TED2010
Bill Gates: Innovating to zero!
比尔盖茨谈能源：创新到零排放!
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在TED2010上，比尔盖茨透露了他对世界能源的未来愿景，解释了为避免全球性灾难，人类社会急需“能源奇迹”，并描述了他正在扶持的一种全新的核能反应堆，以及实现在2050年前将碳排放量降至零的必要性。
Bill Gates - Philanthropist
A passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation. Full bio
A passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I'm going to talk today about energy and climate.
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我今天要谈的是能源与气候，这可能有点出人意料
00:20
And that might seem a bit surprising because
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我今天要谈的是能源与气候，这可能有点出人意料
00:22
my full-time work at the Foundation is mostly about vaccines and seeds,
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毕竟我在基金会的全职工作主要是关于疾病疫苗和农业种苗的
00:27
about the things that we need to invent and deliver
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那些的确是需要我们发明传播，以改善世上最贫穷的二十亿人的生活的东西
00:30
to help the poorest two billion live better lives.
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那些的确是需要我们发明传播，以改善世上最贫穷的二十亿人的生活的东西
00:35
But energy and climate are extremely important to these people --
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但事实上，能源和气候对这些人极为重要，事实上，比对地球上其他人更加重要
00:40
in fact, more important than to anyone else on the planet.
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但事实上，能源和气候对这些人极为重要，事实上，比对地球上其他人更加重要
00:45
The climate getting worse means that many years, their crops won't grow:
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气候的持续恶化意味着他们的庄稼将多年无法生长，意味着洪涝或干旱
00:50
There will be too much rain, not enough rain,
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气候的持续恶化意味着他们的庄稼将多年无法生长，意味着洪涝或干旱
00:53
things will change in ways
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这些变化将令他们脆弱的环境无法承受
00:55
that their fragile environment simply can't support.
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这些变化将令他们脆弱的环境无法承受
00:59
And that leads to starvation, it leads to uncertainty, it leads to unrest.
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这将导致饥荒，导致动荡，导致社会骚乱
01:04
So, the climate changes will be terrible for them.
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所以，气候变化将给他们带来严重后果，同时，能源价格也对他们至关重要
01:08
Also, the price of energy is very important to them.
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所以，气候变化将给他们带来严重后果，同时，能源价格也对他们至关重要
01:11
In fact, if you could pick just one thing to lower the price of,
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事实上，如果只能降低一样东西的价格以减少贫困，你一定会首选能源价格
01:14
to reduce poverty, by far you would pick energy.
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事实上，如果只能降低一样东西的价格以减少贫困，你一定会首选能源价格
01:18
Now, the price of energy has come down over time.
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能源价格随着人类历史进程逐渐下降，先进文明是建立在先进能源的基础上的
01:22
Really advanced civilization is based on advances in energy.
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能源价格随着人类历史进程逐渐下降，先进文明是建立在先进能源的基础上的
01:28
The coal revolution fueled the Industrial Revolution,
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当年的煤炭革命推进了工业革命
01:32
and, even in the 1900s we've seen a very rapid decline in the price of electricity,
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早在二十世纪初,我们就迎来了电价的快速下跌,这就是我们能够享受冰箱空调的原因
01:38
and that's why we have refrigerators, air-conditioning,
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早在二十世纪初,我们就迎来了电价的快速下跌,这就是我们能够享受冰箱空调的原因
01:41
we can make modern materials and do so many things.
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我们由此可以拥有各种现代化的事物，能够做各种事情
01:45
And so, we're in a wonderful situation with electricity in the rich world.
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得益于电力，我们能在一个富裕的世界里过着美妙的生活
01:52
But, as we make it cheaper -- and let's go for making it twice as cheap --
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但是，当我们进一步降低电价的时候，比如再使其便宜两倍
01:59
we need to meet a new constraint,
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我们就有了一个新的限制，这个限制与二氧化碳有关
02:01
and that constraint has to do with CO2.
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我们就有了一个新的限制，这个限制与二氧化碳有关
02:05
CO2 is warming the planet,
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二氧化碳正在使全球变暖，而计算二氧化碳排放的公式其实非常简单明了
02:08
and the equation on CO2 is actually a very straightforward one.
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二氧化碳正在使全球变暖，而计算二氧化碳排放的公式其实非常简单明了
02:14
If you sum up the CO2 that gets emitted,
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当前二氧化碳巨大的排放量将导致温度上升
02:18
that leads to a temperature increase,
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当前二氧化碳巨大的排放量将导致温度上升
02:21
and that temperature increase leads to some very negative effects:
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温度的升高将引起一系列非常严重的后果
02:25
the effects on the weather; perhaps worse, the indirect effects,
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比如对天气的直接影响，或对生态系统的间接影响，生态系统无法应对剧烈变化的结果就是生态系统的全面崩溃
02:28
in that the natural ecosystems can't adjust to these rapid changes,
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比如对天气的直接影响，或对生态系统的间接影响，生态系统无法应对剧烈变化的结果就是生态系统的全面崩溃
02:33
and so you get ecosystem collapses.
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比如对天气的直接影响，或对生态系统的间接影响，生态系统无法应对剧烈变化的结果就是生态系统的全面崩溃
02:36
Now, the exact amount of how you map
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二氧化碳排放增加和温度升高究竟成怎样的关系，两者间的正反馈效应为何？
02:39
from a certain increase of CO2 to what temperature will be
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二氧化碳排放增加和温度升高究竟成怎样的关系，两者间的正反馈效应为何？
02:43
and where the positive feedbacks are,
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二氧化碳排放增加和温度升高究竟成怎样的关系，两者间的正反馈效应为何？
02:45
there's some uncertainty there, but not very much.
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这中间有一些不确定因素，但不多
02:48
And there's certainly uncertainty about how bad those effects will be,
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至于全球变暖的具体负面影响有多严重，这无法完全确定，但肯定极其严重
02:51
but they will be extremely bad.
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至于全球变暖的具体负面影响有多严重，这无法完全确定，但肯定极其严重
02:54
I asked the top scientists on this several times:
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我为此多次请教过顶尖的科学家们：我们真的一定要将二氧化碳排放降到零吗？
02:56
Do we really have to get down to near zero?
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我为此多次请教过顶尖的科学家们：我们真的一定要将二氧化碳排放降到零吗？
02:59
Can't we just cut it in half or a quarter?
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减少到一半或四分之一不行吗？
03:02
And the answer is that until we get near to zero,
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他们的回答是，除非我们降到零，否则气温将持续上升，那将是一个巨大的挑战
03:06
the temperature will continue to rise.
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他们的回答是，除非我们降到零，否则气温将持续上升，那将是一个巨大的挑战
03:08
And so that's a big challenge.
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他们的回答是，除非我们降到零，否则气温将持续上升，那将是一个巨大的挑战
03:10
It's very different than saying "We're a twelve-foot-high truck trying to get under a ten-foot bridge,
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这不同于让一辆12英尺高的卡车通过限高10英尺的桥，只要想办法挤过去即可
03:15
and we can just sort of squeeze under."
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这不同于让一辆12英尺高的卡车通过限高10英尺的桥，只要想办法挤过去即可
03:18
This is something that has to get to zero.
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二氧化碳的排放是要彻底降到零为止
03:22
Now, we put out a lot of carbon dioxide every year,
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当前我们每年都排放大量的二氧化碳，总量超过260亿吨
03:26
over 26 billion tons.
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当前我们每年都排放大量的二氧化碳，总量超过260亿吨
03:28
For each American, it's about 20 tons;
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美国人约排放量约20吨，贫穷国家人均不到一吨，全球人均排放量约为5吨
03:32
for people in poor countries, it's less than one ton.
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美国人约排放量约20吨，贫穷国家人均不到一吨，全球人均排放量约为5吨
03:35
It's an average of about five tons for everyone on the planet.
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美国人约排放量约20吨，贫穷国家人均不到一吨，全球人均排放量约为5吨
03:39
And, somehow, we have to make changes
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无论如何，我们都要做出改变，直至把这个数字降到零
03:41
that will bring that down to zero.
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无论如何，我们都要做出改变，直至把这个数字降到零
03:44
It's been constantly going up.
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这个数字现在还在继续上升中，只有经济波动才稍稍抑制其上升的势头
03:46
It's only various economic changes that have even flattened it at all,
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这个数字现在还在继续上升中，只有经济波动才稍稍抑制其上升的势头
03:51
so we have to go from rapidly rising
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我们不但要扭转其迅速上升的势头，还要让它下降，并且一路降到零
03:54
to falling, and falling all the way to zero.
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我们不但要扭转其迅速上升的势头，还要让它下降，并且一路降到零
03:57
This equation has four factors,
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这个二氧化碳的公式有四个因素，四者相乘
03:59
a little bit of multiplication:
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这个二氧化碳的公式有四个因素，四者相乘
04:01
So, you've got a thing on the left, CO2, that you want to get to zero,
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等式左面是二氧化碳排放量，我们的目标是让它降到零
04:04
and that's going to be based on the number of people,
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二氧化碳排放＝人口总数 X 人均使用的服务量 X 每单位服务平均耗用能源量 X 每单位能源的二氧化碳排放
04:08
the services each person's using on average,
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二氧化碳排放＝人口总数 X 人均使用的服务量 X 每单位服务平均耗用能源量 X 每单位能源的二氧化碳排放
04:11
the energy on average for each service,
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二氧化碳排放＝人口总数 X 人均使用的服务量 X 每单位服务平均耗用能源量 X 每单位能源的二氧化碳排放
04:14
and the CO2 being put out per unit of energy.
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二氧化碳排放＝人口总数 X 人均使用的服务量 X 每单位服务平均耗用能源量 X 每单位能源的二氧化碳排放
04:18
So, let's look at each one of these
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下面让我们逐个来看各个因子，看看怎样才能将等式最终降为零
04:20
and see how we can get this down to zero.
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下面让我们逐个来看各个因子，看看怎样才能将等式最终降为零
04:24
Probably, one of these numbers is going to have to get pretty near to zero.
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显然，我们需要至少一个因子非常接近于零，这是简单的高中代数 (老美高中才学这个？)
04:28
Now that's back from high school algebra,
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显然，我们需要至少一个因子非常接近于零，这是简单的高中代数 (老美高中才学这个？)♫
04:31
but let's take a look.
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我们来看一下，首先是人口
04:33
First, we've got population.
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我们来看一下，首先是人口
04:35
The world today has 6.8 billion people.
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目前世界上有68亿人，这将继续增长到约90亿人
04:38
That's headed up to about nine billion.
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目前世界上有68亿人，这将继续增长到约90亿人
04:40
Now, if we do a really great job on new vaccines,
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如果我们在新疫苗开发、医疗服务、生殖健康方面的工作做得卓有成效的话
04:44
health care, reproductive health services,
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如果我们在新疫苗开发、医疗服务、生殖健康方面的工作做得卓有成效的话
04:46
we could lower that by, perhaps, 10 or 15 percent,
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这个数字可能可以减少10％到15％，这样的话综合增长率约为1.3
04:50
but there we see an increase of about 1.3.
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这个数字可能可以减少10％到15％，这样的话综合增长率约为1.3
04:54
The second factor is the services we use.
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第二个因子是我们使用的服务
04:57
This encompasses everything:
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这包括所有东西：我们吃的食物，穿的衣服，电视，暖气，都是些非常美好的事物
04:59
the food we eat, clothing, TV, heating.
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这包括所有东西：我们吃的食物，穿的衣服，电视，暖气，都是些非常美好的事物
05:03
These are very good things:
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这包括所有东西：我们吃的食物，穿的衣服，电视，暖气，都是些非常美好的事物
05:06
getting rid of poverty means providing these services
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摆脱贫穷就意味着向地球上每个人提供这些服务，这个因子进一步提高才是好事
05:09
to almost everyone on the planet.
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摆脱贫穷就意味着向地球上每个人提供这些服务，这个因子进一步提高才是好事
05:11
And it's a great thing for this number to go up.
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摆脱贫穷就意味着向地球上每个人提供这些服务，这个因子进一步提高才是好事
05:15
In the rich world, perhaps the top one billion,
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在发达国家里，最富裕的十亿人，或许可以控制消费，减少一些服务享受
05:17
we probably could cut back and use less,
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在发达国家里，最富裕的十亿人，或许可以控制消费，减少一些服务享受
05:19
but every year, this number, on average, is going to go up,
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但总体而言，这个数字将会逐年上升，最终人均享受的服务，将翻一番还不止
05:23
and so, over all, that will more than double
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但总体而言，这个数字将会逐年上升，最终人均享受的服务，将翻一番还不止
05:27
the services delivered per person.
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但总体而言，这个数字将会逐年上升，最终人均享受的服务，将翻一番还不止
05:30
Here we have a very basic service:
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在这一地区，我们享有的服务非常基础：你家里有没有写作业的照明灯光？
05:32
Do you have lighting in your house to be able to read your homework?
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在这一地区，我们享有的服务非常基础：你家里有没有写作业的照明灯光？
05:35
And, in fact, these kids don't, so they're going out
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这些孩子就没有，所以他们要到外面去，坐在路灯下面写作业
05:37
and reading their school work under the street lamps.
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这些孩子就没有，所以他们要到外面去，坐在路灯下面写作业
05:42
Now, efficiency, E, the energy for each service,
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下面一个因素是效率，也就是每项服务所消耗的能源
05:46
here finally we have some good news.
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在这一项上我们总算有了些好消息：这一因子不会持续上升
05:48
We have something that's not going up.
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在这一项上我们总算有了些好消息：这一因子不会持续上升
05:50
Through various inventions and new ways of doing lighting,
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通过各种发明和新的照明方法，通过新技术的汽车，新的建筑方式
05:53
through different types of cars, different ways of building buildings --
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通过各种发明和新的照明方法，通过新技术的汽车，新的建筑方式
05:58
there are a lot of services where you can bring
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我们可以将很多服务所消耗的能源大大降低，个别服务，甚至可以降低百分之九十
06:01
the energy for that service down quite substantially.
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我们可以将很多服务所消耗的能源大大降低，个别服务，甚至可以降低百分之九十
06:05
Some individual services even bring it down by 90 percent.
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我们可以将很多服务所消耗的能源大大降低，个别服务，甚至可以降低百分之九十
06:08
There are other services like how we make fertilizer,
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但另外一些服务，比如化肥生产，航空运输等，可以提升的空间较为有限
06:11
or how we do air transport,
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但另外一些服务，比如化肥生产，航空运输等，可以提升的空间较为有限
06:13
where the rooms for improvement are far, far less.
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但另外一些服务，比如化肥生产，航空运输等，可以提升的空间较为有限
06:17
And so, overall here, if we're optimistic,
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所以，综合来看，对这一项的乐观估计为：我们可能能实现三到六倍的下降
06:19
we may get a reduction of a factor of three to even, perhaps, a factor of six.
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所以，综合来看，对这一项的乐观估计为：我们可能能实现三到六倍的下降
06:26
But for these first three factors now,
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就已讨论三个因素来说，我们最多将排放量从260吨降到130亿吨，这还远远不够
06:29
we've gone from 26 billion to, at best, maybe 13 billion tons,
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就已讨论三个因素来说，我们最多将排放量从260吨降到130亿吨，这还远远不够
06:34
and that just won't cut it.
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就已讨论三个因素来说，我们最多将排放量从260吨降到130亿吨，这还远远不够
06:36
So let's look at this fourth factor --
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最后，我们来看第四个因素，也是最关键的一个
06:38
this is going to be a key one --
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最后，我们来看第四个因素，也是最关键的一个
06:40
and this is the amount of CO2 put out per each unit of energy.
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也就是每单位能源所排放的二氧化碳
06:46
And so the question is: Can you actually get that to zero?
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我们的问题是，这一因素真的能降到零吗？
06:50
If you burn coal, no.
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烧煤肯定不行，烧气也不行
06:52
If you burn natural gas, no.
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烧煤肯定不行，烧气也不行
06:54
Almost every way we make electricity today,
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我们现有的所有发电方式都会产生二氧化碳，除了发展中的的可再生能源与核能
06:57
except for the emerging renewables and nuclear, puts out CO2.
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我们现有的所有发电方式都会产生二氧化碳，除了发展中的的可再生能源与核能
07:03
And so, what we're going to have to do at a global scale,
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所以，我们需要在全球范围内建立一个新系统，我们需要能源奇迹
07:06
is create a new system.
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所以，我们需要在全球范围内建立一个新系统，我们需要能源奇迹
07:09
And so, we need energy miracles.
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所以，我们需要在全球范围内建立一个新系统，我们需要能源奇迹
07:11
Now, when I use the term "miracle," I don't mean something that's impossible.
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虽然我用了“奇迹”一词，但这并不是说这件事是不可能的
07:15
The microprocessor is a miracle. The personal computer is a miracle.
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微处理器是奇迹，个人电脑是奇迹，互联网及其应用也是奇迹
07:20
The Internet and its services are a miracle.
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微处理器是奇迹，个人电脑是奇迹，互联网及其应用也是奇迹
07:23
So, the people here have participated in the creation of many miracles.
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也就是说，在座的各位已经目睹甚至参与了很多奇迹的发生
07:28
Usually, we don't have a deadline,
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一般来说，我们不会对奇迹的发生设置最后期限
07:30
where you have to get the miracle by a certain date.
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一般来说，我们不会对奇迹的发生设置最后期限
07:32
Usually, you just kind of stand by, and some come along, some don't.
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通常，你只是袖手旁观，有些奇迹就发生了，有些则没有
07:36
This is a case where we actually have to drive at full speed
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但在低碳减排这件事上，我们必须全力以赴去推动，从而在最终期限前实现这一奇迹
07:40
and get a miracle in a pretty tight timeline.
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但在低碳减排这件事上，我们必须全力以赴去推动，从而在最终期限前实现这一奇迹
07:45
Now, I thought, "How could I really capture this?
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我想，我怎样才能更好地呈现这一问题呢？有没有一种自然生动的表达？
07:48
Is there some kind of natural illustration,
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我想，我怎样才能更好地呈现这一问题呢？有没有一种自然生动的表达？
07:50
some demonstration that would grab people's imagination here?"
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有没有某种演示能激发人们的想象力？
07:55
I thought back to a year ago when I brought mosquitos,
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我回想起一年前我带了些蚊子到这里来，大家好像还蛮喜欢的
07:59
and somehow people enjoyed that.
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我回想起一年前我带了些蚊子到这里来，大家好像还蛮喜欢的
08:01
(Laughter)
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(盖茨在上一次TED演讲上放了一些蚊子以引起与会者对疟疾的关注)
08:03
It really got them involved in the idea of,
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蚊子让那次的与会者真正地意识到：世界上有些人是与蚊子一起生活的
08:06
you know, there are people who live with mosquitos.
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蚊子让那次的与会者真正地意识到：世界上有些人是与蚊子一起生活的
08:09
So, with energy, all I could come up with is this.
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所以，今天既然在谈能源，我想到带来这个：萤火虫
08:14
I decided that releasing fireflies
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我决定，放飞萤火虫将是我今年对这里环境做出的贡献
08:17
would be my contribution to the environment here this year.
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我决定，放飞萤火虫将是我今年对这里环境做出的贡献
08:21
So here we have some natural fireflies.
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这是几只天然的萤火虫，据说不咬人，说不定它们都懒得出那个罐子
08:24
I'm told they don't bite; in fact, they might not even leave that jar.
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这是几只天然的萤火虫，据说不咬人，说不定它们都懒得出那个罐子
08:27
(Laughter)
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这是几只天然的萤火虫，据说不咬人，说不定它们都懒得出那个罐子
08:30
Now, there's all sorts of gimmicky solutions like that one,
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像萤火虫这样的解决能源问题有奇思妙想有很多，但实际作用相当有限
08:35
but they don't really add up to much.
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像萤火虫这样的解决能源问题有奇思妙想有很多，但实际作用相当有限
08:37
We need solutions -- either one or several --
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我们需要的是解决方案，一个或很多个都行，极具规模性和可靠性的解决方案
08:41
that have unbelievable scale
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我们需要的是解决方案，一个或很多个都行，极具规模性和可靠性的解决方案
08:45
and unbelievable reliability,
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我们需要的是解决方案，一个或很多个都行，极具规模性和可靠性的解决方案
08:47
and, although there's many directions people are seeking,
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尽管人们在多方探索，我觉得目前只有五个方向可以有大作为
08:50
I really only see five that can achieve the big numbers.
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尽管人们在多方探索，我觉得目前只有五个方向可以有大作为
08:54
I've left out tide, geothermal, fusion, biofuels.
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我没有包括潮汐、地热、聚变和生物燃料等，那些都将有所贡献
08:59
Those may make some contribution,
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我没有包括潮汐、地热、聚变和生物燃料等，那些都将有所贡献
09:01
and if they can do better than I expect, so much the better,
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如果它们的表现能超过我的预期，当然更好
09:03
but my key point here
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但关键的是，我们在这五种方式上必须全部大力投入
09:05
is that we're going to have to work on each of these five,
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但关键的是，我们在这五种方式上必须全部大力投入
09:09
and we can't give up any of them because they look daunting,
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不能因为他们看似艰巨而放弃，因为它们都包含着严峻的挑战
09:13
because they all have significant challenges.
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不能因为他们看似艰巨而放弃，因为它们都包含着严峻的挑战
09:17
Let's look first at the burning fossil fuels,
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首先来看一下化石燃料，烧煤或者烧气
09:19
either burning coal or burning natural gas.
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首先来看一下化石燃料，烧煤或者烧气
09:23
What you need to do there, seems like it might be simple, but it's not,
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我们需要做的，说来简单，其实不然
09:26
and that's to take all the CO2, after you've burned it, going out the flue,
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需要采取的措施是把所有燃烧产生的二氧化碳，通过烟囱收集，然后加压、液化,储存
09:32
pressurize it, create a liquid, put it somewhere,
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需要采取的措施是把所有燃烧产生的二氧化碳，通过烟囱收集，然后加压、液化、储存，并保证不泄漏
09:35
and hope it stays there.
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需要采取的措施是把所有燃烧产生的二氧化碳，通过烟囱收集，然后加压、液化、储存，并保证不泄漏
09:37
Now we have some pilot things that do this at the 60 to 80 percent level,
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当前的试验已经能做到60％至80%的水平，但要做到百分之百会十分的困难
09:41
but getting up to that full percentage, that will be very tricky,
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当前的试验已经能做到60％至80%的水平，但要做到百分之百会十分的困难
09:45
and agreeing on where these CO2 quantities should be put will be hard,
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并且在哪里储存那么大量的二氧化碳也容易引起争议
09:51
but the toughest one here is this long-term issue.
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最困难的是这是个长期问题
09:54
Who's going to be sure?
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谁能保证它呢？
09:56
Who's going to guarantee something that is literally billions of times larger
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这些废料体积十亿倍于其它核废料等废品，谁能保证长期安全？
10:00
than any type of waste you think of in terms of nuclear or other things?
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这些废料体积十亿倍于其它核废料等废品，谁能保证长期安全？
10:04
This is a lot of volume.
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这个二氧化碳的量非常大，所以会十分困难
10:07
So that's a tough one.
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这个二氧化碳的量非常大，所以会十分困难
10:09
Next would be nuclear.
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下一个，核能，同样有三个大问题
10:11
It also has three big problems:
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下一个，核能，同样有三个大问题
10:14
Cost, particularly in highly regulated countries, is high;
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它的成本，尤其是在高度管控的国家，非常高
10:18
the issue of the safety, really feeling good about nothing could go wrong,
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安全问题，保证一切有条不紊
10:22
that, even though you have these human operators,
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即使有人工操作
10:25
that the fuel doesn't get used for weapons.
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即使核燃料不会被用作武器
10:28
And then what do you do with the waste?
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还有核废弃物要怎么处理的问题
10:30
And, although it's not very large, there are a lot of concerns about that.
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虽然量并不大，但有很多令人顾虑的地方
10:33
People need to feel good about it.
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好的解决方式必须让人们感到安心
10:35
So three very tough problems that might be solvable,
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这是三个困难但可能可以解决的问题
10:40
and so, should be worked on.
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所以需要继续努力
10:42
The last three of the five, I've grouped together.
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五种能源的最后三个，我会放在一起来讲
10:45
These are what people often refer to as the renewable sources.
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这是人们通常称为可再生能源的三种能源
10:49
And they actually -- although it's great they don't require fuel --
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事实上，它们虽然不需要燃料
10:53
they have some disadvantages.
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但也有不足之处
10:55
One is that the density of energy gathered in these technologies
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首先是这些技术所收集到的能源的密度，要远远小于电厂
11:01
is dramatically less than a power plant.
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首先是这些技术所收集到的能源的密度，要远远小于电厂
11:03
This is energy farming, so you're talking about many square miles,
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这是能源农业，其规模都是平方公里级的
11:07
thousands of time more area than you think of as a normal energy plant.
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比常规的发电厂要大几千倍
11:12
Also, these are intermittent sources.
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还有，这些能源是间歇性的
11:15
The sun doesn't shine all day, it doesn't shine every day,
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太阳不是一整天都有，也不是每天都有
11:18
and, likewise, the wind doesn't blow all the time.
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同样，风也不是一直在吹
11:21
And so, if you depend on these sources,
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如果完全依赖这些来源
11:23
you have to have some way of getting the energy
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你还得有其它渠道来获取能源，以度过间歇期
11:26
during those time periods that it's not available.
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你还得有其它渠道来获取能源，以度过间歇期
11:29
So, we've got big cost challenges here,
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因此，我们面临巨大的成本问题
11:32
we have transmission challenges:
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还有传输方面的挑战
11:34
for example, say this energy source is outside your country;
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比如说，某个能源来源在国外
11:37
you not only need the technology,
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你不仅需要能源技术
11:39
but you have to deal with the risk of the energy coming from elsewhere.
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还要应对能源不在国内的相关风险
11:44
And, finally, this storage problem.
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最后，是储存的问题
11:46
And, to dimensionalize this, I went through and looked at
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为了让这个问题具体化，我仔细研究了所有现有的电池
11:49
all the types of batteries that get made --
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为了让这个问题具体化，我仔细研究了所有现有的电池
11:52
for cars, for computers, for phones, for flashlights, for everything --
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车用的，电脑用的，手机的，手电筒的，所有的东西上用的电池
11:56
and compared that to the amount of electrical energy the world uses,
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把其存储电量与世界每日消耗电能比较
12:01
and what I found is that all the batteries we make now
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我发现我们现在制造的所有电池
12:05
could store less than 10 minutes of all the energy.
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只能储存不到10分钟的所有能源
12:09
And so, in fact, we need a big breakthrough here,
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所以，实际上，我们需要一个重大的突破
12:12
something that's going to be a factor of 100 better
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需要一个比现在的技术好一百倍的解决方案
12:16
than the approaches we have now.
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需要一个比现在的技术好一百倍的解决方案
12:18
It's not impossible, but it's not a very easy thing.
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这并不是不可能的，但也不会很容易
12:22
Now, this shows up when you try to get the intermittent source
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这样，我们可以用间歇性能源
12:26
to be above, say, 20 to 30 percent of what you're using.
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提供20%-30%所需的能量
12:30
If you're counting on it for 100 percent,
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但如果你希望100%地依赖它
12:32
you need an incredible miracle battery.
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你需要一个非常高效的奇迹电池
12:38
Now, how we're going to go forward on this -- what's the right approach?
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那么，我们怎么进行下去呢？正确的方法在哪里？
12:41
Is it a Manhattan Project? What's the thing that can get us there?
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这会是一个曼哈顿计划吗？我们怎么才能到达彼岸？
12:45
Well, we need lots of companies working on this, hundreds.
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我们需要很多公司来共同努力，几百家公司
12:50
In each of these five paths, we need at least a hundred people.
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对五种方法中的每一种，我们都需要至少100人的团队
12:53
And a lot of them, you'll look at and say, "They're crazy." That's good.
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里面的很多人，你会觉得他们很疯狂，这就对了。
12:57
And, I think, here in the TED group,
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我认为，在TED团队里
13:00
we have many people who are already pursuing this.
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已经有很多人开始致力于此
13:04
Bill Gross has several companies, including one called eSolar
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比尔格罗斯有好几家公司，其中一个叫eSolar，拥有非常棒的太阳能发热技术
13:08
that has some great solar thermal technologies.
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比尔格罗斯有好几家公司，其中一个叫eSolar，拥有非常棒的太阳能发热技术
13:10
Vinod Khosla's investing in dozens of companies
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维诺德科斯拉投资了几十家公司
13:14
that are doing great things and have interesting possibilities,
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他们的工作非常棒，并提出很有趣的可能性
13:18
and I'm trying to help back that.
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我也计划支持他们的项目
13:20
Nathan Myhrvold and I actually are backing a company
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其实纳珊米赫沃尔德和我已经在支持一家公司
13:24
that, perhaps surprisingly, is actually taking the nuclear approach.
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也许有点让人吃惊，但这个公司是核能方向的
13:28
There are some innovations in nuclear: modular, liquid.
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在核能方面虽然近年有些小创新， 像模具化，液体使用等等
13:32
And innovation really stopped in this industry quite some ago,
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但其实创新在这个行业已经停止有一段时间了
13:36
so the idea that there's some good ideas laying around is not all that surprising.
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所以现在出现一些好点子不是什么太奇怪的事情
13:41
The idea of TerraPower is that, instead of burning a part of uranium --
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Terrapower的想法是：不去烧常规的铀U235
13:47
the one percent, which is the U235 --
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Terrapower的想法是：不去烧常规的铀U235
13:50
we decided, "Let's burn the 99 percent, the U238."
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而是烧剩下的99%，即U238
13:55
It is kind of a crazy idea.
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这是个有些疯狂的想法，但其实，人们已经讨论了很长时间
13:57
In fact, people had talked about it for a long time,
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这是个有些疯狂的想法，但其实，人们已经讨论了很长时间
14:00
but they could never simulate properly whether it would work or not,
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但一直无法很好地模拟出这是否可行
14:04
and so it's through the advent of modern supercomputers
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有了现代超级计算机的不断升级
14:07
that now you can simulate and see that, yes,
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我们现在能做这个模拟，而且可以预见，
14:09
with the right material's approach, this looks like it would work.
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只要用对材料，这方案是可行的
14:15
And, because you're burning that 99 percent,
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而且，因为我们烧的是以前丢弃的99%核废料
14:18
you have greatly improved cost profile.
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成本可以极大地降低
14:22
You actually burn up the waste, and you can actually use as fuel
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你实际上是把废料变作燃料
14:26
all the leftover waste from today's reactors.
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再也不用担心该怎样处理现有所有核反应堆的废料，这是个很好的消息
14:29
So, instead of worrying about them, you just take that. It's a great thing.
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再也不用担心该怎样处理现有所有核反应堆的废料，这是个很好的消息
14:34
It breathes this uranium as it goes along, so it's kind of like a candle.
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这种技术就像蜡烛一样,逐渐烧尽铀废料
14:38
You can see it's a log there, often referred to as a traveling wave reactor.
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过程就如这根柱子所示,通常被称为浪潮反应堆
14:42
In terms of fuel, this really solves the problem.
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燃料的问题解决了
14:46
I've got a picture here of a place in Kentucky.
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这是肯塔基州的一个废料场
14:49
This is the leftover, the 99 percent,
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这就是那些废料,那99%
14:51
where they've taken out the part they burn now,
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这就是U235已耗尽的燃料
14:53
so it's called depleted uranium.
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被称作耗尽的铀
14:55
That would power the U.S. for hundreds of years.
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这些可以为全美国供电数百年
14:58
And, simply by filtering seawater in an inexpensive process,
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另外，仅仅是通过低成本的海水过滤程序
15:01
you'd have enough fuel for the entire lifetime of the rest of the planet.
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得到的燃料就足以供应地球下半辈子使用
15:06
So, you know, it's got lots of challenges ahead,
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你看, 前面还会有很多挑战
15:10
but it is an example of the many hundreds and hundreds of ideas
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但这只是数百种方法中的一个例子
15:15
that we need to move forward.
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需要我们继续推进
15:18
So let's think: How should we measure ourselves?
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想一想，我们要如何衡量我们的成就
15:21
What should our report card look like?
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我们的成绩单应该打多少分？
15:24
Well, let's go out to where we really need to get,
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先来看一下我们的最终目标，再倒推来看我们的中期目标
15:27
and then look at the intermediate.
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先来看一下我们的最终目标，再倒推来看我们的中期目标
15:29
For 2050, you've heard many people talk about this 80 percent reduction.
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已经有很多人在谈到2050年前减碳80%
15:34
That really is very important, that we get there.
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这真的非常重要，我们必须完成这个目标
15:38
And that 20 percent will be used up by things going on in poor countries,
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而剩下那20%应是贫穷国家的份额
15:42
still some agriculture,
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比如一些农业国家
15:44
hopefully we will have cleaned up forestry, cement.
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但愿，我们到时已经清理了伐木业和水泥业
15:48
So, to get to that 80 percent,
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所以，要达到这80%
15:51
the developed countries, including countries like China,
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发达国家，以及中国这些国家
15:55
will have had to switch their electricity generation altogether.
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需要共同改变它们的发电方式
16:00
So, the other grade is: Are we deploying this zero-emission technology,
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另外一级是，我们是否部署了零排放技术
16:06
have we deployed it in all the developed countries
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我们是否在所有发达国家里都采用了该项技术
16:08
and we're in the process of getting it elsewhere?
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并且在向其他地区推广的过程中
16:11
That's super important.
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这点非常重要
16:13
That's a key element of making that report card.
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这是交出优秀答卷的关键因素
16:17
So, backing up from there, what should the 2020 report card look like?
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从2050年往回推，我们2020年的成绩应该是怎样呢？
16:22
Well, again, it should have the two elements.
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嗯，一样会有两个部分
16:24
We should go through these efficiency measures to start getting reductions:
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我们应该仔细审查那些衡量效率的标准以开始减少排放
16:28
The less we emit, the less that sum will be of CO2,
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我们排放的越少，二氧化碳总量就越少
16:31
and, therefore, the less the temperature.
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温度也就越低
16:33
But in some ways, the grade we get there,
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但从某个角度来说，我们在2020年取得的成绩
16:36
doing things that don't get us all the way to the big reductions,
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做一些有所减排但并非大量减排的事
16:40
is only equally, or maybe even slightly less, important than the other,
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仅仅等同于,或低轻于另一件事情的重要性
16:44
which is the piece of innovation on these breakthroughs.
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那就是带来关键突破的那些创新
16:48
These breakthroughs, we need to move those at full speed,
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我们需要全速达成这些技术突破
16:51
and we can measure that in terms of companies,
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我们可以用参与的公司的数目,
16:54
pilot projects, regulatory things that have been changed.
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试验项目，或是调控政策的变化 来衡量
16:57
There's a lot of great books that have been written about this.
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关于这个话题有许多很好的书
17:00
The Al Gore book, "Our Choice"
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比如，戈尔的《我们的选择》
17:03
and the David McKay book, "Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air."
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大卫麦基的《不再炽热的可持续能源》
17:06
They really go through it and create a framework
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他们用心研究, 并且构建了一个框架
17:09
that this can be discussed broadly,
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便于对该问题的广泛讨论
17:11
because we need broad backing for this.
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因为我们需要对这一问题的广泛支持
17:14
There's a lot that has to come together.
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需要多方大力协作
17:16
So this is a wish.
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这是一个愿望
17:18
It's a very concrete wish that we invent this technology.
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我们发明这项技术是个非常具体非常现实的愿望
17:22
If you gave me only one wish for the next 50 years --
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如果我能为下个50年许一个愿望
17:25
I could pick who's president,
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我可以选择谁来当总统
17:27
I could pick a vaccine, which is something I love,
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或者选择一个疫苗，那是我热爱的事业
17:30
or I could pick that this thing
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或者选择能源这件事
17:32
that's half the cost with no CO2 gets invented --
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发明出能将能源价格减半并且零排放的技术
17:36
this is the wish I would pick.
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我肯定会选择能源
17:38
This is the one with the greatest impact.
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这将是影响最大的一个
17:40
If we don't get this wish,
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如果我们没法实现这个愿望
17:42
the division between the people who think short term and long term will be terrible,
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考虑短期目标和长期目标的人们之间会有巨大分歧
17:46
between the U.S. and China, between poor countries and rich,
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美国与中国，穷国和富国之间, 会有巨大分歧
17:49
and most of all the lives of those two billion will be far worse.
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而二十亿人最穷的人中大多数的生活会极大恶化
17:54
So, what do we have to do?
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那么我们必须做什么？
17:56
What am I appealing to you to step forward and drive?
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我恳求你们参与推动的到底是什么？
18:01
We need to go for more research funding.
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我们应该增加研究资助
18:04
When countries get together in places like Copenhagen,
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在像哥本哈根这样的会议上
18:06
they shouldn't just discuss the CO2.
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各国不应该只讨论二氧化碳减排日程表
18:09
They should discuss this innovation agenda,
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也应该讨论创新的日程表
18:11
and you'd be stunned at the ridiculously low levels of spending
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对这些创新方法的投入之低
18:16
on these innovative approaches.
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绝对会让你震惊
18:18
We do need the market incentives -- CO2 tax, cap and trade --
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我们确实需要一些市场激励，二氧化碳税费，限额和交易
18:22
something that gets that price signal out there.
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用这些东西来发出价格信号
18:25
We need to get the message out.
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我们需要把信息传出去
18:27
We need to have this dialogue be a more rational, more understandable dialogue,
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我们应该让这一对话更加理性，更加易于理解
18:30
including the steps that the government takes.
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包括政府所采取的措施
18:33
This is an important wish, but it is one I think we can achieve.
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这是一个重要的愿望，并且我觉得这是一个可以实现的愿望
18:37
Thank you.
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谢谢
18:39
(Applause)
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谢谢
18:50
Thank you.
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谢谢
18:52
Chris Anderson: Thank you. Thank you.
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主持人：谢谢
18:54
(Applause)
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谢谢
18:59
Thank you. So to understand more about TerraPower, right --
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谢谢，我对Terrapower更了解了
19:05
I mean, first of all, can you give a sense of what scale of investment this is?
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首先，你能大概说下这个投资会是多大规模吗？
19:10
Bil Gates: To actually do the software, buy the supercomputer,
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比尔盖茨：如果只是买超级计算机, 做出软件
19:14
hire all the great scientists, which we've done,
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雇佣优秀的科学家，这些我们已经做到了
19:16
that's only tens of millions,
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大概只用几千万
19:19
and even once we test our materials out in a Russian reactor
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我们甚至去一个俄罗斯的反应堆测试了我们的材料
19:22
to make sure that our materials work properly,
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看看它是否能够正常工作
19:26
then you'll only be up in the hundreds of millions.
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加起来也不过花费几个亿
19:28
The tough thing is building the pilot reactor;
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最难的是建造试验反应堆
19:31
finding the several billion, finding the regulator, the location
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筹措几十亿，找到管理者，选定地点
19:36
that will actually build the first one of these.
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这样才能建起第一座这样的核电站
19:38
Once you get the first one built, if it works as advertised,
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当你建起第一座后，如果它确实像说的那样有用，
19:42
then it's just clear as day, because the economics, the energy density,
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那一切就都简单了，因为它的经济性、能源密度
19:46
are so different than nuclear as we know it.
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与我们所熟悉的核能完全不同
19:48
CA: And so, to understand it right, this involves building deep into the ground
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主持人：那么，是不是说，这需要往地下建造
19:52
almost like a vertical kind of column of nuclear fuel,
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一个用这种废弃铀建成的垂直核燃料柱
19:56
of this sort of spent uranium,
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一个用这种废弃铀建成的垂直核燃料柱
19:58
and then the process starts at the top and kind of works down?
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然后反应从上往下渐进？
20:01
BG: That's right. Today, you're always refueling the reactor,
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盖茨：没错。现在的核反应堆, 你得不停的重新加燃料
20:04
so you have lots of people and lots of controls that can go wrong:
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所以有很多人为因素和控制可能出错
20:07
that thing where you're opening it up and moving things in and out,
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你需要打开反应堆, 把核燃料搬进搬出，这些都可能出错，一点儿不保险
20:10
that's not good.
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你需要打开反应堆, 把核燃料搬进搬出，这些都可能出错，一点儿不保险
20:12
So, if you have very cheap fuel that you can put 60 years in --
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所以，如果有非常便宜的燃料，一根木柱的大小，就够使用60年
20:17
just think of it as a log --
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所以，如果有非常便宜的燃料，一根木柱的大小，就够使用60年
20:19
put it down and not have those same complexities.
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把它放下，没有那些复杂的后果
20:22
And it just sits there and burns for the 60 years, and then it's done.
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放那儿烧个六十年，然后没了
20:27
CA: It's a nuclear power plant that is its own waste disposal solution.
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主持人：那样的核电站本身就是自身废弃物的处理站
20:31
BG: Yeah. Well, what happens with the waste,
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盖茨：没错。这个过程产生的垃圾
20:33
you can let it sit there -- there's a lot less waste under this approach --
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你可以放在那儿，用这种办法只产生很少的废料
20:38
then you can actually take that,
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你也可以把它放到另外一个核电站里烧掉
20:40
and put it into another one and burn that.
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你也可以把它放到另外一个核电站里烧掉
20:43
And we start off actually by taking the waste that exists today,
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我们可以从处理现有核电站产生的垃圾开始
20:47
that's sitting in these cooling pools or dry casking by reactors --
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那些现在在冷却池或者反应堆旁的干罐里的废物
20:51
that's our fuel to begin with.
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这是我们开始时的燃料
20:53
So, the thing that's been a problem from those reactors
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这样，当前那些反应堆自身的麻烦，却成为我们的原料，同时还大大减少了废物
20:56
is actually what gets fed into ours,
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这样，当前那些反应堆自身的麻烦，却成为我们的原料，同时还大大减少了废物
20:58
and you're reducing the volume of the waste quite dramatically
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这样，当前那些反应堆自身的麻烦，却成为我们的原料，同时还大大减少了废物
21:01
as you're going through this process.
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这样，当前那些反应堆自身的麻烦，却成为我们的原料，同时还大大减少了废物
21:03
CA: I mean, you're talking to different people around the world
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主持人：你和其他地方的人的谈话中
21:05
about the possibilities here.
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谈到这些可能性的时候
21:07
Where is there most interest in actually doing something with this?
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哪些人对实施这件事兴趣最大？
21:10
BG: Well, we haven't picked a particular place,
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盖茨：我们还没有选定一个特定的地方
21:13
and there's all these interesting disclosure rules about anything that's called "nuclear,"
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由于到处都有关于核问题的保密规定
21:21
so we've got a lot of interest,
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很多人表示了兴趣
21:23
that people from the company have been in Russia, India, China --
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俄罗斯，印度，中国的公司都表现了浓厚的兴趣
21:27
I've been back seeing the secretary of energy here,
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我也曾经在这里找过能源部长
21:29
talking about how this fits into the energy agenda.
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谈论如何将这件事融入能源日程表
21:33
So I'm optimistic. You know, the French and Japanese have done some work.
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总地来说我很乐观，同时，法国和日本已经做了一些工作
21:36
This is a variant on something that has been done.
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这是已有成就的一个变体
21:40
It's an important advance, but it's like a fast reactor,
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这是一个重要的进步，但像一个快速反应堆
21:44
and a lot of countries have built them,
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很多国家已经修建了这样的反应堆
21:46
so anybody who's done a fast reactor is a candidate to be where the first one gets built.
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只要你已经有了快速反应堆，就可能成为第一个核垃圾重利用站的建设者
21:51
CA: So, in your mind, timescale and likelihood
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主持人：就你看来，实现这一计划的时间跨度和可能性如何？
21:56
of actually taking something like this live?
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主持人：就你看来，实现这一计划的时间跨度和可能性如何？
21:59
BG: Well, we need -- for one of these high-scale, electro-generation things
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盖茨：建一个这种大规模的电站，并且成本要非常低
22:04
that's very cheap,
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盖茨：建一个这种大规模的电站，并且成本要非常低
22:06
we have 20 years to invent and then 20 years to deploy.
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我们有20年时间来发明，再有20年时间来执行
22:10
That's sort of the deadline that the environmental models
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这大致也是我们的环境模型所计算出的最终期限
22:15
have shown us that we have to meet.
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这大致也是我们的环境模型所计算出的最终期限
22:17
And, you know, TerraPower, if things go well -- which is wishing for a lot --
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如果Terrapower一切顺利的话，当然那样会很不容易，可以很容易地满足这一要求
22:22
could easily meet that.
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如果Terrapower一切顺利的话，当然那样会很不容易，可以很容易地满足这一要求
22:24
And there are, fortunately now, dozens of companies --
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目前还有数十家公司在从事这一事业
22:27
we need it to be hundreds --
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我们需要几百家
22:29
who, likewise, if their science goes well,
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如果它们科研进展顺利
22:31
if the funding for their pilot plants goes well,
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如果他们的试验电站的筹资顺利
22:34
that they can compete for this.
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他们都可以竞争这项任务
22:36
And it's best if multiple succeed,
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如果能够多方成功那是最好
22:38
because then you could use a mix of these things.
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因为这样就可以同时利用多种方式
22:41
We certainly need one to succeed.
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但我们至少需要一种能够成功
22:43
CA: In terms of big-scale possible game changes,
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主持人：如果说到可能的大规模的创新
22:46
is this the biggest that you're aware of out there?
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这个是不是你知道的最大的一个
22:49
BG: An energy breakthrough is the most important thing.
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盖茨：能源的突破是最重要的事
22:53
It would have been, even without the environmental constraint,
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即使没有环境的限制，它还会是最重要的问题
22:55
but the environmental constraint just makes it so much greater.
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环境的限制使它变得更为突出，更为紧迫
23:00
In the nuclear space, there are other innovators.
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在核领域，还有其它的创新者
23:03
You know, we don't know their work as well as we know this one,
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但我对他们的工作,我们没有像对这个项目一样清楚
23:06
but the modular people, that's a different approach.
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有些人在模块方面的创新,是另外一种方式
23:09
There's a liquid-type reactor, which seems a little hard,
408
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还有一种液态反应堆，实现起来有点困难
23:13
but maybe they say that about us.
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但也许他们看我们的方式也觉得困难
23:15
And so, there are different ones,
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所以，有很多不同的办法
23:18
but the beauty of this is a molecule of uranium
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但核能的美妙之处在于, 一个铀分子所含的能量是其它能源（比如煤）的一百万倍
23:21
has a million times as much energy as a molecule of, say, coal,
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但核能的美妙之处在于, 一个铀分子所含的能量是其它能源（比如煤）的一百万倍
23:25
and so -- if you can deal with the negatives,
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如果能够处理好负面因素，主要是辐射
23:28
which are essentially the radiation --
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如果能够处理好负面因素，主要是辐射
23:31
the footprint and cost, the potential,
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其碳排放、成本以及潜能潜能，就其各种因素而言，将是无与伦比的
23:34
in terms of effect on land and various things,
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其碳排放、成本以及潜能潜能，就其各种因素而言，将是无与伦比的
23:36
is almost in a class of its own.
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其碳排放、成本以及潜能潜能，就其各种因素而言，将是无与伦比的
23:40
CA: If this doesn't work, then what?
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主持人；如果我们没能成功怎么办？
23:44
Do we have to start taking emergency measures
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我们得采取什么紧急措施
23:48
to try and keep the temperature of the earth stable?
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来保证地球温度的稳定？
23:51
BG: If you get into that situation,
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盖茨：如果事情发展到那一步
23:53
it's like if you've been over-eating, and you're about to have a heart attack:
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就像吃的太多，可能会得心脏病一样
23:58
Then where do you go? You may need heart surgery or something.
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怎么办？你可能需要心脏手术之类的
24:02
There is a line of research on what's called geoengineering,
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有一种研究叫做地球工程学
24:06
which are various techniques that would delay the heating
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通过各种技术来延缓全球变暖
24:09
to buy us 20 or 30 years to get our act together.
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可以为我们争取20-30年的时间来共同行动
24:12
Now, that's just an insurance policy.
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不过,那就像是一个保险政策
24:14
You hope you don't need to do that.
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你希望你不会用到
24:16
Some people say you shouldn't even work on the insurance policy
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有些人说根本不应该研究保险措施
24:18
because it might make you lazy,
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因为这会使人懈怠
24:20
that you'll keep eating because you know heart surgery will be there to save you.
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你会持续进食，反正你知道心脏手术可以挽救你
24:24
I'm not sure that's wise, given the importance of the problem,
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考虑到问题的重要性，我不知道这样是否明智
24:27
but there's now the geoengineering discussion
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现在关于地球工程的讨论
24:31
about -- should that be in the back pocket in case things happen faster,
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应该作为一个后备选择, 以防形势恶化得更快
24:35
or this innovation goes a lot slower than we expect?
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或者技术创新迟于我们的预期
24:40
CA: Climate skeptics: If you had a sentence or two to say to them,
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主持人：对气候变化论的怀疑者, 如果让你对他们说一两句话
24:45
how might you persuade them that they're wrong?
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你会怎么说服他们？
24:50
BG: Well, unfortunately, the skeptics come in different camps.
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盖茨：很不幸，怀疑论者来自不同阵营
24:54
The ones who make scientific arguments are very few.
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他们中很少持有科学证据
24:58
Are they saying that there's negative feedback effects
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他们说那些负反馈的结果是由于云的关系
25:01
that have to do with clouds that offset things?
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他们说那些负反馈的结果是由于云的关系
25:03
There are very, very few things that they can even say
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他们极少能举出令人信服的证据
25:06
there's a chance in a million of those things.
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即使是百万分之一的概率
25:09
The main problem we have here, it's kind of like AIDS.
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这里的主要问题就像艾滋病
25:12
You make the mistake now, and you pay for it a lot later.
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现在犯错，将来得加倍的承受痛苦
25:16
And so, when you have all sorts of urgent problems,
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因此，当你遇到各种紧要问题时
25:20
the idea of taking pain now that has to do with a gain later,
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现在承受痛苦关系到将来的收益
25:23
and a somewhat uncertain pain thing --
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而且还是个不确定的痛苦
25:26
in fact, the IPCC report, that's not necessarily the worst case,
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实际上，IPCC(政府间气候变化专门委员会)报告，那还不是最坏的情况
25:32
and there are people in the rich world who look at IPCC
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而且，发达国家也有人看了报告后，说这没什么大不了的
25:34
and say, "OK, that isn't that big of a deal."
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而且，发达国家也有人看了报告后，说这没什么大不了的
25:38
The fact is it's that uncertain part that should move us towards this.
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事实上, 不确定的方面应该促进我们向这方面努力
25:42
But my dream here is that, if you can make it economic,
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但是我的愿望是, 如果你把能源生产变得经济了，同时也符合二氧化碳排放限制
25:45
and meet the CO2 constraints,
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但是我的愿望是, 如果你把能源生产变得经济了，同时也符合二氧化碳排放限制
25:47
then the skeptics say, "OK,
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那么怀疑论者会说：好的，虽然我不关心二氧化碳排放的事情
25:49
I don't care that it doesn't put out CO2,
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那么怀疑论者会说：好的，虽然我不关心二氧化碳排放的事情
25:51
I kind of wish it did put out CO2,
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我甚至还有点希望它会排放二氧化碳
25:53
but I guess I'll accept it because it's cheaper than what's come before."
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但我会采纳这一新方法,因为能源比以前更便宜了
25:57
(Applause)
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但我会采纳这一新方法,因为能源比以前更便宜了
26:01
CA: And so, that would be your response to the Bjorn Lomborg argument,
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主持人: 是否可以说，这就是你对比约恩隆伯格的回应
26:05
that basically if you spend all this energy trying to solve the CO2 problem,
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也就是说，如果你花所有精力来解决二氧化碳的问题，那就会取代其他目标
26:09
it's going to take away all your other goals
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也就是说，如果你花所有精力来解决二氧化碳的问题，那就会取代其他目标
26:11
of trying to rid the world of poverty and malaria and so forth,
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比如解决世界贫困, 或者疟疾等等的目标
26:14
it's a stupid waste of the Earth's resources to put money towards that
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把钱投到那些领域是对资本的浪费，我们有更重要的事情要做
26:18
when there are better things we can do.
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把钱投到那些领域是对资本的浪费，我们有更重要的事情要做
26:20
BG: Well, the actual spending on the R&D piece --
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盖茨：实际的研发投入其实没多少，虽说美国应该每年多投入100亿在这上面，这应该不会影响其他事情
26:23
say the U.S. should spend 10 billion a year more than it is right now --
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盖茨：实际的研发投入其实没多少，虽说美国应该每年多投入100亿在这上面，这应该不会影响其他事情
26:27
it's not that dramatic.
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盖茨：实际的研发投入其实没多少，虽说美国应该每年多投入100亿在这上面，这应该不会影响其他事情
26:29
It shouldn't take away from other things.
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盖茨：实际的研发投入其实没多少，虽说美国应该每年多投入100亿在这上面，这应该不会影响其他事情
26:31
The thing you get into big money on, and this, reasonable people can disagree,
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对于需要投巨资的事业, 如果不经济没有回报，对我而言基本是浪费，这点有些人可能持不同意见
26:34
is when you have something that's non-economic and you're trying to fund that --
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对于需要投巨资的事业, 如果不经济没有回报，对我而言基本是浪费，这点有些人可能持不同意见
26:37
that, to me, mostly is a waste.
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对于需要投巨资的事业, 如果不经济没有回报，对我而言基本是浪费，这点有些人可能持不同意见
26:40
Unless you're very close and you're just funding the learning curve
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除非你已经很接近成功, 而且你在投资学习曲线，并且它将会变得很便宜
26:43
and it's going to get very cheap,
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除非你已经很接近成功, 而且你在投资学习曲线，并且它将会变得很便宜
26:45
I believe we should try more things that have a potential
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否则，我认为我们应该多方尝试具有低成本潜力的方案
26:49
to be far less expensive.
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否则，我认为我们应该多方尝试具有低成本潜力的方案
26:51
If the trade-off you get into is, "Let's make energy super expensive,"
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如果为了解决气候问题，最后让能源变的异常昂贵，贵到只有富人用得起
26:56
then the rich can afford that.
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如果为了解决气候问题，最后让能源变的异常昂贵，贵到只有富人用得起
26:58
I mean, all of us here could pay five times as much for our energy
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对在坐各位来说，如果能源价格提高五倍，还不至于影响我们的生活方式
27:01
and not change our lifestyle.
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对在坐各位来说，如果能源价格提高五倍，还不至于影响我们的生活方式
27:03
The disaster is for that two billion.
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但对地球上那二十亿穷人来说就是个灾难了
27:05
And even Lomborg has changed.
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而且隆伯格的观点已经变了，他的论点现在是，为什么研究没有得到更多的关注
27:07
His shtick now is, "Why isn't the R&D getting more discussed?"
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而且隆伯格的观点已经变了，他的论点现在是，为什么研究没有得到更多的关注
27:12
He's still, because of his earlier stuff,
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基于历史的原因, 他还是属于怀疑论阵营，但是他已经意识到那是个相当孤独的阵营
27:14
still associated with the skeptic camp,
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基于历史的原因, 他还是属于怀疑论阵营，但是他已经意识到那是个相当孤独的阵营
27:16
but he's realized that's a pretty lonely camp,
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基于历史的原因, 他还是属于怀疑论阵营，但是他已经意识到那是个相当孤独的阵营
27:19
and so, he's making the R&D point.
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所以,他开始摆出关于研发方面的观点
27:22
And so there is a thread of something that I think is appropriate.
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我觉得那是一个非常值得探讨的话题，因为对科研的投入之少实在是不可理喻
27:27
The R&D piece, it's crazy how little it's funded.
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我觉得那是一个非常值得探讨的话题，因为对科研的投入之少实在是不可理喻
27:30
CA: Well Bill, I suspect I speak on the behalf of most people here
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主持人：比尔, 我想这里的大多数人都跟我一样，真心希望你的梦想成真，非常感谢！
27:33
to say I really hope your wish comes true. Thank you so much.
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主持人：比尔, 我想这里的大多数人都跟我一样，真心希望你的梦想成真，非常感谢！
27:36
BG: Thank you.
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盖茨：谢谢大家
27:38
(Applause)
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盖茨：谢谢大家
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Gates - PhilanthropistA passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation.
Why you should listen
Bill Gates is the founder and former CEO of Microsoft. A geek icon, tech visionary and business trailblazer, Gates' leadership -- fueled by his long-held dream that millions might realize their potential through great software -- made Microsoft a personal computing powerhouse and a trendsetter in the Internet dawn. Whether you're a suit, chef, quant, artist, media maven, nurse or gamer, you've probably used a Microsoft product today.
In summer of 2008, Gates left his day-to-day role with Microsoft to focus on philanthropy. Holding that all lives have equal value (no matter where they're being lived), the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has now donated staggering sums to HIV/AIDS programs, libraries, agriculture research and disaster relief -- and offered vital guidance and creative funding to programs in global health and education. Gates believes his tech-centric strategy for giving will prove the killer app of planet Earth's next big upgrade.
Read a collection of Bill and Melinda Gates' annual letters, where they take stock of the Gates Foundation and the world. And follow his ongoing thinking on his personal website, The Gates Notes. His new paper, "The Next Epidemic," is published by the New England Journal of Medicine.
Bill Gates | Speaker | TED.com