TEDxParis 2010
Guy-Philippe Goldstein: How cyberattacks threaten real-world peace
Guy-Philippe Goldstein: Kako virtualni napadi ugrožavaju mir stvarnog svijeta
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Sve više i više država vode napade s virtualnim oružjem -- tihim udarcima na računalne sustave drugih država koji ne ostavljaju nikakve tragove. (Sjetite se Stuxnet crva). Na TEDxParis, Guy-Philippe Goldstein pokazuje kako virtualni napadi mogu uskočiti između digitalnog i stvarnog svijeta i potaknuti oružane sukobe -- i kako možemo izbjeći ovu opasnost za globalnu sigurnost.
Guy-Philippe Goldstein - Author
Guy-Philippe Goldstein is the author of Babel Minute Zero, a novel that examines the reality of cyberwar in our current geopolitical topography. Full bio
Guy-Philippe Goldstein is the author of Babel Minute Zero, a novel that examines the reality of cyberwar in our current geopolitical topography. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Good afternoon.
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Dobar dan.
00:16
If you have followed
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Ako ste pratili
00:18
diplomatic news in the past weeks,
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diplomatske vijesti zadnjih tjedana,
00:20
you may have heard of a kind of crisis
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možda ste čuli za jednu vrstu krize
00:22
between China and the U.S.
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između Kine i SAD-a
00:24
regarding cyberattacks
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koja se odnosi na virtualne napade
00:26
against the American company Google.
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na američku tvrtku Google.
00:28
Many things have been said about this.
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Mnogo je stvari rečeno o ovome.
00:30
Some people have called a cyberwar
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Neki su nazvali virtualnim ratom
00:32
what may actually be
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ono što zapravo može biti
00:34
just a spy operation --
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samo špijunska operacija --
00:36
and obviously, a quite mishandled one.
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i to očito, krivo vođena.
00:38
However, this episode reveals
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Međutim, ovaj slučaj pokazuje
00:41
the growing anxiety in the Western world
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rastuću anksioznost u Zapadnom svijetu
00:43
regarding these emerging cyber weapons.
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glede nastajućeg virtualnog oružja.
00:46
It so happens that these weapons are dangerous.
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Čini se da je ovo oružje opasno.
00:48
They're of a new nature:
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Nove je prirode
00:50
they could lead the world
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i moglo bi odvesti svijet
00:52
into a digital conflict
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u virtualni sukob
00:54
that could turn into an armed struggle.
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koji bi mogao prerasti u oružanu borbu.
00:56
These virtual weapons can also destroy the physical world.
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Ovo virtualno oružje također može uništiti i fizički svijet.
01:01
In 1982, in the middle of the Cold War
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1982. godine usred hladnog rata
01:04
in Soviet Siberia,
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u Sovjetskom Sibiru
01:06
a pipeline exploded with a burst of 3 kilotons,
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cijev je eksplodirala praskom od tri kilotona,
01:10
the equivalent of a fourth of the Hiroshima bomb.
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što je jednako četvrtini praska bombe bačene na Hiroshimu.
01:12
Now we know today -- this was revealed
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Danas znamo -- to je otkrio
01:14
by Thomas Reed,
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Thomas Reed,
01:16
Ronald Reagan's former U.S. Air Force Secretary --
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bivši tajnik zračnih snaga SAD-a Ronalda Reagana --
01:18
this explosion was actually the result
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da je ta eksplozija zapravo rezultat
01:21
of a CIA sabotage operation,
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CIA-ine sabotažne operacije,
01:23
in which they had managed
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u kojoj su se uspijeli
01:25
to infiltrate the IT management systems
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ubaciti u sustav upravljanja
01:27
of that pipeline.
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tog cijevovoda.
01:29
More recently, the U.S. government revealed
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Nedavno je vlada SAD-a otkrila
01:32
that in September 2008, more than 3 million people
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da je u rujnu 2008., više od tri milijuna ljudi
01:35
in the state of Espirito Santo in Brazil
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u državi Espirito Santo u Brazilu
01:38
were plunged into darkness,
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progutao mrak
01:40
victims of a blackmail operation from cyber pirates.
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kao žrtve ucjene virtualnih pirata.
01:45
Even more worrying for the Americans,
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Ono što još više zabrinjava Amerikance
01:47
in December 2008 the holiest of holies,
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jest da je u prosincu 2008., najsvetiji od svetih,
01:50
the IT systems of CENTCOM,
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sustav upravljanja CENTCOM-om,
01:52
the central command
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središnji voditelj naredba
01:54
managing the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan,
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za rat u Iraku i Afganistanu
01:57
may have been infiltrated by hackers
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je možda bio infiltriran hakerima
01:59
who used these:
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koji su koristili sljedeće:
02:02
plain but infected USB keys.
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obični, ali zaraženi USB.
02:04
And with these keys, they may have been able
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I s tim USB-om su možda uspjeli
02:06
to get inside CENTCOM's systems,
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ući u CENTCOM-ove sisteme,
02:08
to see and hear everything,
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vidjeti i čuti sve,
02:10
and maybe even infect some of them.
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i možda i zaraziti poneki.
02:12
As a result, the Americans take the threat very seriously.
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Kao rezultat, Amerikanci shvaćaju ovu prijetnju jako ozibljno.
02:14
I'll quote General James Cartwright,
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Citirat ću generala Jamesa Cartwrighta,
02:16
Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,
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potpredsjenika združenog stožera američke vojske,
02:18
who says in a report to Congress
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koji u izvješću Kongresu
02:20
that cyberattacks could be as powerful as
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kaže da bi virtualni napadi mogli biti moćni
02:23
weapons of mass destruction.
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koliko i oružje za masovno uništenje.
02:26
Moreover, the Americans have decided
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Štoviše, Amerikanci su odlučili
02:28
to spend over 30 billion dollars
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potrošiti preko 30 milijardi dolara
02:30
in the next five years
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u sljedećih pet godina
02:32
to build up their cyberwar capabilities.
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da izgrade svoje kapacitete za virtualni rat.
02:34
And across the world today, we see
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I diljem svijeta danas, vidimo
02:36
a sort of cyber arms race,
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neku vrstu utrke u virtualnom naoružanju,
02:39
with cyberwar units
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s postrojenjima za virtualni rat
02:41
built up by countries like North Korea
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izgrađenima u zemljama kao što su Sjeverna Koreja
02:43
or even Iran.
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ili čak Iran.
02:44
Yet, what you'll never hear
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Ipak, ono što nikada nećete čuti
02:46
from spokespeople
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od glasnogovornika
02:48
from the Pentagon or the French Department of Defence
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Pentagona ili francuskog Ministarstva obrane,
02:51
is that the question isn't really
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jest da pitanje nije
02:53
who's the enemy, but actually
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tko je neprijatelj, nego
02:55
the very nature of cyber weapons.
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priroda virtualnog oružja.
02:58
And to understand why, we must look at how,
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Da bi razumijeli zašto, moramo pogledati kako su
03:00
through the ages, military technologies
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tijekom vremena vojne tehnologije
03:03
have maintained or destroyed
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održavale ili uništavale
03:05
world peace.
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svjetski mir.
03:08
For example,
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Na primjer,
03:10
if we'd had TEDxParis
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da smo imali TEDxParis
03:11
350 years ago,
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prije 350 godina,
03:13
we would have talked about the military innovation of the day --
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pričali bismo o tadašnjim novostima u oružju --
03:16
the massive Vauban-style fortifications --
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masivne utvrde u Vauban stilu --
03:19
and we could have predicted
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i mogli bismo predvidjeti
03:21
a period of stability in the world or in Europe.
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razdoblje stabilnosti u svijetu ili u Europi,
03:24
which was indeed the case in Europe
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što je stvarno i bilo u Europi
03:27
between 1650 and 1750.
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između 1650-te i 1750-te.
03:29
Similarly, if we'd had this talk
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Slično, da smo imali ovaj razgovor
03:32
30 or 40 years ago, we would have seen
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prije 30 ili 40 godina, mogli bismo vidjeti
03:35
how the rise of nuclear weapons,
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kako uspon nuklearnog oružja
03:37
and the threat of mutually assured destruction they imply,
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i opasnost od uzajamno sigurnog uništenja koje to oružje podrazumijeva,
03:41
prevents a direct fight between the two superpowers.
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spriječava izravan sukob između dvije supersile.
03:45
However, if we'd had this talk 60 years ago,
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Međutim, da smo imali ovaj govor prije 60 godina,
03:47
we would have seen how the emergence
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mogli bismo vidjeli kako pojava
03:50
of new aircraft and tank technologies,
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novih zrakoplova i tenkovskih tehnologija
03:53
which give the advantage to the attacker,
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koje daju prednost napadaču
03:56
make the Blitzkrieg doctrine very credible
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čine Blitzkrieg doktrinu vrlo uvjerljivom
03:59
and thus create the possibility of war in Europe.
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i tako tvore mogućnost rata u Europi.
04:02
So military technologies
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Dakle vojne tehnologije
04:04
can influence the course of the world,
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mogu utjecati na smjer svijeta,
04:06
can make or break world peace --
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mogu stvoriti ili razbiti svijetski mir --
04:08
and there lies the issue with cyber weapons.
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i tu leži problem virtualnog oružja.
04:10
The first issue:
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Prvi problem:
04:12
Imagine a potential enemy announcing
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Zamislite potencijalnog neprijatelja koji najavljuje
04:15
they're building a cyberwar unit,
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da gradi postrojenje za virtualni rat,
04:17
but only for their country's defense.
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ali samo za obranu svoje zemlje.
04:19
Okay, but what distinguishes it
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Dobro, ali što ju razlikuje
04:22
from an offensive unit?
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od postrojenja za napad?
04:24
It gets even more complicated
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Postaje još kompliciranije
04:26
when the doctrines of use become ambiguous.
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kada princip korištenja postane nejasan.
04:30
Just 3 years ago, both the U.S. and France
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Prije samo tri godine SAD i Francuska
04:34
were saying they were investing militarily in cyberspace,
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su govorile da ulažu naoružanje u virtualni prostor,
04:38
strictly to defend their IT systems.
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izričito da bi obranili svoje sustave upravljanja -- IT sisteme.
04:41
But today both countries say
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Ali danas obje države govore
04:44
the best defense is to attack.
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da je napad najbolja obrana.
04:46
And so, they're joining China,
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I tako se pridružuju Kini,
04:48
whose doctrine of use for 15 years has been
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čiji je princip djelovanja tijekom 15 godina bio
04:52
both defensive and offensive.
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i defenzivan i ofenzivan.
04:55
The second issue:
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Drugi problem:
04:57
Your country could be under cyberattack
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Vaša zemlja bi mogla biti pod virtualnim napadom
05:01
with entire regions plunged into total darkness,
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i s cijelim regijama nestati u tami,
05:04
and you may not even know
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i možete ni ne znati
05:06
who's attacking you.
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tko vas napada.
05:08
Cyber weapons have this peculiar feature:
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Virtualno oružje ima ovu svojstvenu osobitost:
05:10
they can be used
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može biti upotrijebljeno
05:12
without leaving traces.
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bez ostavljanja tragova.
05:13
This gives a tremendous advantage to the attacker,
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Ovo daje ogromnu prednost napadaču
05:15
because the defender
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jer branitelj
05:17
doesn't know who to fight back against.
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ne zna protiv koga se bori.
05:19
And if the defender retaliates against the wrong adversary,
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I ako se branitelj osveti pogrešnom napadaču,
05:21
they risk making one more enemy
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riskira da si stvori još jednog neprijatelja
05:24
and ending up diplomatically isolated.
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i ostane diplomatski izoliran.
05:26
This issue isn't just theoretical.
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Ovaj primjer nije samo teoretski.
05:28
In May 2007, Estonia was the victim of cyberattacks,
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U svibnju 2007., Estonija je bila žrtva virtualnog napada
05:30
that damaged its communication
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koji je oštetio njene komunikacije
05:33
and banking systems.
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i bankarske sisteme.
05:35
Estonia accused Russia.
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Estonija je optužila Rusiju.
05:37
But NATO, though it defends Estonia,
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Ali NATO, iako brani Estoniju,
05:39
reacted very prudently. Why?
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je reagirao jako promišljeno. Zašto?
05:41
Because NATO couldn't be 100% sure
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Zato što NATO nije mogao biti 100% siguran
05:43
that the Kremlin was indeed behind these attacks.
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da je Kremlin stvarno stajao iza tih napada.
05:48
So to sum up, on the one hand,
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Dakle da skratimo -- u jednu ruku,
05:51
when a possible enemy announces
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kada mogući neprijatelj objavi
05:53
they're building a cyberwar unit,
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da gradi postrojenje za virtualni rat,
05:55
you don't know whether it's for attack
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ne znate je li to za napad
05:57
or defense.
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ili obranu.
05:58
On the other hand,
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U drugu ruku,
05:59
we know that these weapons give an advantage to attacking.
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znamo da ovo oružje daje prednost pri napadu.
06:03
In a major article published in 1978,
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U velikom članku objavljenom 1978.,
06:06
Professor Robert Jervis of Columbia University in New York
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profesor Robert Jervis sa sveučilišta Kolumbija u New Yorku
06:08
described a model to understand
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opisao je model da bi shvatio
06:10
how conflicts could arise.
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kako bi sukob mogao nastati.
06:12
In this context,
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U ovom kontekstu,
06:15
when you don't know if the potential enemy
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kada ne znate priprema li se potencijalni neprijatelj
06:17
is preparing for defense or attack,
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za obranu ili napad
06:20
and if the weapons give an advantage to attacking,
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i ako oružje daje prednost pri napadu,
06:22
then this environment is
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onda je ovo okruženje
06:24
most likely to spark a conflict.
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vrlo podložno za pojavu sukoba.
06:28
This is the environment that's being created
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To je okruženje koje danas nastaje
06:30
by cyber weapons today,
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zbog virtualnog oružja
06:32
and historically it was the environment in Europe
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i povijesno takvo je okruženje bilo i u Europi
06:35
at the onset of World War I.
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na početku Prvog svjetkog rata.
06:39
So cyber weapons
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Dakle virtualno oružje
06:41
are dangerous by nature,
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je po prirodi opasno,
06:43
but in addition, they're emerging
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ali u dodatku, pojavljuje se
06:46
in a much more unstable environment.
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u puno nestabilnijem okruženju.
06:48
If you remember the Cold War,
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Ako se sjećate Hladnog rata,
06:50
it was a very hard game,
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bila je to vrlo teška igra,
06:52
but a stable one played only by two players,
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ali stabilna i igrana samo od strane dva igrača,
06:54
which allowed for some coordination between the two superpowers.
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što je donekle dopustilo koordinaciju između dvije supersile.
06:57
Today we're moving to a multipolar world
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Danas se selimo u multipolaran svijet
07:02
in which coordination is much more complicated,
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u kojem je koordinacija puno kompliciranija,
07:03
as we have seen at Copenhagen.
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kao što smo vidjeli u Kopenhagenu.
07:06
And this coordination may become even trickier
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I ova koorodinacija može postati još kompliciranija
07:09
with the introduction of cyber weapons.
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uvodom virtualnog oružja.
07:12
Why? Because no nation
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Zašto? Zato što nijedna nacija
07:14
knows for sure whether its neighbor
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nije posve sigurna hoće li je susjed
07:17
is about to attack.
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napasti.
07:19
So nations may live under the threat
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Države mogu živjeti pod prijetnjom
07:21
of what Nobel Prize winner Thomas Schelling
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od, kako je to dobitnik Nobelove nagrade, Thomas Schelling
07:24
called the "reciprocal fear of surprise attack,"
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nazvao, „obostran strah od iznenadnog napada“:
07:26
as I don't know if my neighbor
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jer ne znam sprema li se moj susjed
07:28
is about to attack me or not --
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napasti me ili ne --
07:30
I may never know --
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možda nikada neću znati --
07:32
so I might take the upper hand
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pa mogu prvi povući potez
07:34
and attack first.
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i prvi napasti.
07:37
Just last week,
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Prošli tjedan,
07:39
in a New York Times article dated January 26, 2010,
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u članku u New York Timesu objavljenom 26. siječnja 2010.
07:43
it was revealed for the first time that
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po prvi put je otkriveno
07:45
officials at the National Security Agency
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da su službenici u Nacionalnoj agenciji za sigurnost
07:48
were considering the possibility of preemptive attacks
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razmatrali mogućnost preventivnih napada
07:52
in cases where the U.S. was about
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u slučaju da će SAD biti
07:55
to be cyberattacked.
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virtualno napadnut.
07:58
And these preemptive attacks
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I ti preventivni napadi
08:00
might not just remain
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možda ne ostanu
08:01
in cyberspace.
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samo u virtualnom prostoru.
08:05
In May 2009, General Kevin Chilton,
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U svibnju 2009., general Kevin Chilton,
08:10
commander of the U.S. nuclear forces,
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zapovjednik američkih nuklearnih snaga
08:13
stated that in the event of cyberattacks against the U.S.,
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naveo je da će u slučaju virtualnog napada protiv SAD-a,
08:18
all options would be on the table.
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sve opcije biti otvorene.
08:21
Cyber weapons do not replace
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Virtualno oružje ne zamjenjuje
08:23
conventional or nuclear weapons --
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konvencionalno ili nuklearno oružje --
08:25
they just add a new layer to the existing system of terror.
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samo dodaje novi sloj postojećem sustavu terora.
08:30
But in doing so, they also add their own risk
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Ali pri tome također dodaje vlastiti rizik
08:33
of triggering a conflict --
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poticanja sukoba --
08:35
as we've just seen, a very important risk --
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kao što smo upravo vidjeli, vrlo važan rizik --
08:37
and a risk we may have to confront
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i rizik s kojim ćemo se morati suočiti
08:39
with a collective security solution
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s kolektivnim sigurnosnim rješenjem
08:42
which includes all of us:
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koje uključuje sve nas:
08:44
European allies, NATO members,
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europske saveznike, članove NATO-a,
08:46
our American friends and allies,
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američke prijatelje i saveznike,
08:48
our other Western allies,
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druge zapadne saveznike
08:50
and maybe, by forcing their hand a little,
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i možda, primorajući ih malo,
08:52
our Russian and Chinese partners.
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naše ruske i kineske partnere.
08:55
The information technologies
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Informacijske tehnologije
08:57
Joël de Rosnay was talking about,
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o kojima je Joël De Rosnay pričao,
08:59
which were historically born from military research,
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koje su povijesno stvorene iz vojnih istraživanja
09:01
are today on the verge of developing
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danas su na granici razvitka
09:03
an offensive capability of destruction,
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napadačkih kapaciteta uništenja,
09:06
which could tomorrow, if we're not careful,
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koji bi sutra mogli, ako ne budemo pazili,
09:10
completely destroy world peace.
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potpuno uništiti svjetski mir.
09:13
Thank you.
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Hvala Vam.
09:15
(Applause)
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( Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Guy-Philippe Goldstein - AuthorGuy-Philippe Goldstein is the author of Babel Minute Zero, a novel that examines the reality of cyberwar in our current geopolitical topography.
Why you should listen
By day, Guy-Philippe Goldstein is a management consultant. At night, he writes gripping political thrillers treating of cyberwar. He's a graduate of France’s prestigious Hautes Études Commerciales, and has an MBA from Northwestern University. Babel Minute Zero is his first novel.
Guy-Philippe Goldstein | Speaker | TED.com