
2021
是一模一样的
07:44
So within the company, there's no difference in the forward
150
449044
2991
换而言之，在一家公司
07:47
citation rates of their Indian subsidiaries versus
151
452035
2051
印度和美国分公司的专利引用率
07:49
their U.S. subsidiaries.
152
454086
1010
是一样的
07:50
So that's the first kind of invisible innovation coming out of India.
153
455096
3982
这是第一种印度式创新
07:54
The second kind of invisible innovation coming out of India
154
459078
2955
第二种来自印度的创新
07:57
is what we call outsourcing innovation to Indian companies,
155
462033
3970
我们称之为外包创新
08:01
where many companies today are contracting
156
466003
3002
如今很多公司都把
08:04
Indian companies to do a major part of their product
157
469005
3092
产品开发的主要部分外包给印度公司
08:07
development work for their global products
158
472097
4941
服务于他们的全球性产品
08:12
which are going to be sold to the entire world.
159
477038
2031
再卖给全世界
08:14
For example, in the pharma industry, a lot of the molecules
160
479069
2022
比方说，制药行业在开发很多分子
08:16
are being developed, but you see a major part of that work
161
481091
2960
其中的很大一部分
08:19
is being sent to India.
162
484051
2955
是在印度完成的
08:22
For example, XCL Technologies,
163
487006
3001
比如XCL Technologies公司
08:25
they developed two of the mission critical systems
164
490007
2092
他们为波音公司新的787客机开发
08:27
for the new Boeing 787 Dreamliner,
165
492099
3920
其中两个关键的航行系统
08:31
one to avoid collisions in the sky,
166
496019
2072
一个防止飞行相撞
08:33
and another to allow landing in zero visibility.
167
498091
3924
另一个用于实现零能见度着陆
08:37
But of course, when you climb onto the Boeing 787,
168
502015
2063
当然，当你登上波音787客机时
08:39
you are not going to know that this is invisible innovation
169
504078
2938
是不可能觉察到这些隐形的
08:42
out of India.
170
507016
1027
来自印度的创新的
08:43
The third kind of invisible innovation coming out of India
171
508043
3001
第三种印度式创新
08:46
is what we call process innovations, because of an injection
172
511044
2999
是基于印度公司的才智
08:49
of intelligence by Indian firms.
173
514043
2973
而产生的过程创新
08:52
Process innovation is different from product innovation.
174
517016
4026
过程创新和产品创新是不一样的
08:56
It's about how do you create a new product or develop
175
521042
3021
它是关于新产品开发，创造或生产的
08:59
a new product or manufacture a new product,
176
524063
2000
流程的创新
09:01
but not a new product itself?
177
526063
2004
而不是产品本身
09:03
Only in India do millions of young people dream
178
528067
5010
只有在印度才有上百万的年轻人
09:08
of working in a call center.
179
533077
4019
向往在呼叫中心工作
09:12
What happens — You know, it's a dead end job in the West,
180
537096
3002
在西方，这样的工作是没有出头之日的
09:15
what high school dropouts do.
181
540098
2933
是中学辍学者才做的事
09:18
What happens when you put hundreds of thousands
182
543031
3012
当你把成千上万名
09:21
of smart, young, ambitious kids
183
546043
3016
聪明年轻又雄心勃勃的年轻人
09:24
on a call center job?
184
549059
2030
放在一个呼叫中心里，会出现什么情况呢？
09:26
Very quickly, they get bored, and they start innovating,
185
551089
4990
不用多久，他们就感到无聊开始想新的点子
09:31
and they start telling the boss how to do this job better, and
186
556079
3930
然后就开始跟老板说如何能更好地完成工作
09:35
out of this process innovation comes product innovations,
187
560009
3021
而这个流程地创新则带来了产品地创新
09:38
which are then marketed around the world.
188
563030
1973
再被推广到世界其他地方
09:40
For example, 24/7 Customer,
189
565003
2039
其中的例子如24/7 Customer (全天候客服公司）
09:42
traditional call center company, used to be a traditional
190
567042
2029
传统的呼叫中心公司，沿用的是固有
09:44
call center company. Today they're developing
191
569071
1984
的形式。而今天他们开发的
09:46
analytical tools to do predictive modeling so that before
192
571055
3945
分析工具可以进行模型预测
09:50
you pick up the phone, you can guess
193
575000
3005
在拿起话筒前就能猜测
09:53
or predict what this phone call is about.
194
578005
6073
或预计这通来电的内容
09:59
It's because of an injection of intelligence into a process
195
584078
2950
这都是由于对西方长期认为没有前景的行业
10:02
which was considered dead for a long time in the West.
196
587028
2982
的流程加入了有智慧的改进
10:05
And the last kind of innovation, invisible innovation
197
590010
3031
最后一种印度式的隐形创新
10:08
coming out of India is what we call management innovation.
198
593041
2961
我们称之为管理创新
10:11
It's not a new product or a new process
199
596002
1073
它不是产品和流程的创新
10:12
but a new way to organize work,
200
597075
2935
而是工作安排的创新
10:15
and the most significant management innovation to come
201
600010
2049
而来自印度的最著名的管理创新
10:17
out of India, invented by the Indian offshoring industry
202
602059
3956
是由外包行业提供的
10:21
is what we call the global delivery model.
203
606015
2065
全球服务模式
10:23
What the global delivery model allows is, it allows you
204
608080
2929
在这个模式下，可以实现
10:26
to take previously geographically core-located tasks,
205
611009
3050
把从前受地理位置局限的任务
10:29
break them up into parts, send them around the world
206
614059
3001
细化再分发给世界各地的
10:32
where the expertise and the cost structure exists,
207
617060
2001
专业人士手上或者成本结构适宜的地区
10:34
and then specify the means for reintegrating them.
208
619061
2983
再列明重新整合以上服务的方式
10:37
Without that, you could not have any of the other
209
622044
2013
缺了这个模式，今天的其他任何一个隐形创新都
10:39
invisible innovations today.
210
624057
2028
无法实现
10:41
So, what I'm trying to say is, what we are finding
211
626085
2964
所以我想说的是，我们的研究发现
10:44
in our research is, that if products for end users
212
629049
4963
如果说终端用户手中的产品是
10:49
is the visible tip of the innovation iceberg,
213
634012
3029
创新之中看得见的冰山一角的话
10:52
India is well represented in the invisible, large,
214
637041
3992
那印度的创新则是隐没在水下的
10:56
submerged portion of the innovation iceberg.
215
641033
5024
更为巨大的部分
11:01
Now, this has, of course, some implications,
216
646057
4996
当然这个也带来了启示
11:06
and so we developed three implications of this research.
217
651053
4024
我们归结为三点
11:10
The first is what we called sinking skill ladder,
218
655077
3924
第一, 下降的技能阶梯
11:14
and now I'm going to go back to where I started my
219
659001
2072
让我回到对话的开头
11:16
conversation with you, which was about the flight of jobs.
220
661073
3022
谈到岗位流失的时候
11:19
Now, of course, when we first, as a multinational company,
221
664095
3913
当然，一开始，跨国公司
11:23
decide to outsource jobs to India in the R&D,
222
668008
2082
决定要外包服务到印度的研发中心时
11:25
what we are going to do is we are going to outsource the
223
670090
3944
我们是把业务中最低端的部分
11:29
bottom rung of the ladder to India, the least sophisticated jobs,
224
674034
3008
外包出去，那些都是最简单的工作
11:32
just like Tom Friedman would predict.
225
677042
3021
跟Tom Friedman预测的是一样的
11:35
Now, what happens is, when you outsource the bottom rung
226
680063
2972
当你把最底下的工作
11:38
of the ladder to India for innovation and for R&D work,
227
683035
4982
外包到印度进行创新和研发后
11:43
at some stage in the very near future you are going to have
228
688017
3023
不久，未来的某个时刻将要
11:46
to confront a problem,
229
691040
2014
面对一个问题
11:48
which is where does the next step
230
693054
1989
往上一层的员工
11:50
of the ladder people come from within your company?
231
695043
3026
在公司内部从何而来呢？
11:53
So you have two choices then:
232
698069
2990
有两个选择
11:56
Either you bring the people from India into
233
701059
2018
要么把印度的人才
11:58
the developed world to take positions in the next step
234
703077
2991
提拔到发达国家
12:01
of the ladder — immigration —
235
706068
2974
通过移民
12:04
or you say, there's so many people in the bottom step
236
709042
2044
不然你也可以说既然在印度有这么多
12:06
of the ladder waiting to take the next position in India,
237
711086
2964
从事底层职位的人员等待升迁
12:09
why don't we move the next step to India?
238
714050
4023
何不干脆把提升的职位也转移到印度去？
12:13
What we are trying to say is
239
718073
1995
我们想说的是
12:15
that once you outsource the bottom end of the ladder, you --
240
720068
5023
一旦职业阶梯底层的工作外包出去
12:20
it's a self-perpetuating act, because of the sinking skill ladder,
241
725091
2970
由于阶梯下移，自然而然
12:23
and the sinking skill ladder is simply the point that
242
728061
2973
跟其他简单的逻辑一样
12:26
you can't be an investment banker
243
731034
2015
要成为投资银行家
12:28
without having been an analyst once.
244
733049
1999
就要先当一个分析员
12:30
You can't be a professor without having been a student.
245
735048
2027
要当教授就要先做一回学生
12:32
You can't be a consultant without having been a research associate.
246
737075
2986
要当咨询师就必须有当研究员的经历
12:35
So, if you outsource the least sophisticated jobs,
247
740061
2959
所以简单的工作被外包后
12:38
at some stage, the next step of the ladder has to follow.
248
743020
4027
某个时刻，它上面的职位就要跟随这个趋势
12:42
The second thing we bring up is what we call
249
747047
1985
此外，我们想提一下
12:44
the browning of the TMT, the top management teams.
250
749032
3036
TMT (高级管理团队)的亚洲化
12:47
If the R&D talent is going to be based out of India
251
752068
2964
假设未来研发中心将设在印度
12:50
and China, and the largest growth markets
252
755032
2024
和中国，而增长最快的市场
12:52
are going to be based out of India and China,
253
757056
2024
也将是这两个国家的话
12:54
you have to confront the problem that
254
759080
1973
你要面临的问题是
12:56
your top management of the future
255
761053
1960
未来你的高级管理人员
12:58
is going to have to come out of India and China,
256
763015
3001
必然来自印度和中国
13:01
because that's where the product leadership is,
257
766016
1083
因为那是产品领导力
13:02
that's where the important market leadership is.
258
767099
2916
市场领导力的来源
13:05
Right? And the last thing we point out in this slide,
259
770015
2078
对吧？最后我想说的是
13:07
which is, you know, that to this story, there's one caveat.
260
772093
3943
这里还有一个警示
13:11
India has the youngest growing population in the world.
261
776036
4006
印度拥有全球最年轻的人口
13:15
This demographic dividend is incredible, but paradoxically,
262
780042
4030
这个人口红利是巨大的 但相对的
13:19
there's also the mirage of mighty labor pools.
263
784072
2939
也造成强劲的劳动力市场这个幻境
13:22
Indian institutes and educational system,
264
787011
2993
印度的教育机构和教育体系
13:25
with a few exceptions, are incapable of producing students
265
790004
2093
大部分无法培养
13:27
in the quantity and quality needed
266
792097
2950
足够数量的合格人才
13:30
to keep this innovation engine going,
267
795047
2954
来满足持续创新的需求
13:33
so companies are finding innovative ways to overcome this,
268
798001
3021
所以企业也在寻找解决这个问题的新路子
13:36
but in the end it does not absolve the government
269
801022
2060
但终究，教育结构的创新是政府
13:38
of the responsibility for creating this educational structure.
270
803082
4947
不可推卸的责任
13:43
So finally, I want to conclude
271
808029
3033
最后，我希望通过
13:46
by showing you the profile of one company, IBM.
272
811062
3032
IBM公司的情况来总结
13:49
As many of you know, IBM has always been considered
273
814094
2937
很多人都知道，IBM一直是
13:52
for the last hundred years to be one of the most
274
817031
1998
在过去一个世纪以来
13:54
innovative companies.
275
819029
1027
最具创新意识的公司之一
13:55
In fact, if you look at the number of patents filed over history,
276
820056
2975
实际上，如果翻看专利申请数量的历史
13:58
I think they are in the top or the top two or three companies
277
823031
2040
我想他们是位居榜首或前几名的
14:00
in the world of all patents filed in the USA as a private company.
278
825071
3970
专利申请公司，在美国的私人企业当中
14:04
Here is the profile of employees of
279
829041
2050
这个是该公司
14:06
IBM over the last decade.
280
831091
3993
过去十年的员工构成表
14:10
In 2003, they had 300,000 employees,
281
835084
2975
2003年，他们有30万名员工
14:13
or 330,000 employees, out of which, 135,000
282
838059
4009
或者说33万员工里面13.5万
14:17
were in America, 9,000 were in India.
283
842068
3959
在美国9千在印度
14:21
In 2009, they had 400,000 employees, by which time
284
846027
5003
到2009年 他们有40万名员工 此时
14:26
the U.S. employees had moved to 105,000,
285
851030
2057
美国的员工数字变为10.5万
14:28
whereas the Indian employees had gone to 100,000.
286
853087
3927
而印度的数字则升到10万
14:32
Well, in 2010, they decided they're not going to reveal
287
857014
3002
到2010年他们决定不再公布
14:35
this data anymore, so I had to make some estimates
288
860016
2032
这个统计，所以我自己做了点估算
14:37
based on various sources.
289
862048
1040
在各种数据的基础上
14:38
Here are my best guesses. Okay? I'm not saying
290
863088
2964
这是我能做的最佳估算。这并不是
14:41
this is the exact number, it's my best guess.
291
866052
1046
确切的数字 而是我的最佳估算
14:42
It gives you a sense of the trend.
292
867098
1962
让你能感知发展趋势
14:44
There are 433,000 people now at IBM, out of which
293
869060
4963
现在IBM有43.3万名员工 其中
14:49
98,000 are remaining in the U.S.,
294
874023
2060
9.8万仍在美国
14:51
and 150,000 are in India.
295
876083
3956
而15万在印度
14:55
So you tell me, is IBM an American company,
296
880039
3012
请你告诉我，IBM是一家美国公司
14:58
or an Indian company? (Laughter)
297
883051
4006
还是印度公司(笑声)
15:02
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much. (Applause)
298
887057
4963
女士们先生们 谢谢各位(掌声)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Nirmalya Kumar - ProfessorNirmalya Kumar is a professor of Marketing at the London Business School and a passionate voice for new entrepreneurs in India.
Why you should listen
Nirmalya Kumar has taught at Harvard Business School, IMD-International Institute for Management Development in Switzerland, and the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. He is currently a Professor of Marketing and Co-Director of Aditya Birla India Centre at London Business School. Kumar has served as a consultant to over 50 Fortune 500 Companies, worked on the board of five Indian firms, and has published six books -- including, most recently, India Inside: The emerging innovation challenge to the West. In 2011, Thinkers50 named him number 26 of the “50 most influential management gurus.”
Nirmalya Kumar | Speaker | TED.com