TED2015
Benedetta Berti: The surprising way groups like ISIS stay in power
Benedetta Berti: 伊斯兰国式的组织保持权力的惊人方式
Filmed:
Readability: 4.9
2,198,033 views
伊斯兰国、真主教、哈马斯，这三个大相径庭的组织都因为暴力而出名——但这仅仅是他们日常行为的一部分，政策分析师Benedetti Berti如此说。他们也试图通过参与社会工作来赢得大众：建立学校和医院，提供安全和安保，填补无力政府留下的空白。理解这些组织更广泛的工作可以为结束暴力提供新的策略。
Benedetta Berti - Conflict and security researcher
Benedetta Berti studies how conflicts impact civilians. Full bio
Benedetta Berti studies how conflicts impact civilians. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
For the past decade,
0
849
1471
在过去的十年里，
00:14
I've been studying non-state armed groups:
1
2344
2902
我一直在研究非政府武装集团：
00:17
armed organizations like terrorists,
insurgents or militias.
insurgents or militias.
2
5270
3867
像恐怖分子、造反派或民兵等武装组织。
00:21
I document what these groups do
when they're not shooting.
when they're not shooting.
3
9588
3173
我记录他们在非战斗状态下都做些什么。
00:24
My goal is to better understand
these violent actors
these violent actors
4
12785
3563
我的目标是更好地了解这些暴力分子
00:28
and to study ways to encourage transition
from violent engagement
from violent engagement
5
16372
3690
并研究促进从暴力途径到非暴力对抗的
00:32
to nonviolent confrontation.
6
20086
1877
过渡方式。
00:33
I work in the field, in the policy world
and in the library.
and in the library.
7
21987
3404
我做过实地考察, 研究过政策层面, 在图书馆翻阅过资料.
00:37
Understanding non-state armed groups
is key to solving most ongoing conflict,
is key to solving most ongoing conflict,
8
25749
5111
理解非政府武装组织是解决当今大多数冲突的关键，
00:42
because war has changed.
9
30884
1556
因为战争形态已经跟以前不一样了。
00:44
It used to be a contest between states.
10
32464
2460
它曾经是国家间的竞赛，
00:47
No longer.
11
35568
1151
但现在不是了。
00:48
It is now a conflict between states
and non-state actors.
and non-state actors.
12
36743
3938
现在它是政府与非政府组织间的冲突。
00:53
For example, of the 216 peace agreements
13
41236
3736
例如，在1975年到2011间签署的216项
00:56
signed between 1975 and 2011,
14
44996
3410
和平协议中，
01:00
196 of them were between a state
and a non-state actor.
and a non-state actor.
15
48430
5180
其中196项是政府与非政府组织之间签订的。
01:05
So we need to understand these groups;
we need to either engage them
we need to either engage them
16
53634
3237
因此我们需要了解这些集团；我们需要要么参与他们
01:08
or defeat them in any conflict resolution
process that has to be successful.
process that has to be successful.
17
56895
4889
要么在任何非成功不可的冲突解决过程中打败他们。
01:13
So how do we do that?
18
61808
1414
那么我们怎么做？
01:15
We need to know what makes
these organizations tick.
these organizations tick.
19
63805
3004
我们要知道是什么让这些组织采取武装行动
01:19
We know a lot about
how they fight, why they fight,
how they fight, why they fight,
20
67148
2793
关于他们如何战斗、为何战斗我们了解很多，
01:21
but no one looks at what they're doing
when they're not fighting.
when they're not fighting.
21
69965
3054
但是没人关注当他们不战斗时都在干什么。
01:25
Yet, armed struggle
and unarmed politics are related.
and unarmed politics are related.
22
73043
3592
然而，武装斗争与非武装政治是相关联的。
01:28
It is all part of the same organization.
23
76659
2298
它们都是相同组织的一部分。
01:30
We cannot understand these groups,
let alone defeat them,
let alone defeat them,
24
78981
3157
我们甚至不能理解这些集团，遑论打败他们，
01:34
if we don't have the full picture.
25
82162
1888
如果我们不能了解全貌的话。
01:37
And armed groups today
are complex organizations.
are complex organizations.
26
85140
3058
当今的武装集团是复杂的组织。
01:40
Take the Lebanese Hezbollah,
27
88222
1903
以黎巴嫩真主党为例，
01:42
known for its violent
confrontation against Israel.
confrontation against Israel.
28
90149
2783
它因暴力对抗以色列而出名。
01:44
But since its creation in the early 1980s,
29
92956
2835
但自从上世纪80年代初创建以来，
01:47
Hezbollah has also set up
a political party,
a political party,
30
95815
2585
真主党也建立了政党，
01:50
a social-service network,
and a military apparatus.
and a military apparatus.
31
98424
3317
社会服务网络和军事机构。
01:53
Similarly, the Palestinian Hamas,
32
101765
2626
类似地，因其对抗以色列的自杀式袭击而出名的
01:56
known for its suicide attacks
against Israel,
against Israel,
33
104415
2567
巴勒斯坦哈马斯，
01:59
also runs the Gaza Strip since 2007.
34
107006
3204
自从2007年来也控制加沙走廊。
02:02
So these groups do way more
than just shoot.
than just shoot.
35
110234
2678
因而这些集团所做的不仅仅是战斗。
02:05
They multi-task.
36
113453
1159
他们进行多项任务。
02:07
They set up complex
communication machines --
communication machines --
37
115239
3015
他们建立复杂的宣传系统——
02:10
radio stations, TV channels,
38
118278
2143
包括无线电台、电视频道、
02:12
Internet websites
and social media strategies.
and social media strategies.
39
120445
2953
网站和社交媒体宣传。
02:15
And up here, you have the ISIS magazine,
40
123422
2292
这里还有伊斯兰国杂志，
02:17
printed in English
and published to recruit.
and published to recruit.
41
125738
3125
用英文打印，发表文章来招募新兵。
02:21
Armed groups also invest
in complex fund-raising --
in complex fund-raising --
42
129259
2907
武装组织也投资复杂的基金筹备工作——
02:24
not looting, but setting up
profitable businesses;
profitable businesses;
43
132190
3863
不是通过掠夺的方式，而是通过建立可盈利的公司；
02:28
for example, construction companies.
44
136077
2390
例如建筑公司。
02:30
Now, these activities are keys.
45
138491
1883
现在，这些活动是关键。
02:32
They allow these groups
to increase their strength,
to increase their strength,
46
140398
2420
它们使得这些集团能够增强自己的力量，
02:34
increase their funds,
47
142842
1355
增加基金，
02:36
to better recruit
and to build their brand.
and to build their brand.
48
144221
2872
更好地招募，建立自己的品牌。
02:39
Armed groups also do something else:
49
147537
1739
武装组织也做其他的一些事情：
02:41
they build stronger bonds
with the population
with the population
50
149300
2660
它们通过投资社会服务
02:43
by investing in social services.
51
151984
2449
与大众建立更牢固的联系。
02:46
They build schools, they run hospitals,
52
154457
2843
他们建立学校，他们经营医院，
02:49
they set up vocational-training programs
or micro-loan programs.
or micro-loan programs.
53
157324
3756
他们建立职业培训项目或小额贷款项目。
02:53
Hezbollah offers all
of these services and more.
of these services and more.
54
161104
3777
真主党提供所有这些服务，并且不止这些。
02:56
Armed groups also seek
to win the population over
to win the population over
55
164905
2809
武装组织也寻求通过提供政府未提供的东西
02:59
by offering something
that the state is not providing:
that the state is not providing:
56
167738
3900
来赢得大众的支持：
03:03
safety and security.
57
171662
2051
安全和稳定。
03:06
The initial rise of the Taliban
in war-torn Afghanistan,
in war-torn Afghanistan,
58
174141
3960
塔利班在战乱重创的阿富汗的崛起，
03:10
or even the beginning
of the ascent of ISIS,
of the ascent of ISIS,
59
178125
2877
或者甚至是伊斯兰国的崛起，
03:13
can be understood also by looking
at these groups' efforts
at these groups' efforts
60
181026
3058
可以通过看这些团体提供安保的努力
03:16
to provide security.
61
184108
2216
来理解。
03:18
Now, unfortunately, in these cases,
62
186348
2271
现在，不幸的是，在这些案例中，
03:20
the provision of security
came at an unbearably high price
came at an unbearably high price
63
188643
3246
提供安保对大众来说是个
03:23
for the population.
64
191913
1410
难以承受的高代价。
03:25
But in general, providing
social services fills a gap,
social services fills a gap,
65
193347
4241
但是通常情况下，提供社会服务填充了一个缺口，
03:29
a governance gap left by the government,
66
197612
2261
由政府留下的管理缺口，
03:31
and allows these groups
to increase their strength
to increase their strength
67
199897
2595
使得这些集团能够增强自身实力
03:34
and their power.
68
202516
1198
和权利。
03:36
For example, the 2006 electoral victory
of the Palestinian Hamas
of the Palestinian Hamas
69
204040
4406
例如，要理解2006年巴勒斯坦哈马斯的选举胜利
03:40
cannot be understood without
acknowledging the group's social work.
acknowledging the group's social work.
70
208470
3579
就不能不承认集团的社会工作扮演的重要角色。
03:44
Now, this is a really complex picture,
71
212696
2374
现在，情况变得复杂起来，
03:47
yet in the West,
when we look at armed groups,
when we look at armed groups,
72
215094
2477
然而在西方，当我们提起武装集团，
03:49
we only think of the violent side.
73
217595
2202
我们仅仅想到它暴力的一面。
03:51
But that's not enough to understand
these groups' strength,
these groups' strength,
74
219821
2872
但这不足以理解这些集团的力量，
03:54
strategy or long-term vision.
75
222717
2262
策略或长远目标。
03:57
These groups are hybrid.
76
225393
1560
这些集团是混合体。
03:58
They rise because they fill a gap
left by the government,
left by the government,
77
226977
3324
他们的崛起是因为他们填补了政府留下的空白，
04:02
and they emerge
to be both armed and political,
to be both armed and political,
78
230325
3380
他们以武装与政治集团的身份出现，
04:05
engage in violent struggle
and provide governance.
and provide governance.
79
233729
3220
参与暴力斗争、提供管理。
04:09
And the more these organizations
are complex and sophisticated,
are complex and sophisticated,
80
237431
4008
这些组织越复杂、精密，
04:13
the less we can think of them
as the opposite of a state.
as the opposite of a state.
81
241463
3341
他们越不会将自身视为国家的对立面。
04:16
Now, what do you call
a group like Hezbollah?
a group like Hezbollah?
82
244828
2279
现在，你怎么称呼想真主党这样的集团？
04:19
They run part of a territory,
they administer all their functions,
they administer all their functions,
83
247131
3315
他们管理部分领土，有政府所有的功能，
04:22
they pick up the garbage,
they run the sewage system.
they run the sewage system.
84
250470
3134
他们回收垃圾，他们维护排水系统。
04:25
Is this a state? Is it a rebel group?
85
253628
2711
这是政府吗？这是叛乱集团吗？
04:28
Or maybe something else,
something different and new?
something different and new?
86
256720
3337
或是其他一些东西，一些不同的新东西？
04:32
And what about ISIS?
87
260081
1681
那么伊斯兰国呢？
04:33
The lines are blurred.
88
261786
1270
界限模糊了。
04:35
We live in a world of states,
non-states, and in-between,
non-states, and in-between,
89
263080
3758
我们生活在政府、非政府以及二者之间，
04:38
and the more states are weak,
like in the Middle East today,
like in the Middle East today,
90
266862
3413
政府越无力，像今天的中东那样，
04:42
the more non-state actors
step in and fill that gap.
step in and fill that gap.
91
270299
3476
非政府武装组织就会更多地介入，填补那个空白。
04:45
This matters for governments,
because to counter these groups,
because to counter these groups,
92
273799
3126
这对政府来说很重要，因为为了对抗这些集团，
04:48
they will have to invest more
in non-military tools.
in non-military tools.
93
276949
3450
他们将不得不在非军事领域投入更多。
04:53
Filling that governance gap
94
281202
1471
填补这项政府空白，
04:54
has to be at the center
of any sustainable approach.
of any sustainable approach.
95
282697
3429
必须居于任何可持续方式的中心。
04:58
This also matters very much
for peacemaking and peacebuilding.
for peacemaking and peacebuilding.
96
286150
3639
这对于调解和创建和平也很重要。
05:01
If we better understand armed groups,
97
289813
2031
如果我们更好地理解武装集团，
05:03
we will better know
what incentives to offer
what incentives to offer
98
291868
2462
我们将更好地了解该采取何种途径来
05:06
to encourage the transition
from violence to nonviolence.
from violence to nonviolence.
99
294354
3776
实现从暴力到非暴力形式的过渡。
05:10
So in this new contest
between states and non-states,
between states and non-states,
100
298487
3644
因此在这项政府与非政府间的竞赛中，
05:14
military power can win some battles,
101
302155
2652
军事力量可以赢得一些战斗，
05:16
but it will not give us
peace nor stability.
peace nor stability.
102
304831
2833
但是它不会给我们带来和平与稳定。
05:20
To achieve these objectives,
103
308085
1848
为了实现这些目标，
05:21
what we need is a long-term investment
in filling that security gap,
in filling that security gap,
104
309957
4805
我们需要的是填补这项安保空白
05:26
in filling that governance gap
105
314786
2001
填补上政府管理的缺位
05:28
that allowed these groups
to thrive in the first place.
to thrive in the first place.
106
316811
3091
这才是阻止非政府武装组织繁荣的关键.
05:32
Thank you.
107
320220
1151
谢谢。
05:33
(Applause)
108
321395
3557
（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Benedetta Berti - Conflict and security researcherBenedetta Berti studies how conflicts impact civilians.
Why you should listen
Benedetta Berti is an expert on the role of armed groups and the future of armed conflict, especially in the Middle East. She has spent over a decade researching non-state armed groups, from terrorists to insurgents to militias, and has worked with governments, international organizations and NGOs to offer new approaches to better understand and tackle modern conflict. As a security and humanitarian consultant, Berti has designed disarmament campaigns; conducted trainings of counter-insurgency and protection of civilians; worked on violence prevention; and assisted humanitarian organizations on issues related to gaining access to war-torn areas. She has conducted research and worked across the globe -- from Central and Latin America to the Middle East, and from the United States to Eastern Africa -- and has focused her work on some of the world's most complex conflicts, from Syria, to Iraq, to Gaza, to Burundi.
Berti has written four books, and her writing has appeared in Foreign Policy and Foreign Affairs.
Benedetta Berti | Speaker | TED.com