TEDxParis 2010
Guy-Philippe Goldstein: How cyberattacks threaten real-world peace
Guy-Philippe Goldstein : Hvordan cyberangreb truer den virkelige verdens fred
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Oftere og oftere udfører nationer angreb med cybervåben -- usynlige angreb på andre landes computersystemer som ikke efterlader noget spor. (Tænk på Stuxnet ormen.) På TEDxParis Guy-Philippe Goldstein viser hvordan cyberangreb kan springe fra den digitale verden til den fysiske og udløse væbnet konflikt -- samt hvordan vi kan afværge denne global sikkerhedstrussel.
Guy-Philippe Goldstein - Author
Guy-Philippe Goldstein is the author of Babel Minute Zero, a novel that examines the reality of cyberwar in our current geopolitical topography. Full bio
Guy-Philippe Goldstein is the author of Babel Minute Zero, a novel that examines the reality of cyberwar in our current geopolitical topography. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Good afternoon.
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God eftermiddag.
00:16
If you have followed
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Hvis du har fulgt de
00:18
diplomatic news in the past weeks,
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diplomatiske nyheder i de forløbne uger
00:20
you may have heard of a kind of crisis
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har du muligvis hørt om en slags krise
00:22
between China and the U.S.
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mellem Kina og USA
00:24
regarding cyberattacks
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vedrørende cyberangreb
00:26
against the American company Google.
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mod det amerikanske selskab Google.
00:28
Many things have been said about this.
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Mange ting er blevet sagt om dette
00:30
Some people have called a cyberwar
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som nogle mennesker har kaldt en cyberkrig
00:32
what may actually be
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men faktisk bare kan være
00:34
just a spy operation --
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en spionageoperation--
00:36
and obviously, a quite mishandled one.
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og naturligvis en helt fejlhåndteret en.
00:38
However, this episode reveals
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Denne episode afslører dog
00:41
the growing anxiety in the Western world
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den voksende bekymring i den vestlige verden
00:43
regarding these emerging cyber weapons.
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hvad angår disse nye cybervåben.
00:46
It so happens that these weapons are dangerous.
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Det er også rigtigt at disse våben er farlige.
00:48
They're of a new nature:
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De er af ny karakter:
00:50
they could lead the world
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De kunne føre verden
00:52
into a digital conflict
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i en digital konflikt
00:54
that could turn into an armed struggle.
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der kunne forvandles til en væbnet kamp.
00:56
These virtual weapons can also destroy the physical world.
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Disse virtuelle våben kan også ødelægge den fysiske verden.
01:01
In 1982, in the middle of the Cold War
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I 1982, midt i den kolde krig
01:04
in Soviet Siberia,
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i sovjetisk Sibirien,
01:06
a pipeline exploded with a burst of 3 kilotons,
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eksploderede en pipeline med en kraft på 3 kilotons,
01:10
the equivalent of a fourth of the Hiroshima bomb.
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svarende til en fjerdedel af Hiroshimabomben.
01:12
Now we know today -- this was revealed
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Vi ved i dag -- det blev afsløret
01:14
by Thomas Reed,
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af Thomas Reed,
01:16
Ronald Reagan's former U.S. Air Force Secretary --
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Ronald Reagans tidligere U.S. Air Force sekretær--
01:18
this explosion was actually the result
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at denne eksplosion faktisk var resultatet
01:21
of a CIA sabotage operation,
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af en CIA sabotageoperation
01:23
in which they had managed
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hvor de havde formået
01:25
to infiltrate the IT management systems
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at infiltrere IT styringssystemet
01:27
of that pipeline.
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for denne rørledning.
01:29
More recently, the U.S. government revealed
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For nylig, har den amerikanske regering afsløret
01:32
that in September 2008, more than 3 million people
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at i september 2008, blev mere end 3 millioner mennesker
01:35
in the state of Espirito Santo in Brazil
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i delstaten Espirito Santo i Brasilien
01:38
were plunged into darkness,
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mørkelagt,
01:40
victims of a blackmail operation from cyber pirates.
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som ofre for en afpresningsoperation udført af cyberpirater.
01:45
Even more worrying for the Americans,
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Endnu mere bekymrende for amerikanerne,
01:47
in December 2008 the holiest of holies,
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i december 2008 den helligste af hellige,
01:50
the IT systems of CENTCOM,
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IT-systemer i CENTCOM,
01:52
the central command
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kommandocentralen som
01:54
managing the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan,
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leder krigene i Irak og Afghanistan,
01:57
may have been infiltrated by hackers
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muligvis har været infiltreret af hackere
01:59
who used these:
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der bruger disse
02:02
plain but infected USB keys.
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almindelig men inficerede USB-nøgler.
02:04
And with these keys, they may have been able
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Og med disse nøgler, kan de have været stand til
02:06
to get inside CENTCOM's systems,
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at komme ind i CENTCOMSs systemer,
02:08
to see and hear everything,
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og se og høre alt,
02:10
and maybe even infect some of them.
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og måske endda inficere nogle af dem.
02:12
As a result, the Americans take the threat very seriously.
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Resultatet er, at amerikanerne tager truslen meget alvorligt.
02:14
I'll quote General James Cartwright,
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Jeg vil citere General James Cartwright,
02:16
Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,
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Næstformand Joint Chiefs of Staff,
02:18
who says in a report to Congress
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som siger i en rapport til Kongressen
02:20
that cyberattacks could be as powerful as
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at cyberangreb kunne være lige så stærke som
02:23
weapons of mass destruction.
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masseødelæggelsesvåben.
02:26
Moreover, the Americans have decided
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Derudover har amerikanerne besluttet
02:28
to spend over 30 billion dollars
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at brug over 30 milliarder dollars
02:30
in the next five years
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i de næste fem år
02:32
to build up their cyberwar capabilities.
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på at opbygge deres cyberkrigskapaciteter.
02:34
And across the world today, we see
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Og i hele verden i dag, ser vi
02:36
a sort of cyber arms race,
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en slags cybervåbenkapløb,
02:39
with cyberwar units
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med cyberkrigsenheder
02:41
built up by countries like North Korea
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bygget op af lande som Nordkorea
02:43
or even Iran.
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eller endda Iran.
02:44
Yet, what you'll never hear
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Endnu, hvad du aldrig vil høre
02:46
from spokespeople
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fra talsmænd
02:48
from the Pentagon or the French Department of Defence
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fra Pentagon eller det franske forsvarsministerium
02:51
is that the question isn't really
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er, at spørgsmålet handler ikke om
02:53
who's the enemy, but actually
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hvem der er fjenden, men faktisk
02:55
the very nature of cyber weapons.
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selve karakteren af cybervåben.
02:58
And to understand why, we must look at how,
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Og for at forstå hvorfor, må vi se på, hvordan
03:00
through the ages, military technologies
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militære teknologier gennem tiderne,
03:03
have maintained or destroyed
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har vedligeholdt eller ødelagt
03:05
world peace.
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freden i verden.
03:08
For example,
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Eksempelvis
03:10
if we'd had TEDxParis
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Hvis vi havde haft TEDxParis
03:11
350 years ago,
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for 350 år siden
03:13
we would have talked about the military innovation of the day --
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Ville vi have talt om datidens militære innovation --
03:16
the massive Vauban-style fortifications --
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massive Vauban befæstninger --
03:19
and we could have predicted
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og vi kunne have forudset
03:21
a period of stability in the world or in Europe.
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en periode med stabilitet i verden eller i Europa.
03:24
which was indeed the case in Europe
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der var faktisk tilfældet i Europa
03:27
between 1650 and 1750.
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mellem 1650 og 1750.
03:29
Similarly, if we'd had this talk
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På samme måde, hvis vi havde haft denne snak
03:32
30 or 40 years ago, we would have seen
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30 eller 40 år siden, ville vi have set
03:35
how the rise of nuclear weapons,
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hvordan stigningen af atomvåben,
03:37
and the threat of mutually assured destruction they imply,
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og den trussel om gensidigt sikret udslettelse som de indebar,
03:41
prevents a direct fight between the two superpowers.
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forhindrede en direkte kamp mellem de to supermagter.
03:45
However, if we'd had this talk 60 years ago,
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Men, hvis vi havde haft denne snak for 60 år siden,
03:47
we would have seen how the emergence
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Vi ville have set hvordan fremkomsten
03:50
of new aircraft and tank technologies,
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nye luftfartøjer og kampvognsteknologier,
03:53
which give the advantage to the attacker,
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som giver fordelen til angriberen,
03:56
make the Blitzkrieg doctrine very credible
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gøre Blitzkrieg doktrinen meget troværdig
03:59
and thus create the possibility of war in Europe.
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og dermed skabe muligheden for krig i Europa.
04:02
So military technologies
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Så militære teknologier
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can influence the course of the world,
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kan påvirke verdens retning,
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can make or break world peace --
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kan afgøre knald eller fald for verdensfreden--
04:08
and there lies the issue with cyber weapons.
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og der ligger problemet med cybervåben.
04:10
The first issue:
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Det første spørgsmål:
04:12
Imagine a potential enemy announcing
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Forestil dig en potentiel fjende annoncerer
04:15
they're building a cyberwar unit,
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at de opbygger en cyberkrigsenhed,
04:17
but only for their country's defense.
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men kun til deres lands forsvar.
04:19
Okay, but what distinguishes it
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Okay, men hvad adskiller det
04:22
from an offensive unit?
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fra en offensiv enhed?
04:24
It gets even more complicated
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Det bliver endnu mere kompliceret
04:26
when the doctrines of use become ambiguous.
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når doktriner for brug bliver flertydige.
04:30
Just 3 years ago, both the U.S. and France
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For kun 3 år siden ville både USA og Frankrig
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were saying they were investing militarily in cyberspace,
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investere militært i cyberspace,
04:38
strictly to defend their IT systems.
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udelukkende for at forsvare deres IT-systemer.
04:41
But today both countries say
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Men i dag siger begge lande
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the best defense is to attack.
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det bedste forsvar er at angribe.
04:46
And so, they're joining China,
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Og så de gør som Kina,
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whose doctrine of use for 15 years has been
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hvis doktrinen om anvendelse i 15 år har været
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both defensive and offensive.
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både defensiv og offensiv.
04:55
The second issue:
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Det andet spørgsmål:
04:57
Your country could be under cyberattack
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Dit land kunne være under cyberangreb
05:01
with entire regions plunged into total darkness,
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med hele regioner mørkelagt,
05:04
and you may not even know
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og du kan ikke engang vide
05:06
who's attacking you.
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hvem der angriber dig.
05:08
Cyber weapons have this peculiar feature:
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Cybervåben har denne ejendommelige funktion,
05:10
they can be used
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at de kan bruges
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without leaving traces.
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uden at efterlade spor.
05:13
This gives a tremendous advantage to the attacker,
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Dette giver en kolossal fordel til angriberen,
05:15
because the defender
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fordi forsvaren
05:17
doesn't know who to fight back against.
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ikke ved, hvem han skal kæmpe i mod.
05:19
And if the defender retaliates against the wrong adversary,
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Og hvis forsvaren gengælder mod den forkerte modstander,
05:21
they risk making one more enemy
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risikerer de at få en fjende mere
05:24
and ending up diplomatically isolated.
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og ender diplomatisk isoleret.
05:26
This issue isn't just theoretical.
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Dette problem er ikke blot teoretisk.
05:28
In May 2007, Estonia was the victim of cyberattacks,
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I maj 2007 var Estland offer for cyberangreb,
05:30
that damaged its communication
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der beskadiget deres kommunikations-
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and banking systems.
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og banksystemer.
05:35
Estonia accused Russia.
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Estland beskyldte Rusland.
05:37
But NATO, though it defends Estonia,
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Men NATO, selvom de forsvarer Estland,
05:39
reacted very prudently. Why?
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reagerede med forsigtighed. Hvorfor?
05:41
Because NATO couldn't be 100% sure
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Fordi NATO ikke kunne være 100% sikker på
05:43
that the Kremlin was indeed behind these attacks.
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at Kreml faktisk stod bag disse angreb.
05:48
So to sum up, on the one hand,
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For at opsummere, på den ene side
05:51
when a possible enemy announces
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Når en mulig fjende annoncerer
05:53
they're building a cyberwar unit,
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de opbygger en cyberkrigsenhed,
05:55
you don't know whether it's for attack
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ved du ikke, om det er for angreb
05:57
or defense.
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eller forsvar.
05:58
On the other hand,
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På den anden side
05:59
we know that these weapons give an advantage to attacking.
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Vi ved, at disse våben give en fordel ved at angribe.
06:03
In a major article published in 1978,
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I en større artikel offentliggjort i 1978,
06:06
Professor Robert Jervis of Columbia University in New York
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hvor professor Robert Jervis fra Columbia University i New York
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described a model to understand
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beskrev en model til at forstå
06:10
how conflicts could arise.
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hvordan konflikter kunne opstå.
06:12
In this context,
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I denne sammenhæng
06:15
when you don't know if the potential enemy
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når du ikke ved om den potentielle fjende
06:17
is preparing for defense or attack,
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forbereder sig for forsvar eller angreb,
06:20
and if the weapons give an advantage to attacking,
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og hvis våbnene giver en fordel ved at angribe,
06:22
then this environment is
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så vil dette miljø
06:24
most likely to spark a conflict.
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mest sandsynligt udløse en konflikt.
06:28
This is the environment that's being created
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Dette er det miljø, som er skabt
06:30
by cyber weapons today,
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ved cybervåben i dag
06:32
and historically it was the environment in Europe
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og historisk det var miljøet i Europa
06:35
at the onset of World War I.
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ved påbegyndelsen af første verdenskrig.
06:39
So cyber weapons
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Så cybervåben
06:41
are dangerous by nature,
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er farlige karakter af natur,
06:43
but in addition, they're emerging
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men derudover udvikler de sig
06:46
in a much more unstable environment.
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i et meget mere ustabilt miljø.
06:48
If you remember the Cold War,
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Hvis du kan huske den kolde krig,
06:50
it was a very hard game,
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Det var et meget hårdt spil,
06:52
but a stable one played only by two players,
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men et stabilt et spillet af kun af to aktører,
06:54
which allowed for some coordination between the two superpowers.
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hvilket tillod noget koordinering mellem de to supermagter.
06:57
Today we're moving to a multipolar world
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I dag bevæger vi os til en multipolær verden
07:02
in which coordination is much more complicated,
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hvori koordinering er langt mere kompliceret,
07:03
as we have seen at Copenhagen.
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som vi har set i København.
07:06
And this coordination may become even trickier
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Og denne koordinering kan blive endnu vanskeligere
07:09
with the introduction of cyber weapons.
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med indførelsen af cybervåben.
07:12
Why? Because no nation
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Hvorfor? Fordi ingen nation
07:14
knows for sure whether its neighbor
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med sikkerhed ved om sin nabo
07:17
is about to attack.
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er ved at angribe.
07:19
So nations may live under the threat
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Så kan nationer må leve under truslen
07:21
of what Nobel Prize winner Thomas Schelling
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af hvad nobelpristager Thomas Schelling
07:24
called the "reciprocal fear of surprise attack,"
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kaldet "gensidighed frygt for et overraskelsesangreb"
07:26
as I don't know if my neighbor
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hvor jeg ikke ved om min nabo
07:28
is about to attack me or not --
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er ved at angribe mig eller ej--
07:30
I may never know --
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Jeg kan aldrig vide--
07:32
so I might take the upper hand
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så jeg kan udnytte fordelen ved
07:34
and attack first.
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at angribe først.
07:37
Just last week,
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Netop i sidste uge,
07:39
in a New York Times article dated January 26, 2010,
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i en artikel i New York Times dateret 26 januar 2010,
07:43
it was revealed for the first time that
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Det blev afsløret for første gang
07:45
officials at the National Security Agency
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embedsmænd på National Security Agency
07:48
were considering the possibility of preemptive attacks
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overvejede muligheden for forebyggende angreb
07:52
in cases where the U.S. was about
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i tilfælde, hvor USA risikerede
07:55
to be cyberattacked.
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at blive udsat for cyberangreb.
07:58
And these preemptive attacks
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Og disse forebyggende angreb
08:00
might not just remain
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forbliver måske ikke blot
08:01
in cyberspace.
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i cyberspace.
08:05
In May 2009, General Kevin Chilton,
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I maj 2009, General Kevin Chilton,
08:10
commander of the U.S. nuclear forces,
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kommandør af de amerikanske atomvåbenstyrker,
08:13
stated that in the event of cyberattacks against the U.S.,
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erklæret, at i tilfælde af et cyberangreb mod USA,
08:18
all options would be on the table.
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ville alle muligheder være på bordet.
08:21
Cyber weapons do not replace
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Cybervåben erstatter ikke
08:23
conventional or nuclear weapons --
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konventionelle eller nukleare våben--
08:25
they just add a new layer to the existing system of terror.
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de tilføje blot et nyt lag til det eksisterende trusselssystem.
08:30
But in doing so, they also add their own risk
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Men dermed de også tilføje deres egen risiko
08:33
of triggering a conflict --
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for at udløse en konflikt--
08:35
as we've just seen, a very important risk --
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som vi netop har set, en meget vigtig risiko--
08:37
and a risk we may have to confront
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og en risiko vi kan imødegå
08:39
with a collective security solution
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med en kollektiv sikkerhedsløsning
08:42
which includes all of us:
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hvilket omfatter os alle:
08:44
European allies, NATO members,
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Europæiske allierede, NATO-medlemmer,
08:46
our American friends and allies,
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vores Amerikanske venner og allierede,
08:48
our other Western allies,
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vores andre vestlige allierede,
08:50
and maybe, by forcing their hand a little,
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og måske ved at tvinge deres hånd lidt,
08:52
our Russian and Chinese partners.
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vores russiske og kinesiske partnere.
08:55
The information technologies
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Informationsteknologierne
08:57
Joël de Rosnay was talking about,
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Joël de Rosnay talte om,
08:59
which were historically born from military research,
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som historisk blev født fra militær forskning,
09:01
are today on the verge of developing
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i dag er på nippet til at udvikle
09:03
an offensive capability of destruction,
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en offensiv kapacitet for ødelæggelse,
09:06
which could tomorrow, if we're not careful,
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som i morgen, hvis vi ikke passer på,
09:10
completely destroy world peace.
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helt kan ødelægge freden i verden.
09:13
Thank you.
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Tak.
09:15
(Applause)
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(Bifald)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Guy-Philippe Goldstein - AuthorGuy-Philippe Goldstein is the author of Babel Minute Zero, a novel that examines the reality of cyberwar in our current geopolitical topography.
Why you should listen
By day, Guy-Philippe Goldstein is a management consultant. At night, he writes gripping political thrillers treating of cyberwar. He's a graduate of France’s prestigious Hautes Études Commerciales, and has an MBA from Northwestern University. Babel Minute Zero is his first novel.
Guy-Philippe Goldstein | Speaker | TED.com